Back to a new video uh. My name is sean and today. We're doing doing something a little bit different. I've actually got a video.

I want to about on a very controversial video that was just posted by someone very popular patrickbetdavid gotten like 600 000. Views in a couple of days. Uh. Basically.

He's calling out dave ramsey. In it. He's making some big um predictions for the for the real estate market with tons of facts. It's very misleading and uh for the average person who doesn't work in the real estate industry or the mortgage interview in particular.

Like me um. They're they're going to be very misguided with it so i wanted to kind of share my opinions as we go through a couple of the a couple of the points. And hopefully you enjoy it hit that like button on this video uh subscribe. If you haven't already and i'm going to jump right into it.

But first if you don't know who patrick bet. David is he's essentially an entrepreneur who sold a very large company. I'm selling insurance. I believe i think he sold like 160 million or something insane like that um.

And so he talks a lot about how he has nothing to gain with the real estate market. Because he's not tied to it um. We'll talk about motives in a little bit. But he basically posted this video talking about the real estate market.

And it pissed off a lot of real estate. People and uh get a lot of people talking so uh. Yeah. Let's just jump right into it first off.

I love how it literally takes patrick bet david 14. Maybe 15 seconds to immediately bring up dave ramsey and start making fun of him i can't knock patrick. But david for that i am not a fan of dave ramsey. Personally if you've seen some videos on this channel.

You'll know why he does have some good stuff that he talks about but majority of the stuff. He preaches or tries to tell people. Um. Is actually not the best advice.

So i love how patrick bet david just immediately goes for it. These are like two titans. Battling right. Now.

You got patrick bet david immediately. Calling out. Dave ramsey. Dave ramsey.

Going to be calling out patrick betdavid. This is what the media likes and this is kind of why i want to make this video. I also want someone to comment on this video. If you can comment how many times patrick bet david says.

The word data. He is trying in this entire video to talk about why he's bringing facts and he has data and he has all of this data data data data when in reality. Most of the data and facts. He's bringing are completely irrelevant to the argument.

He's trying to make free pdf choose whatever you want you want to do with it then make a decision for yourself because when you're 30 seconds into the video now if you know anything about youtubers or really people in general people are always looking after their best interest. I am guilty of it at times as well you have to be really careful about what advice you actually get you know you take in the reason. I bring this up is because you can see through a lot of bs in the first 30 30 to 60 seconds of a video patrick bet david states. The reason.

Why he is making this video. Or what kind of value he has to gain in this video right at 30 seconds right at 31 seconds. He says multiple times you know i've got all these facts and all this data. I put it all into a pdf for you to download check the link in the description to click.

It and go over and download. My pdf this video's sole purpose is not for patrick. But david to basically install all this fear or to make it look like he knows what he's talking about or anything. Like that no the purpose of this video is mainly to grab his viewers data to grab their names or emails or phone numbers or whatever contact lead forms to eventually sell something to that database or essentially sell that data offer or whatever.

It might be so. That is patrick betdavid's primary focus now secondary focus in this video. He does right after this so if we keep watching he basically gives you his hook. Which is what most youtubers will do right so he goes through all of this he gives you his hook.

He talks about his three keys or whatever. It is predict. And blah blah blah blah and then right at 2 minutes 11 seconds or 2 minutes 10 seconds. He goes into the second motive like i was just saying he talks about his sponsor.

He's got better help some big sponsor that paid him tons of money. And said. Hey drive traffic to our website. Here's your upfront.

You know uh promotional money for for promoting our brand or whatever. It is and then for every sign up maybe you get an affiliate commission. I'm just making things up i don't know what it is but at the end of the day. Patrick betdavid is going to make more money based on how many people view this video.

He says multiple times in his video. I don't work in the real estate industry. I am purely doing this to provide facts to people i'm providing value to people and yes you are providing facts. But at the end of the day you are promoting and driving ratings to your video.

