Hey hey, what's up my friend, so welcome back to this month's market analysis for those of you who you know have been watching these videos regularly. You know what i do is that each month i post my price action analysis of the markets, where i think trading opportunities are right now and how you can take advantage of it. But first a quick disclaimer right, whatever i share over here is purely for educational purposes, whether you make money, whether you lose money, it's your responsibility. Do you agree if you agree, then continue watching so first thing.

First, the first market that i want to share with you over here is aussie against the swiss franc. So how i'll break this down is that, first and foremost, let's look at the big picture perspective. Okay, so weekly time frame, you can see that aussie swiss franc is in a downtrend, so market making a series of lower highs and lower lows. Okay, you can see very obvious, so basic technical analysis will tell you that you know in the long run.

This market has been consistently heading lower over time, but here is where it might catch some. Some of you off guard because you look at this chat but rainer you know rain. Look at this rainer! This is a strong. You know bullish move from the buyers right.

Do you want to be selling at this point in time? And yes, i agree right that this over here, it's a somewhat of a sign of strength from the buyers and if you just look at this right, i would say this is a possible pullback against this long-term downtrend. Okay and this could possibly be the pullback. So now the question is: do i buy or do i sell, because if i buy up against the long term downtrend, if i sell this pullback right might continue higher and still stop me out of my trade. So what do i do? Okay? So the answer to this is that, yes, you can both be a buyer and a seller.

It depends on your own time frame that you're trading. So, for example, let's say you're trading off the four hour time frame: okay, just zoom out. You can see that overall, this time frame is bullish on this four hour time frame so yeah. If, for, if you are bullish right and you want to buy, you can look for buying opportunities at this area of support, maybe the price could hit down lower, do a false break, close back above support and hey.

You know that's a valid setup to go long and possible uh targets at this area of resistance here, okay, now what about selling opportunities right? So if you look at selling opportunities, let's say on an eight hour time frame, all right or even daily time frame. This is where things get a little bit tricky, because you don't want to be selling right as this upward trend line and this area of support, they are still intact right. This is where potential buying pressure could step in right. You want to sell in front of this area on your chart, but even though you know that longer term trend is towards the downside, so how do you kind of like re-consult this conflicting information? So this is where it pays to be patient.

Okay, it pays to be patient, so what i'm looking for right, if i'm looking to shop this market, is that the market must show me signs of crack signs of weakness that sellers are stepping in and what i'll be looking for is for this area here to Break down so the market must break and close below this area of support. When that happens, it tells me that hey, you know now the sellers are coming back in right. Do you know push the price lower and hopefully right to have the long-term downtrend continue lower? So when that happens, when this area breaks down, then i'll look for selling opportunity, and this can be something as simple as, for example, let's say you know nothing too complicated. Let's say price breaks down.

Okay, then it re-tests back previous support that turn resistance over here. I could look for price rejection right to short, this market could be something as simple as a shooting star. Bearish engulfing pattern like this, you know, goes up then suddenly reverse and close near the lows of the day i'll be looking to sell on the next candle open, stop loss can go. 180 are above.

This highs possible targets at this swing low and, if you're a bit more uh more gung-ho right, you can look to have possible targets at this major swing low over here. Okay, so i hope this makes sense right, so how you want to buy and how you want to sell is a matter of time frame and a matter of patience right, especially if you want to shop this market. You want the price to show you weakness. First, before you look for selling opportunities, okay moving on next one, so five-year treasury note future.

So we spoke about this quite a number of times, i think, maybe even in last month's market analysis. So this is quite straightforward. If you look at this market, the daily time frame market is in an uptrend right, just zoom out. Okay, you can see that this is trading near multi-year highs.

Okay, maybe even at all-time highs, i'm not sure yeah. So you can see that this market is bullish. There's nothing to be bearish about this market. So if you go down to the let's say the daily time frame, okay, what i'm looking for is to buy the breakout.

As you know, i don't like to buy breakup when the market makes a huge parabolic move. Instead, what i want to see is a build up before the breakout, so in this case this is the build up, that's being formed on top of this area of resistance. So this to me is a sign of strength. It tells me that buyers are willing to buy in front of resistance they're coming in and willing to buy at these higher prices.

