Hey hey: what's up my friends, so welcome back to this month's prize action analysis. This is a monthly video that i do to share with you. My trading thought process. I share with you the best trading opportunities that i'm seeing in the markets right now.

I walk you through my thought process why i'm looking to enter a trade where i'm looking to exit if a trade goes against me? What if the trade moves in my favor? How would i manage the trade and stuff like that? So if you have, you know enjoyed my you know: price action trading, videos, my training on youtube, and you want to see how i actually apply those concepts, strategies and techniques in the real life market. Then this type of video is for you. So without further ado, let's get started so the first pair that i want to analyze is the aussie against the swiss franc. This is a loss that i have uh taken recently and i want to share with you this loss because sharing profits is so mainstream.

It's all too, you know boring. So let's talk about this loss, so aussie swiss franc. Let me just walk you through, as you can see over here, there's a market. The daily timeframe is in an uptrend.

So what i did is that i was looking for trading opportunities on the eight hour time frame, which is my trading time frame, so the opportunity came in at this point over here. Okay, so at this point, what happened is that uh as you've seen earlier on the daily timeframe, we were in an uptrend. So let me just do a quick recap. You can see over here daily timeframe over here at this point, market is in an uptrend.

So if market is in an uptrend, i'm looking for buying opportunities, then on the eight hour time frame. Here's what i saw market came into this area of value over here this area of support, and what happened is that we had a false break right notice, how the price came into this lows of support, got rejected and closed higher right for this time period. So when i saw this right, i am bullish on this, and this was a signal for me to get on board the long trade. So i enter on the next candle open, which is this candle over here on this candle open.

I went long on this opening price. I had my stop-loss 1 atr below this lows, which is somewhere about here. So for those of you who are not familiar with this concept, let me just walk you through, so this is the atr indicator. I go with the 20 period atr using sma, so what this tells me is that it tells me the historical volatility of this market and on this time frame, and what i noticed is that for this market, historically over the last 20 candles right, it has an Average volatility of about 30 pips, so what i did right is that i identified a low over here and minus off 30 pips from this low.

So this is kind of like a buffer that i give myself on this trade in case the market spike below the lows and rebound higher. I want to give myself this buffer right, so i don't get stopped out prematurely, so i added this 30 pip stop loss to this low over here and my stop-loss is somewhere about this level here around 68 cents about here is my stop-loss, so i had my First target just before this swing high, my first target just before the swing high somewhere just be around the 69 level. Okay. So what happened? Is that the market? Okay, you can see over here.

This market went a little bit against me. They started moving my favorite and i'm like all right. Looking too looking uh, not too bad right, let's see how this one plays out next thing. I know boom right reversal and i got stopped out on this trade over here on this decline over here.

So this is a loss that i i took uh and it's a perfectly. You know valid trading setup that i take over and over again, but you have to understand that trading is all about probabilities and never certainty, and this is a loss that you know uh. I took it and i move on, and one thing to share as well. Is that why i also like this threat is that it also had the confluence of this 50 period moving average notice here right.

Not only did we have this area of support as the area of value. It also had this confluence of this 50 period moving average so that you know, uh really made the trade to me a lot better, but still ended up a loser. Okay, so this is aussie swiss, franc right, a trade that i taken - and i got uh stopped out moving on another aussie pair is another trade that i took. This one is still kind of like pending the result over here.

So you see over here on this aussie canadian pair again on the daily timeframe, we're looking at the big picture. This market is still overall in an uptrend, so i'm still looking for buying opportunities market is in an uptrend. I look for buying opportunities market in the downtrend. I look for selling opportunities, so in this case it's in an uptrend looking for buying opportunities, then again, on the eight hour time frame.

I noticed something similar this. We have this area of value, this area of support market broke below it and then quickly rebound and close back above support. I went long on the next candle open, stop loss once again, one atr below this low somewhere about here. So in this case, you can see that uh on this time frame on this market, the average true range, is about 35 pips.

So what i did is that i calculate the low of this candle minus of 35 pips, and that is my stop loss. So my stop loss is about 97 cents which is somewhere about here about there, okay. So for me right again, the first target i had was before this swing high over here. So in this case you can see that market did now slightly.

