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Could this be the final rate hike from the Federal Reserve in this cycle? That is. Could the very next thing the FED does after today's 50 basis point hike b a rate cut rather than a 25 basis Point hike in this video I'm going to share my opinion and some facts surrounding this with historical data, but we're going to start by talking retail flows. What is retail doing I Personally like looking at retail flows because oftentimes you get retail that has a very contrarian attitude which I think is phenomenal I Think When prices go down, buying the dip is often useful unless of course you're just on a year-long downtrend or which we kind of have been on or on like a 2001 three-year downtrend. It's not great then buying the dip.

it's kind of painful, but retail tends to have that contrarian attitude. But interestingly, as prices go down, retail does seem to buy less stock overall, and that's exactly what we're seeing right now. I'll tell you which names are being bought more by retail right now. but at the very moment, according to a Vanda Track report released just minutes ago, we are sitting at a 20 lower than normal average of daily purchases by retail.

We have an average year-to-date amount of purchases on the daily basis by retail investors of 1.2 billion dollars. Remember retail investors any individual investor that's to be not necessarily contrasted with people on Wall Street because if they individually trade their retail as well, let's be contrasted with hedge funds Pension funds, institutions, or entities, right? Anyway, Uh, We've recently been sitting at about a one billion dollar average, so about 20 percent less than average and Retail only bought 681 million of stock yesterday. Now I say only obviously I mean it's still a lot. it's still buying according to Vanda track.

JPMorgan has been suggesting There have been some days where we might have actually been seeing retail outflows, but usually the bottom of the market is associated with this huge retail capitulation where retail just throws in the towel, their risk tolerance is low, and they're like we're done. we're done. One of the things that is interesting about this as well is that Vanda Track is reporting that retail tends to buy Market open and close and then sell in between. Kind of interesting.

We'll look at some of the positions that retail is buying as well so we can get a little bit of an idea of what they're doing. and then we'll talk about this idea about. Is this potentially the last fed hike that I think is quite fascinating to think about? Uh, all right. so let's see what we've got here for retail buying the biggest buy.

The dip for retail right now is none other than Tesla This chart here shows you a re: uh, the price declines. On the left side, you can see price declines uh, and the lower they are here, the more the prices have declined. You can see Tesla's kind of been declining separate from the rest of the market. A lot of this likely related uh, likely in my opinion, unrelated to potentially slowing demand in China or potentially slowing demand in the United States as people prefer to wait for the tax credit in 2023, which would be a tax credit they probably wouldn't actually get until 2024 versus the 3750 that they can get immediately if they bought in December But either way, uh yeah.

Tesla's have had a little bit of a of a cycle of uh, you know, some potential demand concerns in coordination with a lot of concerns about potential uh Elon Musk Selling? Uh, and uh, retail's buying it up I Hate to say it. but I mean yesterday during a live stream we conducted on Twitter and Elon Musk no longer paying rent at Twitter offices? Uh, apparently and allegedly not having done so for about three weeks, you actually see the largest amount of selling or well, more. I should say largest amount of volume at Tesla stock that you have seen in over a year. That's pretty phenomenal.

You can see the volume chart right here is higher than at any point until we go back to November and October of 2021. So we're over a year we've hit the highest volume, leading some folks to say that Elon did a big old dumpy doodle yesterday. Uh, but hey, you know what retail's looking at it as a buying opportunity I Don't blame that I actually think there is a big buying opportunity in Tesla Yeah. I Actually think one of the the neat things that you could do right now is potentially tax loss Harvest move over into an actively managed ETF that has a large position in Tesla and then that way in the future if you rebalance boom.

Well, I should say if the fund rebalances boom, you're potentially not exposed to capital gains. Obviously, always talk to your CPA about that. But ETFs do have that sort of benefit where they can rebalance and not pass along large capital gains. I Know, yeah, hear.

sometimes people in the comments are like oh my gosh, but there's like a point, you know, whatever, whatever fee and it's like Dude any ETF charges way less fees than what you'll pay the ah, the ah and the S when you rebalance and take a little bit of gains like there, you're paying fees of you know, 15 to 35 or 50 depending on what state you're in short term long term. Anyway, Okay, before we get to the potential last rate for the FED I want to take a look at uh, this year as well as at retail, buys more of Tesla Rivian and Lucid combined performance is actually going down. This chart here suggests that even though retail is buying more and the average price is going down, there must be someone selling for the price to be going down and that is very likely institutional sellers institutions dumping these stocks. It doesn't surprise me in my Tesla video.

