Hey everyone welcome back to another market, closing live stream. It is an earnings day which is going to be fun uh, although earnings really don't take off until tomorrow, we're going to get a little bit today and tomorrow's cpi data that's going to be big markets. A little nervous on that uh today, you really have just smaller companies. You've got uh pinnacle financial reporting, smart global holdings reporting.

Today, a few other companies reporting nothing crazy, big uh, tomorrow's going to be a lot more important, because tomorrow we have before the bell jp morgan delta, blackrock first republic, tomorrow, uh not that much okay, it's mostly before the bell tomorrow, yeah esports entertainment tomorrow and so On all right, so so really tomorrow, before the bell, we're gon na have a lot of activity. We're not only going to have uh some of the banks reporting in delta reporting, but we're going to have cpi data so tomorrow morning is going to be really interesting, because it's really going to start off the uh flavor of the rest of the year. Yeah we'll see how it goes, but i'm excited i'm also uh. You know i'm i'm good either way uh.

I think that's that's the way to go into this. If the market falls i'll go shopping again, i've got some money left. I did spend most of my cash in this last dip, which i was happy about uh, because i like being allocated, i don't i don't love sitting around in cash uh, but there's still there's still money left, and so, if we can, if we can allocate that, I think that'll be fun, so we'll see how it goes. Uh we have um overall a mixed market today, uh energy, doing very well because well, energy is doing very well, and by that i mean that as oil is going up, energy stocks are doing well.

No matter what they are pretty mixed on the indice front, look at this uh you've got a dow jones industrial at point, 17 to the downside. Point one for the s p to the down nasdaq 0.03 to the up russell 0.58 to the up oil sitting at 83.33, relatively unchanged here, and the 10-year treasury bond actually down slightly at 1.577, which, given that it's right before the uh cpi, release kind of interesting. That you think, all of a sudden we're seeing uh a uh a push over here, uh on uh treasury, uh treasury prices up and bond yields down kind of interesting. It's the market uh.

I really think the market's nervous. The market has no freaking idea. What's gon na happen tomorrow, but everybody's worried about tomorrow, i think it's a little overblown. I think tomorrow's really like our our last remaining negative catalyst and if it's bad, i want to take advantage to buy.

If it's good. I want to take advantage of um of sitting around doing nothing so uh, taking a look at crypto as well. You've got bitcoin off of its 57 000 again it's possible because this morning we were wondering. Why is it that all of a sudden we have uh, ethereum and cardano down, but bitcoin's up? It was odd, well bitcoin, uh, finally, rotated to the downside.

It's now down three percent on the day, uh and so a little bit of that alignment. Again, usually, you see much more alignment between bitcoin and the alts and uh we're seeing a little bit of that right now, ethereum 34. uh. I did do some crypto transactions by the way over the last uh couple days and uh and some stock transactions.

So if you want to see exactly every time i buy or sell remember to check out the stocks of psychology money program, we've got some amazing new lectures coming out in 12 days, totally free upgrade for all the members and the price will be going up on The 29th okay, so let's take a look at uh. How some of the sticks are behaving got ocugen still moving on that covax and news out of india moving up uh 16.84 percent. Just like this morning, we had an upgrade on mgm with uh. I mentioned that we could see revenue substantially higher than uh what is currently estimated uh leading mgm.

Now to rally about nine point, nine percent, pretty incredible, had a very brief rally here on tmc the metals uh. This company doesn't produce revenue yet wants its revenue net net money, loser and uh it uh. It seems to sometimes move a little bit with momentum, so uh just something to keep an eye on upstart lender, though 333. It's mind-blowing, this thing just keeps going at 7.

28 upstart i'm going to go to their website again. I just want to see if it's evolved at all, since they basically got rich here we go where'd, it go oops. I accidentally closed it. I'm just gon na close, the other one yeah whatever anyway.

Look at this upstart get a smarter loan pay off credit cards, consolidate debt refinance my car, something else: fair personal loans and car refinancing no premium penalty for personal loans. Our rates are 10 lower than traditional lenders, so instead of 30 you're only paying 20 percent. I'm sorry um, but wow wow, wow wow. What a what a run on this one, so uh yeah people got ta fix their debt.

I guess i guess, there's a demand for this uh solar edge plug power. We got some nice movements in the whole energy space. Dq, the chinese panel manufacturer workhorse, canadian solar blink end phase. Some big moves here, nice to see end phase, move with etsy.

I think that's fascinating and i wonder if etsy's just moving, because we are going into a holiday season and and folks, one of the cool things that i really like about etsy is etsy could actually potentially and dramatically win this winter thanks to uh. Thanks to being a potential uh, how should i say this alternate to traditional gifts, because if traditional gifts and purchases have supply chain issues, then why not go to etsy and find something somebody can make in their garage and potentially not have supply chain issues with this? Could be a boon? Let's frazzy, let me look at some of etsy's numbers. Really quick. It's been been a minute so etsy, let's see 2021 3.61 cents on eps, so we're about 71 times 770 times.

Let's see 213 divided by now, a little less than that 361.. Uh 59 times there we go rough. Mental math was off by 11. uh 2022 expected to be relatively similar growth heading to about 20 20 to 22.

For really the next five years and eps should double by about 2025 is the expectation which at about 213., you know it's not cheap, but yet about 28 times forward. They do have an incredible margin, though, and that's one of the things that props this company up you've got net income at etsy sitting around 23 to 25. It is pretty nice, so uh etsy, you know, don't don't sleep on that? One! That's uh! That's pretty nice! I, like etsy a lot it's one of my top stocks, my top favorite stocks. I love etsy.

