Hey everybody happy wednesday welcome to this week in housing - uh, not inside my office in my house, rather appropriate for this week in housing. So we have an all-star panel of rock star agents, team leaders, true professionals, in their marketplaces to talk about the market and, of course, my good friend and co-host david childers from keeping current matters um, i'm going to be very straight with you guys sitting here in The united states, specifically in dallas last night, i was texting with david wow. There's a lot of uncertainty right now in our country and what's been interesting, is i actually said to him just being very candid with you all my friends david? Should we do the show tomorrow right? Should we do it and, of course you know, david's response was, of course we should do the show, and i knew the second. He said it.

What his his intention was in times of uncertainty. We need to create certainty. In times of uncertainty, we, my friends, need to create certainty for ourselves for our clients, for our team, for our family, for the right mindset to focus on things we can control and then this morning, as david and i were chatting, we were talking about the fact That i know a lot of people and you do too that sold a lot of houses when clinton was the president. I know a lot of people that sold a lot of houses when george bush was the president.

I know a lot of people that sold a lot of houses when obama was the president when trump's the president and whoever's next. What i know is this housing is always in housing is always in, and it always matters so today our focus is to give you more certainty, and we give you more certainty through giving you more data points right, more facts, more more things for you to discuss To share this morning, i was on the phone uh doing a coaching session with one of our clients, uh dj and lindsay, and also with betsy and uh guys, steve and all these rockstar team leaders and everyone said the same thing. I rely on keeping current matters, especially in these times. These are the times when it's not about my opinion.

It's about what the data says. It's about what the facts say. What the interest rates are the deals that are happening and our ability to express that to the marketplace, so i'm super excited if you're with us, whether you're with us right now live or you're seeing this in the future. So let's do some introductions.

I want to go ladies first glenda baker. We take a second and share with everybody who you are, where you work and how many buyers and sellers are you and your team helping on an annual basis, hey tom thanks, so much for having me today. My name is: glenda baker, i'm a real estate agent in atlanta, georgia. I run an all-female seal team.

Here, three of us sell and three admin we'll do about 150 transactions this year and last year we did 135 and business for us is great. We looked at our volume and our volume is actually higher year to date than it was all of last year. Congratulations and thank you saying for the people that are watching right now. Remember the average real estate professional sells between three and five homes a year.

Maybe if this video was sent to you on facebook by you, know your agent and you're watching this as a home, buyer or seller, someone that's doing a hundred and fifty transactions a year is is like basically the greatest brain surgeon in your town at that level Of performance so glenda, congratulations on your success! Treasure davis. Take a second tell us who you are again same thing where you work and how many buyers and sellers you and the team are helping on an annual basis. Great. Thank you so much for having me today.

My name is treasurer davis, we are in colorado, springs colorado um. We have a team of 10 sales agents, including myself, that sell three of those we onboarded during covid. We have four we're on boarding now and we have an admin team of seven. So we're very admin heavy and we will do 450 transactions this year we are up from last year.

Our volume is up from last year um and we work primarily strictly military. So when we went virtual, we already had that in line because we're used to our clients not being here so uh. We have had an unusual year but a great year, um professionally, and we're just excited to be here today. Yeah.

Thank you so much, and i would say when you said admin heavy, i would say that you are service heavy. Is that another way of describing it? That is the best way to describe it. Yeah yeah, congrats and uh tim smith from southern california. Tim take a second same thing: introduce yourself how many buyers and sellers you're, helping and and how big is your team thanks so much tom happy to be here with glenda and treasure and david? What like a treat in an honor for me, so we work in orange, county california, from san clemente to huntington harbor, mainly coastal, but we'll do anything.

I have 15 agents, i have 10 service or support staff. We do between 250 and 300 transactions a year at roughly 2.2 million is our average purchase price and i love being a realtor. I still remember, 10, 25 years ago i went to an appointment and a realtor pulled up and like it was like this dreamy moment. He got out of his car, i'm like that's what i want to be.

I just want to be a realtor, yes and you and all three of you do it very well, so so david everyone knows you because we've been doing this show for you know quite some time now. I want to thank you always for everything that you and the team at uh keeping current matters to, but the people are really here because they want to see the slides they want to know. What's going on in mind of the people at keeping current matters. So, like always, my friends david's going to show us some slides and then our all-star panel we're going to discuss them.

We're going to talk about them. You can make comments inside facebook. You should absolutely tag four or five of your friends and say: hey check this out, whether they're on your service team or their agent friends of yours, to really keep the positive conversation going so david. Take it away, yeah, i i think tom.

You know you mentioned us talking last night this morning and uh. You know, uh 2020s brought a lot of uh of crazy things. We started this at the end of march talking about this and here's where i want to kind of kind of maybe start today, because i think it's an important point where we sit right now is what can we control and what can we cannot? You know you know not control right now. Um, i'm gon na bring a lot of things today that maybe are reminders that the team has uh, has found and and pulled up and some new new things that i think are going to help us uh be able to bring some clarity and some certainty.

