Well, good morning, welcome back to another market, open live stream, so today we have a little bit of red in the indices, and bloomberg is suggesting that this is because of actually the spike in covid that we're seeing in countries like germany and austria uh. We talked a little bit about this spike that we were seeing in the netherlands and uh in in germany, uh yeah. We didn't look at austria yesterday, but we touched on this a little bit yesterday. It's very interesting that uh now, potentially that's seen as a downward catalyst.

Again so it'll be fascinating to see how stocks are reacting specifically to this uh spike and kova is definitely not good uh. What i did also think was very interesting. Was there was uh research that the most uh? Well? What was it? The german-speaking part of switzerland, uh germany and the german-speaking austria? These three places had the highest unvaccination rates uh in uh all of europe, europe whoa whoa hold on one sec. There we go, but anyway i thought i was kind of crazy because that, essentially it it seems like germans, for some reason, are really uh less likely to get vaccinated, uh and so you're, seeing this uh as they call it.

The sort of pandemic of the un vaccine, but anyway, because of the spike bloomberg, is suggesting that uh we're seeing a little bit of this uh uh sort of uh resurgence of of maybe covet trades so i'll. I think that's somewhat interesting. I don't know resurgence of cova trades. I feel like i'm a little over uh uh government trades, but uh we'll go ahead and take a look and i'll see what the heck is going on so uh, first uh.

Let's go ahead and hop in see. What's going on with z indices uh, also worth noting that uh crypto is doing a little bit of a rebound uh, which is kind of cool finally, uh yesterday it did drop to about 55 seven. At least bitcoin fell to about fifty five seven yesterday and uh, then uh now it looks like we're back to about 57 7. Let me see where we are now here last moment: yeah all right.

Let's take a look there. We go pulling this up. Okay, we'll go ahead and just hop into the indicy here first and then we'll go to crypto, we'll see what's going on all right here we go so uh indices. Here you go.

Look at that down future's down half percent. Look at this uh cnbc is even saying it too uh. So when you open up the bloomberg terminal, you see the same thing you're, seeing it here. Look at that down future slide is european covered woes, dent global sentiment, but tech shares are uh are higher and, let's see then you've got let's see if we can get the coins up.

No coin market cap for some reason not coming up here. That's all right, we'll go ahead and just go to the cnbc crypto page. Oh, no, a little bit of a delay there on getting the crypto prices as well so we'll grab those here. Let's see it looks like covet, has come for these braces here we go.

Okay, so uh there you go btc 57.8, now ethereum back to 42. ethereum really held uh 4 000. Very, very well. It was btc that that really dropped once we broke that 58 000 support level.

This btc that really dropped to about 55 6 and then started rebounding bonds. Let's see 1.522 on the 10-year. This is interesting to me that uh yields all of a sudden have dropped over uh one-tenth of a percent uh in in just the last uh few days. Here, especially since it seems to be mostly on potential covert fears, so let's go ahead and see how individual stocks are reacting to this, although yesterday we did have earnings as well, for some of these so you'll see here william sonoma 6.5 to the downside, uh workday.

Six point: three: three uh voozi 3.29 looks like lemonade's going right again today, here: 3.27 matterport 2.85 to the downside, a firm another 2 here to the downside, macy's and nordstrom uh interesting, seeing some uh oh may see some nordstrom there. It seems like they just updated away here. Okay, so not may see a nordstrom but uh affirmative, lucid uh down a couple percent here, uh, let's flip to the winners so far here in the morning into it, killed it yesterday with earnings really really good 13.29 voyager. Well, this is not voyager digital.

No, i can't get rid of this one. There we go uh rivien is actually green today, uh by about 3.66 good thing. I closed those shorts, uh, peloton 2.79. Look at that.

You've actually got peloton coming back now. If there isn't something that says, stay at home, play uh and and coven like peloton, that's crazy, uh and, of course, nvidia up again, another one point: uh 1.87. This is just the stock that you cannot stop the unstoppable tech stock. It's pretty incredible! Ah then, let's see here, etsy seo; okay, one point one: five percent, not massive movements here, tesla back at 1100, robinhood up about point three: a four percent: i'm kind of surprised that after the lawsuit uh was thrown out, the the meme stock lawsuit the massive class Action lawsuits against robin hood.

I'm surprised that after that was thrown out, the stock didn't really move uh it. It's almost like stock market didn't really care. I just don't like robin hood, which i yesterday, which, if you don't follow me on twitter, yet check that out. Uh, but i tweeted yesterday that uh kathy wood out of the first 12 trading days of november caught robin hood eight times well in the last two days on the 17th and 18th, robin hood was lower than it was on all of the other days that she Had bought but she'd add to her position so maybe she's fully allocated.

Maybe maybe she ran out of money. I don't know you know, i suppose what we could do is we could pull up the uh flow chart to see what's going on with kathy woods, funds to see how people are uh, either depositing money or withdrawing money go ahead and do that i'll. Take a second to pull that up, that'll be interesting, but uh, but yeah i mean we're not really other than uh intuit from a earnings point of view here we're not really seeing a oh. That's, really annoying we're not really seeing uh a big uh move here.

