Yeah, it's on so patrick, i hope you're happy. You crashed the market. Finally me: yes, they saw your video about elon, the elon pricing methodology and they all realized. It's nice.

You know he tweeted about dogecoin dogecoin moved up. He mentioned mcdonald's and mcdonald's, didn't move up, but i feel that mcdonald's just doesn't have enough ma'am. You know meme meme, yeah, ma'am meme. I i i i keep turning it into a french word.

You know, you think the. I would think that you probably at this point, are extremely happy with the markets going back to sanity, but are you happy now that valuations matter and price to earnings matter and like no like, i, i just think it's all interest i'll, tell you what i do Like when markets get interesting, because i think that if you're sort of good at what you do, you can deal well with a a challenging and exciting market. It's kind of you know if everything just goes up slowly sideways. You know there's very little value for you to add, like i think one of the most um frustrating markets for me was sort of 2000 and kind of five through 2000 and what would have been around 2006 because the market, like s ps, would move like four Points range in a day you know, and i look at it and you know you fall asleep.

Looking at the market, then of course 0708. You know there's a bit of excitement. Once again. You know you know 10 pound day that wakes people up.

You think you think that this is going to scare a lot of people out on the market for the the new newly joined ones for the past year. I think it'll wake some people up and i i don't mean that in a bad way. You know, because you, you can sort of sound like a jerk if you're sort of entertained by a difficult market and that that's not really how i feel, but but in a funny, actually there's a really uh. There's a guy jack schweiger, who wrote all those market wizards books, and he tweeted something a couple of days ago that i thought was a really good point where he sort of said that a sell-off that's quickly bought is not um.

It doesn't do anything sort of good for the market. If you know what i mean, because it doesn't, it doesn't sort of shake people out or wake anyone up and in a way, you sort of need a real sell-off every once in a while. For for things to function correctly, for risk to be priced appropriately and to you know, if you think about it, if the market just went up in a linear manner like as you'd almost be told that the emh uh would tell you, you know that it sort Of discounts the future and should have next to no volatility. Well, then uh, then we could all get rich.

We could, you know, leave her into the s ps and go to sleep and it would it it would rise. Uh we'd all get rich, you know, but the truth is um. You know, markets need to shake around a little bit and they need to adjust and - and it's just the way it's always been, and it always will be. You know, like i see some people panicking right now and i kind of think like you must be new to this, because i i look at this like a friend of mine, the other day said like isn't this an insane market and i was like it's not Like even even like march of 2020, bit of a crazy market, you know you go back a decade before the very crazy markets, but you know this is like people have been lulled a little bit into.

You know that that you just have to buy the craziest thing and it goes up the most, and you know that that can't be like sort of the long run way things work in markets. It's it's not how things are they're asking a futures guy if he thinks it's a crazy market like it's like asking somebody who came back from afghanistan if he thinks that you know it's dangerous to walk down the street man came back from afghanistan, bro well i'll. Give you an example: if we look at the market right now like because there's a lot of people uh, you know, in fact i saw very annoying, like you know, there's a certain type of news that likes to sort of shout out. This is the worst one week in in the last 12.

You know they always kind of find. Like a thing that says, this is either the worst or the best, and if we um you know, if we look at the current market, let's look at 50 years of market data. Okay and monthly data and you'll see that there have been 25 months that have been way worse than this month, right so basically, 25 months out of 50 years. It means that once every two years you should expect a month like this or significantly worse now, the worst one over.

That period was october 1987, uh, where we saw the 1987 crash right um terrible month, but a lot of people then go. Oh, it must have been an awful year. 1987 wasn't up here, you know it's an up year, because markets go up and down and it it went more up than down. Even in the the year of the, i guess, the biggest crash in recent history.

You know, i think uh 20, the second half of 2022 is gon na, be it's gon na, be like a disco party in 1975, full of full of happiness and free love. It's gon na be insane. Well, it's interesting. I you know there was a really good.

I wish i could think of the name of the guy, there's a really good article. I read, i think his name is like peter atwater or something like that wrote a really good piece, the other day on sort of what we might be seeing in the markets and he he argued that it's not just a simple idea of rates go up. Um growth stocks go down and there is an argument. You know you - and i have discussed this in the past.

The idea that the further out in the future earnings are the less they become worth like that. It's it's not a mispricing either. It makes sense if rates go up. The distant earnings are worth less because there's other stuff, you can do with your money, but he argued that you know that's part of what we're seeing, but he argued as well that there are just different market environments and there there are market environments when, if things Have been very calm for a long time or in fact not even come, but just very bullish and very risk on for a while.