This is exactly what media companies do as you all should know by now media companies aren't always correct or exact in the data that they are bringing you and that's because their primary goal is to drive ratings to drive views to drive conversation that's why he's doing all of this in two minutes in 30 seconds of his video. He is solidifying his motive. Without actually saying it he immediately calls out dave ramsey. So everyone knows that there's going to be a fight between patrick bet david and dave ramsey.

Dave ramsey's most likely going to be getting involved. It's going to be driving more ratings. More traffic that's his secondary right. He's driving tons of traffic to his channel.

He's building more ad revenue. He's building more social proof for when he gets new sponsors for future videos right. He's going to say hey. I did this deal with better help better help paid me x.

Amount of dollars. I drove a million views in the first week or whatever it might be so that's his other motive and then he's also saying. Hey go download this pdf download. This pdf and when you go click on the link and download pdf you put in your information.

And whatever he does with that later is is what he's going to do right. That is what we call lead magnet in the marketing world. He is doing all of this initially so he knows if someone falls off of my video five minutes in six minutes in i've already given my pitch. I've already kind of did the important things i need to do and so i'm good with it now we're gonna keep watching this um after this kind of uh you know promo from him.

But we're gonna keep watching this and i'm going to break down a lot of the facts that he mentions while they're not wrong i'm not going to say these facts are wrong. But he is very very very manipulative. Which drives. Me absolutely insane and also some of the things that he even talks about has no relation at all to the point.

He's trying to make first thing i want to look at the loan officer makes money in a couple different ways. One is so first thing he talks about is mortgage refunds. Which fits me so well because i run a mortgage company. I don't think there's anyone more qualified than me or someone like me to talk about this topic so he talks about what a loan officer does right a loan officer basically is the person who structures and puts together your mortgage you have to talk to a mortgage lender.

If you're going to be financing a home it typically starts with a mortgage loan officer not a real estate agent and essentially a mortgage loan officer in most companies is going to be paid very similar to a real estate agent in regards to a percentage of the loan amount in our case. Real estate agent percentage of the sale or transaction. So he explains that right here he explains here's how loan officers make money right and he says hey the two main ways that loan officers make money is one they're going to be making money with refinances they're going to be making money with purchases that's again facts you're correct. He talks about the percentage that a loan officer might make you know company might make two percent or three percent loan officer is gonna walk away with one percent.

He's talking about this all right now right and i'm thinking what does this have to do mortgage application volume was 527 mortgage loan application is 52 percent lower he drops the biggest stat first on mortgage loan application and of course rates are twice as much as what they were last year. So you know a lot of that is because a lot of people aren't refinancing clearly. They're not going to refinance into a higher rate. And he says that right afterwards he basically says okay last week compared to the same period one year ago.

Well of course mortgage applications are going to be down. Because a year ago. Rates are a lot lower and he says that too let's see mortgage application. Which means.

I may be buying a house and i want a loan for a new mortgage of a house on mine. But watch refi applications for refunds on existing mortgage drop seven. So applications for refi alone. Dropped 75 from from a year ago.

Again. These statistics and these data are facts. They are facts i'm not calling him out on on the data that he has gotten mortgage applications are down. 52.

That is a fact no one is refinancing. But then he follows up and tries to make it look like well it's it's not just mortgage refinance applications. It's also purchases right. But in reality of those 52 of mortgage applications that we've seen a decline in of that 52 75 of them are refi so in reality.

It's a very small portion of purchase transactions. Um for applications that have actually fallen and that's not that big of a change. Plus. He also mentions in this video that rates are higher that means monthly payments are higher.

So. It's only natural that mortgage applications are going to be falling. This is what everyone has been preparing for over the last two years. The mortgage industry has seen the biggest boost or gain.

It has ever seen in the last 50 years. So it's only natural that that massive gain or improvement is not going to be continuing the market has to balance each other out and that is what it's doing right now. But he's using these stats as if it is way worse than it is i personally as a mortgage loan officer am not any slower than i was a year ago it's only changed from doing a ton of refinances to now doing a ton of purchases. We are moving into a buyer's market.

Which means more people are able to actually negotiate with their sellers. Um and i'm actually seeing more loans come in the door. Because it's easier for buyers to actually get under contract. So that's that right there i hate it percent from a year ago.

