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Hey hey: what's up my friend, so welcome back right to this month's price action analysis. This is for the month of september right. So what you'll be experiencing right is pretty much me sharing my thought process of the markets. I'll share with you.
You know trading opportunities. I'm looking at why i'm looking to enter a trade where's, the entry point, exits, stop-loss, etc, so just to to mention right, whatever i'm about to share right, please, you know, use your own discretion, your own, due diligence, whether you make money or lose money. It's all on you, your own responsibility, your accountability sounds good. Then, let's get started so.
The first thing i want to share with you right is aussie yen, so this market, i am bullish on this market. So if you just zoom out a little bit, you can see that aussie and recently right, we broke above this resistance area around the uh wow. Look at that straight line: okay, very straight line. So anyway, we recently broke above around the 76 40, 76 50 level.
So again, i'm bullish on this and i'm looking for potential buying opportunities and if you just pull out the 20ma right, you'll notice that this market is pretty much in a strong trend right consistently above the 20ma 20ma here here and here. So i'm looking right for a potential re-test of this, a previous resistance that could become support right and it has also the confluence right of this 20 period moving average. So in terms of a the set up the entry, it's pretty straightforward, all right! You can go down to a lower time frame like the eight hour time frame and look for bullish price rejection at this area right previous resistance resistance resistance which could become support. So it's around the 77 price point so looking for the price to hit down lower lower lower lower, then it rejects close bullish, lead back above this previous uh resistance that that could become support.
Then i'll look to buy on the next candle open, stop loss right! Will be 180 below this low somewhere about here? Okay, potential targets could be just before this swing high here right, so you can capture a swing, but if you want something more right to lead to, let's say you know, capture the trend. Since this market is still in an uptrend, you can trail your stop-loss right progressively as the market moves in your favor. You can use you know, moving average uh, the chandelier crosstalk and you know stuff like that. Okay, so first one is aussie yen bullish on this.
Next market that i'm bullish on is nasdaq, so nasdaq is that i mean you look at this chart right. It's at all-time highs! Okay, so you just zoom out zoom in zoom out zoom in there's, nothing bearish on this chart. The only thing that's bearish are those people who are permanently bearish in the markets right they are, they think the whole world is going to crash and burn, and you know always you know bearish, but here's the thing right. You can be bearish only one right, but if you're a trader and you're bearish and you're putting money on the line, then it's going to really hurt a lot. Okay, so so trade, what you see not what do you think or what do you feel so clearly right? I am bullish. I am with the flow with the price with the trend. So where do we look for buying opportunities? That's the question right. So we know we are bullish.
The next question is: where do we look for buying opportunities? So if you just pull over the 20ma you'll notice that this market is also in a strong trend since uh since april right notice, it has been you know above the 20ma consistently. Yes, you have. You know some false breakdown here and here and here but generally it has, you know, remain above the 20ma and you can see that it has tested it a number of times right once twice twice: four: five: six, maybe even seven eight, so yeah consistently above the 20Ma, so what i am looking right is again right for buying opportunities or as the price approach, this 20 period moving average. So here's the thing right, i am not looking to you - know, buy the moment you just retest the 20 ma right because never know right.
This could be the final breakdown and the price rate is down lower. So i'll look for clues from the market right that signals to me that you know it's. It wants to continue to hit higher. So one way to go about it: it's gainer! You can use the eight hour time frame if you to time your entry, okay and if you just overlay with the 50ma, you realize that, on the eight hour time frame, okay, the 50ma serves as an area of value.
Over here i tested a number of times as well, so what you can look for is buying opportunities right around this area, where the price could re-test this 50ma over here. So you could pull back. Pull back. Pull back then gets rejected close strongly back above the 50ma.
Go long on the next candle open, stop loss again 180 below this lows. Possible target could be at this swing high over here as the price re-test. This swing high, okay, so that's kind of the game plan to uh to trade nasdaq. So you can see that this is not the only uh bullish stock market out there.
