Palantir Q4 Earnings LIVE (Co-Hosted by Sasha Yanshin)

Welcome everybody we're starting a bit early today. Uh sasha is about to join us in just literally a minute. Here we go. Hey we're live, we're live we're live.

Let's do this raw, no prep work whatsoever, professionalism, yeah, i literally just just saw them. I was. I was analyzing fiverr all morning because the results there are really interesting in a different way in a different way, exactly in a different way. So send me the link in the in private chat and i'll pull it up on the screen.

Since you can share screen or you can share screen - and i approve it, you know you can share screens from from here. I just i just sent it to you. Good good, good, welcome everybody step right in. We haven't officially started yet the reason we jumped uh jumped in early.

I, i guess that's the preview right sasha. They haven't published that the full thing yet right, um, i haven't haven't looked, i mean it's got the tables further down. Yeah, it's! It has everything we need pretty much. Let me have a look yeah, so let me pull it up on the screen.

Can you see it yeah? The full thing is up i'll, send that to you as well. Okay. So, let's start with the highlights. First, that's how i think it would be the best way to do it and then once we go through the highlights right, then we're gon na go through the more detailed stuff.

So we we go over everything before before the actual call. How about that? So that's good yeah. I've got the presentation as well everything i've got everything you want to start with. The highlights you want to go start going over the highlights.

Oh they've changed the presentation, design man. This is no longer got as much black in it. No more black once you go, i'm used to knowing which slide has what on it. I'm gon na have to look at all all of it from scratch.

Again all right um. Should we look at the high level numbers yep? Let's go you, can you can kick it off all right, so uh, look, i'm just say: do you want to do it, let's go down, do it? Do it scroll down to the p l? Where wait, i i think you've got my voice on it twice. No uh, i hear you fine, it's coming through my headphones. I think it's drooping okay hold on they're, saying my mic is much louder than yours hold on.

Let's fix it for a second! So, first of all, let's fix the audio. Can you turn on the stream on your end and okay? So let let us know if right now the audio is a little bit more equal from my end and sasha's end. Can you speak a little bit? You say something so they can check that the sound is coming out clean yeah on both sides. It's all good, it's so good.

I just fixed a few things all right, also so, on the p now um, the number. The numbers are good and bad in different ways, so i think, like the thing that people are really beginning to point out is government revenue is significantly kind of dropping in relative terms, not dropping, but it's down. Where was it? It's like 24 20, something percent yeah um, total revenue grew 34, which is kind of like so right. It's not maybe as uh ambitious, but they haven't missed on the revenue right sasha like we expected 1.5.
I don't think they missed uh on the total revenue. I think the problem people have is because government revenue is the cornerstone of the business and they're not showing at the moment like massive movements. Uh through, i haven't looked through the presentation, so maybe there's gon na be some interesting stuff on there in there about that. But uh, but we're seeing the government drop and that's the thing.

One interesting thing is um. I don't know if you notice, i just really quickly saw rnd is 84 million, which is wait a sec. What was it before? That's a drop right. That's a significant drop! The last time they had r d at that level was in march 2020.

That's a big drop from recent quarters on r d spend so that's interesting, um. Potentially, i think uh. The one thing i will take away from this before you continue. I want you to lead this.

Obviously, i just want to say that the two numbers i was looking for sasha is the revenue i said 1.5 and i said free cash flow 450., so they're a little bit higher on the revenue than i thought and a little bit lower at 424 in the Free cash flow, but pretty much on par with what i expected. It's close it's closed. I think i think people are really reacting because i think free cash flow at this stage is kind of like neither here nor theirs like yeah kind of fun and games, but because you know for for a company that is probably several years pre-profit, it probably isn't The biggest differentiator, it's kind of like you, know, growing the the business at this stage and i think so revenue definitely is it's kind of it's there, but i think i think people are wary of the fact i'm just looking through the the rest of the financial. I think people are wary because the rest of financials look, absolutely fine.

Total assets seem like okay, i'm just trying to compare to what what they were before quickly. I'm not i'm not seeing anything necessarily jump out at me. There's they've added a bunch of uh short-term papers to the balance sheet in the last year. I can't remember i, don't i don't i don't.

I think that was last quarter. They started adding to that um short-term securities and but they've added a little bit more to that. I'm not really seeing anything really jump out necessarily other than that drop. Perhaps it's in the presentation where the issues are uh that people are reacting to because i'm seeing like like what's something about, there's no um, there's no yeah, there's no debt issues, i'm not seeing kind of what people are reacting minus temp.

I mean at the moment it kind of seems like you, whatever the results you publish, you either have to go up 10 to 20 or you have to drop 10 to 20 percent uh. It's one of those two and there's no other option um so um. Shall we go through the presentation and see if there's stuff in there, because i think it's the gon na be the the drops and customer numbers government? Let's go and things like that. Yeah um one moment i'll pull off i'll pull up the presentation.
Uh one hold on a second just want to say a huge shout out and thank you to everybody showing up. We started a little bit early, but i promise to you that we'll start as soon as the numbers come out. Sasha was literally refreshing for the past. Two hours so the minute it popped out.

I think i think they came out a bit earlier before i found them because i was busy. I think i was late, but i think we're the first ones with it uh on the internet right now. I don't think anybody has it yet. I was busy doing the five numbers.

Oh man, that those numbers are so interesting. That's a whole separate conversation. Okay, so i have it on my second screen. So i'm going to scroll down uh.

Let's start with this one. What we've got q4 results? Let me put you because i'm looking away, i've got too many screens as well all right so 34 revenue growth and 26. They improved government revenue growth from 22 to 26 right sasha commercial revenue growth. The government continues to be below average.

So the government continues to be lagging behind commercials and it's getting better, though didn't they have like 22 in q3. I can't remember, i don't know, i think that 22 and i think commercial revenue growth. Also, it's all improving. Actually, to be honest, i i i think i think it's it's just the sort of the season that we're in at the moment, where financials have to either be really good or really like the swings are insane.