Oh, this is interesting huh. I that's what you know hold on. You know the codes you have to put in there we go. This is the first time that i've actually gotten something.

That's like a word again, but i don't know what this one means. Maybe y'all can help me decipher it. It's uh, l, four f t, so it kind of feels like left like left. What like you left the market, my left hand, uh l, four f, t uh! That's that's an interesting one anyway, i'll all wait to see what what anyone else's speculation is.

Uh, all right so hmm, fourteen percent into it uh you've, actually got hippo up about two point: five percent reviewing to uh 3.5: let's go to watch list here uh here we go whoa united, united wholesale mortgage up 19 on a news that they're buying back a Lot of shares of their company, so great news for uh united wholesale mortgage company german producer prices rise at fastest pace in almost 60 years. Oh, but don't worry, there's no inflation and then you have a german foreign minister excludes national general lockdown. No, no! Full german lockdown huh ugh lockdowns again you imagine talking about lockdowns again. I feel bad physics.

Oh no, hmm, all right what else here, let's see here, we go okay, perfect, all right! So, let's see here then: okay, we have kathy kathy's docks here. So, let's see arc okay flows, let's see what we got here. Well, it's more of an arc f that we should be looking at uh kind of these fun flows have been kind of low, so i'll show. Let me see if i can get arc f.

Let's say arc f as well: r f flows. No, i can't, but i can get rk and i'll show you. The rk fund flows, so uh fun flows is really how much money is either coming in or being withdrawn from kathy's funds, or at least rk, and take a look at this thanks bloomberg for this. But uh.

If you look here, you see, sort of the volatility has substantially gone down: you're really at plus or minus 200 ish on on the extremes here and spending a lot of time close to the middle, which would be uh low withdrawals and low deposits really compared to The beginning of the year, where you had these insane swings and funds coming in or funds going out so a little interesting yeah to see this uh, let's see, yeah, replace n and uh left for nft um. Okay, let's see here, uh l4ft, reddit post for dogecoin uh, a firm increase, the bond offering another 250 ml. I feel like that was the extra options that they gave. The underwriters um that doesn't seem like anybody has a really good idea.

What l 4ft can mean, so maybe it doesn't mean anything more hot coffee. There you go: okay, uh, so yeah, fun flows, i'd, say almost somewhat stable, uh, united hill somewhere 18.6 percent. Nice uh, i don't know, don't have a think of a soul put on them. The mortgage sector's been rough yeah yeah.

I have a sold put on them. That's interesting, huh, okay! So then we have moderna blue apron, blue apron, coming back, wow, seven point: seven! Six as if that's not like a sign, a coveted yeah flu apron eating at home got ta, get your got. Ta get your your food delivered at home for lockdowns, oh yeah yeah. Let's look at that cove like how how bad can it really be? Well, let's see all right so yeah, the dao really doesn't like this 0.59 to the downside and nasdaq 0.5 to the upside okay, 57.9, now on btc, so you've definitely got some by the dipping happening.

Finally, because you did fall to 55 6, i think it was but anyway uh covet cases. Germany yeah another another sort of record day here. Is their software still bug? Oh no. There we go unbugged yeah, look at that this week, substantially higher than any day before it on the last 30 days here, oh yeah, so hmm! Now i do wonder how much of this would really trickle over to the united states.

We did open up international travel again, so it's always possible that uh reopening international travel, when you have spikes, especially in europe, could create issues again and we are seeing a little bit of an uptake. Let's go less authority here in america yeah but see that's a much slower uptick than what you're seeing germany. Although this is a little bit of an inflection point here, see look. The raid is somewhat picking up, it does make sense.

I mean it's it's winter right sort of you would expect uh covid to to rear its ugly head again in a more substantial way in in the winter, okay, so vivian 3.7 to the upside, all right. How about and let's see what any earnings this morning too, howdy mining, oh yeah, the miners coming back up a few percent on a little bit of that bitcoin recovery, netflix nvidia nvidia sitting at 1.26, docusign, 1.16 coinbase, one and c3 ai point six, six amazon point: Four tesla's up a third of a percent, microsoft, paypal, wayfair, end phase. Slam phase is like flat all right, any any discounts to be had matterport another two percent, uh lemonades there's not two percent again, not much. Actually, i wonder, what's really dragging the dow down when not like, there's anything hugely bleeding here, let's see what uh cnbc's got going on, amazon has made it so that the public doesn't like it nearly as much as they used to when it comes to retail.

Interesting not uh, not an amazon killer, uh, but one that can maybe co-exist. Yes. Now, let's run along, i check with people out here. Carl, you have to spend a fortune to go up against amazon and macy's doesn't have that they just don't have the money to compete, but they may have the money to compete in one niche business and that niche business is used for basis.