You started off this way, you know in in an uncertain world, let's be the voice of certainty where we can and what we can control and so and that's our job today and i'm going to start out with a with a few quotes and a couple of Things in the market, you know we oftentimes say you know it's not good news, it's not bad news, it's just the news and if we take that approach, i'm going to share this slide. Many of you maybe remember it. We've talked about it. Coming from the wall street journal, we used it back this summer.

Saying news stories often describe the coronavirus induced global economic downturn as the worst since the great depression. Yet for many, the comparison does more to terrify than to clarify to say that we live right now. In in a world that headlines do more to terrify than clarify, i believe is, is absolutely accurate and i think our job right now, uh, you know in our businesses, in what we do every day. Uh is to clarify for people what is happening and we're going to talk about that today in the economy uh in our business in in you know, in health related concerns.

How do we clarify that for people, but i brought another quote in here from adam data solutions, the chief production offer. He says this is very interesting: home prices and seller profits across the nation continue racking up new highs, as the housing market remains relatively immune from the economic havoc caused by the coronavirus pandemic. It's almost if housing, if the housing market and the overall economy are operating in two different worlds. So let's realize that right now we've been fortunate in our business uh to operate in a time where you know home and housing has, you know, thrived through the pandemic.

A lot of businesses, a lot of people not experiencing that, and certainly those uh of us. You know that lived through 2008 understand what it's like to be in a business, that's being heavily impacted by a downturn. You know the biggest issue continuing in our business right now. Uh is the lack of available inventory, so this is a unique slide.

Giving a look over the last year of what inventory looks like in in so today. I think talking about okay. How do we address this and i'm going to talk about a study from zillow that just came out in just a minute, but but no doubt across the country? The need is for more available listings, more homes for those that that are looking to purchase them and, and we sit in an under supply across the country relative to the number of homes on the market. So david go back a slide.

Go back a slide. I want everyone just to read that again, home prices and seller profits across the nation continue racking up new highs, as the housing market remains relatively immune from the economic habit caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Glenda. When you read that treasure, when you read that tim, when you read that you you three uniquely sit in front of home buyers and sellers every day, many of you two to three times a day before you even look at your team.

When you hear all this, what goes through your mind? What what's what's racing inside those brilliant? You know real estate minds of yours, let's go to glenda first well, tom there's never been a time where clarity was more important. You have to be the clarity you have to be able to deliver it and, depending on the data used to there, was a lot of latitude a lot of room for error, especially in pricing. There's not that latitude anymore. You've got to be the clarity.

You've got to speak with certainty. There is no more. I think i can get this for your house. That is not an option.

People are depending on you for data they're, depending on you for clarity, very, very specific numbers for us. When i look at inventory rates, it's all over the board, depending on the price range here in atlanta, we were one of the first states that were released after the pandemic, so believe it or not - we've kind of been doing business as usual. So for us um, you know, there's been some impact from the virus, but not a lot, but people are looking for clarity. They're not putting their home on the market for kicking, tires, yeah, yeah treasure.

What's your what's your interpretation of those those first two slides in that inventory? Yes, so um! For us, the inventory is a little bit lower than that um we're almost to two percent in colorado. Um springs, which is very, very low for us um. We usually get a little bit lower during the holidays and that's not a military in the military world. They call it pcs season.

That's when military service members move. We have not. So we typically have two major move cycles in colorado springs. We did not have those this year because of the um virus and people being shut down and military not being able to travel.

So it's been as of today, we've gone um, we've gone up a level, so we're now safer at home, again um for us, but we have always operated at a level of doing things at a higher level of safety to make sure that our staff is safe. Our team is safe, our clients are safe, so we're doing above and beyond what other people are doing, because we want to stay open because we were shut down before, and so we learn from that time. We're doing some things um just to keep everybody safe. That's obviously number one you've said that tom this whole time safety.

First, we have taken that to heart and made sure that everybody is safe, um, and so we are really hoping to have another military move cycle beginning of next year, which will jump start ours. Just for context, color springs have has five military bases, so i'm kind of coming at a different place than everybody else's. I mean we have a lot of people that leave here to go to germany to italy and obviously, when this happened that transitioned a lot um. So that's a little bit different for us but for i completely agree with glenda, as i always do, she's amazing, but we have to be clear and we have to be.

What are your goals? What are you looking to do and really making sure that if we can't facilitate it, we're up front and we're honest and we've always been that way? But now we have to be. We have to tell people the hard truth um sometimes, but the truth doesn't mean. Never it just may not mean not right now. Maybe it means rent your home out.

Maybe it means something else, but it's looking at their story and their journey and customizing the plan that works well for them and that's important for all of us. I know everybody on this panel. Does that and we've done that before coronavirus? Sure thank you tim same question. How do you interpret this? I mean you're along the coast you're in a in a very high-end marketplace: um lots of people probably wanting to test the market.

