Hey everyone welcome back to another uh live stream, so today we are just before the federal reserve meets tomorrow, and the big question is holy moly. What kind of disaster are we potentially going to experience tomorrow? Is the federal reserve going to uh? You know rug poll us: are they going to uh? Make us feel like that's it uh. We are uh we're we're in for the nastiest cycle of rate hikes earnings season started off with everybody complaining and moaning about these supply chain issues. Uh.

Is this just the beginning of more pain and will that pain then, last until march? Well, that's a big question so uh! This is where we've got to take a look at the market and go all right. Well, uh is this: is this the time to uh buy and hodl the index funds, or our favorites might be usually is when there's peak fear, which we've seen with the vix we've been at peak fear? Can it keep going down absolutely, but some of the deals that are on the market right now, they're, not terrible. You know where etsy end phase of firm tesla, where some of the stock prices are they're, not terrible. Could they go down more absolutely, but folks, tomorrow's big fed meeting is going to tell us everything in my opinion, absolutely everything.

So, let's take a look here. This is what we got. We got the s p 500 right here, rotating to the downside, into the clothes. However, actually having a phenomenal recovery, intraday take a look at the the drama that we had intraday today.

Again, we opened up just like yesterday, sold off for the first hour, so sold off a little longer yesterday more sharply yesterday. But look at this folks recovery into the close, mostly the second half of the day, was mostly recovery and uh and chilling here. Uh chilling right here and and trying to evaluate, are we gon na fall into the close falling into the close is going to reiterate the uncertainty the market expects tomorrow. Let's take a look at this: we got uh rk falling into the close.

We've got uh and it almost i think it broke even today. At one point: uh lemonade, uh, a stable into the close you've got tesla uh falling a little bit into the close tesla went positive today. It ran all the way up to 951 dollars and what we're seeing right now is a little bit of a uh a second low day, but it's a higher low than yesterday, which is good we're not seeing uh. You can see that here clearly on the chart.

We're not seeing as high or as low of a low that we saw uh yesterday now something that i've been doing. A lot lately is uh, and this video is also brought to you by them. Is i've been using ftx for watching btc prices and one of the things that i was just talking to course, members about which remember there's a coupon you can take advantage of with that expires within three days for joining those course, member live streams every day, the Market's open spend a lot of time talking about different options, strategies and cash hedging strategies, people don't actually think you, you might consider hedging your cash hedging. Your cash is actually important, but anyway, i've been watching ftx or i've been watching btc, so bitcoin uh on ftx us check out the link down below to sign up for ftx it's a really cool platform because you can buy crypto and they integrate the trading view.

Charts which tradingview is like one of my favorite uh uh like a chart, you know providers, but but they don't, like you, can't trade on there, but here they've integrated the trading view charts it's amazing, but anyway i've overlaid, ethereum onto btc and what i'm noticing is When btc moves up, the stock market seems to come up a little bit afterwards. When btc moves down, the stock market seems to pull down a little bit so in a weird way. Bitcoin's kind of leading what's been going on and this is mind-blowing to me, but but it is, and so yesterday i saw this as well. Yesterday morning, uh bitcoin plummeted on news of the uh of the drop right.

Here you see this v-shape recovery right here on btc. What i love - love, love, love, love right here - is that btc dropped and the stock market took about three hours to bottom afterwards, so yeah, it is almost kind of like uh bitcoin sees the future, which is really really incredible, uh. So very, very, very interesting to me, uh, and so this is one of the reasons generally, while i'm sitting here watching the market determining what's going on, is i'm watching the overlay of btc and ethereum and if you want to take advantage of this as well click That first link in the description down below uh ftx.us is sponsoring this. Today you can also go to metkevin.com ftxus to learn more, which is exciting, uh.

Okay. So let's go back here and uh understand! What's going on in ticker land, so ticker land right now and we'll see at any point, obviously, when we find a pattern patterns can sometimes end up breaking, so it's always worth uh keeping an eye on that. So uh we are falling into the close we're getting a sell-off into the close here. In my opinion, this is really a um, an indication that there's a lot of fear uh coming uh tomorrow.

