Well, good morning to your lads: oh no, it looks like we've got another radar ahead of us yeah. Some of it has to do with that don rusher anyway. So welcome back folks uh. We do have a little bit of red here, uh and uh.

One of the big uh things that's coming through obviously is uh the russian news that this is from last night uh that uh the united states is potentially paying as many as uh eight thousand 500 u.s troops to be on standby for uh for any kind of Drama that should unfold uh against nato allies in eastern europe volatility index jumped to the highest level that we had seen since october of 2020 uh yesterday, keep in mind that the volatility index uh is is something that uh. That is also deemed to be the fear index and uh right before the election of 2020. There was a lot of fear in the market. Now, generally, i love investing when there's a lot of fear in the market.

A lot of expectations uh that uh, mr jay pal, might be giving us some more deals coming up. Who knows, though, uh it's gon na be very interesting, and it's a big bet on jay pal to assume that he's going to uh either bail out the market or help the market? I think one of the things that's very interesting is you're you're, seeing a massive company like a ge, have continued supply chain pressures uh and, in my opinion, this remember the latest data that we're getting the latest data, in my opinion, is going to be the most Salient to uh jerome powell and to the federal reserve staff. Yesterday we had data from the new york federal reserve that consumers were spending less money on non-essentials, but more money on essentials, implying that inflation for things like food and gas is actually hurting them. Well.

On top of that, ge not only missed sales expectations, but apparently they complained multiple times about grappling with worsening supply chain pressures and the effects of the omicron variant, and because of this uh, they they are seeing a continued slowdown and headwinds to a particular. You know to profits. Essentially, 3m was so uncertain, with sales related to what omicron might end up doing in a q1 that they're not able to give guidance until february they're, saying uh, people did buy more post-it notes and adhesive tape in the fourth quarter um. I did recommend buying post-it notes in the fourth quarter, but i don't think i could take credit for that.

One uh raytheon also complained about supply chain turmoil and ge particularly complained about supply chain pressures in their uh healthcare division. Now, at the same time, we also saw margins expand uh, and this is like literally the the uh, in my opinion, worst case scenario, because it sends the signal to the federal reserve that hey uh we're making more money while at the same time we get supply Chain issues - that's not so great uh, so uh ge also said said. The p word uh, which is not so great. They said that they are experiencing persistent supply chain challenges across all businesses and that they are trying to do everything they can to try to con control costs.

Uh 3m. Delaying their uh guidance was also a big. A big surprise, ibm guidance yesterday was was a complete. Nothing burger by the way the company was very very, in my opinion, misleading with their guidance, uh sort of implying that oh well um yeah our company's different, so uh, it's gon na be hard to compare, there's a little bit of send a little patrick warborton there.

But anyway, uh okay, then listen to this deutsche bank last night made a call that uh there will be a worsening outlook for the u.s stock market and an improving outlook for the chinese stock market because get this china's lowering rates in the u.s is raising rates. So they change their weightings for stock markets, moving uh u.s equities to neutral from overweight and uh the uh, the asia-pacific region to overweight from neutral now. This does not necessarily mean buy uh chinese stocks in america, because you're going to have a liquidity divergence between these two stock exchanges. So, for example, like let's say you have a company, that's dual listed and it's it's a 100 billion dollar company.

You you in america and it's uh, you know, we've got a hundred dollar stock price or whatever and as there's a certain set of earnings or whatever uh. The amount of demand for the shares is going to drive the price here and if we have less demand for shares in the u.s stock market, then that that slows down chinese stocks as well. Even though earnings could be the same over spread across two different stock exchanges, i know that sounds wild, but but that that can be how could work out? You could see less gains in the u.s stock market of a chinese company uh anyway uh. Some estimates that uh it maybe you saw the short i posted yesterday talking about uh the uh, how rare it is to go from like a negative four percent day to a uh to a positive day.

Some estimates that uh this could lead to a good amount of pain for future months, at least one to three months out, and this kind of reiterates a little bit of what ross mentioned yesterday, which was uh, it's okay but probably or potentially, okay, to be very Patient in the market you know dollar cost average into the market uh and don't sort of yolo all in uh onto this market. So, let's see here, okay, we got a little bit of candidates here, that's not so important right now: okay, okay, so kind of going through this now uh. There is a headline here that we've got: the imf cuts 2022 global growth forecast as u.s and china. Recovery wanes that's quite interesting to me.

Let's go ahead and look at this one together. I just saw this one here together so uh and it's a world economic report published on tuesday. That's today, the world, the the imf, expects global gdp to grow 0.5 percent. Less than previously estimated that would be a total of a 4.4 percent growth.

The revised outlook is largely due to markdowns in of the world's largest economy us and china. The international monetary fund has downgraded this global forecast for this year as rising covet cases, supply chain disruptions and higher inflation hamper economic recovery. And let's see here and it's report published tuesday, the imf expects gdp to weaken okay, so we got it where's, the u.s part where's the complaint. Okay, uh here we go, the revised outlook is led by growth markdowns in the world's largest economies, the u.s and china.

The us is expected to grow at four percent or one point two percent lower than previously forecast. As the federal reserve moves to remove stimulus. Look, i think one of the things uh long, the indices short the craziness says uh uh. What's it called um uh, cnbc uh, but anyway uh you know, what's really interesting to to consider is think about think about how our market has consistently had hope to look forward to and and that how that hope has really rotated so uh.

