Elon Musk has been the lone voice sounding the alarm about the population collapse in developed countries. Many developed countries have fertility rates far below the sustaining rate and thus will suffer from aging populations in the coming decades. This will have a profoundly negative impact on economies and living standards. In this video we go into detail about the causes, effects, and possible solutions to population implosion.
link too CIA database: https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/median-age/country-comparison
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link too CIA database: https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/median-age/country-comparison
Join our free Discord Server: https://discord.gg/VBd6cA4jUt
Check out our second channel WSM Research:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCQUOscigSQWCVG8m-ZC8wiw
#WallStreetMillenial
What's up guys and welcome to wall street millennial today we're talking about an existential threat that humanity faces but gets almost no media attention. We're talking about the impending population collapse that could leave many countries around the world economically ruined, as the global population has increased over 7 billion over the last century. Many people have worried about overpopulation and food shortages. In fact, in many ways the opposite has happened.
Advances in farming technology have made food cheaper and more abundant than any other time in human history. Over the past two decades, hunger has declined to all-time lows even in the least developed regions such as sub-saharan africa, instead of suffering from overpopulation, many developed countries are facing the opposite problem of underpopulation. For example, japan has suffered population declines every year since 2010, despite the fact that life expectancy is increasing. This has resulted in a rapidly aging population with a median age exceeding 48 years in 2021.
The average age in the united states and europe is not quite as high at 38 and 43 years respectively. However, both regions are rapidly aging and they will ultimately suffer the same fate. An aging population represents an existential risk to an economy. As a country ages, retired people make up a larger and larger proportion of the population.
Retired people by definition, do not produce any output. They fund their consumption either with their savings or social security benefits. The output that retirees consume is produced by young people who are still working 9-5 jobs. The proportion of the population engaged in productive labor will diminish, leading to reduced output per capita and living standards.
This will take decades to play out, but we are already starting to see the devastating effects of population collapse in some countries, as its population has aged japan's gdp per capita has declined almost 10 percent since its peak in 1995.. This is despite significant increases in technology. During this period, the median age in the us and other developed countries is also rising steadily year. Over year.
At the current rate, almost all developed countries will be doomed to declining living standards over the next few decades, just like japan, because the threat of the population collapse is still more than a decade away. Politicians in western countries are largely ignoring it. However, failure to acknowledge the problem will not make it disappear. The only notable person who has acknowledged the severity of this issue seems to be elon musk.
We should be concerned about demographic implosion. Why do you say that? So if you look at countries like japan, most of europe, china and you look at the birth rate and a lot of those places is only at about half of the sustaining rates when you have an inverted demographic permit. So if you like, look at the department, you've got aged creation: 60 year olds, 50 year olds, 40 year olds, 20 year olds. You know like sort of a demographic pyramid right um and in some countries it's sort of it's like an upside down permit, so it'll sort of fall over, so it will not will not stand. What we'll actually have in those countries is a very high dependency ratio, where the number of people who are retired is is very high relative to the number of people who are net producers, and so you cannot, the the social safety net will not hold. We didn't evolve for this because we sort of evolved to just always procreate and it wasn't birth, control or anything right, just like how about babies, it's like pop, of course, and like hopefully, some of them was five. That would be. That was like all of you in history until very recently, and now it's uh, you know you've got cases like japan, where adult diapers outsell baby diapers europe's in a similar situation.
China is headed the same way because you know they've had the one child policy and then even though they've relieved, the one child policy, the social norm has become to have an average of one kid. So even when they relieved that requirement, it didn't change you. Could you can imagine like people say well what about um immigration? It's like okay, look, there's one and a half billion people in china. Where is china going to get 700 million new people? Okay, that's like three indonesians.
It's like it doesn't work and if the full gravity of this will it is not well understood, but will become severe sphere issue in the next few decades. Obviously, the cause of the population implosion is that people are not having enough kids to maintain a given level of population. Each couple must have on average, two kids. This is known as the fertility rate.