You end up with a situation where almost the most abstract ideas do the best, and he gave the example of like nfts and things like that right where you you take like you know, right a month or two ago you could say well a hyperlink to a A jpeg of a monkey is worth a hundred grand right and that made sense to a certain number of people. Um, that's a very abstract thing, like it's very difficult to to sort of get your head or like. How do you value that, like it's not necessarily an artwork, you know, we don't know what it is exactly and there's lots of companies as well that we can look at and so to say that there's abstraction or confusion in there in their earnings or in their Path to profitability or whatever it might be, and then, if we look at um other types of companies, we'll say like a company like exxon mobil, there's nothing confusing, they take oil, they pump it out the ground, they clean it up a bit and they pump it Into your car, it's very understandable and there's times when people like when things are going really well and when things get maybe a bit frothy people get. People are happy to put their money into things that they don't really understand, but they think might make them rich.

While the more it's sort of you know the more punches they take, the more they kind of say you know they kind of they're. Looking for the you know, the the lifeboat or whatever and the lifeboat is maybe something that you can definitely understand, and so the the question is: are we rotating into that market like from sort of a hopes and dreams market to a market of um? You know sort of earthier companies that are that are easier to understand. It's a you're, a clone tyson fury once said that uh he was doing an interview before the his latest fight and it was like well that's great that he has a game plan, but the minute i punch him in the face that game plan is going to Go away and he's going to have to play defense, it's pretty much the same thing, that's everyone, and actually it's kind of why i advocate to a lot of people like most people should just make long-term investments, because that's kind of the best use of their their Time and it it should grind out a decent return for them, but the more active you want to be in markets. I almost think that whenever you buy or sell - or you know do something in the market write down like you know, i used to actually have a notepad next to my my desk and i would write down what i did.

What i was thinking of when i did it and what my plans were like when i would get out and when, when i would uh you know either take a profit or or uh. You know choke down a laugh and if you do that, you're you're less likely to to get terrified because people i remember like back back in like kind of the craziest parts of our weight around, that it was right. But it was actually before the lehman meltdown. But markets were going insane and there were two young guys that i worked with on the options trading desk at one of the banks and the market just started tanking and the p l.

You know you kind of have to update, but they had like complex p. L, they would take a few minutes for it to recalculate and the the screens just were getting redder and redder and eventually like eventually one of them just leaned over into his waste paper basket and vomited. You know it's just like the worst thing. You know he was like six months into the job and he kind of was told.

You know this was a good career. This was how he'd get rich and he's looking at the guys. Next to him, who had just bought ferraris with their bonus and he's given a you know, a a line to trade, and it's just going through the floor. You know and um.

You know once in a while. The market will make you want to vomit into a bin. It's it's good to have one next to your desk. You know.

Oh, that's, a that's a very visual way of describing it. I've seen crazier stuff on trading floors. Actually, i've seen uh a true story. Um! Oh you've got her come on, i'm trying to figure out if i can tell the story or not, can the people in the chat chime in as to whether tom should tell this or not okay, i'll tell this story so, okay, so you remember the k.

The famous case of uh raj ramatratra, whatever the name is so the place where i was working with like many other places. So we can't you, i don't know if i told you which, if not i'll, tell you, i know which bank you work, okay, but so many others had money with raj. So we also had money with raj and when it exploded - and you know we are sitting on the floor and there's always tvs on the floor. And then you see his face on the tv with the handcuffs walking the purple.

You know yeah and then like everybody's silent, because everybody knew we had a lot of money with him yeah it's like didn't. We take him for lunch yesterday. So the first thing i heard silence complete silence, and then i hear just out of the out of the back of the room where the the the director rooms are out of the back just complete shattering. It's like mother, scott.

You had lunch with him. A few days ago you and they're like like you're, complete rant by the by by by this, your complete rant of like you, mother, whatever had lunch with them, just you could have you, he did you didn't get any out out it. We could have pulled the money, the whole story, and basically i just found it like. I was sitting there and i was looking at this implosion and i was like did these gave that stupid a lot of money, and now some other poor stupid will have to pay for that, and they'll still take their bonuses.

Yes, that this is an industry. I want to be in perfect industry for me: no accountability, nothing, he. He had also been in trouble for insider trading, like maybe a decade earlier. I think, even with the same woman, um feeding him because he wrote a book claiming he's innocent patrick, you know the mobiles the burner mobiles, he wrote a book he's he's still claiming his innocence.

Oh, i remember that vividly, but the next day, the next day, literally the next day they were playing like insanely, expensive, practical jokes on each other, like they had the toilet lowered to make fun of the cfos, which was short they put his name on the on The lower toilet, like they quickly forgot because it's somebody else's problem. You know the joke like yeah, that that's that's people don't realize how the financial industry is just insane. You know i just love as well the expense of like within a commercial office, building bringing in like uh plumbers and like plumbers, and everything and they'll there'll be there'll, be a guy who's in charge of plumbing in the building kind of going. Where did this come from and they'll expense it because it's like yeah, so i have a question from the chat from patrick.

His name is patrick also how many shares of tesla. You have end of your pr price tag. You ask, i don't think patrick will tell you because he doesn't give a yeah. He doesn't give a about tesla uh.