It really hasn't moved so terribly much the downside either here recently yeah yeah, we i mean in may. We had. We had the lows of about 160.. Recently, we we barely hit like 193 or 175.

you're, not far off of there. I've in the past said under like once you hit over 225. It said, don't touch, but generally i like to buy it under 200. I i you know with this holiday season.

Coming up, i wish i had more right now. So, let's see here, uh yeah etsy etsy's one to pay attention to. So then we have, let's see canadian solar at uh 5.4 canoe, canoe city at seven bucks, wow, chargepoint, doing nice, almost back to twenty dollars on charge. Point very nice! Look at how firm a firm was green.

Then it went negative uh, then uh! Then then it uh, then it took off again here. Uh i mean it is uh shot. Oh my gosh 141. Oh, my goodness, there's another one that selfishly i kind of wish would fall.

So i could buy more. We talk about this one frequently. In course, member live streams as well all right, let's see here, okay, all right. Let's do a little bit of searching here.

Okay, i'm gon na do a little quick hunt here on etsy. Give me a second here: etsy wow, it's actually maintained uh, it's alexa ranking! Basically, throughout the year page, views per user have been actually popping off a little bit in the last uh last month. Here time on website in the last 30 days is up about two percent and page views per user about up eight percent. This isn't even the app folks wow, i'm gon na do a quick trend, search, quick trend search, let's see here, let's see uh no, no real change here over the last month on trends uh over the last year.

Quite frankly, it's been a slow grow, been consistent and, what's really important is for me is that it hasn't been falling because we really shelfed up uh in the pandemic, and it really has not been going down. That's incredible now: etsy slime is trending, but so are etsy face, masks really facema; no, no they're, not okay, yeah. No, they they've been plummeting in that search. That's what i thought.

Okay! So that's old news! Oh that's! In the past five years: okay, yeah. I wonder. What's been trending in the past 90 days with etsy, maybe that could give us a little bit of an insight. Ah, look at this cards against humanity.

Uh etsy fall wreaths is etsy legit etsy disney shirts, uh, okay. Those are some interesting uh search trends over the last 90 days. Let me look at last 12 months. Last 12 months, uh etsy official website, etsy seller login, who owns etsy etsy return policy, etsy order status, ornament, art, hmm uh - that could make sense.

Why you're seeing more of a spike people are getting all festive again, you know uh, that's they're, they're, getting festive, that's what it is. Yeah pinterest interest has been another one that it's just not not so superb. On the search trends, this company, i've got some dollars in okay, brian laundry pingerie is searching or pinterest is trending butchered those words. That's interesting, but uh 90 days been stable on pinterest just for google search trends slightly down in the last 12 months on search trends.

Uh five years you've been you've really been combating though a downtrend, it's not so great yeah yeah, you know another one of the things that's trending is how to delete pins on pinterest, okay, so people trying to get to know how to use it. I guess uh. Oh wait a second here, though pinterest just had a bounce in august. Why? On a search traffic, why? If page views are down 1.9 percent in the past uh 90 days here time on websites only up one percent? I wonder why its search rank all of a sudden would go up on pinterest.

Hmm, certainly don't see that on uh google search trends and and we'd have to try app search trends, but it gets a little more tricky. I'm gon na put pins question mark here, and it makes you wonder too: let's see their profitability, let's see how we've been trending on this one. So if i do uh, for example, a quick little pins look on their financials, we are we've got a nice margin as well. 2021 has been crap uh and so the prior years, their forward margins expected to be 25 to 30, which is very good.

Uh they're they're expected to their eps profitable for 2021 expected to come in with a buck for um eps for the year and we should be able to double that eps by 2024 with uh. You know: 30 20 to 30 percent growth over the next five years. So i mean the things growing. I guess, if i had to choose i'd rather uh be an etsy, especially since so much pins pushes to uh to etsy, but then again pins has the uh the discount on the share price.

You know we look at pins. You know pins has been evaporating at 51.. The thing just gave up any kind of semblance of support that it had uh really sitting around 50 right now. Of course it's ran up substantially from from where it was during the pandemic, but oh look: matterport actually sold down intraday here.

That's nice yeah! Look at that matterport kind of sold off there to 1928. uh end phase, still running etsy, still running, hmm. Looking at the losers, let's see here some of the blockchains uh hippos, still in pain, dutch bros, owlette, uh still down two percent: okay, google ewm ubiquity. Okay, i mean not much terribly - has changed here during the day amc.

I feel like slightly red here, yeah a little interesting consolidation, we're seeing right in this channel here between 38 and 40 as a consolidation. Well, let's see if we can sell any puts, do we want to sell any puts on anything. I don't know: let's explore hood here. I see someone asking in the chat.

Oh i mean it's fallen nicely. So, let's see if we go to december, what's december, take us out 66 days. Wow christmas is coming soon. So if i go to sella put seven bucks, it's not bad! That takes me down to 34.

on uh, oh 34.7, divided by 41. wow, that's not bad! On hood! I've got some good exposure to hood, but that's actually not bad and then donkey sign has been doing a little bit of a fall here. Let's explore docu for a moment doc. You sign down another three percent here.