This map shows the fertility rate by country. Purple countries have fertility rates of less than two and are thus experiencing a population implosion, as you can see, the united states almost all of europe, russia, china and australia - all have fertility rates of less than two. The only countries with high fertility rates are developing countries such as those in africa. The most extreme country is south korea, with a fertility rate of 1, which is half the sustaining rate.
At the current rate, south korea's population will be cut in half in just one generation. Such a dramatic drop in population has never been observed in world history. The closest thing is the black plague in the 1300s, which wiped out up to one third of the hardest hit. Countries for a country's population to be cut in half is uncharted territory.
The economic and social consequences will be unprecedented. Parents in rich countries have higher incomes and thus a greater ability to raise children, so it seems counterintuitive that rich countries have lower fertility rates. There are a couple reasons for this. Firstly, women in developed countries have greater equality and employment opportunities. Thus many of them avoid having children as they would rather focus on their careers. Also in rich countries, kids have greater opportunities for education. Parents want to send their kids to college. Therefore, they only have one or two kids so that they can save up enough money to help them pay for university tuition fees.
On the other hand, in poor countries it is optimal to have as many kids as possible in part, so they can help out on the family farm. Whatever the reason as countries get richer, people decide to have less kids. This is happening across the developed world with very few exceptions. Japan is the most advanced country as far as the aging population.
It's important to look at japan as an example, as most developed countries will end up in a similar situation as japan within the next few decades. Over the post-world war ii era, japan's economy flourished they rapidly adopted advancing technologies and took advantage of the rapidly globalizing market. For automobiles and electronics, however, in 1991, they suffered from a massive stock and real estate crash, which sent the economy into a deep recession. Normally, when countries experience recessions, they recover after a few years and return back to their steady growth rates.
However, this did not happen in japan. They suffered more than 25 years of economic stagnation, with the average japanese citizen in 2021 being worse off than they were in 1995. A large part of this can be explained by the aging population, as the share of retired people becomes greater and greater a larger share of the country's resources will go towards retirement benefits. This leaves less money left over for investment in physical capital or innovation.
The lack of investment causes the economy to stagnate. So what can governments do to stem the population implosion? Unfortunately, there's no easy solution to the problem. They can encourage people to have more kids through tax deductions and other incentives. However, this is easier said than done.
The us department of agriculture estimates that it costs 233 thousand dollars to raise a kid from zero to 18 years old in the u.s. This is not even including cost of a college education or the opportunity cost if one parent quits their job to raise the kid most countries can only afford to offer tax incentives of a few thousand dollars with such hefty costs of raising a child tax incentives are Largely too small to matter developed countries can also try to solve the problem by allowing mass immigration of young people from poorer countries. Immigration is a very controversial political issue, as many people fear that it depresses the wages of the native population because of this most developed countries do not allow immigration to nearly the extent necessary to solve the population problem. Furthermore, for countries like china, there are not enough migrants in the world to fill the population hole, even if they did allow open borders. There are no easy solutions to the population problem. If there were, countries like japan would have already solved it by now. There are deeply rooted reasons for fertility decline in rich countries and they will likely only increase over the next few decades. Given the dire outlook for the developed world, long-term investors should position themselves carefully to limit their risk.
It is possible that the unfavorable supply side effects of the population implosion will result in scarcity of goods and thus price inflation. Thus, it may be prudent to limit your exposure to cash or bonds. These are nominal assets whose value will be eroded by inflation. Real assets like real estate and stocks will give investors better protection from inflation.
The economic consequences of the population bomb may also have dire effects on stock markets. For example, japan's nikkei stock index has suffered 30 years of stagnation, decreasing 25 percent from its peak in 1989. Through today, the cia keeps track of the median population in every country and we've included a link in the description below investors may want to take age data into account when deciding country allocations for globally diversified stock portfolios. Countries with low median ages are obviously less at risk of a population implosion and all else equal can have better potential for economic growth.
Alright guys that wraps it up for this video. What do you think about the population implosion? Let us know your thoughts in the comments section below don't forget to hit that like button and subscribe for future videos. As always. Thank you guys so much for watching and we'll see in the next one wall.