If you ask me, by the way, like people who grumble about tesla tesla is doing fine. If you look at the chart um it's up. I think it's up about four percent over the last year and i would say what did you expect of a car company? You know it's a car company, oh you're, getting it's not a crazy car company like ford, that's up 75! That makes no sense, but you know so it's a sensible manufacturing company and that's what you'd expect. I think uh.

I think, within the next two years, they'll hit three million vehicles uh within that time frame. I think we're going to find out more about the viability and sustainability of their commercial energy storage business. That's i'm really curious to find out about that um and i also think within the next three to five years. It's gone, the 5x itself and people think i'm crazy because the a five trillion dollar company - okay, see you in five years, let's find out if they can pull off the the energy business if they can take over the energy business and and and kind of pivot, Their way into what are they, because i actually don't know like what are they doing in in the energy space? Like you mean they already have uh? No, they already have they already kind of established themselves.

As as leader in in large-scale energy storage solutions like batteries and the question is, can it can they create some sort of a utilitarian aspect of it for not only for a b2b business but as far as a solution like a solution for individuals, they started to? Do this, while back and they stopped because they couldn't sell enough of they couldn't make enough of them. They had a product called the powerwall yeah yeah, so the powerwall was they were selling like crazy and then they had to basically say well we're not selling them. Unless you buy the solar panels, because basically they didn't have enough uh, there was a chip shortage and they diverted everything to the to the other business yeah, so that it's it's it's speculative, but i think it's a it's a good bet. If you're talking about like uranium instead, that's what you need! There's two uranium uranium, one, it's green energy and two you get to tell people that you own uranium uranium, the only guy who the only guy who i would ever buy uranium from is doc brown.

Oh wait was it plutonium or uranium that got him killed? You've been counting on now. I'm sorry, there's another question for you from brian p: ask patrick if he thinks that the market is crashing or correcting. Like the media says, i mean it's coming down, but you know a lot of the stuff. That's coming down is stuff.

That went up a lot. You know like even we look at tesla right, yep tesla went up. What did it do like? It was kind of flat for six months. Last year, then, it went up like 70 percent in a very short period and now it's kind of come off a little bit and in truth, when it went up that huge amount, there wasn't any huge news like there was sort of the the.

What do you call it hurt story which wasn't really a story like it didn't even elon come out said that doesn't move the needle first we're sold out anyhow, you know so i mean the truth is if you're an in like look at look at the longer Charts of these things and it doesn't look so bad. You know everyone looks at like the one week chart and they say the world is ending. You know, can you see what i'm sharing on the screen or you're? Not you don't have access to that. That is yeah the five year, the five year tesla chat.

So you can see you know you pull out those big stop: uh spikes, which are kind of the real hype moments in tesla um. You know it's you shouldn't expect you shouldn't like it's great. If you own a stock that goes up 70 in in a couple of weeks, but you know if, if you're a long-term investor, that's not your expectation. You know and there's look at this number patrick 1800 in five years.

It's not a bad return on your money. Yeah uh. I want to give a shout out also to alex, i, i hope, our butcher. If anyone can pronounce that it should be you.

No, that's not russian! Oh no love! It's! I don't think it's russian sorry alex i'm a dumbass. Thank you for the donation. Thank you so much for the compliments he's saying cheers to both of you learned a lot from you both, oh i'm, assuming i could pronounce your name easily if i wanted to, but i just choose not exactly shout out to uh alex uh. So there's a another one of these hi patricks.

How crazy are the margin calls right now? Can you explain how is liquidity provider in option markets? I have a hard time understanding it versus asset marker. Oh well, okay, two questions. One margin calls like there's always margin calls in a big sell-off, i'm not really hearing about like much on the institutional side. I think there's an interesting thing in that over the last year year and a half there've been a lot of like retailers started using margin.

They've started trading options that sort of thing, and you know i worry - that a lot of people once again like in a calm market. This stuff feels fine and then then you you get a punch in the face. You know so um you know there. There will be margin, calls uh, but but i i once again, i don't think this is such a shocking market.

Like i mean i've seen i don't know even like two years ago. It was way worse back at the end of 2018 way. Worse. You know like this is this: is a normal sell-off like a normal sort of calming moment in the market, um they're asking about liquidity providers in options? Well, basically, that's kind of about option, market makers and uh.

You know basically what they do is you know, they'll they'll, either act as a middleman, where they buy an option from one person and sell it to you or they'll, just sell you an option and and uh delta had like dynamically hedged where they they hedge out Their greeks uh once again like when they do that they'll, be you know, they'll try and reduce overall their their risk exposures, but you know they might be impacted by uh. You know changes in volatility and things like that. But once again these guys are they're. Usually pretty smart they're usually pretty hedged because they basically make their money by selling the option to you sort of too expensive and then, if they hedge it all out, the hedging basically involves uh sort of creating a synthetic option.

