Oh my gosh. What is that is that a roblox call that's up a hundred and one percent, like the dalmatians that i took some tennies on this morning that i just bought two days ago. Oh damn! Yes, it is, and if you want every single buy, sell alert that i make every move. I make in this market make sure to check out the stocks and psychology money group link down below there's a coupon code, expiring march 25th and i'd love to have you.

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Folks, let's get into the video all right look now there's a lot of murmuring going on that. All of a sudden, the federal reserve is going to go back to rug, pull mode and they're going to go with that 50 basis. Point hike! Why? Because we know that bullard and even waller are talking about how we need a 50 basis, point hike and, in my opinion, mainstream media is trying to get us nervous about the potential for this actually happening. Well, folks, let me give you my opinion of whether or not this is even remotely possible.

Now, those of you in the course member live streams. You already know, because we talked about this this morning, along with a lot of other things, but folks we need to understand jerome and his leadership at the federal reserve like him or not, trust him or not. You got ta understand what's happening, and then you have a little bit of a better understanding as to whether or not we're going to get that 50 basis. Point rug, pull and honestly.

Does it even matter because where are we trading right now and which we'll look at in a moment as well and what is a likely course for this market, especially over the next day 10 days or so, where we have this weird relative quiet period, yeah, we'll Talk about that as well, okay, so, first we know based on the last scp that we got from the fed and jerome powell's talk. We know that our expectations for rate hikes have changed a little bit. In fact, our expectation is that we're actually not going to see a larger move in uh any of the uh uh feds anything, basically until we get another three months of inflation data. Why? Because jerome powell told us that we're going to delay when they expected peak inflation to hit - and so a lot of folks are like oh but kevin, i'm worried about you know the march cpi data coming out in april or i'm worried the feds get a rug, Pull us or whatever i get it, i'm i would be worried about a fed rug, pull too.

I just don't think it's realistic. Why? Because we we saw this coming that the peak should have been may, but we had the quote game changer of war and that peak was delayed to about q3 2022 about three to four months, so that pushes us back to getting inflation data in june and july. Right: okay, so if we get inflation data in june or july now - and that's going to be where the federal reserve sees a peak, then if the federal reserve believes that the peak is going to be either june or july, then obviously we would not expect to See a down in the cpi data until actually the august cpi, or potentially even the september cpi. Let's go with august, though, because this august aligns more exactly with what jpow told us right.

So if we get an inflection point down in inflation in august, then it doesn't really make sense or if this is what the fed currently believes, it doesn't really make sense for the fed to say that's it. You know what next meeting in may. Let's go for the 50 basis, point hike, which is just sort of the rumor mill that the mainstream media is perpetuating right now, especially on triple witching day, which generally turns out. It tends to be a nothing burger.

It's no surprise to me that yesterday, futures for the nasdaq were down one percent and the nasdaq today is almost actually up one percent. It's honestly quite glorious futures suck anyway. So the may 50 basis, point hike, don't think it's gon na happen, because it's literally a contradiction to what they believe, which is that inflation is going to peak in june july. Again, you might not believe this, you might think we're going stagflation.

This is going to go on forever, that's fine, but this is all about what we actually think they're going to do right. So this would mean that the first cpi report, where we should definitely have an inflection down in cpi, and it could happen earlier, which that would just be good news - that by the way, write that down as a good catalyst if cpi actually goes down in june Or july that's a solid catalyst. I'm talking august cpi, though, for being past the peak and actually seeing a real decline across the board like like broad and sustained kind of decline across the board. You know headline inflation if, let's say by june july, we're at you know seven percent headline going back to like five or six percent month over month decline, like certainly negative.

We need to see negative on the month over month. That's very important. We start getting negative negative and a negative market's gon na be very, very, very happy big boom time catalyst right, okay, so the august cpi report doesn't come out until the beginning of september. In fact, we could just type in schedule of cpi releases into google.

You go to the bls website, bureau of labor statistics and make sure you're looking at 2022, because sometimes you get confused and you look at 2021. It comes out september, 13th, okay, great! So this comes out september. 13Th. You know, what's really funny and convenient.

