Fed November Meeting Minutes show members concerned about inflation and willing to tighten policy should it continue to rise. Meaning that Fed Taper Inflation based correction is almost here. The meeting summary stated that Fed officials are willing to raise interest rates and reduce asset purchase by 15 billion USD per month until a complete halt in mid 2022.
Here is the link to my tutorial on how to build an inflation proof portfolio:
https://youtu.be/M5OqYWZ79Ok
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DISCLAIMER: All of Tom's trades, strategies, and news coverage are based on his own opinions alone and are only done for entertainment purposes. If you are watching To'ms videos, please Don't take any of this content as guidance for buying or selling any type of investment or security. Tom Nash is not a financial advisor and anything said on this YouTube channel should not be seen as financial advice. Tom is merely sharing his own personal opinion. Your own results in the stock market or with any type of investment may not be typical and may vary from person to person. Please keep in mind that there are a lot of risks associated with investing in the stock market so do your own research and due diligence before making any investment decisions.
Here is the link to my tutorial on how to build an inflation proof portfolio:
https://youtu.be/M5OqYWZ79Ok
👏👏 Big shout out to our growing list of Patreons. For those of you want (and can) support our channel, here is how you can help: https://www.patreon.com/user?u=13016082
Here is the link for the 10% coupon code for TipRanks:
https://bit.ly/3BJA7KJ
You can now book a live 1X1 call with me via Clarity here: https://clarity.fm/tomnashv2
DISCLAIMER: All of Tom's trades, strategies, and news coverage are based on his own opinions alone and are only done for entertainment purposes. If you are watching To'ms videos, please Don't take any of this content as guidance for buying or selling any type of investment or security. Tom Nash is not a financial advisor and anything said on this YouTube channel should not be seen as financial advice. Tom is merely sharing his own personal opinion. Your own results in the stock market or with any type of investment may not be typical and may vary from person to person. Please keep in mind that there are a lot of risks associated with investing in the stock market so do your own research and due diligence before making any investment decisions.
Finally, some interesting news coming out about: what's going on with inflation, with interest rates and somehow what we got for mainstream media was this the more bearish it's going to be at the front end of the curve, the more focused it is on employment? So i know what you're thinking this sound was not on my end, this was original. You can interpret whatever. That was. I personally think it was a fart but hold on.
Let's give this second guy a chance, because the guy next supposed to have all the data. Let's see how he did steve leesman, i don't know whether you're ready, but i'm going to turn it to you anyway, because i know you're always ready. What did the headline say have the headlines yet tyler. If you would just give me a few minutes, they came uh over a minute late.
We are all right through them at the moment. Tyler all right. Thank you. I i will give you all the time you need my friend.
So i've never seen this before a guy, basically saying on there. Well, i didn't come prepared. I'm sorry literally. This is the level of mainstream media right now, let's see how the third guy does, how consequential is the kind of tightening we expect to see going to be for the economy you're, bringing up a great point right.
You've got a fed that wants to put a foot on the on the brake and you've got a a government that wants to put a foot on the gas. So, mr boomer here and by the way boomer is his last name in case you were wondering i'm not calling him a boomer, so mr boomer here just came out with his professional grade level. Analysis on national tv, mainstream media fed wants to raise interest rates. Government does not want to raise interest rates.
It's a problem. Thank you for the analysis, sir. Thank you so much, and since this is the best mainstream media can produce, let me do their job for them in this video i'll do what they should have done. I'll recap: for you in two minutes exactly what the minutes actually are saying: what are the implications in plain english, what's going to happen with the economy and mainly where the stock market is headed and how my strategy for the next three months is going to be Shaping up based on these minutes, actual trades and investments i'm going to do based on what we just saw, which is what we needed to get from mainstream media, but instead we got the okay.
Let's just do it. So, first of all, if you watch this channel, you know i like to have a mixed strategy. I like to have a little bit of risk a little bit of exposure to some extra fluffy stuff, but i also like to be grounded. I'm not gon na put all my money in shiba inu, but also not gon na put all my money in the etf s p 500..
We like to have a mixed strategy, something with the risk exposure, but also with the feet on the ground. Based on that, i'm going to tell you what my strategy is in this video based on what we just heard from the fed, because we heard a lot there's a lot to unpack here. Let's get started, but first you know the bottom line always comes. First, my videos we're going to start with the 30 second bottom line, because i know some of you are in a hurry. You don't have time for the full analysis, no problem, no hard feelings. So before we started as always, i don't want you to click nothing to smash. Nothing, there's no need, don't buy anything. We don't got no courses, no sponsors, just listen.
My only purpose in this video is just to give you the information. So if you're just listening, that's all you got to do just focus and concentrate so, let's start first point so the fed actually came out and said: well, we finally realized that the risk of inflation is real. We accept it, we know it and we have to actually address it. Finally, hallelujah for the first time these guys are willing to talk about tightening the policy.
Thank god now you saw what happens when they don't tighten policy. For example, what happened in turkey - which is quite alarming so at least they acknowledge, they have a problem, the first step of curing any addiction and mind you that this market is addicted to the monday. Printer is just admitting you have a problem now they actually spoke about raising interest rates, and they said we might have to do it sooner than most of you expect again hallelujah. Finally, they're actually talking about getting done, even though it's going to be unpleasant.
