Hey everyone welcome back to another episode of meet kevin at the market, close okay wow, so i just went on yahoo finance and we're like. Oh we're, we're going to talk about we're going to talk about elon, musk and uh and twitter, and i'm like okay yeah. It's happening with that all day, long and sort of my thoughts about the upside potential, and so on so forth, which really elon musk's reply to ross gerber implies substantially more upside potential for twitter. See previously everybody's been thinking.

Oh you're, going to get your twitter shares liquidated at 54.20 right and it's like that's the cash you get so really. If it's at 49, maybe you'll get five dollars and 20 cents in profit. So about 10, but there's the risk side. The deal doesn't go through and then it falls to like 36 bucks or whatever right, and then you lose a bunch of money, maybe as much as 20.

Well, anyway, uh elon musk this morning replied to a ross gerber on twitter. When ross gerber asked hey. Well, you know what, if we want to keep our shares and uh elon musk reply and said we'll do our best, and that was really interesting because it kind of implies that there could be a lot more upside for twitter. So i'd keep an eye on that.

Now another thing: well, okay, that sort of also then goes back to sort of the yahoo thing. Okay, this is funny at the beginning of the yacht thing, i'm totally thinking oh and they're entering like now we're gon na talk about uh, elon, musk and twitter uh, but first we're gon na talk about how our next guest thinks the market's gon na get worse. Before it gets better - and i'm like - oh, i don't remember saying that but okay uh, but it didn't work it out, uh, because i mean in in fairness. I do think we're we're in store for for pain between now and like the next few days right.

The next catalyst that we have uh, but i really think we're pretty dang near a potential bottom here. You know: we've got: we've uh broke through uh, a triple bounce on the qqq at zero feb 24 feb 8 feb uh feb 24 march 8th march at 14th - and we just actually broke through that on this fear of the fed going 50. Who knows? Are they going to go uh 75 basis points next, uh we've got victory day with russia, allegedly that's going to come, claim victory right on may 9th uh cpi on the 11th, so we got some painful catalysts coming up. So i do think that there's an opportunity to buy there, but i was like wow now we're going to talk about tesla and elon musk and twitter uh, which anyway, we got plenty of that talking in as well, but i'm like wow, okay yeah.

That was interesting. So anyway, i just thought: i'd share that uh. If, if you're wondering where kevin's head is, i just want to be as clear as possible: uh, but anyway, so uh, yeah, okay, look! Obviously, uh today was a pretty ugly start to the market in the day here and uh we're recovering right now we're we're still getting rejected by the zero percent fib line, which you know we're trading right below it right now, which isn't great uh i'll, pull that Up here in just a second here uh once my weeble stops acting up, but but that's okay, who who needs weeble? You know what i'll just restart my weeble there we go, that that solves all problems, restart solve everything, anywho uh, we're we're bouncing off the the 318 line on qqq or the qqq, which is very interesting to watch, because it's first of all, quite a critical level. So uh here we go, let's see there, we go so take a look at this.

This is the one minute chart here and we can see that rejection that we got over here. Uh. The zero percent line is 3 18 8.. We got rejected right around here.

Uh was at 7, 30 or so this morning, and then right now we're literally in the process of getting rejected on the zero percent line, but it really goes to show that the market does not want to be away from the zero percent line. I think it's a bad omen that we're trading below it right now. I think this is bad uh, but it's certainly good that we're already trying to like get back above that line. Who knows, though, end of the day we can.

We tend to get a little bit of institutional selling. Sometimes we get institutional buying, but we'll see what happens. Uh tesla look at this right over its 880 line. Again really nice smooth move right over that 880 this morning, we're sitting at about 8.50.

So almost a 50-point move there on a tesla, a lot of talk by the way right now about redbox redbox, really uh momentuming up a bit here, we're going to grab the terminal and see what the terminal has to say about short interest. But this one appears to be a relatively large momentum play which is very different from blue apron, which uh, which had uh about 70, a 70 billion, sorry million dollar cash infusion, which is huge because i think the market cap of this is like 200 mil or Something like that, let me look really quick. Uh blue apron easiest way to find market cap is literally just type that into google. Oh, it's only 130 million dollar company - that's crazy, but uh we'll see uh red box.

