Can somebody please check on these Pltr short sellers I Think they're having a rough couple of days? Maybe they should find a new job folks. In today's video I'm going to be showing you the hard math on why I Expect Paler to double this year from current share prices as of today reaching approximately 51 bucks a share by January 1st, 2025 and then going on to more than 10x by 2035. Now we all know how Paler stock trades. Huge Massive Euphoria Cycles followed by huge massive dysphoria cycles and so on and so forth.

but overall upward trajectory. As the business itself follows an overall upward trajectory in today's video, we are going to look past this week's trading and look out to the medium to long-term prospects for Paler stock, the actual value that Paler is going to be creating for shareholders, for customers, and for of course their bottom line. And before we get into it, the only thing that I ask in return is that you hit that ravishing like button. And also don't forget to subscribe.

And of course always remember that it is up to you to do your own due diligence. Never buy a stock just because we talk about it here on the channel you. you need to be doing your own research. Remember if you're the one taking the risk, you got to be the one doing the ultimate.

Frisk Lots of people. They get real frisky without thinking about their risky and vice versa. Big problem in today's society. Okay, Paler.

So Paler had an amazing reaction to Monday's earnings report breaking into new cycle highs after new cycle High And the overall momentum for Paler Stock that we've seen since May of 2023 has been its most consistent in years. and we did go through Palente earnings on Monday, but just in case you missed it, here are some highlights: The story was that Paler Commercial segment is absolutely destroying, destroying the game. and to say that it's in a boom cycle is an understatement. Talenter overall grew 20% year-over-year 9% quarter over quarter, but Us commercial Revenue grew 70% year-over-year and 12% quarter over quarter.

Us commercial customer count grew 55% year-over-year Us commercial total contract value grew 107% year-over-year Pretty much every major metric that is relevant boomed. Cash flow in cash from operations showed 50% margin. They also got about 3.7 billion cash on hand at the same time. Paler right now is exponentially printing profits.

Real money as we speak. But how do all these numbers and all this excitement come together to motivate Paler stock? To the upside, how can you forecast where Paler stock is going to be trading? Based on all of these numbers, it's very, very easy to get lost in the noise and not know how to put everything together right? So how can we use this information here to predict a general trend of where Paler could be in one, or five, or 10, or even maybe 15 years? Well, there's a few different ways to project, and I'm going to focus on two Today we're going to focus on the sales multiple method and then we're going to look at what I think is a more accurate way to forecast which is the free Cash Flow method. I'm going to show you some super conservative estimates and then we're going to go into my estimates which aren't so conservative. Okay, let's go ahead and start with what we already know.

So in 2020, Paler stock ended at about $25.95 in 2021, it ended at about $18.41 in 2022, $624 20123, $17.36 and in 2024, let's just say it's going to end at the same price it is today. Just to be very conservative, we'll say it's at $23. 34. Now, we know all of these things, right? What do we know about the sales growth? Well, we know that sales growth in 2020 year-over-year was 47% In 2021, it was 41% In 2022, it was 24% in 2023, or 17% And for 2024, the company Paler is projecting it to be just under 16% Now in terms of free cash flow, which arguably is the most relevant metric in any company.

Really, because this is the money that they're not just declaring as profit, but money that is actual profit, not just an accounting mumbo jumbo. Free Cash flow went from negative 309 million to positive 321 million to 1884 million, then to 731 million. And for 2024, Paler is expecting it to be at 900 million. So this comes out to a price to free cash flow in 20120 of negative 153, 110 for 2021, 69, just about 70 for 2022, 55 for 2023, and expected at 60 for 2024.

In fact, actually, if you look at today's trading based on the numbers that we have currently from 2023, well, the price to free cash flow today is at about 110 and then for price to sales in 2020. Well, in 20120 pound here was trading at a 40x multiple. In 2021, it was trading at a 23.7 X multiple in 2022, a 6.99 X multiple basically seven. In 2023, it was trading at a 16.7x multiple 2024.

