So checking my phone, Pilot here is currently trading at 26 billion dollars. That's a far cry from the one trillion dollar price tag I Put on it back in November 2020. now if you stay till the end of this video, I'll explain exactly what needs to happen for Palantir to actually hit that one trillion dollar market cap. That's not a joke, that's not clickbait.

That's what I Honestly believe in now, as always, don't click nothing. Don't smash nothing. Don't buy nothing. Just listen now.

I want to talk about a few things that are related to Palantir because over the past few days naturally, there's been a lot of hoopla over Palantir. The stock has gone through a absolute Rampage a tear and it's on everybody's Minds people are talking about it Kathy Wood is buying back and Chicken Genius is selling. A lot of people are talking about it now. I was the original Palantir investor who talked about it on YouTube I made my first video when it was 18 per share.

Nobody was talking about it and I immediately said I think this has one trillion dollar potential. People were laughing at me, man, then they kept laughing at me when it went to seven dollars, etc etc. Now I've never changed my position on Palantir, but here's what I want to explain to you I Made a few videos over the past few days explaining why I Think Palantir is running up too fast I'm looking at the stock price right now and it's not 100 year-to-date In fact, it's up almost 57 basically over the past month and that's Too much. You can't have a stock go up by 50 over the past couple of weeks and just say it's normal and that's okay.

Now a lot of you have been asking me this question which I want to address in this video before we go to the One trillion dollar Evaluation: Tom If you said back in November 2020 that this stock at 18 is cheap and it can go to a trillion dollars, why are you not warning us that the stock price is running up too high when it's still below your entry point, it's currently at 12 or 13 you entered at 18.. So why would you be warning us right now that it's running up so fast? When it's way below, you know, just zoom out and see that you're down big on the stock which I am. My entry point was 18, my average is around that, and I'm still down a lot on the stock. So the question is, is this a cognitive dissonance? Is this a contradiction? No.

I'll explain. Look when I was talking about Palantir I'm talking about the valuation. evaluation is based on my DCF model discounted cash flow model Valuation Now based on the DCF what we do, we essentially bring back from the future cash flows and would discount them to present values now that discount process is dependent on interest. what is the interest rates in the market? That basically gives you that discount rate, the higher the discount rate goes, the lower the value of future cash flow in present value.

That's very simple. bigger discount, lower present value. Just remember it this way now when we started doing these: DCFS back in 2020. I Just want to remind you that the interest rate was pretty much zero and we could work with a DCF discount rate of eight to ten percent.

Now currently, the rate has gone up all the way to five percent. Which means that we have to work with 12 to 14 discount rates. Which means that the present values of the future pre. Which means that the present values of the future cash flows of Volunteer are now less valuable in this interest rate environment.

That is why I'm telling you that things have changed. That is why you've seen multiples shrink. The stock market isn't accepting 40 50p anymore unless you're in video or Tesla right? So multiples of shrunk because of that. And that is why 13 In this economy and this interest rate isn't the 18 in 2020.

Now that's something you have to understand that doesn't mean that the stock isn't going to get there at some point. I Honestly believe it will. but it's just here to tell you that the current valuation of volunteer is not 13. The market absolutely changed the economy, change the macro change, The interest rates have changed, The discount rate has changed.

So if you run a DCF right now on stock MVP which is my platform. gonna put the link below. If you go and you run on our model and do a quick DCF model on valuation on Palantir, what you're going to get is you know I'm just going to do it on the app. By the way, we have an app for this so you can download it on app store or you know for your Android.

So for a ten dollar stock price, you'd need about 500 million in ebitda next year, which is far away from where they are right now. They're basically just almost broken. Even so, 500 million dollars of ebitda and an annual growth rate of 35 percent at a discount rate of 12. So assuming they hit 500 million in ebitda which is not the case this year, and assuming they're going to grow at 35 which they're not currently, it's a 10 stock.

So for me, it's a very simple analysis. I'm looking at this I'm saying well I haven't sold a single share I got in at 18 I stayed the course I bought more I'm not gonna sell it in the next 10 years I Don't care. but if I have to analyze this and look at the share price currently objectively the share price. right now with 13 dollars, it's just way too high.

Given the conditions, the stock has to grow into its valuation. now it might go to 20, 30, 40 on hype which it did already and it might not I Don't know. but if you want my honest opinion currently, it should be probably around 10 bucks and when it gives us better quality results next time and next time and next time it's going to slowly grow into a better valuation. That's how this should happen when the stock just hype and just formal and just gets ahead of its own honest valuation.

Fair market value valuation I mean it's unhealthy for the stock and I don't like it as a long-term investor because you know this isn't going to hold. Now that's about that. Now the second thing I want to talk about is the question I asked in the beginning: Is this a One trillion dollar company now? I Believe it is. but you have to understand what needs to happen for this to be a One trillion dollar company.

For this to be a One trillion dollar company, here's what needs to happen. We need to get to about 10 billion dollars of Evida. Now Ebida is very hard to get because ebitda is not revenues. I Mean just to give you a kind of a general assessment of where we at Tesla has an ebitda of about 3.5 billion dollars.

So for this company to get to one trillion dollars, we need about two and a half times of the current ebitda of Tesla. Now pilot this revenues right now is about two billion dollars a year. We're talking about 10 billion in Ibida. So which means that this thing is at least probably 10 years away.

There's no way this happens. Like realistically, optimistically, the fastest they can get to 10 billion ebitda is 10 years and that's going to be super fast. Even then it assumes a 50 to 60 annual growth rate from that point on for the next five years after that. So if you think that Palantir can hit 10 billion dollars in ebitda with a 50 to 60 growth rate, and then it's a one trillion dollar stock.

Now a lot of you will tell me in the comments: Tom There's no way in hell that this company can do these numbers and that's fine. The stock isn't for you I believe it can I Just have the patience to wait 10 years and see it happen I'm not in a hurry anywhere now. A lot of you may not have that time and that's fine. now.

A lot of you have asked me what this thing is because you saw it on my desk in the last video and it's not a sponsored video or anything. This is a Ridge Wallet. This is the best wallet I ever had my life. It has a money clip and it has places for credit cards.

It's been around the world with me everywhere. I Go. It fell off a roller coaster and got hit by a car. It doesn't have a scratch on it.

This thing is the best wallet ever had. Shout out to Rich it's not a sponsored video I Don't know. these guys never spoke to them. Amazing wallet.

You should get it. and yeah, shout out to them! Ridge is the palantir of wallets I'll see you in the next video.