I want to get the short interest stone. We'll have the short interest sheet, so we can pull up a little bit more of what's going on here. Obviously, we've heard that the 10-year treasury today is hitting these uh elevated levels of three percent. This is no surprise.

We've been expecting this to happen. Four months now and i think to some degree part of why we're potentially seeing a little bit of a rally right now is because it's like you know, beginning of the day, it's like, oh, no, we're hitting three percent. Oh no, it's the end of the world and then we hit three percent and it's like that's actually not that bad. Now it sucks for real estate, but uh.

Let's go back to stocks, so uh yeah i mean like whatever man uh. Look, i'm i'm optimistic uh about this uh this all this fear and pain that we've got coming up here, especially with the forecast for cpi actually expected to come in low signaling, a peak in in march, uh boy - i i i don't know i mean this just Seems terribly oversold we're at the zero percent? Essentially so uh we'll see what happens? I wonder if we can, if we could close like i'd, be really bullish. If we could just close above this uh, i don't think we're gon na get. We don't really have enough time to get a five-minute, candlestick full break.

We might if we get over the next three minutes here. If we can break 318 eight and then we stay above it we'll get a full five minute candle above the zero percent, fib and uh that that's that would be bullish. I still think it's a little crazy, though, for people to be buying before the fed meeting, but remember what happened last time. Uh the best time to buy was literally the morning of the fed meeting like market open, 6 30 a.m.

Cali time you buy and you were up like i don't know, i mean we were the nasdaq was up like 10. You know within two weeks thereafter it was crazy. That's not nasdaq! You bought anything else. It was great, so uh.

You know it's possible we're seeing a little bit of front running to that right now that people are looking back on well, the last time the fed had the meeting stocks started, taking off and running afterwards. Who knows? Maybe that's what we're seeing right now uh? I don't know i'm pretty bullish er, so that's kind of exciting uh, all right good. So what else here uh look at that almost four percent now on tesla? How crazy is that yeah? I also do wonder too this uh. All this talk about the fed going for 75 basis points and that i don't really think the market should care as much as it does like you got to realize folks.

Anything under two percent with the fed is still accommodation, it's still stimulus. So, in order for us to actually be constricting the market, we probably have to be around two and a half percent fed funds rate, which is insane because we're so far away from that we're at half half of a percent right now you know 0.25 to half Is where we sit right now, half is the upper bound. You know we're not even fully a path. So uh, really i mean just mind-blowing that the market is, is so upset uh and really if this ends up being a bottom.

I don't know that there are really stocks that you could go wrong with. You know. A lot of people are like. Oh you know, what do you prefer? Uh teledoc tesla robin hood docusign, a firm matterport whatever well, certainly anything that's risk on will probably have just like multiple 10 days in a row, no guarantees.

But the tough thing is like you know: you go in now and you buy a firm at let's say or you bought it at. Let's say 35 thinking. That was the bottom and you know it's at 30 now right but uh. It doesn't take many 10 days to get right past that, in fact, it takes one and a half, so uh we'll see uh, i'm just like very optimistic that uh we like it just we just can't get much worse, uh.

That could be very wrong. You know, if imagine if this recession lasts long, like you know, we keep thinking that recessions are going to be two quarters and then that's it, but we realize you know a recession could be all of 2020 too, like we could be setting just like every comp That we had from 2021, we could literally miss miss, miss miss mcmiss and all of 22 ends up being a recession, and people like i didn't feel like a recession. You know and then finally, inflation goes down supply chains, catch up and we're back to normal, like it's, it's quite crazy, any discount code for your course yeah, it's actually uh back to the moon back to the moon, is the best one. I actually don't know that.

I updated the description, but if you type that in type out the word to to uh, that's that's the best right now i did check uh anyway, we got about 30 seconds left uh on, let's see if we could get to. Oh look at that. It's 318.! It's right there at the line come on man. 3.

18. 80. 3. 18.

80.. We want a full five minute candlestick above it man. I don't think we're gon na be able to pull that off, but we are gon na, be pretty dang close uh. We might end up uh, you know sitting around the the uh in the one minute candlesticks being able to break we'll see it does look like you know, volumes coming in and we're getting green.

