What's going on, guys, welcome back to the channel! Figured I'd come out here and post a quick video for you guys this morning. Uh, not going to be too long. We already touched on some pretty important topics the other day, which basically revolved around the idea that regardless of news, the market will do what it wants when it wants, as long as it means making money. All right.

So let's uh, get into some more technical stuff, shall we? So I guess we'll start here with this bottom right screen. Uh, pretty excuse me. Pretty clean chart here for the most part. But um, these are just specific volume weighted average price levels that are created from a weekly Vwap.

These are not V waps, but these are the price levels of vaps plotted horizontally as a horizontal support resistance kind of concept. Uh, which would say we have resistance at 43870 and our last breakout was at Uh 437 57. And then we have huge resistance Zone here basically around 442 443. So in the event we were to somehow see the market here over the next couple days, which is would be quite something.

Um, probably not. But if we did then we would never expect to buy long there. We'd expect this thing get smacked, and then it'd actually probably come back down to the most recent weekly Vwb. So um, the reality is actually yeah, if we did see this blow up to here, it would be most likely you would see an event where this tops lower highs and slams all the way back to 43876.

That would probably be one of the first leg moves and then whatever. But anyways, Um, in the immediate, you can't really expect to be anything more long biased than targeting 4 3875. And if again, the market wants to finally give up on this move, you would just pretty much see this flop all the way back to 43749 in the immediate. Obviously, markets could go further than that, etc, etc.

But in the in the immediate, these are two highly probable price points you're going to see the market to to start the day and again either running up to 43876 and probably being met with new resistance and even slamming back to 43749. Um, and or just pulling back to 43749. Um, now side note: The reality is we started this Buy Signal a long time ago. Okay, so we're going to pull up this screen here.

So right now on my chart, you're seeing me talk to you guys about Vws and going to this level and going to that level. Which really isn't straightforward. And you know the reason it's not so straightforward at this point is because again, the Buy Signal started on like Monday I think October 30th or 30. What was it It Let me just double check.

Um yeah, I think it started on the 30th 31st. So anyways, this is where the Buy Signal started. It started right here. right there.

That was the earliest signal of the Buy Signal right there. Now we're we're up here. So this move on the S&P 500 is now up. This morning, we got to what price? 438.

So this morning the market is up to it's up 5.82% on just that Buy Signal alone. That's a huge gain, All right. So again, you already really extended on the Buy Signal. Um, you're coming into more resistance.

You, we keep coming into more resistance that is. Granted, we just broke bounced the 50 SMA yesterday, so we're still in a Buy Signal. We're not quite in a sell signal. Ideally, the easiest thing if you're trying to kind of predict the next short would generally be to wait minimum till you start closing below the 50.

SMA. Um, Otherwise, you're just short in little pullbacks right now that that's really it and you can see how these just kind of pull back. get bought up. pull back, get bought up at the 50.

vice versa. When you're below the 50, you break down, pop Short Pop short and then you break over the 50 and it's push up, dip long again. That's the concept of being over and under the 50 SMA as a short-term positive, negative Trend sentiment. Um, all right so we're in a Buy Signal still.

Uh, the markets can do whatever they want, keep pressing up for as long as they want. You have to remember that everyone is just thinking bearish and thinking short simultaneously because the narrative is in the market. and then simultaneously because this move's gone up so much and then it has all these gaps. Everyone's like basically trying to short this thing and that's exactly why it's not going down.

So we will essentially keep pressing this market up until people basically give up on the idea of trying to pick this top. Now, remember, like I Just said, it's easiest just to wait for the 50 SMA to start closing below and getting a sell signal as opposed to trying to pick a top. See, think about it. Everyone trying to pick a top here keeps getting squeezed out and simultaneously, you're not below the 50.

SMA So you're not in a bearish sell signal. So if you're not in a bearish sell signal and you're selling the top, you shouldn't be expecting a big breakdown move. You should be expecting pullback moves, right? So it's okay to short these tops. If if you're doing intraday scalp bearish intraday pullbacks while knowing you're not actually in a downtrend, then you'd be okay.

