Hey hey, what's up my friend, so welcome back to november's price action analysis. So, as you know, right for the month of november, the highlight is not covet. It's the presidential election and the results are out right. Joe biden has won the election and then right now trump is trying to you know: uh fight his way to to recounting the votes and stuff like that, but i don't believe that will make any impact on the results.

I pretty much think it's finalized and joe biden will be the next u.s president. So let's have a look at the stock markets right and see what that has done. So, as you can see right over here on this chart at the kind of like near the right hand, side this portion was during the election week, so you can see that the market slipped off a little bit just before the election day. Then, when the results come up, we have this nice upward.

Rarely so before we talk about that move right and how you could have you know captured and a swing arm higher. I want you to take a look at the big picture of the s. P. 500..

If you look at the let's say the big picture, like the weekly time frame, this market is still in an uptrend. There's, no reason to be perish on the s p. 500 right. You can see that the overall market right since 2009, right where the market bottom from the 0809 financial crisis, it has been a long-term uptrend.

Yes, this year we had a massive scare right of a collapse of 30 within a short period of time over here. All right and the market pretty much bottom up in much and then rebound higher. So generally, i would say you know: stock markets, i'm still long-term bullish on the u.s stock markets and not just the u.s stock markets. If you look at somewhere in asia, like china, the china a50, which is this one over here, can see over here right, i just zoom out a little bit.

It's the weekly timeframe, it's still in an uptrend. If you look at india right over here, the nifty 50, this market is still in an uptrend, so generally i'll, say u.s stock markets around the world. They are in an uptrend and you know you should be looking for buying opportunities. So now, back to my my question earlier, you know: how could you have you know captured this uh upward swing up higher, so i'm not sure if you recall right, but sometime back, i publish a video which is this one over here right.

It's something like you know, this simple trading strategy has a 88.89 winning rate, and in that video i shared a simple concept right on how you can actually time right. The stock markets and the concept lies on the fact that the stock market is a mean, reverting market, and if you haven't watched that video right do so after you watch this video right, don't don't watch it now do so later and that video pretty much shares Right how the stock market is uh mean reverting market. Whenever there's a pullback, the pullback tends to end right and then continue the long term uptrend. So, as you can see over here this over here, this pullback all right.

There are some traders who might think. Oh man, this is gon na, be you know the end of the blue market. Look at right now, this this possible double top pattern over here. Look at how bearish this scandal is right.

It's time to sell the market, sell everything sell. My house sell my stock, sell my wife and kids and hold on to cash, but statistically it has shown right at the stock markets. Usually, when there's a pullback, it tends to rebound higher from that, and - and one thing i shared is that if the 10 period rsi is below 10 right, that's where you know there's a good chance of the market rebounding higher. So if you just pull out your rsi indicator, actually i already have it over here.

You can see over here. This is a 10 period, rsi right. I actually share all this in the video which is in this video here. So after this video, you can just go down to this video here and click on this video and watch it to learn more about the rules, the concept, the system et cetera, but do it later.

So what i mentioned is that whenever the stock market right, the 10 period, rsi goes below 30. At this point, it's currently about this point is what 27.38, the rsi. How do i know that? Because you can see at the rightmost side of the rsi, this figure here: okay, it's currently about 27.38, so 10 period rsi is below 30.. So this means right there's a good chance that the stock market is about to rarely hire so true enough right, uh, this market did really higher from there again.

This is not a complete trading system on its own right. I'm not going to cover all this in this video again, if you want to learn more i've shared with you the video earlier, but that should signal to you that you know you shouldn't be looking to shock the stock market, but rather to to so-called be aware That the pullback might end right and the trend is about to resume and continue higher. So whenever the s p 500, the 10 period rsi, is below 30. That's kind of like a signal right to look for buying opportunities.

So right now where? Where else can we look for buying opportunities? So if you look at the stock market right now, the price is now at this area of resistance and i'm not interested to buy smack in front of this area of resistance. We have a very nice strong price rejection on this candle wick over here, so shot them wise. We could possibly see some weakness. Maybe the market could swing that swing down back lower towards this area of support.

So, in terms of opportunities, the stock market, i would say around the 300 area, this area of support right is where you want to look for potential buying opportunities. If you are looking to trade the index somewhere about here, okay, looking for buying opportunities, this is also where the price coincides with the 200 me right, which serves as a nice, pretty nice confluence area as well. Okay, so so that's for the stock market later on i'll share with you a particular stock that i'm looking at looking at as well, but for now generally, the stock market still bullish on this. So next one right, let's have a look at cryptocurrency right.

This is another market that has captured the attention of traders because it broke about 15 000 and there's a good chance. If you ask me, you could retest back this highs over here at 20, 000. right, what's there to stop it, okay, so this is a very sentiment driven market and if you look at the price section of it right now, if you look at the price structure, No reason to be bearish on this market: the market is making a series of higher highs and higher lows. If you just you, know, see right now.

This market is in a strong, uptrend right above the 20ma. So now the question is now: where do we buy? Do we enter the market right now, so let me share with you my thoughts on it right. So if you were to buy right now at this price point right, there's no price structure where you can lead against to set a reasonable stop loss. Okay, and also you know to me, there's a kind of like chasing the market, so let me share with you a couple of scenario that i want to see on bitcoin right before i look to buy so first scenario is this right? You know that this market is in the long term uptrend and on this time frame right.