If i drop in here and i go for a december on docusign uh - let's go to these 50 here, 250 15.95 divided by 250.. That's about 6.8! I mean that's gosh, the hood one's much more juicy jeez yeah! What's up with hoods volatility, let's see here. Let's do a little look short term and face calls and jpm's going red hard. I don't know about that.

Let's see here he's falling into the close, it's kind of doing that almost institutional style sell-off again towards the close i've seen a lot of that. So i'm gon na look at historic volatility on hood. Okay, robin hood. It's our volatility! Let's see what we got so robinhood's historic volatility is in the toilet.

It's way down. So usually you know you want to sell your options, usually when the volatility is a little higher, but uh pricing can be a factor as well. Tesla has had a little bit of a spike up in volatility, but it's still dead low right now, wow, crazy. Okay.

What about a firm? What's a firm doing, see if a firm still at high volatility, it could be very interesting. I'll. Tell you a hood, though. That's icing just looks juicy on it, the market's really thinking it's going to fall.

Yeah hood started: a firm's volatility started coming down a little bit. Okay, end phase. I don't know again that i would buy options on nth right now. Let me see i mean maybe, but i think their volatility is popped off a little bit, so i wouldn't want to buy oh yeah.

The volatility is relatively high right now i wouldn't i this is not. I mean this is actually the time to potentially sell options. Let me see it's much safer than uh robin hood, so it's not going to have the same kind of premium as robin hood yeah. It's not that great 325 divided by 170., oh that's october as well! So let me bounce that to december whoa.

Where are my december options? Okay seriously, no december options, that's lame all right! Fine! So if i sold these 14.3 into 170s, that's about an 8.4, not horrible. If i go to jan that's about a 19, but it's going to take me a while longer to get there 19.45 that's going to be about 11., that's not worth it! I'd rather go for the nov, but if you got i mean these. These contracts are expensive. Right, like you'd, have to have collateral for these.

Every 10 you'd have to have about 170k collateral. You went to november uh november 170s. Here it's basically at the money uh. I don't even think i have that buying power.

I would probably do that because the uh volatility has popped off here recently. Let's see i don't i don't know if i have the buying power for this here, apparently i do cool. Let me uh and quickly post that my little violet, let's pop off the spy here quickly but yeah, remember folks, anytime. I buy or sell options crypto stocks whatever it is.

I send alerts and it's really just because if i'm reviewing uh what's going on in the marketplace and i'm like oh you know, this is interesting on the volatility graph or you know this seems like an opportunity or this that or whatever i um it just gives You something else to consider: it's not meant for copying uh. Okay, there we go sometimes we'll do those live. Obviously, most of the time. These are not live, but that's cool.

I don't mind, selling puts when volatility is up like this, especially right before cpi. You know that could be interesting. Let's see how the vix is doing. I mean we're 19, we're still elevated uh.

So we're you know we're not uh at some crazy high levels. Here, let's, let's see some other ones, goog um yeah. I don't. I don't know what to tell you about cost being halted i'll.

Do a quick search here cos: okay, individual costs, paused for volatility after climbing 23. Okay prevails in apple ipr patent challenge that update just came through about six minutes ago, some kind of lawsuit they must have won. Let's take a look at this all right, so this stock has just been going to the toilet. I don't even know what cost does.

I just know it's halted right now. It's been a it's been. A momentum play know that uh, it is cost designs manufacturers and sells stereo headphones loudspeakers and related products through department stores, military exchanges, catalogs blah blah blah blah blah uh; okay, fascinating, not really, but anyway, it is uh, it's 200-day moving average it just shot up above. It's 200 wait hold on 18.80 yeah just shot above its 200-day moving average; barely it's barely above its 200-day moving average right now.

So it's been a bleeder been a momentum play. These are all momentum, spikes that it's had. What cost is a big momentum play? Let's uh, let's see if we can get short interest on this. Give me a second here: um.

Okay, let's see here black all right, let's see what there is to do here. So short interest is on cos: it's only 3.4 percent. So i don't. I don't think you could really call this a short squeeze play uh, despite its reputation, cos headphones.

What is this thing? Legendary, sound, legendary color looks old. It's like old school stuff, a sound of costs. I don't i've never heard of this. They sell it here.

Cosplay cheapies the little cheapies is what they are. Wow costs see here: uh costs, let's see financial analysis, they're, barely profitable, tiny market cap. This thing could definitely move um, teeny, tiny. It's like a 200 million dollar company, be careful.

These things can move up fast and fall fast yeah. It was part of the gamestop move. That's crazy! Well, we'll see what happens when it pops off or opens up here again if it does we'll keep an eye on it. Uh so uh, seven chargepoint, nice sweet.

Keep pushing, i i'm just blown away on this. What is the p by the way? What is this p? Let's lock this um? Oh, oh, maybe, oh that's position! That's what that means. It means you have a position in it. I think i see.

Okay, that makes sense x, pings up 0.5 arm sheep camber 11 yeah. This is you got ta, be careful with the momentum movers robin hood very interesting to me hippo. I wonder what volatility is like on hippo. I don't think they're gon na reopen costs today.

Let's try hippos volatility, hippo historic volatility. Oh, it's plummeted, yeah, okay, that's what that's why i bought options last week, all right. Well, i like the end phase one and maybe a charge point. I wonder what theirs is like.