We have large stocks, we have like top 10 stocks swinging by 26 on the day of release, right yeah, where there isn't really necessarily grounds for that. Much thing i mean, like you, know, numbers slowing down or something like that, but i think these are good numbers. Look if you look at the annual numbers, they're, actually quite impressive, 41 revenue growth, which is above guidance, they got it for 30. They did 41 government grew 47 year-over-year commercial 34 year-over-year.

They had uh adjusted operating income 473 420, which i think is kind of a funny number for adjusted free cash flow and uh they're they're, maintaining gross margin 80, which is kind of a sas gold standard of the numbers, seem good to me. To be honest, if i look at it well, i'm trying i'm not one to blow smoke on people's ass. You know i'm very critical when needed. I mean the numbers are kind of like they're kind of like regular right, i'm kind of looking at them, saying like i'm, not seeing anything.

That is spectacularly way above my expectations, i'm not seeing like other than the government revenue, i'm like by the way the stock is down nine percent in pre-market yeah. That's that that's the one like the five results like there was an uptick in the revenue, but actually some of the other metrics and the guidance is down it's up. Ten percent and i'm like it should be down like what are you guys doing? Uh everything is reversed. Uh, it's kind of it was just people are people are very, very reactive.
I think i think the one thing that we, even though we we may not know like where the mug is going to go. The one thing we know is, it is extremely volatile out there. People are very edgy like people really, i think it's a algo driven a lot of these is algo driven in pre-market. I don't think pre-market is driven that much by algos.

It's like it's. You know like, like the big algos, don't really play pre-market much, i mean like okay, let's keep going over the numbers, let's get going yeah, i'm just comparing i'm just comparing what we're talking to last uh last quarter's numbers and i'm like i'm, not seeing anything jump Out at me, like u.s, commercial revenue is up 102, so it's dropped from what it was last last time around uh, because last time around it was like commercial revenue went up. What was it uh? You think it's kind of the by the rumor sell the news situation when everybody's selling, the good news sort of - maybe i'm looking at, like literally all the numbers. So q3 us commercial revenue up 103.

This quarter 102 overall revenue growth last time, so commercial customer count grew 46 last time around, but it's a beat across the board. Is it not did they? They beat everything uh. I think it's basically kind of roughly on par, like like commercial revenue, growth. 34 last quarter was 36 percent, it's kind of like it's in the ballpark.

It's like it's kind of where you would expect it to be. If you just opened it and just had to guess all these numbers you'll be kind of close to it, and i'm trying to see like if, if i can just pinpoint exactly where this issue is so they've got some interesting new slides about the tam and some Other stuff, i'm just not so on the town, it's kind of interesting kind of highlighting the fact they potentially like have unique products that don't have okay. So i'm looking at it right now, so i'm going to change the screen a little bit just so i can show you the summary and then we'll go back, we'll go back to the to the presentation. So hang on a second guys.

I want you to see the sasha. I want your reaction to this as well uh, which is very interesting, so uh. Let me know if you can see the screen right now. Can you see it no still the same one? No, no, they don't have slide numbers in the presentation.

This is so frustrating it's a it's kind of this new walk thing. You don't put slide numbers okay. So where is this? This is the one check it out: sash uh. Basically, this is kind of the recap of this whole thing right, so palantir technologies grew revenue more quickly than anticipated and in its latest latest quarter, although earnings per share fell short of expectations, the stockholders per share, who cares if it's two cents or three cents, it's Like literally the most irrelevant metric, yeah valentine earned two cents, a share down from three cents: a share a year earlier analyst struck by expecting four cents, so people expect yeah.
Okay, it's literally completely irrelevant and it's like it's like saying: well, they beat revenue, look volunteer revenue 432 expecting 418., so they beat revenues. Well, it's close right. They beat it. No, no, they beat it from the expectations was 418.

They did 432 in in revenue, so they beat revenue. Growth is faster than anticipated. Well, i'm not sure, i'm not sure who really anticipated for it, like i think like like, like all the numbers seem to continue. If you look at slide 14, if you can see the slides numbers at the top yeah before i look at slide 14, i just want to show you something which is kind of the indica indicative of of uh hold on we're.

Currently, at negative eight point: twenty three percent below thirteen dollars per share. Oh my goodness, this is this is uh some serious stuff. Okay, let's go back to the slides uh because we have a lot to cover here; okay, so back to the slide. Okay! So look at slide 19 uh at the top just slightly slide down.

Yeah. Okay slide. 19.. I think this is what people uh it's.

Obviously, government revenue is still the primary thing. I haven't looked through the sec to get the details on the government. Commercial split. That's usually an sec filing, but look at that like, i think i think people are going to say well, that has been the underpinning.

You haven't proven the commercial business model just yet there's a small number of very large clients like in the airline space and some other space spaces that that are using you, but this this side of the business kind of like it's really slowing down. Reason like really quite fast right, so these guys, unlike some of the btc uh companies, do not have that covet spike, which would explain that 76 76 percent um. So so. This is like very much in in the opinion.

I think of a lot of analysts, and probably rightly so, like a very a slow down in the government spending and the potential issue here is we have midterms coming up in the us right yeah. We have through we're two years out. So if we get into a situation where, like administration changes, there's a different kind of like it's possible that the direction will like you'll go in a different direction, i mean it's possible, but why do you think this is? This is a alarming for people. I think it's it's good growth um.

What? What? Because it's slowing down the slowdown? The slowdown is very rapid, so is it like yeah, there's a glass ceiling to the government's stuff right, sure exactly uh, exactly partially self-imposed but yeah, but if it looks like okay, yeah partially self-imposed, that's true with them not working with anybody like china stuff like that. But i mean we always talked about the commercial being the one where there's unlimited time. There's so many government contracts you can get yeah well, commercial is on site 14. The commercial looks like all right.
I think what i'm trying to find look. I think it's better than it's u.s commercial, 72 to 132. It it's it's real! It's relative, though right, but the customer numbers. I think it was 60 in the q3 bro customer count on the commercial side.

