Here are my thoughts on the 2021 real estate market, where prices are heading in the future, and how I'm investing in real estate moving forward - Enjoy! Add me on Instagram: GPStephan
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Here’s what’s going on right now: mortgage rates have continued hitting historic low after historic low, and that bodes REALLY, REALLY well for real estate. But even though record low rates means there has NEVER been a better time to buy real estate and get a mortgage, fewer sellers want to list their homes for sale, and that’s creating a housing SHORTAGE.
Marketwatch included a graph showing the trailing 12 month returns of real estate versus the stock market - and the great financial crisis of 2008 was the ONLY time where real estate experienced a 12-month trailing loss of more than 2%. That means, that - over the long term - real estate as an investment is going to be fairly stable and uneventful, despite what happens with our overall economy.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/look-what-happened-to-home-prices-when-the-coronavirus-sent-stocks-into-a-bear-market-2020-07-21
Real estate is also proving to be a good hedge against inflation, and that could also be driving higher than normal demand with rates as low as they are.
Even for myself, I’m a firm believer in getting a low interest, fixed rate mortgages on cash flowing rental properties as a hedge against inflation - and then, just take 30 years to pay them off in full while the home goes up in value. I think that’s a sound investment strategy when you do this correctly…but the problem, at this point…is that home prices are skyrocketing, and there’s NOTHING to buy.
As a real estate investor, it’s paramount that you get a good deal on a property with some upside so that you can fix it up and make repairs…but, everything I’m seeing is selling a premium because there aren’t many other choices on the market, and prices are increasing faster than I expected because other people are willing to pay whatever it takes just to get the home.
There’s nothing wrong with doing that if your intention is to buy something for yourself…BUT, from an investment standpoint, it makes it VERY difficult to come out profitable.
Despite all of that, though…the future of what’s going to happen with housing prices is hard to determine. Right now, yes - prices have been going up - a lot, whereas - seasonally, they would be going down. Sellers area also getting closer to their asking price, on average, than usual - but, how long can this hold up for?
https://www.redfin.com/blog/home-sales-and-prices-keep-climbing/
Well, the tech company Haus predicts that real estate will see about a 1% decline into 2021…but then predict, after that, growth could continue as high as 4-5% once our economy begins recovering.
https://haus.com/resources/june-2020-hausing-market-forecast
CoreLogic, one of the largest data analytics companies, found that - even though prices have risen 4.8% year over year…they expect that, over the next year, will see a drop of 6.6% in real estate prices…
https://www.corelogic.com/insights-download/home-price-index.aspx
I have a feeling, as long as consumer spending is low and our economy is shut down - interest rates will stay low, and demand for real estate will stay high. But, if that changes, after about 6-12 months or so, I would expect rates to slowly go back up - and that might begin to change the pace of real estate, especially if more sellers begin to list their homes for sale.
I’m still actively looking to buy something else for myself…BUT, I want to make sure whatever I buy is somewhat of a good deal, and I’m not going to overpay just for the sake of buying something.
For business or one-on-one real estate investing/real estate agent consulting inquiries, you can reach me at GrahamStephanBusiness @gmail.com
*Some of the links and other products that appear on this video are from companies which Graham Stephan will earn an affiliate commission or referral bonus. Graham Stephan is part of an affiliate network and receives compensation for sending traffic to partner sites. The content in this video is accurate as of the posting date. Some of the offers mentioned may no longer be available.
LIMITED TIME: Get 2 FREE STOCKS ON WEBULL when you deposit $100 (Valued up to $1400): https://act.webull.com/k/Vowbik9Tm5he/main
JOIN THE WEEKLY MENTORSHIP - https://the-real-estate-agent-academy.teachable.com/p/graham-stephan-mentorship-program/
THE NEW PODCAST: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCMSYZVlQmyG8_2MkIKzg0kw
The YouTube Creator Academy:
Learn EXACTLY how to get your first 1000 subscribers on YouTube, rank videos on the front page of searches, grow your following, and turn that into another income source: https://bit.ly/2STxofv $100 OFF WITH CODE 100OFF
My ENTIRE Camera and Recording Equipment:
https://www.amazon.com/shop/grahamstephan?listId=2TNWZ7RP1P1EB
Here’s what’s going on right now: mortgage rates have continued hitting historic low after historic low, and that bodes REALLY, REALLY well for real estate. But even though record low rates means there has NEVER been a better time to buy real estate and get a mortgage, fewer sellers want to list their homes for sale, and that’s creating a housing SHORTAGE.