According to the mba's refinance mortgage application index according to aei housing center which tracks mortgage applications by the number of rate blocks. No cash refunds have collapsed you ready try the cherry on the top. Even says right here. The number of rate blocks for no cash.

Refis have collapsed. No duh patrick bet david why would anyone refinance rate and term not get any cash out and raise the rate that's absolutely pointless. There's no reason for that unless potentially you're going through a divorce. Or something like that there's very little reason why you'd want to do a no cash out refi when the rates are higher.

So that statin of itself is absolutely useless. I don't know why he talks about it like it's such a big deal no duh of course it's going to be down 93 absolutely useless stats officers 80 of their income was on refi and then here he goes he talks about even further that drove me absolutely insane he basically says loan officers income 80 of their income over the last year was refinances that might be true patrick met david for a lot of the companies who hired loan officers specifically to do refinances these companies grew massively mortgage companies grew massively because they had tons of refinance volume they had to hire people specifically loan officers specifically to just handle refinances he says 80 percent of a loan officer's income is by refinances that is false it really depends on the loan officer that you're talking to i know plenty of loan officers. Myself included who have always been at a very minimum 50 percent purchase 50 refinance right now i am. 90.

Purchase in 10 percent refinance and i have actually not fallen at all in terms of my overall loan volume. It is the exact same as it was a year ago in fact this upcoming month in august. I'm going to have the biggest month of my entire career so again it's completely up to what the loan officer was actually focusing on that's why this stat is absolutely useless and on top of all of that it doesn't matter what a loan officer makes. Which he goes in right after that loan officer.

Making 20 grand and making four grand who cares what a loan officer is making that has no impact on what the market is actually doing you think a home buyer or a home seller is going shoot you know loan officers are making very little money right now i should probably not sell my house or i should probably not buy a house or man the market's going to crash those loan officers are not making that much money i'm really scared i'm really nervous patrick. But david man. I i get i get you're trying to give some stats. But you got to give some stats that actually make a difference on the market.

Absolutely pointless mute point right there we're just going to skip past the loan officer income because it literally means nothing for the market 500 000 loan. At six percent is two and then he kind of goes in like i was talking about he talks about how you know a higher interest rate is gonna give you a higher monthly payment of course that's why mortgage applications are down that stat does make sense you know three percent six percent nine percent. The math checks out that is very normal inflation is also very high so. If you look at this and you go well payments went up.

You know inch rates went up three percent maybe six percent inflation is up like eight percent. So if people are getting paid five percent six percent seven percent maybe even nine percent bonuses or raises. Because inflation's so high from their employers. This is actually on par.

And it actually should be relatively normal now it takes time as he mentions in this video. Which i'm i'm okay with that it takes time for those things to feel normal. But in the grand scheme of a long term economic effect. Those higher interest rates are actually on par with what employers are actually giving right now he he talks about it how you know companies were overinflated.

They're going to be doing layoffs people are going to have less income. That is a projection that is not a stat he doesn't have any stats about company layoffs. He does talk about layoffs with mortgage companies. Again.

What mortgage companies are making we again had 50 year you know last 50 years the highest income mortgage companies have ever had it's only natural to go through layoffs in that industry. But if he had hard stats on what layoffs were doing across all industries. It would make more sense for the point that he's trying to make. But he does not talk about that he says.

There's a prediction of higher layoffs coming a prediction. Not facts a prediction of higher layoffs coming and if there's more layoffs then of course we're going to have a massive economic downturn today it shows around 57 interest rate. If you go back a couple years. You'll see three.

He actually he talks about also how mortgage rates have historically been still very low. And there's a lot of room for them to increase and i don't disagree with that point that is definitely accurate again that doesn't necessarily mean the market is going to crash. They work independent of each other and actually if you follow me on instagram. You'll know that i actually put out a reel that shows a graph of rental rates.

It shows a graph of mortgage rates and shows. A house of home appreciation rates and they all work independently of each. Other um as much as people like to think that they work closely together. They do have effects of each other.