This is where this is the future, not the government side. I've been saying this for for months, 17, clients, f, 2020 end of 2021 371 growth in client count. You know, you know, you know what i don't like on this. The this new presentation does not have remaining deal value in it at all, they've removed it.

How it's at least like 3.5 billion it has to be so it was 3.6 billion last time, but the problem is, it was accelerating for several quarters and then last two quarters it slowed down and then i think last quarter was basically flat and didn't go up And they've now removed it from the presentation, and that was one of the first numbers that i always look at in these presentations and for me: okay, let's go slide by slide and try to figure out what we have here. Okay, let's go back to the top and let's go slide by slide. So first of all, i'll kind of uh talk us through it and then you jump in with your insights, because you're here is the is the brain of this operation. So q4 results total revenue, growth you're in the analyst come on total revenue, growth, 34 government revenue, growth, 26, commercial revenue, growth, 47 uh in the us, obviously, which is the biggest growth engine 132 percent u.s commercial revenue growth, which is, i think, where the future is For the company and and then we have a margins at 80, which is normal for this company as far as the annualization of what we just saw.

Uh revenue growth above expectations above guidance guidance, was 30 percent cagr 41. This year, government growth, 47 commercial growth. 34. That's largely right because of row pretty much being zero.

I mean this is like when you see a hundred percent, the us and 34 global. That means i mean there's. Self-Imposed limitations are holding them back on the on the rrw and the commercial side. Uh.

You can see obviously the free cash flow, which is what i was looking for. At 450, they did 4.24 um as far as free cash flow margin, 28 insanely impressive, in my opinion, um now i don't know. If i i'm not that important. Well, it's like 14.

The one that we're talking about about the commercial revenue that was u.s commercial revenue numbers not totally yeah us u.s commercial numbers. So this is what this is the slide. That was actually you. I don't know if you saw my video, but i was talking about what i'm excited about to see.
I i said client concentration. I was like hyper hyper focusing so i said. Client growth there's two little clients, so they grew uh this year, 71 client count. So up from 139 clients last year to 237 class this year, 71 client growth.

You happy with that. I'm happy with the customer growth. I am trying to figure out. I i am i'm in their sec filings.

I can't see anything on outstanding deal, value or id iq awards or anything. Do they have anything about client concentration? Have you seen it about client cons? That's the one i'm also focused on. I haven't got that far down, yet okay i'll keep going, and you look if you see anything else because we're doing this on the fly guys we haven't seen this. We just raw reaction so bear with us we're just trying to figure out with you together.

We're kind of you know suffering together through this, so uh the commercial momentum, commercial revenue growth year over year, we're talking about uh. Here you can see the increase you can see like in the government section. It's like a glass ceiling, so it's evening out towards zero. With commercial growth, you actually see the opposite trend right: 19.

28. 37 to 47. I believe this is like global, not just us unless they're mistaken, so you can see, like my theory of government versus commercial government being basically capped and commercial is basically the growth engine. So you can see that they've increased from 19 to 47 percent commercial growth quarterly and i think it's that's a pretty interesting method.

Look 200 commercial customer growth in the year. That's pretty impressive! I mean you can't you can't say anything about that and we have u.s commercial momentum, which is obviously driving this whole thing because of their self-imposed restrictions, but there's plenty of tam in the u.s market on its own, especially in the large business sector. My chair, just it just they collapsed on me, my chair is literally buckling under on my own weight. It's all that muscle you've been building, it's not muscle, my guy, it's not muscle, it's not muscle at all.

I can guarantee you that there is literally zero muscle. So what do you think about the the fact that do you think that at some point, they'll have to release these self-imposed restrictions and kind of uh allow themselves to go a little bit more on the row side, more aggressively um? I i don't think they necessarily have to. I think i think it's more on. I think the bigger move for them really is to um try to adjust their platforms to the smaller size companies uh for companies that maybe so at the moment.

I think the cost of entry and the like the the way that i think that they work with the businesses is such that you have to be pretty large and commit a lot of time and money to work with this. Have you seen this slide? This is really interesting. We've been talking about this by the way shout out to the 3 300 people here with us live watching this there's 33 nerds here, and so this is quite interesting. We've been talking about this all year, the u.s commercial sales headcount right.
So this is like, where you see in the fact that alex carpenter - that's the kevin warst interview, basically materializing in a slide right, so we're hiring sales people to actually do some sales, because we can. We can no longer be engineers anymore right right. We have to actually sell this yeah. Well, i think i i think the the platform needs to become a lot more like tool style, uh to attract the smaller size, businesses and a lot less sort of consulting style right, so it needs to be.

It needs to be more automated. It needs to be more easier, integratable uh in some shape, because otherwise otherwise scale scaling scaling like what we're going to have is going to have the same issues with the government, where you're going to run into a ceiling where there's only so many of these large Caps that because because you have to have a very particular large cap company to want to use the software right, you're not going to go and and get the apples facebooks and using software, so you have to have this sort of like company. That is maybe a bit old, maybe like a bit outdated. Maybe is not that good at analytics, uh, maybe doesn't have particularly good internal systems where it makes a lot of sense for them to try like maybe in an industry which has been battered recently as well.

Airlines, a particularly good example yeah, so those companies are naturally great fit, but they're also, they also have a ceiling where their commercials are only so good and there's only so many of them around and eventually like they're, either gon na die or like do you know, Potentially develop their own as well, so so you have this window, so they're gon na have to go broader in order. I think in order to grow and you're gon na have the same kind of issue where that 130 or whatever u.s commercial client growth 140. Whatever it is by the way, if you know what's going to help what we saw this morning, airbus completely blew revenues out of the water. Airbus had a phenomenal quarter.