If we get a lot of fear tomorrow in the fed, you know there are concerns that we end up with some form of bloodbath if they rug pull us right uh, you know, let's see here there we go, they rock pull us it's gon na suck. You know imagine the fed comes out and says: hey we've been having so many more supply chain issues. What we're actually going to do is we are going to uh uh we're going to taper faster, we're going to end the taper faster and we're going to end the taper in uh in in january, instead of in march, like we previously said well, this would be Yet another u-turn from the fed, it's entirely possible and and it could lead to to some more shaken confidence in markets around the fed. So it doesn't surprise me that we're seeing a little bit of a close or a softness into the clothes tomorrow we have tesla earnings, which is a huge day, a lot of really bullish expectations for tesla uh.

I think uh, you know. Look. I love. Tesla long run uh.

I can't wait to be big and heavy in tesla again, but i think we've gotten so much good news out of tesla. I don't know how positive those earnings could be. It could be wrong, though. I'm not making i'm not gon na make a bet on tesla earnings.

That's one thing that i'm gon na uh promise myself, though so. Okay. Here we go so in terms of earnings, speaking of which, today we have a microsoft reporting at 110 today. So, in about 14 minutes we'll go ahead and explore what the heck is going on over there uh we do have texas instruments and some others, but the big one that everybody's gon na be eyeballing is microsoft, which is really going to be uh.

Quite quite interesting. Uh fed only has to say it looks like rain for stocks to fall. Jeez. It's you never know uh.

If bitcoin now controls the market and china controls bitcoin, you could say: china controls the us market, yeah yeah yeah. I hear you uh. That's i mean i don't think so, but we'll see. Okay, look a tiny little bit of sprout a little inkling of green coming here into the clothes.

Are we going to get a little bit of green going into the clothes yeah? Maybe maybe, which is weird because again go over to ftx. Look at that. Btc was doing that as well. I i don't know what it is, but uh, interesting correlation.

So uh. You know this is something uh something to watch out for all right. What do we got here? So we got arc down 3.66 at the moment, chipotle down 3.08 wow, we haven't looked at that one in a while huh one of the things too. That's making me excited about potentially transferring funds over to ftx.

Is they promise to have lower fees uh than than like 85 percent of of the other platforms and uh? If you use the referral link down below you, get five percent back uh in in trading fees, that's one of the benefits that they use for using a referral link. So if you want to use that referral link down below whatever nominal fees, you do end up paying you end up getting five percent kind of cash back on your trading fees. If you got referred to the platform because it lowers their advertising, cost of acquisition so check that out again met kevin dot, com ftxus, so uh. Something to keep an eye on here is mind.

Medicine got a big fda approval today on um i don't know, i think it was an au. Was it a? I don't remember what was it was an adhd or an autism. I can't remember it was on one of those anyway, i am not an investor in mind medicine, so i'm not the best for following up on exactly what's going on here, but let me see if i can find really quick mind: medicine, fda approval for specific yeah, Fda clearance for an inb application for anxiety, treatment, okay, okay, i wanted to get it right, uh and what's crazy about this is this is actually uh an lsd style, treatment and folks were wondering like they're like there's no way uh mind. Medicine is gon na, get that so it had cleared a new drug application allowing phase two dose optimized trials.

So it's not like it's a full-on approval. They still got to go through the trials and so on and so forth. But that's leading to a lot of optimism because you know people thought like lsd, yeah right, that's ever going to get fda, approved and they're actually approving the trial to proceed. So it kind of expresses some level of interest and uh and, like a lack of fear around that anyway, uh arkamoto up, we got some good movers here.

Jpm's up embrae airs up, not bad some nice movers here we also have some pain stocks a rival down. Another 11 shows some of the risk folks of picking a stock in this market. You just pick an individual stock holy smokes. Uh individual stocks in this market are just getting reamed and it's kind of gross uh, so uh, you know i mean look at um where'd.

