Hey everyone Me: Kevin here. Well, the Federal Reserve's favorite Pce numbers just came out I'll give you a little readoff of some of the Pce numbers: uh, This Is the personal consumption expenditures uh, price index, and uh, in my opinion, it kind of follows a CPI Uh, it is. Uh, it's it's a less popular report. It's a report that less people pay attention to I feel like, but it is the one that the FED uses.

I Think the most important thing to remember about the Pce is the Fed's goal when they say we have to get to two percent. Inflation is the Pce number, and so a lot of people forget that PC is generally a lot lower than CPI and the Pce is uh, is what the FED is using to get to two percent. But it's not just two percent. it's an average of two percent, right? So uh, we'll talk more about that and Fed implications in a moment.

But let's hit the numbers. So uh, the the most important numbers uh, in my opinion, are uh, obviously the uh, month over month and year-over-year inflationary numbers. The expectation on month over month was point one. We got point one.

The Last Read was point three. So we're actually moving really close to that zero number. That's great because I think it's just going to be a few months before we start getting negative numbers. When we start getting negative numbers, oh man, that's going to be glorious, glorious times.

When we start getting negative numbers on the month over month Pce and I think we will, we'll start seeing that. uh, next year. and uh, this year is over Within uh, seven, Eight days here. So good riddance.

2022, You sucked. Uh, so month over month again. Came in at point one. The expectation was point one.

The last was 0.3 Year over year. We uh, we, we nailed it. Uh, with uh, 5.5 the expectation was 0.5 or 5.5 so no real change there. But it is down from 6.0 you didn't have.

You did have a little bit of an upward revision though of The Last Read The Last Read They revised up from six to six point One. So they revised the last inflation report a tiny little bit. Uh, which is not so great because they also did that with the month over month number. so they you know I think we're seeing celamacy here I Want to look really quick, but it looks like we were seeing a little bit of red.

Yeah, we're seeing a little bit of red uh on on the indices right now I Believe Personally, that's because the uh, the last report was revised up so you have the month over month read in the last report that was 0.3 and it moved up to point four. and uh, the year over year from 6.0 to 6.1 See a little bit of a take up there in the last one. Personal spending in the last one moved up to from 0.8 to 0.9 That's quite a bit now. Uh, that that is the October a report so we want to now consider.

Okay, well what do we have for uh, uh. Core core came in month over month and this report at Uh I'm sorry, this is. this is the November report. so this is your Black Friday report.

Uh, this covers uh November The last one was October I Want to be clear about that? This is the November report. The core numbers came in at a month over month. Point Two: Uh, expectation was 0.2 Last report though again moved from point two to point three, so a little hotter on that last report. With those revisions up, and then the year-over-year core was expected to be uh 4.6 came in at 4.7 So also one tenth of a percent a little bit hotter.

So you know, relative to expectations, there are definitely some things here that came in uh, either on the money or or that year-over-year core came in uh, smidge. uh 110 thought uh, but uh, but I think what? What's something that uh is upsetting markets potentially a little bit more is the fact that hey, when when the last report gets revised up, uh, people get concerned that okay, well now if we have good ones, what if those get revised up? So now people worry, uh, there's there's always a lot of worry and fear I mean that's uh, that's really what the market is right now and and it's really because everybody's fearful about. oh, what's the FED gonna do? Which makes sense. We'll talk about that in just a moment.

So, uh, durable Good orders? Uh, expected to be negative one percent came in double that negative 2.1 percent. Uh, then, uh, personal income expected to be 0.33 Came in at Point Four. So that's another side there. Where okay expectation is.

we're spending at Uh 0.3 more, which would be annualized 3.6 more that actually came in at Point Four. And this is something we talked about yesterday was that Services side inflation, right? People still spending money That GDP report for that Q3 for those Q3 numbers? Uh, still coming in, uh, hotter than than, uh, than hoped if anything being revised up, right. We had the same problem yesterday, and that led to a pretty substantial sell-off in markets yesterday. Although it does look like markets right now, at least, uh, in pre-market are trying to recover at least someone here.