It's uh, you might not be seeing any opportunities as of right now, but what you can do is go down to a lower timeframe like the four-hour time frame, and you see now now things are different, because now you can identify this swing low over here and This swing high, so what could possibly happen? Is the market could swing down, lower re-test this swing low? Then it reverse back up higher above this swing low and close bullishly above it. What it can then do is go along on the next candle open, stop loss right. You can set it one atr below this lows possible target. You can look to take before this swing high or resistance right and, if you want to you, know, write the upward momentum.

You can look to take partial profits at this swing high and then write the remaining half right. That's the mark! If the market can break out higher, so that's the first scenario, i'm looking at second scenario is that what if the market doesn't come and retest this swing low, because there's a good chance, the market won't re-test that swing low. So what now? So? What else i'll be looking at is on a daily timeframe? I want to see the market consolidate to kind of like store potential energy for the next wave higher. So if you look at bitcoin, it's a very, very technical driven market where it really respects technical analysis.

So i just go up to the weekly time frame or if you can't even see in a daily time frame right, let's, let's uh, let's see on the daily timeframe, you can see that this market is all about. You know, storing potential energy and then releasing it. Storing potential energy and then releasing it. So what do i mean by storing potential energy? So this occurs when the volatility of bitcoin markets shrink right.

This is a sign to you that the market is about to make a move. So you can see over here just before the breakout volatility shrank right considerably over here. Look at the range of the candles getting smaller and smaller same for here right volatility strength. Then you break out shrink a little bit here before it hits up higher again shrinks a little bit before it makes a move down lower.

So what i'm looking to see on bitcoin is for volatility to contract, to shrink and i'm going to let the 20 period moving average be my guy okay. So right now, what i want to see is for the 20ma to catch up with the price of bitcoin means the price of bitcoin has to at least you know, re-test the 20 me to consolidate it. So for you to retest the 20ma, it has to make a pullback consolidate from somewhat of a bull flag pattern, a pendant right before uh it can. You know this is, will be assigned to me that you know it's storing potential energy for the next move, higher.

Okay, so i want to see a volatility contraction pattern of bitcoin can be the form of a blue flag pattern. For example, i want a 20dm to catch up with the price right for the price of touch of 20 me. When that happens. Right then i'll be more inclined to buy the breakout of bitcoin above this highs.

So let's say the price does re-test at 20 me at this point. I'm perfectly fine placing a buy, stop order just above this heist and to buy the breakout if bitcoin can trade above the swing high. Okay, as for stop loss, you can just set it one atr below the most recent swing low, like here or below the 20ma, and then again, if you want to you, know uh, to write the next wave up higher, you can trail your stop loss using the 20Ma, you can use a atr indicator to trail your stop-loss and see how far the next upward movement can go. So that's for bitcoin! Next one! Okay, let's have a look at the fx market, new zealand dollar.

Again, you can see that over here right. The theme here is similar, the setups that i'm sharing they're all pretty much trending markets and new zealand dollar is no exception. You can see that this is the area of resistance price recently broke above it so again. Now the question is, you know, price? Isn't an uptrend right? I know that raider, but where do i buy good question? So at this point let me ask you: do you want to be buying at this price at this heist over here and some might say? Yes, somebody say no okay.

So for me personally, i would say i'll go with no, because there's just no, i would say from a risk to reward standpoint. You know i don't see anything attractive because if i want to buy right now at bare minimum right, my stop-loss has to go below this price structure. I would say somewhere about here, so this is a pretty darn white stop-loss over here, okay, so what i would rather do is to let the price come to me, so you've identified that this is an area of value where previous resistance could become support. So if you go down to a lower timeframe like the four-hour timeframe or the eight-hour timeframe, whichever right, this is the same area of value that you have seen earlier.

Okay, so looking for the price to come down re-test, this swing low, reject close strongly back above it then you can go along on the next candle open, stop loss. Now again, let's say below this price structure: 180 below this swing low somewhere. Here now your stop loss right is much tighter, much smaller and from a risk to real standpoint. Let's say from here to here: you can now have a potential target, let's say at this swing height, and this would be a potential uh reward right.

Let's call it uh, let's call it reward re and over here is your risk. Your stop loss all right, so from a risk to reward standpoint right. You can see it's now much more attractive right. I would say, like a one to one point: five from the looks of this chart: okay, so this is how i would rather uh be patient and let new zealand dollar the price point to retrace towards an area of value.

Yes, i know the price is in an uptrend, but just because it's in an uptrend doesn't mean that you have to buy immediately right. You can always be patient and let the market come to you and offer you a much more attractive risk to reward on the trade. Okay, and one last thing is promise right. I want to share with you one particular stock that i'm looking peloton.

Okay, so if you look at this chart right this market just zoom out a little bit, you can see that it's still in an overall uptrend this market. Okay, and if you just pull out the 50mm, i would say somewhat in a healthy uptrend has been consistently above the 50ma, but recently you know pretty much break below it. But then, aside right, i'm still bullish on this, because you can see over here right market did retrace down lower into this previous swing high. That could become support right on top of it right.

It has a couple of price rejection over here this over here on this red candle and then the most recent recent one yesterday where he formed somewhat of a bullish hammer. So i'm bullish on peloton because to me the uptrend is still intact. It's at this area of value right, which is at the previous swing high, that could become support around the 50 period, moving average area as well, so that served as a nice confluence so looking to buy on the next candle open right first possible target right at Around the 130 price point right to capture another swing up higher on peloton all right, and, of course, if you want to to write the next wave up higher, you can again right right the trend by trailing your stop-loss or taking partial profits at this uh. This swing high and to have the remaining, let's say, half of your position to write the next wave up higher okay, so definitely worth keeping a lookout for peloton.

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