What what's happened is we've gone from this market, where, in march of 2020 february of 2020, even we had so much fear, but we always had something to look forward to right. We had we had a positivity to look forward to. We could look forward to oh yay, we're going to get stimulus or oh yay, the market's going to uh reopen right, uh we're going to we're going to reopen our economy. It's going to be 60 days to slow the spread and it will be we'll be we'll have a v-shaped recovery right, like where's our larry kudlow of of the 2020 era right.

We don't really have a larry kudlow right now. We we have uh. Well, no larry kudlow, but anyway, so no one cheering a v-shaped recovery. No hope that we're just gon na have a v-shaped recovery.

In the summer, like we did in 2020. in 2020, in the summer, things actually got better with covid, i mean there was a period of time where people like oh okay and is kobe kind of over. You know after the first wave, people are like. Ah, it's over it wasn't really until the winter first coveted winter, that things really got bad with uh, with with covet like really bad and uh.

You know that that obviously led to renewed pessimism right around the time of the election, which was a lot of drama but uh. We we were then able to look so over that summer we were able to look at stimulus, ppp plans, uh, potentially a second round of stimulus, lots of unemployment payments. You then get to uh the end of the year and we get we get vaccines, which everybody had a lot of hope in that the vaccines would work quite well uh and so the market explodes on on vaccine euphoria, uh and uh. Then then we get uh.

You know with some inflationary fear so beginning of 2021, but in general jerome powell was was reiterating, don't worry, inflation's transitory inflation ended up being transitory in the summer of 2021.. You might not remember this, but in the summer of 2021, inflation actually started rotating down uh. This was also approximately when uh crypto was was doing quite poorly, which which uh folks, including myself, were then associating crypto with okay. Well, maybe the reason crypto's performing so poorly this summer is because uh you know, inflation has plummeted, uh and it was not necessarily plummet, but it was inflecting down in the summer of 2021, which was really good.

The problem was delta, varian comes right, and so so far we've still got all this optimism right. We still got stimulus, we got child tax credit, we got. Unemployment like people were still getting money, people were still getting stimulus. Uh people got the third stimulus track.

The second stimulus track right and then all the stimulus, more and more stimulus, the problem is uh at every point. During this pandemic, we've had some form of massive support. Unemployment, ppp stimulus, check, drone power, running the printers optimism of something ending. You know whatever we're in a very different place right now.

What we have right now is a lot of short-term pessimism about supply chains, no more stimulus checks, no more uh child tax credit, no more student loan forbearance after a couple months; no more unemployment boost. No more stimulus checks, no more federal reserve printing money. That's going to end, like literally all forms of stimulus are just ending roughly at about the same time, and now we have this massive u-turn from december to contend with, which is the federal reserve saying you know what hey jk on transitory delta screwed, that for us, So you really have this, this very, very bleak outlook, where one of the reasons i expect we're going to continue to see volatility and and potentially pain is uh is. Is this short-term uh belief that there's no good news and uh good news is really important? Uh to the stock market, uh good news - you know bad news, good news this.

This all creates the the typical ups and downs, but if all you have is bad bad, bad, bad, bad, it makes it very difficult for for any good news to really be cheered. If there is even any and of course now, we've got russia supply chain issues, inflation, that's out of control, a federal reserve that wants stock prices down they're, not going to capitulate. Just because you know the nasdaq and the s p are down a little bit and i think that's one of the things that that i mean i would be surprised if they do. I can't obviously guarantee it, but it wouldn't make sense uh.

You know i do think that they'll end up saying something like look. We don't want to crash the markets, that's not our intention and last week when they did this. The market actually kind of had a little short-term rally on that uh. But that's just going to be a perfect opportunity for for hedge funds to reload their shorts uh.

My expectations, but i mean look - s p - is down eight percent uh year to date, nasdaq's down twelve point four percent here to date, but just go to the one year chart and uh. Look at that the nasdaq's actually flat, which is kind of uh wild uh s p up uh 14.39 on the one year and that's because we've shaved off so many gains just here in the last uh last few weeks since the end of december. Really, oh, it's wild uh! Let's go to five year yeah! Well, five year you get that nasdaq out performance, but anyway um yeah. Today the federal reserve meeting starts.

We will not hear about the results of the meeting, of course, until uh tomorrow, and so that's um. It's kind of interesting: it's not something to keep an eye on right anyway. Uh here are futures uh. Actually, you know what i'm going to prefer to jump on over to futures, see those are about 10 minutes delayed, so we're going to go here actually not as bad as uh cnbc has here.

So let's go ahead and go jump into this right here. So we've got uh dow down two thirds s p down one point: three: four nasdaq down one point: eight: nine to start the day: small caps down one point: one three: you know i hate. I hate the the fact that we've got that kind of sort of pain right before the fed meeting uh, but i expect that uh. It wouldn't be surprising to have the most pain right before the meeting tomorrow.

Okay, what what's the breaking news over here? Let's see what we got economic measures being assembled uh for a case where ukraine was invaded further by vladimir putin. Among the issues that are currently being discussed, uh a novel set of export controls that specifically, would be targeting uh the ability of russia to use u.s tools and software for production of items in the aerospace, defense, ai and robotics space with senior administration officials saying the Goal of such a policy would be to essentially atrophy the production capabilities and the ability of russia to diversify its economy going forward. The the us is also discussing with allies and partners around the world, a plan to bolster europe's energy supply and to replace russian exports of natural gas, specifically uh for a situation where some of those uh some of that supply might be cut off. If, in fact, sanctions the ability of russia to export that natural gas, the administration is currently discussing with natural gas companies uh the rerouting of shipments from destinations around the world, from africa to asia, to the middle east to get those cargos to europe instead and these Officials said that some of those shipments have already begun arriving in europe.