Is that the federal reserve has a meeting on september 20th and 21st 21st is when they'll do their press conference huh how convenient so if they believe the peak is going to be the summer, the post peak should be august cpi. That means the federal reserve meeting of september, in my opinion, has the highest likelihood of actually being the point where the fed says. Okay, we didn't get our peak, it's still going up time for a 50 basis, point hike. This is, in my opinion, when the risk comes and that risk starts getting priced in in these cpi reports not march, like don't even talk to me about march.

No, nobody cares about march. We know march is going to be an sh-9 t, show okay, it's old news. Now the other cool thing that happened september 21st. Is we actually get a new summary of economic projections, which is also something that reiterates why? I believe that the federal reserve would first consider a 50 basis, point hike september 21st.

Why? Because, when they give us a summary of economic projections, what do they tell us? Well, they tell us what they believe. Inflation will do in 23 and 2024 right and so what a beautiful thing to be able to tell the markets - hey, let's just say, uh, that the peak didn't happen right and august cpi goes up. So what a beautiful thing to be able to say hey! You know uh the api. What am i writing? The uh? Oh my gosh kevin geez to have another drink.

The august cpi went up, oh no. This is bad right and we got that news. September 13th. Now september 21 the fed comes out and says sorry.

We have to do the 50 bp hike, because the august cpi actually went up and we didn't end up getting past the peak. Yet now inflation is getting more entrenched. This is a problem. We have to hike a little bit faster.

This would be bad it'd, be a negative u-turn right, but at the same time they'll be able to say, oh, but don't worry again believe them or not. Oh, but don't worry, you'll see in our new summary of economic projections that we actually believe the peak is going to come in q 123. You know, like that's entirely, a potential reality, but again i don't actually believe any of this fear actually gets priced into the market until uh. Well, probably, the june july cpi's, which those come out on july 13th and august 10th, hey that's lauren's birthday and and then of course, the august cpi, which we already said comes out on the 13th of september, so that that's very, very important.

Okay. So now we need to talk about the market. Okay, obviously i mean tesla's knocking on the door of 900. Again, this is just ridiculous.

You know somebody we talked about this a little bit as well earlier in the course member live stream. People are like, oh, we should be selling calls sell, calls i'll call sell, calls right. Look. I like selling calls when we have a little bit of euphoria in the market.

This is not euphoria for tesla like if we ran yolo level to like 1100. I don't think we're gon na get to this all-time high again that we saw in december not anytime soon. But if we went you know we broke through this hundred day, moving average and and we start running again and we get to like an 1100 resistance level which i think could be realistic for for tesla. That might be a place to sell some calls, because now it's like okay, now things are going a little crazy.

Maybe you know, certainly if we went to 1200 it'd be like oh okay, well, yeah, maybe maybe now i'll take a little bit of downside protection. But somebody asked me they're, like hey kevin, i heard somebody sold tesla calls at another youtuber at 7 75 and i'm like what possessed you to do that look at how how how little time we actually spend in the 700s. You know you're coming right back out of the 700s. That's why, when you see tesla seven you buy, you know.

I think i've got about six or seven million dollars of purchases on in tesla in the 700s. Here, just in the last three weeks, no they're, not all in the 700, some of them are in the 800s uh, but they're all positive now, which is because it's almost 900, which is crazy, but anyway, the point is uh. Take a look at this. This is a little bit easier to understand, go over here to like qqq, okay.

So, in my opinion, it's gon na be very difficult for our market to get back to this this 100 level, but i do think it's very, very easy for us to potentially uh get to a 61.8 percent fibonacci here and we could potentially see this move here. 61.8 uh, quite frankly, over the next two weeks, and that's because we've got this weird quiet period, where we don't get labor statistics until the first week of actually april 1st. This time, which is kind of wild. Usually, when friday falls on the first of the month is it is not friday.

That's our anniversary by the way uh yeah. It is a friday. Usually they delay the report to the next friday, but they're actually going to deliver it on time. On probably consider 31 days in march, they're actually going to deliver it on time on april 1..

