Hey, what's going on guys? it's Ricky so uh, CPI data report is today. it's going to be released in the next two minutes. Uh, wanted to go live very quickly. Uh, and talk about what the Market's expectation or their forecast is.

So very, very simple. You could find this, um, every single time before it comes out on what the market is expecting. Either through your economic calendar this one says a 2% increase that's going to be for the month of December because it gets reported on the following month now January Um, or Investing.com tells you. uh, the overall expectation previous 3.1 So they actually expect inflation to go up to 3.2 So um, this report can actually be found on Bls.gov CPI We've broken it down many times.

where, um, remember, they're just adding the new month, then taking away the old month. So an increase of 02 with taking away 0.1 Again, you could kind of come up with a, uh, obscure math. Uh, there's actually an exact formula on how this. CPI data uh, the inflation report.

I'm sorry, the inflation rate is calculated, so it's not just adding all of these up, adding one, and taking one away. it's just the way to get a rough estimate without using that exact formula. So they they expect an increase of 0 2% in the month of December they take away .1% difference is around 0.1 So again, that's just something to take into consideration. But uh, this should be released any second.

Now we have about 20 seconds until this CPI data report is released. If the report comes out better than what's expected, so lower the market could rally if it comes out higher than what's expected. Market could drop pretty hard. so let's go ahead and see what the market um, factors in today.

So uh, we will be breaking it down again I Want to keep today's video short and sweet and here goes pulling on back I Love that! Let me get to my recent let's get a Tqqq I'd Love to buy some. All right buying a th shares. let's see how low we go. Let's see what it comes out comes out with 3.4 significantly higher than what is expected.

And this is what I wanted to see because everyone thinks that okay, the Federal Reserve is just going to be cutting interest rates right from the very start. This does not support a rate cut by any means. This supports a potential pause, but this shows that inflation is actually going up more than or quicker than what is expected. So from the eyes of the Federal Reserve the reason that the market is dropping right? So NASDAQ is dropping right now.

This simply shows me that oh wow. Okay, inflation is actually stickier than what was expected. So is the Federal Reserve still going to cut interest rates? I Don't see how they could justify cutting interest rates when the inflation report is actually coming out higher than what is expected. So here's the January release says all items.

Um, yep, so it says index for all items. This should be everything. Let me double check. Yeah, we have three point all items uh, including food and energy 3.4% And then let's check out Core Energy I Want to see if the PDF is available right away? Looks like we have a handful of things dropping right now.

Here it goes: January So we have December at the expectation was a 0.2% increase? This is A3 We're taking away the previous month and then again, what is our inflation rate? It's super easy to read this once you actually find the line item. So all items come out at 3.4% inflation for the last 12 months and then it should have Core CPI which is all items less food and energy Rose 3.9% in the last 12 months. So where does this show us? It shows that uh, all items less food and energy. So Core CPI is actually dropping.

Overall CPI is actually rising and greater than what was expected. So I Really like this? I'm going to go ahead and continue to Dollar C Cost average into it. Um, not that it has to recover right now, but we know how bullish the market has been. It tries to justify and find any reason to try to go up.

Um, so I Wouldn't be surprised if even though it is bad news, it's not good news for the market of what was just released. So what was Core CPI again? I Want all of you guys to have access to this? This is I don't right? This is one thing that I love to do on my channel is we love to show you the websites that we use that's available to the public where these reports get released. If you're someone that's trying to copy someone every step of the way and you don't want to do any of the work yourself I'm letting you know, letting you know now you should probably just quit. This is not a market where you're going to be spoonfed every step of the way and you do no work.

This is a market that's challenging and if you really want to understand how this works, then you need to put in the work right. So Bls.gov CPI tomorrow is going to the Uh to be the PPI Data report which is the producer price index report. You could see that overall CPI came in higher than what's expected. Core CPI higher than what was expected.

but we also have initial claims and continuing claims that was released. Initial claims are the number of people that are file in for the first time came in at 202 which was less than what was expected. Continuing claims are people that have continued to file for unemployment. Came in a little bit lower than what was the prior.

Here it goes already beginning to cover. Let's see if we show steady signs of progress. Uh, the stock that he bought goes up when the market goes down. No, this is Tqqq.

I'm going with the market right now so I'm not trying to short the market right now. I I Think you have my position confused. so Ricky why are you going long? If it's bad news, it might sound confusing, but and again, it doesn't have to to go this way. What has the market been doing for the past few days? It's been finding any any reason, any and every reason to go up.