But it's those that are trying to pick a top and short this and break it down and roll it that are trying to create the move when the move just isn't there yet. See if you were here and you shorted any of these Pops in this downtrend and held, you would have made bank because again, it's in a sell signal so the direction is favoring your idea and you don't have to try to break it down it's already been broken down versus here you'd be shorting this trap trying to get it to roll over, then come down, break the 50, SMA then break more right? just like you did here yesterday I Know for a fact so many people got swept in this move yesterday and then squeeze back out they shorted down and then once it hit the 50 SMA which is support and we didn't close below, we just rallied it back up right. And for those that don't use the system, didn't know that that's okay. So we are extended right as we already mentioned.

so we are in a Buy Signal Still, we're extended and we keep pressing into long-term weekly resistance zones. and that's why you're starting to see these tops smack top down, top down, push up. get close to resist. So again, we're getting those resistance areas right.

So I always put these weekly vaps on because they can become the top top point that then rolls the market and creates a sell signal. So every Buy Signal I'm always watching Big weekly or big daily resistance zones that I believe could top the market and create the rollover but in the immediate I will only trade them as like intraday moves until it actually creates the cell signal. So I never really try to come in here and pick any of these weekly resist resistance tops and then like try to hold it to roll the market and then go into a sell signal. That's that's pointless because you could just wait for the sell signal to be bearish, right? So again, these are just areas of interest for selling that I assume could create a top but I don't Bank on them to and if they end up doing which one of them eventually will usually then awesome.

And then it creates a sell sign All right. So we know that these are all areas and zones where we could top the market and roll it over. but you know it's just not going to make that big roll until it gets a sell signal right? So like this one here, that's a huge resistance. Zone Like going into here now that's one level I would expect like yeah, you'd be short here and this could create a sell signal.

These ones are like, maybe right? So anyways, that's kind of where we're at. Markets keep pressing up. This video is getting longer. it should I know too much.

Um, you know the other thing we've been watching again the Vix. Look at it. Dude, the vix has been draining out. So same concept like how we were just looking at the the So so this right here.

see how the market oh this is the other one. Is it here? All right? So you can see how the Spy is in an uptrend, right? We're over the 50 we're uptrending. Look at the vix. The Vix 30 minute is downtrending.

Same thing. it's vice versa, right? So if we go and scroll this down a bit, all right, so you can see we have the Vix and there's a sell signal and it's down. It's not over the 30 minute 50. SMA So the Vix is downtrending.

Regardless of every one of these little pops, the Market's downtrending. All right. These pops could create an uptrend, but again, it's not. So it's the same logic of like shorting the tops on the Spy or trying to buy these dips on the vix or whatever.

same thing, right. It's just not ready. So for everyone that's trying to pick these highs and short these highs, we keep pressing you out because you keep trying to do that realistically. Or that's the narrative that that's why.

And then, yeah, you know. So it's like, until this Vix goes into an uptrend, we're not going to get that pullback on the Spy that a lot of people are thinking about. Um, so we're looking for the Vix to eventually get over this 50 SMA And when that does, then we'll have higher probabilities of being able to pull the market back somewhat effectively and efficiently. or to a degree that we would All that would be easier to profit from for that matter.

Um, and then something like this: a 15 minute a 15 minute is like the earliest Trend that I Would consider when it comes to. like, maybe getting into an uptrend, right? So like when we look at this 30-day 50 minute, if you look at the 30-day - minute, it looks very similar to the 30 minute. This is like the earliest time frame that I would use as a precursor to the 30 minutes. So like, for example, the 30 minute dictates the true uptrend downtrend.