I don't know why maybe there's some inside information right there. You know the fed is going to do something they're just willing to buy at this higher prices. That's all i can see objectively at this point in time. So again, i'm not gon na you know uh, uh, fight them right.

The trend is up, build up is being formed. I have a logical place to set my stop loss. I can manage my risk. This is a trade that i wan na.

Take okay. So how do you trade this again? Nothing too complex, no fancy! Crossovers! You know, indicators whatsoever, the price, so what i'm looking to do is to place a buy, stop order above this highs. Okay, so if the price trades above it i'm long, so where do i set? My stop loss? Okay, since i see that this is the lows of the build up, i can simply set my stops right, uh distance below it 180 or somewhere about here. Okay, so i have a logical place to set my stop loss as well.

So this is the uh potential breakout right that could occur on five-year treasury, note, futures of course right. This is not the only game plan right. If you go down to the eight hour time frame, you might be able right to enter the breakout before the breakout. So let me explain so on the eight hour time frame, you can see uh this key level here, okay, where the lows of this build up is actually this area of support over here.

So what could possibly happen is that the market takes a swing now lower and rate that stops right below this area of support. Then it reverse up and close back above support. Okay. So this way this is what i call a false break: a false break down below this lows.

I can go along on the next candle open. My stops again can just go one atr below this low somewhere here and as for trade management targets right. So my suggestion is, you know you can take half at this area of resistance here right, take half of your your profits. Then you have the remaining half, and this is where you can.

You know have the option of you know seeing right if the market can break above this area of resistance, because if it does, then at least you have half position left right to write the subsequent trend that could occur. So you have. You know options over here. Of course, if you don't want to take half your position, you want to write the full position if the price breaks out right, that's up to you as well, but bear in mind.

What could also happen is that the market from here it reverse down, gives you a false break, set up. You go along next candle open, it goes up and smash down lower. So if you don't take anything along the way you know you could see a winner become a loser, so there's really no right or wrong to this. It really depends on you know your goals, your objectives and how comfortable you are in your own trade management.

Okay, so this is just a food for taught right food for thought, making me hungry as well now so, okay moving on uh next, one nasdaq, okay, so this market, again amazing right just breaking out to all-time highs the technology stocks right, it's just insane! So what should we be doing right now, buying or selling based on this uh? Let's, based on this daily chart that you're seeing over here, did you say selling that's wrong right, you should be buying. You should look for buying opportunities. Okay! Yes, i know market is so bullish, man, you can't go any higher right. The prices is, you know to the to the moon.

You can't go any higher, but here's the thing right at this point. You just look at this at this point. Yeah, it can't go any higher guess what continuity goes up. Retrace goes up and higher.

So if you keep having the mindset of you can't go any higher, it has to reverse. It has to come down yes, one day you might be right, but before that day comes your account might be gone already. So why not just treat what you see, not what you think, okay, so bullish on this? That's for me! So the question is, you know: where do i enter the trade so looking at the daily time frame? Nasdaq? Okay? So let's pull out the 20ma and see? Where is the area of value? So you can see that this market has tested the 20ma number of times. All right once twice tries four times so.

Needless to say, right to me, the area of value is around the 10 200 area somewhere about here, where previous resistance could become support, and this has the confluence of the 20ma as well. So again, very simple uh. You can use the daily time frame, or even the eight hour time frame to time your entry. What i'll be looking for is again for the price to retest this previous area resistance that could actually support somewhere.

Here, okay, price hit down lower zoom right, reverse up higher close back above support, looking to buy, stop loss 180 below this lows. Possible target could be at this swing high over here, looking to take profits, okay, very simple, stuff, nothing too complicated again: okay and uh. One last thing: shall we new zealand, canadian, okay? So this one again, let's look at the big picture, all right, uh, daily time frame, zoom out, you can see that uh. Why not just weekly you can see this market has broke below this downward trend line.

This downward trend line right since uh 2016 all the way down it broke above it also. It's so broke above this uh key area of resistance. So if you look at the daily time frame, i am bullish on this right now. The question is, you know: where do i buy so? Yes, you can be bullish on the market, but it doesn't mean that it's the right time to buy because, for example, if you look at this market right now, if you buy on this, this uh right now market order.