It go backed holdings 3.9, that's freaking, nuts. Anyway, let's go ahead and look at uh the bell here we got the bell in about four seconds here and yep are kind of ending negative. The s p is down 1.2 energy and financials remaining positive into the close. Everybody else is lower worst performing groups, communication services, technology, community and consumer discretionary.

Okay, there you have it dow jones down point two percent: that's actually not that bad uh, the s. P 500 is down one point: two: two percent nasdaq down 2.28, not as bad as what we saw earlier, as well as the russell down 1.45. Not that bad, but a lot of anxiety going into the close folks. We had a sell-off going into the close rk rotating down into the close rk rotating down at the close.

The by the dip enthusiasm became more of an opportunity for the hedges to take advantage of by the dipping retail and end up selling them off into the second half of the day. Thank you so much together for donating five euros to say that, and i've created thousands of millionaires and educated the world on finance. Thank you for that. I tried my best folks, that's all uh, let's see here, i do want to see how these clothes look at all of the spark lines like if i move quickly here where my mouse is almost all of the spark lines rotate it down into the clothes.

That's a sign that it's not your stock, that's getting screwed! It's everything! Look at it again! Look at where my mouse is here mean it's remarkably powerful. Look at where my mouse is right here. It's it's hypnosis, okay, bye, meet kevin's course before the coupon expires. So you look at the mouse here.

Almost everything has rotated down via the spark lines at the close either slightly or substantially. I don't see anything that has rotated up in the second half of the day, here's excel fleet which is kind of flat uh, but otherwise it's just all down going into the close right there, which is not unexpected uh, especially if you uh have expectations for uh. For for pain from the fed tomorrow, so now we do have microsoft earnings on deck, uh, microsoft earnings are going to be a big. Oh, why is microsoft down all of a sudden 3.7? Did they report dude? There's no way they reported they're supposed to report in 10 minutes in eight minutes.

Actually uh, oh uh. Oh they reported. Okay. Revenue came in at 51.73 billion, they were expecting 50.87.

So that's actually a beat on top line. Revenue uh come on cloud. No cloud. Revenue came in better 2.2 billion versus 2.8 sorry, 22.1 billion versus 21.91 billion uh operating income.

22.2. Microsoft falls six percent after earnings, uh xbox content and services up 10. I'm trying to find out where the miss is where's, the miss where's, the misses uh. Is it a forecast, intelligent cloud was, it was a meat uh, the the productivity revenue was a beat, a slight beat uh.

I i don't get it, i don't get it where's the miss dude. The revenue is beat where i'm trying to find out where the guidance is dude, what the hell hold on. I don't know. What's going on uh, let me just dive into the guidance and perhaps we'll find something there for why we're down five percent yeah.

They don't know either mark anything, dude they're, just as clueless some of these tech names, especially the mega caps that have been they're literally just as clueless like. Why is the market all of a sudden, i'm five percent on microsoft doesn't make sense. It looks fine right. We saw the fang stocks, i called mount bank because i included microsoft and tesla in that group.

Everything started to roll over last week, dude this guy ain't reading the earnings he doesn't know quarterly highlights i'm trying to find it fiscal. Is it like what the hell forward-looking statements? No, that's just the generic bullcrap. What is it still? Is it still down yeah, it's still down why its earnings were fine. I'm telling you man, bad news, is bad news.

Good news or no news is bad news. It's a stupid, dumb market. It pissed me off it's so hard to plan. You know like i want to make bullish bets.

I'm a freaking permabull i just like temporarily am nervous, and this is one of the reasons and there's capital on the sidelines for the growth of these companies that this that has not changed. Despite this bear market. Looking at it, i can go through the percent after hours go ahead, welfare! No! It's just gon na. I can go through the line items of this past quarter, uh, which largely we're in line 18.3 billion for intelligent cloud.

Of course people. I already did that. I already did that uh i'll, listen to you for a second, though 15.9 billion that was in line and then the beat on the revenue line. Personal computing came in at 17.4 billion.