If you sell, do some self puts here, charge point now: it's relatively low: are they open again nope still halted on cost they're not going to reopen today, which is surprising? Oh, did it go no they're just going to leave it down there at halt it until they close? How dare they it gives nobody a chance to actually put in some market orders. It means it's just going to be an after hours. Cluster f is what it's going to be all right. Folks, listening those are your winning groups today, all right folks, 10-year treasury 1.566, actually falling dow jones industrial down 0.35 s p down 0.24 nasdaq down 0.15 russell 2000.

Small cap bounces .6. Folks. This is the closing bell before cpi data comes out, not a lot of earnings to cover today, most earnings really begin before the market tomorrow and then after the market uh on wednesday. It is going to be interesting to see what happens with cpi data.

If you are nervous, you should be it's gon na be fun, uh watch, nothing happens. It just ends up being a total dud like we're expecting a big party, and it's just going to be like lame-o bamo, we'll see, let's see how things close today cos obviously halted uh, it does look like kloss is uh back now, i'm moving in the after Hours here we go uh. Oh here it goes, cost is open again. Oh snap, it's over 20! Now, oh man, here it goes uh.

You should play the game, see how it is. I'm gon na try. Should i do it. Should i do it for giggles? Should we play the game or is it gon na evaporate, probably gon na evaporate? Oh, i love seeing moves like this uh.

I also i mean the one minute bar is funny. Okay, let's try it. Okay, i'm gon na i'm gon na play the game. Oh, how much did i put in 100 100 shares.

That's lame! That's like it's like not even worth alerting. This is more of a joke than anything. Oh gosh, um 100 shares at twenty dollars. It's two thousand dollars uh anyway.

This is this is total. This is stupid. This is so dumb, um, okay, i'm gon na set a limit at one penny higher. Just because why not it was, it was giggles.

Oh, it already sold it at one penny higher. I made uh. I made 200 pennies there boom. You want to learn how, to day trade like that, you check out that stocks and psychology of money group, because i can make you pennies hashtag, not guaranteed uh.

As usual, though, make sure you uh, let me pull up earnings just to double check what what is having earnings today, uh make sure you do, though, uh check out the uh stocks in psychology or i'm sorry, the checkout public go to medkevin.com public and uh. You can get one totally free stock worth all the way up to um. What's it called seventy dollars uh, so you wan na stock all worth all the way up to seventy dollars go to met kevin.com public. They won't buy or sell your data.

They don't use payment for order flow and uh hey you get a free stock worth up to seven dollars. You can also follow me there at meet kevin and then sometimes when i buy things actually anytime, i buy or sell something on public. You get a free, uh alert, so you'll actually see. If you go there, you go to my kevin.com public.

I bought something today on public, which, of course, if i buy it in public, i also send an alert in stocks and psychology money group um, but yeah anyway. Okay, so um, i will just post a little thing on um uh 100 shares of cost for giggles. At 1917 and sold at 1980., okay, not sending an alert on that uh, okay, cool, so uh, yeah earnings aren't something that are really in. My opinion are going to be worth covering until tomorrow morning.

Yeah block fight is totally different than public. If you want to get a pub a credit card, for example, with block fight, you can go to medkevin.combf, i'm at kevin.com, bf and they'll pay. You in bitcoin rewards it's kind of cool. I have it.

I haven't been paying like uh. I just paid off like a nine grand bill on it, so i'm excited to get my uh crypto rewards. So after hours, tesla is sitting at 801. I did go up about 1.74 today, dropping about 0.64 here in the after hours, you've got crisper therapeutics bleeding out again dropping about 3.8 here in the after hours, docusign dropping another 1.65.

This is an interesting one. I wonder what volatility is like on docusign occugen's, moving off the indian news, at least that's the latest that i remember from uh. Prior research and volatility on docusign is not as high as what we had in uh september, we're sitting at about a 10-day average of about 44. Although usually this thing's, i mean the 30-day average is 39 50-day.

Average is 34.. 100-Day average is 43., so the volatility's you know been trending down. You've had this recent burst of vol here, which does make for the potential case of maybe selling some puts here. If i go to 66 days on docky, it's too late, obviously to do it now.

That's not bad for docusign, that's not bad! Let me put that down sell puts, especially if tomorrow we get some volatility docu and i wonder how uh trade desk has been in terms of all trade desk and let's look at some of the other ones as well. I'll tell you about them like uh alibaba. I wonder how their volatility's been. It's still super low calls could be interesting on that one honestly uh alibaba, though it is down historic volatility, yeah i'll check news, no historic, volatility's, very high right now on baba, it's uh.

It's gone straight to the moon here since july with this evergrand crisis, which doesn't surprise me. If i go back to 2020, oh yeah, it's messy chart um, but it's definitely elevated vol that could be interesting baba sell puts, i wonder how they are so i go to baba options chain december. Let's go at the money. 16 5 cell puts 13 yeah.

That's kind of like docusign, honestly yeah donkey sounds almost better, but directionally baba's going up docusign's going down kind of interesting what about corsair? I wonder this has got to be like the lowest volatility ever. It's just been bleeding out. Let me see here: let's go to star volatility on corsair grizzberg therapeutics reports, positive results from phase one carbon trial of whatever the heck. That means yeah, i'm glad they have positive news and they're going down five percent.

All right, coarse hair is well it's not about average volatility. It's been way lower, tesla's low right now. I i'm blown away with how low test, let me see if tesla updated today. Oh, it's still dirt low.

It's you can't sell, puts on tesla right now. Buy calls on tesla right now. I'm shocked volatility's, so low pins is another one. Let's see here, horse hair, nah pins about average, that's no fun! Neo is probably up on ball.

