Oh man, folks, we might be in this one for a long time. Remember what i said. The bottom market likely comes with a fed u-turn. Well, we've got some updates on when that bottom might come, based on what some big names think and we're going to talk about a bunch of specific stocks and extra data towards the end of the video so make sure you stay tuned for all of it.

Okay folks uh first remember when the fed last u-turn, they set the precedent back in 1989 for u-turning when the u-turned the market went straight up from their u-turn. The same thing happened at the beginning of 2003, which ended the two and a half year, long.com crash. We had a u-turn from the federal reserve in february of 2009, which ended the great recession crash in the stock market. We had a u-turn by the fed in december of 2018, which ended the 2018 drama, and then, of course, we had a u-turn from the fed march of 2020., usually when they turn from regular tightening to bullish.

That's when the markets or dovish, i should say not not bullish like accommodative, that's when the money is made now, of course, markets may try to front run that now, because we're expecting at some point the fed's going to have to reduce rates again they're going to Have to relax some people are speculating that this is going to come in september when we get a potential pause from the federal reserve. Maybe it'll come in november and we'll get a sort of a slow down from the 50 basis. Point hikes down to 25 basis. Point hikes, but we'll still be in the tightening curve.

So what are we actually going to potentially see rate cuts again? Well, according to ray dalio, he believes founder of bridgewater capital. He believes that we're going to be waiting until 2024. That is right before the next presidential elections is when he believes the fed will actually start cutting rates again, which is interesting because elon musk was asked when when when, when is spacex finally going to ipo - and he mentioned it'd - probably be in roughly three years - which I thought this was quite interesting because three years is about the beginning of 2025, so even after when you've got ray, dalio suggesting sort of a fed u-turn bottom - and i couldn't help but think to myself. Hmm is elon musk wanting us to read between the lines here because, usually, if, when you go to ipo, when do you want to ipo, you want to ipo in a bull market like during a serious bull run.

This is why we had some crazy ipo seasons or a crazy ipo season at the end of 2020 and, of course, throughout 2021, and so maybe elon's thinking hey by 2025. The u.s economy is going to be on an insane bull run, which means, obviously we might be going through a recession before we get to that point. But this is not stopping people from going pretty crazy on making bets right now, at least for trying to predict this or at least front run. This uh arc invest, which is one of the highest losing etfs for the year in a year to date with a performance of negative 52.

So far, that's more than half gone has now had its 25th month straight of inflows. That's pretty wild they're, still getting inflows. 25 months straight no net outflows pretty incredible, but at the same time we've got a lot of folks looking for safety and listen to this data here. What do you think the median household income throughout the world is especially since a lot of people want to be emerging market investors and they say? Oh, you know, let's get into like china or different emerging markets or whatever well folks in the united states.

You might be familiar with the median household income: it's sixty seven thousand five hundred twenty one dollars around the world, though it's actually only nine thousand seven hundred and thirty three dollars and poorer markets are really expected to bear the serious brunt of the inflationary recession that We're likely going to go through and, of course, the stagflationary period we'll be going through anyway, also worth noting that in america, though, even the bottom 50 are doing substantially better than they did in 2019. In fact, listen to this, the bottom 50 percent of households, which is defined as having a net worth of under 166 000, now hold twice as much wealth as they did two years ago right before the pandemic and ten times larger of a net worth compared to 2011, pretty wild. Now some folks are saying: hey, you know what all these concerns uh over inventory over a target or problems in retail stocks like walnut walmart. Why not just focus on costco, and i wanted to share one of the core arguments as to why people are so excited about costco costco by the way down year to date, 17, which is only half as much as target is down down 34 year today.

But listen to this folks, it all comes down to memberships. Now, when i just pulled up the last quarterly earnings report for costco, i couldn't help myself, but look at memberships and go. Oh dude they've got like 51.6 billion in top line sales and only 984 million in membership revenues roughly a billion dollars right. But then i realized wait a minute.

The cost of sales, though, for that 51.6 billion, is about 46.3 billion or 90 plus, when you add sg, a costco is basically running a break-even business, which is no surprise because you've got companies like kroger that barely take like two percent to the bottom line. So how is costco different? What's that membership revenue again because see costco brought in 984 million dollars in membership revenue and their net income for the last quarter was 1.37 billion dollars? That means 70 percent of their bottom line is coming straight from memberships and if you consider memberships to pretty much pure profit, probably in excess of 95 pure profit, so wow. If you're looking for some of that retail protection, costco's got a really good argument with that membership. That's what makes costco pretty special now.

One of the problems, though, is with 13 of expected earnings for 2022 they're, still selling for 36 times 2022 revenue, with a growth rate of only about 10 to 15 percent. That puts them at a peg ratio between two and three. Not so spectacular, especially. This is a risk.

If we start getting, people trading out of consumer staples and back in the tech could be a little bit of a risk factor. But folks we got ta talk about some more stocks takers and some other things, but folks i got ta introduce today our sponsor. No, not the programs on building your wealth and that fifty percent off coupon code down below but metkevin.com ftx folks, remember this right here. What do we got up to eight percent on crypto and fiat trading view? Technical analysis, sweet, absolutely phenomenal integration, and now you can get a free twenty dollars when you trade a hundred and fifty dollars.