So it does look like we're getting an outsized buying pressure versus selling pressure. Thank fricking, goodness uh, it's uh, it's been a ride, sell when kevin is greedy, buy when kevin is fearful. That's interesting because i actually think now's the time to buy and i don't actually think that uh i am fearful right now, like that's, i'm pretty optimistic. I'm like i don't know man.

This is. This is overdone i still think inflation's gon na come down and all that you know nonsense. Uh, it's just gon na take time. That's our expectation! Oh yeah! Okay, let me update this here.

So it's back to the moon. There you go yeah, take advantage of that. Coupon code back to the moon send out the good vibes out there contribute to back to the moon and boom we're gon na make it happen together. So uh, okay, good, let's uh! Let's take a look at that red box short interest on the term here and moas is actually trending on twitter, the mother of all short squeezes, uh and uh.

We'll also take a look at some spreads here just so we can get a little bit of a feeling as to how the market is developing. You know right before the fed meeting in a couple days. The fed meeting actually starts tomorrow. Remember that this is this.

Is really good, though, i'm optimistic about that a little bit of a red candlestick coming into tesla they're, pushing it back to being up just about 3.6 percent discount code, dark side of the moon yeah, i'm excited to see mgm today, absolutely okay box. I need a ticker red box stock rdbx. Oh, i couldn't have guessed rdbx. Redbox is listed as it's only listed as 14.96 percent sure and uh over the last six months.

It's not as high as its short interest was at the end of january sort of beginning of february. We were around 27 percent short, so i actually see like a vast substantial amount of short interest here. 14.96. So it's kind of interesting how much momentum has gone into this one, but i would be very careful like if i were in redbox i would uh i would have.

I would probably have downside limits right so like if i owned it right now. I would set myself a a sell limit and probably a trailing stop honestly, and i don't know i'd probably do like a 10 trailing stop. So that way, i don't get stopped out on like little fluctuations and crap i mean you know one or two percent on a momentum mover is going to happen fast. You just want to protect yourself from the like 80 crash on momentum.

You know so uh, which, which is not a bad idea to do, for options as well to have trailing stops, but uh. You know the market could be so funny, sometimes where you just end up getting stopped out on the way down and then you're not paying attention and you don't rebuy on the way up and it's just uh. Then you miss out. So you know it's there's, there's no, there's no guarantee when you're trading right you just try to make the best decision you can.

With the information that you have available. That's all you can ask for uh. So uh again we are pushing that line here on qqq. Really excited about that, we got to get just a little bit more come on man, 10, more cents, 10, more cents, and we are above that line.

We want to see it close uh uh hold on a sec, wait where's my line 318 hold on a sec. Maybe we already hit it because it kind of looks like we did. Oh look at that. No, no! My zero percent fib is actually 3.

18. 5 8. We were just above it, so we want to close at 3, 18, 5, 8 or about 58. So 3.

18 spot. 5. 8. It's exactly where we are right now right on the zero percent line.

Like i, i don't know how much more of a signal you need to buy the damn dip like you really have to believe that things are just gon na get that much worse and it's possible. You know i mean i look when we were at the 23.6 line, i'm like how could it get worse? Oh well, the fed could suggest doing 75 bp and it's like. Ah thanks it can get worse and that's the thing is it can so like, don't like yolo here and go all into margin and stuff, but uh, you know with cash on the side. This to me is uh is very attractive.

Uh in the valuations of certain companies, especially whether that's uh, etsy or or tesla uh very attractive for the type of growth that we're seeing uh end phase still a little bit on the pricey side. But it's a great company just watching that, because of the real estate market, all right 10 seconds to go, let's see how we're going to close. How are we going to do it and we're going to get the bell? I'm going to turn the bell volume on, but i want to watch the qqq here we go. Can we get 58? I don't know if again, especially for technology, all the big games, except for and amazon joins the party as well as microsoft, leads the triple cube.

That's going to do it for me here on closing bell from the milken conference i'll, send it now into overtime with scott wapner scott all right! Well, we couldn't couldn't keep it above. The zero percent line, so we're just at it. Welcome to zero percent on the fiber trace for the qqq. It is dow jones up point two: six percent s p of point: five: seven percent nasdaq killing it one point: six: three percent of the russell 2000 small cap still lagging way behind only up one third or about 3.34, so way, uh way behind there.