You know hating my favor and still you know too early to say whether this would be a winner or loser for this trade. So one thing to add is that also right uh, the reason why to be honest right in terms of the price action setup of this pair uh, it's not really the best that i like, because you notice there is a minor series of you - know: lower highs. Coming into this area of support right, that's usually a sign of weakness. I don't like to see this, but i kind of close one eye on this one, because there's also another statistical behavior for this market on aussie canadian, which is you know, whenever the price retests the previous week low or the previous week high, it tends to find Support resistance, so let me explain so if you look at this market right historically right, if you do your back testing, you notice that whenever aussie, canadian retest the previous week low or the previous week high, it tends to find support.

So in this case, what happened is that he found support right on this candle over here, which is the the previous week low. Is this price point, so you can see that this week, price re-test the previous week low and now it's uh having a slight bounce higher so with this statistical behavior, plus the price action analysis that i shared with you earlier this to me warranted. You know a long trading setup right then, to see you know how much further this market could move in my favor. So this is aussie canadian.

This trade is still pending and i will see how this one plays out and oh by the way right. I'm also hosting a free two-day online trading event uh on the 27th and 28th of february uh we'll talk about about you, know, trading strategies, techniques, mindset and much more. If you're interested i'll put the link below this video, you can check it out and if you want more details, we can talk about it. You know later towards the end of this video, but that is really right for you.

If you know, you've enjoyed my training so far and you want more uh, close, in-depth training that event right is for you, so i'll put a link just somewhere in below this video and moving on right next pair. That i want to talk about. Is new zealand, yen, okay, so again, building on the concepts that we have talked about earlier, basically, identifying markets in an uptrend we're looking for buying opportunities, so same thing for new zealand yen. So for this one over here, if you look over here right again at this point in time, market is still in an uptrend for new zealand, yet series of higher highs and higher lows higher highs, higher lows, pretty straightforward stuff, so what's interesting, is that at this Point right: this is where i got interested to do business.

This is at this point is where i got interested to look for buying opportunities. Why is that? And that's because the price pull back towards this area of value, where previous resistance could become support, and then i use the lower time frame the eight hour time frame right to help me time my entry. So this is the same area. You saw earlier this area of value previous resistance, which could become support.

Price came into it, got rejected closed back above support right. So this is where i got long. I entered on the next candle open, which is on this candle. I entered from the open, stop loss again, 180 are below this low first possible target, i said, was just before this swing high, so this one is a bit uh a little bit uh different.

So let me explain why i ended up talking taking off half my position at this swing high instead. So i know right that initially i set my first target at this swing high, because this is the most extreme swing high. What happened is that the market did move in my favor and then over here. It shows signs of you know in signs of our weakness, so you notice how the price came into this area and it started.

You know showing a bearish price rejection. You know couple of you know: uh lower close on the candles over here right. We have a lower, close and another lower close over here. So to me, at the back of my mind, right, yes, my first target it is at this swing high, but right now the market is telling me it has difficulty breaking above this swing high and there's a possibility.

It could, you know, swing down back towards the lows or even hit my stop loss. You know below here, so i had to make a choice. I could you know, choose to be stubborn right and stick with that original uh first target that i had or to adapt accordingly to this market condition. So what i did is that when the price did close lower, i took half my position off on this candle and then to leave the remaining at the original stop-loss and see whether the market could break out higher or reverse against me.

So in this case uh. Fortunately enough, for me it did reverse uh back in my favor, as you see, right, slight dip and then reverse back up high over here. So eventually, yes, he did. He might hit my first target, but you have to manage your.

I would say your expectations moving forward because if you were to not take any profit off the table, which is perfectly fine, if you can endure the volatility in the swings in your account, it's perfectly fine. But you have to be prepared right that the market could also reverse back down towards the lows and then hit your stop loss. So it's like the market almost came in to your target profit, but because you got stubborn got greedy, you hit your stop loss in state, so this is kind of like expectations that you have to adapt and change accordingly, as the new price action unfold itself, so Uh, this is new zealand. Yet i'm still having half of my position on this trade trailing my stop-loss and see how far this market can go.

So you can see over here on the daily timeframe. The the trend is still hitting up higher and i'm just trailing. My stops on the remaining position and see how far this market can go. All right, new zealand, yen and one last final uh chart that i want to share with you.

Is this stock over here right, plug so plug right? Just a brief overview. This company develops a hydrogen based uh battery cells. This is kind of like to replace the traditional type of batteries that you have in the market, and the benefit of this type of batteries is that you know you recharge faster. So when you know you use it in cars and stuff like that right, the downtime when the battery is charging is not as long so.