In the background, through their trading of the underlying stock and any other risk exposures, they might have, and so usually they've largely locked in their profits and that sort of thing it's uh. You know - i imagine you know most of these guys as well, like the the guy sitting on the big vol desks at the various investment banks and market makers they've been at this for a while, like they don't give you that job after you know a three-month Training period you know, and they'll they'll have been prepared for this, like in truth, those guys kind of love volatility more than anyone else. So there's another question from patrick, hey, patrick i have about ten percent of my portfolio in tesla, and my end-of-year target for tesla is fifteen hundred dollars. If that helps you, but i'm just a guy in the sweater on the internet.

I don't know what the i'm doing, don't don't take any advice from me. I do want to share with you uh patrick, that's a relevant patrick boyle. The the i saw a clip today on tech talk and the i it made me. It made me connect with how a volunteer investor feels today and i tweeted about it and it seems to have touched a lot of people there's like 600 people who liked it, and i want to show you the clip patrick.

So this is what a volunteer investor feels like wait. Wait for it. This is. I was like this is literally what i went through in the past month.

Bro. Imagine this little cardboard is the price trying to push this piece of up the hill. Also wait. There's one more, i want to show you uh this: isn't it the only one? There was also this one, which i feel really here's share price reflects the volunteer share price over the past month.

Now this is kathy wooden volunteer company, um yeah. I mean once again. No, you look at poland here. It went public what like a year and a quarter ago, or something like that, yeah you're in a bit more now, like 13 or something so well.

I think i don't know yeah yeah, it's really making a havoc. It's not! It's! Not appalling, you know like it's. Obviously you know if you bought it a month ago. It looks it looks bad, but you know it's uh.

I don't know things go up, things go down, you know well, but patrick stonks only go up. What are you talking about? You don't understand the stock market, that's the problem, bro! Well, actually, even an interesting thing like if we look the i actually, i wanted to tell you an interesting story, so i was on you know, there's that um that thing on twitter, where it's like twitter, but people talk, um, clubhouse, twitter and isn't it dead? Um did it die already? No well, no clubhouse might be, but you know there's a version of it on twitter, where, where oh yeah yeah yeah, and so i i was in one of those, maybe a couple of days ago, when the market was selling off a bit. And there were all these conversation all these people and they were in like kind of quite a panic, and you know one one guy said like well, you know that the market is only down we'll say at the time it was down about five percent year. To date, and this other guy kind of went well who owns the s, p 500, everyone owns and he listed off.

Like kind of the you know, sort of arc and uh. You know tesla and a few few other kind of really volatile tech names, and but he didn't like he wasn't joking. He was dead serious, like this guy kind of thought like there is no one in the world who owns the s p 500 index, like everyone, only owns these five stocks, and if you look, if you look actually at the performance of the s p over the Last, like kind of since the credit crunch, it's sort of been this fang store and you can add a few other stocks into the into the fang thing. But there's been about a dozen kind of uh.

You know tech type stocks that that have lifted the whole index right. But if you look most of the index, components have not done much in 10 years. You know, and if you look at things like the euro stocks index, like the euro stocks index, is sort of flat since around 1995.. You know what i mean.

It's barely done anything, and you know that there's there's this thing where everyone is sort of laser like focused on sort of a portfolio of five or six stocks. But the truth is: there's a huge stock market out there and we'll we'll say. Even if we want to talk about the current panic right now like there was a good piece i was written earlier today and then the guy pointed out that if you look at cds spreads like basically, if you look at the spread of junk bonds, like the Additional yields you'll get on a junk bond over a treasury uh. You know year to date you know it had a bit of a sell-off and it's about back to even meaning that you know bond investors are not panicking in this current environment.

You know they're still as happy with sort of uh. What can i say, low quality credit as they were uh three or four weeks ago. You know so it's it's very much like uh. You know the sell-off does feel uh.

You know i can see how certain people are really kind of get feeling the brunt of it, but it's actually very concentrated and it's not necessarily the broad market and i would say to people like i've, been kind of there's a lot of people. Who've come to me over the last year and they've sort of said. You know the market is so crazy that i don't want to invest and and the problem with that, then is like kind of you know. Then, when it sells off, you don't want to invest either, because you know everyone kind of feels more comfortable uh, you know sort of getting in a warm bath and an icy cold one.

You know that's a market, that's just sold off, and so the question is kind of. When will you invest and - and i've often said to those people like if you're afraid that the market is overvalued, then just invest in the market, less the sectors that you think are overvalued because people probably still should have you know stock exposure in in their investments, Because it's kind of a good place to be look, the dow is doing fine. Actually, some of the some of the stocks that are still like industrials the financial sector is doing fine. I think uh, the oil sector is killing it over the last yeah energy is going berserk.

It takes on it's because i mean you know you look in europe. They don't have oil and gas. You know you look at energy prices, they're going through the roof. Also defense right, like if you think what what's the big geopolitical event we'll skip russia for the moment.

