Hey hey, what's up my friend, so welcome back to this month's market analysis. This is where i publish a monthly video sharing my thought, process, trading, ideas and trades that i took you know each and every month, so it's kind of like you know me. You know i share a lot of educational training, strategies and techniques on my youtube channel, but sometimes you know how do you make sense of all these different? You know tools out there. So what i do is that you know, through this market analysis you'll see how i analyze the market using a price action perspective and hopefully that you get to understand right.

My thought process better right, while doing so. So let's get things started right. So first thing: first, the first market that i want to talk about this uh this this month right is aussie against the yen. If you look at this market right, let's look at the the big picture: aussie against the yen on the weekly time frame.

This market is in a downtrend right. You just look at the price. You know that you know the market is making a series of lower highs, lower highs, lower highs, lower highs and lower lows, lower low, lower low low low low low and clearly right, you want to be selling in such a market condition. So now the question is: where do we sell right? We know the trend is down.

We want to be looking for selling opportunity. The next question is where so. This is where we ask ourselves on the chart. Right, i mean ask ourselves right: where might potential selling pressure come in and from the looks of things the price has now retested previous this key area of support that could now become resistance.

If you look at this right, this shows you something like a dragonfly doji. Okay, uh, or is this a gravestone doji? I can't exactly remember the exact name. I think it's a gravestone doji showing price rejection around the 70 price level. So at this point right, you can see that there's a little bit of selling pressure coming in and if you're, on a better time your entry, you can go down to a lower time frame, in this case, let's say the eight hour time frame to time your Entry, so at this point on eight hour time frame, you understand the big picture perspective.

You know that on eight hour time frame - yes, this is a sort of an uptrend all right, but if you understand multiple time frame analysis, you know that on the weekly time frame, this is simply a retracement on the weekly time frame. So you want to see right the eight hour timeframe to show signs of crack to show that selling pressure is coming in right before you take a short setup and what i'll be looking for is this okay? So i know that on eight hour time frame, this is an area of support. I'm looking for the price to come into this area of support to fool right traders to buy at this area of support, so we get a slight bounce and then, when the price bounce right slightly, this group of traders would have their stop-loss possibly below this lows Or this lows and when the price cannot hit higher, guess what i want to be selling this market. So, as the price heads down lower breaking below these lows, i want to go short and this time i'm going short and my trade is in line with the weekly time frame trend as you've seen earlier on the weekly timeframe.

So now i'm putting the odds in my favor. Can you see where i'm coming from? So what about stop loss right now? My stop-loss will be placed one atr above this high somewhere about the 69 dollar price point and for targets right. A few ways to look for targets is number one could be possibly at this swing low and another one at this swing low over here. So this could be a tp1 or tp2, so this is from a swing trading perspective.

If you want to write a trend lower, you can use moving average right to trail your stop loss. You can use the chandelier crosstalk to trail your stop-loss many ways to go about doing it, but i think the key thing to share right is: you know where i'm looking to sell and where is my stop-loss as for targets, it really depends on the type of Move you want to capture, so this is aussie yeah the first market to share with you. You can see that uh right now, it's still early. There is still time right by the time this video is published.

There is still time for you to act on it. Moving on next one euro aussie, if you look at the weekly time frame again, this is a another aussie pair and oh by the way. If you enjoy right such price action trading analysis, i recommend you go down to my website over here trading with rainer.com. Okay, just scroll down a little bit click this orange button and you'll get the ultimate guide to price section trading.

You better understand what price action trading is about: support resistance, candlestick patterns and much more and this market analysis that you're watching right now will make a lot more sense all right. So if you haven't downloaded, go and do so, it's free and i'll send it to your email. So, as i was saying right, euro aussie, if you look at a weekly timeframe, weekly timeframe, what is the trend? Well, the trend is in an uptrend right series of high highs. Higher lows: do you need to draw for you? Okay, quick one higher highs, highs, highs, highs, highs and then lows, lows, lows, lows, lows higher lows: so market is in an uptrend next thing: right market did a pullback, a relatively sharp pullback and retested this previous previous resistance.

That could become support and we in fact, right last week we had a nice bounce over here notice, this nice bounce up higher forming somewhat of a hammer pattern. So now the question is: where do we enter again? We can use multiple time frame analysis. You go down to the eight hour time frame and look for a break of structure. Look for buyers right to come in and show you showing you signs right.

Then they are about to take the price higher about to. You know, push the price higher. So what you need to look for is that on eight hour time frame, you can see that as of right now, this move. Yes, it's a strong bullish candle towards the upside, but the question is but the thing is this is that you have no idea whether this is a retracement against this downtrend.