The forecast was for 16.5. That explains the revenue beat for the quarter just passed and, as we said already uh, the eps was a beat there as well. I haven't found any guidance uh which of course, we were also waiting for uh as as to why we might be down five billion and mike, i don't know if, if it's just this quarter, dude even epsb uh eps came in at uh uh, 248 versus 232.. That's a good b, actually, the initial takeaway.

If you look at the history of microsoft's, beat uh the last ten quarter. This is by far the smallest that we have going back uh at least three or four years, let's say three years so just in general, the idea, the cadence of uh surprises, was a little bit better than this, and you know, as i was saying earlier, it Really is just gon na be a bit of a litmus test as to people's appetite for paying up for uh. You know a still nicely growing, very large company uh that does not uh kind of blow you away with the surprise. Maybe there's something else in the numbers that we're not seeing in terms of the business mix, but to me it seems like uh, you know a company, that's still in the process of having that.

I i don't get it it's down six percent. Now it continues to fall on literally no damn news. Uh shift technology now down four percent in the after hour. So again, the small caps getting hit first uh smile direct going down two percent amazon's going down a percent on this uh matterport is going down a percent on this and uh you're you're down half percent on tesla tesla.

I mean tesla moved a little bit on this. Qqq is yeah qqq's not liking. This either qqq selling down again yeah, graham stefan, what up bro it's netflix all over again! That's right! Man dude it but like netflix, guided low. These people said nothing and the market's.

Like double middle finger, like what uh, no look the spy's trying to go right back to support okay, um, let's see if they have geared it out yet well, what's really interesting to me, is we've been talking to analysts about the importance of the azure number and Cnbc pulled 15 different analysts and the consensus or the average consensus was for 46 growth. So though the number came in a hair ahead of the street account estimate, it was right in line with those 15 analyst consensus. So what that says to me is that the most important growth area it was in line, it was not a beat, and i think that expectations are so high right now. This is a stock that has outperformed the broader tech sector.

If you look back over the past 12 months that i think that the expectations are just incredibly high, especially after the sell-off we've seen in the first half of the or this first part of this year, julia thanks so much uh for that uh mark where expectations Uh too high i mean we are talking about, beats relative to consensus. We're talking about. Do you know what that is? That's a bad! That's bad for tesla because, like if you think about it, that's, like you know we. We already know that tesla.

We know how many cars tesla delivered. We can be really optimistic about how much money they net, but if they missed even slightly on margin, we're gon na end up having the same freaking thing that happened to netflix and microsoft happen here, you know what it could be and - and this is just a Jaded way to look at it but part of me, i mean it's recovering a little bit, which is good a tiny little bit. I mean i like to see that because it's just otherwise it makes no sense, but pardon me wonders is: is it just like? Okay, earnings happened time to sell. Oh, it didn't go out, no worries, it's almost like did.

People bet on on a beat here are people to bet on a big beat on on tesla and the other companies. Is this just like weird after hours volatility uh? Who knows who who knows that's weird? The good news is microsoft is recovering slightly right. Now it's back to about 3.5 percent uh in the red here, the uh uh, i'm trying to say the nasdaq here is sticking to it's about uh three quarters: uh, two quarters: i'm sorry: two-thirds of a percent loss right here, uh microsoft, again trying to trying to Move up here, google coming down half percent here and after hours on this news. If i go to the one hour, what i'm going to want to do here is i'm just going to want to compare to the pain, yeah yeah there you go.

Will this is exactly why we don't play earnings? That's right will yeah. What i'm going to do is i'm just going to kind of compare you know. I can probably go into the 30 minute here if i widen the chart a bit. If i go to the 30 minute, let's just compare the bottom.

What we're seeing right now and after hours to where we were yesterday at bottom, because this was a big day right here right. This is uh. This is jan 24 right here and uh. You know we're kind of rotating back to that how's texas instrument.

Oh my! What hold on latest quarter that was yeah there we go forecast consensus, forecast of 194. uh revenues, 4.83 billion in the quarter. The forecast was 4.43 billion, so both top and bottom line, pretty clear beats and the guidance for the first quarter, uh from the company four and a half billion in revenue to 4.9 billion uh and earnings per share of 201 to 229. Those look like on the earnings per share level above uh the consensus as it stands right now of below two about two dollars about 187, so obviously a clear so uh.