What else has been going on? Why do we need to skip right? We can talk about russia, but we do but but firstly, china a couple of months ago. They they um, you know they. They tested these two hypersonic weapons. Do you know what a hypersonic weapon is? It sounds like something that comes out of my grandpa's ass.

I was going to say this to the u.s government right. So that's the problem, but they've tested a weapon from the future. We'll call it and if you look at the stock market - and you kind of say like what's likely to happen like, why are the u.s government going to kind of go wow that was cool or are they going to do something, so they might try and develop Their own right! Well, we've we come from europe if you can include russia and europe, which is a stretch like when you're looking from the outside. In i mean the u.s have never had a problem spending on defense, even if they, even if they didn't, have a hypersonic challenge to catch up to but yeah no, i mean it's an interesting thing because you know, if you look at the markets, there's lots of Stuff going on that could draw your interest and it doesn't have to be like netflix, it's not always netflix or or um stationary bikes or you know whatever it might be.

You know you know. I had to post an apology on my community feed about what i like. No so i posted an apology and make it i had to take down the video. I made a whole analysis genius analysis.

A peloton is going to transform the world this new working out from home in society. That's going to morph like blah blah blah blah blah blah and all that collapsed, like a house of cards now and like now that you're seeing them reduced to their basically stationary bike with an ipad. I was like wow. I was an idiot bro, so i had to post an apology.

I got peloton wrong and it was so funny uh. So people were commenting on my post, basically saying hey screenshot this forever, so you have evidence that i up tom is trying to hide these tracks. It's a you you're commenting on the post, where i just told you that i mean i'm yeah. Why did you pull the video? Is it just? You don't want people watching? I don't want people investing in peloton based on that video, but i made like a huge post, basically saying: hey, i up screenshot this um, but with peloton it was a simple uh.

I i had this theory where i was. I saw what uh kova did to the work environment and working culture, how it changed forever, and i was like it's going to do the same thing across the board to everything, culture, fitness blah, blah blah. What i did not account for is that number one. It changed the workplace because people don't want to go to work.

People want to go out, work out and watch concerts and do outside, and i was like, oh you're, an idiot. The only thing it worked and that's why i was people are in the gyms. The gyms are packed and peloton is back and i up, i didn't understand, even i think the like someone now i i paid no attention to peloton like on the way up or down, but someone said to me: they pointed out that i forget the the monthly Subscription on peloton is like was it 30 or 60 pounds? I think it's 20 pounds 20 pounds which is roughly the cost of a gym membership. You know and then you have to buy like the thousand dollar bike as well and so um.

You know the product is good, i mean the bike itself is phenomenal. It's it's. It's high end and everything blah blah, but my theory was that they'll basically give it away for free at some point and just make their money on the sas on the recurring revenue from the software. I thought that's how it's going to work wait.

Did i just lose patrick? Can anybody see patrick or did i go hello, hello, hello, oh, i think did patrick. Did i lose you if anybody's in the chat that can hear me, please let me know everything froze hello, hello, just patrick froze right. If you see me type 2 in the chat, if you, if, if you cannot see me, don't type anything type 2, if you can see me, i think it's okay, good! So i'll finish, my there's a! I want to answer real, quick there's a super chat before patrick comes back. I think patrick has been assassinated by peloton uh, who benefits from classifying stock as meme and will that category soon be a fad seems if the american market or the media is trying hard to force certain stocks into meme territory, i.e palantir.

So i don't think, there's a conspiracy theory behind palantir being classified as a meme stock. I've seen it before in places like cnbc. I just think it stems from lack of understanding. I think a lot of these reporters.

They don't understand and because palantir was a big part of the initial push. Remember valentine went to the into the 40s so that that came from reddit from the wall street best community and a lot of people wrote it up. So i think that's why you see a lot of a meme status attached to it, but i don't think there's like a conspiratorial issue behind it, patrick you're, back uh. So basically i was telling you that with peloton, i had a theory where i i thought to myself.

They're gon na make they're gon na give away the hardware to sell the cartridges to sell the yeah and i was like and if people do work out at home, it's going to be epic. But again i discounted people's desire to go outside and interact with other human beings despite so it was my mistake. It's kind of, i guess also, if you think in almost the more people are working at home, probably the greater their urge might be to to go out like in you know, in a post-pandemic environment. Somebody told me yesterday, patrick when i was explaining how i up about peloton is like tom.

It's not like people don't want to be around other people, they don't want to be around, which means they don't want to go to work. They do want to go and work out and enjoy life outside so uh speaking of uh macroeconomics in china and whatnot. So we can. Basically, i have a theory like you mentioned earlier energy, and i have a theory like why i think the next, the the the two sectors that are going to do really well in the next in the next six months.

While we have this inflationary push are going to be real estate. Obviously that's an easy one, but energy and and banks specifically those two and i have a theory about this yeah, so energy and banks. Why energy in banks? So if you look at it right from again layman economist here, i'm not a jeremy siegel, okay, just a theory, so i have this theory. So inflation is basically a cluster.