With these numbers, it would be trading at a 19.18 x multiple Okay So we've got all that, but what don't we know? Well, the next year's right, and that's where the forecasting comes in. So let's first try forecasting with a sales multiple multiple of sales strategy. We'll say sales slowly climb down percentage wise from 16% to 9% from 2025 to 2030, and then by 2035, we were sitting at some 10 billion in sales as sales get bigger. Obviously, it's harder to keep the massive percentage rate right, so percentage ends up going down, but you're still massively increasing sales because the overall Pi is getting bigger.

Now with these estimates, what does that look like? Share price-wise how does that motivate the stock? Well, right now, Paler is pumping to a sales multiple of about2. When using Paler 2024 mid-range guidance, it's much higher if you don't use their end of thee guidance because we're kind of skipping a year just to keep things conservative. But anyways, let's say that it's at about 20 right now. Let's say multiples keep expanding in this AI Euphoria and proof of concept environment that Paler is in.

Well, then you'll have to say that price of sales multiple heats up to about 30, which again, I think is quite frankly underdoing it. Euphoria Cycles Can really really expand multiples to insane degrees? Just look at Paler in 2020, right? But anyways, at that point you're at a share price of 40 bucks a share, the same multiple in 2026, you're at 46 bucks, Then 2027 will'll say multiple start crunching a little bit and Palente sales continue expanding consistently Well, you're at 44 bucks. In 2028, you're at 49 bucks. In 2029, you're at 54 bucks and 2030, you're at 59 bucks and 2035, you're at 86 bucks.

Now, this is the chart that you could argue for if you are going to go a sales driven approach valuing Paler based on a multiple of sales. However, the problem with this approach is that Paler is going to be become much, much much more profit driven and really free cash flow driven. After just a few more years from now, it's already starting to become very cash flow driven. But but in about a year or two people aren't going to be focused so much on sales.

they're going to be focused on how much money Paler is actually able to print. So I'd Argue that using a sales multiple model to Value Paler today, maybe next year, maybe 2026 is somewhat fair, But after that you need you need to start focusing on profit and really again, cash flow. Your free cash flow is really your pure metric for measuring how much money Paler is really Printing And Pal Ander's business model is in Digital Data platforms, right? So that is very, very, very high margin. It's just you build the software, you maintain the software, you get the clients, and then all of a sudden, over the long run, your margin starts going like crazy.

Which means free cash flow to the Moon Which is why Paler free cash flow as a percentage of overall sales has been increasing massively and will likely continue to do so. Now we'll assume that will continue to happen at a constant Pace a consistent Pace until Paler is printing some 4 billion in free Cas cash flow or 40% of sales, which are great. Great numbers and certainly very possible. I Also think 10 billion in sales is conservative for 2035, so neither numbers are super crazy.

But let's just play devil's advocate here and say that this is what we're getting. Well, we'll say price to free cash flow hovers around 60 in the next four years, and then down to 55 and then by 2035 down to 50 as company matures. Now again, if you look at today's price to free cash flow ratio, we are around 100 to 110. So so that means that these numbers are very, very conservative.

They assume a substantial drop off and a regression to below the mean, which I think is more than fair. Obviously, in a dysphoria condition, you could go farther below here, but at the same time I mean we're talking about the next 10 years. we're not talking about one dysphoria cycle. So in this case, you have a share price of 28 bucks in 2025, 33 bucks in 2026, 39 bucks in 2027, 42 bucks in 2028.

And then you start seeing it stagnate around there as the company matures and sees a slower acceleration of free cash flow. And then by 2035 you're at about 85 to 86 bucks a share, which funny enough, comes out to about the same number as it did with the sales multiple number. Now, there's also a problem with this analysis. While it is a pretty solid one for a low Baseline for paler stock, it is really far, far too conservative on several metrics.

Whether you're talking the growth of free cash flow, the growth of Revenue, or even the multiple I think it's way way too conservative. It's ignoring history, which shows that the biggest winners tend to get the biggest multiple expansion and the biggest winners tend to get the biggest share of the market. So what are my estimates for Paler Stock? Well, I believe that price to free cash flow is going to be way higher than 60. Again, today, it is even higher.

