Palantir. What Really Went Wrong...
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πππ Big shout out to our growing list of Patreons. For those of you want (and can) support our channel, here is how you can help: https://www.patreon.com/user?u=13016082
Here is the link for the 10% coupon code for TipRanks:
https://bit.ly/3BJA7KJ
You can now book a live 1X1 call with me via Clarity here: https://clarity.fm/tomnashv2
I have a long position in PLTR stock.
DISCLAIMER: All of Tom's trades, strategies, and news coverage are based on his own opinions alone and are only done for entertainment purposes. If you are watching To'ms videos, please Don't take any of this content as guidance for buying or selling any type of investment or security. Tom Nash is not a financial advisor and anything said on this YouTube channel should not be seen as financial advice. Tom is merely sharing his own personal opinion. Your own results in the stock market or with any type of investment may not be typical and may vary from person to person. Please keep in mind that there are a lot of risks associated with investing in the stock market so do your own research and due diligence before making any investment decisions.
So, let's talk about palantir, why volunteer took a massive dump yesterday, almost 10 percent post earnings and by all accounts these were really nice earnings. So what the hell happened. What is this musguba? Well, let me explain to you now. I believe that it all stems from poor communication skills, i'm probably not going to get an invite from sham sankar to the next office and the veil of paluntier, but i'm going to call it like.
I see it love the company love the results hated the way he did the conference call. It was horrendous, it was a cringe fest. I felt like i was being sold a used car, not to mention the fact that he dodged some easy questions which palantir actually has a good answer to. I don't understand this.
It was one of the lowest performances i've seen from an executive on a conference call of that magnitude. I honestly don't understand what the hell is going on. In fact, even when he was asked just little questions that were not scripted, he actually did well well. That is until he completely dodged the question from alex zucking about, what's going on with the breakdown between government, commercial, completely disregarded the question lack of transparency over hype, sorry sean - this was just a fest and i believe your performance in the call drove the price down By 10, because there's no other explanation, let me show you the numbers and you'll see that the numbers are phenomenal.
So there's no reason for that. The way he behaved. That call reminded me of somebody who was so uptight so pressured not to make a mistake. That is scripted every single breath, and this is what happens.
Oh my god. One thing we heard on the call which was very interesting to hear is the fact that alex carp he's already used the entire sbc the stock based comp that he got 10 years ago. This was about to expire. He was selling in order to pay the taxes on the exercise, options and basically dumping shares according to some haters and bears who just don't understand how stock option taxation works and basically what they said on this call.
He already finished selling about 96 of that grant from 10 years ago and he's done with it. The next grant is going to come up in 10 years. Obviously we have a long time to go until all these idiots come out. Basically saying alex, carp is dumping, so at least that part of our explanation is finally over.
Thank god. Another good stuff we saw is that they actually went up to 3.6 billion in deal flow, which is already set in motion, and out of that, 800 million is already guaranteed cash in the bank, so these guys have really performed well, this quarter and now, let's talk About the difficult stuff, the concerns i had and how the lack of ability of sham sankar to communicate these concerns really hurt the company yesterday and it really sucks for me as an investor, but it makes me question about. What's going to happen next, i mean, if he's the successor, to alex carp, he needs to do a lot of practicing, but as for yesterday, well sean you have a lot of explaining to do so. Let's start with the revenue growth, everybody on the call communicated well the 39 growth in revenue from previous year to this year, which was nice. But nobody has said a single word about the fact that half one first half of the year, then second half of the year also have to be examined. But nobody talked about this six month period, especially when it actually grew by over 50 percent 50 growth. And this half versus the comparable have last year, meaning q2 and q3 combined a 50 growth shouldn't. You have said anything about the shop.
I don't understand why this was not mentioned, even though it's a phenomenal number that shows an insane amount of growth. Comparing two quarters consecutively: let's compare the last six months to this six months we went from 481 million to 716 million, so let's do 716 minus 481. We grew by 235 million, let's divide it by 481., so not only. They grew by 39 quarter compared to previous quarter last year.
They also grew by 50, first half versus first half last year and again that's something that should have been communicated, and i don't understand why why they didn't say anything about this. These are really strong numbers, and now, let's get to the two things that i was really curious about, wanted to hear in the call, but nothing even though he was specifically asked by alex zucking and the final question still sham dodged the question, even though the numbers Are really good, as i'm about to show you right now so basically, the first thing i want to know is client concentration. Is it still as bad as it was and number two? I wanted to see the segmentation between commercial and government number three. I wanted to see how much each side is growing.