Hearing about people paying absorbent prices for homes that are selling in seconds, what's your interpretation? Well, i'm looking at a little different angle from the slides, so orange county is one of those places that i have always had the opinion, and i know that we are the most undervalued major metropolitan area in the world and the reason being is because our lifestyle Is so great coronavirus? Everything that's happened this year has exacerbated it. In march we started seeing people stuck at home and thinking i don't want to live here anymore. I need the pool, i need the beach access, even though they may have been impacted economically financially. They were making moves as things started to ramp up with the coronavirus.

It hit us very softly here. Our political approach looked more like pep rallies. It's safe, the beaches were open, so we started seeing demand increase at 10 times the normal level from people in dense cities like new york, la san francisco, uh chicago, but then everybody else in the western united states being stuck at home for all this time. Having kids at home are like, we want the beach house, we've always wanted.

We've seen some record cells this year, even amidst all the uncertainty, because the coronavirus was a paradigm shift for how people feel about where they live, how they want to spend time with their family, and so many people reallocated funds that they had for retirement or other Things to how they live today and that's been the single best thing for our marketplace. As far as inventory, we're down at 2003 levels, which is scarce for us and we're in demand the highest - it's ever been only matched a couple of times, 2012 and 2006. So our big challenge right now is where do people? If you called me and said, i want a beach home in laguna beach, i'd tell you, i don't really have anything to show you that's what we're finding so unlocking new inventory is going to be the key in 2021. I believe that 2021 for us will be the greatest pricing year.

We've ever seen for sellers, even amidst the uncertainty with this election. So the key for us and taking some stuff out of glenda baker's book, finding a way to connect with people with gifting and other things always being in front, because i think they're going to be the people that just want to move that are realistic sellers. But now we're going to unlock all the unrealistic sellers so really interviewing our clients is going to be the key on their level and motivation of selling and their expectations. So brilliant insights from all three of you and really david.

They kind of set you up for the next few slides, so just for the watching out there we've got glenda baker from atlanta, we've got treasure davis from colorado springs, we've got tim smith from orange county california, it's this week in housing and and there's some interesting Data we're going to go into, we we've discovered, there's basically three primary reasons that buyers and sellers are nervous today and, as tim was saying, if we're going to unlock the inventory in 2021 and beyond, we need to understand what their concerns are and then educate them Right so they can make good decisions so so david, let's, let's dig into the uncertainty yeah. I think that you know i heard you know glenda. You said clarity. You know from folks tim.

You said uncertainty. The one thing i can. There are a lot of things. We can't say we don't have a crystal ball on.

You know, what's going to happen tomorrow, even or or in the coming weeks, but what we can say is this time of uncertainty will pass as we move into into next year. Now it's very interesting zillow came out with a report that i'm going to share here last week around the top reasons. Homeowners are not putting their homes on the market very interesting right now, as we talk about unlocking inventory talking about looking uh forward, but also saying okay, where are we at right? Now? You know 31 percent, you see their say financial uncertainty and no doubt uh right now in the the news and everything we've been through for the pandemic there. There are questions financially, we've been talking about that uh, for you know, uh the last months that we've been doing this tom on this week in housing is what's happening in the economy.

So i'm gon na unpack that in just a minute 34, one out of three say life's just too uncertain right now, you know and and we're going to address that and it's a very valid concern for people to say i feel uncertainty from every angle. You know, and and the one that's right here in front of us right now - is the election but but they've been so many things to cause uncertainty and still one out of four uh say: hey, i'm concerned due to the pandemic um. You know we got to remember that as we do this every day and glendale brought the point in uh in being out there in the market that there's still a lot of people. That say, you know what i have concerns about bringing people into my home and you know the safety of putting my house in the market so very interesting study.

If we, we kind of start to unpack this and uh and maybe start with the first one of financial uncertainty, i want to take you back through a couple of slides. I pulled some things that we had talked about early on uh, that i know many of you used relative to the economy. We've just seen. Third quarter uh gdp, what they call the uh initial estimate for gdp.

But if we go back to april 6th, i pulled a slide from uh presentation. Many of you uh. You know remember this. We talked about a v-shaped recovery, i'm not saying, let's get focused on whether it's a b right now, but experts were saying hey.

We saw a little bit of dip in the first quarter. We're gon na take this massive uh. You know dip down in the second quarter and then in the third quarter of this year. We're gon na see this rebound this this economic rebound and and what actually happened.

We saw that come out last week, um at 33.1 percent the economy growing in that advanced estimate, initial estimate of gross domestic product in this country. So those of you that use that slide that got out there that helped give your clients the certainty around that i think you can bring some of these things back and and certainly show them hey. This is what experts were saying, and this is what what happened. You know, there's been so much news in the uh election cycle that it's very hard to decipher on what is happening economically.