Marketwatch included a graph showing the trailing 12 month returns of real estate versus the stock market - and the great financial crisis of 2008 was the ONLY time where real estate experienced a 12-month trailing loss of more than 2%. That means, that - over the long term - real estate as an investment is going to be fairly stable and uneventful, despite what happens with our overall economy.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/look-what-happened-to-home-prices-when-the-coronavirus-sent-stocks-into-a-bear-market-2020-07-21
Real estate is also proving to be a good hedge against inflation, and that could also be driving higher than normal demand with rates as low as they are.
Even for myself, I’m a firm believer in getting a low interest, fixed rate mortgages on cash flowing rental properties as a hedge against inflation - and then, just take 30 years to pay them off in full while the home goes up in value. I think that’s a sound investment strategy when you do this correctly…but the problem, at this point…is that home prices are skyrocketing, and there’s NOTHING to buy.
As a real estate investor, it’s paramount that you get a good deal on a property with some upside so that you can fix it up and make repairs…but, everything I’m seeing is selling a premium because there aren’t many other choices on the market, and prices are increasing faster than I expected because other people are willing to pay whatever it takes just to get the home.
There’s nothing wrong with doing that if your intention is to buy something for yourself…BUT, from an investment standpoint, it makes it VERY difficult to come out profitable.
Despite all of that, though…the future of what’s going to happen with housing prices is hard to determine. Right now, yes - prices have been going up - a lot, whereas - seasonally, they would be going down. Sellers area also getting closer to their asking price, on average, than usual - but, how long can this hold up for?
https://www.redfin.com/blog/home-sales-and-prices-keep-climbing/
Well, the tech company Haus predicts that real estate will see about a 1% decline into 2021…but then predict, after that, growth could continue as high as 4-5% once our economy begins recovering.
https://haus.com/resources/june-2020-hausing-market-forecast
CoreLogic, one of the largest data analytics companies, found that - even though prices have risen 4.8% year over year…they expect that, over the next year, will see a drop of 6.6% in real estate prices…
https://www.corelogic.com/insights-download/home-price-index.aspx
I have a feeling, as long as consumer spending is low and our economy is shut down - interest rates will stay low, and demand for real estate will stay high. But, if that changes, after about 6-12 months or so, I would expect rates to slowly go back up - and that might begin to change the pace of real estate, especially if more sellers begin to list their homes for sale.
I’m still actively looking to buy something else for myself…BUT, I want to make sure whatever I buy is somewhat of a good deal, and I’m not going to overpay just for the sake of buying something.
For business or one-on-one real estate investing/real estate agent consulting inquiries, you can reach me at GrahamStephanBusiness @gmail.com
*Some of the links and other products that appear on this video are from companies which Graham Stephan will earn an affiliate commission or referral bonus. Graham Stephan is part of an affiliate network and receives compensation for sending traffic to partner sites. The content in this video is accurate as of the posting date. Some of the offers mentioned may no longer be available.
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I feel like a guy who invests in real estate is trying to convince people to buy his overpriced properties thus completing his investment in real estate that he purchased at a much lower price tag.
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Lets say, if I where do mortgage a home and have a low interest rate. And crash where to occur can’t I just get the price re-adjusted? If my question isn’t clear what I’m trying to say if I mortgage a home that is 100k and I just down 15k with a interest rate of 2%. And the market crash making my house worth 50-70k can i try to drop my price.
Low rate is only a piece of puzzle. Just like equities, smart investors don't buy stocks w/high PE because it's commission free or because of low margin rate. It would be stupid to buy a $500K hyped up property with 2.50% when the property is actually worth only $300K. And, with maint. costs, property taxes, and opportunity costs… net net, you still lose money with that 2.5% mortgage rate. And, don't forget, many people are on forbearance. I'll let those sellers hold their inventories. I'd like to see how long they can hold them.
