Hey hey, what's up my friend, so welcome back to this month's price action analysis. This is a monthly video that I do right where I break down right into trading opportunities that I'm seeing here in the market tonight, and I must share with you it all. My wieners my losers, my top process, why I'm about to enter a trade? How I'm looking to trade it and stuff like that? So if you like to you, know, see right how I find trading opportunities in the market, then this type of you know videos is for you right. So so, let's kick things alright.

By sharing with you a loser right, a loser that I had right while trading last month, so the pair is actually New Zealand yen and let me just walk you through right now. What was my top process? You know where I enter that trade and you know why it was a loser and what you can learn from it so backtrack a little bit right back in me. Okay, you can see that this market, New Zealand yen, is in a downtrend. You can see you know, series of you know, lower highs and lower lows.

In fact, there's this a trendline. If you just look back in time right, you can actually see this trend line that the price has been respecting. So clearly, my bias is towards the downside and, as you know, I don't just sell the market because the market is in a downtrend. I like to trade from an area of value.

So what I know this right is that this market - yes number one. It's in a downtrend number two. We have what I call a bill: update, spin form, let's call it bu right, and this is the type built up, that's being fall. So what's interesting about built up right is that the market is in a low-volatility environment.

This means that your market is kind of like storing potential energy to make a big move right, whether higher or lower, it's pretty much anyone's guess. But for me right, I was looking to sell this market right, since overall trend is towards the downside. So as much as possible, I want to look for selling opportunities right within the built up, so on this time frame it can be difficult to see right the opportunity that presented itself so when I went down to the lower timeframe like the eight hour time frame, So let me share with you the opportunity that I saw so what I saw is that again right this over here is pretty much the build up. Then you saw on a weekly time frame and I noticed that on the eight hour time frame, there is a false break setup over here.

So let me just zoom in to see to let you see clearer. You can see over here. The market actually came into this area of resistance came into. It then rejected in the heist and closed near the lows of this time frame.

So this to me is a form of price rejection, and you have seen earlier that on a higher time frame. The overall trend is in a downside, is the I mean it's in a downtrend and also we are in a built up. So my top process said, if you know this is a opportunity for me to place a short trade right having my stop-loss right above this high somewhere about here, and I know right that this market right now is in a built up. So in the built on right, if the price breaks out of the built up the risk to reward on the trade can be pretty done, favorable you can, you know, make any way.

No one to tree are. I mean one two three risky: what ratio of one to five more more, because if volatility expands in your favor right, you can see that the profit potential on the trade is pretty done attractive. So that really don't make me! You know want to take me straight. So I went shot okay and, as you can see right, the price pretty much went a little bit in my favor over here when a little bit in my favor before it actually exploded up higher and I got stopped up for a loss.

So a couple of lessons here - number one: this is a trait that I would love to take over and over again because again, when you place your traits in a built-up and if you kneel the the direction right, I mean no one can predict which direction you Break out whether is it higher lower, but if you get in the trade right, you got the right direction right. You can see that me breakout it occur, so it could be explosive right in the potential profit is really there so yeah. In this case right, I got a direction wrong, even though I'm trading with the trend - hey, it happens right, but still this is a trend I would love to take it over and over again - and a second lesson I want to share with you here is that, If you note this right, then the market is in a built up and you enter trade, and if the market moves against you right in this type of market condition, you don't want to be averaging into your losses. You'd want to be widening your stop-loss because, as you can see right when the price broke out of this built up primarily broke out of it, it became fast and furious is where the potential energy that was stored earlier, it's not being released, and when it's released Right, you can be sure that you know your losses.

Can snowball really quickly if you do not cut your loss readily right so again right when you treat when the price is forming a build up, if you're wrong get out of trade quickly, don't pray, don't hope and don't wish you know they're. You know the market comes back in my favor, no, all right, that is disaster and another thing to share use that prior to the price, breaking all right. You can see that there is also another valid setup. Then you could have taken right and this area of support over here again.

This is another false break. The price take out this low stick of this lows and then reverse and close higher above support, so I've. Clearly I didn't take this straight right. Money I'll be sharing with your winner, so I didn't take this straight right, but this would have been an opportunity for someone to buy when the prices forming a build up on a higher time frame in there.

You know reap you know: potential profits write it up. Favorable to you, okay, so yeah! This is a first thing. You share with you another thing to share it's a potential opportunity than saying so, there's a trick just to share with you my top process, so another one to share with you is the pound or Z. So you just look at the pound or Z right now.

You can see that this market right it's in a downtrend. How do I know that right because I see a series of lower highs and lower lows. I mean you just look at the Chandra. You know that this market right, it's pretty much - you know towards the downside also it has also broke below this area of support recently.