Uh, you can see that here. you've got a uh, uh, you know, negative 2.5 percent day yesterday. on the NASDAQ uh, this thing was down almost four percent on the day yesterday, it was pretty wild. You just did get a nice little shift to the downside here.

uh, almost about one percent down. But we did. Uh, it looks like we are recovering that right now. and now we're uh, now we're potentially green by about a quarter of a percent, so we'll see what happens here.

Uh, let's look at the actual Pce for a moment here. So other than what I've already talked about I don't know. Let's see here. Uh, yeah.

See, well. hold on a second. Okay, that's actually let's see here. Hold on a second personal income.

Okay here. Uh, the 19.8 billion dollar increase in current dollar Pce November reflected an increase of 79.2 billion in spending for services that was partially offset by 59.5 billion decrease in Goods See this? this is. you know, Again, one of those things where we look and the FED says look, we got to get that Services spending down and uh, right now we're just, we're just not getting that Services fitting down. Uh, but then again, that's also because you know our economy is not totally dead.

You know it's like, uh, you know how far do uh? Does the FED really, uh, actually want to drive us into the hole? Uh, you know, so far it seems like they're a little aggressive and they want to go pretty deep. Uh, but uh, you know we'll We'll talk a little bit about Fed reaction here in just a moment and what I think they might be up to? So uh, all right then we've got uh I realized I never did a thumbnail for this, so let me do that really quick. Uh, and then I want to read I want to talk Fed reaction here in the whole office. There we go.

See, you have to. You have to do the the inhale. That's uh, if you ever do YouTube thumbnails, it's all about the inhale for the shock face. Okay, uh I I Love it.

Also, when people are thinking you shouldn't have Jack Jesus uh and then I'm like, all right, let's tell TMZ no more exciting articles on the headlines and every newspaper is not allowed to have a good leading story. Uh, it's all right, they're not in media they don't know uh. within Services the largest contributor to the increase was spending on housing. So this is, actually, in my opinion, a good thing.

Okay, if the report has its largest increase on on housing, we know that housing is starting to deflate, uh, substantially. So that's actually a good thing. I'm happy about that. If if this was outside of housing, it'd be a little bit more problematic because, uh, you know, housing at least measured by a rental inflation is expected to be uh, uh uh.

plummeting. Federal Reserve Just did a report on exactly that. Uh, I'll pull that up quickly. but Feds also realized they're counting numbers.

wrong? Uh, when it comes to um, uh, you know, uh, jobs. Finally, the Philadelphia Fed woke up to that. but uh yeah, if you take a look here on uh, on this chart, you could see it here. Uh, this is the Fed's new measure for trying to measure rental inflation and sort of the pink uh line that I highlighted there is uh, your indicator of falling, uh, rental inflation.

So they're definitely aware that that rental inflation is coming down. which is, which is a very good thing. So uh, okay, going back here for a moment. All right, what do we got? So then within Goods spending on new motor vehicles mainly light new trucks uh was the leading contributor to the decrease.

Yeah, this is something critical as well as that Autos in a recession are something that that you know people spend less on now. I've always had the belief that uh, that you know as long as YouTube can still, uh, not YouTube as long as Tesla can still sell, it's uh, it's it all of vehicles that it produces. Maybe it could be a somewhat recession insulated uh, but that's from an EPS count. The problem is Tesla's had most of its decline between earnings here.

uh, not because of earnings and I believe that's mostly uh, because of uh of Twitter uh drama and nonsense and uh, some of Elon's politics. uh which I think he's actually dialed back on you know I was talking to my father-in-law about this yesterday. uh because a lot of people are concerned about this and uh and and I do think that after after Elon went after fauci he he got enough of a lashing that he realized you know this is this is not my place like I actually don't mind it when Elon kind of says things like wow, this seems like a lot of spending on the uh, you know, uh spending Bill Oh wow, that's crazy. How are all these people crossing the border? Oh wow, what's going on over here in California You know, like him, kind of like pointing out stories that seem shocking.