Let's see if it is um nope also about a tiny little bit out, but it's kind of a hundred day average rkt volatility near zero. I will look at that: uh rocket yeah, it's very low uh, not at the lowest point where it's been in the last 30 days, but it's definitely low. You go out to last year, um yeah gosh. It was really low september 9th.

It started popping off again how about united wholesale, probably on the same path. United wholesale mortgage, uh, yeah, relatively similar okay, is crypto. Flash crash is that true hold on i'm coming in with my fire hose oh looks like somebody else already did, damn it um. It's kind of funny to see it literally go to my support line.

That line has been there for a very long period of time and it like bitcoin just listens it just. It follows the lines. It sees my lines and it loves my lines. It thinks my lines are like the sexiest lines that i've ever never lived, they're good lines.

Nobody has better. Nobody knows lines better than i do hmm interesting little move here on crypto yeah, i'm gon na watch this okay, going right back to the line here, looks like we had a first little round of by the dippage, and this is right before um earnings or not Earnings. Well, that means earnings season kind of starts, but uh, what's tomorrow, cpi apple to cut iphone output targets by 10 million due to chip shortages sucks to suck oh wait. That's a company! I own uh zoom out to see where that line was from.

Oh, it could have been an hour chart. It's you know, i really, you know, i don't know it could be a day. Chart could be an hour chart there's so many like. Once i place the lines, i don't try to reinvent uh.

You know, probably over here in this channel, that we've had something having to do with this um. You know it's. A more recent looks like a bottom one, two, three, four, five, six yeah. This is something that gets played with a lot around here.

That 54, 000 figure, but again it could have come from an hour chart uh. I i have no idea, that's why when i place them, i don't move them. I just color code them. Another thing we talk about in stocks and psychology and money.

So certainly people are like you. Could google stuff like that? Good luck, uh all right! So, let's see here, yeah crispr is getting smashed. I mean they are absolutely getting detroit yeah. I did purposefully mispronounce that uh financial analysis of crispr shows positive this year, but negative next year, bumpy earnings really bumpy earnings.

It's not good uh yeah they're getting smoked right now. In the after hours there's cost hey went to 20, i should have held my 200 shares. I could have had a few more pennies uh. Who cares? You sold your crypto once robin once on robinhood and i forgot the minimum price i wanted it for and instantly lost, no gon na happen with market orders.

Corner review reveals grisly details of gabby potito grisly details. That's sad um! She was not pregnant at the time of her death strangulation. That's sad! Um! Hmm, that's so sad! Well, actually it doesn't. They don't really reveal not that you really want to know, but there's not much, there's not much in terms of details here.

Hmm, so sad uh! Oh, thank you drew look at that. Anyone who says you can google that stuff is a fool and totally misses the point and benefits of the course priceless. Thank you for that all right, so cpi, folks, yeah get your sleep don't drink too much tonight, because you got ta wake up early tomorrow, uh all right i mean we can do a quick little pop over to bloom, but uh come on etsy at sea, etsy! Etsy, do we look at volatility for etsy? I want to see we did. That would be interesting.

Let's sell some puts on etsy i'd expect volatility to be up or volunteer. Oh, is this happening now? No, not really it's pretty average right now. Actually, that's slightly elevated. What's this auditions have quote all been met, joining us now for an exclusive interview is saint louis bed, president james bullard great to have you on the show president bullard welcome great to be here thanks for having me so so is this a go taper at the Next meeting in november, an announcement, a vote and and getting ready to scale back that stimulus in your mind, uh i'd support starting the taper in november uh.

As you know, i've been advocating trying to get finished with the taper process, uh even by the end of the first quarter or next year, because i want to be in position to react to possible uh upside risk to inflation uh next year, as we try to Uh move out of this pandemic yikes. What happens if growth slows and the market continues to weaken here? Will that change your view? It's gon na be great for his puts paper and how fast to look toward rate hikes. You know. Third quarter growth.

Does you know it's been marked down, as, as you know, following uh everybody i think, including the fed uh, including me um, but i've just pushed out the growth into the fourth quarter and into the first half of next year. So i think the total amount of growth that we'll see will not be diminished. There's still plenty of demand out there there's plenty of reopening it still has to occur. There's plenty of fiscal uh support for the economy and monetary support, so i i really think that we're still in great shape, i think the pandemic will come under better and better control.

We've got technology still going on the pandemic front. Uh pills on the horizon, booster shots, uh shots for kids, all kinds of stuff happening, so i think we're still in great shape, uh economy wise, even though we got a setback from delta, the delta variant in the third quarter. That that said, are you fearful in any way that the inflation picture will force your hand before perhaps the jobs picture on its own right would warrant tightening yeah? I don't know on jobs, you know unemployment rate, uh, 4.8 percent uh way more job openings than the number of unemployed uh on that dimension, where we've got a hot job market um, i i think by the time we get to next spring. You could see a three handle on the unemployment rate uh that would be back to the pre-pandemic level, so i think we're in we're in pretty good shape on on labor markets.

They'll continue to improve through the the next six to nine months as we're tapering on inflation. I think uh, you know the the story that inflation will come down naturally is is a reasonable one, but i only want to put 50 probability on that scenario, and i've got to put some probability on a scenario where uh inflation stays high or even goes higher. Uh in the months ahead and that's the risk i want to be in position to be able to handle at the end of the taper yeah, i mean you made quite a splash when you came on cnbc a few months ago after one of the fed meetings And started talking about 2022 rate hikes right after powell was was super dovish and talking about transitory inflation has has the fed the core the fed moved more toward your view of a rate hike in the coming year? Uh. I i think that if you look at the median of the summary of economic projections uh, there have been uh more participants moving into 2022 as a possible date of liftoff.