Okay, so now the question is a: where do you enter that rate? So number one we understand the market structure price is in a downtrend next thing: where is the area of value? Where might be a good trade location right to look for selling opportunities? So you look at this daily time frame and from the looks of things right things here is a little bit crammed to find trading opportunities. So this is where, if you understand multiple time frame analysis, like you know, going down to the four hour time frame, things will become much clearer over here. So if you look at a four hour time frame, okay, now you can find an area of value market is still in the downtrend universe. Me there seems to be in a healthy trend.

If you overlay the 50 ma right notice, the price has been bouncing off right a few times already one okay. This is twice tries over here so now. The key thing now is to be patient: don't chase the market, because if you were to chase the market - let's say you sell over here and if the market doesn't pull back to us at 50 MA. You can see that you have to swallow that that drawdown and chances are right.

I don't know where you gon na put your stop-loss, but I'm gon na guess. If you sell at this point, your stop-loss is probably somewhere here or here, and you get stopped up on the pullback, so be patient. Okay, don't don't rush, don't jump the gun, don't chase the market so where you wan na be patient right is, I would say, an area of value that let's zoom in a little bit could be possibly somewhere here right around the 185 level. Where previous support, I could become resistance, and, on top of it, coincides right with this a 50 ma as an area of failure.

So this is where you look for potential selling opportunities again, no, nothing too fancy over. Here. You can just look for a simple price rejection, like you know, a shooting star, a bearish engulfing pattern right to time your entry towards the downside, so something like the price, retrace, retrace, retrace breaks out, I'll break out and smash download close lower a crap. So when you know people buy break out and if are crap right, that's where you know you want to be selling right to take advantage of traders who long and chase the breakout.

So when you get this type of price rejection, when the price hits higher and then smash down, lower, reverse and close near the lows of the candle, this is a 2 meter price rejection and you want to be looking for selling opportunities and again we're not selling. Just because there's a bearish candle, there are multiple factors in play over here number one overall trends to us: the downside number two: we have the area of value which has a confluence of the 50 ma, as well as the previous support at turn, resistance and number 3, we have a valid a price. Rejection. Right could be a candlestick pattern, a bearish pattern right to have us time our entry towards the short side, okay, so this is for the pound or Z.

Moving on what else can I share with you, okay dollar Mexican? So this is a trick that I took then and yeah it uh. Let me share with you my thought process again, so this one over here right, if you zoom all right, you might see that to a trader to a new trader, might they might see arena this market is a in an uptrend and I agree right long-term moist. Yes, this is in an uptrend, okay and - and this might be just a really deep pullback, but here's the thing right as a trader as a price action trader. You also want to focus on them now.

So here's my thought process right when I'm looking at the now trading now so yes, I know that this overall market right could be in a long-term uptrend, but as of right now, okay, this market seems to have broken out of this consolidation pattern, or some people Call this a pennant on whatever the name isn't important. Then he broke below this, this area of support, okay, when he broke down. Okay, the next thing that comes to my mind, ask myself: is that way my potential buying pressure coming where my people look to you know, look for buying opportunities in this market and I'm a price action trader. All I need to do is look back, and I would say that this is a potential area of the pot over here.

Okay, so, in other words, this area around the $ 21 price point buying pressure could possibly step in so anywhere from now to the $ 21 price point when this market could actually no hit down lower. Before you know, serious buying pressure comes in to push the price higher. So when I saw this right, okay, so here's my top process, the daily timeframe. As of now, I am bearish right because I'm looking at it now trading the now so whenever in doubt to the for our timeframe right, here's what I saw so I saw this dollar Mexican.

It was actually forming this. This is a consolidation over here right, just pull out the 20 ma. You notice that he has been contained below the 20 ma for quite a while all right tested once almost twice and now at that time over here. So my top process is that hey? You know the big picture, the daily timeframe.

The overall momentum is towards the downside. Until 21 dollar price point right, then he potential buying pressure could come in. At this point. I still want to be looking for selling opportunities, so what I did is, I simply went with the sell: stop order to go shop on the break of this swing low then my stop-loss is 180 are above this high somewhere about here, okay and if the price Goes in my favor, okay, I will just look to trill my stop-loss as it moves in my favor.

So in this case, yes, it did when, in my favor, I'm just having a 380, our trailing stop loss, which is this this purple line over here. So if the price breaks and close above it I'll exit the trade, so this is kind of like how I trade and capturing a quick burst of momentum. Okay, so this is a dollar Mexican trade. Again, the top process is pretty much similar to on the bot identifying.

