What's going on guys welcome back to the channel so just getting home just seeing the market for the first time today since being out this morning today, i posted two short videos to youtube, which are only a minute long, we're gon na watch. Those in this video talk about the analysis that we were doing in the morning and then kind of look at the charts and see how that all played out. So let's go ahead and watch this video together, really quickly guys. Here's the sp four hour chart draw trend line.

Next close, the statistical deviation down draw a trend line change time frame one year. One day, close the statistical level draw trend line close the statistic alone, draw a trend line by doing that, we create these two zones. One on the upside and one on the downside for markets to be bullish. The spy has to clear that top level and hold above for markets to be ridiculously bearish.

It would have to go below the bottom dotted and stable of the bottom dotted. So that would be my max short target for the day and that would be my max long target for the day. So if the markets go up long then sell into that. If the markets go down short and buy into that, and you could only consider swing long if you're holding above the top - and you can only consider swing short if you're holding below that one low okay, so that's the spy analysis for the day.

We're going to pop on over and we're going to take a look at the qqq. So the reason we're going to watch both of them and then go and look at the charts is because the qqq analysis plays out a little better than the spy analysis. So sometimes you kind of see that where one indices plays out better than the other in regards to your analysis and so nonetheless got ta watch both of them good morning, beautiful people qqq. This is what it looks like right now on a four-hour chart.

You see that white line that has been the bottom of the market over the past week, or so so. This is kind of what's going on drawing trend line over that trend line switch to one year, one day draw a trend line over that trend line. Just for fun, here's a 10 day 30 minute chart. You will see that the market has been bottoming, that white line for the past couple days, so the way it stands is if the market goes through, that white line with confirming selling volume.

Today you will then look down to that white line. What is the price of that white line? The price of that white line is 389 dollars, so to repeat: if the market goes to that one and has extreme selling volume, as it's going through, there's a good chance. The market can creep down to that price of 3.89 and vice versa, if it's holding it with a bunch of buying volume, don't go short all right. So those are the two analysis for the day um.

So now we should go and take a look and just kind of see what both of them did. So, if we look at the spy, the recommendation was at about 8 30, maybe 8 45 closer to 8.50. The recommendation on the spy is you would not my opinion, look to be anything more long than that type, top white line, which is a price of 467, 20 or so and my recommendation was, you probably want to watch the markets long into these levels and if They get, there then sell the market down. So you can see the market creeps up almost gets to that top white line, or the first one there and then the market sells down.

Now. In this instance, you will see that the spy does not actually go to either one of these dotted lines. Now it does sell down in the direction of them, but does not touch them now. Sometimes we run into this situation and i'm kind of like well.

Why didn't they or like? Why didn't the market go to those lines, and sometimes you can't fully rationalize it. So what i've come to to rationalize over the years? Is this in the event that the spy does pretty much everything we're thinking except totally go to the price targets in this case? On the downside, i always want to know. Well, you know maybe like why didn't it, and so what i've come to realize or what i use is. My rationale is that it's really just the fact that qqq hit its target in the qqq kind of bottom.

So then it would be really hard for the spy to go down. So to me, it's kind of like these psychological factors that maybe you know, pose some sort of play into the market and what i mean by that is when we switch to the qqq. You will see that the market remember sold down to this level and as we're breaking through, we kind of do get some confirming volume. It goes down.

We bounce back to that first white line. So remember the analysis was markets bearish and through this level, with confirming selling selling volume, then you look down to 389.. The market only hit a low of 389.76 and ours was a suggestion of look down to 389., so we were off by at least 77 cents. Now the reason we could also be off by 77 cents is it's possible that when the market opened, what i had used to find the bottom white line could have actually updated.

Alright, so we'll go back in a second re-flip through the time frames and we'll see if, in the event, that the daily chart, time frame changed and that's why the market actually stopped here. So that, at the time that i posted the video the market wasn't open and when it did open what i had used to find the bottom support level recalibrated and was actually maybe closer to 389, 90s or 389.77. I don't know for sure. I have no idea if it was in the daily chart level, because i don't remember from this morning, but we'll take a look in a second.

So you see the market comes down. It breaks through that first white line that we had discussed. You will see we bounce back exactly to that white line. That would be the breakdown in the market going back to retest the breakdown, as you guys have so commonly heard for so many years in trading and reading.

So many books and we've all seen - and you know that is the breakdown markets - bounce back they retest, and if the market cannot kind of sustain back and through, you would continue to trend down, and you will see that when we break down off this retest it Ends up running down to 389.77 and the recommendation or the price target max downside for the qqq on the day we had suggested during pre-market was 389, so 8 30 in the market or 8 30. In the morning we suggest your max downside target for the market. Is 389 and basically, at you know, market close almost we hit that target, so it took all day to get there, but at 8 30 in the morning pre-market we're telling you you know one of the downside swing move targets for the deck, though we didn't get There completely and the reason for that could be the recalibration. So let's take a look um, let's, let's delete well, we don't have to delete anything really, but maybe we'll delete this bottom one here and let's go recalibrate and see where the level's actually at.

