Oh, we had some disastrous news this morning. The good news, though, is there's still a coupon on building your wealth that you could use before 4 20, when the price goes up with all that inflation we're seeing the price is gon na go up. Oh my gosh. I don't know if the market can take any more of this bad news.

Oh wait! Apparently it can because even though we just had terrible news, it seems like the market's actually flat. Now we could probably listen to what jamie dimon said this morning, which is quote: there's almost no chance. You won't have volatile markets this year and say yeah jamie we've known that since about january we've known that 2022 was gon na suck. But we got to talk about two big things and that's ppi numbers that just came out and the jp morgan earnings.

What are they telling us and, of course, how are markets actually reacting this morning? So first, oh man, the ppi like, if you were happy about lower core cpi. Yesterday, okay, we basically kind of just got a rug pulled and i'm like i'm basically in tears because uh we had ppi final demand uh up 1.4 in march. That is substantially higher than the 1.1 percent we were expecting and if you strip out food energy and trade services which trade services have been inflating it at a relatively low number anyway, so uh it's really stripping out food and energy. Here, that's the big deal.

We were expecting ppi to come in at this producer price index at a half percent, actually in line with cpi, but it actually came in at 0.9, so almost double the expectation. So this is pretty bad and as soon as we saw this, we saw futures relatively tank like the spy and qqq came straight down after this ppi report, because they started rallying in pre-market and futures started rallying because of those cpi numbers that we had yesterday. That came in better than expected, uh, at least in the core division right headline was miserable and terrible, but uh. This ppi is, is almost just like a straight up: rug, pull it's like yep, yep, nope, you're not allowed to have that or you're not allowed to have good news for more than a day or actually like half of a day, uh in uh in this environment, Which is a disaster, but let's talk about the jp, morgan, earnings and uh, and then let's also talk about how the market's reacting, i will say, i did go through a lot of the ppi report here.

There's really, let me put it this way. There's really nothing great to look at like if you go through the individual categories. They're all terrible they're like there just really aren't great sections to look at here, they're. Just all up uh now pp the market seemed to weigh ppi a little bit less importantly than cpi, but uh.

Some say that ppi leads cpi. That is first producer. Prices get hit and consumer prices, don't worry, they'll follow and you'll end up getting higher months, uh coming after a high ppi report, so not great. So let's hit jpm so jp morgan, i'm just going to give some of my favorite highlights that i wrote down here.

Equities trading was down seven percent year over year, uh the revenue still came in higher than expected, though so, in other words, people are trading less, but uh revenue for the companies is still coming in higher than expected. A bond trading obviously coming in a little bit lower than expectations as well. That's not a surprise uh now, what's very interesting, though, is uh, or some of these things here is uh. Reports from jp morgan, specifically on the following.

The bank is expecting modest growth in deposits. I thought that was quite fascinating. That's a note that i wrote down, but they're actually expecting deposit like deposits into their savings and checking accounts to go up over the next three months. They mention that they're, seeing a pickup in travel and dining, especially in the corporate sector.

That's another good thing that is sort of reiterating what we saw yesterday in cpi, which showed that rental, cars, hotels and air travel were up substantially, obviously mortgages down, not a surprise that mortgages are coming down, asked about inflation and uh the the concerns about a potential Recession, jamie dimon kind of punted on this basically said. Look ultimately, nobody knows they think that a recession is possible, but they are not expecting a recession. This is from the ceo of jpmorgan uh, the they said they saw a robust return to travel and expenses uh. This uh expense spend in the corporate card world, so positive trends in consumer spending for travel and dining and positive growth in travel and just overall expenses for corporations.