So we're not going to have a jobs report until april 1, which means really next week the 21st to the 25th. There's, not a lot of news. That's going to come out, i mean maybe we'll get like you know some miscellaneous updates to nominal reports, the pmis, the pce's or whatever, who cares? These are all scheduled. So it's they're not really maybes.

It's just yeah. Maybe those will be things. The market actually cares about, but otherwise be a little bit quiet for about a week, and i think that's actually what the market likes right now is the opportunity to sort of digest what the federal reserve has said digest some. Maybe new fed speak that comes out about this fear about the 50 bp hike, which i do not think is realistic until september and uh, and really take an opportunity to look at at the market and say hey where, where are some leftover values still and first Of all i mean, if you look at, certainly you look at like visa.

I mean 215 dollars. I think there's some leftover value there. You know and phase started it's starting to get up there again a little bit a little bit on the rich side. You've got a lot of movement in certainly the smaller caps right.

Now, i'm a little nervous about mullein. I think that momentum is going to die a lot quicker than people think, but i mean you look at some of these. Like the matterports, the sofis, the affirms, even neo, shift neo you've got the china risk. Obviously, though, but some of these small caps, even i hate to say it, but like tattooed, chef or or uh, you know a much better company.

Palantir right, like these companies are still so very highly shorted and there's a likelihood not necessarily for a short squeeze, but over the next week. If we start getting this, this fibonacci return. We start, i mean look at this now now we're making full closes we're back testing our support lines over here right, we're fully closing above some of these uh. These lower support lines now we're starting to potentially get to where short sellers say: hey.

You know what we made a lot of money writing these things down time to cover covering is buying, and i think you're going to see a lot more buying pressure on some of these smalls than you are on um on some of the larger companies that have Already recovered substantially so we'll see we'll see, i'm very optimistic about the next few weeks and, quite frankly, i'm also optimistic about negotiations with putin and ukraine. Putin's got a demand. Six demands, uh zielinski softened his stance, putin softened his stance, they're still both somewhat you know. Apart, obviously, otherwise we'd have a deal but uh.

You know zolensky's been open to the idea of a face-to-face meeting with putin, and so is putin. Putin has just, i think yesterday. Actually, yesterday, the day before, one of those expressed his willingness to potentially meet zilinski face to face, i don't know about you, but personally, i believe that could mark the end of the war, because they'll come up with a negotiated settlement and uh. That negotiated settlement will only work if poo, because i you can picture this okay putin says look.

Give me the don boss. Give me some separatist regions agree to be neutral. No, no eu, no nato uh! You can be militarized in certain parts of your country, but i need you to recognize crimea. I need you to recognize uh donbass and these sections, as as russian uh and we'll have uh, we'll call these a demilitarized zone or we'll create a demilitarized zone or whatever.

But at the same time i need you to go to the international community and i need mcdonald's back. I need coca-cola back. I need amazon web services back. I need some of these sanctions lifted and we'll we'll agree to this and then zalansky's going to turn around and say the international community.

Look we've come up with something: that's fair, it'll! Stop the death international community. We ask your help in making this negotiation happen and very quickly everything u-turns. I i hope that happens very soon. I think, with a high degree of certainty, i shouldn't say certainty.

I should say confidence because i can't be certain. I can be confident, but i could be wrong uh that this will happen by may yeah. I think that'll be a boon for the markets. I think really the big negatives are priced in uh and then this is why i'm as heavy in the market, as i am uh you know, do be careful on on.

Like calls volatility is very high. Your theta decay is very high, so if we trade, sideways and you're buying calls you're gon na get reamed very fast, but you could also make profit very very quickly. Like look at the beginning of the video, i showed you, the roblox call that's awesome, uh and, and more of that can happen, but do it with smaller portions of your portfolio uh. So just just be careful with with calls like that, uh, okay, good.

So these are my thoughts on the market right now, i'm i'm bullish. I'm happy follow me and every move that i make and the course member uh groups link down below stocks and psychology money for trade alerts. Any course will get you into the live streams where we talk about. You know moves that i make and i explain more rationale and theses on the market or if i start having negative feelings or whatever that's where you hear about them.

First positive feelings: you hear about it all there first uh check out our sponsor link down below. Thank you so much for watching and folks, we'll see you next one thanks. Bye.