In terms of the nasdaq, but that's not a surprise, i'd much rather have the safety of these large techs that are becoming much more efficient than the risk exposure of some of these small caps that are actually not becoming much more efficient if anything they're having capitalization And funding issues, because the market has turned a lot of them into penny stocks, what a curse! Oh but kevin! Nobody would want to list a penny stock, you're right, you just spec for ten dollars and then you turn into a penny stock. That's how that works! Right, sorry, that's evil! All right we got chag, we got avis, we got expedia, we got a logitech. We got mgm all right, big earnings coming up here. Let's see here: okay, so um mgm, logitech, uh mgm looks like it's a 415 logitech's tonight, that's lame! Why do they do it so late yeah? That's, that's got another five hours to go.

Okay, expedia expedia's in and they reported a gross bookings of 24.41 slight miss on bookings versus the 24.53 expected loss per share was expected to be 43 cents came in slightly worse than expected: 47 cents, uh q1 revenue at expectations, so minor little misses there. Uh. That's not it's not terrible, but it's definitely not a big beat so you're seeing the stock move down about half percent right now, after zebed and zerelis. So waiting for avis and chegg avis, oh adjusted, eps comes in at 9.99 dollars estimate was 3.26.

Let's say that's a huge beat on adjusted eps net revenue comes in with a beat as well: 2.43 billion. The expectation was 2.17 billion. We have a sales beat of 2.4 bill uh. The estimate was 2.11.

This is good. Expedia miss now down about two uh two-ish percent here, but uh uh getting closer to three percent but avis. There. You go.

Look at that. A nice seven percent on avis awesome! Uh, let's see here, then we've got chag yeah, oh clorox reports. Today. Oh, it's soda solar edge.

Oh that'll, be a mover for end phase if they start seeing any leading signs of pain. That'll be something to pay attention to mgm's, obviously going to be a big one: okay, oh i'm kind of excited to see solar edge, solar edge s, edge, okie dokie. There we go so mgm and clorox solar edge, tbd solar edge by the way, has a solar edge solar edge. I was i could find this here.

There we go solar edge by the way is expected to move 12 in either direction. Avis now up, uh 8.9 whoa expedia just moved up, something must have come through here on expedia hold on a second that's odd what'd. They say it must be their forecast, maybe no! No. I actually do not know why, on this slight, miss that all of a sudden, they're jumping - that's a really interesting note.

So we'll keep an eye on that. Okay, a few seconds here, we should get solar edge. Oh there it is solar edge. Coming in now we got revenue of uh, oh slight, miss on adjusted eps 1.2 dollars versus 1.28 expected forecast, good, beat good, beat on the forecast.

That's really good! Uh midpoint is 720 mil the expectation was 691 mil. That's a really good forecast, uh their revenue. Uh q1 revenue was actually better, so they missed on the bottom line, but the top line forecast and top line this quarter. Q1.

655 versus 6434. That's a beat, that's a beat on forecast, that's a beat on the top line, it's a miss on the bottom, but uh forecast and top line good. That's really good! That could be good for end phase. That could be good for uh s edge in face not really moving yet solar edge kind of flat.

Right now, now i'm moving about two percent. Now it's gon na be a little volatile, uh end phase, i don't think, has reacted yet relatively flat here. Obviously they already had their excellent uh earnings. Okay, so mgm tbd clorox expected to move seven percent.

Still, no i'm still curious about why expedia is trading the way it is but we'll take it. We'll take greed. Lady there, okay uh chegg chegg, comes in with a miss uh forecast, uh adjusted fiscal year, ebitda 220 to 235. That puts you at about two.

What is that 27 mil and they were expected to bring in about 265? That's a big miss on forecast net revenue was a rough match, but the forecast is nasty. That is not good on the forecast for check oh check now down about 17. Where do you think the market stands in the macro cycle? Uh? Well, the stock market? I think has has done most of its its suffering already uh. I think that the real estate market is still at the top of the curve, the top right of the curve.

So uh you know the the i don't think there's much more give in the stock market. I could be entirely wrong. Who knows, will you be down another 20 on some of these things? I i don't see it not with how strong underlyings are, but uh we'll see, but yeah. That's a that's an oof there on chat, textbook rental 17.72 down yeah expedia did have earnings expedia slightly missed on their uh, their numbers, but uh they're, actually moving to the upside a lot of positivity there.