Graham started out in the 2008 crash and bought a foreclosure as his very first house, that is how he made money, now he has looked for 6 months and cant find a deal to buy. Deja Vu anyone? 12 years between crashes is about right.
I want to get my Real Estate License can you recommend (the best classes) where I can go to a class? I value your feedback. Thank you.
Graham, do you think stocks (broad market fund) or average nation property prices will protect better against inflation?
You uploaded this at August 3, 2020. Today is October 15, 2020. GS, Hard to advise people as you know you're struggling to find your way on your next one. There are many 'all cash' buyers in the neighborhoods I'm looking. Not being pre-approved by a Lender is a sure way to not be taken seriously when you're submitting your offer. That Pre-Approval Letter needs to be fresh and Proof of Funds on a current ATM receipt or fresh bank statement needs to be included with the offer. Banks are scrubbing every detail really hard these days. They look at everything very closely and ask a lot of questions, need documentation. Sure, I just got $1.4MM @ 2.75% fixed but it was not easy. The property I locked-in for $1.7MM appraised at $2.15MM a few weeks later and cool as that sounds the entire process was very tedious. Good energy in the video. Thanks.
So i have a question, you say market value goes up in Suburbia areas without addressing the growing residential areas that where once unpopulated. housing grown on the outskirts is always valued at more until people actually purchase it, and then a year or two later are told their properties are only worth what is the going value said properties because its no longer the outlining property.
how exactly are your viewers making money?
You seem to have shill in the value of your common man or how they should spend their money, or how someone might make an actual profit off your channel. your good for few ideas for building a aesthetic home for sure, but hardly who i would call upon to break me from a financial crisis.
Homes in my market are still increasing in value like crazy here in OC California. Just sold a home $40,000 over market value and the buyer paid cash. I think this could change in the near future thou. Graham when do you think interest rates will go up?
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Think it would be a great idea content-wise to do a movie Monday with real estate related movies. Start with The Big Short maybe. There some others like Arizona and Larry Crowne. Could be a good idea. Loving the content my man. More is better.
Define crash. In Florida prices are still too high & most have dropped their listings. No crash here.
Graham… Quit being a salesman….
People…. Low interest rate means squat when your home value tanks and you lose your income.
Don't buy real estate at all right now! You DONT want to catch a falling knife…
Did you buy when it crashed though. If not, another one is coming don't worry. Keep tapping your heels and it'll come true! Try not to miss it!
Most people can't afford groceries. Restaurants, hotels, travel, service industries are dying. Kind of hard to watch the 5% and their real estate problems. When people have money, it's easy to forget about those that do not.
I’m a long time mortgage broker. Very little discussion about the first wave of six month forbearance coming do now for all those past payments or people adding another six months on top of that and then what if they don’t get them modified? I can’t help but seeing a wave of foreclosures coming in the next six months to two years. Because conservatives are holding onto their real estate and low inventory, buyers will still be propping up prices until it pops
Hi Graham, have you ever looked at the UK property market? I am from the states, but have been living in the UK for twenty years. We have most of the same property swings, but it might be interesting for your viewers.
thanks for the information – what we need to know is that its coming!! cant afford houses at this moment in DFW TX
My family wants to buy a house one day we have rented our whole lives I will wait when it crashes so I can buy a house for 5$ 😅
obliterating, smashing and destroying the like button ….are examples of an oxymoron…..but i always click the like button …as you are an excellent mentor
That was an excellent summary of the current real estate situation. You have a new subscriber.
It's great in some sense for someone like me who lives in NYC, even retail spaces are finally beginning to level out at some reasonable prices.
Very interesting point of view, although it may not apply for all the diferent countries. For example in Spain, we already have lower property prices. That makes it interesting for foreign buyers as well as investors. We have no shortage on properties for sale eighter. Although it is different in the mainland Spain than in the Canary Islands for example. On the islands we have a very diferent and beneficial tax regime. Im even brave enoguh to say that we are the best place in Europe to invest in real estate!
Pumper keeps on pumping until it pops… What happens to all the precious metals pumpers recently. They all disappeared from youtube and laughing all the way to their banks…
So what's a multi unit property owner to do given the hero act fails, and rent not being paid . Unemployed people falling behind . The government has the ability to right this off for the banks and the owners and renters to do a fresh start.