Bro i mean i i'm guessing foundry and skywise has anything to do with this. Given the fact that they've caught a production time for the a350 by 33 percent, i'm guessing uh, it's going to be a great catalyst for for palantir airbus success is, is they're their ambassadors. You know um. I think the people in the comments misunderstood what what i'm saying i i i'm saying that apples, facebooks and googles are not going to be using palantir software.

That's that's kind of the point i'm making, but anyway gross margins. I mean why would they put this in the slide? Sash i mean who cares about gross margin for a software company? It's always going to be 80. I mean, what's the point of showing this, i'm not sure why it has its own slide. I mean, like sure, show it like it's always 80 for your first us business yeah.
Well, it depends. I mean it depends right. There's um, there are some that run at 60. There's i mean there's different ones depends depends on a lot of factors by the way james is saying.

Cnbc headline reads: volunteer misses earnings by two cents; oh, my goodness. This fudd, i mean tesla and volunteer, are getting so much fun. Bro on cnbc, so they're doing an analysis of a formula. One car and you know somebody releases one.

Can you look at it? You go it's red. I don't think it's gon na. Be that fast red is no longer a fast. It used to be a fast color, but i'm not it's just like it's an irrelevant metric on this scale right, it's kind of like.

Oh, oh, look, uh pop palance's presentation. It has less black. That's a bearish sign. That is a really bearish sign.

I'm like well like so like it's just when a company is losing it's basically breaking even us and losing money intentionally by reinvesting well like who cares they could they could have like spent a little bit less or hired one, less guy or whatever one less senior? Guy and it would have been three cents instead of two cents like it's just completely pointless um. I always i always find it amusing when people who work in the financial space just focus on things that you just look at it like it's irrelevant. Who cares? Oh man, okay, so you want to move on yeah yeah. Let's move on, i'm just still baffled.

I'm trying to find what the actual kind of drive is that there's no way that actual people are selling, because they've got two cents versus three cents, and i think it's the government drop it. But it looks like based on the trajectory of the government versus commercial somewhere in q3 q4 this year. It is possible that the way can you see the slices. What is the bottom line? I'm not following this slide, so the upper line is the adjusted operating margin, excluding sbc and related employee taxes.

So, like kind of the real one right, i'm trying right say, gap operation just operating so so so so the the kind of showing that they've been reporting consistently sort of their adjusted version where they strip out stuff, they feel is like not not relevant. They've been reporting consistently 30 and they kind of show. This is an interesting chart right, they're kind of showing look the gap version sort of like the accounting standards version is heading towards that 30. So this is sort of like an indication that you know give us three years or something and and that's where it's heading, that's where it's going uh, because our reporting has been very consistent and you can see that that the two are merging.
So so i think that's an interesting slide, because that is indicating that look. This is where we expect to be, and this is where we think we're definitely going to be in three four years time or so, based on kind of the scale like. I think it's an interesting chart, you know what they noticed. Us is like a lot of people misunderstand the s, the stock based comp thing.

So they look at this chart and this chart is really important, guys pay attention, so this chart shows the operating margin. The operating margin means that kind of effect how effective the company is running, because it includes pretty much all the important expenses before the accountants start to middle in with the non-cash flow stuff. So this is essentially as like a 30 cents on a dollar company which is pretty good um. Actually, that's very good, especially they have a lot of employees right, yeah, expensive employees and a lot of overhead uh and a lot of r d.

But the actual reported numbers are much lower, that's the gray line you see below and but that's not cash flow, the stock-based comp, which is they're something they're adding to the operating expenses. It's not cash flow. It's when it's stock based comp being it's an accounting item. So, as far as cash flow, wise they're, making 30 cents in the dollar, i think that's why they're showing you a 424 adjusted free cash flow at the end of the year, they did make 420 million of of uh free cash flow this year, because, like sbc Stock based companies not cash, they don't spending money, it's kind of a fake expense, so to speak.

Yeah. I think i think, for me the biggest the biggest problem in this whole presentation and in the numbers is the thing that that's missing, which is the outstanding deal value, because yeah there's a reason why it's not there and that reason is probably because it's dropped uh. So so they're collecting the stuff they've already sold but and they're all obviously signing up new clients. But the question is how like, i'm not seeing in the sec filing that i'm looking at like those big breakdowns they used to have like? Maybe there's going to be like a different, a different more in depth.

There will be what is this one? This is 8k okay, so there's going to be like a more in-depth one, probably at some point um. So i'm just not seeing that kind of breakdown. All the details of splits by different like types of customers, blah blah whatever so so, i'm looking at i'm kind of saying well, the problem is potentially you're signing up customers that maybe aren't driving the same levels of revenue, um or the same term. So i think it was 3.8 years or something last time around, so it's like 3.6 billion outstanding over almost four years and the question is going to be.

If that number is dropped, then analysts are going to really freak right because they're going to say well we're not seeing the the drop yet we're seeing the slow down, which is like the initial phase. But if that number drops, then people are like - oh my god that, like so the inflection point is being passed, which is it's possible that maybe it has they. We can have another inflection point upwards if they fix if they improve the software for smaller companies. Uh.
Absolutely no reason why that can't happen, but the potential issue here is that, like, if you stop reporting on this big number, that was reported in big big, the biggest font on in the whole presentation before, like that's a problem for me, uh hold on they're telling Us that we have the remaining deal flow in the remarks. If it's in the remarks we're going to pause the presentation for a second thank you for letting us know, whoever put it in the on the chat. We appreciate it. I'm going to go back to the remarks section and try to find it hold on, and i think that this should be 3.6.

Oh yeah. Oh so it didn't grow. It stayed kind of the same so flat. So that's does it have the the term? Does anyone know if they've posted the term, because i'm guessing the term so the term's not in there, so i'm guessing the term drops from the 3.8, so it's flat, which is not good for a company that is growing right as in like if the company is Growing you'd expect the future deal value to also be growing at a rate that should be with the way you expect future growth to be so, if the current so, for example, like at the moment, if they're growing, 35, whatever percent, but the deal value, is staying Flat, that is an indicator that future growth is gon na, is going to slow down and potentially go negative right because you're collecting that future value.