Yeah uh, that's interesting! We'll talk more about that in a bit we'll get cramer's, matt dash count down to the opening bell on this friday morning, all right so uh this morning we did a foot locker report, we'll go ahead and take a look at foot. Locker here. Steve has a suggestion that maybe lf uh l4 ft stands for look for falling treasuries foot locker, which we are seeing falling. Treasure yields kind of interesting, uh.

Okay, so oh, is this the uh? This is the uh tesla commercial! Isn't it let's go? Let's go: hurts tesla uh all right, so food locker same store sales up, 2.2 percent eps comes in at 1.52 versus 2.52 whoa global supply chain constraints to persist throughout the next quarter. Expect supply chain issues to consider persist. Wow inventory levels are ready for the holidays, but still supply chain woes, wow foot locker, wonder if uh how they performed afterwards is stock market uh foot locker, never thought really about investing in foot locker. It's down five percent in the pre-market after their uh their earnings.

Here, here's sort of that fall that you had this morning pre-market earnings release here. Was it about 60 bucks sitting right around 50, 54, 42 right now, all right, hmm! Okay! What about other top news? Coved fears start to seep back into us trading. Let's go ahead and take a look at this and the uptick in treasury prices, which would be fallen. Yields today was expected even before a surge in covet infections in europe forced austria to impose a lockdown in germany to reconsider.

Now they chose not to, but anyway, u.s bonds could extend gains price gains into the london close today and then trade sideways ahead of the weekend. That should keep price dips to a minimum complacency, quiet markets, equity option, expirations and a dramatic slowing in sister market supply were on investors radar in advance of today's early rally in new york trading, which now uh or they're talking about uh price rally on uh bots, Which is leading yields to fall, hmm covet spike in austria and germany is worst yet. Markets are right to be worried about covet, spread in europe. The spike in coveted cases in austria, far outpaces anything that country has witnessed since the pandemic began and moved surprisingly fast.

For our country, with a relatively high vax rate, really, let's see here, uh austria kovac is it? Could it really be that it oh wow, yeah, look at that! Look at this. This is march when the pen oh hold on. Let's move this look at this. This was when the pandemic started.

This was winter one, and this was winter too. That's crazy! That's a very different looking chart the fact they're actually having a worse time now than they had before. That's wild! That's the same thing with germany, though too wow belgium and ireland have very high case counts, and cases are also rising in denmark, france, spain and portugal wow, spain, yeah, i mean spain springs pretty low. So that's good! Portugal is yeah.

I mean that's kind of a nominal rise. These are not too scary. France, yeah, francis france, is accelerating a little bit more uk is an interesting counter. Cases have been high for months, but deaths and hospitalizations have remained relatively low, so authorities feel content to let it run for the time being.

In eastern, where vaccination rates tend to be much lower. Deaths are running extremely high ouch in the united states cases that stabilize but are now showing signs of rising again they're concentrated in the eastern rockies and great lakes, states, utah, colorado, wyoming, montana, north dakota, minnesota, arizona, new mexico, nebraska south dakota. It's just kind of what they're listing here the return of the covid trade. Oh, do we believe this? The specter? Oh a specter, the specter of covid, continues to hang over financial markets.

If only sporadically, as european lockdown headlines cast appall over friday's trading, the reaction has been fairly predictable, stocks yields and the euro lower. But the question is whether u.s operators will follow through as they slide into their seats or see the prices as an opportunity to go. The other way on the euro, it's frankly a little hard to see the latter happening. Okay, i'll see if price falls on the euro, hmm europe lockdown prospects and dollar volatility: soaring: okay, um, okay, it's uh enough about those headlines.

Oh, let's see what jim says about it too. In the meantime, the stake that fort has in riviera is a trojan horse. They are no long they're, not friends with riven uh farley's, not friends with anybody. Well, maybe he's friends with squawking street, but what we're gon na get here is the destruction of the last great growth sector.

We have had a tremendous destruction over the last few days with exception of intuit, and it's really happening right now to a sector that people fall in love with when you start having a company that has low debt. That is going to be able to take its ribbon steak. You have to wonder david. How long do you want to hang in ribbon? You just want to like hang there as if it's like no problem, i mean you have the largest guy who wants to sell the second largest ship james wants to sell david, you can't just stay.

Can you just stay in ribbon and be oblivious to that david? Well, you say they want to sell. Do you know that for a fact, is there a plan underway to actually monetize that statement? No, we don't know that yet, but i know they want to sell. Yes, they are not colleagues, they are opponents. Okay, all right here comes the bell.

That's that was big. No one knows that, let's get to the opening bell here in the cnbc real-time exchange of the big board, it's a beauty company cody, celebrating its investor day at the nasdaq stronghold digital mining, a bitcoin mining company celebrating its recent ipo jim uh bitcoin 57k. Getting awfully close to a bear market, interestingly, robin hood, whose fortunes have been closely tied to crypto, gets a catalyst to sell call over at deutsche today. I thought that was unbelievable because they said talk about beating a dead horse.