Totally fine because now he's just reacting to somebody else's sort of opinion of of what's going on or or some news that's going on. But when he starts yapping about about like, you know, prosecute, Fouchy, it just that that pisses off a lot of people on the left. um, and uh, it's just. it's not worth it.

But again, I think he stepped back from that. So I'm optimistic on that. I'm optimistic that he's chilling uh, and realizing that that's not okay. So um, detailed, uh, info and every time I say that's not okay, people think it should be okay.

The richest, second richest person in the world should be able to say this stuff on the internet? Sure, then just don't run an advertising business. It's that simple. You can be as rich as you want, but if you're begging people for money because your advertising business is going bankrupt, stop shooting yourself in the foot. Uh, detailed information on monthly Pce spending can be found.

That's fine I Care about that? Uh, let's see. personal outlays without a personal savings, personal savings rate. Personal savings rate was 2.4 percent. It's pretty low, but wait a minute.

that actually I think is a little bit higher than usual. Where's the personal savings rate for sole savings, right? Personal saving. Let me see if I have it on my tables here because uh, personal spend is yeah I have all the personal spending. Let's see Pce savings BC because I it to me it feels like that's actually up Pce savings right.

By the way, if you're a course member in Oklahoma we're going to do a a little sudden meet up. uh, today. So if you're a course member I'd love to uh I'd love to meet you. Okay, Personal savings rate Okay, Ah, here we go.

All right. So it's actually it's not too terribly changed. So here's the personal savings rate for Pce and we were at 3.2 2.8 2.4 Uh, 2.3 was October we're at 2.4 now. Okay, so that's actually not much of a change and that's about the bulk.

Now let's talk about Fed response to this: Um, so based on the last Federal Reserve report I would expect that the FED looks at this data and says yeah pretty much in line. You know it's not shockingly lower than expectations. It's kind of at expectations and in some cases it's a little bit higher. and uh, that's kind of the trend that we've been seeing.

The problem is the Federal Reserve really has this belief now that they kind of need to keep their their boot on our neck for a little longer. Uh, then then I think markets really thought was necessary and that's why we've seen this kind of rough sell down in the last few days. This report did just take inflation break evens up fractionally, which is unfortunate because it just shows that again. this.

these kind of reports reiterate inflation expectations being roughly stable. uh, which we don't want. We really want to see those inflation expectations fall. The more these inflation expectations are stable, the the more uh, the more pain we potentially face in markets now.

Uh, It's also worth noting that you know the Federal Reserve's next summary of economic projections doesn't come out until March 22nd. uh I I think that's you want to mark your calendar for that like I think the Feb one meeting is not going to be as important I I Don't know I I Wouldn't be surprised as long as we continue to get these inflationary reports. I Really hope to get the FED goes for 25, but so far we actually don't have any kind of indicators. Let's just see what the market thinks it probably is going to price in more of a 50.

Uh, but maybe maybe it'll be 50 50. uh, see here. I'm actually very curious now to see what the Market's pricing in. Oh oh, it's almost certain it's going to be a 25 basis point.

High Well that's actually really interesting I mean there's not even like I thought this was going to be 50 50. Now that actually makes me a little nervous because you know the FED uh what? if the Fed's a little more aggressive? um, you know, then we have the price in some work. Some more downside. So well it's good that the market thinks it's 25 and the FED likes to do what the market does.

Boy, let's hope the FED does what the market wants. uh uh wow, that is that is quite convincing. Uh, here at 98.6 for a 25 basis point hike? um and we don't have you know. Another thing that bothers me is the fed's been really quiet.

I think they've like gone away for Christmas Uh, you know they they disappeared because look at this. Nick T our boy Nick t Okay Wall Street Journal Homie. He's like the mouthpiece piece of the FED right like this right here. He should just say Nick T is the chief Economics correspondent for the Fed.

