Recession has officially started. But what effect does this have on the wider market. How how exactly is this going to impact the amc squeeze and most importantly. What happens well stay tuned.

And let's make some money and i want to dive straight. In with the key information. So wall street silver tweeted saying let the denial begin. He said now we find out if the fed is really gonna shrink their balance sheet and keep raising rates in the middle of a recession.

And he said. My guess is maybe we see one more rate hike in september. Because it's going to be incredibly difficult to do more than that obviously cnbc posted this article saying gdp fell 09. Percent in the second quarter.

The second straight decline and a strong recession signal. But you may say tomorrow recession isn't defined as two straight quarters of negative gdp growth. The white house just changed that it's completely irrelevant well as simon retweeted. He said one two consecutive quarters of negative gdp growth has been the accepted definition of a recession since 1974 and two 10 out of the most recent 10 previous instances of two consecutive quarters of negative gdp growth have been officially labeled as a recession by nber so there is that too the nber is the national bureau of economic research who are basically the guys who get to decide if we're officially in a recession or not so therefore going by all previous definitions of a recession since 1974.

We are officially now in a recession. Now you may see tom we're not officially in a recession. Just yet because the labor market is still very very strong. But again.

I think it's also important to note that before all previous recessions. The labor market was also very very strong back in 2007 and early 2008 unemployment was at an all time low just before the recession. Actually started and therefore. Even though unemployment right.

Now is very very low as the recession is just starting. I expect unemployment to skyrocket over say the next six months during the period of the recession. Which is basically starting now that's when employment will begin to rise as more and more jobs are lost and we're already starting to see this in the tech sector. Even in the largest of companies.

Many companies like apple twitter and shopify have already cut 10 to 20 of their workforce. Again. We're also seeing crypto companies and startups also cutting 10 to 20 percent maybe. Even more of their workforce and therefore over the next three six nine months unemployment will start to rise and therefore even by the fed's definition and the white house definition.

We will be in a recession. Now the reason why second quarter gdp was negative and the reason. Why i think this trend could continue can be seen from this tweet from just lancaster. We can see in quarter.

One and quarter. Two government spending did decrease in quarter. One we saw exports and imports decreasing. But in quarter.

Two the only thing that was basically propping up gdp from falling. Even more negative was that exports did increase now i think next quarter in quarter. Three. I expect exports to decrease again due to the current rising prices.

And again. If we look at the gross private domestic investment aka private investment in quarter. One it was slightly propping up gdp. But it was absolutely destroyed in quarter.

Two many people including retail investors and investment funds and institutions peeled back their investments in quarter. Two. And that trend is likely to continue into quarter. Three as well again.

I expect this private investment to further decrease in quarter. Three along with the exports and imports and government spending as well now in terms of personal consumption. The personal consumption of goods fell further. But the personal consumption of services actually increased again again in quarter.

Three. I expect this to stay fairly similar. But overall. I expect quarter three gdp to fall further once again but fortunately average ape tweeted an article from february 28.

2009. He said while much of the economy is teetering between bust and bailout the movie industry has been startled by a box office surge. He said. It seems as if everyone is going to the movies with ticket sales this year up.

175 to 17. Billion dollars during the recession. Attendance also jumped by nearly 16 therefore during a recession like the recession. We're currently in right now theater chains like amc tend to surge and they tend to do well.

During a recession. Going to the movies is a very cheap date night. Idea and it's a very cheap entertainment evening as well instead of staying in a hotel or going on holiday. People can instead go to the movies for a much cheaper price especially with all the deals that amc does run.

I expect ticket sales to increase even further during the current recession. I think this is good news for amc from two different angles. Not only is the recession going to crash the stock market further causing those liquidations. But boosted ticket sales are going to help boost the fundamentals of amc as well further destroying that bear case you're going to have amc stock price rising as a result of larger ticket sales and amc success during the recession.

While the wider market is being liquidated. But interestingly. This also seems to be the case for all previous. Recessions as well it says back in.

1982 theater attendance. Jumped. 101 to about 118. Billion.

Attendees. So not only did attendance jump back in 2008. And 2009. Attendance also jumped back in 1982.

Therefore. It seems like amc is the perfect natural hedge for the coming or current recession. And is also the perfect hedge against the crashing market as a result of their amc squeeze now on top of this. The recession is also going to be felt across the housing market.

As well nar research. Tweeted saying. According to nar buying a home in june of 2022 was about 80 percent more expensive than in june of 2019. It said nearly a quarter of buyers who purchased a home three years ago would be unable to do so now because they no longer earn the qualifying income to buy a median priced home today as a result of this rate increase and the price increases in these properties.

These properties are more expensive and also the mortgage payment is more expensive on top of that now combine that with 40 year high inflation. No wonder why people can't afford homes or can't afford new homes any longer. Bloomberg tweeted saying frothy prices in new zealand empty buildings in new york and a mortgage revolt in china have the capacity to make the global housing slowdown. Something much much worse.

Bloomberg is now saying the housing slowdown could become a global meltdown. If the housing slowdown turns into a fully fledged outright housing crash with prices across the us dropping by 30 40 50 or even more that would certainly exacerbate the problem of the current recession. A housing crash would cause the stock market to fall further and it would cause more and more damage to the economy as well now again i'm not saying a housing crash is a good thing. While it would cause the stock market to crash further causing more liquidations and a greater chance of the amc squeeze.

I don't think a housing crash is necessary but obviously if a housing crash does happen at least we can use our amc squeeze money to scoop up some cheap real estate deals now. I said that china were ahead of us in the current chinese bailouts as a result of the chinese stock market and real estate market crash. But it seems like all these chinese banks are already starting to experience. Liquidity problems and capital problems cny tweeted.

Saying. China's bank and regulator. Cbirc. Says to support local governments in replenishing capital of small and medium sized banks via special bonds to ensure delivery of property projects.

The last bear standing says that this sounds like capital problems at small and medium sized banks and he said given the massive exposure to the collapsing property sector and the history of grossly under reported non performing loans. It's likely that some chinese rural and mid sized banks are insolvent today. He said of course none will admit this reality and it's nearly impossible for an outsider to determine independently due to lack of clear and reliable information. But it's only once these banks become illiquid that their insolvency becomes unavoidable and a bank failure will not happen based on a reasonable expectation of future losses.

But rather it will happen when one runs out of money all these small and medium sized banks are taking heavy hits on these loan defaults as a result of these property developers not being able to complete projects and mortgage buyers or home buyers not paying off their mortgage therefore. Many of these small and medium sized banks are struggling and are likely experiencing liquidity problems now the exact same thing could happen in the us as well if this current housing slowdown turns into a global meltdown. If people stop paying their mortgages in the us as well it's likely that many small and medium sized banks in the us maybe even large banks as well will be struggling and are likely to collapse. Now.

Finally tavi. Costa tweeted. Saying 774 ceos have left their roles this year in the us alone. He said.

That's the highest number in the last 20 years and he asked what do they know that you don't as a result of the current recession. Many ceos are trying to escape before they get publicly shamed and publicly ousted for their failing companies. If any of these ceos have been acting illegally or trying to hide anything or cover. It up by leaving now they potentially avoid future litigation.

If they leave before the crash and they leave before the recession. They can take all of their money and live the rest of their life fairly happily. But it seems like many of these ceos no recession is around the corner. They know the recession is happening right now and that's why they're leaving early.

But guys be sure to let me know what you think down in the comments. Below and as always guys be sure to ding that notification bell. Because that way you'll be alerted when i upload a new video cheers.