Street millennial signing out.
They only way population decline effects anyone is the wealthy billionaires. This means less consumerism. Wealth will shift to working class.
I think there is a shift in thinking about life overall. I think so many people right now have mental issues and the world has so many problems that the least of our concern is having kids. I think many of us just want to surive, from day to day. Right now its about money, security and entertainment, nothing else matters.
Its embarrassing how poor country trying to create more children so more of them will fall on poverty while global super powers is worried about their population decline
This isn't a catastrophe. The world does not need more people lol. Look how many are going hungry and can't get access to drinking water as it is. Automation and technological advances are going to exceed far past what humans can do when this "catastrophe" takes place. Robots will be doing our jobs much more efficiently and they will do it around the clock, 365 days a year… People need to stop having kids that they cannot support, so they don't put so much strain on the economic system
In order for a society to become fully functional and operational and operational everybody must do their part regardless if they enjoy that or not. If they find themselves unhappy they are welcome to put in Grievance but they must explain why they deserve a different job and show confidence in the job for which they choose. Nobody wants brain surgery from somebody who has never went to medical school. Just like nobody wants a janitor in charge of plumbing.
Telling people not to work today that's helpful and destroying today's economy But once the new system is in place everybody will have to work. Everybody should Work and if they do not like the job that is assigned to them they can put in Grievance and explain as to why. Each grievance would be considered but nobody should be given special priority or favoritism.
You said you wanted something different you said that the system today is not good you designed a system that you believe will be better for all of mankind. I hope that maybe one day we will be able to see that system work. But you could not take one step forward and then 2 step back.
If you do not want a prison and you do not want jail there are some people who are very socially unacceptable and could never become a part of society due to their nature. You would have to be the person that is willing To eliminate the Threat. For the greater good
But when controlling the population you must take a very active roll. There are some people that even though an existence may be the perfect Government and designed society who could never become a part of that society. They're complete refusal to assimilate could jeopardize the entire system altogether
You may not be here today if it was not for somebody else. The population exceeded the breaking point And now there are people who are trying to control that and that is a good thing because if we continue unchecked eventually everyone will starve
You may not think something as simple as pneumonia Could take your life because we have medication and doctors. But suppose the last time you got pneumonia there was no doctor to give you the medication or to help diagnose you. Suppose the person who saw you told you you did not have pneumonia and sent you home.
The problem will soon become A lack of people. He's right about the aging population But there is also the young population too young to care for themselves. And then there is the sick population those who have illnesses that will soon remove them. And then you have crime, senseless killings. Many of us can contribute to our being here today because somebody else did something that made us better so they were able to continue to live.
I heard him say that the problem is not going to be the Overpopulation but that we are going to be in a under population catastrophe. He is right. But the reason we will be in an underpopulation catastrophe is because the population exceeded the breaking point. In other words the real problem began when population was left unchecked.
Elon Musk gets it right with China missing 700 million people. Call me crazy if You will but we will have to bio-engineer people altogether very soon. The very way we will have to geo-engineer our planet for a liveable climate.
Why do we need to have children? Why do we have to protect humanity?
Earth is already unlivable so we don't want our descendants to suffer just like us. So we decided to end the pain with us alone.
The $200k to raise a child includes public education funds. You do not actually dish out that much money out of your own bank account.
one thing the video doesn't discuss is the rate at which technology and automation will grow in this timeline as the population stagnates and/or declines. As technology, robotics, and automation logistics become more efficient, the need for humans to do a lot of these jobs will decrease. Self-driving semi-trucks, cars, manufacturing, shipping, farming, etc… Robots will be able to do all of this 24/7, and much more efficiently than humans can anyway.
I hate how they always blame lower population rate on women education & work opportunities. Without taking about the biggest elephant in the world, birth control! People like having sex, sex leads to children. But with birth control, parents can choose how many children they want to have. Even uneducated women in rule areas with no additional job opportunities (outside the house/husband) Will use birth control to have less children when they have access to birth control. Also there are a population of men who are perfectly happy having sex and no children.