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So what are you waiting for? Go to medkevin.com ftx and get yourself that free 20 bucks 13 for free come on man. That's pretty good! All right! Let's get on back to some of these tickers here, because we got some more things to talk about about what's going on in the stunk market, so consumer confidence, obviously at substantial lows, but folks we are seeing stocks take up slightly and one of the reasons for This appears to be uh short, covering there are substantially high short ratios on a lot of stocks and one of the ways that we can measure this is we can look at large cap, shorts, uh and large cap short indexes or or etfs or index, as their Etfs and we can see that ah interesting - those are outperforming the s p 500 by two to three standard deviations right now, and so a lot of these rallies that we're seeing these sort of bear market rallies appear to be short covering worth noting. Now shopify just announced the 10th one split. That's coming on june 29th.

That's fascinating, ev demand for electricity. This was crazy likely to account for 20 of all electricity usage by 2050. It is only expected to be three to four percent of electricity usage by 2030., so that means between now and 2030. We're going to have a lot of ev growth right, but electricity usage between 2030 and 2050 is expected to 5 to 6x.

So if you're thinking, ev stocks still pretty dang early and it's also pretty lucrative if you're a ceo, my goodness, 566 million dollars of compensation for the ceo of lucid and 422 million dollars of compensation for the ceo of rivian in just 2021, absolutely crazy. Now, let's talk about a firm and remember folks, if you want to buy now pay later for those courses on building your wealth link down below check it out, 50 off, you could buy now pay later with paypal. You could pay in four and you could use buy now pay later for those programs on building your wealth, use that coupon code go to medkevin.com join check out with paypal, so a firm was just interviewed. The ceo was interviewed and asked about apple pay, worried about competition from apple pay, and they say you know what we're not worried.

In fact, we're still hiring the reason. A firm says, they're not worried, is because buy now pay later is only used in five percent of transactions right now and uh buy now pay later offered by a firm is also quite different from apple and that apple might do paying for, but a firm lets. You pay anywhere between six weeks to 60 months out, that's five years, so the ceo is actually excited about apple, getting into the industry because he believes - and i i don't know i want to hear what your thoughts are on this one of the comments. But the ceo of a firm actually thinks that apple getting into buy now pay later is going to familiarize more people with buy now pay later and actually lead more people to use buy now pay later, potentially through a firm, so he's actually looking at the apple Thing either through rose-colored, glasses or he's going to end up being right, but he's looking at it going well.

This is actually a good thing, crazy, alibaba's up, because china's gaming regulator just green lit the publishing of licenses for 60 games on tuesday. The first list of approved video games since the end of april. Finally, easing some of the regulatory pressures taiwan's semiconductors is projecting that sales will actually increase and not decrease, because, even though we're starting to see slower, pc and smartphone chip demand, they think that the electric vehicle market is going to provide plenty of chip demand for them To where they're actually raising their sales of forecasts, remember they're also building a 12 billion dollar plant in arizona and they think they're going through a now high growth period. Thanks to, of course, their leadership say, the leaders dutch bros just got downgraded by j.p morgan at 40 and jp morgan says it's easy to cut back on this kind of discretionary expense, and i don't know why they had to say this.

But i think it's quite interesting: they're, like uh yeah, cold drinks, make up 82 of dutch bros transactions, and most of the customers are female and younger. What do you got against younger people and females? Why do you think they have to cut back more huh jp morgan? I don't know. Let me know what you think in the comments down below uh they've also mentioned that jp morgan mentioned that dutch bros has about 66 turnover at the company. It's a lot and when you look at the fundamentals, this is not jpm.

This is coming from me and bloomberg here when you look at the fundamentals: we're looking at a 266 p e ratio for 2022 growth around 43 percent. That puts him about about a six peg. That's pretty high up there in terms of valuation. So who knows maybe jpm could be right.

Credit suisse not too happy reporting a third profit warning now since january, suggesting that consumers are not depositing as much money into their investment accounts with credit suisse and there's an ongoing consumer deleveraging that's happening in the financial space. This is different from deleveraging in credit cards, because that's not happening, people are borrowing way more money than usual there, but margin debt is actually declining, which is great, so we are seeing that deleveraging, just not great for some of the big banks. So i imagine the other banks, like even jpm, will get hit by that too. Uh mortgage applications down 6.5 we're now at the lowest level in 22 years, but the good news is: we have the biggest coupon code we've ever had before 50 off for the programs on building your wealth and if you want to do fundamental analysis with me, join Me in those live streams every single day that the market is open and i'm in the office.

We do fundamental analysis, so join me and learn how to do fundamental analysis, because i'm a big fan of teach someone to fish feed them for a lifetime, rather than just giving them a fish and feeding them for a day. Thanks. So much for watching folks and we'll see you in the next one make sure to go to macken.com ftx and get your free 20 bucks 13, we'll see in the next one. Bye!.