It's like you know how you buy an apartment from somebody and you can't get access until they get access to their apartment and yeah and so forth, and so so, if there's one link in the chain, it can hold up the entire, like, like five six different Houses will be delayed so the same thing with inflation. So if prices of of of of raw materials goes up, everybody in the chain suffers and eventually the price gets rolled over to the end customer, but the only ones who will not suffer because some of it gets absorbed along the line. But the brunt of it is getting absorbed by the customer. Obviously, the only ones who don't suffer is people who control these raw materials and the essential these.

The the most core raw material of ever is energy. Everything starts with energy. You can do jack. Ask the japanese why they lost the war for example or started to i mean why china is basically making all these moves.

Energy, independent energy is everything yeah, so on on the flip side, i think banks are pretty much at this point sitting like oh yeah, higher interest. It's pretty much their business lending out their they'll borrow the land out. They make money on the gap and the gap gets widened, so interest rates means they control the money they control. The energy and those two sectors are gon na really well.

Everybody else will will be basically shellacked for a while it's kind of interesting. I i think, there's just there's a combination of it would appear, there's a general shortage of energy. You know in china, they've got a problem in europe. There's a problem.

The there's kind of this push towards sort of greener energy, but it doesn't seem to be filling the gap like an example would be the germany sort of after the fukushima meltdown in 2011, germany decided they were getting rid of their nuclear plants. I think i forget they might have had six of them. They closed three at the end of the year and they they plan to close the next three at the end of this year, and you know the idea is that it's a green transition, but it's not awfully obvious that that they have uh. You know a good source of energy to replace these nuclear plants um.

You know, i i think in you look in the united states. You know there was this. There was during the pandemic. You know there was this collapse in demand for oil and gas.

Basically, you know, planes stopped flying people stopped commuting to work collapse, but then you know they shut down a lot of the oil wells. It takes some time to reopen them and you look in like the united states was uh. You know an energy export or pre-pandemic, and now they sort of haven't, kicked things off again and basically the energy companies have sort of been hammered over the last little while they're uh. You know the green people are very angry at them and they kind of say.

We need to absolutely replace this with solar panels and wind and whatever, but that stuff hasn't come online yet, and these guys are not really fully turning on the top of oil because they don't want to sort of turn it on and instantly get hammered again. So, actually, i think they are the rolex, slash the beers, it's the rolexes and the beers and the it's the same business model. They they control the knob yeah they can make as much of it as they want, but they've been. They have been punished for turning it on and even like the whole situation.

Like we'll say the russia ukraine situation is. You know europe are sort of saying that they, you know they're sort of frowning upon uh what's going on, but of course you know all of their energy comes from russia right, so they they can only they can't. You know there's this argument that they'll say we. We we won't, we won't turn on your pipeline and it's like well you're.

On the other end of that pipeline. You know it's not a you know the the truth is that there is uh, you know, there's there's energy prices are rising and they possibly will continue to. You know it's uh. That seems probable to me.

I think the russian ukrainian conflict is is it's it's so amusing to me how everybody misses the point, the whole every single conflict we had with russia - and i don't i like if there's a war tomorrow, us against russia, i'm fighting against russia. So so, let's get this thing clear, so i'm not like you know them um. I don't consider it my home, like i'm russian, by culture, but i mean this version of russia ain't mine, so they can go now. Tell me what what what do you think the likely outcomes are like? Do you think, there's a diplomatic end to this? Oh, i don't think they'll go to war.

It's just a bunch of like hold me hold me. You know it's it's just it's politically maneuvering yeah! Not attention they're trying to leverage a better deal. I think so that's an interesting one. I i have a friend a very smart guy in the em space and he's pointed out how cheap russian stocks are right now you know, there's i forget what the ticker they're worse than chinese stock.

Well, it's like you know. What's the etf or u.s, or something like that, i i kind of think that if there was a solution like if, if peace was sort of negotiated in the next week, that thing would take off. But you know the question is: will will tensions heighten before you know? What will happen? We don't know, i don't think it's going to be a war, you never know with putin, but the whole idea with putin he's just basically trying to strong arm every time. I don't know it's like the relics of the cold war every time.

Every time somebody gets snubbed out of nato, they be, they become very agitated. Oh you're, not letting me in. Oh turkey did the same thing. Remember what happened to turkey when you didn't let them in so they're like okay, i'm not in then i'm not going to have you sitting on my border.

So basically, russia's main issue is like having nato in their backyard. They don't want that. That's that's the main thing plus they have issues with ukraine in general, but not anything. That's going to trigger like an actual war war and there's a huge difference between invading into ukraine and and with crimea.