On this eight hour time frame, you have no idea. I have no idea myself, but one thing i know is that on the higher timeframe, the weekly timeframe market is in an uptrend. Other thing is, i also know is that price has bounced off this area of value, which is previous resistance. That could become support, but i have no idea if that level is going to hold for a while or it's going to just briefly touch, and then you know break through it like this.

I have no idea, so this is where i let again the price action be my guide. So if you look at this chart eight hour time frame, this is an area of resistance. I know that potential selling pressure might come in at this area of resistance around the 173 area. So so, how do i know if you know selling pressure is going to take the price down lower or it will hold and break out higher? I have no idea so again what i'll be looking for is potential build up to form at this area of resistance if the price can hold at this area of resistance, for you know, like you, know, five candles, seven candles, ten candles, it's telling you that buyers Are willing to buy in front of this area of resistance, and if that happens, i wan na be a buyer.

Okay, if this happens, i wan na be a buyer. Let's say price come into this area of resistance starts to consolidate for like five to ten candles. I want to be a buyer right because if the price can break above this area of resistance, i want to go long. Stop loss one atr below this lows somewhere here.

Can you see how all this comes together? Number one? We know that, on the higher time frame, the trend is up number two. We are trading from an area of value, as i've highlighted on this red line over here number three, we have an entry trigger. Let's call it et right where we have a build up format: resistance, telling you that buyers are willing to buy at this higher prices or the sellers aren't able to push the price lower right. So there's a con there's a built up form.

There is potential energy. That's being stored right now, and if the price can break above this highs, there could be a follow through up higher, and i want to be long, okay and also on top of it, as the price consolidates at resistance short sellers are going to put their stop Loss above these highs - and they are stop loss right if you're shot the market. Your stop loss is actually a buy, stop order. So, as the market trades above the highs, this buy stop holder order will create right, further buying pressure to push the price up higher.

So that is in my favor, if i'm looking to to buy this market, if this uh setup unfolds and that's my plan right for euro aussie and one final thing to share with you - is a market that i believe, a lot of traders are not looking at Because it's the bond markets, you know it's boring right on equities market on the stock market. I want to oil markets. This is where the excitement is we're on the forex markets. But if you look at the five year treasury note futures right things are looking pretty interesting again.

Let's look at what the big picture is right, just zoom out or you can go up the weekly time frame, it's fine, but we can agree that this market is in an uptrend. That's one number two price has been: you know consolidating right for a number of months now right, look at this chart pattern. This might be something familiar to you. This is what we call an ascending triangle pattern.

If you look at the volatility of this market, it has been relatively low over the last couple of months right. Look at the range of these candles over here, very small range candles. So this tells you right! Something is brewing over here. If you look at the chart right, the market moves from a period of low volatility to high volatility to low volatility, etc.

A quick example is over here, see low volatility. Here range of candles are small, then you expand up higher okay. Now the range of candles are getting smaller again. If i look at this chart, the path of least resistance is towards the upside.

It could expand up higher again, never know i could be wrong, but from the looks of things right, i want to be a buyer. In this case, and i'm looking to buy if the price can break above this heist with a buy, stop order, if the price can break above that heist, i want to be long stop loss. So i can either go one atr below this lows or this lows over here: two possibilities: right, that's where i'll set my stop loss, so that is the plan right. So that's the first option.

Second option. I could be this right if you look at this uh daily time frame. You see that this over here is a swing low. You might get an pre-breakout entry.

What i mean by this is that you might be able to enter the breakup before the breakout occurs. How this happens right is, let's say you go down to the eight hour time frame or even a four hour time frame. You can see that this is the area of support right that you saw earlier on a daily time frame. In fact, this is the swing low that you saw in the daily time frame.

So what i'll be looking for is for the market to swing down lower here on this time frame and then show a strong bullish price rejection close up higher back above this area of support. If that's the case, it tells me that the price right has rejected these lower prices at this area of support, and i want to be long right because, again, on a higher time frame, the trend is up is in the volatility contraction pattern. I would go along all right: stop loss 180 below this low somewhere here and in anticipation of higher prices, all right to see if the price can break out of this area of resistance right, because you can imagine that if the price can break out of this Area of resistance right from a risk to reward standpoint, it's pretty darn attractive. You could make like one two, three or more okay.

So this is what i call the pre-breakout technique. Now, if you have enjoyed the market analysis right, then i want to welcome you to join pro trader sage right. This is my premium membership right where you will get such market analysis every single week right. I usually publish this type of videos on a weekend to share with you my my insights of the market, the trading opportunities, i'm looking at the trades i took and much more so that's not all right because, as a pro trader sage member, you get many benefits That come along with it.

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