Where do you set your stop loss? Where is a logical place to set your stop loss from the looks of things? I would say this level. The price has to go at least below this level below this area of resistance right, because this is the nearest price structure. Right so, let's say a distance below it somewhere about here from here to here, your stop loss is pretty wide. So what other options do we have? Why not be patient? Why not let the market come to you, so what i'm looking for instead now is for the market to come to me so on the eight hour time frame again, this is the 88 cent level where i would uh expect right previous resistance that could act as Support let the market come to you retrace back towards this area right then it can give you a bullish confirmation, like a bullish, engulfing pattern, close strongly back above this area of support.

Now, right you have this uh price structure that you can lead against, which is much uh tighter. So let's say your stop. Loss is again at this level. The distance of your stop loss is now from here to here so much tighter, so much smaller, right, better risk to reward on your trade, okay, so yeah! So that's how you know i'll be looking to trade.

This again, possible targets is again at this swing. High. Okay, look to you know book some of your profits at this swing high and then you know to see if the price can take this level out and then continue higher from there okay. So this is new zealand, canadian and just one last thing before before we conclude: okay, so aussie, canadian, okay, so just a lesson to share with you over here.

So this is something that i shared with a pro traders, age member. So if you're watching this, you might not be a member, but still i want to share with you this this important lesson anyway. So aussie canadian right is a market that uh yeah i've been watching for a while mind if i've even covered in last month's video. I can't remember that so at this point i want to share with you is that you know yes: market broke out of resistance market is bullish.

Right you can see over here. Market is bullish, okay and and here's the thing. Many traders right are looking to chase this market, all right and some smarter ones. They would know man rainer, i shouldn't be chasing the market.

You just said to let the price come to you. So what i'm going to do is i'm going to wait at this previous area of resistance, where previous resistance could become support and that's a fair argument. In fact, that's what i just shared with you earlier on new zealand, canadian, and what happened is that the market somehow seems to know what you're thinking. In fact, it knows what you're thinking and it starts to consolidate instead and it doesn't retest the level that you're looking at, which is at this area over here now.

So what now? Okay? Yes, you can wait at that level forever and if it doesn't come, you'll miss the subsequent move if the price breaks out higher. So what can you do? Okay, so this is where you know you got ta, be you got. Ta have to have multiple plan of effect. You can't just be a one-trick pony.

Yes, you can but you're kind of limiting your trading potential right if you're a one-trick pony. So what you want to do is to ask yourself right in what other ways could possible trading setups unfold itself. So let me share with you two over here right. The first one is, as the market consolidates over here all right: it forms a consolidation and, in fact, if you pull out the 20ma, the price actually touched the lows of the 20ma.

So this again is an added confluence. So what you can do is you can go down to a lower timeframe like the four hour time frame and look for a false break setup, and this is what happened right on the four. What time frame you can see that over here? This is the the lows of the build up you've seen earlier, there's a false break over here, where the price get down lower, taking out this lows and then closing back near the highs of the candle. This is what i call a force break setup again.

It can go along the next candle open, stop loss, one atr below this lows. Possible targets first target could either be here or even here, okay, and after which you have the remaining half of your position to write the move up higher okay. So this you can see right how this market can unfold itself, originally you're waiting for the price to re-test this previous resistance that could actually support it. Didn't so what now? What's your next game plan all right, so you want to have multiple plan of effect.

Now, let's say you missed this move over here, so what now so again right now all hope is not lost, because there's another trend, continuation trade - that could look to trade right. So this is like kind of like a blue flag. Okay, when the price breaks above this heist can look to go long, stop loss now will be 180 below this lows. So clearly, in this case, your stop loss is much wider, but still that's another valid plan of attack.

So the key lesson - the key message that i'm sharing over here is that you know uh for those of you who are new to 20 trading. Yes, you will be a one-trick pony, but as you progress as a trader as you've been trading for you know, months to years, you want to develop multiple plan of attack, because the market won't necessarily always behave in a way that you wish you would be. So you need to, you know, have different plans, you know what if this doesn't happen, and that happens. What will you do right so plan uh plan have a trading plan and you know anticipate right what the market, the possibilities that the market could do and you have different uh setups right to trade.

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