The belief is that europe has enough natural gas in storage for at least a couple of weeks if there were an invasion and if sanctions did go into place and that some of these shipments would then be able to supplement and to provide supply for europe. After those supplies in storage too, this sounds terrible, uh run out. Certainly these are contingency plans for a case scenario. The administration still hopes diplomacy will work, and these are executive actions that the administration is taking in lieu of a broader sanctions package being agreed by congress.

Those negotiations are still underway back to you, caleb. Thank you. Kayla tashi on, obviously something very important for the world's energy yeah. That's crazy that that's pretty wild yeah! Look! You know it's it's important to remember that uh this! This is a.

This is a very turbulent time and uh uh there is a. There is an absolute shortage of good news in this market uh and i hate to say it, but when you're in a market that has a shortage of good news, you're you're going to be experiencing pain, uh for for some period of time, uh and uh. That's uh, that's not necessarily uh a bad thing. Well, it's just something to be expected now the big question is uh is: is this time different and uh? I would say for the vast majority of of uh, i would say, 99 of of long-term investors uh the best thing, especially if you're you're invested in in a very diversified portfolio.

I'd say for 99 of folks who cares just focus, focus on opportunities that pop up in the market by the dip and and shut up, so to speak right uh. I think if you are exposed to uh a substantial amount of uh, potentially uh companies, that that would fare worse under a federal reserve regime, uh of uh consistent tightening over this next year uh, then there can still be consistent drawdowns. You know for the next three months that that are really quite painful and that's where that diversification really becomes quite exciting uh. You know in the long run we all know.

Timing in the market time in the market is better than timing. The market so uh evaluate. Do you want to day trade? Do you want to swing trade, or do you want to uh? You want to just stay invested and look for opportunities by the dip. Now we do have three minutes to go uh until market open and uh.

So what we can do is we can go ahead and take a peek and see what's going on uh, i will say uh. It does feel like the uh. The russia drama is uh, somewhat kind of revving up more so in the last 24 hours than really it has at any point. In the last few weeks, that's uh.

That's something a little bit more alarming to pay attention to okay. So, let's uh, let's hop on into uh i'll, stick those over here all right. Let's see here uh, so we've got uh steel dynamics, wow, okay, so steel dynamics reported yesterday and uh down they're down six point: two: three percent: now i actually think they're down more on news about uh uh drama over uh over who's, going to do the cyber Truck than their earnings, because their earnings weren't necessarily bad yeah. What was also incredible - and i tweeted about this yesterday - was that the cost of steel fell 20 in q4 rolled steel, but they were actually able to increase their export prices by eight percent, which is uh, which is quite interesting, that uh that essentially, you are uh.

You're they're able to raise prices while their costs are going down right and - and this is this - is very much in my opinion - something that the federal reserve will look at and go. Why, when, when consumers don't have enough money to spend on non-essentials, when companies are raising prices, because we have high inflation, a company's profits are going up. We still have supply chain issues. Why are we going to care about bailing out the stock market when we need to deal with inflation? Their job is not the stock market do not be confused.

People keep. You know. I hear people try to say like oh, but but but i mean if the stock market falls, then jobs will drop. Dude.

Have you seen the jobs market? There are not enough people looking for jobs, okay, there's way more job demand than ever like we have the capacity to have a little bit of a crash and a little bit of softness in the job market. Okay, like we have plenty of that stretchiness right now, so i i really in in very few scenarios. I think that uh jay pal wants uh wants to bail out the stock market. I do think he's gon na make it very clear.

Tomorrow, though, that hey, i don't want to cause turmoil, you know, but uh anyway, uh. Oh yeah putin walks into a ukrainian bar walks to the music box inserts a rupal and plays his favorite song, justin timberlake crimea, river crimea, river yeah. That's a good one! All right anyway, okay, stuff's red, so matterport affirm. So fine, these guys down four or five percent here, uh trade desk yeah.

Do we have green today, yeah we're a little. Let's get the bell and see not much it's listening. They never knew what it was. They just knew that you could break over 90 red.

What is that 95 red? I mean that is a teeny little corner of green in the morning uh. Well, okay, let's, let's go ahead and see uh how things are actually performing? Okay, so the s p out of the gate is uh is actually dropping a little bit here. Uh, not not super exciting. We've got uh.

Let's see here, palantir looks like it is uh, well not really clear what what it's deciding to do here. Uh apple is trying to rotate green okay, okay, good tesla yeah. We remember, we've got oh tesla's. Moving up, that's a good sign.

Uh tesla got credit. Upgraded here got uh some nice uh buy activity. It looks like coming in here tesla at about 9 20. Right now in the pre-market, it did go down to about 8.75 worth noting some pain there.

Let's take a look here at uh how arc's performing today arc is uh slightly trying to go slightly green, it's down about two and a half percent right now in pre. So is lucid, i'm sorry, not a pretty uh at the open here. Hmm volatility back up uh, let's see here, but uh, potentially coming down again a little bit. So let's just keep an eye on this.