I Talk about how Tesla is really an Untouchable for institutions right now, because how do you defend owning Tesla not only when it's on this downtrend, but also when you have the politics associated with it and institutions are more exposed to political considerations for their investing purposes. I Believe I Think that actually creates a fundamental opportunity for Tesla Rivian and Lucid I would be much more concerned about. In fact, if you search on my channel, meet Kevin Rivian Lucid Bankruptcy. You'll learn a whole lot about these particular companies.

and I think it's there. These are, um, those are videos that are worth paying attention to. Uh, and look it it, it is worth also saying, though, it doesn't take a genius to draw some trend lines for Tesla and uh, tell you, it looks bad, it's really interesting. I Actually Drew this trend line.

uh, probably a week ago I think I drew this around here. more like the last week of November when we were over here and I drew this trend line just to see where we might end up going and we are just sitting on top of it. Unfortunately, if you just continue to extend this, if we stay within this channel, uh, we're in a big downtrend and it's going to take quite a bit to get a nice little breakout and then this is just that's just simple Ta right there. I Mean that that's this, is like kindergarten level ta.

Uh, but anyway. okay, so uh. retail. What else is retail buying? And then let's talk about could this be the last potential fed High Like So uh, what else is retail buying? Well, primarily it's Tesla followed by Apple Amazon video AMD I Like all of these personally, with the exception of Amazon I think Amazon's going to be in a race to the Fulfillment bottom and you've got an AWS slowdown not a big fan of Netflix Not sure how that ad model is going to go I'd rather invest in the advertising company like a trade desk that does a direct uh connect the TV advertising though they handle that for Disney and Hulu uh, not for Netflix Microsoft actually handles the advertising for Netflix So in that case, if I wanted exposure to Netflix I'd rather be in Microsoft personally I am a licensed financial advisor, but obviously this is not Financial advice for you because I don't know what your specific circumstances are.

uh and and then of course the rest here you can kind of just look on screen and see what that retail buying is looking like. All right. So now let's go ahead and touch on this idea that maybe this it's time for us to be looking at the last Federal Reserve rate hike ever and uh, and a massive potential U-turn So this is an interesting one. The last, uh on average I say if you go back looking at historical data, the last Federal Reserve hike happens on average 22 weeks after Peak CPI So in other words, you hit Peak CPI on average.

The last fed hike is 22 weeks later. Well, Peak CPI was 22 and a half weeks ago and we're gonna have a 50 basis point hike today. So if today was the last fed hike for this hiking cycle, it would be in line with historic dorms and the first cut tends to happen on average 16 weeks thereafter, which would be about April which I'm kind of projecting the first cut to be around May or June so that roughly aligns. but I Have to say I'm not the biggest believer that even though statistically the last rate hike is 22 weeks on average after Peak CPI I'm not that optimistic that the Fed's going to stop here now.

it's possible and this is where things get interesting. See between now and February 1st you get one more CPI raid hike uh or or I should say not a CPA rating. What is that? Even you get one more CPI report which could potentially lead to rate hikes right? If that report comes in soft I Think the Fed's gonna go for 25 basis point hike and we're going to hear about that today. Is it possible the FED with just one more good CPI report could go to zero.

Historically, the answer. The answer here is yes. realistically. I've let's just say I wouldn't bet on it, but it is interesting and it's something I'm going to pay attention to for when we look for Clues With what Jay Powell is going to be talking to us about today, remember: Jay Powell will be speaking at Uh 11 30 Pacific time We'll have the summary of economic projections and the rate hike decision at 11 A.M I will be live for that I Can't wait to see you there! Oh boy, Buckle up folks! It's gonna be a fun day and uh hey, you know what some folks are starting to say.

It could be time to move from short everything to Long everything. Maybe that uh could align with uh, you know Peak fed hawkishness. It'll be interesting. Let me know what you think in the comments down below.

Thanks so much! Goodbye.