But remember see - and this is one of the frustrating things about consumer spend as much as i want to see - that consumers and businesses are still spending money. I'm not kidding myself and i realize that if let's say you're going to go through a recession - and you know, recession is below this red line, the peak spend does tend to come before that right. We just want to make sure that this stays higher and if it does soften, then it doesn't fall substantially because otherwise you you do hit those negative year-over-year numbers, but so far that doesn't actually seem like what what there's there's any concern of that right now in The jpm earnings call they do talk about obviously significant threats from and headwinds from inflation and war. Uh though they are optimistic now, despite all of this sort of you know some good news, some bad news from jpm, which is like hey spending, seems up, but we're uncertain about going forward right, uh, take a look at how markets are reacting, specifically the bond market, Which we looked at this yesterday as well, and we got bad news today yet despite getting bad news on ppi, i'm kind of blown away.

Oh and quick note this video is brought to you by ftx make sure to go to medkevin.com ftxus to get free crypto when you trade, crypto using ftx and incorporate the trading view. Services for ftx the five-year break even is ticking down a little bit. The 10-2 curve is steepening, it's it's getting higher, less less chance of a recession right and the 10-year yield is falling. So you know i don't know if the bond market's just confused or if the bond market cares more about cpi than ppi.

But i'll tell you. After yesterday and today, both bad reports, which we did expect that both of the reports were going to be bad. I did not expect good news in cpi yesterday at all, and we did expect that both of these were going to be miserable. That both of these could be the signal of peak inflation.

Who knows? Maybe this is uh but uh uh. You know this. Ppi news is bad and despite it we're we're still getting the bond market pricing in actually good signals. Now, here's qqq it's pretty much flat.

Uh here's that 23.6 line - it would be very bad if we broke through this today. I don't. I don't know that we will based on the fact that we're seeing the bond market price in more of that optimism again, so the market just opened and uh. Who knows we'll obviously want to keep an eye on this, but uh? This 23.6 line so far has been very, very, very robust on the qqq and uh.

The stock market could be weighing the fact that the bond market's, like no okay, we're kind of we, we expected ppi to be bad, that's kind of what i'm feeling here, even though i i when i read the ppi report, i'm like oh my gosh. This is terrible. This is like a rug, pull uh, it's it's bad. The ppi report i hate to say it, but it does increase uh the odds of looking at a 50 bp hike in may uh.

Although i have said before, like i really don't care, if they hike 50, it's like please go back to two percent like just just make it happen already uh. I i really as long as people continue to spend and the consumer continues to spend. We should be okay in averting a recession, and that is what we're seeing the bond market tell us. But again, who knows so, let's take a look at some individual things that are doing well, usually, when you get a high inflation print like this, you end up having things like mp.

Materials do quite well. Mp, materials has been trending down a little bit here recently and it's possible that - and this is one of the reasons i'm not in mp right now - is it's possible that the market's kind of pre-trading a peak in inflation right and that's that potentially at the beginning Of april, we're like okay, everybody's getting into the materials trades because of peak inflation concerns, and then it's like all right, we're going to hit our peak in april, like let's trade out of these things. This is why sometimes it hurts to get into these trades late, because even lithium-americans you're also seeing that sort of downtrend uh. So, on the day, though, both of them slightly positive here, costco moving up another 1.09, but you're also kind of starting to get this a little bit of the peaking over here.

So uh look, i mean, i think the big bottom line for this year is this year is just going to straight up suck like if you make money this year, uh, either trading or or just straight up, buy and hodling hey more power to you. That's freaking! Amazing, because the market is just crazy, uh, there's tesla going down about another 1.3 percent, uh lucid sitting down a little bit as well. Let's, let's go ahead and look at some of our big losers here, uh at least that open here and big gainers the airlines that jp morgan report is clearly pushing up that uh leisure sector uh, and we saw that about corporate spend as well from jpm. So, american airlines, united delta dave and buster southwest norwegian carnival this travel sector really in both cpi and the jp morgan calls are, are showing real strength.

You go over to uh the losing sector. You got bed bath and paypal moving down so far, moving down as well and a firm slightly down. So it looks like a lot of our fintech space, not so much liking. What we're seeing here today, anyway, folks there you have it check out the programs on building roof, link down below check out ftx and folks, we'll see in the next.