People in the US and Western world can afford more kids than they think. Without kids, my parents would still be considered below middle class, with kids, they were further down. Yet they managed to raise both me and my sister in good conditions and gave us both a good life. Something the West needs to learn is the word SACRIFICE. Kids don't need all these stupid horseback riding and tennis lessons, they can buy their own with a job selling lemonade or raking leaves. No one needs to eat out all the time or order Door Dash. And no one needs a new car every few years. We've had the same vehicle for 16 years!! I was practically raised in that van and am now driving it. Anyone middle class and up in this country can afford 3+ kids no problem. After all, people in MUCH poorer countries afford 6 kids making WAAAY less money.
I don't care for Elon musk, but it's true! I've been talking about this for over forty years! In highschool it totally ticked me off when we learned that replacement birth rate for us was 1.7 babies per woman! That's insane. When the life expectancy increases it still takes two! I've been sure I was right since the seventies.
Japan is a bad example.
Way too many restrictions on foreign investors.
Japan is very nationalistic country and they even have words for mix Japanese citizens, "half-fue".
Miss Japan was half Black and Japanese and she still received alot of racism and criticism from Japanese people.
Japan has only Japanese citizens bar or an only Japanese citizen restaurants in their country. Racism and Segregation still is out in the open.
Japan immigration policy is crazy strict and dangerous and abusing towards immigrants . Its so bad, that Americans would be horrified when they compare the policy with the Trump or Obama administration on immigration.
Why should I have kids? I am much luckier than most, but I can see that my parents have it worse than their parents, and I have it worse than my parents (even without kids). Setting my finances aside, given that trend, the increasing wealth gap, and climate change, bringing another generation of my family into the cycle sits poorly with me. I’d just be setting them up for failure.
7+Billion people. BIG PLANET=BIG PROBLEMS😂. Demographics won’t mean a shit when oil, food, ecosystems, fresh water, lithium, rare earth elements, & other vital commodities run out. 🤷♂️
It'll balance out. Once the property market crashes and wages finally go up for the middle class once workers become scarce, families will once again have the resources to have mom stay home and raise 3 kids.
Ligation, sterilization, abortion, all goes against Mother Nature. To many it is sinful. Birth control pills destroy health. Sex is physical enjoyment, with no conscience, multiple partners, not govern by “religious” rules. Family sanctity and dignity destroyed. The freewheeling modernists smart-alecks arrogants are eventually naturally discarded as they grow old usually living with mental illness at the tail end of their existence mostly living all alone. What we are witnessing now is Karma at work.
People who have lots of children have low intelligence overall and this is a fact. Lots of brainwashed people also follow all the fake religions which also causes them to think having so many children is good. Religion like usual is to blame for the most part. Religion is child abuse on developing brain and causes them to not fully understand reality like thinking gods or an afterlife exist which is very childish to begin with and is fear based thinking. We have half the worlds population if not more who are still mentally children and this is why we have the problems today.
Modern society (especially Western) is incapable of solving this problem. We censored ourselves from scientifically analyze all data and causes and make a logical conclusion on what must be done. So we are doomed that some social disaster in future will solve it for us – through the violence as usual.
The food is becoming unhealthy. It is chemical fertilizers that sustain the population. The quality of life and happiness is decreasing. People are struggling to pay off loans. People are forced to work for low wages when availability of labor is high. The air is polluted, places are crowded. There is scarcity of water in many places, floods, landslides, pandemics and global warming. It is not difficult for one child to look after two parents. It is not economy but profit of big cooperation that suffer from declining population. Take wise choice, have less kids, live an easy life. Don't live to payoff debts.
I won't be getting married and having children. I'm just too ugly and not wanted by females. Every female I approached rejected me. Some even clearly told me that I was too ugly. So, I'm fully aware of how my future will be. I'll even be the last member in my family left. Once I die, my family and bloodline will end for good. I'm happy to be getting wiped out. This world is only for good looking people.