Retail sales data for December came in stronger-than-expected, indicating a resilient consumer and putting aggressive rate cuts from the Federal Reserve into doubt. Retail sales were up 0.6% from November, and gained 0.4% month-over-month excluding autos. Economists polled by Dow Jones had estimated a 0.4% month-to-month increase in retail sales and 0.2% ex-autos.
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So let's quickly talk about why the market is dropping right now. What's going on? Team: It's Ricky with tech Solutions here with a quick little market update 18.4k on the day Again, This is following with my Tesla short from yesterday: I recapped yesterday I showed that I was down $60 on Tesla. It was nearly a break even day just because I entered my Tesla short a little bit too early during the pre-market session. we were able to get in, it sold off I covered relatively pretty early, and then I reentered during my live trading session with the Lp P team again.
I Do trade live every morning and if you want to tune on in, it's the second link in the description down below. With that being said, we literally did exactly what we intended or what we were working towards yesterday. So we do have and have had a previous support of 212. Yesterday, the market ran up.
This is where I got really encouraged to short the market as the As Tesla has been consistently selling off following the news that Elon might want to take his t talents elsewhere when coming down to uh, developing Ai and Robotics unless he gets more equity and more voting rights for Tesla. So pretty much he said is give me more ownership and give me more voting rights or I'm not going to continue to develop Robotics and AI with Tesla right as he's as he's working on um, the Optimus robot. With that being said, True Market direction for Tesla has been bearish based off of recent patterns. So when the Market rallied when Tesla rallied and became very overbought, it really encouraged me to want to short it because I knew the downside potential.
I knew the true Direction It later happened today, walked away with 18K on the day, very happy about it. It's coming right back down to previous support levels around 22. It was a perfect setup, as close to perfect as possible. Um, but this just shows you that it's not always that your your plan is wrong, it's just about timing right and some days you know Market's just not going to be in your favor that given day.
If news isn't relevant enough, today, the Market's actually pulling on back. It looks like it's trying to bounce back very quickly right now with the market sold off today. And if you look at it on the larger time frames, it looks like we're getting ready for a nice little pullback down to lows of 394. But the reason why is due to retail sales.
Retail sales? Well, two reasons: retail sales came out for December. A little bit stronger than what was expected. This was released 1 hour before the Market opens. came in at 6% versus the expectation of 4% %.
someone might comment of like, well, isn't n isn't it naturally expected that people are going to spend more in the month of December because that's what's being reported because that's Christmas and people normally spend more No, that's already factored in, it exceeded that expectation. Which again, we are expecting the Federal Reserve in about a week and a half to be cutting interest rates, right? This data does not support a rate cut. A rate cut would show that inflation and that spending is being kept at a cool pace. This is showing an economy that is thriving that is doing better than what is expected. And it's a very different way to look at the market, but it's the way that the Federal Reserve looks at it. If the economy is slowing down, then the Federal Reserve can begin to cut interest rates. If the economy is doing better, they really can't justify cutting interest rates, Which means that are they going to continue to pause? Or will they potentially cut interest rates? Or I'm sorry, increase interest rates if the economy begins to do too good too quick. Again, a very confusing way of thinking about it, but that's how the market works.
The second reason that the market is selling off is that the 10year treasury yield went up today. Uh, and it's currently trading at Uh 1.12% The easiest way that I can explain this to you is that it pretty much takes away demand from the market. So being able to invest in something like treasury uh, bonds, it's a safe. It's viewed as a safer form of investment, and this rate is pretty much almost guaranteed right by the Federal government.
So it as markets right Looking at overall NASDAQ market and we look at all-time highs NASDAQ markets and S&P 500 and DOW Jones are trading very at very high levels. Can they continue to trade higher of course, but they are trading very high. with that take being taken into consideration once we begin to see other avenues that are safer plays because the markets could begin to pull on back so it's not guaranteed that they're going to make any money if they continue to stay invested. So when you see that uh treasury yields are going up, it becomes more attractive to maybe take money that you already have invested in the market and putting it into treasury bonds.
That is where the shift begins to happen. This shift of demand, treasury bonds become more attractive. Market's more overbought. You take your money and you put it into another area that can be considered to be more safe, especially at overbought levels and especially during a presidential election year.
So something to take into consideration. Also, not too sure if you guys heard the the news. uh, but Trump is doing relatively pretty well in his campaign. I'm sure that is instilling some fear for you know, I I'll let you, uh, finish finish my sentence when it comes down to that.
But overall, um, you know we are beginning to see some form of shift of potential change of Direction and I. Just want you to be aware, markets are a little bit more on the overbought side and it's not that the market has to pull on back. Don't get upset over that, right? I'm just making you aware that you can't be surprised if they do pull on back at these overbought levels. and again, why try to predict when you can simply try to prepare right? That's the beautiful thing about this Market is that I don't even try to focus so much on the day today, but try to look at the overall big picture. What are big and solid plays that you can take that can make money and that's exactly what I try to do with my Lpp team and giving them a better understanding of the true direction of where the market is right now and where it could be going. but again, I'll leave that up to them. Um, if you guys want to watch me Trad live as soon as tomorrow that is the second link in the description down below and I Hope to see you there. If not I appreciate that I Hope that I earned a thumbs up in this video.
And don't forget to subscribe. I'll keep you guys up to date with what's going on with the market. Also, don't forget 4 days left for our Tesla giveaway. We're giving away a Tesla Model 3 and it ends in Just 4 days on January 21st and all it takes is one lucky entry for me to be handing you the keys in Just 4 days.
So if you want to learn more about it again, you can literally buy anything from shop techbuds or you can click the fourth Link in the description down below I Appreciate your time, hope that run a thumbs up. Please consider subscribing And like always, let's make sure that we end the year on a green not take care t.
We need to make America πΊπΈ Great Again.
Do y'all think tomorrow will be green?
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Bigodinho de mafioso π
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