But it's long term effects. And it's not not a direct correlation. So it talks more about inflation and interest rates. And blah blah blah.

Blah. All right here's this next. One that i absolutely hate that he added this in about nine minutes in he goes here's a stat at an unbelievable rate as the market cools and prices drop at the fastest pace ready since 2000. So the market cools and prices drop at the fastest pace since 2006.

Oh my gosh. I'm so scared what's gonna happen there um. Well yeah. Patrick bet david the market also increased at the fastest pace.

It's ever done probably in the history of the housing industry. Um at least in the last 30 to 50 years. It went up the fastest. It's ever been so if home prices got an appreciation rate of 40 in the last two years.

If we took a 20 decline. Which is a massive decline in the housing market. But let's say we took a 20 decline in prices. We're still up 20 from two years ago.

Which is still four times the average appreciation rate that the housing market has been in the last 50 years that's a fact download my pdf i'm giving you facts facts facts factual data so again i hate that stat as well because it basically means nothing he talks about how home builders are dropping their prices right. If people are are listing homes at the you know 20 appreciation rates that we've been seeing over the last year um. Then obviously they're needing to kind of come back to reality and price it more accurately. And that's why we're seeing those price reductions also going back to initially what i said at the beginning of this video you want to always think about what someone's motive is so dave ramsey is very you know pro the you know the housing market's amazing and patrick by david's like no the housing market's horrible you got to think about the narratives each of them are pushing patrick david as i mentioned pushing ratings.

Pushing views dave ramsey. The other hand. He is selling mortgage. Leads.

He is selling real estate leads. He is basically making money with the more people who contact him about hey i want to buy a house and get them linked up with a real estate brokerage or mortgage company or whatever it might be dave ramsey is also always pushing hey you know you need to get your credit right you need to take my courses you need to buy my content do all of this stuff. If no one is going to be buying houses or trying to buy houses. Then they don't need to get their credit right.

They don't need to kind of handle any of that stuff so they're always going to be you know pushing the very end of the spectrums and i love how patrick brett david has to bring it back up to make sure that uh. Everyone knows that he does not like dave ramsey to buy a house right now you may want to wait another year till. You buy a house just watch this. Data here and you make a decision for.

Yourself so this is from realtorcom. And i want to touch on this graph real quick. So we have 20 22 in yellow. Here right um.

And he's basically saying hey. We have so much inventory. There's so many listings yada yada yada at the rate at which we are getting those listings is a lot i will not deny that fact it's got 187. Percent.

On there that is a fact that is data that is data right here comes patrick by david with his data and facts. But if you look at the actual overall active listings. We are still significantly lower than where we probably should be and we have just recently worked our way into a buyer's market not all cities not all states are even into a buyer's market yet it's still in a seller's market. Now we'll probably work our way into a buyer's market by the end of this year across the country.

But we still aren't there so at the rate at which it's going up is a lot. But you got to look at all of the lines here you see 2021 we had historically low inventory you see 2020 we still had low inventory there then you see 2017 2018 2019 right those are probably more average what people would consider average active listing counts and we are still so far from that that once we get to that point this steady growth rate of going upwards is probably going to change pretty drastically. When we see that oh wow. There are actually tons of houses for sale.

Investors are going to be pouring back into the market first time home buyers going to be pouring back in the market. Because there's going to be so many more options for people to actually buy a house. See the different colors represent different years 2017 18 19. 20.

21. 22. I want you to focus on 20. He very quickly grays out all the other graphs as well to try to manipulate the data.

So you focus only on the growth. Only on the fact that the growth is going up. But you don't look at any of the other lines and see that we're so far off from having a more balanced market. If you own a house.

You build a lot of equity for yourself. But here's a challenge. If that's going up what else has gone up construction's gone up still it basically starts going all these industries. Where home prices or prices in general have been going up of course inflation is so high.

We've been putting so many so much money again this is date. This is information. We've already been talking about this data doesn't come into play when it comes to the housing market. He's just basically trying to put in the fact that hey everything is getting more expensive yes.

Again. Patrick mcdavid. These are real facts inflation is very high inflation should be coming back down. That is facts everything should be coming back down to a more normal rate.