So it's like it's becoming less and less as a percentage of your current revenue per quarter. So that's that. That's definitely a downside that it's like that's, probably why it's not a presentation and there's no term right, so there's 3.6 billion uh and last time around it was 3.6 right yeah. It's it kind of stayed yeah.

What do you think about the guidance here? Q1. 2022. Look at the guidance well like limited growth from like quarter on quarter um. Is that like what is it? What is it uh year and year uh? It was one second for all the people who are complaining in the chat, guys we're doing this on the fly with you.

We haven't seen this, so we have to run the stream. Keep you all engaged, do the graphics and go through this presentation. So i'm sorry if we missed some things, everybody's saying page, seven page seven, we got it so just bear with us we're doing this on the fly. So you guys get it immediately so chill it's 30 uh year on year, but the the quarter on quarter.

So it's 30 percent up uh guidance which is lower than what they're currently so it's continuing that sort of like down trajectory in the growth uh, which is not ideal right um, but they retain the 30, the 30 for this they're saying 30 again, even though they Keep building that 30 every time. Well, they are, but the problem is they're, saying 30, but the numbers are sort of coming down towards 30 right every single quarter, and so the problem is going to be well like, like. Are you sure, because we're you're telling me that q1 2022 is dropping down to 30., so you're going to need to and the outstanding deal value is now flat which in real terms means reduction uh of future future earnings? So so the indication here is like there isn't, like the data, is not backing that you're going to be growing at 30 a year through to 2025, unless you launch something like brand new or like have a new tangent on which you're going to go. So i like, i would, i would understand why analysts can look at saying.
Well, i'm not sure i have the confidence in that 30 year on year. Growth number, because the current data in the current stuff doesn't support it right. What the what the hell is page. Seven, what why everybody saying page seven, what does that mean? No, it's not that and that's definitely not not in the slide.

Can you guys explain to us? What do you mean by page seven? I don't know what page seven is in this sense. Maybe it's is it. Let me have a look at the other page, seven there's some there's a few different documents. Uh.

Let me look at the sec filing page, seven. Okay, let me go over the numbers. While you look for what the hell is page. Seven um remarks page seven: okay, while you go through and find it sash, i'm gon na go over the numbers here, yep, so uh.

This is basically what we expected when you find it. Just uh put it in private chat and i'll put it up on the screen. Yes, we hear you guys we'll hear you we're going to put it on the screen in a second relax. Um people, not very forgiving uh with this like live streaming, is really hard, especially when you're pulling up.

We didn't have any prep time. We just went live immediately, so 422 million adjusted free cash flow, that's at 28 cents on the dollar cash flow. I think that's impressive, pretty much on par with expectations. Um, okay, gross profit, 1.2 billion look stock based comp slashed by half.

Will people be finally happy with this going down from 140 million to 68 million? Is this the end of the stock based comp er whining? I mean that's pretty significant yeah yeah, well, that's probably partly what's driving down the drop in r d spent, potentially as well yeah um that we're seeing uh, maybe maybe they've, just like done a bunch of hiring earlier in the year - that's possible! I don't know. I haven't read this: okay, let's go through the remarks. I'm going to start the remarks right now. We start with page seven as you all requested relax, and then we go through the uh.

The entire remarks and we're do we're doing this as fast as we can bear with us. Okay, so hold on. Can we see i'm going to make it a little bit larger, and so you can actually see what the hell is going on, because i know some people are on mobile 3.8 billion saying in the remarks: yeah. Okay, so let's go through this together.
Can you guys see it on the screen we're trying to accommodate people on mobile as well um and shout out to the 4 200 people in the stream with us and we're just waiting for alex to start his conference call soon um. We probably have some time for that yeah soon as soon as the relative third, like in an hour and 10 minutes yeah, i think okay, so, okay, ah contract duration, dropped three three and a half years right. So, that's that that's that's the issue, so 3.8 billion is marginally up on the 3.6 billion yeah. So so this the growth there is slowing.

So they grew 300 million in the quarter right so from 3.5 3.6 to 3.8 yeah um, but annually they grew right. 35. Sorry annually they did grow 35 they'll flow 35 yeah, but but i think, but i think it was three point eight years or something right, so the average contract duration has dropped and i think that idiq number, the 2.8 billion um is higher as a percentage. So it's kind of good in a way because these are just the ongoing like army.

Essentially, they kind of stopped reporting. That number, for i kind of like two or three quarters um and then and it's here again, but that kind of means that everything else all the commercial stuff is very much driven by sort of the short-term sales. And you know that does not necessarily have a long outlook, so it's only got one billion uh of everything that isn't um uh on the indefinite delivery. Indefinite quantity idiq awards uh, which is primarily going to be like u.s military uh, stuff um.

So so that's not necessarily that's not like it's kind of good in that that they have that in the bank and that money is coming, but now that they are posting like over 400 million a quarter revenues. Suddenly you go and take these numbers and you're like okay. Well, the sum of them is right about a billion a year, so suddenly, like the sales pipeline, is drying up right because they need to be selling a lot more in order to continue that growth before exactly before, when that growth in the outstanding deal value was Far outpacing the current you like a year ago or a year and a half ago, you could be saying: well you can you can see that the future growth is here. You can see the numbers that just haven't come through to the pnl.

Yet and now we have the opposite of that um, but by the way we have our friends from brighton beach. For those of you who don't know brighton beach is the biggest russian community outside of russia, it's kind of a meme, so love from brighton beach, i'm assuming adam, you must be russian for otherwise you didn't know this sasha is great. I agree. Thank you for the generous donation.
Sasha does not speak russian. He only speaks swahili and conversational spanish. I'm kidding, of course, he's russian. Thank you for this donation.