What is happening with stimulus, what's happening with the recovery relative to consumer spending and all the things that we've talked about and helping people say. Okay, this is what happened. This is the impact of the pandemic. Here's how the economy is recovering.

Now, i'm not sitting here saying that there's no worries there, there's nothing that that we need to talk about. This is a rosy scenario. I'm going to bring some sobering information as well relative to economic recovery, but i think, as we look at this, we can look also across the country and say the consumer is returning to spending patterns. Now this is a look across the u.s by state of the change in consumer spending as compared to january 1st and overall in the us, consumer spending is down 3.7 as compared to the first of the year, and you can see by state anywhere.

You know the most there within you know, ten percent of where they were january. First now a lot of this if you're, if you're following this story, has been driven by a stimulus package. You also know that you know we've had this question of. Is there a stimulus package? Is there going to be another one on the way? I think wall street and most experts are saying, hey, no matter who wins the election, we're likely to see another stimulus package very soon, which is going to bode well for consumers.

So i think, as we look at that certainty, we can expect that you know that stimulus package to come in in in watching what experts are saying there and that to positively affect consumer spending and recovery. Now, most recently in the wall street journal last week, they said this. They said the u.s won't be a slouch when it's gdp numbers came out thursday. Now this was prior to thursday, but i pulled this quote because it's important economists are forecasting growth at 30.

At a 32 percent annualized pace that came in at 33.1 just over the expectation, a record-shattering number that will underscore a stronger than expected rebound from the effects of the pandemic, so what's happening economically we're seeing a stronger than expected rebound in the third quarter. But let's keep reading here. The headline number, however, will partially max with so far an incomplete recovery in what appears to be a slowing recovery. So what they're saying here is we don't have a complete picture right now of economic recovery in this country we see a stronger than expected rebound, but as we go into the winter as we see rising coronavirus cases as we deal with the effects of the pandemic And unemployment it appears to be slowing, so they don't say it appears to be retracting.

It appears to be constricting rather continuing to recover, but to slow - and i think, looking at that from an economic standpoint using some of that information to help our clients see what's happening right now, will help them say: okay, what's the right decision for my family, given Everything going on in the economy and the the economic uncertainty that i feel so david. I want to know from tim glenda, treasurer tim, i'm gon na go to you first you're sitting down with a client that has financial uncertainty. How do you educate that person? How do you help that person and i want to know ladies same question, i mean it's interesting because we're all looking at this from the perspective we're sitting in, i am not seeing a ton of financially uncertainty in my area, i mean, if anything, we're really real Estate, heavy, we are in an area where we have a lot of second homeowners, so it's like, i think, there's uncertainty in the discretionary spend. But as i'm looking i'm in a 10 story building - and i have two there's three cars in the parking lot and it's after nine and we're in november - i mean i haven't seen more than 30 cars in this parking lot for two.

So when we're talking financially uncertainty, one of the things that always comes back in our conversations is it comes back to certainty at home. Certainty where i live so we're having a lot of conversations based around reallocating to make sure, because everybody that i'm working with has really had that paradigm shift of like living today is the most important thing that i can do forget about the rest. So it's more conversations around that and how we can reallocate what we need to do: downsize upside second homes. So it's a little different from where i'm standing.

So that's how to answer that question yeah when linda same same question. Maybe you know what are you hearing? Are you are you hearing from the clients that are like i'm, i want to move, but i'm not certain and and how are you educating him so tom, so i'm in atlanta, georgia, headquarters of delta many headquarters of marriott um, the many in minna headquarters of marriott. So 17 000 laid off from delta 8 000 laid off from marriott. For us i mean there's a huge impact, we're also the headquarters of home depot that are hiring 3 000 in their e-commerce department.

Home depot has no plans to bring anybody back to the corporate headquarters right now. Their productivity is up from their client from their employees working from home. So for us there are a lot of dynamics going on what i'm seeing more when it comes to selling and buying is my people with delta. They can't sell their house and qualify and move to the other house, downsize right, size, lateral size because they don't have a job anymore and that's what what we're dealing with is.

I can't get bob and susie out of house a because they don't know that they can qualify for house b, because nobody has a job anymore um, because a lot a lot of times it was the pilot, it was the flight attendant. They were married, double income that 17 000 of them lost. So for me right now, the most important thing is sitting down and understanding. What is that? What is the need like? Where are they mentally? In atlanta, the average person has 177 000 in positive equity in their home, so it's not like 2008, where they were upside down, so they have positive equity, but but they take that equity out.

What are they doing with it? So we've actually had a lot of people that have sold because the market's really high the inventory is really low. The demand is really high and then they have gone in and they've rented they've gone to a lake house they've gone to a mountain house they're. Looking for a lifestyle you know and they're holding out until they either get a job or the market goes down and they can buy it where everything's on sale. I pre.