Now, when i'm going to tell you in a second bottom line, is i think, june july, but earliest, while it might be february between february and june july, i'm going to talk about how i came up with these dates in just a few minutes. But if you just need the bottom line, probably february until july, this is the range where they're actually going to do it but hold on it's much more nuanced than this now um. I think what we need to talk about is the fact that what we saw in these minutes was kind of a mixture between the aggressive, let's start tapering and even more aggressive. Let's start taping right now as fast as we can.
It's no longer the moderates again. The aggressive it's the aggressives against the more aggressive, so it's definitely a trend where we see my stuff just literally self-combusted on the floor, so it shifted from being moderate versus aggressive, basically no tapering versus tapering. Now the whole discussion is about aggressive versus more aggressive paper. Now or taper now, faster and harder pretty much.
The whole debate is about how strong the taper should be no longer the moderates, it's actually about to happen. Now they actually did something interesting. They set up themselves to fail, so to speak or to succeed, no matter how you want to look at it, they basically said well, we don't have a choice if the market forces us to taper we'll have to taper, so basically they set a condition, a condition That has to be fulfilled. Basically, they said well. If the prices keep going up we'll have to taper, we won't have any choice. Setting in condition like this is pretty much. You know saying well if my grandpa does not wake up in a dumpster bag after the christmas party in some city in the vicinity of 40 kilometers we're not gon na taper. Well, we know two things are going to happen during christmas.
The prices will go up. Supply chains are going to get worse and my grandpa is probably in some city in some dumpster already prepping for the christmas party, so this sort of condition is just for them to be able to say well, we had no choice and now we're getting to the Operational stuff, what exactly is the plan? How fast the ground taper, because it's important to understand what exactly the plan is? So let me give you the background right now, the fed and for a while the fed has been printing money. We all know this. We also the meme, but what does it actually mean? How do they print money - they're, not just giving out money on the street right? I wish they would have done that.
What they're actually doing is they're buying assets, they're buying mortgage-based securities and treasury bonds and, in fact, they're buying so much they're buying about 120 billion of these per month. This is an insane amount. This is the definition of being a drug addict, so basically they're printing. All this money, by putting it into the asset, purchase market and they're, pumping these 120 billion, what it does it actually has a combined snowball effect.
On the one hand, they're pumping money into the system by basically putting 120 billion dollar into the market every single month. But also what they're doing is they're increasing demand for both more great margin mortgage max securities and treasury bonds. When that happens, what happens to the yield? The yield goes down when the yield goes down. The interest rate goes down when the interest rate is at zero.
Nobody's saving any money, everybody's spending like it's 1999 and what it does actually increases inflation, because there's way more competition for the same amount of goods and services, because everybody has a lot of money, nobody's saving everybody's spending, inflation of prices happens, and now this is the End because, finally, for the first time they basically said well we're starting to slow down by 15 billion per month, so basically from 120 we're gon na go to 105 and then to 90 and so forth and so forth for every month. It goes by from now on, it's going to be reduced by 15 billion dollars until probably june or july next year, when we go to complete zero, a slow withdrawal process for the u.s market, which is the junkie in this case. Basically, that means that my theory, all along, was accurate, that we're actually going to see the impact of tapering in february or june july in that range. Now i was leaning more towards february, but it seems to be a little bit longer than that, but it's definitely way more accurate than the people that were screaming that we're gon na start taping right now immediately nobody's gon na. Do it right away immediately cold turkey? It's gon na be a long process. It's gon na be a few months until we start feeling that impact. So now that we know that that's nice, but what does it actually mean for our portfolios? How do we make money from this tom? Well, the first thing we need to understand is how the market reacted to this news, because it's going to tell us a lot about what's going to come next and the markets were kind of okay with that it was lukewarm, nothing ecstatic not up nor down. Everything was cool, i believe the s p 500 went up by 10 points yesterday, right now, the futures of the dow, the s p, 500 and the nasdaq are all up.
0.2 0.3 percent depends on which ones you're looking at so. Basically, the market is all chill about this. It only confirms what i told you earlier is that we have time nobody's stressing out about something that's going to happen in june july next year. There's plenty of time in the stock market, six or seven months is eternity.
There's a lot to hold down and the markets are not going to price in a seven month ahead event right now. Basically, it means we have time, there's no rush, but we need to start slowly kind of adjusting our portfolios to what's going to happen next year, which means adding more exposure to value stock, something like financial markets, infrastructure, energy and slowly slowly, reducing the exposure to tech. But still keeping tech as the main component, at least in my personal portfolio. Now not a financial advisor.
You know i'm just a guy in there into an opinion, which means it might be inaccurate might be wrong, might be the ramblings of amendment, but this is just what i'm going to do now check this out. I will tell you how exactly i'm going to do it in a second and by the way, just a quick reminder. The markets are going to be open just until 1 pm on a friday because of the thanksgiving weekend. So if you have to do you better, do them before one.