If you look at the smp, if you look at you know, i think the the russell 2000 right generally most of them are in a uptrend, so bullish still right on the stock markets. Moving on right, let's move back to you know fx right a little bit of a exotic currency pair dollar against the turkish lira. So if you just look at this right, this is the daily time frame just zoom out a little bit. You can see that this market also right trading near the highs right, just uh under seven dollar, forty cents right now, okay, so you can see it broke above this key area of resistance right and it's consolidating right now, that's great! So what i'm looking for is again right for the market, to signal to me right that it's getting ready to make the next move higher. So again, i would like to use the 20ma as a guide. So, as you can see right now, the market seems to be forming like a potential flag pattern. A booth like pattern, a consolidation right - i'm not too concerned with the exact term right, but what i want to see is for the 20ma to catch up with the price. This means right as of right now.
The 20ma has not touched this uh this. This uh price over here here almost it's - almost touched it, but didn't so. I want the 20mm to go up higher. So eventually the price gets to touch the 20ma.
So when that happens right, that's it's a sign to me right that this market has stored enough potential energy and it's really getting ready to make the next, hopefully the next breakout higher. So what i will do is that if the 20ma has caught up with the price, then what i'll do is simply place a buy, stop order above this highs. Look to go long. Stop loss right will be 180 below this swing low over here so somewhere about here.
All right, so that's my plan to trade dollar against the turkish lira, bullish on it as well. So it seems like we have a number of bullish, setups right this this coming month. So what else can i share another bullish setup right go so for gold right again, if you look at this right, whether it's the daily, whether it's the weekly bullish on this market as well so daily timeframe, look at gold uh. I think it has to be consistently above the 50ma right.
I mean we have a little bit of chop here and there you know here here, but s of a april again right pretty much consistently above the 50ma. So again, i'm looking uh, i'm bullish on gold. Looking for buying opportunities and again where i see uh, where i'm looking to bias at this area of value over here around this swing low. So again, if you go down to a lower time frame like the eight hour time frame, you would see that the area of value is more pronounced.
Okay, so it's this area over here this area of support, okay, so price, would possibly come down swing now. Lower. Do a false break of this lows then reverse up higher close back above support looking to buy on the next candle open, stop loss, one atr below this low somewhere here and first possible target just before this swing high over. Here again, you can look to take half your position at that swing.
High. Then again, you have the remaining half. You can use it to trail. Your stop loss, maybe using the moving average using a chandelier crosstalk.
Those are very useful techniques to trail your stop-loss okay and that's for go bullish on this as well, and one last thing right just to do a quick trade recap with you, so aussie dollar. This is a pair that uh i'm long as well bullish and again the top process is kind of similar to the aussie en1 that i said earlier. You can see that again this market pretty much broke above resistance. Then we had this consolidation over here. So i want to share with you the concept that i just mentioned earlier right when the market do a consolidation uh a potential bull flag pattern, i, like the 20ma to catch up with the price first, to signal to me that it's getting ready to break out It has, you know, stored enough potential energy. So, in this case, if i pull out the 20ma, you can see that it has touched the price at this point over here. Okay, so at this point, okay, let me just go back in time. At this point, you can see that the 20ma has already touched the price great.
So now i am more inclined right to trade. The breakout, so i place a buy, stop order above this highs. Stop loss right 180r below the swing low. I reference this swing low, so it was about here, okay, so if the market breaks out right then i would trail my stop-loss progressively higher.
So the way i trail, my stop-loss is i'm using the chandelier crosstalk, which is this indicator here, and it's showing up showing up as this blue line over here. So what i use there is simply a volatility base indicator. So this from here to this blue line right is 3 atr, so you can pull out your atr indicator. You multiply by 3 right.
It will give you a the number x okay. So the number from here - let's say from the high over here down to here right - this distance is x, which is equivalent to 3 atr. Of course you can adjust the multiple atr. Multiple right over here use three values: four, five: six, it's all depending on you.