Okay. I still can't believe we almost went to 38 yesterday. Yeah yeah, you know it's gon na be a crazy day if we ever get to 40 over the next few days, and if j pal rug pulls us, that's uh, that's where we go to 40. yeah.

It's all lies: everything's, a bad on j power right now, j-power comes in with the money printer we're going to the moon again instantly uh rivien, five percent. Look at that wow reviewing five percent up uh pinterest four point: five percent amc, uh four point: two percent: these are all to the downside here, sadly end phase uh and face at 123 right now. So we're not seeing like the the depths of despair that we saw yesterday. Oh, let's see here no slight rotation down there on end phase, how about qqq, i'm just trying to get an overall feeling of the direction of the market, and right now it looks like the market is trying to improve going from about a 1.9 loss on the Qqq to about 1.8, not sure if this is going to last that's going to be the big question, one of the things that we're really seeing tesla's coming down.

One of the things that we're really paying attention to uh is is the fact that uh um, you know we we are in a situation where uh we've got to get um. We we well, i don't know what i'm trying to say ah never mind. I feel like i pulled like the joe biden there uh, but that's okay, uh anyway. Let's uh, let me take a listen here quickly to what cnbc says i'll collect my thoughts well, first of all, they shouldn't be who they should be working.

Forget that are people scared right now about their 401k. Well, how about the idea of investing a little bit right now in your 401k i mean i'm frantically trying to invest a little bit forward. I mean i got all these rules now, but i mean what am i going to do? Am i going to wait till it's down 20.? Why yeah, how about down ten okay i'll, be ready with a little firepower if it goes down your point's good on amex, specifically, which is by the way leading the dow, i got a div hike out of there uh twenty percent tna, though still down eighteen from Nine from well, you know: that's gon na come back. I think that what really matters is that uh card growth uh look at lockheed martin, because the uh errorjet general there's another church.

I mean i love jim taylor. Let's take a look at this so uh. Let's see if we can get huh, oh look at nike. Folks, look at nike.

You know this this right here i do wonder uh. I don't know, i'm not sure if there's any news on nike, but i do wonder if the uh fall in consumer uh non-essential spending is what's affecting nike. Here i can find out in just a moment, though uh we'll take a look at that in terms of green. I do want to know what what is actually green today.

Let's, let's take a look here: okay, so uh, we do have volatility, mind medicine at a buck, o three, but i mean like okay: it was in the 90 cents. Yesterday, uh smile, direct clubs up about seven percent, logitech wow, okay, logitech had earnings last night. I do wonder what their forecast was. So let me look at that, so i want to look at a few things.

I want to see if there's anything going on at nike and then we got to figure out, logitech did did logitech provide. What did they say in their earnings call because i don't think they had their earnings call. I think they just released their earnings yesterday, let's see here, uh nike uh, oh okay, nike gains after wells fargo calls a rare buying opportunity, yeah. Well, a lot of good that did it's now rotating down, so a little upgrade there from nike and then maybe there was like some traitor momentum that went into nike and that's why it's falling now smile direct club.

Let me see if there was any actual news here: uh, let's see here, smile direct club - oh, that's, not good smile, direct club to close oversea operations and cut jobs; okay, uh! It's still up today, though, but that's okay, okay, but but they're doing this in a bid to become profitable and now they want to focus on margins more, and this was after earnings. So the the news of cutting jobs at smile direct is actually making the company jump uh. Now i understand the thesis of wanting to increase margin and a lot of companies cut a lot of jobs during the pandemic, and it was a phenomenal way of uh ensuring that their margins would expand, just as they have been, but uh. If you're an ending over c operations, it does raise some question of of uh.

Really why? Okay, now, let's look at logitech here large all right! I do think this. This is a this is probably what's going to make corsair move. So if you're an uh, if you're looking at why corsair and logitech might be up it's probably because of logitech earnings, which i believe beat yesterday yeah we've beat on adjusted eps uh of uh. One point they came in with 1.55 dollars of earnings per share.

Consensus was only 1.1, so it's actually quite a substantial beat but uh oh yeah, and so okay see here's another one with the shortages folks. The shortages are not going to appease the fed here. Uh. It's now ge 3m.

This morning and logitech all complaining about supply chain shortages, lasting and uh. The answer here is logitech. Ceo expects semiconductor shortage to continue in 2022, no clear indication here on uh on when that might subside. However, they did raise their 2022 guidance, which was positive and remember.

This earnings season is going to be all about guide and not about um q4 earnings. In my opinion, now market is rotating slightly positive right now, which is good, looks like let's see here. Let's get qqq all right: let's take a peek here: oh yeah, okay, qqq has chosen a direction and that direction is slightly positive, very exciting, so slightly positive on qqq here and we're seeing more things turn green see. I always like looking at sort of the breadth, which is just sort of like the amount of stocks rotating in one direction and uh, and look at that.

We went from barely a half page of green here to wow to like almost three and a half pages of green in the matter of like what is this eight minutes? That's incredible! That's incredible! So eight minutes we get three and a half pages of green on weeble. That's really an incred, that's very, very positive uh! Let's take a look at how the individual ones are performing here. So oh yeah, look at that nice move here on tesla! That's good s! P 500: we have uh nice positive, trying to go pause it and now it's up in the air here, it's kind of barcoded. At the beginning of the day, it's a little unsure as to which direction to go.