What has the market been doing for the past year? It's been finding any reason to go up. So although it is bad news, it's not horrible news, it's just a little bit worse than what was expected. I Just think that again, the Federal Reserve is going to pause instead of cut interest rates. which, um, there it goes.

which, really, um, isn't detrimental to the comp. uh, isn't DET detrimental to the market? So when I saw that it sold off in my eyes, it's been finding any reason to try to recover. So just like we've seen in the past before, when it sells off and then it quickly recovers shortly after. This doesn't surprise me that it trades this way.

remember as as you continue to watch the market right I haven't traded Tqs and S in about a week. A week and a half, right? I've been too busy shorting the crap out of coin or going long yesterday, right? You guys saw my $32,000 day yesterday. Um, on on coin. I've been paying attention to NASDAQ and I've been paying attention to Tqqq but I haven't really been trading it so.

but I've been. um I've been well aware that this has been a constant characteristic of TQ Q and NASDAQ that anytime that it pulls on back and it's an overreaction like this during any economic report it will find right It sold off all pre-market yesterday, but right when the Market opens, it rallies, it finds any reason to try to to continue to recover right? The I mean I don't I don't want to like, really get into that, but it's 2024 and there's a presidential election. The current President in power needs everything to be in his favor for the possibility of him getting reelected. the stock market being one of them, right? So it doesn't surprise me that the market, the stock market as a whole is thriving.

Does it make sense? Yeah, kind of right. Inflation is going down kind of not according to today, but it is going down. And are we going to get this like idea of interest rates understood and and together right? so we can drop interest rates. So demand begins to pick up, not just with real estate, but with with the entire economy as a whole.

I Think this is more discouraging for people that were waiting for lower interest rates because based off of what report was just released right now with the CP data report, it doesn't support the case that the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates anytime soon. It's showing that inflation went from 3.1% and it jumped all the way to 3.4% I Mean we can go down the list right? We can go down the list breaking down each line item that either saw an increase or a decrease for the month of December and that's fine, right? December line item. So again, this is food, this is energy. and then these are all the other items we pulling on back right now.

Yep, looks like we got reject. Ed Uh, still selling off right now so again doesn't have to make a full recovery and margin. and the spread on this isn't even that big I Want to double check to see if we can 2.73% It's not bad, it's not something that I would be, you know, upset in getting myself. So we have it here.

th000 shares all right. Got filled at$ 49.99 9 still dropping right now. So one thing that I do just a little uh trick I've shared it in Lpp. Um, but for those that are watching you might be asking Ricky what the heck? why are you buying with a limit order at $50.40 when the bid in the ask is at $502 or $505 Remember if I don't if the spread isn't too big and all I want to focus on is getting filled with my order and it's during premarket or aftermarket hour during extended hours.

I Just make sure that my limit price is higher than both to ensure that I instantly get filled. And it's not that I'm going to get filled at 5040 I'm going to still get filled in between or at the ask. but I get filled right away without having to type in the exact ask price each time. So just a little heads up on that.

Um, but yeah, so so not this time Bulls are trapped. Okay, that's great. We could. We could all have our own opinions and that's fine if if I don't see this as a bull trap right I mean it's it's a report that came in a little bit hotter than what is expected and if you think that the Market's going to continue to sell off today, all power to you wish you nothing but the best.

Um, so let's go ahead and go down these line items. Would you guys like me to break it down or you want me to end the live stream here? I'll leave it up. Leave it up to you guys. Do you guys want me to break down the CPI data report and how they came up with 3.4% and what contributed to our inflation rate? Or do we just want to leave it here? So make sure you drop a thumbs up.

How many of you guys do we have here? I Have no idea, We have about a thousand of you. Okay, so let's see if we can get this video to 500 likes. Is that too much to ask? I Don't even know how many likes we currently have, but break it down okay Again, if it's not too much to ask, we'd obviously appreciate you you dropping a thumbs up on this video. It helps out the channel.

Um, so you guys can let me know where we are at with um, the likes on this live stream. Okay, okay, that's fine. we'll do it. We I'll do it quick.

Okay I don't want to take too much of your guys' time and we need to prepare for the Lpp live session anyway. So again, this is a CPI data report. It's a monthly inflation report monthly that is released every single month. Normally it's released anywhere from like the 9th to the 14th of the month.

Okay, just so you know. Uh, the second thing that I want you to know is that inflation has been a really big Focus for the Federal Reserve inflation was at a 40-year high when it hit highs of 99.1% It's been on a steady decline until recently where we hit lows of right around 3% 3.1% and we've been kind of consolidating almost like a stock right at this support of three. But this resistance at four and this was the big thing that I've been bringing up is that, well, if inflation doesn't continue to go down, can the Federal Reserve justify interest rate? Cuts So they were raising interest rates. They've recently paused at least for the previous four meetings, and this is during the Fomc meeting.

So now the question is after this report, is the Federal Reserve going to pause? or are they going to cut interest rates? Very simple if this report, since this report came out hotter than what is expected. meaning inflation is higher, the Federal Reserve shouldn't have any reason to justify cutting interest rates because they can cut interest rates if inflation is is continuing to go down and inflation is cooling. But that's not the case of what we are seeing happen right now. So what items contributed to this inflation rate being higher? So let's go and break it down again.