Crimea was it's debatable. I mean a lot of russians lived there, it's not as simple as as people would think, but i mean i don't see an actual like war with tanks and like it's just not gon na happen, don't see it he's basically they're gon na cave, they're, gon na Agree not to let ukraine and nato, which is meaningless, who gives a if ukraine is a nato and it's going to blow over yeah? In any case, i think putin has much more elegant ways of meddling in whatever is going on in ukraine without rolling tanks. All over you understand what i'm saying yeah so, plus nobody from the u.s or europe side ever wants to get involved in the military contract, for especially for a for a country that nobody cares about. Nobody cares about you! It's like you know it's! It's kind of nuclear powers involved, you know for like the first time.

You know it. It's not a it's, not a pretty situation, if some, if it doesn't end diplomatically yeah new ukraine's nuclear missiles, are probably like more dusty than my grandpa's porn collection. They haven't opened. It up since the 1990s that don't even work, probably like so it's like you know, like the dust comes up.

Oh man, there's a comet in the chat tom. Do you think putin will go out with a bang? Why do you think he's going out? Man he's not going anywhere because i think he wants to build a gorbachev and live a long life with his. No, i don't think he's ever quitting my guy, you don't understand putin, bro, he's gorbachev was an opportunist and a good one. Actually, a horrible strategist putin is the opposite, he's an ideologist, ideologist and a very good strategist, and he knows that he his existence makes no sense.

If he's not controlling everything he's the most centralistic controlling person like is the polar opposite than gorbachev. He ain't going nowhere. The only there's not going to be any succession planned he's never leaving ever ever ever he's going to at least all of us we're all going to be dead, he's still going to be well. Keith richards will still be around he's going to invent mind melting transferring technology to take the new body.

I swear. I kid you not bro you there's a g, there's a video game, er that it's so funny like. I have a viewership status from our from our chat and the youtube just dropped our viewership to one from like 1500 for a second, it's something i i i think it was putin basically tell me, be careful uh. So i do want to talk to you about.

What's going on in turkey, nobody stop. I talked a little bit about it because uh, i think it's a fascinating case of what happens when you don't give a about inflation and how it comes back to python death, but you've made a whole like you rode that thing into the sunset like the turkey. The biggest video i think i've ever had on my channel. Can you can you tell us what the hell is going on with turkey? I know a lot of people don't give a but trust me if you live in the western world.

You want to hear because this is like a preview of what you're about to live through if well, sort of a fascinating situation. You know the the turkish economy has has not been doing well and basically, erdogan. You know turkey sort of had a long history of problems with inflation and so on, like for for a very long time, they kind of mod modernized. The economy in i don't know - maybe around 2002 or so they sort of brought in an independent, sensible, uh central bank.

They uh, you know, increased interest rates, got inflation under control, and then they had this sort of this great period of of boom. You know a real estate boom that was kind of reasonable, huge tourism boom uh exports. You know it's a great country for like uh, manufacturing and all sorts of things. You know um i've been to turkey multiple times with my family, yeah yeah, i don't know like russians, really love turkey.

It's a it's a it's a hot spot for for vacations, because i also lived on on the on the side of russia, that's literally across turkey. So my my town was on on the shore of the black sea yeah. It's literally like a it's like going to your backyard. We used to go to turkey all the time.

I see yeah, it's it's they. They basically had a very good economy for a while, but then got into a slight malinvestment problem, a bit like china, like kind of too much spending on kind of infrastructure and a real estate bubble. You know, so you have this big real estate bubble. They built way more houses that are needed.

The idea is almost that they were going to be like a dubai type place. You know where people were going to you know. The idea was that rich arabs would come and and uh you know - want to live in turkey that didn't really work out, but then um, you know, erdogan basically decided. You know he's kind of uh, the the type of leader that wants to control all of the levers, and so once again he kind of uh you know pushed the center.

I think this they've been through. I know like a number of different central bankers. A number of different, the head of the head department of finance was his son-in-law for a while, like you know, you kind of really taking control of everything, and he decided that the idea would be to cut interest rates to sort of just grow. Your way out of things you know, and so you just wanted to keep interest rates low.

This would cause some sort of a boom and uh and that that could occur before the the next uh election. And so basically you know you, you have your interest rates way too low. You end up with inflation and, of course the turkish people are well used to you know: they've lived with decades of high inflation and the economy is largely dollarized, so turkish people all just either had or moved their money into us dollars, and they can use that As a medium of exchange, but basically it's hard to say whether he believes this or not, you know he he kind of reaches out and sort of claims that it's kind of um sort of uh. You know his muslim faith.

That means that interest rates should be low, that you know it's kind of immoral to to charge high interest rates and so he's kind of kept interest rates low. This has caused the economy, to you, know just hyperinflation, like 20 inflation forecaster for 30 going forward. So it's kind of it's a fascinating. It's kind of a long story like if people are interested there it it's kind of my biggest video on my channel, but then um.