That doesn't necessarily mean things are going to be crashing. But again this is just more data and facts that he's kind of giving us let me continue layoffs. There's layoffs everywhere and then he goes to only mention mortgage companies business with compass for many many years. They're.

Great compass is letting go ten percent of their sales. Companies. Compass. Letting go ten percent.

Redfin's cutting ten percent redfin does real estate and also mortgages high end community realtors your workout company is very prestigious they're letting go of 10 percent okay redfin announced. They're laying off a ton of people chase another mortgage company chase jp morgan's doing massive layoffs and and you notice he just said this they're they're laying off loan officers that's actually not true they're laying off all employees in the mortgage industry like i was saying when mortgage demand falls. There's no reason to have all those those people in those positions. What he doesn't mention is he doesn't give stats about how many people got jobs in the mortgage industry over the last two years.

I bet that stat is far more than how many people are actually getting laid off right now six months from now maybe next year. What would you say is the increasing percentage of foreclosures. I hate how many talks about foreclosure right here because this is the definition of data manipulation and most people who aren't in the industry. Wouldn't really recognize it mortgage foreclosures are up 700.

And he quote. He uses some data source from adam or whatever if you look into the actual data source from adam first of all he's doing data manipulation on the actual fact that he's talking about he says. Right now this video is posted in july of 2022. He's really referencing foreclosures from january of 2022 until january of 2021.

And that's a big problem. For one main reason okay. During kovid you were not allowed banks were not allowed to foreclose on people. When they couldn't make their payment that means that foreclosures were at an all time low during the pandemic because again banks could not foreclose.

So if someone wasn't making their payment. There were coveted relief plans. There were a bunch of other mortgage. Forbearance plans that people could do to essentially not lose their home.

Now. That put a halt to pretty much all foreclosures right so now he's referencing data that hey now banks can actually foreclose on you come january of 2022. So all of those foreclosures that should have happened during 2020. 2021 all happened at the start once the floodgates were open that's why mortgage foreclosures were up so much.

If you actually look at a year ago. From today from july of 2022 to july of 2021 that is not the case. We are not up 700 in foreclosures. This is pure data manipulation.

That's 700 and it's just getting started okay even talks right here. Oh. It's just getting started. Yeah.

No it's not getting started. Oh and then he quotes the big short. I forgot that he does this this is absolutely horrible now if you've seen the big short uh. It's a great movie.

If you haven't seen it you should definitely check it out. But they basically go over the whole housing crash and you know there are a couple people who kind of predicted it they cashed in big yadda yadda now if you watch the movie you'll know that the reason. The housing market crashed in 2008. Was because of mortgages people were getting mortgages.

When they should not have been people had four five six mortgages when they shouldn't have even qualified for one that's the reason. The housing market crashed he talks about these foreclosures they're up 700. And it's just getting started. And it's going to get worse and worse and worse.

And then he kind of drops in the big short and how people from the big short. Not the actual actors. The actual people uh from the big shorter. Saying.

You know oh yeah. They you know this is basically what was happening in 2008. And you know everyone's saying this wouldn't happen and the market wouldn't crash and yada yada. The difference between 2008.

And now is the fact that it is very challenging to get a mortgage. I do mortgages. I know plenty of people who i personally think would have no problem making this mortgage payment. But for whatever reason.

The guidelines are very strict and they cannot get a mortgage and we have to say hey you cannot get a mortgage. You have to do xyz now back in the day. They didn't have those things you wanted a mortgage you had a pulse you got a mortgage. Nowadays.

It's very challenging to get them. So. The reason. The foreclosures were increasing in the past was because people legit just couldn't make their mortgage.

Right. Now. The reason foreclosures are up is because no one has been allowed to be foreclosed on so it all happened right at once. So i really hate the fact that he's utilizing this because everyone's heard of the big short everyone knows what happened in 2008.

But they don't know the true cause of it and they think oh we're headed for another 2008. We are not if we see a correction or a decline in the market. It is not because of people getting mortgages when they shouldn't have anyway. What i'm trying to get to you know bottom line at the end of this video is basically patrick bet david is driving ratings.