This is uh, definitely a, i would say kind of, like the maybe the future of batteries. I have no idea, i'm not really a fundamental person, but you can see that the price section of this stock right is strong right over the last. You know, since 2020, you can see that the advance in price has been steadily insane few right so right now. Okay, what's interesting right now is that this market seems to be forming a, i would say, digesting right the recent upswing in the move, so you notice the candles the recent range of these candles over here, they're kind of like no uh not really going anywhere.

I'm not going higher not going lower just kind of like you know, consolidating. So this to me right. It's uh a sign of uh, a string right, because it's telling me that the market is taking a pause, taking a breather, storing potential energy right for the next wave higher. So when do you buy or when do you enter this trade? So for me i like to use since for me right.

I know that this market is in a strong uptrend, i'm looking for buying opportunities. But if you look at this right compared to the earlier setups that i shared with you, where you know we trade from an area of value like support, swing low, there is no like obvious swing low until maybe possibly around this level here or over around here And if you ask me, there's a good chance that the market will not re-test this level, because it's pretty far away so you've got to kind of like kind of map up right, other cause of actions that you'll take right to enter this particular trading setup. So what i'm looking for is a trend, continuation, trade looking to buy the breakout in the direction of the trend and the way i will look at this, or rather the way that i will see that the market is getting ready to make a move is to Use the 20ma as a guideline, so this is the rate 20 period moving average over here. What i want to see is for the 20ma to catch up with the price, so in other words, i want a 20mm to slope up higher and look for the price to re-test the 20ma once it has re-tested or touched the 20ma.

This is to me it's a sign right, a signal that hey the market has digested this recent consolidation and it's getting ready to make the next wave up higher. So what i'm? What i'll do then, is that if the price has caught up with, or rather the 20 me has caught up with the price, i'm looking to buy the breakout above this swing high, so what it can do is that if the price breaks above swing high, you Can look to buy or you can wait for a break and close above this swing high right before you enter the trade, so you know, whichever is your preference, so i don't think there's you know one is better than the other, but for me personally, i'm looking For a break and close above the highs before i get long, so this is a setup on plug power that i'm looking at and the way i'm going to manage this trade is that i'm just going to have a 30 trillion. Stop loss on this on this trade or, if you don't want to go with a percentage, trailing stop loss. You can also go with the chandelier crosstalk, which actually measures the uh which takes into account the volatility of the market.

So let's say: if you go with a five atr, multiple or even a six atr multiple, you can just simply trail a stop loss right using this blue line. So this means right. If the market breaks out higher okay, let's say it breaks out higher. This blue line will go up higher as well, and the way this blue line is being calculated is that it takes the extreme highs over here and then in minus six atr from here to here right, minus six atr, let's see here six atr, and that is Your trailing stop loss, so basically, the multiple that i said earlier over here i set this to six right.

Is six atr from the highs? Give you this blue line. If you want something more conservative right, maybe like a tree atr, you can as well and your blue all right in this case it's a bit messed up because of the uh indicator settings. But let's say we go with four atr. You can see that the blue line will be much more closer to the uh, the price of the market, so depending on how much buffer or how much room you want to give this.

This trade to run right. The wider trailing stop loss will allow you to stay in the trend longer to capture a longer term trend, but the downside to this is that you would risk giving back more open profits, so this is kind of like a a detail, a balance right there. You have to find right whether you're gon na go with you know, 480 or five or six here. But for me personally, i usually go with a five or six atr because i want to you know, write the longer term trend and i don't want to get stopped out.

You know on the short term, pullback and, of course, right. I embrace right the fact that i might have to give back more open profits, and i'm perfectly i'm perfectly fine with that. Okay, so this plug power, a trading setup that i'm looking at this week and as mentioned right, if you want to uh, learn more about the two-day event i mentioned earlier. It's called profitable trading secrets.

You can go to my website over here trading with renter.com webinar. This is a two-day event. I can see that day. One we'll talk about you know simple price action trading, uh using twenty over charts to explain to you more about the price action trading methodology day.

Two. We talked about stock trading over here uh tools that i use trend following system and much more so this event is completely free. Just go to this website. Here click this green button you'll be brought to the zoom registration page just sign up here and you will be uh reserve a ticket right for this event.

Okay, so with that said i'll put the link here again somewhere below, so you can sign up for it. I wish you good luck. Good trading, i will talk to you soon.