That's like probably 55 to 60 percent red today uh, and that is, is that true did robin hood get a cell call by deutsche bank? Let's see here and then we'll look at how things are reacting here: uh yeah, robin hood added to deutsche bank catalyst. Call cell idea, huh, despite favorable ruling robin hood's governance, remains in spotlight robin hood: a cell catalyst called at deutsche bank as memes falter wow as memes falter. That's that's interesting, uh, okay! So as we get into the uh the open here, we've got uh united wholesale up about 20 percent. Here falling a little bit looks like you got some profit taking occurring here.

Uh right at the open, you've got uh sheep up to 47 again here fun sitting at 9. Moderna 5.99 rivien is up five percent here golly. How perfect timing to have uh shorted ribbian, but then have closed that yesterday, uh right before this uh this? This sort of little comeback rally here: uh, that's that's great, which um! You know not all my timing's perfect. But if you want to hear what i'm trading, exactly all my buy, sell alerts, make sure you check out the stocks and psychology of money group linked down below check that out and use that black friday coupon code, because price goes up.

11. 59 p.m. On friday, all right so ethereum uh ethereum back to 42 uh ethereum, really held on which is really impressive. Uh.

Oh look at that yeah. You got a very, very, very brief. Little dips here under support at 4 000.. It really held on and has is bouncing off that line now.

Btc, on the other hand, broke. Look at that break here. There's that 55 6 number really broke uh and was heading for uh 54 300, which i thought there was a really high likelihood. Uh.

Like i said yesterday, i thought there was like a 70 chance we would head towards uh 50 or that we would hit the 50 4000 region. We got really close uh. Now it's going to be a big test here is bitcoin going to be able to break through this? Are we going to keep that green and crypto? Are we going to bounce off this 58k? Because if we bounce off that 58k again, it could pull the rest of the crypto market off again, so i would really be watching that 58k level. So, let's see william sonoma is recovering a little bit uh it was.

It was down like eight percent of the free markets at five percent, now foot locker, on the other hand, selling off a little bit carnival cruise lines. Oh see this kind of makes sense. The recovery plays again rotating down a bit. This could end up becoming an opportunity.

This whole lycovid fear again. I wonder if this could potentially end up becoming an opportunity for something like airbnb again, if airbnb sells off, uh or or i mean ultimately, if you do get coveted, plays selling off like uh uh carter or the reopening place selling off like carnival cruise lines uh Simon property group - my goodness, oh no, don't remind me about buying simon property group. I remember playing that during the pandemic. That was a great play, but boy, oh boy, that was a tough time being stuck at home.

Don't want to do that anymore! I want to go everywhere. I want to travel everywhere. That's what i want. Oh dear! So let's see here united airlines down three percent yeah spirit airlines down 2.6.

Oh my gosh, the government trade is returning dave buster's, going down. Oh no, that's very tiring! So far, uh down about 1.8, actually kind of surprised. It's not down more uh uh chamoth disclosed about a 15 sale of his stake in sofa, which obviously uh he got paid lots of money for spacking. It's just never a good sign when he started selling those, because that's what he did to virgin galactic and boy that one's been a rough one.

But he then again he did fully sell out a virgin and has not fully sold out of uh. So far from what you can tell uh united wholesale mortgage at about 6.8 fun, where eleven percent i, what could the possible news, be unfun fun, let's see here all right. Let's see here, fun is fun, says it's fun. Coin cryptocurrency is due to begin trading.

Oh, my gosh um, okay roblox coming back again up four point: six nine percent - that was a short dick rivian - is up seven percent. The euphoria is back docusign, 3.9 percent. See docusign is a good stay at home, play uh wow bill.com, three percent blink charging's uh, a lot of volatility, there's peloton three percent etsy. Oh my gosh we're almost at three hundred dollars on etsy end phase.

One point: eight two percent matterport went positive. Oh, my goodness, the favorites are running again cloud flare, here's another one! Look at that! Wait cloudflare's at 219 right now; wow, that's incredible! All right! Where's, tesla, tesla flat! Okay, all right! Let's just see what else going on so coin: market cap, uh, 50, 57. Again, on btc a little soft bitcoin actually getting hit the hardest. If, if you look at sort of the top coins over here uh until you get to xrp bitcoin with a 9.23 sell-off in the last seven days, getting hit the hardest compared to these others, here, cnbc uh, no, let's go to bloomberg.

The bloomer fda clears covet. Boosters for all us adults, this is jerome powell's shot at a volcker moment in reverse uh. Well volker was a extreme hawk, so they're basically saying can he be like a vulcan in reverse and probably stick with the uh, the dovish attitude? Let's see here it, it took courage to lift rates in 1979 to kill inflation. The gutsy move for today may be to stand stand fast until we have more jobs, wow.