That is his primary goal. His primary goal is to drive as many views and as much discussion as possible. It's obviously working tons of people are making videos about this tons of people are included tons of people making videos about it talking about sharing with people showing it to other people. It's spreading through the real estate industry like wildfire um.

And he knew that would happen when he gave an opinion or facts about all this because anyone who's not actually in the industry are going to take these facts at face value and go holy crud. He's actually correct i i think the market is going to be crashing. That's good points. Those are good facts let me get his fat sheet.

Let me get sold from some product from him. Later. And i have to give patrick. But david massive credit his delivery in a video is incredible the guy knows how to talk into a camera.

And how to cultivate an audience. He is phenomenal at that he's been in sales his entire life. He's incredibly good at it um. So i can't knock him there i felt like if i didn't know what i was doing in the real estate industry.

I would have been eating out of this guy's hand and if you actually look at the comments on this video. Everyone who's watching this are eating out of his hand as well they see these stats they see what he's saying. They they are basically taking his delivery in and going holy cow. We're heading for the worst thing ever ah and it's just so much manipulation.

It drives. Me nuts now to kind of uh put some ending thoughts on this you know a lot of people are pretty much been reaching out to me. And saying. Hey what are your thoughts on the market.

I get a lot of my investors calling me weekly a lot of first time home buyers who will call me. And say hey i don't know if now is the right time for for buying a house or what are your thoughts on the market. And you know basically i tell everyone the same thing. You know you can never time.

Things perfectly. Patrick bet david even says that in his video. You can never time things perfectly. And he talks about kind of getting things cheaper when he can i always say if it makes sense for you to purchase a house and buy a house.

If it doesn't make sense to purchase house. And don't buy a house. It doesn't matter. What the market's doing it matters.

What you're doing and what's going to be financially responsible for you and if that's home ownership. Then great if it's not then go rent. It's it's not like you should be trying to time the market because it's impossible. I personally will always be purchasing homes.

You know i'm 26 years old no matter. What the market is doing there it'd have to be almost the apocalypse for me to not want to buy a house. I'm going to be constantly purchasing more and more real estate. Until i get to the age of probably 40 45 years old and at that point.

I'd kind of think okay is it in my long term strategy to be continuing to buy or should. I be maybe just holding on with what i have should i maybe even be selling at that point that's when things become you know a little more convoluted a little more strategy involved. But time is always on your on your favor. Um.

You know the market's gonna go like this. It's always gonna go like this every couple of years so as long as you're gonna be holding real estate. You're probably gonna be okay again this is not financial advice. This is not you know i'm giving you big data and facts and all this stuff and the market's not gonna crash.

I'm not saying that the market could see a correction it could see a decline. I'm not saying that i'm just saying that you need to actually understand what you are listening to in this case. Or what you are consuming media. Wise.

Because facts don't always necessarily matter. When you're cultivating an argument. You talk to any attorney or you even look at. I mean.

There's tons of lawyer movies and shows now you know they bring up facts and things that aren't always necessarily relevant. But it draws on people it pulls people in when you say the word fact. When you show a fact patrick bet. David's facts are legit facts.

He is not making these facts up. He is manipulating. These facts and basically utilizing facts that don't actually give you good market insight now he relates a lot to the 2008 crash and the last thing thought i'll give you is we are not headed for a 2008 market crash. If the market corrects or goes down.

It is not because of the fact that people can't make their mortgage payments. That is the last reason why i am in the mortgage industry. I can confidently tell you that people getting mortgages are well qualified for those mortgages. I mean just just always take what you're consuming and what you're seeing online or just from anyone in general even in person with a little bit of a grain of salt.

Hopefully you found this video. Helpful. I know a lot of people are talking about this video right now i wanted to give my two cents. I want to give my opinion on it you know being in the mortgage industry and just kind of seeing the manipulation.

That was going on that really really made my blood boil. So again hopefully you found value in this video if you did please hit that like button um please comment down below your thoughts and otherwise i will see you in the next video.