We really really appreciate it um, so you want to go over the remarks or do you want to do this? Yeah sure? Should we just read, read it from the start, because i'm presuming this is going to be the basis for the talk uh in in the call so uh knowledge there generally one point: five, four: five: four billion revenue in 2021. So so the significance here is that the 1.454 billion is like a third higher than what they have. Oh no well, these people would save me anyway. Absolutely i thought it was.

I thought it was funny it's about a third higher than the outstanding deal by uh. Previously, it was the other way around where the outstanding deal value for the next few years was significantly higher than the current annual revenue. So if we kind of look even look 12 months back so that means there's going to be pressure on the sales funnel so potential. So i'm guessing they're going to be investing a lot in product and sales to try to to to push that.

Otherwise, we're going to be seeing a significant slowdown over the next few quarters, commercial or overall commercial revenue, growth accelerated each quarter, resulting in 47, year-on-year growth in the fourth quarter, um, which is which is great, so commercial, is growing. All of that growth coming from u.s commercial um - i think i think non-us commercial is - is growing at the 30 40 mark, so it's still growing, but significantly below the 100 plus percent of the u.s stuff is growing. Um. The us commercial business generates more than 200 million dollars in annual revenue doubling for a second year in a row.

So it's good that it's doubling yeah, but it's going to be several years, even at this rate before it matches what the government uh revenue is doing. The government revenue is slowing down, so i guess the big question is like like: can they accept when you're already growing a triple digit percentages per year? Can you accelerate that even more uh, because that's that's hard enough right um, because if you don't accelerate it even more, then we're going to be seeing a slow down on overall growth over the next 24 months. Um! That's going to be the potential risk factor here of a parent here, let's go down. I wan na before we continue uh uh highlight the comment here, which i thought was uh actually uh specific visual appreciate it uh.

I just want to highlight this uh comment, which i think is kind of funny. Uh everyone say bye, bye, money, bye, bye, uh yeah, you shouldn't be investing in this talk. If you i mean that's just you know i'm all i can tell you is that if that's kind of the attitude that it's probably not the right stock for you uh also adam, is with another donation of ten dollars come on man, i was showing respect. I have over 20k shares in palantir, keep it classy, i'm not trolling.
You keep personal feelings aside. What no? We we nothing but love uh. There must be a misunderstanding. We really appreciated the comment.

It wasn't a yeah, it wasn't directed to you. I think it was directed to another guy who said something about safe moon or something i don't know yeah yeah adam no issues at all. We absolutely love you and appreciate you uh. Okay, let's keep going much love, yeah, um.

Okay, let me make another starter 2017. With 17 us commercial customers ended with 80 commercial customers. So that's that's. Really good uh it'd be interesting to see further down.

They say anything about what the nature of these commercial customers is because listen numbers is great, but if they're not translating into revenue, potentially maybe they're, not necessarily the right kind of customers, but but balance here also, this is important if you um look back to how They started working with likes of airbus and other companies in in the past um. They they have a very long lead time on revenue generation from companies. So even i think, like they've, had like one of presentations in their annual uh presentations before where they said. We like spending a few quarters kind of like getting to know the business, getting to really understand them, and then we begin turning the money funnel on and so potentially we have if these customers, the 63 customers they've added to the 17, if they're of the same Profile that uh as what they were doing before, potentially that could be a good sign uh if, if it's following that trend isn't like sure we acquired all of them, but we just haven't started raking in the money from them.

Yet, however, having said that, the q1 outlook is relatively like mild quarter on quarter growth, so if that is the case, then they're certainly not expecting the money to come through in the next three months, either um all right by the way. We have this comment here. I i what your take on this sash uh. We have this comment.

The bottom line is from david bottom line, they're growing the customer base. That is a key metric, yeah yeah. We just need to understand if they're definitely the right sort of customers. I'm presuming there must be, but uh the the revenue numbers are not supporting it just yet by the way.

Thank you, jason for the donation, i'm certain for the thousandth time since we started everybody hates me for this. Thank you, jason for the donation. No, they love. You as well there's so much love for.

Thank you so much i you know i i knew i asked sasha to come on he's a you know, he's a kind of a little genius. Also thank you for michael pillig adam. We love you, keep it up volunteer to the moon. Okay, let's do this, okay, so let's continue for everyone who doesn't like my bearish stance penalty is one of my six biggest yeah you're, not bearish volunteer.
I think it's one of my. I think it's, my third or fourth biggest position: yeah, it's you're a big bull, so there's a difference between being bearish and being uh, fair and realistic, and people expect, if you, if you're bullish, that i hold like. If i see something negative about the stock, i'm going to say i'm not like, i always get frustrated, and this isn't very much like a youtube thing, because i've been seeing some example. Some of the really big tesla focus channels recently, where there are some things that come up in there and there is an overwhelming just oh, it's furred, it's like it's just just say it how it like, if you don't analyze things with a clear head, if you Don't look at things and say this is good and this is bad and make up an actual, rational, like decision on the back of it you're, not an investor you're, just a fan boy, like that's my view anyway, you got you got.

You got to be honest about it to join any fan. Clubs, i'm here to try to like logically understand like my take on on this, is there is some caution from what we're seeing so far like the numbers are, are good but the the issue in this report for me uh that is really standing out before we've. Even read the rest of it is they need to open up new tangents for growth, otherwise, growth is going to slow down in the next two years and that that is dangerous for a growth company, because usually with the growth company, you can you can you, like You have all the data that shows the growth is coming. It just hasn't come through to the p l yet here because as the government drying out and you have problem with roi tam sorry row tam on the commercial side yeah.

So so so that's that's a realistic issue because, like that future growth is not necessarily like guaranteed, not guaranteed, but the data is not currently showing it's coming through. So they'll need to like add to the current uh pipeline or current. You see you're getting some love as well: sasha best finance youtuber in the uk. I agree not only yeah one of the we named you yesterday on a podcast with justin as one of the top 10.