You know i would say that uh and the chair has said that we do want to keep the idea of the end of the taper separate and the tapering generally speaking, separate from the date of liftoff uh, which is you know, it's a separate decision for the Committee and and there's no reason for us to commit one way or the other at this point, but i just want to be in position if, in case, we have to move sooner, that we're uh able to do so uh next year in the in the spring Or summer, if, if we had to do so, we saw the short end of the yield curve move higher today, uh really in reaction to the same thing happening over in europe yesterday, whilst u.s bond markets were closed, as there was talk that uh, we might even Get a rate like this calendar year, uh from from the bank of england, when you see those sorts of moves, does it at the margin help the us's cause in the sense that there's a bit of tightening going on without you having to hike rates or is The opposite, true, that if other central banks get going uh before you, it might force your hand. I don't know if there's any sort of direct feedback there. I think uh, the bank of england has to handle their situation. They're more open economy.

They've probably got other concerns other than the ones we have here. Um inflation tends to be higher uh in the u.s here than other places in the world um in europe uh, and i think part of that is that the um, the fiscal and monetary response to the pandemic has been so aggressive in the u.s uh. And so that's probably feeding in you know one thing i would say a lot of people say well inflation's up, because this is a supply shock. But what i would say to that is that a supply shock alone cannot cause inflation.

It's a supply shock being accommodated by very easy monetary policy. It's those two things together that lead to the inflation. You can't get inflation just by having one price go up, it has to be all the prices go up in tandem, and that only comes about when the monetary policy is accommodative in response to a supply shock. What about stagflation we're seeing more and more mentions of it in the wall street notes? A lot of sell-off lately has been blamed on on this idea of slower economic growth.

At the same time, of persistently high inflation, which is a bad recipe, reminds us of what happened in the 70s is that is that a concern for you yeah? I i i'm not quite sure uh people have been debating around about this, but uh um. You know in the 70s you actually had outright recessions with inflation going up uh. I don't think we're going to get into that situation. I think the probability of recession is uh exceptionally low at this point, um, like i say at the outset, i said well, you know we're we're in great shape for growth going forward, even though the third quarter doesn't look.

Uh looks like it's being revised down. Quite a bit we'll get that number here at the end of the month, but um, i think uh slowing growth and higher inflation. Well, growth was six percent plus in the first half of the year. You'd probably expect something slightly less than that, but i'm not sure i'd call that stagflation, i think, that's a that's a overselling of the term stagflation switching focus a little bit.

We had uh senator warren on the show. Last week and uh, part of the discussion was uh, exploring with her in more detail why she felt chair powell was a dangerous man and and, as you know, part of that comment initially from her stem from the fact that she felt you know, regulation on the Banking sector had been eased too significantly. What's your response, when you hear politicians use such extreme terms like that towards someone, you know very well yep we're used to it. We've got tough, tough skin here uh.

We always get criticized from all sides uh. I i sometimes i take that as a sign that we're doing something right if we get criticized from uh from many different angles. Um. I think you know.

As far as the regulatory uh situation, the the big picture is that dodd-frank uh was passed. There was some talk at some point about repealing dodd-frank that never got traction. It's the law of the land now and you had uh both of the authors uh the leaders on that build out uh chris dotto and barney frank uh, saying that it was basically intact at this point, so i think we're in as good a shape as we Can be uh, given our uh our political process, to to get uh good protection for the banking system, and we've tried to implement that uh as best we can. He especially has gotten it from both sides, first trump and and now warren.

Finally, this this whole controversy over over stock trading has added a new element and a new dimension. I i don't think that you have been as actively trading as some of your peers on the federal reserve, but just by input do you think that you guys should be able to trade stocks, as as you have only puts yeah the way i see this is That congress sets the standard they're, the top policy making organization they're deciding on tax policy regulatory policy, all kinds of things, so they set the ethics standards and then that spreads out to all the agencies, and we have to certainly follow nice deflect. Congress wants to raise that standard. I think uh, that's uh, definitely their uh prerogative as the elected body and then all the all the agencies would have to uh follow through.

I, you know it's that's a political question for the congress but uh. If they do it, then that means members are going to live with it, and staff also are going to live with whatever standards they set. As far as i know, uh we've been we've met the congressional standards so far, but uh we are looking into it and and chair powell has has promised uh extensive review of the situation. James bullard always good to talk to you.

Thank you for joining us here. On closing bell great thanks a lot president of the st louis said up next, in the wake of a cnbc investigation into stolen cryptocurrency, one trading platform boosted its customer service, uh, let's go ahead and do a recap of that. That was actually very interesting. Let's uh: let's do a recap of that with um yeah, whatever stupid, mic uh, let's do a recap of that with a cpi forecast, let's grab that really quick.

Give me one. Second, i have to go to the economic calendar and once i have the economic calendar, i could give you the data. Okay, i have it all right: cool, uh, yeah, there's some good there's some interesting things. He said there.