Qqq yeah david here says maybe the beginning of another conviction-less rally yeah. This is the problem with with really a lot of what we've seen over the uh. The last eight weeks has been this uh stocks go up. They create an opportunity to short, which leads stocks to rotate down uh stocks rotate down and what happens when they rotate down.

Uh people stop and it accelerates the selling and then we get by by the dip that comes back in and we get this sort of back and forth. That's quite interesting bloomberg is calling uh jerome powell's plans. Basically, the quote: legacy defining soft landing for the u.s economy. Well, anyway, that is sort of their expectation.

Uh, let's see here random ross question in the stream before last with ross. When did he say he was pulling out of the market? Oh uh, that was when i think, the the second or third rate cycle hike, uh, that's an interesting question yeah that should have talked to him about that yesterday. That was very interesting, so uh, okay, this just seemed like overall positivity. Here, though, look at this i mean robin hood is up, which is very good uh.

Two percent on robin hood. Is that 1337.? Hey? That's that's our number. That's awesome. Uh you've got corsair yeah.

It tried to move up here coming right back down, uh tattooed chef. It's at 12 25 kind of slipping a little bit here. It does look like btc, making a nice little move here and uh yeah. I think the dow's kind of pain has slowed here a little bit.

Let me give this little refresh here. No now still down about 0.91 percent nasdaq future's still down about 1.72 and s p, still down 1.4 uh, take a look at uh btc, for example, here and uh btc, really trying to break out over here, uh uh out of the the the tether so to Speak of about 36 4 and really trying to push up to about 37.5. This is really a big push that we're making here. Okay, let's, let's see, if there's a particular yeah, it's it's not so much that the indices are green here, it's that we saw a massive shift in the amount, the breadth of individual stocks that that turned green.

That doesn't necessarily mean the indices have to turn green because remember, the indices are so heavily weighted by companies like apple and microsoft, and we have earnings expectations to contend with and take a look at apple here, folks, apple rotating down to uh, just over two percent Right now and uh, let me see here you know, revisions down on on iphone sales, probably not going to be too exciting. So let me look at after the market, okay yeah. So we have microsoft reports after the bell today and then tesla's after the bell. Tomorrow, of course, pass those earnings, tesla's earnings, in my opinion, will not at all hinge uh on uh uh will not at all hinge on what happens with um.

What's it called um trying to say ah tesla earnings in my opinion, will not cause the stock to go positive or negative. It will be jerome powell that causes the stock to go positive or negative in the afternoon. That's an expectation i have just because i don't really think we're going to get substantial surprises from the call tomorrow, maybe a little bit more of a clear product roadmap, some enthusiasm to balance out the downside of uh of no cyber truck anytime soon. You know maybe they'll throw up some pictures of the cyber truck uh, maybe they'll uh, who who knows who absolutely knows exactly what's gon na happen, but uh, whatever right, um we'll find out all right.

Did i buy any uv xy? No, i did not uh. Those are fun to play if you want to play the vix yeah the operating margins matter. But the thing is - and you got to remember this and because look i i talk about that - all the freaking time as well, that the operating margins matter at tesla, but one thing that you have to remember at tesla. Is they broke 30 last quarter? That was a huge milestone when they broke 30 last quarter uh.

The problem is, you know, going forward. What other kind of news are we going to get like now we're not going to break 30 again uh. So so you know i i i we might not. Even maintain 30, i i'm concerned that there's potentially more downside news in the show - and this is very short term - okay, very, very short term, and i want to be clear about that.

Tesla, in my opinion, as a long run, investment is is an absolutely incredible company and uh. I was extremely uh uh over uh invested in in tesla, compared to having any semblance of a diversified portfolio but uh, which has done well for me, but um yeah. I do think in the short term, we're gon na have some interesting pressures, so we'll see what happens, but so much of it comes down to the fed uh, which makes sense. You know remember when it when everything was don't fight the fed and now now it's kind of like uh uh crap, the fed's, not on our side anymore right, so it it's it's not in like.

In my opinion, i don't think it's actually crazy uh to be. You know, seeing a lack of good news. I think it's actually delusional to assume everything's gon na be good news in the short term. Uh and again, that's that's not suggesting that that oh everybody should be a bear now.

No, that's not suggesting that at all uh! Okay! So take a look at this folks. It does look like right now we're getting a little bit of excess pain in some individual stocks coming in here, uh yeah. I think you know here uh. This is well said, there's not a lot to be bullish about in the market.

Look, i here's! Here's the thing: okay, they're they're, i'm gon na, say this and i'm gon na we're gon na talk about some of these. These stocks, starting to drop. There are two kinds of creators on youtube. In my opinion, one creator will tell you what you want to hear because they don't want to lose subscribers.

The other creator will tell you the truth. Even if that means losing subscribers - and so you got to ask yourself - would you rather have the truth, but maybe that means in the short term their subscribership doesn't grow as much and and and some people get upset or would you rather have the the guy with A violin on the titanic: don't worry, everything's gon na be okay. Now that doesn't mean that i'm right, but i think i would be. I think it would be wrong not to tell you what i truly feel about something.

This is why - and i think this is so critical, then we're going to talk about stocks. This is this is why you know during the the uh, the amc, gme phase. I think it was extremely clear that any money that you were putting into amc or gme was 100, not for fundamental reasons. It was a hundred percent for momentum, hope and the movement, and that and as soon as that, that ends the price plummets right or some other fear, catalyst comes uh and that's exactly what's happened so um anyway.