So what i'm understanding here is that we have plenty of time to rotate from completely being exposed to tech and growth into value. There's no need to chase value traps. We can do it slowly, especially with how much of a beating the tech market actually took for the past week with all the tech stocks in battle completely we'll saw like zoom go down, 20 valentine went down 20, i mean asana went down 20 everything crowdstrike. All the tech company snowflake everybody took a massive hit and now with the market, basically saying okay, so the minutes were not that bad.
We have seven. Eight months now, you'll see the tech slowly start to climb back up. In fact, i just checked palantir. It's already up like two three percent in the last day or two, so the tech will slowly start going back to normal. Now, there's no point in rotating right now, at these cheap bargain basement prices for tech into value you're going to be selling yourself short. What i'm going to be doing is i'm going to be waiting until my text talks go back to normal pricing and then i'm going to pick the top five conviction, stocks that i have and everything else i'm going to slowly liquidate as long as the prices go Back to reason, and get into more of my value plays i'm going to make a whole different video about which value place to invest in. But at the end of this video i'm going to link up another video which i did about how to build the bulletproof portfolio during inflation. I'm going to put this as the end screen for this video.
So right after this video, you can go ahead and watch that, but don't worry, there's a more detail: more updated video coming up in just about a few days, three or four days, i'm gon na raise a video about my top inflation stocks for the next three Months and if you do want to watch that video about me breaking down the perfect bulletproof portfolio in inflation, i'm going to put it right here on the screen. You can click on it, go and watch it right now and wait for my next video going deeply into specifics and deeply into stocks that i'm going to be investing in i'll. See you that video in just a second you.
Give Grandpa my best and Happy Thanksgiving Tom!
IMO the great correction is coming sooner then we think. I'm definitely not a gay bear but im starting to hunker down my portfolio for the coming storm. Remember my guys sun will shine again!
Tom’s poor grandpa needs help 🤣
As the economy crisis keep rising,one needs to have different streams of income, a well detailed diversified investment portfolio in the financial markets is needed to survive, as well as secure a profitable investment future! Wondering if viewers here are familiar with Betty Gary trading strategies
Fed will not rase rates this year
dude where is the news here? its not a secret for some wks already and 100bill/month is still quite aggressive pump though….Im rather curious how the mid terms will be affecting FED‘s actions next year
Tom kicking out real bangers. Keep it up sir!
What if your growth stocks don’t get back to a place where you’re profitable prior to the FED tapering. Would you sell at a loss or keep them long. What’s your acceptable loss on growth to transition to value?
I’m not looking for financial advice, I’m asking your opinion / real strategy.
The msm give us a new type of fud
Fart, unprepared and diddly- squat
republicans are traitors. MAGA!
" I personally think it was a fart "
Been adding $VALE $RIO $VICI and $PLTR to my $TSLA Heavy portfolio
They should use pltr to find out when to taper
Hey Tom, for a value play, what do you think of Waste Management (WM) or the waste based EVX ETF? Overpriced at a 40 PE ratio?
"Six months is an eternity in the stock market." Something us MMAT / MMTLP dividend holders know all too well.
Anyone else wants to see Tom's grandad? He features in every other video 😄
Looking forward to see your value plays. I am a tech fiend… so it's hard buying value. But maybe I'll buy 'value' tech 😉
Tom "the madman of the ramblings" Nash
Just watched the video about inflation, what happen to your accent? 😀 good stuff though
the government needs a 12 step program Money Printers Anon
I used to sell everything speculative before Thanksgiving and x-mas . Way to much time for things to happen without the possibilty to reacte.
Thank you Tom, really needed a video like this, not enough people preparing for interest rates rising
Hi Tommm…. Go Bucksssss hahahhaha
February, June or July? Well, since we know that the cards in Wall Street poker are dealt alternately by Fear and Greed, then we can assume with certainty that the psychological factors will overtake the economic ones. I bet the party will start before Christmas – so, as many times before, Fear will be the one to lead the dance, not the Fed…
This span from Feb-July, do you think growth stocks will taper as well?
I think I should hold onto cash until then, what do you think?
Psychology is the ultimate fundamental. It surpasses any other element of economic policy, investing etc. Start there and expand out. Within psychology, start first with the core elements like fear, greed, ego, and then work toward more complex interdependencies (if you even need to based on your understanding). Combine that with the nuts and bolts of economic policy and investing fundamentals and you have a solid base.
Tesla to 2,000 usd or Sell Tesla Stock? If you are not willing to own a stock for 10 years do not even think of owning it for 10 minutes. – Warren Buffet.
One farts, one doesn’t know what’s happening and the third one tries to sound smart
Great Stuff. I started watching your videos last year as a beginner before giving stock market a trial. I was able to make $972,000 within 3 Months with a capital of $200,000.
Bulletproof investment is a good metaphor.. because there's always armor peircing munitions and larger rounds that armor just can't protect you from.
This video was funny but in some part it's sad …
Btw, happy thanksgiving! (not a thing here in Europe)
Good points! Reducing 15b each month but theres still idiots screaming market crash
Always the best analysis Tom. Happy Turkey Day!!