I wanted to hear that. I had a feeling that was more of the case. You know versus tim's situation in orange county the treasurer we're talking about financial uncertainty to unlock the market. What are you seeing in colorado springs as it relates to military or non-military, yes, um.

So what we're seeing as far as non-military is that a lot of people are relocating here from across the country. They want the clean air, they want a different lifestyle. Um interest rates are still low, so that's really helping to drive people here um and they want to be close to grandkids um. They want to retire here.

They were stationed here before so that's driving our market here regarding non-military and then regarding military um. You know we have. Everybody has positive equity right now, we're not seeing short sales foreclosures, anything like that um and so that's been really healthy for our market and while we know that they're going to get orders, they may not have them yet so we're in a holding pattern of kind Of watching the market until they receive those orders - and we have everything in place, so they can go because once they get the orders, they're typically going pretty quickly um. But we have a really strong um, also non-profit base here and they've been doing the same thing.

They've been either holding tight because they have positive equity and for our clients we always try to put them in at a price point where they're, not house poor, that's always been our strategy. So if you qualify for let's say 500, we're gon na start at 400 to see what we can do with that and leverage that money. So that's been a little bit good for you know for us, and i know everybody on the panel does the same thing. Probably different in a second home community um, but for us um we have had a couple of those conversations, but the stimulus helped people to kind of hunker down and and stay where they were at for us here, love it so david.

So much of the the phrases, uncertainty and, probably more so with with glenda, you know, tim is expressing the same thing in a different way, but really with treasure when you're talking about military right am i going to germany? Am i not going to germany if i'm going to germany? Can my family come with me? What's that going to look like which you know which going back to the zilla report, 34 of the people said, life is just too uncertain right now right and what we all want to do is we need to be the ones that clarify not terrify. Yes, we want to unlock the inventory. My friends listen to me. We need to be the clarifiers tim.

I see you pointing there thought well one thing about uncertainty, because financial uncertainty isn't the top of my, but the things that are uncertain for us is market uncertainty and what's going to have with policy because we are a heavily taxed state and we, if taxes, change And if uh, you know if it, for especially like capital gains tax, that is a dramatic difference for us. Yes, so being educated and informed on all of the different policy and everything that we can with the market, because the market, as everybody's saying, is its peak. We're having a lot of those conversations glenda's having which is my biggest challenge to unlock sellers. They don't know where to go so yeah.

I could probably get 15 over market, but where do i go so having conversations with them about? What does this look like and really asking questions like okay, everybody's looking at the market today as it sits, but the markets can shift quickly and if they shift quickly, people are going to be frantic to do something so trying to get in front of those markets. With those conversations is key and you're right, it's just not about financial uncertainty, it's about all of the other certainties which provides conversations, and the key is asking the right questions and staying engaged like really staying engaged with them as their friend really getting in there like What if this happens, what if this doesn't happen, and it really, if you take the time and care and you're serving you - will unlock a lot more opportunities, is what we're seeing 100 so treasure go ahead. I i just have one thing to add to that: absolutely that is number one is like getting in there more than ever to really understand the dynamics and for us right when covet hit. We had a lot of people going to italy and germany and we didn't know their timeline, but they were definitely going and we had just got under contract when we locked down so navigating that with them um.

They all did it successfully, because we we were in the conversation, we were having the conversations with the other realtors and they were having it with their buyers saying this is where we're at in regards to when they can move and how that's going to look and And really coming together, as colleagues and partners for the best of buyers and sellers has really been so impressive to see from our real estate community this year of people really coming together. So, while politically people may be torn apart, i feel as real estate professionals. We've really come together for the good of our clients. I agree well said so david.

Let's talk about that because life uncertainty was really the next big one and and everybody's kind of talking about it here, especially tim with the taxes - and you know, could you imagine you know you're being told you're going to germany and you sold your house right right? You know, i i think this yeah you bring that back up. You know that that reason that life is too uncertain right now and and it's very interesting to listen to tim, you know the uncertainty. What that means to you in your market to you, know glenda what that means in atlanta. What that means in colorado springs, you know just across the country.

It means different things to different people. Now i think, there's some interesting things happening right now that i would, i would suggest here that are going to be a across the market in some level relative to pricing relative to interest rates that um. You know there will be a price. I think people will pay to wait for certainty in our business.

You know if you look at interest rates. You'll get things like that. So, let's, let's take a look at a couple of things: a little bit of research around uncertainty right now hold on david. I think yes, everyone watching needs to write that down if you're waiting for certainty, there's going to be a price you're going to pay for that.

You said it differently, but that's what you said and i just absolutely yeah and i and i and i believe that and that's true in life right, not just in in our housing uh or in a decided decision to buy ourselves certainty uh. If we're gon na wait for that is, is gon na be based on uh several different things, but i bring this quote in here: uh from jeff tucker from zillow. He says, as homeowners who feel life is uncertain. Right now may think they can get a strong price.