That's a hard thing to say, though, because then then i remember when i would say those things during the amc days and then everybody's, like oh you're, you're, a shell for the suits, oh you're, bought out by the suits it's like again: choice, truth or subs anyway. Uh so ribbian's down about 7.8 percent right now, so we got a little bit of an acceleration of pain right here uh this is uh. This is not ideal. Here, uh we've got dd rotating down, which is really incredible because dede there was talk about dd uh.

You know essentially pushing to uh get de-listed in the u.s and then basically list on the hong kong stock exchange for to be redeemable for over eight dollars, but uh that that i i don't know what's happened with that, i don't think anything's really uh progressed here. Ooh amc and talks to refinance their debts: oh cool, uh, okay, so uh dd down what do we got here, ravi and how how's tesla performing? Because, if rivian's down like this, i feel like that might be a little bit of a pain in the oh yeah. A little u-turn there on on on tesla, so uh, okay. So what's what's happening here at the moment, we've got matterport down about 7.4 percent and that's a solid rotation down here.

That's that's quite painful uh again. Does it really make sense for the market to rally the day before j-pal was you know like potentially gon na rock pull us uh yeah breath is very poor in the market six stocks out one stock out of every six is positive. It's got an update on that uh pinterest bar piton, even pitons, read today, and it's had some some u-turns to the upside arc. Uh-Oh rk uh down about uh bouncing around so much here down about four percent.

Here's your arc chart look at that everything positive there for the first few minutes and then boom push to the downside. That's like a boom slap in the face; okay, a little green candlestick forming here. Let's, let's see here loose it down about three percent. Okay, i mean none of these prices are as bad as the depth of the pain that we saw yesterday.

Uh sofi uh, google tesla. Okay, all right, let's see if we get a little bit of a pop here again if this is just short term uh. Let's briefly also look to see what kind of news maybe has come back uh, you know, let's, let's take a look at that uh. Okay, let's see jimmy here complains, try telling us as you sell it before you sell.

Okay, look! I am so tired of this. I'm so tired of people suggesting that somehow i'm magically supposed to instantaneously know how to convey to you a complete one. Freaking 80. like this is this is quite frankly the most ignorant thing that you could say jimmy, and that is no offense to you, because you are here every day and i respect you, but it is absolutely ignorant.

Why is it ignorant because put yourself in the shoes of for two years saying buy the dip, buy the dip, buy the dip and, and you know, buying the dip is good to. How am i supposed to convey that? Ah crap there's a problem? Okay, now i can do two things i can lie and not reveal what i truly feel and just violin, or i could take a very short amount of time if you think about it and try to determine okay, what what can we do to properly explain why? I had a very abrupt change because it was abrupt. It happened over the course of about eight hours. So what happened in those eight hours right, that's difficult to do, and the fact that after i made my decision and had a plan and had the answers course, members knew within an hour.

I put together a 35 minute video within 24 hours. Could you go to congress, please i i let me ask you this: can you go to congress and get answers within 24 hours? Can you go to the fed and get answers within 24 hours? Do you even get disclosure within 24 hours? No, of course not. So like this unreasonable expectation that somehow one person, one person not like a team of people, but that somehow one person is able to to to to just instantly give you all of the answers, is absolutely asinine insane and ignorant put yourself in the shoes. And then you stop saying stupid stuff like that, because it's not that damn easy.

I did my best god damn it's almost like you'd, rather not have transparency so stupid, stupid complaining anyway, um all right. Let's see what's going on so let's see here: tesla, okay, okay, so so just volatility here, really uh, okay, so so so not you know. We saw this sort of red moving here and then got a little volatility. Okay, let's take a look at uh at some of the news in the back end here uh.

Let's take a look here, so, okay uh all right, so oh yeah and there's also news that nvidia is planning to uh, abandon its 40 billion dollar arm deal. This is interesting, so listen to this one nvidia is quietly preparing to abandon its purchase of arm from softbank. After making little to no progress on winning approval for the 40 billion deal, nvidia has told its partners. It didn't expect the transaction to close.

According to one person familiar with the matter, oh, oh, that's not good! That's not good uh! This! This was a big underlying uh hype. Movement for nvidia that uh essentially nvidia, would would uh would become this uh this. This massive conglomerate, almost like the the apple of the chip world right uh, so this is a little bit of an interesting uh uh. You know u-turn here the purchase here you go.

The purchase was poised to become the biggest semi-conductor deal in history when it was announced in september of 2020 has led to fierce backlash from regulators. The ftc sued to stop the transaction in december. Acquisition also faces resistance in china, where authorities are inclined to block the transaction, even if it wins approval elsewhere, wow, uh, okay, so uh. So that explains why we've got a little bit of pain, nvidia in nvidia now to keep in mind.

This is one of our larger s. P uh plays right here uh. So if you know the s p really moves off of uh off of nvidia here, uh to some degree right uh it is, it is a top 15 position and the indices do tend to move uh quite quite heavily folk or are quite heavily focused uh on Um, what's it called on on the big movers here right? So that's quite interesting. 4.7 on video! No, that's that's a big move! Folks, look at nvidia's market cap isn't like 800 bill or something or it used to be it's probably way less.

Now. Let me see 600 or so. Oh my gosh, okay, so nvidia was almost a trillion dollar chip manufacturer folks. It is now trading for 557 billion dollars.