Let's see yeah, they missed on their bottom line and the revenue matched waiting for mgm and clorox. Now those are gon na be two more big ones. Yeah, that's solar edge forecast, though really good nice 5.75 over here avis. Now up uh 12.6 percent expedia we're going positive here, five percent see if we got anything else, moving yeah, i don't.

I don't see the forecast yet for expedia and short of me actually going into the dock right now. Usually it comes through. I might yeah i mean it should go fast. If i just hit q2, it should show up right away.

Let's see all right see if there's any guide here on this q2 q2 new credit facility, which provides 500 mil in additional liquidity. Nice also redeemed some senior notes due in june. Okay - ah, don't think they're giving us forecast here. We could pull this up together.

I'll do that, while i wait for uh, clorox and mgm we'll do that all right, let's see all right. So what are we looking for? We are looking for expedia investor relations. No, i don't think small caps going down 70 to 80 percent can happen to the spy. I don't believe it there.

You go all right. So what do we got here? Gross bookings, i mean. That's a that's a substantial increase. I mean look at this 81 increase in revenue here now remember this was this is coming off a q1 which was like the original covid wave.

Still it's so weird to think that one year ago we were still worried about the original covet wave. You know people were just now getting their shots. Clorox beats on net sales, 181 versus 1.79 expected tiny, beat guidance. Miss uh looks like guiding three dollars and roughly 70-ish cents 3.67, something like that and they were expected to be closer to about 390 ish yeah, like 392 roughly was was the expectation.

So that's about a 10. No that's more than that. It's almost a 30 cent. Miss on eps, that's about a 10 miss on eps uh on the uh fiscal year, and the net sales were pretty f pretty much along expectations.

There net sales down one to four percent year over year gross margin still sitting at about 35.9 percent. Let's go see what we got over here. This would be, let's see, clorox and then we'll go back to expedia there oops. That's that's not it clorox uh! Where are we what's? What's that clx yeah clx? No, it is the nyse version.

Yeah yeah! Okay, that's it here, you go down about 2.48. Okay. Next up is mgm and we'll take a little bit more of a look there. At the expedia report, advertising and media revenue increased in the first quarter of 2022, due to increases in both trivago and expedia.

I'm telling you folks, people are going to spend more money on advertising. Nobody wants to hear me saying it yet over and over again, what i said in january is coming true. All the companies are talking about how they're spending more money on ads direct marketing up 141 percent, the delta change here: indirect marketing, not so much up, hmm yeah selling and marketing golly. They they more than doubled their selling and marketing expenses.

This would be interesting. Read just in terms of understanding how uh marketing is changing balance sheet. They got five bill really yeah. They do seven billion of goodwill wow on a 24 billion dollar balance sheet, all right, hmm, all right! Well, uh! So the next one uh.

I don't see a forecast here, so i'm actually a little confused as to why it's it's running the way it is, but maybe we'll find out more on the ernie's call the uh, so clorox slight miss there on forecast and by slide. I guess i mean like a full ten percent. Expedia and avis kicking butt for travel. So i'm optimistic about mgm, but you never know you know you could be excited about, but i don't know someone says: they're surprised that trade desk is so cheap yeah.

Let's do a quick look trade desk in the meantime, somebody wants to see the fibonaccis on the qqq. Yeah sure give me a second all right here. You go it's it's a little small, but roughly you can kind of see the lines there. Zero percent at 318.58 and then 100 at 404.28, okay, now trade desk, so uh trade desk, is about a 30 billion dollar company.

Their net is usually around 28 to 30 percent, they've kind of been growing it, but it can go all over the place. Some people think they're going to go up to like a 35 net margin, which is actually really good for advertising. It's a lot of advertising commissions right and uh revenue expected to grow, probably at an average pace of about 28 to 30 percent over the next five years. So that's a pretty decent revenue growth.

It is a newer company, though it's profitable but you're paying about 70 times earnings on this one. So this is by far my most expensive stock trading for about a two peg. Just because it's two peg doesn't mean that you want to stay away from two pegs, but it does mean that you don't want your entire portfolio full of those higher ones right. So i try to balance out the higher pegs when i have them in my portfolio with lower pegs, like an at sea or a tesla which are trading for closer to like one to one point, four, all right who are they reporting now? The number to watch is gross bookings which came in at let's see if they know why it went up.