Okay, so if you've enjoyed the market analysis right, then i want to welcome you to join pro trader sage right. This is my premium membership right where you will get such market analysis every single week right. I usually publish this type of videos on a weekend to share with you my my insights of the market, the trading opportunities, i'm looking at the trades i took and much more so that's not all right because, as a pro trader sage member, you get many benefits That come along with it. So, for example, you have access to the backtest research lab.
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Hey Rayner,
You don't need to be a Superman, You are a Superstar my man. Blessings.
Just new to this forex trading, and the confidence and clarity you give in these videos is so helpful. Great communication and explanations for all concepts. I'm going to watch a lot of your videos and learn! Thanks
Hi rayner
Just started with your candle stick pattern understanding. I have a situation where a stock is bullish candle but I don’t know what type of strategy it will be called . I did not any suitable chart to depict this behaviour. Open 568, high 587, low 566, close 569. Big wick and small body . Please clarify
Over the last two days the Nasdaq fell like a stone going over a waterfall.
Rayner, the more I watch your analysis, the more I see that you trade on the 1 day chart for the most part. Is that true? I have been trading on the 15 min to 1 hour charts and things seem so fast. Does market seem to put together a trade better when you trade on one day?
Please can you help me with a risk management a spread sheet for a $100 trading account including lot size and trades per day…..please so i can see how ill grow it
Man, I like all of his videos …They're just too clear to understand
Hey hey, I love your videos my friend <3
If the yesterday's closing price touches the 20d high in DC, it's an upward trending stock but it's over selling if you refer to stochastic, would it still be a good time to buy?
When analyzing lower time frame charts do you suggest not taking in consideration of extended hours? I use thinkorswim and can look at lower time frames with extended hours off or on. Thanks for all the amazing videos!
Rayner i have a very important question: i watched you’re video on the BWAB strategy and im wondering which time frame should be used….thank you
Hey hey mafriend, thank you so much. I just recovered my previous months loss because of your videos 🙂
AUS is officially in recession as on Sep2, does that mean a sell?
Hey Hey, Rayner I watch your videos all time and it is soo much good information, but I dont see you ever talk about fundamentals. If you have to choose would you take technical analysis over fundamentals analysis ?
Hey Rayner, thanks a lot for the market breakdown. For usd/try trades, beware of the swap rates for going long on usd. they are sky high most of the times. Best wishes man!
I like what you said about some people being permanently bearish. I actually am one of those people by nature. But I know I'm wrong if that makes sense. Break out trade's scare the hell out of me. I focus more on mean reversion. However, Break out trades are when you can really make crazy money.
Know what's on the other side of intense discomfort Rayner?
Big money.
Yeah Yeah I hit the like button don't worry
Will definitely join your gold membership in sometime rayner bro
I believe that the gold will break down as it is forming decending triangle and also the economy is also on way to rebound.
its my personal opinion i might be wrong and i humbly accept it
hi rayner. your methods very nice .
but i have small doubt – 1mins & 5mins time frame scapling priceaction method deepthly explain indian Commodity market 🤓
Hi rayner, how do you pick short term stocks for trading (swing or trend following)?
Thanks so much for all your work you put into these videos, they have taught me so much! You actually put out so much useful info, you can really tell you actually care about helping people!! Thanks again!!
Are you mostly doing long trading?….not a short trader?
Rayner I am actually selling some tech today but of course bullish. Do you think that this market is a bit overextended currently on the Daily/Weekly?
Thanks a lot.. young man.. i found your channel yesterday.. your method of teaching is so nice and simple.. as I'm almost new in this field, hope I'll learn a lot from u.. sure I'll joine your premium course, but after managing some money..
Thanks a lot bro..
Thanks for the analysis Rayner! Wishing everyone the best of luck in their trading 💰
Nobody cares if you are first we care about Rayner. And his great content