But of course, before you go into a 30 minute uptrend, the 15minute would go into an uptrend. So it's like you can look at a 15minute and go, oh, it's in an uptrend and just start assuming that we're going to go and try to start an uptrend on a 30 minute. It might not be successful this time. Maybe it's the next time, But as soon as you start to see the uptrend occurring on the 15, you can start to build that narrative.

That, Okay, we're going to move to the 30 minute now. Maybe it breaks. Maybe it doesn't, but at least now we're closer to it happening. and I can start really shifting that narrative on the market to potential pullback bearishness, right? But we still don't even have it on a 15minute.

So it's like everyone over here is like shorting tops and it's just like we're not even even like not even close to an uptrend on the vix. Which means you're not even close to harsh pullbacks on the Spy. You know what I mean. So we're waiting for the Vix 15, waiting for the Vix 30 to start showing some of those signs of, you know, want to creep into an uptrend.

Um, there's a bunch of other stuff I could go over. Um, you know, for what it's worth. So I mean here's here's some longer term charts: I Mean: looking at some longer terms, the Vix has reverted back to the mean. Now you know we've seen things in the past where the market trades below the mean on the Vix for quite some time, right? Um, and so we're kind of getting back to a low volatility environment.

Um, as opposed to a high volatility environment. and you know. Side note: Look at this right. The Vix: You can see the Vix tops in the blue line.

That's a Plus three standard error. And if we were to take you over to the Spy, you will notice the Spy actually bounced in the minus three standard error. So you're getting uh, reverse Confluence there. Which would basically be the logic that the Vix was coming from an extremely overbought plus three Sigma standard error level.

Um, while the S&P 500 is now bouncing out of a highly valuable -2 daily and or -3 Sigma um, standard air, high value bounce, Point, etc etc. Um, you know. And then if you look at the long-term chart right, you can see that the long-term fair value market price is Uh 446 447, 448. So the six Monon and the oneyear historical fair value trend for the S&P 500 is priced at 446.

So realistically, the market is still oversold in terms of a value perspective. Um, when it how as it relates to like Trend and um, fair value statistical market pricing. Um, so when you think of like oh my gosh, this move has gone up so much like it has to pull back like the reality is like yeah, you'd assume it has to pull back, which it probably does. But either way, aside from it pulling back or not pulling back, it's kind of ir relevant when we're thinking in terms of value and probability.

Value and probability is doesn't relate necessarily like pullbacks. And like this and this area, it's more or less. You want to think of it as like value and you know what prices and probability look like. And right now the prices in this charting perspective and strategy and value tell me that fair value market price is about 446, 447, arguably 450.

That's where the one year fair value trend is. Um, Therefore, it's likely you see prices back to that price point at some point doesn't have to be now. it could be now. But you see what I'm saying like it just makes sense that at some point you would see prices back to these lines unless something detrimental like super bad happens to the market and the market just dies falls apart, then what's going to happen is these fair value prices are going to Trend down right? they would.

They would change course and they'd start trending down. Then the logic would be like downtrend oversold bounce reverts back to the downtrending fair value mean, right? But right now the six month is still up and the one year is actually kind of going flat. Thus, we may assume that this Market tries to get as close as possible back to those levels, right? So you have to man I can just go on for days because I love this stuff. But I mean you're you're into probability analysis at this point in this video and you know it's anyway.

So um, if you read some books and whatever Charlie or yeah, I mean Charlie MERS probably said it. I don't really know for sure. but Burkshire or Warren Buffett definitely has said it. And basically this runs in line with Efficient Efficient Market Hypothesis and beating the markets and basically Efficient Efficient Market Hypothesis goes on to suggests that everything that can possibly be known about a stock or the stock market or any sort of information that can be known known about a publicly traded company in which is traded on public markets and people exchange for, etc, etc.