So if we do recalibrate to right now, this level comes into play at 389 still, 389. So it's still 389 the markets just bottomed at 389.77, so our downside target almost hit perfectly, but still off by 77 cents a day. So in this situation you know, if we're trading and on the day we're looking at the markets going down and we're like hey, it could go to 389 during the pre-market trading session and it's coming down and it's close to 389 and say we're short or say We wanted to do like a bottom bounce, reverse scalp, long, reversal, trade. If you may you know what would we look for to convince us to say hey, maybe 389.77 is going to be the bottom, and maybe it doesn't actually go to 389..

What would we kind of look for? Because there has been so many situations where i i look at the market and go hey? We should go down to 389 today and as we're going down i'll, be short i'll be short and we get close, but not quite and i'm like you know, i think i can go a little more and then i give back a little profit or i kind Of miss the long play because i'm trying to suck too much out of the downside, because i feel so confident in the analysis which, again when at 8 30 in the morning, you're calling pretty much the bottom of the market. There is confidence involved and that can kind of lead you to sticking in a trade a little too long and being a little too overconfident. So what i've been getting better at is you know when we have a situation like this? You pretty much say where the market's going to go: you're off by 77 cents, all said and done. You know that's pretty much a job well done right.

At 8, 30 in the morning, you suggest 389's, the bottom of the market. For the day we go to 389.77, so when you think about it from a big picture, you pretty much just predicted the market, let's say 90 of the way for the day, so you're 90 correct on the day. At this point you start looking for, like volume. Shifting right so we're very close to the bottom of the market.

Why is it the bottom of the market? It's just the bottom of the market because we made a random guess and thought that 389 would be the bottom of the market and we just ended up getting lucky and the bottom was 389.77 for the day. So when we get towards those areas, though we may not get there perfectly, sometimes we get there perfectly. Sometimes we go to it and shift below by a little bit, but as soon as we start to get close to that price that we'd identified, you know eight hours prior, we need to start being uh very um. You know, i guess you could say concerned with how the volume starts to change or if, in the event it changes.

We need to make um note of that, so you will see as the markets creep down to 389 um. You know, as we shift from this red to green there's, just an immediate change in volume right. You can see here we're bearish, going down all bearish little slight. You know green there, but bearish and then just instantly boom.

You can see it's just a dramatic shift. Tiny bit of selling pretty much all buying volume right and then by volume by volume. So you know you can kind of see that we get to the bottom and there's a shift in volume. Now it didn't lead to the greatest bounce in the world, but that's ideally what we would be looking for, and i can show you a better example of this volume shift that leads to a better bounce just by looking backwards a couple days on the nasdaq.

So if we shift this to like a five day, one minute chart something like ah we'll do five yeah we have to do the five we have to do the one minute it just kind of makes it. You know a little bit easier to describe with the volume interaction, but here's the deal if you guys go back and watch like the youtube short from the previous day. So not today's youtube short, but the previous day we would have also suggested you watch the market. Bearish, exactly not so the way that we predicted the 389 bottom was the same way that we predicted this bottom.

So today we were off by 77 cents, but the day prior, we were maybe off by one penny. So the day prior we suggested you watch the markets bearish to this point and if you got confirmed selling volume, then you would look down to this point, but there wasn't there was actually buying volume. So you go long and then today was the day where we went through the level confirmed: selling selling volume. You know retested the breakdown and we basically went to 389..

So what we suggested as a possibility yesterday ended up playing out today. But if you look back at yesterday, you see the volume um is is the way you would want to see it to kind of confirm a nice reversal, long trade so think about today right the market's going down. Okay and you kind of get down here and you have like a little baby volume shift and it it bounces, but it's nothing too epic. But let's go back to previous day and the reason i would say that is because today we did break down and we retested the breakdown and shifted down.

So we're kind of in more of like a downward movement. So yeah the optimism on the bounce might be a little skewed, but if you scroll back just a day or so and think about this day right, you know there was a portion of the market. That was sorry. Let me get it in focus right.

So you know we go back to here, which was just uh yesterday, um in or well the day before sorry it was uh wednesday, yeah wednesday, so um wednesday, we had the market. You know on a bearish move similar to what we saw today here friday, and it goes down directly to that price target. And when you zoom in and you look at the volume you will see that it went from you know, you know, selling buying selling a little bit, doesn't matter it's going down and it kind of shifts that little down trend there and you will see the market Just goes from what was bearish to now bullish right and what i mean by that is look at how the volume on the bear side is going up up up up up up up up and then all of a sudden it just drops off, and then it Just basically goes to like minimal selling and mainly buying in that little bottom. You will see, then the market just goes on.

You know sort of a strong tear, so you know think about it here right, so we had red up and then the red shrunk. And then we just went green, green green right, a lot of green in there and it just ended up leading to a you know: nice trend up for the day which, if i zoom out you know, we can get it back into focus here. So 5 day, 15 minute right, you can see, we swung down volume shifted and we had a nice long bounce. For the day we go into friday session.

You can see the market shifts down to that point, tries to double bottom bounces up swings down below bounces back re-test breakdown shift down to 389. So this is a recap and if you guys want, you could go back and watch the shorts from today and the shorts from yesterday and then come back and look at the charts and kind of see how that all played out so hope. You guys, like the video i will catch, you guys, i guess, on the next video alright take care.