That is a gain of 58 year over year, so the demand for travel remains strong, ceo of expedia peter curran, saying there was the early impact from omicron left over left over from late last year. Mgm comes in with a beat revenue, 2.85 versus 2.8 expected i'll, get some more uh, oh yeah, and they also came out profitable versus an estimate of nine cents expected they made a penny since the start of the pandemic. He references some of the challenges like inflation and ongoing geopolitical tensions, but he says we continue to see positive indicators going and mgm down four percent, which we did see: growth in verbo, it's vacation, rental, uh business shares now up over four percent here in overtime, ceo Peter kern will join me, live from las vegas at the company's annual event. All right, that's boring.

Someone else here. Uh pilot poncho here writes uh, essentially happy to be a member. Thank you so much for being here. It's really nice comment.

Hello members finally managed to fix my youtube app store country issues after immigration very happy to give back to kevin and support. You have taught me a lot and made me some good money. Yeah. Well welcome aboard! That's awesome! Okay, mgm uh now actually going positive, which i mean they did beat.

So i don't. I don't know why they would be going negative uh. Also. I don't have a forecast for q2 here yet but uh i will say that uh we're up about one and a quarter percent right now, clorox down five percent chegg is the one that's absolutely getting destroyed here.

Chad, down about 24 right now pretty brutal right here and uh, that was on a uh a full year, revenue guide somewhere around 20 lower than expected again they guided for about 227 mil the expectation was 265.. That's about a 15 percent miss on on revenue there on forecast, so uh, not good. That was chegg, of course, but going back to mgm no q2 info, yet here hmm i'll see if we can both see it together. Let's see here, mgm investor, but it's also not uncommon for a lot of these companies not to report a forecast all right.

So while i wait we'll look here, las vegas strip resorts and regional operations, adjusted ebitda rose lots repurchased, 2.8 billion in shares. She whiz a lot of money. Um see, table games hold just a a table, games revenue up 200 percent, china decrease of nine percent and the decrease of 63 percent from 2019 yeah just getting wrecked in china i mean slowly walk downs, deluded loss per share, six cents, but uh adjusted loss per Share a gain of one cent: oh, how cool look at this table gains win percentage. 24.6.

I did not know they break this out here. Slots win percentage 9.3. I feel like they're like exposing themselves here, so you win 24.6. The percent of the time on table games, but you win nine percent of the time on slots.

So that means you have to play like 11 times to actually win. That's actually really interesting, usually 78 occupied wow. Look. They got the whole written win rate here dollars and millions.

Oh, my gosh uh vip table games win rate 2.4. What win? I? I wonder if this is like. I wonder if i'm re reading the win percent wrong like if this is just like percent of like their total revenue or something like that. That's entirely possible.

So i'll have to check that win rate, because i i can't imagine slots or nine percent and the table games are - are 24. They should be close to like 45, so uh that i i'm gon na put a little asterisk on on this. I'm gon na read through that a little bit more in detail, but really i was looking for uh anything on forecast and we didn't get that clorox falling about four and a half percent solar edge uh up about four point: nine percent really good forecast honestly for The solar manufacturers so happy about that. Chegg was a disaster.

Avis and expedia were okay, both rising and after hours, yeah, yeah, okay, good! So let's go ahead and take a look over here and just see us: it's 100 minus win to get paid yeah. I i have to put my head into that a little deeper, but anyway i will so yeah because it didn't seem right. The win rate just seemed way too low. Otherwise - and i feel like it'd - be like it's like mgm exposed, rigged odds, yeah, probably not going on your earnings report.

They could probably clear that up a little bit again, though, for the people who first look at it, but i'll go through that in more detail. Later, okay, good so volatility index today was pretty crazy folks, 32 in a 32. crazy uh, okay! Well, i think, honestly, that does it check out the programs link down below i'm building long-term wealth specifically make sure you check out that real estate investing one zero to mill and get ready tesla slightly down in after hours sitting at about 901, but comfortably back over The nine and qqq projecting right off of our support line there as uh expected on the zero percent so hoping that we uh. We can flip that, but we'll see anyway, thanks so much for being here folks appreciate you yup still got the little tesla bracelet all right.

Folks, we'll see you bye!.