I believe that uh, we have seen the first signs of a federal reserve u-turn and i'm very excited about that. Now, i'm not suggesting that now's the time to go all in on margin, i'm not buying to go deeper into margin. I've done my buying i've done so much buying, i'm just like. Oh my gosh at this point.

It's just like please, just no more margin right and i'm almost out of margin like i've got four or five properties left to sell, and i only need one of them to close and i'm pretty much out of margin. So i'm like we're good. You know that actually does mean. I have a lot of excess cash that i could go buy with right now and then just essentially pay off right, but i've kind of decided not to do that, because i want to be patient.

Uh sometimes - and i realize this - and i say this is transparently possible - it's just sometimes i get too too excited to go all in on on one move like all right: let's go all in on long and margin right, it's like no! No! No! It's like. I already got the all-in part like. Let me just be patient, because i do expect that this year is still going to be quite volatile and and there's still risks that we face right like if inflation doesn't meaningfully start coming down or like we have. You know china and taiwan have a poopy doopy or something like that.

There are plenty of things that can lead the market lower. I really don't think it's a reason to be heavy in cash right now, though, but i wouldn't mind sitting, you know once my deals closed with, maybe an extra 10 15 cash and then just chill. If i want to use that money to go, you know, invest in a business or something else or some fluke. Opportunity comes up, that's great, but i'm not in a position where i feel like this crazy fomo, where i feel like.

I have to chase this market. Uh to the point where i'm leveraged up to the hilt, and i'm like i'm getting every penny out of this, it's like the the way to win in stocks. Long term uh, in my opinion, is uh, is, is by making sure that you're making decisions that aren't going to bring you to zero. Like that's, that's how you really lose.

You know people like. Oh, you shouldn't you, shouldn't have trade like you, shouldn't move into positions and out of positions. That's dumb, like people were like. Oh, you shouldn't sell a position that is now a bad position to be in is just dumb, like i hate to say it.

Okay, like there are companies that i've bought in the past that i had to sell and i'm just like, i i'm not i'm not riding you to zero. You know, i'm not riding you all the way down uh and that's because when fundamentals shift, you might not be able to ride that horsey back to the levels where they used to be because again, fundamentals have shifted right like who would have thought that the brokerage Industry wasn't going to keep booming after what we saw in 2020., i mean in 2020 the brokerage business was a freaking killer of a business to be in. Then you look at 2021 and it's like hell, yeah killer business to be in still, even though you have all this market volatility, which, if anything benefited you know, uh brokerage, the brokerage business now now, for example, you you look at uh the brokerage business and it's Like oh no like this is terrible, it's a terrible business to be in so anyway. There are absolutely some businesses uh that i've been in where i'm like nope.

These fundamentals have changed too much like, for example, and i don't want to sound like a broken record, but we we are - and this is actually it can't really be like a broken record, because this is kind of a new thing. Uh we're we've now two days in a row, and i've been really enthused about this spent like 20 to 30 minutes, just doing a deep dive, fundamental analysis on the companies and so for example. This morning we did an analysis on a company where i'm like. Oh, you know i'm tempted to buy this company and then we go do some fundamental analysis.

We're like oh poop, wait a minute hold on a second. You know like that's and that's important, it's important to spend the time to do that sort of analysis. It's just tedious, that's what it is. It's tedious, it's much easier, just short by the biggest loser and go oh look.

Tattoo chef is five dollars. Oh tattoo chef's, six dollars like wow. That's a lot lower than 18. Let's go buy it and it's like okay, but wait a minute.

If, if the industry has fundamentally changed, do we really want to be in that? If advertising is critically important and there's a failure in advertising? Well, that's a problem! If you we've got substantial food inflation and freight inflation, that's going to make operating this business profitably at any time in the future remotely you know or very, very difficult uh in in a time where, oh, no, you know like uh unprofitable companies are not getting much Attention at all the stock market. Well then, then, we want to be careful, and i think one of the things that we want to really watch for right now is that in the stock market, it's really really like intoxicating to buy really inexpensive stocks, because sometimes you see them swing like 20, 30. 40 in a day - and it's crazy right, but it's also risky, because when you have an order book that gets eaten up that much it means you don't have a thick order book so like on the buy side. You see a stock go up.