I mean it's at 100 to 110, right? N Vda is at 97 and it's a much much larger company. And so at 60, you're really undershooting Pltr and just reverting it to a super super low mean which I think is far too conservative. Hener goes back and forth from dysphoria to Euphoria cycles and during Euphoria Cycles you better bet she's going to get much much higher than the mean just by definition. So if I was going to make my argument for Paler stocks highs over the coming years, what price you can get to, Well, I would use a multiple consistent with today's multiple.

We'll say 110 and then level down to 105 and then 95 I'd increase sales a bit in the coming years. I'd also increase positive cash flow as a percentage of Revenue buy a bit and make it more realistic, realistic, and less conservative. This would result in a 2025 share price at 51 bucks, a 2026 share price at 60 bucks, a 2027 share price at 69 bucks 2028 share price at nearly 78 bucks 2029 share price at nearly 86 bucks, a 2030 share price at 95 bucks and then going out to 2035 put you at 224 bucks about 225 bucks Using this methodology. Now, what does all this mean in effect? Are these forecasts guarantees that each year is going to hit each number? No, but it.

Paints the overall trend trajectory when attaching the share price to the real metrics in free cash flow and revenue growth. What does that mean for medium to long-term trading? Well, it means that if you agree with this thesis, then between now in 2025, you have more than a double left as markets catch up after a few years of Bloodshed and then recovery. More so than that, Paler traded at 45 at highs in 2021, and at that time people said no, Paler will never go back here ever again. Paler is only trading this High because interest rates are low and everyone is gambling on stocks.

They said Paler deserved a valuation at five to six bucks, even lower in a normal Market condition. Well, guess what? Today Paler is trading at nearly 4X those lows and continuing to head upward despite the fact that interest rates are at decade highs. Multi-decade highs actually. And despite what the naysayers and the haters and the short sellers said over and over again, when Pal is trading at a fourth of today's prices, Well, despite that, Paler underlying business is far far more successful today than it was in the beginning of 2021.

So for the folks who have been relentlessly Short Selling Paler all the way up I Would think twice now back in September 2022, when Paler was trading in the $7 range I made a case for buying it and we had a lot of contrarian opinions about Paler at that price. By the way, we support contrarian opinions in the comment section I'm just using these as a interesting case study. One person called Paler Junk, another said not again with Paler Investment I Lost with Paler. Shame on them the second time is shame on me.

No thanks. No Paler quote, It's a trap. Paler is not the one cracks me up how many people still buy the stock I'll wait cuz Paler should have made most of y'all Millions By now, Paler is still not too cheap compared to many other stocks that are decimated in the market. I'm kind of wanting High Forest to buy blah blah blah.

In the words of Alex K people that are looking to profit from their investment should look elsewhere. Basically, that squirly piece of shite believes only he should make money seen as he's a genius or something. Now again, contrarian opinions are encouraged here. and I don't mean to say anything negative about viewers that had a different opinion, but at the end of the day, this is a very, very interesting case study and a very important lesson in a bear cycle.

People lose faith in every company and start thinking from a preservation standpoint instead of a growth standpoint. but during a bare cycle, during a massive correction, that's the best time to buy, buy, buy, and accumulate good deals. But sadly, culture and human psychology forces people to miss the forest for the trees they think. Oh, if if I bought Paler at 15 or 18, or 20, or even 25, and Paler is going up to 80.

But then the next year you get a massive growth crash as you have unprecedented interest rate hikes, Well, that means I'm going to lose money in the short term. so Paler must not be a good deal at any price anymore. But of course that is very very very, very short-term bias. If you're playing Paler as a long-term play, well, you should be super excited every time she dips, and as long as she's well below where you think she can climb, you should be excited to accumulate.

Of course, if you're a short-term Trader and you're trying to trade off the momentum, that is great as well. But but in that situation, you have to be locking in your profits before any massive dip. Which means you have a stop loss that activates at 5% down 10% down. The people that get screwed in these types of stocks are the ones that have neither.

They have neither a long-term mindset and a belief in the company, nor do they have a short-term momentum riding, risk, profit taking, and managing point of view. My suggestion have one of those, if not both of those, because Paler has a lot of opportunities coming up over the coming years. Anyways, folks, have a great rest of your day. Make sure to hit that ravishing like button and subscribe.

Let us know what you think about Paler stock down below. Where do you see it going? Have a good one folks. We'll see you in the next video.