That is that's a big shave down. You know uh. Yesterday there was a lot of talk by the way about cyber security that cyber security warfare from china yeah. I'm sorry, not china.

I mean china is always going to be a concern, but from russia would potentially lead to a rise in uh in cyber security stocks, and i will say i do believe, there's some incredible discounts to be had on cyber security stocks. The question just becomes how much further do they have to fall, and i think this is where uh one of the big things that has motivated this, this at least temporary shift by me and by the dip is, is that i i actually do believe that we Are we are so far from mass capitulation in the stock market that uh that there could be some really ridiculous sell-offs? If jerome powell goes dirty on us, i really hope he doesn't uh and uh. You know if, if uh, if he turns bullish this market, u turns quickly, but i just don't trust the guy as much anymore uh. You know i've.

I saw what he did in february of 2021. I saw what he did in 2018: uh uh. You know janet yellen and joe biden are so politicizing this inflation issue, which makes sense. It is a very political issue and they're putting so much pressure on powell, like janet yellen, went from somebody who was relatively neutral in the markets as uh chairwoman of the fed uh.

You know she i feel like was was very apolitical, but as soon as she joined the treasury department. Oh my gosh, that political hat came on uh all everything's about the the left progressive agenda now which that's fine like i'd rather just know. Okay, you've changed your mind. Like that's.

Okay, i understand now. Your progressive left agenda is what you're pushing right now, which again fine there. There are benefits in their drawbacks. The problem is in order to perpetuate that agenda.

You need inflation to go down uh as you. You may have heard yesterday, uh that uh, what was yesterday oh uh, joe biden, called uh, called somebody a stupid son of a bee and and uh. I actually thought it was like. Oh my gosh biden's in there.

I actually thought it was hilarious, uh and uh. It was that it was it was. You know, i thought relatively funny, not much more than that, though there was no like news to go along with it, but anyway uh it was. It was about the question of.

Is inflation bad for your for your policies and your administration and biden's kind of basically sarcastically responding with like no duh, it's bad right, uh, but anyway, so uh? I do think that that the political politician of uh inflation is not going to help j-pal be uh. You know bullish on uh on on the stock market, we'll see, though, okay, so a lot of stocks here, just dragging along the bottom uh. Let's see here, porteros gosh, seven dollars arkamoto mataport a little bit of a u-turn here at uh 950.. I feel like yesterday.

It bounced around that level. Two. It went to nine four, oh no, it went to nine. Oh my gosh uh, hmm cloudflare, trying to get the the intraday action here.

Arc is bouncing around negative five. If we go to that, one minute chart here yeah, it's just really, i feel, like things are struggling to take off like it's the engine today, that's kind of like remember river, and then you get it on like and then it crashes you know just like it's Just not going anywhere here um. If anything, though tesla's doing well. Maybe it's because you know it's a lot easier to start an electric engine that doesn't make any sense.

I mean it does make sense, but anyway, okay, so uh, logitech, uh we've got a couple percent over here. We've got gtech.63. Look at this folks. What happened to my three pages of green look? Where did it go? I now have what is that one and a quarter pages of green and and a lot's red again that that was uh.

That was quite strange here. So let me take a look to see what potential news has changed here. Um! Oh interesting! Oh, oh! I want to read this: this is no bueno hold on a second uh. This this could potentially be.

This is the this has to do with the suits uh standby, for an update from the suits. Here we go okay. Here we go people setting up their puts. I think that's exactly what's happening and that's literally what it says: quant trend, chasers trend, chasers dude zoom, get out of here.

Nobody wants you go away, zoom, it's so annoying that that can i go to reader view, gotcha all right wall street quants that chase market trends have flipped decisively short against both the s p and the nasdaq for the first time since the pandemic hit setting themselves Up as a force that could intensify the rut. Okay, here's what we need to do folks, i'm gon na i'm gon na read more of this, but we need to pull up uh the shorts. Let's pull up our short data which uh i pay 700 a month. Just for one stupid piece of software that gives us a little bit faster access to the short data, and that's because y'all love that i word the inflection points.

Yeah yeah, i love the. I words uh there you go veto verse, make your own decisions. That is critical hold on. Let me listen to this really quick.

Well, it's better 113.8, so outperformed with regard to expectations, but sequentially it's following an unrevised 115.8. So two points lower, but better than expected. If we look at the uh current situation, it's at 90.8 versus sequentially 96.9, with a subtle revision down to 95.4, so consumer confidence up slightly they're a little slow there on the banner, but a slight little beat there on consumer confidence. That's actually interesting! I think.

That's probably um, like a lead, a little bit more of a leading indicator that that potentially consumers are a little bit more like okay, we're kind of over this whole omicron thing i will say i don't know if it was the football game yesterday, but i went To uh cafe in the morning and i'll tell you both of them were just the most dead i have ever seen. Uh, i think that's a little abnormal, because usually the market seems or you know, businesses seem to be pretty pretty busy these days. But let me see if i can get uh. I know, let's, let's go spy it here.

Let's see what we can get so spy short interest as a percentage of float yeah. You are seeing a little bit of an inflection point up er here. Let me move myself there. We go all right, so so you're looking right here, ish where the mouse is, and so s p short interest, slightly moved up here, a little bit.