All the information that's out there that can be known is known so that the market price is efficient. Therefore, whatever price on the stocks, whatever price Apple is or Nvidia is, it's true. And it's in true. It's in its truest form of price, in the sense that everything that can be known about the company is known about the company by someone and or the market.

whether you're the one that knows the littlest and someone else knows more. Whatever everything that can be known is known. therefore, the price is efficient, and the price is what it's supposed to be based on all the knowledge known by the entire market and how everyone's interacted with it, right. And if that's the case, then it then efficient Market Hypothesis goes on to say that you can't beat the market, because if everything that's known about it is known about it and the price is efficient, then how can you be more efficient than that? And how can you be better than that? Whereas there's other investors that have obviously proven it wrong and we do prove it wrong on a day-to-day basis, many of us right.

And that is to go on that you can beat the market. Therefore, if your portfolio has a 20% return this year and the market only has uh, um, a 10% return this year, you beat the market. So how did you beat the market? If the market is efficient, right to its truest form, there has to be inefficiencies in there that you took advantage of that then gave you a better return than the overall Market which then goes on to contradict the theory of officient E Market efficient market hypothesis, right? So how is it that Warren Buffett can consistently beat the market Whether it's short-term long-term blah blah blah blah blah. If if everything is true in price and there's no inefficiencies, right, that's because it's not.

There are inefficiencies in the market. Like this past week when the entire Market was selling down and we sold the market down to negative3 standard error and2 standard deviation on a six Monon Some of you might be like, what does that dollar me It doesn't really. All you got to know is that from a statistical perspective, these blue lines and these green lines are basically buy because probability say buy right? So that was a high value high probability Long Point Did it have to bounce there? No, The markets can do whatever they want. It's not to tell you it's going to bounce or it's a guaranteed thing it's to put your mind into.

Is this a high value point? And if it is, then you just assume that somebody else is going to see it as a high value point and then somebody else is going to buy and more people and then eventually it's just going to go up right? Because the concept is the only way to actually beat the market is the market has to swing from overbought to oversold, creating inefficiencies from the mean the fair value. If the markets were efficient and everything was truly and accurately priced in the stock market at a one:1 ratio. And there was no scams and there was no corruption and there was no inflated financing of company's books and then getting caught for fraud. If everything was truly efficient, then the price would very very very rarely ever revert away from the mean.

It would always stay in the middle. The trend would always, always, for the most part be consistent with very little inefficiencies around it. But since that's not the case, you get wild swings to from and away and back to the mean which then create inflated market prices where Buffett can sell and lock in 5% and then buy down here and accumulate and get another 10% and now he's up 15% when the Market's up 6% Okay, that's that's the concept of statistical probability analysis along with how Market thinking whatever goes into hand. So that leads me back to saying everyone thinks like oh, the Market's got to pull back.

We have these gaps and we are, so it's it's got to pull back and then I'm over here. It's like, well, I mean like I'm like I'm down for a pullback. like maybe we get one. We haven't been signaled right like now, now, right? Like if you look at uh, is the other chart here, Is that yeah? So so think about that right? Like yeah, maybe we do pull back, but look it, there's no sell signal.

Look at the system. There is no system right now that's telling us sell it. It's still on the upside now, whether or not it's overbought and it's going to reverse at some point and this would be a terrible time to buy and load up. Could very well be in.

That is maybe the case in the short term. So in the short term, no sell signal in the bigger picture probability Theory you would say I mean we still have all the way up to 447. So whether or not we get a short-term sell signal pulls back, then we launch to 447 or whether or not this Market does the most ridiculous I've ever seen and then just goes to 447. I Don't know, right? But those are all possible.

But now we're just going to keep narrowing in on some midterm micro terms and just make sure that we don't do anything stupid in in the short term. And right now the system says we're still up. Not bearish. And if you go, look at you know things like the vix.

The vix still tells us the vix is down. Volatility is down. We're not uptrending on volatility. That means the market is going to be uptrending until we're uptrending on volatility.

The market doesn't downtrend. really? Okay, Um yeah. I mean we I mean I could going for days we can go to buy I mean so anyways, we're just we're just keep chugging along in this move and hope you guys enjoyed the video and I'll catch you on the next one.