The pundits are coming for the fed reserve, chairperson uh recently, so you've got people recently saying the central bank has made one of the worst inflation calls in history financial times called on the fed to abandon more flexible inflation target. At this year. Yeah people people seem mad. Even the wall street journals editorial board railed on him, uh la uh yesterday, but anyway, powell now has the opportunity to redefine we'll see it's not terribly interesting, but uh, we'll we'll see if jerome ends up being right.

All right. Okay, bloomberg doesn't want to respond. Well, that's fine! I'll! Look over here! Somebody here says in the 1970s, where you earned 30 trillion in debt. Let's say: u.s budget deficit u.s budget deficit.

I thought there was a little less than that uh. I can't spell today. I really can't spell the day uh, whatever it'll autocorrect uh, okay well hold on a sec, really nothing's gon na load there for a second find that i'll go over here, u.s budget deficit. There we go so we're currently at or i guess i shouldn't be.

Budget deficit should be total debt, total united states debt, because budget deficit is your annual debt 28.91 trillion. That's interesting yeah! We are almost at that big 3-0 wow. 28.9. That's interesting and uh us get to gdp pretty high as well, but debt service payments historically low.

So i guess it depends which definition you want to look at okay biden to transfer power briefly to harris during clubs. Well, that's normal when they do that sexual or that uh um procedures default, threatens companies reeling from frayed uh supply chains default threatens companies well what companies are reeling so badly? Let's see here, the roster includes casper sleep, which accepted a buyout at a fire sale price along with a costly bridge loan, really that the mattress company armstrong flooring reeling from a 21 increase in costs, expects to violate its loan agreement wow. So you actually have some companies going bankrupt from the supply chain issue. Atr ater, which sells consumer products ranging from coffee pots to office chairs, had to hand lenders an equity state stake after missing a debt payment whoa substantially higher shipping costs were to blame atr.

Really this was a momentum play for a while yeah look at that. The momentum play here was so ridiculous. Look at that! This thing ran up to 48.99 omg, that is, nuts collapsed to three dollars and four cents ran up to 19 and it collapsed again. I did not know they were super stressed by uh supply chain issues, but that's very interesting you're actually seeing some companies getting so hit by these coveted supply chain crises that they're actually potentially heading towards bankruptcy.

Hmm, okay, weed from canopy replaces cfo new lawsuit, says tesla subjects: women to quote rampant sexual harassment. That, by the way, is the headline right after the biden thing for those of you in the comments uh, let's see black friday, shoppers prepare to be frustrated um. Let's see the bargain bonanza that is black friday has begun. That's right and you can now get the amazing coupon code linked down below before prices go up at 11 59 pm on friday on all those programs, i'm building your wealth only there are a few special offers this year.

That is beginning. Let's see here, you can blame the global supply chain meltdown for the dearth of doorbusters. Ah, that was always so fun, except when they had the mobs that was not fun. Even when toys and tvs start flowing through trade arteries again, retailers should maintain a more disciplined approach.

To discounting this won't be easy, but stores stand to gain a lot if they bin the bargains in black friday to come this year. Many americans are still flush with lockdown savings, while wage gains are also boosting household spending. Power combine that with missing out on holiday festivities in 2020, and that's made for buoyant consumer conditions, see that i think is so interesting. You know people say that oh inflation is hurting the middle class, so much and so on and so forth.

That's fine and that's that's empathetic, but more and more the data keeps showing that savings are high. People are making more money at their jobs, and people want to spend. People are optimistic to spend money so yeah overall inflation might be high, but but are you spending money in every single category where there's inflation, you know probably not uh, certainly some folks a lot. I mean rent inflation and food inflation and energy cost inflation, but uh there's a percentage of of someone's budget.

I think some of these, these things can still be outweighed huh all right. What's the what's the breaking news, cnbc! Well, that's right! Carl democrats are finally passing their signature social spending package through the house almost straight down party lines. You could see lawmakers democrats cheering and clapping as those final votes were cast. The final vote tally is 220 to 209.

Every republican voted against it. Almost every democrat voted for it. The only holdout was representative jared golden of maine he's a moderate who was unhappy about the increase in the cap on state and local tax deductions, because it benefits millionaires. But overall democrats were able to overcome concerns by moderates about the size of this package.

Once the cbo score came out yesterday, no house speaker, nancy pelosi did say that the bill is fully paid for and that it will not increase inflation, though, of course, republicans. Uh do not agree with that assessment. The bill now heads over to the senate, where majority leader chuck schumer, has said that he hopes to pass it by christmas. However, we know the senators joe manchin and kirsten cinema still have concerns.

Other democratic senators want to make changes as well so a victory today in the house as this bill uh. The final tally is 220 to 209 passing through the house, but we still have an uphill climb in the senate and no votes to spare in that chamber. Guys, i wonder what you make of the cbo score yesterday. They do say about 367 billion in new deficits, but others argue it doesn't account for better irs collection, better irs enforcement, even larry summers with an opinion piece saying, treasury's being too conservative in the amount of money that may be recovered.