So let's do a recap of that. All right all right, y'all, ready and we'll start it like new video. Okay, sorry i just got here: are you still expecting a small curve to the downside on siberia? Okay, we'll we'll talk about that? We'll talk about my opinion on cpi, cpi, cpi expectations and my opinion all right, we'll do that and we'll talk about fed and cpi all right, uh. Well, let's get right into it.

Here we go hey everyone kevin here. Let's talk about what the federal reserve just said, because we just had an interview on cnbc that gave uh some potentially scary insights. Now this was just one member of the fed, but you know this guy's buying puts let's just say that you know this guy's sitting in the board meetings on his weeble or public.com, and going oh well, wherever you can buy, puts and he's buying puts and uh. Let's, let's go through some of the things he said and then let's talk about cpi expectations for tomorrow.

Uh today is october 12th on uh well great, the 13th of october we're going to get uh the september inflation readings, i'm going to talk about expectations for those those come out at 5. 30 a.m. California time 8, 30 a.m. Eastern time so set your alarm.

If you're on the west coast uh a little earlier than usual uh, so uh, mr bullard just came up and discussed. How he's been advocating getting the taper process done as soon as possible so that we could be in a position to react to quote possible upside risks to inflation next year? Now it's worth noting kind of where consensus is right now consensus is that we're going to raise rates for the first time in the second half of next year. So just to give you a little quick chart here, i would write this down somewhere. I think this is important.

The expectation right now is that in november we we start the taper, so this is really going to be the start, and so this will be the taper line over here. So this is november 21 and right now the expectation is that we end and i'll call it end. E for expectation is uh. Probably june is what i would say because they had mentioned mid so i'll put june, slash sort of mid over here june mid one board member came out a couple of weeks ago and suggested a potential uh end.

So i'll put end one over here, uh that doesn't look too good here, let's use a smaller pen here we go end one and they suggested the fall, but ballard he's counteracting that and he's going pretty aggressive and so far the data's kind of been leaning in His favor, and so really what we've just heard is a potential taper as early as q1, so i'll put n2 here, and this would be a q q1 end, which would be really by march and the reason he wants to finish. The taper here is so that, rather than potentially raising rates in the second half - which this is the expectation right here is, this would be called liftoff over here. So just write that lift off liftoff is just a fancy way of saying rates go up and uh. That's the expectation right now, so i'll do e again, but his suggestion is that we're ready to basically raise rates right after march, so potentially an april may raising of rates, and that's because he's more fearful about inflation, taking off so far than than many others.

And this is, let's just say during his discussion: all you had to say was uh he's, he's buying, puts and pretty much what he was saying, aligned with that uh. He says that third quarter growth has been marked down. He does think it's uh overselling this economy to call it stagflation. He suggests hey.

Look. We've gone from six percent gdp growth at the beginning of the year to you know three to four percent growth. Now, that's not really stagflation, it's just a slowing down, but uh. He does also see that growth is kind of stalled here in q3, but he doesn't believe it's evaporated.

He believes it's just been delayed into q4 and the first half of next year, which is right where he really wants to talk about raising rates anyway, because he thinks okay, we had a little pause like we hit the brakes a little bit on growth with the Delta fears right around august, but now we're hitting that gas again and that's potentially going to contribute to inflationary forces kind of hurting us at the beginning of next year, which is interesting. He's talking about this. On the eve of cpi data, which we'll talk expectations in a moment, i personally and no guarantees, but i personally think these people get a heads up on these reports before they actually come out. Who knows if they actually do, but anyway, he says that uh total growth will be diminished.

Plenty of reopening has still has to be done, though, and we particularly have a lot of fiscal support, so congressional support and monetary support, i mean some would disagree with that. Saying that our unemployment boost has been removed, but then we do have the child tax credit. That's flowing pretty! Well, it's going to be flowing through about tax season of next year, so about april 15th of next year. So you do have extra stimulus that you didn't previously have.

This is on a monthly basis right 300 per child uh, while under six and 250 dollars per child under under 18.. It's true! That's that is stimulus. You know every every three months: that's like a 1200 stimulus check per child. Think about that.

It's actually gon na you know that's that's a potential inflationary pressure uh. He does believe that the pandemic is coming under greater and greater control, thanks to pills, obviously, reference to the merc pill. Boosters, all this on the horizon. He uh believes, there's a good probability about a 50 probability that things will just be stable and that we get to about a three percent unemployment rate.

Maybe the upper three percent of the unemployment rate, but he wants to leave some openness for pricing in the risk of inflation, going quote higher and higher, or rather i think he said sorry quote, staying high or going higher. That was his quote. That's the risk! I want to be able to handle at the end of the taper and that it's worth understanding why he would say that, so we go back to this chart right here. If, if you, if you all of a sudden, get hit with inflation, and your interest rates are at zero, how you know now all of a sudden, uh you're you're in this position, where you're, potentially creating this lagging monetary support? Where, let's say interest rates are at zero until june of next year, just to explain what i mean here say: interest rates stay until zero here, but all of a sudden we have i'll call it.

You know what i'll call it mega inflation right here. Well, it's too late because to raise rates i mean obviously they're going to raise rates, but it's too late, because this zero percent monetary support is probably still going to push inflation higher. So we'll call it like super inflation right uh as as time goes on, because it's going to take a while, for let's say a rate increase to actually take effect, say you go up a quarter or percent or whatever you end up going up, doesn't really matter. This is more just an example here, so really what he wants to do is say: well, if there's a chance we're going to have let's say mega inflation by the middle of next year.