Three things didn't get an answer. Now i dug inside the documents of the company. I went through the entire filing and i actually calculated these, but it took me just 45 minutes to extract these numbers. Instead of you just saying it, because why not, the numbers are good, so, as you can see right here, they have 169 customers for the trailing 12 months.
Now, that's an increase from 137 customers, so they're increasing the amount of customers. That's all fine and dandy, but check this out. They're telling you right here that the average spend per client went up from 6.6 million to 7.9 million and look at what they're telling you here. The average revenue pair client from the top 20 clients went up by 36 from 28.6 million to 39 million dollars, so you can easily calculate.
What's the client concentration, it's quite easy and if you calculate these numbers, you'll see that their client concentration for the top 20 clients went down from 63 64, all the way down to 60 percent. So in fact, they reduce clan concentration in this quarter. By about four percent, it's not a bad thing. I don't know why would you not say that, because it's a strong number that should have been actually highlighted, not to mention they actually added 30 plus clients this quarter again, something that should have been stressed out more now. The other thing is: why would you not talk about the actual split between government and commercial people want to know this and look even at the total breakdown, so government used to be 139 million out of 251, so government used to be 55.3 of their entire business. Now, let's take 232 million out of 375. 61.8, so any talk that the government is actually getting weaker. As you can see right here, the government business is growing by almost 70 percent.
It's now 62 percent. It's actually an increase. There can't be a case made that this is a strictly government contractor 40 of their business is coming from this new segment. They just started three years ago, it's already at 40, so saying it's a government contractor.
It's just nonsense. Just looking at the breakdown again, something that should have been communicated, i sound like a broken record, but it is the other part is the growth, how much each side actually grew and again not communicated? Let's take the numbers right here. We went from 139 million to 232 million in government, so let's do 232 minus 139, so we totally grew by 93 million divided by 139. We have growth of 67 percent on the government side really impressive.
So any talk about government side getting softer is just nonsense. As you can see, they're growing by almost 70 per government use now look at the commercial side as well. Commercial site grew from 112 to 143, so let's do 143 minus 112. we're getting 31 and we're going to divide it by 112.
total growth of 27.6. Very nice growth on the commercial side right online with their ad, and here i want you to look at another thing, any talk of palantir losing money. Look. They may not be profitable on an ebitda basis, but look their current assets grown from 2 billion to 2.34 billion from last year.
And if you take a look at here, it's not like they took out a loan. Their debt decreased from 200 million to zero, so they paid out their 200 million dollar loan completely and still grew cash by 330 million dollars and right here i want you to take a look at this thing. Everybody talks about the based compensation, blah blah blah blah blah blah look. Stock-Based compensation actually brings in a lot of money for this company look proceeds from exercise of common stock options, so the company actually got 376 million dollars from people who exercise options to get stock.
So it's not like they're giving away the stock for free, in fact, they're actually getting money. It's reported as a loss on accounting purposes, but not on cash flow on cash flow, it's actually a gain of 376 million, which is something people just refuse to understand. Now, personally, i don't care about the 10 dip, it's the plus. For me, i'm gon na buy more, but there's a lot of new people, new investors in volunteer and they get really frustrated when they see the swings, especially when their perks are really good. Just the food for thought again, just my opinion might be an accurate - might be wrong, maybe ramblings of a madman as always. Don't click, nothing, don't smash. Nothing just enjoy the video, that's it. I got nothing to say to you as always a huge thanks to the channel members, the palantirians that are in our patreon by the way five dollars per month and you get to support the channel.
If you just want to watch the videos, that's fine too! Thank you from the bottom of my heart, see you tomorrow.
I doubt that presentation skills caused the decrease in stock price. If investors rely on presentation skills to drive this stock price, I really have nothing to say about this stock
I hope Palantir investor relations is watching your video Tom, because you are absolutely right! Whoever is going to be the spokesperson on these earnings calls needs to know the numbers but needs to be F*ing pumped and exhibit passion and conviction the way Karp does. Hope they do a better job next time.
Tom, yes the report wasn't bad, but at 37x ttm price/sales, they needed to knock it out of the park. 37% y/y growth doesn't raise eyebrows in the high growth software space where 50%+ is expected. Why are you so concentrated on putting out content on this ticker? NET, DDOG, CRWD, UPST, MNDY, SNOW, ZI, APPS, ASAN, CFLT, NEWR, JAMF, DOCN. Play the field my friend.