Let's just look at just a few stocks here we're not going to look at too much here, still high on lucid about 18 percent, sure yeah. That's definitely a rotation up over the last couple weeks here on qqq to uh 13 short uh, the spy's 19 short, which is incredible uh kind of similar here on rk. Let me go to like arc f, for example, because fintech's just been getting wrecked, uh. Ten percent short okay, that pound tier, is very, very low short.

Let me go to like i'm just going to do a few here. I don't want to be stuck in this forever here. Matterport has actually rotated down a little bit, probably because it's gotten so inexpensive. Let's try like sofi uh yeah sofa has actually rotated up uh in its shorts here recently open kind of flat at about 15.

The fintech space, i think, has been very easy to short hood uh, eight percent there tattooed chef. Let me try, i don't know, what's what what's uh yeah shift technologies? That's a good one! Uh, okay, cool all right daughter, a shout out! Well, i don't know if it's me or maya so we'll give it both ways. Whether shout out to mia shout out to maya, i'm gon na guess it's maya shout out to maya, i don't know which one it is, but i'm gon na go with both all right. So um, let's see here all right.

I want a daughter one day. That's so awesome all right. Look at dwack, though folks 4.8, all of a sudden here, uh this. This is just the this is the irrationality here of the markets uh, but that's, okay! You know you got to have some irrationality somewhere.

Not i mean look. This is kind of gross folks. There is not a lot here that uh, that that is, that is very, very delicious. Let me see if tesla's still holding on yeah, barely barely kind of boring kind of boring, uh.

Okay, so pins, let's see here, okay, playboy's down nine percent shot. How is shopify down nine point: three percent: oh my gosh. What happened? Protara down, coinbase down about seven percent uh highly on matterport uh, these guys, all now down five percent down uh now shift tech. Another 4.8! Look how quickly it gave up that rally.

Yesterday, uh etsy down 4.65 nvidia is about the same spot. Oh well. We were going to keep looking at that uh that short article there on quant. Here's qqq folks now down three percent on qqq arc, folks down 5.1.

There's no good news to be had in this market. It's another little dead cat bounce rally from yesterday. Not a surprise, it's honest. It is honestly, exhausting though okay, the s p, flirted with the correction on monday fast money, traders known as commodity trading advisors, were busy unwinding positions and accelerating the sell-off uh.

It leaves them bearishly, positioned against both the u.s benchmark and the tech gauge for the first time since march 2020, yet strategists say that this volatility sensitive cohort is far from capitulation, raising the risk further of further de-leveraging uh feeding into the future stock turmoil. Let me go to. I just want to see uh potential. I i don't actually think we've seen a lot of liquidations yet on uh on crypto uh, let's see here, uh coin crypto liquidations coin glass, huh yeah.

We really have not seen a substantial amount of liquidations. I mean we did on the 20th when we really pushed a little bit more towards uh uh, the the mid 30s here uh. You could see that here on the chart, the yellow line going there to the mid 30s, but we really have not seen a lot of liquidations as we've been bobbing around, and i really think that the pain threshold for bitcoin comes when we drop under 30 and Then we're going to see a lot of liquidations, probably gap down to like 27 bounce back to 29 and then the next level of liquidation is 25. 20 and that that brings you down to like 19..

I hope not, i, i really hope not, but i think that's where people really feel safe with the leverage like. Oh we're not going to go there and i think that's where the the quickest quickest pain might end up coming uh and remember: we went down to about 29 to 28 in uh in may, so it's not so terribly unreasonable to say that usa and i don't I don't want it to happen. I look and i think this is what what one thing i want everybody to remember too, is like i don't want the stock market to go down uh, you know i i want to be the biggest cheerleader for it and i really believe in america long run. We're gon na be the best growing economy.

We're gon na have the most efficient companies for the for the years going forward anyway, uh it leaves quantz bearishly, positioned against both the u.s benchmark and tech gauge for the first time since march of 2020.. Yet strategists say that oh yeah well, okay, i already read that uh u.s equities have endured a tumultuous start in absence of a fed, dovish pivot. Tomorrow it would be difficult to see the market recovering simply because investors moved already to underweight positioning yeah. I i the fed literally just pivoted bearish.

I don't know, i don't know how they're going to go dovish tomorrow, you know what maybe i don't get it though, but okay uh this could be. You see here undoubtedly a sense that we're in a new regime from the volatility sense current market simply continues to de-risk excess accumulation of exposures built over a long time, uh a long-term period of fed's suppressed volatility. Oh that's an interesting phrase, fed suppressed volatility. I do think we'll see more volatility and probably lower lows.

We've gone from a situation where, on the near-term basis, people need to sell the bounces rather than buy the dip. Oh that's an interesting phrase. We haven't heard much of as well sell the bounce back at jpm. The team sees the potential for trend followers to add to any more selling positioning.

Among the cohort of roughly 340 billion of uh. Systematic investors fell, okay, whatever all right. Let's take a look here. Um, ah thanks another name, i appreciate you and your support.

Uh and again, look you know most, i i you you see this all all the time people get hate in social media and the first thing they do is they go into a hole they disappear. They take a vacation, they go okay, you know i'm going to take some time to think about it, i'll be back, and it's just i'm not going anywhere and that's what i promised. I didn't promise that i i made two promises, one, i'm not leaving and number two i'm not selling my amc stock. I kept my promise doesn't mean i can't trade, my portfolio.

I want to do something with my money. I can do whatever i want. The exception.