How many views do you have in that video? I think it's like. Maybe six seven hundred thousand, which for me i know everyone else, has huge views but like before the i think my number one video is the charles ponzi video, but the turkish one, like almost did in a month what that took sort of three years to do. You know when you made that turkey video did you i'm sorry to interrupt you, but i just wondering like did you think this is going to be like a video i'm doing for myself nobody's going to watch it, but i'm still going to do it. That's kind of i kind of slightly felt that there was a puzzle like that people kind of that people know there's something going on and a bit like the evergreen stuff, where i think a lot of people felt there's something going on and it hasn't been explained.

So i kind of thought: well, i can run through that, but in truth, like i kind of hoped for a hundred thousand views on it, you know which you know for me would be a good video um. I was surprised how how well it did you know, but i know youtube's like that, like you'll you'll put a ton of work into something and no one will watch it and then you'll bang out some video and it's the biggest thing. You know, um, you think uh erdogan will lose. I think he loses uh like he's been holding on to power for so long over there in turkey is it's a totalitarian regime, and i know - and i know to evaluate them - i know to spot them, but it seems that this is the thing that's going to Get him inflation is going to get him well in in making my piece on turkey, i tried to speak to a couple of turkish economists and that sort of thing, and i had a few contacts in the country and people just said to me.

No can't talk to you because they'll round me up and put me in prison. You know, and i kind of thought she's like it seems like an overreaction called someone else same thing or like people just wouldn't return. My calls and things like that and it's almost the more people didn't want to talk to me the more interesting i i thought it was it's funny. Then, in the comments of my videos, people say: that's nonsense.

You know everyone is happy to talk about this, but equally um. I was flying recently and and uh. You know, as i had the option of a stopover in in turkey. You know, and i called a turkish friend of mine and i said, is it all right for me to stop over in turkey and he said i wouldn't stop in turkey after you made that video well there's in the chat right now we have my friend greg.

I just highlighted this comment. He can tell you a very crazy story. There's a card there's a couple that like uh from his country, that all went over there and they they took a picture with the palace of uh of erdogan in the back, and they put them in jail for like two weeks until they release them like like. It's it's not a like totalitarian regime, they're, never a good place uh.

But it's funny to me. You know what i find amusing to patrick, patrick and, like you you'd with it, because, like it's so funny, it's not the constant erosion of human rights and complete basically lack of freedom of religion and speech, and none of this eventually, when you with people's money, they'll They'll actually rise up, but none of this other stuff really topples over regimes like the economy does well it's interesting. I also think a lot of like kind of revolutionary type stuff seems to occur when there's been sort of a gradual improvement and then there's sort of a pushing back down. You know and people don't like once they've sort of uh been breathing the fresh air.

They don't like getting pushed back down again but um. You know i. I don't really know it's kind of interesting because in my video i said you know, turkey is a democrat. You know there are elections in turkey and erdogan.

Would i just want to remind you there were elections in iraq, all right like and yeah? You know. So you know it's hard to know like people on the ground will know more than i do, but um you know it it. You know erdogan would appear to want to win the election like he does appear to be. I i think he has this idea that he can grow the economy and wendy like he did a very funny thing.

Actually, i was going to tell you like it sort of in my first video, the one that did really well. I basically said the problem is the interest rates are just too low and you basically like. Luckily, turkey isn't a total basket case of an em like it's kind of got one problem and that one problem could be fixed but um. What erdogan did was almost a day after my video.

I think he was heavily influenced by it um he. He came up with this thing where, if you're turkish, you can put your money in a special bank account and you'll either earn the rate of interest in turkey or, if um, if the us dollar outperforms, that you get the return as if your money was in U.S dollars, you know, and that's kind of a very interesting, we'll call it like a security that that he sort of put he's made available to the public. You know where you've got sort of the the you know. You've got the potential interest rate or the return of the us dollar and a lot of people.

You know the the the turkish lira spiked, i think about maybe five percent, the the moment that was announced and people came to me and i said, you're wrong, patrick. You see you're wrong, that turkish lira's gone up and it's like well that's kind of an interest rate hike right like if you're, if you're getting like, if people can get sort of inflation protection or an interest rate, it's kind of uh. It's sort of an interest rate hike without announcing an interest rate hike. You know, so you know it's not really a very good solution.

It it sort of picks, winners and losers in that certain people can get it other people can't and if you think about it, if you're wealthy, you could put your money into this and maybe get a high return and if you're poor, you're, just stuck with suffering, Potentially 30 inflation over the next year um. So it's it's a complicated situation, but in a funny way it's slightly demonstrated that that actually a move to uh to a more sensible interest rate policy might turn things around in turkey. I think it's going to be very interesting to see if he actually does a 180 on the interest policy, because he kind of doesn't have a choice seem wise, but but you know equally, he might find some way of doing it while saving face. You know which uh one way or another that's good.

For you know turkey is sort of a tragedy. If you think about it like it's a it's, a good country filled with good businesses, uh hard-working people, and then they they have this uh. You know very difficult situation to deal with. It's always this.

This, the it's like the same thing like in in china, like you, have people trying to work hard, make ends meet a terrific culture and then they're being held hostage by some yeah.