We just talked about that they delay selling until they have more clarity. The catches waiting to sell may raise the cost of a trade up, and this falls record low mortgage rates, which make a trade-up more affordable on a monthly basis, are not guaranteed to last so we've talked about this we've seen it multiple different places. You know the complacency around great interest rates, what's going to happen in the future and that's what we're starting to see a nod to uh to this, as things become more certain as the economy improves, we'll see a rising interest rate environment. I don't know when that's going to happen, but we certainly can say that's.

What's uh, you know uh, the future will bring tom. You had ivy zellman on podcast a couple weeks ago and certainly what she's saying we we believe and followed a lot of her advice over the years and saying hey as we look into next year, we're gon na start to see a more rising interest rate environment. I'm going to talk about that in just a second, what the nba is saying, but if we look at mortgage rates right now, uh, you know most recently freddie mac. 2.8 percent is the average on a 30-year fix still very, very good.

They go on to say her. Mortgage rates remain relative, remain very low, providing homeowners who have not already taken advantage of this environment ample opportunity to do so. Mortgage rates today are, on average, a full percentage point lower than rates over the last five years. This means that most low and moderate income borrowers who purchased during the last few years stand to benefit by exploring refinancing to lower their monthly payment buying a new home, whatever the case may be to take advantage of these great interest rates.

Now the question is: what's you know, as we turn the corner into 2021? What is that going to look like not only from an interest rate standpoint, but also for prices? Um? You know, we've updated uh this slide and talked about it. Many times on, projections relative to home price appreciation, zillow's come out and saying seven percent appreciation going forward, and you see those in the middle four or five percent uh appreciation. I think it's safe to say based on experts as we go into next year, based on where we've been in supply and the demand we've seen uh driven across the country by low interest rates that homes are going to appreciate very quickly. You know we talked about on the front end of this.

Some of the affordability uh, you know being challenged by that and i think we're gon na we're gon na see that mba has also come out with their most recent uh a forecast for mortgage rates, and you see this year, we're you know below three percent. But if we look at 2020 at three percent and this gradual increase going forward uh again in three years, if we're at 3.9 percent, i don't think anybody's going to go in our business and say that's a crazy uh rate. That's a great rate, but when you're at 2.8 percent it makes four and a half percent look high uh for the for the average buyer in today's market, and so i think helping people see that where we are at today is not where we will be 12 Months from now relative to uh appreciation relative to interest rates according to what experts are forecasting a quick our panel here so glenda, but i'm just uncertain about life. I don't know: what's gon na happen, i don't know if i'm gon na be able to get another job, i'm sitting on three or four hundred thousand dollars in equity.

What we're trying to figure out here right! So here's the question for the panel. How are we going to get the word out to the sellers that are uncertain, that think they can't sell that that aren't even reaching out they're in the research phase they want to make a move. How do we get to them from a marketing standpoint? That's what i want to know from the three of you so tom we did. We did a postcard.

That said, be the clarity in the midst of chaos. So for us that was really big, because people wanted us to be, they want they're. Looking for that clarity, and for me, what i'm telling people is the only true clarity is the here and now, because none of us have a crystal ball period. I mean think about it.

When you - and i were together in january february - did did you? Did you see this coming, i mean we had no idea. No, we weren't talking about this. You know, i think the great thing for agents and the opportunity for agents is the click it and hit it. Real estate agent is irrelevant because, being tom, you, okay, i need a pen.

I want to write that down. I said i said the click it and hit it real estate agent is irrelevant because being a master of the knowledge of your marketplace is really what your client is looking for. Clicking an online value is irrelevant because you've got to be nimble as a as a real estate. Professional you've got to be nimble.

You've got to have an intimate knowledge of your marketplace. I mean you, you can't click on some button and expect somebody in a cube in iowa to understand the market in atlanta georgia period and, and i think that, if you as an agent, if you explore that with your clients with your sellers, you're automatically gaining credibility. You're, nothing accelerates credibility faster than proof and being able to show that you're. The pilot that goes to columbus five times a day back and forth beats the hell out of the pilot that goes to paris once a month, and i think that the proficiency and the exercise and the experience is now more valuable than ever and understanding the data And being able to apply it to that specific homeowner, that is where you need to be.

That is where you need to be, and and loving on people building the relationship moving from being a service provider to being in relationship with the client they want that they want to know you're in it with them, and for me, that's really where all of 2020 Has brought me is to be in it with the client. Can i answer the question? You do a lot of marketing a lot of films right. You create a lot of content. You do a lot of direct mail there's more homes along the coast that haven't called you than have called you to say: hey tim, we're thinking about selling, and i know you go on a lot of what we would call research phase sellers we're thinking about it.