If you reform the irs yeah. This is a problem that, once upon a time carl, we would have called a known known. Democrats were bracing for that discrepancy for weeks and they've done a lot of outreach to those moderate members to try to explain why cbo was unable to include as really any of the irs enforcement money in their score, but also had a lower estimate than the white House would have for how much that increase. Uh irs enforcement would raise um.

It seems like they were able to get that message through to the moderate democrats, we'll see if it's enough to convince people we're gon na slow down here for a second uh worth noting that bitcoin is actually moving on. This passage up about uh 250 bucks. Here, just in the last couple minutes uh, which makes sense because anytime they pass one of these big bills. It's really good for crypto, uh, wayfarer up 6.27 percent.

Look at it! It's finally heading back to 300 into it up: 12 roblox, six percent geez. Yesterday it was like up something like 10 in the morning and then and then slipped right back down matter, ports up four percent this morning and rivien's up 5.5. I closed both of those shorts. Yesterday boy, oh boy, that was perfect uh, let's see here.

I have also been raising cash, though i'm at eight percent cash uh. We are kind of still within this end of the year euphoria, but i'm not jumping up and down on uh particular deals, i'm seeing so uh, i'm okay standing by for some opportunities uh. Even if that ends up being real estate, we'll see okay, so we have airbnb 4.79, united airline, 4.37 dave and buster's 2.75. Let's see jpmorgan 1.91 american airlines 1.65.

A firm 122. expi is down a little bit. Corsair gaming's down a little bit. Cloudflare flare is actually going down a little wait.

Where'd it go, nope may have just popped back up to the top that wouldn't be expected, or it wouldn't be a surprise. I don't know where it went all right. Oh look tesla's coming back again: uh 0.83 percent seems to be moving a little bit here, lemonade's, actually up one percent, my goodness etsy one point: nine rivian, six percent hud-8 mining about five percent; very interesting and uh united wholesale mortgage almost back to seven dollars. Okay, let's see what other headlines doth we have.

Let's see. Hmm democrats millionaire tax is just a paper tiger paper tigers. Inflation gives us workers, ammunition and pay raises uh. Let's see, bonds rally.

European lockdown concerns hmm oprah, winfrey and witherspoon, invest in spanx at a 1.2 billion dollar valuation, spanx eh, okay, not a lot of news today. It really seems, like the big news of the day, is covet covered in europe. Obviously, uh the passing of of the the stimulus package here uh, but with down down 0.57 s, p futures uh down fractionally here, nasdaq's still up almost half percent yeah bonds, slight tick up here after the uh passage of the build back better plan in the house. Uh keep in mind this still has to get passed by the senate and the joe manchin moderate, as well as kirsten cinema.

Both of them are going to have to be convinced on passing this package, so we'll see what's what's going on there roblox and nike news. Let's see interesting if they had a partnership, roblox oops, all right, yeah, the nation's most important politician, aka senator joe manchin, will be showing his importance in the coming days. As with the final say, on the buildback better plan, yep no kidding two more democrat, wait and show this democrat senator jeff, merkley and sheldon whitehouse said they oppose a second term for fed chair jerome powell. Hmm all right folks nick wants to know if we've seen that covet cases are beginning to inflect up nick must have just joined and not watched the first like 15 minutes of the livestream.

That's all we've been talking about bro um jetblue is dangling a thousand dollar attendance bonuses for flight attendants. You know this is interesting. This is like the opposite of what kind of uh the the approach, but it was the same message that bloomberg took yesterday. Bloomberg ran an article yesterday about how basically, the companies that are getting killed in earnings are the companies that are like hey we're, having inflationary pressures but we're not trying to raise prices.

Yet the companies that are doing well are willing to raise prices, but they're, not uh, but they are still affected by by the the inflationary concerns pricing power big deal, one of the reasons by the way i really like end phase strong pricing power just brought a Charging company too talked about it yesterday was blown away, but their margins are phenomenal, really really good margins. End phase is a beast. Folks, love this 262.. Look at that run.

It's had. It was really stuck in a channel here and it just exploded here recently same thing with etsy yeah recent explosions. It kind of makes it hard, though, to buy right now: rivian 7.8 percent loose at 5.8, so nice little recovery here on the evs. I wonder how that's affecting tesla tesla, where are you is paypal under to what really hold on? Let's look at tesla.

First, let's feel good before looking at paypal. Ah, no, it's only point four percent. So it's back down! That's that's not feel good paypal whoa paypal's at 199., oh my gosh, the payment processors are getting killed. Omg! Look at that volume on paypal.

It's just not going away. It's just people keep selling and selling and selling look at square or square square's at 227.. What is it with the payment processors? That's leading these guys to get railed on. I mean paypal just announced that they're taking crypto payments.

Hmm, i see here i have no idea. I just don't see a reason for that and uh really paypal. I feel like has a much juicier valuation compared to even square square expected to grow. Really.

