Hey hey, what's up my friend, so welcome back to this month's price action analysis, so this is where i identify trading opportunities in the markets and share with you my thought process. You know what i'm looking at, what i'm looking to trade, where am i buying? Why am i selling and stuff like that, so basically to get an insight right into you know how i look at the markets and how i trade it all right. So this is all based on a real-time chart. It's not going to be cherry.

Pick charts like like some of my other trading videos. This is trading in the now right. I could be right. I could be wrong and i'm here to you know just share it all with you in this video.

So if that is something that you would like right, then today's uh video is for you so first thing: first right, let's have a look at pound, new zealand. So from the looks of this chart right uh to traders. Looking at this chart, you might be low. Looking to sell right - hey, rainer, you know, i know what you're thinking right now you are looking to sell at previous resistance that could become support.

Now. I i don't blame you, because if you were to just look at this chart right, that might be your thought process all right, but, as you know, when i trade right, i always use multiple time frame. Analysis i like to understand where i am in the big picture. So if you just go up one time frame higher like the weekly, you would realize that this market is actually still in a long-term uptrend.

It is uh forming a series of higher highs and higher lows, higher lows: lows: higher low higher low and on top of it, it had a bounce of this upward trend line and this area of support over here. So this to me is a key area of value on the chart. Why is that? Because we have this confluence of this upward trend line as well as this area of support over here, which will be more visible, as you see right on the uh, the daily time frame over here right this area of support, okay, this area of support. So now the question is you know? Where do we enter right? That's always the question right where, where do we enter so now that we understand right that the higher time frame is in an uptrend? It has just had a bounce of the area of value.

All right now is where we are looking for an entry trigger to get long. So now ask yourself right: do you want to be buying at this price point so over here? Do you want to be buying here? If you're going to do that right, then, where is the next logical level to set your stop loss? If you ask me right, the nearest level to set your stops has to be below this swing low over here, which is pretty done far away from here. All the way down to here very far, so that's not what i'm looking for. That's not what i want to do so.

What i'll do instead is i'll, go down to a lower time frame like the eight hour time frame and look for bullish trend. Continuation move right to signal to me that this market still wants to go up higher. So what i'll do is, i just simply simply pull out the 20ma okay, you can see that the price is still trading above the 20ma. I want to see a pullback okay, possibly towards the 20ma, forming something like a blue flag pattern.

So at this point the 20ma would have you know caught up with the lows of the flag pattern. So when that happens right right now we have this pullback. So when the price - let's say it, goes up higher and breaks above this highs, i will look to buy a buy, stop order above this highs and my stop loss. So i can just go below the low of the flag pattern.

Let's say the low of the flag pattern is somewhere about here: can go 180 r below it somewhere about here. So now i have a much more logical place to set my stop-loss. I can actually reference the uh low of the flag pattern right to set. My stop loss compared to earlier.

You know referencing from this low over here, so this is where i need the market to uh, give it time right to unfold the price action structure right that i can use it to reference to to set my stop loss. Now. Some of you also might be thinking, but right now you know, aren't you concerned that you might be buying into this area of previous resistance? That could become support and, yes, that's a valid thought right, but here's the thing right, my thought process is this right. Is that i am trading with the higher timeframe trend which, as you've seen earlier on the weekly timeframe, i'm trading in line with the higher timeframe trend.

And if this trend were to continue up higher, then what is likely to happen is that whatever swing highs, right that are in my way like this swing high, this swing high chances are, is that they will break meaning. The price will break out of it right. So, assuming that my hypothesis, my assumption, is correct right, i would expect these levels, or rather i would expect the price right to break out of this level. So this is why i am willing right to just buy in front of this uh this resistance over here.

Right expecting that it would break since i'm actually trading in the direction of the long-term trend. Okay, i hope that makes sense uh moving on next one dollar against the sync right currency, that's near to home. So again, big picture analysis, uh. Let's look at the daily time frame.

You can see that over here this market, we have broke right below this key area of support. Let me just zoom out even further. We can see this area here. Okay, so previously we had a resistance resistance.

Previous resistance become support, tested once twice, and now we have a breakdown. So what is my plan right so again, simple. I trade along the path of least resistance price has broke below key area of support. Price is making a series of lower highs and lower lows.

Lower highs, lower high lower high lower high lower low lower low lower low lower low, so i will be looking to sell okay so now the question is: where do you sell okay? So this is where we establish our area of value. So a couple of ways you can do it first thing: first, you can go up to the eight hour time frame right and look for selling opportunities at this area right where previous resistance could become support. Sorry, previous support could become resistance over here. This would be my first uh area of value to look for selling opportunities uh.

What to look for is very simple. A re-test price will hit up higher right and then make a sudden reversal like closing near the lows of this candle. So it comes up into this area of value and then make a sudden reversal down lower closing near the lows of the candle. What i'll do is then i'll go short on the next candle open, stop loss, or i can just go one atr above this highs.

Right so with the expectations that this market could continue down lower as we've seen right there, the overall trend is towards the downside. That's the first uh thing i'll be looking for, alternatively, on a daily time frame right. If you pull out the 20ma, you can see that uh this market. Another option is that you could form a booth like that.

Sorry, a bare flag pattern: right, like this: okay price hit up higher reflect pattern. 20 hits down lower. So if the price then breaks down breaks below this low, i could look to sell the break of this swing. Low, okay, in anticipation of lower prices to come.

So that is second option right, so couple of ways uh, you could look to short this market for the dollar against this thing and by the way right, whatever i'm sharing over here, this video, it's solely for educational purposes, only so whether you make money, whether you Lose money. It's your responsibility. I believe you can agree with that right. So don't don't come after me.