What is the higher time frame buyers right, then, finding trading opportunity a set up on the lower timeframe is if it's valid okay. So let me share with you another thing: okay, so a couple of more things before we sum up today's video. Let's talk about the S & P 500 gained same concept, so one thing about S & P: 500 is dead. Look at a weekly timeframe! Okay! Let me ask you: is this a bearish chart, as this timeframe is the SMP 500 on a weekly timeframe? Is it bearish? Well from the looks of thing there is nothing bearish on this chart as well? If you ask me right, I am bullish right.

You should be bullish right on the US stock market market is still in an uptrend. Don't look for selling opportunities, don't think that you know, given all the bad news, that's going on in the world right now, you know you know a lot of bad news right. The co vide maybe have some racism issues in the US again. The news right.

Yes, it's out there, but ultimately what matters is the price, because the price is what pays remember the price is what pays if you buy a $ 15.00, you sell it $ 20. You will make a profit. The price is, what pays? The news is not gon na pay, you so pay attention to the price, and it's off right now, the SMP 500. The US stock market looks like in a pretty nice uptrend - okay, not exactly a nice uptrend, but we can agree that you know it's in an uptrend about next day, again, almost retesting the highs bullish.

Okay, so question is: how do you buy if you trade stocks right, then you want to look for buying opportunities for the US stocks out there, I possibly the ones which are exhibits, the signs of a strongest relative strength. If you create a es right or the S & P 500, you can look for trading opportunities only for our timeframe, so you saw early on a daily timeframe. You can see that this is the pullback. It has ended, and right now we are, on this hour, called the trending move of the lick so possible opportunities right on the four hour time frame.

Again, your bias is towards the upside. So again, next thing you want to look for is your area of value. You really know the biases towards the upside okay, so number one bias is to the upside number two area of value. So in this case you can actually look at either moving average or support resistance.

So what I notice is that the 200 ma seems to be a pretty respect that MA and also I'm seeing a potential previous resistance resistance that could again support, and it has the confluence of this 200 ma as well. So this around the twenty nine twenty level could look for potential buying opportunities, maybe something as simple as a bullish. Price rejection comes down, gets rejected. Close strongly above support can look for buying opportunities.

Okay, so this is the SMP 500 and last but not least, right one last thing just to share with you. This has been on my radar for four weeks or maybe even months now. The bond mark is the u.s. five-year Treasury note.

This is exciting stuff, because if you look at this market, you just do morrow. You can see that this is market overall, it's in an uptrend, and if you recall earlier, when I talked about the New Zealand yen, I said that volatility contraction. He moves from a period of low volatility to high volatility when the price is forming a build-up. You won't be looking for entries into it, because if you get the direction right, if you nail it right, your risk to reward on the trade can be pretty done.

Favourable and that's what's happening now on the five-year Treasury, note futures couple of ways you can trade is no more than a very straightforward way is to just simply have a buy stop order and by the way, this video here is solely for educational purposes. Sorry, I am NOT responsible for your profits. I lost trade only with money. You can afford to lose right, so yep.

So that's a disclaimer right. I will be looking to place a buy, stop order above this heist and my stop-loss, so it will be 180 are below this lows over here so somewhere about here. My stop-loss would be okay, so this is a very straightforward breakup trading setup, as you can see that the volatility of the markets here is getting small, it's getting smaller and smaller, so I'm expecting something big to happen. So, yes, I'm trading with the trend.

Yes, volatility is lower in a, but it doesn't mean that it has to. You know, move in my intended direction. I could be wrong. Market could break up and then reverse now in collapse, though it's possible, that's what we trading is all about.

Probably this is all about. You know odds when you toss a coin. You do not know when it's gon na be hit or tails and it seemed for treating you never know right when you, when you propose to the girl of your dreams right, you never know it is she's gon na say yes or no I mean, unless you Have been no cutting her for like a long time right, if you know otherwise, that's a better example. Okay, never mind ignore that right.

So basically, it's all about probabilities, so the first setup is very straightforward: right buying the brick of this size. Second, one or a little bit more advanced technique. This way, you can look to time your entry on the lower timeframe, so in this case on the in our timeframe, all right - I would say this level over here around the one to five level here around here, where I just highlighted - take a look for buying Opportunities right at this area of support again look for something simple. Like the falls break right price comes down, lower, get rejected, close up higher.

You can look to go long right in anticipation that hey if the price breaks up higher, if it breaks above the highs of the build-up, you can you know catch the explosive move right, the and catch the next wave higher yep. So this is the five year Treasury note, futures, okay and yeah. That's that's pretty much what I have for you for for this week's market analysis any if you enjoy right such market analysis, the top process. You know the the potential opportunities that is coming up right then.

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