They need to grow at like 25 to 30 percent to keep pace with their pricing. Bloomberg and wall street are forecasting a little bit more fluctuations here, but uh of somewhere between uh substantial growth this year, like almost a double this year, but then eight percent next year, 20, the year after 33, 33 thereafter paypal, on the other hand, for profitable company. I know that let me see here, paypal yeah, bringing bottom line of about 20 profitable company earnings per share this year about 4.6 expected and growth at about 18. To 19 i mean that's not bad and you're at 201, divided by 461 you're, paying 43.6 times earnings.

Today, you're expecting a pe of 10 in 2025, which is a 20 times p e ratio which, since the growth rate's about 20 you're, almost at a peak of one, that's not bad. You know i i don't know what i i got. Ta read through paypal's earnings, see why why this one's just getting railed on so much doesn't seem like it's that horrible to play paypal, although maybe with the whole, like. Oh, no, you think with covet.

It should be good for paypal now more stay-at-home transactions. I don't know all right: how is neo doing today neo down again, i already ate gross hmm getting hit okay. What else here crypto back on an uptrend, lucid trade desk? Oh trade desk, almost at 110, getting all-time highs again: nvidia owlette, etsy, piton, hmm air airbnb down 6.2 percent, wait what's happening at airbnb. Paypal was downgrade.

I didn't see that i actually saw that most of its price targets were holding i'll. Look at that as well, but airbnb is all of a sudden falling a lot uh yeah! I don't see that price target or price cut. Like i see that ubs announced a price target of 263 dollars, it's obviously a lot higher than where it is right now, but anyway, uh airbnb see what's going on here. Why? Why are we dropping six percent on airbnb? No news, literally, no news, nothing yeah! It! That's what i was thinking is coving, so we're at the ema 20 now burr.

Oh, it got cold in here, hmm wells, fargo down four percent wow ooh whoa carnival cruise lines. Did it just drop below 20? Oh my gosh, it did 1996. Oh, my gosh carnival cruise lines. I've been waiting for this thing to hit 20., but honestly, if we're just starting a potential covered by again look at that all of this has evaporated.

Oh my gosh. We started the year out at also about twenty dollars, we're right back to it. Oh wow, that's fascinating, huh! All right! Let's see here, yeah carnival 20 bucks a firm's down again a little bit dave and buster's down. I don't know why: firms trading with tho these uh reopening trades selling off no regent cruise lines down three percent darden nordstroms macy's, which is really interesting because yesterday we were talking about sort of that return to the consumer and consumer optimism and more spending.

But if we're gon na have coveted fears again and a coveted resurgence honestly, the beneficiaries here could be the place could be amazon and etsy again, which, let's see here etsy, is up 2.3 percent today, uh it almost it's at an all-time high. Essentially, it just hit an all-time high of 299.4. It's at 296 right now. Ebay is up a couple percent.

Uh ebay might even have a resurgence here, paypal by the way, really trying to distance itself from from etsy or from uh from ebay, hey and then amazon amazon's up 1.56 as well. Hey we're gon na have amazon 4k. This season, probably huh wayfarer up almost eight percent whoa, hmm, okay, let's see what else is going on: no insurtech sucks. Okay.

So, let's see cash backing record margin. Debt is shrinking. Oh, let's look at how our where we stand with margin dead and let's see what they're talking about here margin. No, i got rid of the rivian puts yesterday.

Nick's point of view see if you would come earlier in the live stream. You would have also known that, because we also talked about that see nick, i think you got to start the live stream from the beginning and then just put it on 2x and catch up anyway. Uh. We still like you, nick okay, so look at margin, we're at record highs in uh in two days.

So like monday or tuesday, we should be able to get november margin data. I wonder what they're referring to with cash balances, going down. Let's see what bloomberg's saying as the stock market goes from one record to the next, so does the amount of money traders are borrowing to buy into the rally? Oh gosh? No! No! No! No! No! No! Please do the opposite. No! No! Oh! What's worrying someone wall street isn't per se that consumer debt in customers margin accounts is rising, but that the amount of cash used as a cushion is going.

The other way margin debt hit a record high of 936 billion at the end of october. That's this number right here of 42 from this time a year ago. This is insane yeah. We're gon na be at a trillion dollars a margin soon uh, that doesn't mean the euphoria is getting out of hand margin account.

Leverage has been on a rise on par with the s p's market cap. What's concerning is the simultaneous declines in so-called free credits or the cash available to brokerage account holders to withdraw. So that would be this number right here, but you only saw a little bit of a decline since september. What are they? Looking at total level of debt and margin accounts now exceeds the cash hoard by 500 billion uh, the most ever on a long-term basis.

The growth in debt against relatively little cash holdings appears to be negative when the stock market rallies the way it has been in the last 20 months. Few tend to take a falling level as of cash as an issue should the market turn around that thinking may change quickly. Yeah agreed, wow, lemonade and progressive shares fell two point one or four percent of one percent respectively in pre-market trading friday, as both were hit with fresh underperform ratings by jefferies yep. I believe that i think this whole covid movement could end up creating an opportunity uh.