Tom, im really tempted to close my apple position to buy PLTR. haha, love your work man. You are the TRUTH!
Tom needs to sit behind CEOs making earnings calls and just whack βem upside the head whenever they leave out key points! ππ€
Why are you using June financial statements instead of September?
I agree with you Tom. I hold Palantir shares since last year but I feel they have poor communication skills that's affecting perception and also understanding of their business model. So many jargons and terms. They need to take a page from Apple and simplify so some of the genuine investor groups can understand and build our conviction even more on the stock. They've got a great product and business model, but they need to come down a bit to help better translate their products, services and execution. Most of us feel like sitting in a spaceship listen to engineers briefing.
And I totally agree, they blew the conference call. Was too much hype and jitters. Not unexpected for a new listed company learning the ropes in delivering public earning calls, but they need to be much better.
The stock gets dump not for any reason, it's all been planned. It went up to 27 to sell, and then fell to buy back. That's that simple.
Ur gonna tell me PLTR dropped base on communication skills? These MOFOβs crashed it on purpose so they wouldnβt lose money on their shorts.
Because they are drunk on options!! The upper management is going overboard with compensation!! Its really a big drag on the stock pricing. The street hates the structure. I have been invested pre IPO and tired of the entire set up. Wall street wont invest $$ in the company while this continues.
Wonderful opportunity to buy some shares. I can not thank you enough for your last 2 videos on PLTR and the 6 month comparison was outstanding.
Anyone want to address the elephant in the room then? It seems to be a culture of… scripted, try hard, esoteric, and almost condescending attitudes from the prominent personalities inside palantir. I dont doubt their brilliance and excellence in a variety of things.
But sometimes people just live their lives with a chip on their shoulder. They have made this attitude part of their sales pitch imho. The investor relations segments in my time investing in this company have come with tons of cringe.
Dude said "hodl" last quarters call.
Edit * I'm long pltr and want them to succeed.
You guys need to buy the heck out of this dip!!!! I just tied up $10,000 worth of put options!
Positions I down the most
PLtr
Fubo
Clov. What do these have in common?π€
Tom, PLTR seems to be pinned at 23 by MM's. When will they leave PTLR alone? When will this manipulation end? Any thoughts?
I was so disappointed with Palantir but now I feel much better. Thank you as always. Tom your are the best.
I was def cringing during the earnings call and it was wasnβt because of the actual earnings lol
I think people really didn't understand the earnings. Yes their new government contracts didn't achiev the expectations, but what Palantir actually needs is more commercial contracts because you can only grow so much with government contracts. So I personally am really happy with the numbers. I honestly don't care about the call, amazing chance to get more shares for cheaper. I honestly didn't expect to ever get palantir for such a discount, I'm extremely happy right now since this is a long term investment for me. Yes my old position that i started only a while ago is now down like 15% but I am now able to get in really cheap.
I think there was a lot of buying going on expecting an insanely good quarter and the news got sold, just like it often happens with Tesla even though they actually destroy expectations every quarter lol..
So I am honestly happy. Yes it sucks to go into my app and see my position down so much (actually Tesla dropping like 15% didn't make it better :D) but again I think it really doesn't matter in the long run.
Idk why anyone is surprised it's quite well known at this point that Palantir drops on good news – we just keep holding it boys
30y treasury went through a nightmarish auction today and also incredibly parabolic CPIβ¦if you ask me which I could be dead wrong..Iβd have to say the high growth correlation plus an anticipation that a taper compresses multiples was likely the cause..the pattern of sell off at earnings in anticipation of a forthcoming rate hike could also be the mentalityβ¦who knows im def no expert but these are the patterns that stood out to me def think it has to do with the expectation of rates hiking
Just a thought for future Earnings. Retails love the βSay Appβ could we include a vote on what slides/comparisons we would like to see in the presentation?
PLTR is the definition of a dumpster fire, no matter what time horizon you're looking at. Management is just awful at communication, they really need someone else in there.
Where is the BOOM Tom??? You pumped daily for the whole 9 months!
That Palentir earning call made me think the last time I entered a GM dealership and got oversold and b..sh..t
Makes me question if sanakar is even capable of holding the COO position now. Out of the year, earning call should be the top priority.
As investors, one thing we can do to voice our dismay over this kind of executive reporting is to vote this exec OFF the Boad, so VOTE this character off the board and show him WHO is the boss in his company!
Buying Jan'23 LEAP call option 11.60 strike at 12.50. in the next one month a likely 15% price increase back to the 26 range will make a good short term profit