Let's start raising rates now and let's go to 0.25 percent or 0.5 sooner. So that way, if we do get over here, we're starting to kind of hit the brakes early, it's kind of like we see the traffic light, we're going to start taking our foot off the gas a little earlier and uh being prepared to uh and actually potentially Even starting to hit the brakes sooner so that way we don't have as abrupt of a stop, because it takes time. It's like it's like stopping a semi truck, although some semi truck brakes are pretty incredibly fast. So maybe maybe a better analogy.

Is it's like trying to stop a cruise ship? You should probably start taking the gap. Foot off the gas early, maybe hit those those reverse propellers a little sooner uh. This particular member of the fed has been somebody who's been a little bit more hawkish than other members. Even sarah eisen pointed out that he was a person who came out as hawkish against inflation, while at the same time jerome powell was coming out as a dovish about about inflation and how transitory inflation was going to be.

Obviously transitory. Inflation has lasted a whole lot. More than expected, he uh does mention that more participants are moving into 2022 for liftoff, so in other words, more about board members are joining him with raising rates. Sarah eisen asked hey, you know the bank of england talked about maybe doing a rate hike at the end of 2021.

He kind of separates himself from what the other countries are doing. He also says that inflation tends to be higher in the u.s than in other places in the world. I think he's referring to europe when he says that, because our inflation level tends to be lower than other countries outside of europe, but whatever uh so then, we've got an interesting comment about supply. Shocks alone cannot cause inflation.

They have to be accommodated by easy monetary policy, because all prices have to go up together at the same time, which is somewhat what is happening. We are seeing that so he's saying it's not just supply. This is where bullard is coming from and where he differs from powell. Is that stop calling this just a supply shortage? It's it's supply shortages and easy money.

That's what's leading to this inflationary pain, so cpi is uh is is definitely going to be on bullard's radar. Here and uh he's a big advocate and of staking his claim that inflation's going to get worse before it gets better and he wants to be prepared for that risk and wants to taper. Sooner definitely wants to taper in november, wants to accelerate the path of the taper, even though - and i'm surprised they didn't ask him about this, even though the jobs report, the last jobs report came in weak, not a single mention that weak jobs report a little bit Surprising not to see that on the radar more the focus again: inflation, inflation, inflation, so uh. Let's talk expectations for tomorrow, so we have an expectation of month.

Over month, inflation coming in at 0.3 percent tomorrow, minus food and energy we're expecting 0.2 percent. Tomorrow, cpi year-over-year headline read expected to be 5.3 percent uh, that is uh. That is unchanged from the prior month. We'll see we have uh.

We have a lot of expectations here. We also get the fomc meeting minutes from the september meeting. That'll be released at 2 p.m, eastern time tomorrow, so we've got a big news day tomorrow, meeting minutes and cpi data coming out tomorrow. These meeting minutes are expected to show the federal reserve probably being a little bit more dovish in response to delta and a miss on the prior jobs report from august uh, thereby deciding to wait to taper until november.

We do again have big expectations for cpi tomorrow. If this inflation comes in at a match, i expect the market will be stable right now we have been seeing a softening on the 10-year treasury, which kind of implies that the market is thinking. Cpi might actually come in potentially a little bit weaker than expected. Uh.

Maybe not, though, we'll see, i think the vast majority of the market participants like us and institutions are really thinking that uh inflation is going to come in, maybe higher uh than expected. I my hope. Originally this year has been that inflation would inflict down in the september october reads tomorrow: is that day tomorrow? Is that september and uh we'll see if my timing was right or wrong uh or if it's just delayed? Personally, i'm not as optimistic about my original belief as i was previously and that's because we are still seeing used car prices going up, we're still seeing lumber prices going up, we're still seeing uh pain in the commodity sector which drives up drives up inflation. Certainly, energy costs.

If i look at the manheim used vehicle index right now, we have let's go to the one month. We are uh. Okay, let's see here, try to get this out again. Uh yeah we're higher again higher than we're.

Well, this is for september. Okay, we're higher again than where we were as of our peak in may. We did have a little bit of a trough there in inflation, which was expected in july and august, but we're inflecting back up so really looking at some things like used cars, supply, chain constraints, uh freight and shipping issues that we're seeing inflation isn't getting better. So i can't be optimistic for tomorrow.

If anything, i think there's a chance that we we like, if i had to stake my grind ground right now. My hope would be my hope would be like okay, 60 we're gon na miss we're gon na get that inflection on the downside. My expectation is a 60 likelihood that we're probably going to have a match or a beat on inflation, which is not going to be so great for probably for tech companies, maybe that nasdaq and s p getting hit again. Personally, i hope it gives me opportunities for deals.

I want i'd, be i'd even be considering starting a position in baba cucom's been looking juicy, some of the value plays, uh or or really just lower. Multiple plays, don't necessarily want to call them value plays, but lower. Multiple plays like corsair micron uh western digital, some of these united wholesale a mortgage company. Some of these have been pretty low, wouldn't be opposed if we do get an inflationary read and some more pain and supply wouldn't be opposed to trying to pick up some a deal on end phase.

Oh i'm sorry on etsy, etsy, etsy etsy. You already know i'm into enphase and docusign and tesla, and the others uh potentially call options on tesla, because volatility has been so low and then of course, as usual, if i make any trades you know, i will be sending an alert on any of those in The stocks and psychology of money program linked down below which there will be new lectures coming out on october 24th and the price is going up on october 29th, so make sure to check that out down below.