I don't like buying um into rallies at all, but this is interesting. Somebody's shouting out gk by the way uh emlyn bowen, says that gk etf has been a great buy. For me, this is not a commercial, not an ad. Well good! I'm happy for you! That's gk, it's an etf by ross gerber on your next put.

By, could you do it live and show us how you do it on robin hood? Well, i mean like i maybe a lot of uh. I've got a lot of lectures on options in the stocks. In psychology and money group, it really gives you some psych into into options as well, which i think, i think, really really cool uh. So honestly, you might want to check that out oil tumbles with europe's surging covet cases.

Oh remember, oh! This is interesting. Okay, remember this covid surging actually tends to be a a like an anchor on inflation. Okay. So if we get a coveted, let's map this out here for a second okay, a coved surge in europe is probably going to create some form of covert case surge in america.

So if you get a case surge in europe case surge euro you're - probably going to have this 30-day period of uncertainty of death uncertainty now we would expect that deaths should be lower because of uh vax, because you could still get covid vaccinated. It's a lower chance. We can still get covered vaccinated, but death should be lower because of the vaccines, but also because of the pills uh evergrand see. Oh, that headline came and went all right.

That was odd anyway. Okay, so if cases search in europe, then you have 30 days of deaths on death uncertainty. So that would be between now - and i would say christmas now to christmas, but then we would also expect cases to surge in us, boss, uh and then possibly lockdown international travel, national or german travel. Let's be real, it's the damn germans.

I could say that uh lock down an international travel or german uh travel, okay, which leads to a decline in yields down yields down recovery stocks. But then you also have down inflation and possibly see, but the other problem is, you also potentially have manufacturing. Delays, which is, is an increase in inflation for european products in europe, which which this has the effect of increasing inflation, uh and really you're, going to be looking for opportunities in coveted stocks or or recovery stocks, which, i would venture to say, would be uh. What? What what are what are some of the favorites, so obviously the at home, you're gon na have things like docusign etsy, uh amazon.

I don't know if chipotle matters so much anymore, since so many people or so many food places are doing so well. But then the other ones would be like the airlines uh kovit, so this would be airlines uh, restaurants, uh cruise lines. You know all that usual stuff, simon property group. These guys could get hurt so if, in other words, if you think covet this code surge in europe is going to continue to get worse, you might, for example, want to shore airlines cruise lines, malls airbnb or you wait for them to fall and buy the dip.

Potentially go for options on things like docusign, etsy, amazon, but then again, docusign etsy amazon are at pretty high prices already so potentially you're more interested at looking for by the dip opportunities. If you get a larger dip in in these recoveries, but yeah yields down recovery, stocks, down inflation, down, manufacturing delays, but also oil down it's another interesting one. Oil down which oil be going down has has a downward effect on inflation as well, which could be good because it'd be nice to see things like oil prices actually fall again. I wonder how much they've gone down.

Let's see here, call me a madman. Somebody says call me a madman: i'm shorting, the s, p yeah, i mean the s p's been on this insane rally. I don't actually think you're that much of a madman uh. I can't i actually thought about shorting the s p as well.

I i thought about, but then i ended up. Shorting rivian in matterport i took was it like 160 170k attendees in like 24 hours on a 300k investment? That's great anyway uh, so oil yeah wow, the brent's back under 80., and oil itself is uh. The other measure is almost under uh, 75, again: hmm, okay, while at the same time 58k, oh back over 50 uh, no we're not bounced off 58k; again, that's a tough spot for btc, hmm, okay, how's everything else doing. Let's see here, she's up 19 uh lucids up eight wayfair is up.

Almost seven. Wayfair could be an interesting play honestly because remember wayfarer usually runs to like 300, so you've got about a you know a solid 10 in there. So it makes you wonder like: can you get some cheap calls on wayfair? But again it's already moved quite a bit, but if you got something in the money, yeah you're paying almost 20 bucks for a 28-day call a lot trade desk killing it another four percent. Wow and face three percent: oh my gosh, i'm never gon na have a deal on these again.

Uh etsy, 3.2 voyager digital. Coming back a little bit peloton hippo about 1.8 downside airbnb, carnival the airlines, the coveted guys, the return of covered ugh gross robin hood down. Again, robin hood's going to be under 30 soon. How wild is that a lot of people are happy about that.

Let me blow my cropping around these pods and tesla's up about a third cloud flares up again a little bit 217. Now all right. What else nope nope nope nope nope? Ah yeah, the big news, got a coupon code down below with black friday coming up and the coupon code expiring gon na go over to the course member live stream here shortly. Uh we'll see you all in the next.

One appreciate y'all thanks so much for being here heading over to daily course: member live stream when the market's open and uh see y'all later but yeah. I think that about does it for news for us. So thank you good to see. Y'All we'll see you next.

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