This is super easy to read. This is the column of December and then these are the line items. So for all items right, we saw an increase of. 3% Uh, for food, we saw an increase of 2% food at home, an increase of 0.1 an increase, uh, food away from home, an increase of3 and it goes down the list right.

We have gas. Gas is all. Um, I said I Would say that gas is most consistently the largest contributor to why either inflation is going up or down. It's the one that fluctuates the modes, and It's the one that contributed the most when inflation was at 99.1% You guys remember when gas prices were all5 67 a gallon? This is something that caught that inflation um, month after month.

So you can see that the largest drop that we saw on this entire month for all these line items are Fuel Oil. Fuel Oil saw a decrease of 5.5% Um, and the one that I wanted to pay attention to. but again it goes down the list. We got fuel oil, we have electricity so on increase.

Uh we have what is that? uh I'm sorry electricity s an increase of 1.3% Uh Energy Services saw an increase of 0.9% We have utility gas pipe Services saw a decrease of 4% and then um, right here we have all items less food and energy an increase of 3% Then we go down the list. Commodities We see, uh, no change Right here We have new vehicles. saw an increase. So this is one of the first months and and I'm actually seeing this in real life right? If you ever pay attention to car prices, this is for you know, new new vehicles.

So new vehicles. We saw an increase of3 meaning that inflation is going up on that month over month. but used cars and trucks actually saw an increase of 0.5 So 2 months in a row car prices are going back up. Something to take into consideration.

Uh, all the other months we were seeing a steady decline. This is why you saw a lot of cars beginning to go down. And the really cool thing about this is that this is real life data right? So if you are in the market for potentially buying a new vehicle, then again or used vehicle, this tells you. Okay in um, inflation Because it was on a steady decline with new and new used vehicles.

Now inflation is kind of finding its support and beginning to pick it back up. That means that we should start seeing used and new vehicle car prices go back up again. This is kind of exciting for those that have been trying to maybe hold off on selling one of their vehicles. Something to take into consideration.

Um, but then again, it goes down the list. One of the only declines that we saw here was Medical Care Commodities Everything else was an increase. Um, here we see Services less energy services on an increase of point4 shelter increase of 0.5 transportation services an increase of 0.1 and medical care services an increase of 7. So again all together saw an increase of.

3 December saw an increase of. 3 Excuse me, but um, yep, that is the overall inflation report. I'm just going to type it out um in our live chat. So CPI 3.4% overall and what was it? What was it for Core? All items less food and energy came in at 3.9% for Core? Okay, so just when anyone begins to ask, what did the report come in at? What did the report come in at? Now you get guys all know, very simple to understand it's a CPI data report.

It simply tracks if inflation Um is going up or down and inflation has been a really big Focus Um for the Federal Reserve right? Because they've been debating. Are we going to continue to pause? Or are we going to begin to cut interest rates? So if this inflation report came in lower than what was expected, right? So the expectation was 3.2 if we came in at 3.1 or if we came in at Um, you know 3% 2.9 the market would be booming right now, right? Market would be making higher highs higher lows. All that good stuff because it's not so much about the inflation report, but it's about what it means for us. If that report came in lower than what's expected, then the Federal Reserve can justify cutting interest rates sooner than later.

Now what you should be seeing with a bunch of news headlines: Them talking about that inflation is sticky. Them talking about that inflation you know is holding at a higher level or went up and that the Federal Reserve cannot justify cutting interest rates and possibly just continue to pause. Um, maybe they could even entertain the idea of raising interest rates, but I don't really think that's going to happen as according to the last Fomc meeting Jerome Pal said nothing about um, raising interest rates? All right. Uh, can the market sell off today at Open Market Can do whatever it wants? It should never be a what if.

But again, I mean I don't I don't see why it would, right? but can it? Of course, of course it can. Anything can always happen. But as of right now, the main economic report was the CPI data report. The other few reports that we still have left for the remainder of the day is the Eia Natural Gas Inventory report and the Treasury Budget at 2 P.m.

eastern time. Tomorrow tomorrow it's going to be the PPI report, which is inflation on the producing side of things or production. but right now Market's just consolidating. We're still rejected by the EMA so it's not showing signs of a recovery.

So um, it doesn't really make much sense. I Mean there's no active trade as of right now, which is a thing that I'm beginning to realize. Um, so if we do get closer to that EMA line I'll probably reduce my position size on Tqqq that I bought down here. Uh, reduce the position And then if we break above EMA then I can always choose to reenter.

But we'll talk a little bit more about my trades during today's live trading session with the Lpp team. So again, I did link it. You don't have to join if You don't want to. Um, but I do trade live with them every morning I Trade live with one team and one team only and that is my Lpp team.

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