Cpi data report was just released and it caused the market to absolutely Skyrocket today. So in this video we're going to be breaking it down and one thing not enough people are talking about right now, let's go ahead and start sharing my screen. So again, you guys can find this report from the Bls.gov CPI This is the October 2023 CPI report which came out on November 14th today. Uh, today 1 hour before the market opened.

Uh, we came in at 3.2% The Market's expectation was 3 .3 so inflation report came in lower than what was expected. Our previous inflation rate was 3.7% went from 3.7 down to 3.2 you can see in the month of October Based off of all items, we did not see an increase for the last 12 months. This has not happened. Our Core CPI went from 4.1% to 4% I Want to make sure that I can show you this very quickly so we can see overall all items less food and energy.

Where is it on this day thing? So all items less food and energy came in. So all items less food and energy came in at 4% So you can see that right here. 4% So we went from 4.1 to 4% That's not a very significant drop and that's what I want to bring to your attention. Remember the Federal Reserve doesn't care so much about overall CPI but they focus so much more on Core CPI because that's all that they can really influence.

And if Core CPI is not coming in or not coming down as low or as quick as they would wanted to, then can they justify a rate hike in December right for the next F1c meeting? According to this Fed rate monitor tool there was, and look at that. look at that. there is a 99.8% probability that the Federal Reserve is going to pause. Did you see that shift? We went from a 15% probability that the Federal Reserve was going to rate hikes or or raise interest rates.

and now it's a 99.8% probability that the Federal Reserve is going to pause. So that is what the market is factoring in now right? Inflation is is low enough that they believe that the Federal Reserve cannot justify based off of recent economic data another rate hike. So they think that they're going to pause and a potential cut according to Jerome pal. In his last speech, he says that the Federal Reserve is not even talking about a rate cut.

So that's just what I've heard from them, right? NASDAQ Market and I know I can't be the only one. How many of you guys have fomo? I Just want to share this with you to make it a little bit easier to tolerate the Fomo. First off, let's talk about the actual percentage if you didn't hold this position overnight or if you didn't take the the trade pre-market from what we hit highs of to where we're at right now on Tqqq, it's gained less than 05% and this is that I would say the thing that really confuses a lot of people they're like, but Ricky this thing's up 6% if you tuned on in to my live trading session today with the Lpp team, we made it very, very clear: NASDAQ Market on their big green days TQ Q gaps up and hits 7% That's their average really really big day and that's nearly what we hit highs of today. So when I saw that the market right when it opened was up about 5 to 6% I I knew that statistically speaking, the really big days being 7% and and it's warranted right? good CPI Data report: I was like okay, we're at 6% My upset potential is about 1% based off of the really big days of a 7% Target What's my downside risk? My upside potential to make % does not outweigh the downside risk of losing 6% And that's what made it very easy for me.

Or that's what what made it easier for me to not feel the need to force a position on a trade that already happened. and I I Think that's just the easiest way to put it. Like if you're not already in this, you missed it. There's there's no ANS ifs or butts.

It's just it is what it is. But let me share this with you. if you are cash and this is the beautiful thing about being cash, meaning that you're not in any position, this thing gapped up so much and if we look at this on the 4-Hour time frame, we could see that we are testing previous highs. And it's not that we have to get rejected here.

But if you continue to stay patient and this thing ends up being an overreaction, we cannot be surprised that if this thing begins to sell off because you are cash, then you are in a position to take advantage of anything you want to. And that is the beautiful thing where yes, you missed out on this small play. Don't waste your day trades when the margin is not worth it. I Cannot stress this enough if you have Fomo.

if you're getting greedy. I I I Mean you're an adult. do whatever it is that you want, but just look at the numbers. What's your upside potential versus your downside risk? Today, in my opinion, is just the day not worth trading if the market continues to hold here and continues to consolidate, The play already happened and you have to accept that it doesn't Doesn't mean that you can't take advantage of future plays, but as of right now, we're pretty much trading sideways.

There is no real progress and we are so overbought that if it does begin to pull on back you, first off, you don't even have to short the market if you don't want to. I Get I Get it that people don't feel comfortable shorting I Respect that, but then just let it pull on back and establish its support and wait for the next trade opportunity. Understand that you might have missed today, which again, it's very obvious that if you didn't trade it you already. If you didn't hold it overnight, you already missed it.

and that's there. There's there's no excuse for that. I Mean it, Just it. It already happened.

Accept it. But it doesn't mean that you can't prepare for the next one. And that is. The beautiful thing about trading is that one day does not define you as a Trader I mean even if you had a really good day today and you don't lock in profits and then it gives it all back again, it's like you need to do your part of having proper entries and proper exits and making sure that your risk to reward ratios are worth it that you're taking advantage of opportunities that are worth it.

The best analogy that I can give you is let's say that you have a current job that pays you $25 an hour. Great. You know you're You're valued at $25 an hour you show up to work, you feel valued. Does that mean that on your off time you can't work for $5 an hour? Well, of course you can.

But opportunity cost is it going to be worth it? So that's the same concept with this. It's like it doesn't mean that you can't make money right. just like you can with the $5 an hour job. but it is it worth your time.

Is it worth the risk? And is it worth the trade? That's the question to ask yourself or did you already miss out on it? This is the question that you have to answer yourself. I Know it's super. It's much easier said than done. and I know this firsthand.

but I can't stress it enough. Save those day trades for days that are actually worth it. Now if this thing was showing steady progress of higher highs and higher lows, then that would be a different story. But it's not.

It's consolidating, it's showing signs of a resistance and lack of progress. Ress and to me that is a red flag. I'll let you decide in the comment section. what is it to you? Do you think that this is a trade that you want to take or do you see there to be pullback potential? and it's probably in your best interest for your future self to wait to wait for it to pull on back? You don't have to short it to wait for it to pull on back and wait for direction and opportunity.

To be more clear, the risk to reward ratios to be in your favor. Again, $25 an hour versus $5 an hour Opportunity Cost Focus on those quality trades. Trade less profit more. You guys know what we've talked about before.

I Kind of rhymed um, but tomorrow PPI Data Report: We're going to be talking about that. Retail Sales again. Some very important economic reports that are all going to be released tomorrow. Um, right when either Market opens or 1 hour before, we're going to be talking about it during our live trading session.

Once again again, I've said it once. I said I'll say it again I Trade Live every single morning with my Lpp team. You get to see my good trades. You get to see my bad trades.

You get to see everything raw in real time. live if you want to tune on in if you're tired of missing out. If you're an absolute beginner and you feel like it would be valuable for you to be able to get access to this, it's the second link in the description down below. It's a one-time payment, lifetime access.

And yes, we're running our biggest sale. so it's the second link in the description down below. If you have any questions before joining, shoot me a direct message via Discord or via Instagram which is also linked in the description and also I am using the Weeble trading application which is linked down below. If you have any questions, feel free to message me.

Like all always, let's make sure that we end the year on a green note. Take Care Team.