That's what it should say. that's a compliment. Okay I like that. but anyway, he has not posted since December 14th I think he went on vacation.

uh I'm a little um uh, you know I'm a little disappointed Nick how could you leave us during this time? Come on. Nick Where are you? Uh so anyway now you got FedEx Warning customers: some holiday weekend packages could be delayed. Come on man, it's Christmas oh I Want my last minute gifts? Oh yeah, yeah, uh uh uh. All right.

so let's take a brief look at the markets. So a brief look over here at the pre-markets Owlettes at 86 cents. Holy moly. 19 up Seven cents for very good foods? Uh, smiled.

wrecked five percent but they're sitting at 40 cents. Archimoto's under four bucks. There's good old shift. Oh man.

well glad we sold that one a long time ago. You know that though, once they use car shortage hit. That's when we got out of shift and we talked about this on this channel. uh, quite regularly.

uh in our live streams when we talked about it. but um, it's crazy. Uh, that Carvana is, you know is a company that just didn't prepare for a glut of used cars. It feels like because Carvana is is really the one that is knocking on the door here of bankruptcy.

Uh, you know with their bondholders getting together to to prepare for a bankruptcy. and I think it's so wild that they just kept spending on advertising and people and expanding spanning expand. They didn't save for a rainy day at all and it blows my mind because nobody expected the used car bubble to go on forever. I Mean that's obvious everybody knew at some point used cars were going to become cheaper than once the supply chain is corrected and it's um, it's crazy how just sometimes you get companies they don't save for a rainy day and it's so scary.

I Mean that's why you know. like for example, with House Act I am so freaking conservative with that company because I realize we're you know we're We're in recessionary times and right now we're just like we'll just collect paychecks on treasuries while we wait. uh for good deals. and I'm starting to get people sending like this is how I know we're getting closer in my opinion to good deals and uh, and pain in the real estate market.

I'm starting to get emails. Okay, I'm starting to get emails from people going gotta Fixer-Upper I Think this will be great for House hack. The seller needs to sell immediately. They don't care if they sell it for 15 under market value on top of you know what, Whatever you think is fair, they just need it gone tomorrow.

Can you take a look at it? Because they would give you a big discount if you could just close cash tomorrow And I'm thinking to myself like I I could just wait six months and I'm gonna get even more discounts and then I'll get panic off of that. uh is is an expectation I have based based on at least the way things are trending now. Uh, I mean I'm in no rush right now though. um though I I You know it does make sense to start hunting.

uh and and start looking at different areas. Uh so I'll be talking to some course members again in Oklahoma today. Uh, and you know I'm a big fan of of I Want to understand uh, every kind of, uh, every kind of, uh, different Market that we've got. So I'm gonna go to.

you know, the hot pandemic markets and the not pan hot pandemic markets and the hot markets now and the not hot markets Now we're going to share a lot of that on the channel, so make sure you're subscribed for the journey. It's going to be really entertaining. So what else we have here we have. um.

end phase at 302 you've got Honest Company and a three bucks. GameStop's at twenty dollars. Wow, Wow, that's incredible I didn't realize this thing bled down that much. Is that true? Did they split? No, they had to have split then because GameStop ran to like 400.

Yeah, they did a split. Ah okay, what is a four to one? Oh wow, they did a four to one split I didn't even know that. Okay, that makes sense. So this is more like 80 bucks.

Okay, all right, because I remember the sitting at like 130 forever? Well, I can't even fall that much I would have seen something about that. Huh? Who knew? Well, like only every GameStop holder ever. Um, wow. All right, let's move into the downside right now next door.

AMC Four bucks. Uh Geo Bumble Overstock Newegg Here's a firm at nine bucks for a firm lemonade 14 bucks. We did a really good analysis on the ensure Tech space in the course member lives. That was fun.

Yeah, remember I I Regularly like to do fundamental analysis in the course member life. Sometimes we just do q a kind of depends on the day. uh, but sometimes we go pretty deep in companies and they're pretty fun to reference back to as well. So that way even like new course members can come in and go well.

what did Kevin say and he just look and it's like oh there it is Qualcomm always used to sit at 140 and now it's sitting at 110. it's remarkable. Look at these on the basis here of market cap for a moment. Let's do here we go.

All right. So you got Apple at 132. Apple been so resilient, just incredible. Microsoft Uh 237 Google's under 90 bucks I Remember when it fell under a hundred and uh, it doesn't.