Tim, you know, but there's way more, that aren't calling you, how do we get their attention because we're trying to untap the inventory? So it's a great question: it's a it's a great question because we're we usually run at about 100 listings we're at 30 right now and it's not for a lack of marketing working, but i think the opportunities that we're seeing for me and making the assumption of What glenda just said, like 2021, is the year of the expert and not just the expert in real estate, the expert on real estate therapy, the people that can sit down with people and really empathize, listen and help them achieve their objectives and requirements. But for us what our plan is tv radio youtube, huge campaigns where we're finding ratings and the amount of time people are spending online is up dramatically starting in march till now, and it's gone back and forth with this polarizing election. So it's like all of our campaigns coming into next year, will be huge tv, huge radio, huge youtube vimeo, you know social media uh will really be the key for us and then the other piece to it is expired. Listings expired listings will start happening at an all new level, because you have that category of seller that always comes out at the peak and wants 20.

So your scripting and your ability to sell them on reality is going to be really the key yeah. I agree. Treasury, how do we, how do we unlock all those like all those people in colorado springs that are that want to sell, but they're sitting there having conversations with themselves and not with you? Why do we tap into that? I think it's really - and this is something that we've been talking about with our coach - is really being hyper - local, really digging in and really doing, amazing things for our community and really coming from a place of love with our community. The business is going to follow when people know that you're there for the right reasons and not letting them into the inside of where you're at.

But you know for me being a homeschool working. Mom has really you know. I've been able to kind of share a different spin on hey. This is how we're making it work for us, we're not doomsdaying it we're saying hey.

This is how we're making it work for us and really coming from a place of inspiring, like i showed this thing the other day that blew up on social on here's, how we created a closet into our home office and here's how we did it and here's The budget around it and here's how we made it work for us and that just really took off really crazy, so i think really loving on our team. Loving on you know the more we love on the people around us, the more that radiates outward and really being hyper local. So for us this year we have donated over 175 000 back into our community with our hometown heroes program, which is giving money back to our first responders, our military, our teachers. All of that and we're just starting to leverage it, because that wasn't the initial point.

But we want to get the word out and so becoming that hyper local agent has been crucial for us. Now, i'm going to ask the three of you: are you making phone calls? Are you texting people? Are you doing any of the yeah, because i mean tim's talking television and radio and glenda, you know direct mail postcards and we're giving back, and - and you know you know where my heart is on - all of that - what about the person listening right now that doesn't Have the budget that doesn't have the sophistication or, let's just call it business, swagger that the three of you have do? Do you ever make phone calls so tom? You know i am a big fan of facetime. I love facetime like nobody's business, i mean and that's the thing is like they again. You want to be in it with them.

You want them to see you and so for us we're facetiming everybody. I you know all of my clients. I facetime them every single month to check in but we're stalking. You know, i'm a i'm a facebook, social media stalker so anytime that i have to operate up the opportunity to celebrate, congratulate or console um facetime always reaching out to them.

Because for me it's i want it to be really really personal, yes and that's it that that's the difference like treasure's right. You want to be hyper local. You want to know what's going on, but you want to be part of the family. You want them coming to you and you want them to feel like you're in it with them.

So pick up the face time. It's so easy and they're like oh, my god, glenda's facetiming me and i'm like hey. I just facetimed. You didn't answer.

I'm answering my text sending them a video text. It's great. I love it. So the answer is yes.

Yes, all the time. It's time, video text, you know we know that 90 of consumers would rather be text than actually called but facetime, and we know the impact of video tim. Are you making phone calls at this point in your career? Absolutely it's funny because if i had, if i didn't have a face for radio and i looked like glenda treasurer i'd be doing a lot more face time, but yeah all calls for me. It's like a staple.

It's an assumption, and one of the things going back to these big campaigns. The key is sharing content like this, so that people will actually call to get your expertise and it's not just a call about selling or buying it's a call about, connecting and being the expert and giving them really really good advice on what they're doing, but calls Have never been more important and what i've found when inventories start to really dry up the things that i get more relentless about doing. Are my three questions. Number one: have you had any thoughts of selling right when they get through that and that's everybody? I don't care if it's my mechanic to a guy that just sold the company if they answer that question, if they trust you and i loved how glenda said: accelerate credibility.

There's some just nuggets on this call right. But if you have credibility, you can unlock opportunities with people, they know. The next question is: do you know anybody? That's had thoughts of selling and if you answer and listen, people will unlock p and i always tell people you don't have to connect me to this person we're just looking for opportunities. If you give me an address and then we'll go after on a very like general campaign, and then the third is, do you know anybody, that's tried to sell and wasn't successful, which everybody knows those people.

So i'm using my network and asking those questions, and i it really experts, know how to listen and ask questions. It's the the key for 2021 is unlocking the questions that will give us opportunities, love it treasure. You got any thoughts on that. I mean.