I mean oh you've been there you've, i mean i'm just a little housekeeping before we. Let sasha continue his analysis. If you're a channel member and you're commenting, i'm going to add you as a moderator, and so it will allow you to kick people out and ban people and put people in timeout. So we can actually keep the conversation a little bit more friendly and not as toxic.

So if i see that the channel member commented, i immediately i'll make you a moderator, so you can handle the chat all right. Let's keep reading, we exceeded our sales force hiring. So this this is the bit we were talking about just earlier right. We see the sales force hiring gold 2021 across the business across geographies.

We started 2021 with 12 us commercial sales representatives, six of whom had been with us for more than nine months, so they hired a bunch of them like at the end of 2020 and ended the year with 80 u.s commercial sales representatives, so um. Obviously, a lot of that spend earlier in the year looks like it was like hiring hiring the sales staff 25 of whom have been with us for more than nine months, so the bulk of them came later in the year, then the vast majority right yeah interesting. So the team contributed so they've hired a bunch of these guys. These guys brought a bunch of customers um the guys came later in the year, so the customers must have come even later than the sales staff that brought them right.
So, presumably, a lot of that 80 number um is back weighted. What was that number in q3? Out of curiosity, do you remember 60 or something yeah? Let me see if i can quickly find it. I can see that they added 34 new customers in q3 where's. The total um, if somebody if somebody knows what the q3 total number was yeah put it in the chat and it will pull up your comments.

But so that's so that's good. So that means like a bunch of these clients, potentially on board in q3 q4, and that may mean that the revenue for them is just not coming through yet because remember so, this is a unique sponsor. You have one unique uh thing about them, which is it's a software business where a lot of a software business, but at a scale where the commercials really operate a bit more like a consulting or a service business. And what that means is a lot of revenue.

Is like retrospective, so, like so you'll have like agreements that are quarterly based that uh, whatever, where uh billings get issued, then there's a term to pay and revenue is going to be recognized when the invoice is issued and it's not a big deal. It just means that potentially we're one or two quarters away from seeing the revenue from new customers coming on board. So if you see a very large, one-off, uh onboarding of customers and no revenue, that potentially means maybe q2 we're going to be seeing that that pop through in the numbers, maybe anyway, by the way you know what's funny. On the one hand, you have a comment here by remy, which is, i think, misinterpreting you saying it's a company in decline, which is not what you said and but then you see somebody else who's getting it.

We have our channel member here, irina sakalova and she says commercial customer count tripled to 147 customers year over year. So a shout out to irina uh, she understands uh. I think people are not understanding your uh pragmaticism they're, confusing it with burstness, i'm a little too. I'm a little i just say i just say how i see it.

I i think i think a lot of people don't like that. Initially i thought it was took over and then i got i got confused. I was like it took me a second to understand it right, the best cameo, by the way, if you're russian she had the best cameo ever in broadway. You remember that uh it's a long.
She was playing his girlfriend. I i i never mind, never been on. Like 20 years, it's still it's a classic movie, never mind. We can talk about it off stream, let's go in 2021, the us commercial revenue grew uh, the us commercial revenue, growth was 16 and net dollar retention was 103, which lagged behind the us uh.

What revenue non u.s was 16, so so so this is the bit that we talked about where they've they've, naturally, especially so alex over the last year, has been making a lot of these kind of comments like oh ch, like china, can go and do one, and Even in paris, he was like in paris doing a press conference. I don't remember like two months ago or something and somebody asked him like well. What do you think about the political situation? Because the socialist party is doing particularly well there or whatever and he's like? Well, if they win like we're, never gon na do business with france. You can all go yourselves kind of thing, i'm like oh, my god, this guy's not making many friends uh but but yeah.

So i think it's kind of beautif the beauty of it, though it's it's sort of intentional. It does put a cap uh, which it probably me means that the relationships were like us government, u.s army. All of these things are stronger, but if those things begin drying up and stop being such an important part of the business, then do you want to be pandering to what is becoming faster, much smaller proportion of your overall business uh? Do you want to be restricting yourself in the much bigger you know rest of the world market, because the small part of your business would prefer you to not do it? Do you know what i mean so that's going to be like potentially a an achilles heel for them in a few years time, so um uh, thank you. Eugene for reminding us uh earning calls in 30 minutes all right.

Somebody said earlier tom nash, the master of interrupting, i agree um. So what else are they saying uh? We intend to adopt in 2022 a hiring plan for a non-us commercial business that is similarly aggressive to the one we implemented for our us commercial business in 2021. Um, so they they kind of so okay, that's the next paragraph is addressing the point i was just making, which is uh. Don't worry, i should read it first, including hiring several percentages across france.

Oh germany, exactly what we were talking about so they're, basically addressing the obvious issue and i think the the juxtaposition of those two paragraphs is intentional, because literally you read that first one and the first thought is what i just said right and they're like exactly hang On hang on it's okay, i mean they're kind of smart people over there, man, but but our conversation is naturally we're like well. This is obviously a problem and they're like yeah yeah. We hear you we're addressing the problems. It's almost they're, having a conversation with us.
I think that they've written this in this order for, for a good reason, look at this volunteers. I, like it stacy salazar comment of the day so far um. We also expanded upon our ecosystem across the commercial business 2021, including with ibm, stern stewart alex partners and data robot. We launched foundry for builders and our strategic investment program to capture the opportunity for foundry to be the developer platform for the next generation companies.

So this is again. This is addressing the earlier point we were making about bringing on the smaller to medium-sized enterprises and offering them something that's more of a tool less of a consulting service, because there's obviously a hybrid plan here. So they're kind of addressing both of those major points and they're kind of saying look here is how we're planning to add to the growth that are seeing, because we know we need to expand that future deal flow and they're saying one we're going to be going. Rest of the world really heavy through 2022.