The estimate for sales was uh 4.83. It came in at 4.4, so that's almost a 10 beat right. The adjusted eps was 2.27 that beat by about 10 as well. Uh free cash flow came in less than expected.

What's interesting is free cash flow came in way. Less than expected market doesn't really care. Uh markets, like i, don't care about your free cash flow. I care about your growth growth at any cost.

Folks, yeah eps came in or their their forecast a 4 revenue. Q1 2.01 to 2.29. The estimate was 190., that's at least uh. Eleven twelve percent beat right there on the measuring from the low side measuring from the midpoint uh.

That's more like a twenty percent uh revision up in in uh eps for the first quarter, so the texas instrument, one is, is good. That makes me wonder if microsoft is going to chillax a little bit more after that drama, and maybe the qqq will relax a little bit because of the uh texas instrument beat and - and maybe we just call microsoft - the fluke here - uh, it's still down 3.8. So i can't really say it's moving much off that ti. Uh move uh! Sorry! I thought it was texas ti, but apparently it's not oh it's txn.

I would never guess that one uh texas instrument here nice, nice move, so you want to be here and you actually got positivity now the question is going to be watch this in the next three or four hours is uh. Uh is, is texas instruments going to rotate down as we go into close as at the close of after hours, or is it going to rotate up? That's a big question right, so we're going to watch texas instrument we're going to. Let's take a look here: uh. Let's go to msft, my texas instrument doing was settling down.

Okay, so is microsoft still down about that 3.6? Try to gauge the overall market reaction here, the the nasdaq does not like this. The nasdaq is like this is. This is bad news uh for for uh, future earnings and, if you think about it, what's your biggest weight in uh, it's honestly, probably microsoft, that's weighing on this, but but uh. You know your biggest weights in the nasdaq and uh s.

P are your faves. You know aapl, let's see how they're doing down 0.66. You've got that's aapl how about how about tesla so down about a half percent uh two quarter or two thirds of a percent google down point four percent thanks together for the ten pound donation, paypal's down point seven on this: they don't like this pro tarot's down. Three percent no proterra, barely trades in the after hours.

I do think shift trades in the after hours, but those seem like weird block sales that are coming through right here. When you see that barcoding, sometimes you do get block sales that come in pretty large, hmm. Well, there's the uncertainty for you. Let's go look at headlines quickly and, let's just let microsoft chillax for a little bit, i have to say very, very weird earnings there by microsoft.

Uh, let's go before. I look at some more news and i want to see what the suits are reporting uh. What i'm also going to do is i'm just going to look at btc pricing here, because btc pricing has been a little bit of a forecaster for us and, of course, i'm going to use ftx uh to take a peek at this ftx is you can go To sign up for ftx and get five percent cashback on the nominal fees that you do pay their fees are, eighty-five percent lower than the competitors and you get five percent cash back. If you use a referral link like the one down below and uh, you've got incredibly low fees already but anyway, and what i'm, what i've been doing? Is i've been tracking again btc and ethereum, and what i'm noticing is take a look at this folks.

Here we go again as btc wrote down from tw rotates down from 1246. You get this rotation down into the close and a tiny little bit of recovery. Just in the last two or three minutes, i've been noticing a lot of similarities in btc sort of pre-moving uh, the spy or uh or some of the other, the other stocks. So so look at this.

You didn't get that rotation down in the spy until four minutes later now. I know that sounds crazy, but for a trader, that's that's a long period of time. You did not get a rotation on the spine until four minutes later. You did not get the rotation in the qqq until four minutes later uh, and it's almost as if on this bump right here, btc kind of gave you a little four minute heads up uh.

Oh we're starting to turn kind of interesting uh all right, so i'm gon na go into the back just to see if you got some uh. I do want to see what what's being said about this. Let's see, let's see top live there, we go top, live tea, live there, we go okay, top live blog. Are they doing microsoft? They should usually do past events best events - oh okay, it's gon na be under here one sec, yeah, 25.