Obviously, yes, we're making calls every day um we wouldn't be at 450 homes without doing the basics, which is making our phone calls and for us, it's really been this year more than ever for in our community, not about selling about coming alongside people and where they're At and really i think in my personal life, as well figuring out like the little details, mean more than ever like when someone reaches out and just sends you a text like hey, i'm thinking about you, it means more than it ever has when you go to A hotel - and they have little touches - it - means more than ever so, really digging in and figuring out how to have that experience for our clients and then at the end of the transaction. We started doing this on our team. We want to hear them say at least one time thank you for making that so easy, and we actually are clicking that and knowing that that is when we know we did right by them, because selling and buying houses is one of the most. You know stressful things.

People can do next to death divorce. All of that, so we've really leveraged that experience to say how can we make this as easy on them as possible? What we say to them is we're going to keep you informed, we're taking all of this off of your plate, you're informed and, as you've said many times, tom nose in hands off, and so that's what we kind of tell our clients is. We want you to be informed, but we're going to take care of all this for you and at the end of it or somewhere in the middle, when they say thank you for making this so easy. We know we're on the right track and so we're just duplicating that and scaling that and personalizing it for them along their personal journey.

So david, let's showing the mark fleming quote and then being mindful of time, we'll touch on the very last one, the 25 percent. But you know for my friends out there that are watching you know, because i don't have facebook up because we're you know tristan's over here on one laptop, i'm up not inside the studio. You know hardened up. I would say tag tag these three, and this is probably one of those that you're going to want to share, maybe send it to your office manager tagging them, because this would be a great sales meeting for everybody to tap into.

You got arguably three of the greatest real estate professionals, professionals in the country right now, giving you some deep insights on how they're operating their business - and i guarantee some of you - are having a paradigm shift hearing it from these three so so david. Let's go to that, mark fleming quote and let's drive it home. I think this quote here does drive at home and in the thought of even making a phone call and saying hey, there's you know, a lot of people are uncertain right now, um and - and you know using some of this information, this quote comes uh. From mark fleming, from first america, he says the good news is that affordability remains significantly higher than one year ago, mostly due to falling rates, and one month does not make a trend.

But this month's decline in affordability signals that the current dynamics producing faster house price appreciation may begin to erode the affordability gains of recent years. So, as there is uncertainty, there will be a cost to it, and i think i think it was very well said in several different ways of just listening and understanding and also providing uh the other side to to the truth of this. That, as we look into the future, some of those gains in affordability, uh may erode over time. Uh relative to rising interest rates, rising prices on you know i did a calculation and on the slides there, the uh a median priced home in this country.

You know if you take ivy zellman's forecast for appreciation. Take mba's forecast for interest rates, increases the payment by about 150 a month. Now there you know, there's going to be more on the on the higher side of that. I think it's about a 300 000 house uh for that, but but you know the impact of that uncertainty.

Uh is real and uh, and i think you know being able to have a conversation around that and and and people realizing it and understanding it whether they make a decision or not uh, it puts them in a better situation, to uh to be confident about. What's going on in the market agreed, i mean this whole show is really about my friends and the timing is perfect thinking about how we started this today. How do we deliver more certainty in the marketplace? How do we create more certainty for ourselves, so we can move people forward, help those people that need our help so so david. Why don't we show them a lot? We really have two slides and i want to be mindful of time that 25 is about covid and you know yeah.

You know this last one one in four uh in the survey said i have health concerns relative to you know, what's happening right now. I think it's very real and i think it underscores you know our need to effectively communicate hey. This is what we're doing to sell homes, to transact, to do everything that we do in a safe way, uh, because there's still a number of people out there. That say, you know what that's a big concern for me and uh.

You know, and i i you know not done something because of that concern yep. So for our panel um, what have you done from a marketing standpoint? You know i hear a lot of agents complaining about. I've got to build these new forms and i'm like don't complain about filling out forms right, we're talking about people's lives and we're talking about you have the ability to go transact, there's a lot of people that can't work and you're complaining about another form. You have to fill out like perspective.

I know the three of you right. What have you done? You know if someone is concerned, how have you or have you marketed your safety first home selling strategies, or you know, to help them understand that you can manage this successfully and safely through code. So we have adopted a safety protocol, but i think that it's especially in my market, it's extremely critical to understand where they are on this on the fear scale, because i mean here in atlanta, i've got people who just don't even think this exists, and then i've Got people like my husband who are on the fear side of the pandemic, who aren't even going out, so i think that it's complete, i think really. The key is to understand.

Where is your audience? Where is the person that you're speaking to on the scale so that you can speak to it intelligently, because if you're taught for me, if i'm talking to you, know bob over here, and he has no fear whatsoever, he doesn't even think this really exists. If i'm talking about all of my safety protocol, he's automatically tuned me out, so you really need to understand where the other person is and how you can meet them, where they are not bring them to you meet them where they are. That is critical. Well said treasure from a marketing standpoint or tim from a marketing standpoint, but we're again everybody out there.

What we're trying to do is tap into the people that have uncertainty whatever that fear is about putting their home on the market. I want them to call you, because i know everyone watching. I know you're going to do the right thing. How do we tap into them so treasurer?.