Welcome back to the channel everyone today, i want to talk about how there's potentially 1.364 billion amc shares in issue, including those synthetics, and this has been calculated by a phd data analyst so stay tuned and let's make some money. But before i dive into the video, i just want to give a massive shout out to the 4 300 of you that have currently dinged that notification bell, because you guys are always the first to watch a new video as soon as it's released. So guys be sure to drop a like down below subscribe to the channel and ding that notification bell, if you haven't already so that you don't miss another video. Just like this one, and just a quick one before i dive in with the key information, if you haven't already signed up with moomoo, to get your free share with up to 350 and your guaranteed share worth up to around 50 be sure to check out the Link down in the description below and now i want to dive straight in with the key information.

So this weekend i went through all of the amc 13f's, the no port, nps etfs and 13g filings to get some insight into synthetic shares result there's at least 1.364 billion shares out there for amc. Here's the excel file. Now i've downloaded that spreadsheet and the first tab takes you to the 13fs and the nps, as you can see, she's filtered all of these, from largest to smallest and then at the very bottom she's totaled them all up and there's around 200 million shares held by 13F participants on the second tab, she's got the 13g filings, which mostly show the holdings from blackrock and vanguard or a portion of their holdings and also from mudric as well. Just a quick one to clarify these 44 million shares held by harbor investments are actually really owned by vanguard group, but i think harbor investments is just their holding name.

For example, same with these 30 million shares held by prudential financial is actually held by blackrock, but again i think it's just a holding name. Therefore, blackrock and vanguard have both 13 f holdings here and also 13 g holdings here. The reason why the 13 g's are separated from 13 f's is because 13 g's have different filing requirements under the sec rules. You then also have the top etf holdings, which show around 25 million shares of amc held by etfs.

Now, as i spoke about yesterday, msci are going to be increasing their holdings of amc and i think also the russell 2000 is also rumored to be increasing their share positions. Now. All of this data can also be verified by fintel, because here's the 13g holdings on fintel and here's the 13 f holdings on fintel as well. This number is less than the 1 to 2.5 billion synthetic shares.

I calculated previously based on a save vote using statistical software with a 99 confidence interval, perhaps because these filings are quarterly and delayed. Here's the link to that post. Now i actually discussed this post previously. Obviously, it was based on the say, technologies vote count.

I guess this isn't some form and estimation, but we did have good accuracy with over 64 000 shareholders taking part counting for around 60 million shares. Current shares per 13 fs and no poor np filings is 200 million. Etfs is 25 million institutional owners. 13G filings is 46 million, so total non retail shares is 272 million 945 and 861 shares.

But we also know that adam aaron has twice now said that retail owns at least 80 of the flow once back in june, and also recently in august when he was discussing with trade trades. He said that retail holds over 80 of the flow. Therefore, if 20 is 273 million shares, therefore there's at least 1.364 billion shares of amc out there at the moment now we can be very confident of this amount of synthetic shares, because these 273 million shares have been independently, verified and filed with the sec and adam Aaron has recently confirmed that we still own over 80 of the flow, considering we now own over 80 of the flow. Maybe this is 10 is 273 million shares and therefore the total amount of shares is potentially around 2.7 billion shares.

It depends on how much over 80, we hold, there's, possibly a lot more shares out there, because not all of these are reflected here. I also tried to cross check to make sure there's no double counting, so i deleted many rows of data just to be conservative. This data may be slightly inaccurate, but you get the big picture and i also don't think it will be that inaccurate, because fintel shows 158 million shares held on the 13 f's, excluding the 13 gs and these, and also excluding the nps. This is brilliant that we can be so so confident on the sheer number of synthetic shares out there, and it's also great for the amc, short squeeze play or short squeeze thesis.

And this is why amc could squeeze into the thousands or tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands of dollars per share, because not only is there maybe a 100 million short shares that need to be covered, but there's potentially 1.3 1.5, maybe even over 2 billion Shortage shares that need to be covered. I also wanted to show you a very apish and a very bullish screenshot of the cycle theory. This is the amc cycle, theory on a logarithmic scale, showing the january run-up and the june run-up and the third run up or the third cycle that we're just about to enter into and or are just entering just here. I thought i'd blow up on the big screen and we are sticking to this cycle theory.

Almost exactly back here in may june, we had a small run-up and small pullback before the larger run-up and we've had that same small run-up and pull back now we're getting ready. I think this week or next week ready for the main run now. The third cycle will take us to around 170 to 250, and that will just be based on the cycle. Theory alone, not including any shorts, covering a single share.

Therefore, considering amc is on track to hit potentially between 175 and 250 this week or next before any shorts cover. This is a catalyst that could absolutely trigger the short squeeze if hedge funds are getting liquidated on the way up to 175 to 250 that'll push the amc price even higher significantly. Now, it's obviously not a guarantee that this will cause the short squeeze, because those short hedge funds could continue averaging up their short positions, and they may potentially escape liquidation on this third cycle. However, to do that, those short hedge funds would need to plow billions and billions, if not trillions, of dollars, on top of their already over leveraged amc position to avoid liquidation as they'd have to average up their short position, meaning they'd have to continue adding to their Short position even more - this is also another very bullish photo showing astros fractal theory.

As you can see here back in january, we had fractal one and fractal two in june fractal, one and fractal. Two and now here in august, we've just completed fractal one and fractal. Two and we're ready for the run up. I also wanted to do a quick recap on the amc macd.

As you can see, this is also very, very healthy for the macd. The macd is actually starting to cool off, while we've had this pullback and small run up. Therefore, putting amc and the macd in a great position for another push upwards if we zoom out as well we're currently only just about breaking even on the average macd line. Nowhere near that overbought territory that we saw back in june, therefore, amc is primed for another run on the macd as well in terms of the reverse.

Repos we've had the 13th date in a row of over 1 trillion dollars in that reverse repo facility. Again, getting quite close to that all-time high of 1.147 trillion dollars in terms of that daily treasury update the us treasury is still hemorrhaging cash with another 25 billion and another 18 billion cash hemorrhaged now down to around 239 billion dollars. At this rate, the us treasury has probably only got around 10 days, maybe even less. Maybe seven days left before the us treasury is completely out of cash.

Guys be sure to. Let me know down in the comments below what you think about there. Being 1.364 billion amc shares in issue and how we can actually be very, very confident that that's an accurate figure also guys, if you haven't already be sure, to check out the links down in the description below to the patreon. So you can become part of the team and also to check out my new line of amc related merch and, as always, guys, if you've enjoyed this video, be sure to check out some of my others.

Alternatively, subscribe to the channel and ding that notification bell, because that way, you'll be alerted when i upload a new video cheers.