Oh no! I don't actually have it up here. That's weird, all right, no problem i'll go somewhere else, all right, microsoft, plans, microsoft pain, aggravates stock, late day, swoon, microsoft, microsoft's, results, dive or post-results. Dive looks set to amplify concerns about the broader equity sell-off stocks end because of ukraine, issues, volume and liquidity, not enough to sustain stock recovery. Today, stocks are called were claw, clawing back uh losses.

Problem is volume, figures are less than half of that of monday, and market depth is abysmal. That could spell more weakness for stocks until at least after jay powell's meeting uh uh tomorrow. So, that's that that's a little line here, a little snippet from bloomberg that uh, you could get more pain until uh, at least through j j-pal's meeting. I would expect most traders are going to be pretty dang tentative, like oh, my gosh.

What's jpogo gon na do we're gon na cover this live tomorrow and i'm gon na be bitching about it, the whole time uh but anyway. Thank you. Thank you for another 10 pounds here. I don't know why you're being so nice to me today, thank you.

Inflation is here to stay if business hiring remains tight, that'll be a signal for the fed. Looney gets a lift on reflation bet s p on verge of unprecedented feet: uh! Oh! No! That was okay. You know it didn't end up pulling it off. So when the smp rotates down intraday a certain percentage like at least two percent after a previous two percent close, it is extremely rare for it to go positive and it was starting to trend up, but it didn't make it like.

It's super rare, okay, all right! Well, okay, so so not terribly much news right there. It's just a little bit of commentary. Microsoft falls after sales beat fails to appease wall street. That's literally the headline folks: microsoft b fails to appease wall street uh, that's terrible like that.

That should make that should create nervousness. I mean it certainly does for me dude why? Okay, look at uh folks, look at microsoft! So far, okay, look at this insanity! So far on microsoft, you are below the 200-day. Obviously, if you're below the 200 you're below the 50 and the 100., you are, you have substantially fallen off a cliff here, and microsoft has done so well yet yet now in the after hours yeah! Oh sorry, this is the qqq, my bad. It's probably a similar chart, though it's like the same chart uh.

That's that's why i didn't notice it. Thank you patrick patrick's, like that's the qqq and i'm like oh you're right. It literally looks the same though uh anyway, we are now past the october dip that we had er we're not as low as the may dip that we had on uh on microsoft here, but uh for what, when we're down four percent in the afters now come On man, look at that had a little fake bounce there again that's just getting sold yeah, it's still above the 300 day and then soon it'll be don't worry it's above the 420 day. Oh my gosh, oh geez, all right, yeah, all right! Let's jump in over here dip buyers emerge to drive stocks from lows.

Red hot housing market is betting. Interest rates will never rise. Yeah, that's sustainable uh meme investors learn the hard way the house always wins. Oh retail traders flocked to leverage etf, betting on more tech pain, the triple probably the triple nasdaq short uh sqq triple nasdaq.

That's you know it is an interesting play honestly. I i hate it. I just hate leverage uh, but uh yeah. I mean look at that.

It's up 2.3 in the after hours and uh as we started rotating down, it started rotating up, qq right now, sitting at uh down about point eight percent. This microsoft news is it's netflix all over again, like graham said that freaking nailed it all right. Well, we're vacillating now around that 3.5. No major other news to report.

I don't think here so uh - do check out medtkevin.com ftxus link down below check out the programs on building your wealth. My birthday is now officially in three days and then i'm going skiing uh are we gone for the weekend? Uh, i'm not sure. Yet. If i'm gon na be uh what what the status is for monday, but but either way, i'll uh, i for sure, will be back for a full day on tuesday and i'll, be here monday or friday as well.

So my first half of my birthday i'll be working and uh yeah. Thank you! So much for being here, tomorrow's big day, tesla earnings tomorrow, all right folks, we'll see you thanks again and uh again, shout out to metkevin.com ftx us get five percent back on trading fees, the very nominal ones they do have. If you sign up with our.