By doing the same hiring process, we did in the us in 2021 and we're going to be pushing this more medium enterprises more tool like business, so good um it. The good thing about this is, unlike some companies they're, not burying their head in the sand and they're, not kind of saying: oh, let's just ignore the negatives or whatever. Let's just hope, people don't notice it just brush it under the carpet right. That's really good because, for example, yesterday we had shopify results and shopify very much did a buried ahead in the sand because, like like, like i, i did a video about that as well, but like they didn't address the so i was doing the same thing.


By Stock Chat

where the coffee is hot and so is the chat

28 thoughts on “Palantir q4 earnings live co-hosted by sasha yanshin”
  1. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Maximas says:

    Carp is legendary. Styling the Einstein hairdo

  2. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Brad Coyne says:

    And their commercial revenue is damn near caught up to their government side.

  3. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Clement Johnson says:

    Market is down and no really great news from palantir, not a good combination. Maybe institutional will buy at this level which should reduce the volatility.

  4. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars DominAdrid says:

    Once again, Karp gets in front of the camera and the stock plummets. I think they need to get a spokesperson that fits all the typical woke victimhood categories. Get a black Chinese transgender "woman" in a wheelchair to answer these questions, then the Black Rockettes will be happy, because we all know that "go woke, get broke" isn't true.

  5. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Brad Coyne says:

    Damn. I must have read different earnings than Sasha did because they increased on all metrics. Commercial client count way up. Beat their revenue growth expectations. Only metric down was eps and smaller margin than expected.

  6. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars sagger kawan says:

    alex keeps saying they are demonstrating best in class…..quite hollow
    walk away…. they are not startup….they were 17 years old….IF CAGR IS UNBELIEVABLY high as alex says…."as a phoenix rises"….. what enterprise value after being growing for 17 years ?????

    Their guys that did the earnings call in their last (previous) ER ape alex…( but not so a veteran) …….
    i sold all but 1 share in Nov (ER) to keep a tab this spin

  7. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Nicholas Alderman says:

    In response to the 3.6b outstanding, We don't know all of the customers they gave foundry to for free…they are more interested in getting market share in promising companies who can't afford them. Palantir is really early in this emerging market, and it takes time for companies to understand how much they need their software….people need to be patient…

  8. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars D R-K says:

    I am truly happy you did this Tom, I was really looking forward to this. Your coverage of Palantir Skywise was what tipped me over into this camp. It really opened my eyes about this company that I was a bit dubious about. The more I looked into it, with the help of Palantir Vision (awesome channel)and you here is helping to grow and is a real asset to this growing community.

  9. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Peter C! says:

    Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Tom, I think this is positive news for PLTR, the commercial side is increasing and Gov side as we all knew has a ceiling. It is interesting that Sasha view is leaning towards that he is not impress with PLTR, is he shorting the stock?

  10. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Al_ r says:

    Yes agree that that PLTR has great potential but why do you have to buy now when it’s obviously on a downward trajectory despite good earnings? Wouldn’t you be better off waiting a couple years down the road then buy in? What does a couple of dollars difference in this stock price matter when we know this stock price is remaining low for at least a few years? Why not actively use the money you’re parking in palantir now and trade Tesla instead to make some actual money, then inject some booked profits into PLTR later for the much awaited pop? It’s currently 14% down after earnings at opening bell😪 Fh! Would love hear your rationale, Tom. Love your vids btw

  11. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Nicholas Alderman says:

    Lol, I am so excited the stock is down, I have a lot of cash just to take advantage of the FUD. Palantir is the future, don't let the FUD talk you out of what you know.

    IBM has been doing great with palantir as well.

    Also Sasha is way too negative, he is missing the forest for the trees. This is a nice quarter, and they are just getting started…he came in here with some other pre conceived notion.

  12. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars jackie vanerelli says:

    Stayed til the end, thanks for this! Wouldn't let me live comment

  13. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Ben Wilkinson says:

    Commercial revenue grew 102%. Decent, that's the future baby.

  14. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Demian Penton says:

    Great job ! Government is not as important as the commercial . The future is commercial, Karp has stated this in previous interviews I believe . Great job Tom and Sasha! Kudos brother!

  15. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Dr Who says:

    So palantir isnt a trillion dollar stock what a suprise

  16. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars frederick reed says:

    I got off work late and I woke up late. So when I looked at the news on pltr I was shocked they missed earnings. Then I played your video and went what the heck was those people talking about. Now I fully woke up and the updated news report comes out right before opening bell.

  17. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Random Encounter says:

    It was not exceptionally great but it was not horrible results either. This goes below 10$ for sure and I'm waiting there to average down.

  18. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars EDWARD RYAN says:

    Ebo chicago

  19. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Alpha Romeo Sierra says:

    I’m pretty sure Palantir is going to have better days, but PLTR is going to 5-7 dollars range. I’ve seen this happen many times. This is what MMs want for PLTR. Glad bought at 21 and sold at 27.

  20. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars John H says:

    I'm not buying this crap stock

  21. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars herpadjerp maplurp says:

    anyone got a TL;DR ?

  22. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Imran Ali says:

    Thanks Tom

  23. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Turning Point says:

    they miss the earnings. If they don't play with Wall street games, that's fine, but t least they should tell us why they do not want to play wall street games instead of just saying whatever they want. I believe they are smart people but they can't convince wall street. Are they smart enough?

  24. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars thilgu says:

    Damn, me buying a day before earnings aged badly.

  25. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars B B says:

    Buy Palantir……great investment!!!!!

  26. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Bruno Heggli says:

    Horrible!But i am not supriced that so many Tesla cultist are invested in Palantir to!

  27. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Toua Thao says:

    Alex Karp is a smart guy but he need to hire a spokesman for him. Some who could the Palantir

  28. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars mightytiny says:

    Thanks for streaming this and thanks to Sasha for joining

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