You know if you lose money right now. I follow your recommendation and i lost money. Come on man, you're grown up you're an adult, take responsibility right. So likewise, right, even if you make a profit, i don't expect you to hand me 50 down to my account because you make a profit okay, so moving on uh next, one bitcoin, all right so bitcoin again right.

Let's look at it from a big picture! Analysis right, let's look at, let's say the weekly time frame. We can use either the daily or the weekly time frame for big picture analysis. That's that's! For me at least so you can see that bitcoin. It has broke out of this area of resistance right.

So, prior to the breakout, we have this a volatility contraction pattern over here and, to be honest right, i was actually expecting a breakdown. Let me explain why, but in this case i'm wrong. So as i mentioned, i do get wrong from time to time right. So you can see that why i was expecting a breakdown is because i noticed a series of lower highs coming into this area of support, so series of lower highs into an area of support, and as as for those of you of you who have been following Me right, you know when we see a descending triangle at resistance right, that's usually a sign of weakness, right telling you that you know the buyers have difficulty pushing up the price higher.

That's why you have this lower high, lower high lower high, but in this case right clearly, i'm proven wrong. The market broke out higher even up above resistance, okay, so my analysis, or rather what i expect the market to do didn't happen right so now, as a trader, you're gon na be fluid, you have to adjust all right according to market conditions and right now, at This point in time the market is spoken right. It wants to hit higher prices broke above this area of resistance, so i am bullish right now on bitcoin, and how am i going to trade this so so again right? What you can look for is for a trading setup, let's say on the four hour time frame or the eight hour time frame either or okay. You can look for a re-test right, the re-test of this previous resistance that could become support.

The price would swing down. Lower do a false break, close bullishly back above support and then go along on the next candle open stop loss. Can you just go one atr below this lows? Possible targets could be at this swing high and this swing high over here. So can you see how this top process flow? First and foremost, we get our buyers on the higher time frame? Second thing we look for is for the price to come to an area of value right where we can trade from the third thing we look is for an entry trigger that you know stops and uh exits right if the market moves in your favor, so pretty Pretty simple stuff: okay, uh and just one last thing right.

Let's talk about goal and the reason why i want to talk about goals that you know. I have seen no comments on twitter. You know where people's barber are looking to buy coal, recommending people to buy gold or even say stuff, like you know, if you're not holding gold right, you are not doing a justification to your own financial well-being, yada yada. So clearly, a lot of bullish sentiments out there for commodities, gold and silver, but as a trader right.

What we're looking for again right is valid trading setups right that we can take advantage of, and if you look at this chart right now right, the daily or even the weekly, you can see that this market has gone parabolic, it's overextended and at this point in Time you don't want to be buying gold, at least not on the weekly time frame. Okay, or rather, let's talk about the daily timeframe since there's a time frame, that's more applicable to to many of you right trade off the daily time frame, because, let's say if you were to buy gold right now at this price point. Where is the logical place to set your stop loss? If you ask me, the nearest price structure is possibly below this swing low or this previous resistance that can support these two levels. So these two levels are where i would say it's logical right to set your stop loss, but the problem with it is that the size of your stop-loss will be pretty done.

Large, like you know, looking at maybe 300 400 gold. So what's the plan now, so what you can do is again right again use the 20ma as a guide, because in this market you can see that goal right seems to be respecting. Uh 20ma tested once twice a false breakdown over here and then it has been constantly above the 20ma. So what i'm looking for now is again right for the 20ma to catch up with the price so going up higher right and at the same time i won't go to take a breather.

I don't want it to continue moving up higher because it will get even more overextended. So i wanted to take a breather: take a pause to breathe in right, breathe in to stop potential energy right for the next move higher, maybe okay. So how would that look like on the chart? So what i'm looking for is for goal to consolidate right, stop moving going higher right consolidated, give it time to rest. So i want gold to consolidate for the next.

You know five to ten candles or maybe the next few candles it starts to consolidate. So at this point right now, i have something that looks like a blue flag pattern: again: a trend, continuation pattern and ideally right on the pullback on the consolidation. I want the range of the candles to be small, like this right. Small nice cute range candles small range candles.

I don't want the pool back right to be so large, like this stuff, with large big bullish candles right, because if you imagine, if the pullback is big and bearish like this size, you can see that you could be gon na be, and i don't want to Be you know, buying the break out of this heist if the pullback here is so steep, i have other plan of action, but not you know, buying the break out of the flag pattern. Okay. So if i'm trading this bull flag pattern, i want it to be nice and small to pull back the range of the pullback, then, if the 20ma catch up with the price, if the price were to break above this highs now i can look to get long. Stop loss and now can reference right.

The low of this flag pattern right to set my stop loss - and one thing to point out, is that understand right that right now at this stage of this gold market, if you look at the weekly time frame, it is overextended. So if i do get an entry trigger to go long, i'm not gon na stay too long in the trade right. You know, try to you know, get like a thousand dollar price point move on go! No! I will trim trill my stop loss tightly, so this means right. Let's say: if it consolidates okay, then the price breaks out all right.

If it breaks out and i buy, i will trail my stop-loss right using the previous payload. So when the price breaks and closed below the previous day, low, i'm out of this gold trade, so i'm just looking to capture that burst of momentum right if it wins, if it starts to, you know, show signs of uh tiredness weakness, i'm out of the trade, Because as you've seen right in this market right now, if you just pull out the 20 on the weekly timeframe, it is way overextended way above right, the 20ma, which is over here this area of value. Okay. So it's quite overextended at this point in time.

I don't want to stay in the trade too long right, because when the pullback comes right, you know it could easily easily retrace. You know 300 or more right back at least to this 20ma over here. So that's my my plan for for gold all right now. If you've enjoyed the market analysis right, then i want to welcome you to join pro trader sage right.

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