It doesn't seem like Google's really done the layoffs like others, almost almost at the bottom. Again, they're for Google levels. Doesn't seem like they've done uh, some pairing. although they've they've uh, it does seem like they've started.

Warning: there's Tesla Amazon JPM Video 152 Nice Yeah, this is a unique time as well to go to look at. Oh I Heard TS Tsmc By the way, Uh, considering a uh a plant in uh a in Europe which is pretty incredible. but uh, here's a company that uh, you know along with some of these these other chip makers I think is a great time you know, not personalized Financial advice for you obviously. but I think it's a great time to move from.

you know, stocks who have losses in into potentially an active ETF that has a lot of exposure to chips Nvidia AMD Tsf. The reason I think that is you know people are so bearish on the chip sector. especially. you know Micron wasn't exactly great, but uh Micron barely moved after that and it shows you when they have a bad uh does look like they ended up moving a little bit more during the day.

Oh with 3.5 Okay, that's not a big deal. so Micron reported earnings and everybody's like oh my gosh, these are terrible. The stock only moved down 3.9 percent. You remember when socks were moving like 20 on earnings? To me that shows you a lot of the pains already priced in for for the chip makers.

and so uh I think uh 2023 could be uh, really powerful for uh, chip makers and uh, and and I'm really excited to see uh what what 2023 holds I Honestly just can't wait to change the calendar to 2023 because this this year's had its uh, had its craziness. uh somebody's asking how accurate or zestimates I would not uh you know pay any attention to Zestimates in this market because you probably should look at this estimate and realize that's based on Old comps and we're in a declining market. So uh, you know when you're doing this, uh, you know I I uh I would be less uh, enthusiastic about using Zestimates. This estimates are fun when the Market's doing this.

you know, going straight up. um, because then often you can beat them. Yeah, uh, an active ETF in your Roth Um, yeah, so the the benefit of an active ETF in my opinion, like the tax benefit is, is really such that you could have. It's almost like having a Roth when it comes to avoiding like capital gains when you trade stocks.

Uh, it's almost like having that on as many stocks as possible right now. I Think that's that's uh, that's awesome. But yeah, I mean if you're already in a Roth uh, you know, maybe maybe that's for what you use your trading for if you do trading or whatever. if, uh, if you want to trade and reallocate yourself if you don't want to, of course, sure, then active ETFs are nice because you could just throw your money inside it.

Forget it because somebody else is moving moving around the allocations every so often. Yeah, the margins were tightening for Carvana I don't have that handy at the moment? That's a really good question. Let's see here. Yeah, all right, let me just see what what else uh is uh, top of mind for Mark It's over here.

So us core Pce inflation cools consumer spending Mrs Forecast That's fine. We already went. Went through the numbers at the beginning of this video. The report indicates that consumers lost momentum last month and made higher interest rates and inflation, while the strength of the jobs Market Rising Wages have bolstered household spending Americans tapped into their savings and are leaning more on credit cards.

Raising the question of whether consumers will be able to drive economic growth throughout 2023? Hmm. Inflation-adjusted outlays for merchandise dropped 0.6 The worst since February Yeah, Okay, so that's fine. We covered a lot of this. What else we have here? Um, monstrous winter blast batters U.S Amid holiday travel Rush Harris Shooting leaves Three dead? That's not good, our boy.

Ben Mullins Over there. Right now. it's all. that's actually pretty rare on the 10th.

Oh wow, that's pretty rare that you get, um, shootings over there. That's terrible, huh? Jeez. All right. Um, yeah.

So there you have it. Good luck today, folks. Thank you so much. Uh, check out the programs on building your wealth.

Linked it down below. We have a coupon code expiring on the 27th. that's right after Christmas If you want us to uh, deliver, uh, the course to anybody for uh Christmas email Kevin Meet Kevin.com and you can buy it and and we could sort of be like an email Christmas gift that shows up. uh some people have really enjoyed that.

uh I think that's pretty neat. So uh and uh, you know if you need a custom bundle or anything, you can email us as well. Thank you so much for being here my friends and we'll see in the next one. Goodbye.