30 percent. In a day, it's like holy crap. That is a thin order book of sellers, but that also probably means you have a thin order book of sellers or buyers to go through that. And so when that reverses, you see the same kind of 20 false and it's like.

Oh okay, yeah! That's that's! Why order book matters, so these are just some things to think about some sort of like a little updates here on on some of my thoughts. I do think that it's very important to mention uh, that i mean look at look at where we are on the qqq, and you know some people like kevin, i'm tired about this. No, but no. This is like it's really important, because there are a lot of you that are still relatively cash heavy, and i respect that.

I'm like hey, i like when, when i sold in january, there were a lot of people that went cash heavy and, quite frankly, a lot of people who are cash. Heavy right now like, if you sold in january and you held till now like look what you did, you would have sold what over here uh at the 61 retracement line on the qqq and holy you'd be way down here at 2. 306. You you would have, you would have missed out on 20 of the loss of the qqq if you sold what i did and held until now, like that's freaking awesome like you'd you'd, be killing it right now, you'd be a king right now, but i think the Point of what i'm trying to say is like, and i know i said this when we were at the zero percent fibby too so like take it with a grain of salt right, take take it with a grain of salt.

That's totally fine to do, but if you're looking for a reason to buy this was a phenomenal spot. This is an even better spot. You see what i mean. Look at this look at this.

How many times did we bounce off the zero feb 24 march 8 march 14th. Uh brief bounce there on the 16th we held that line for about a week and a half over here in the beginning of may, and we actually fell another 10. But look at that. We didn't drop another 30 40 right like it's getting harder to go down even more, and so it just doesn't wouldn't surprise me at all to see a nice recovery back over the zero percent line.

Nobody knows obviously, but i do like where we are right now i like, where we're positioned. I like the idea that retail is just refusing to capitulate and i think there's a really good chance that we could actually move substantially above uh this these retracement lines again now, in my opinion, there's really no reason that we can get above like 61, maybe even 50, like somewhere between 61 and 50, i start getting nervous again thinking to myself. I don't think we can actually get above those levels until the fed has for sure you turned like it's one thing if like inflation's coming down or we're like, oh yeah, okay, the fed's gon na u-turn. That's fine! That's one thing! But in order for us to actually break these levels again, i think we need a fed that says: okay, we've raised rates we're good.

Now the economy is still strong. We saw a little bit of a pause in april as everyone freaked out over the potential for a recession. Spending came back in may maybe we didn't end up having a recession. We went through a lot of tightening a lot of financial tightening, but you know what now we're good now we're going to pause on rates inflation's coming down we're going to implement fate, flexible average inflation targeting we're going to keep doing our quantitative tightening, which is probably Going to drive bond yields up because there's a limited amount of demand, obviously for bonds, and so as bonds get bought up uh.

You know we're we're gon na see we're gon na. I'm sorry, not not it's. The other way around quantitative tightening is uh is when we take cheese. Now, i'm just confusing myself.

Let me just re-phrase all this right here when we go through what we go through uh between now and september, and then the fed says: hey we're good we're on this path of recovery. Now the economy's strong again, but then then i think we could actually potentially start actually breaking the levels that we have here, whether it's the 50s, the 60 percent, something like that. You know qqq, 370 and so on so forth. That's when i think it makes reasonable sense for us to actually start moving again and that's when we can get back to this longer term trend line, see look at this longer term trend line that we have right here right.

I do think that we we could re return to some form of trend like this. Maybe it's the lower trend line whatever but see this channel right here is actually pretty incredible and we've substantially broken off of that right now and i think there's there's a way to revert back to this, but not until we get inflation back under control and then We can kind of continue with just train america moving up, so i'm very optimistic about that uh very much so so uh that'll be uh. That will be very, very uh fun. That's that's what i thought and i'm hoping that's like q3 q4, where we kind of have that environment again.

So, in other words, if we saw run like it's it's you know. Let's say this run goes for four weeks right and we have another four week run that looks like this. This was about two weeks right here. Right and let's say we have a four week run and we're trading over here like 76 to 100 and inflation's, not actually meaningfully coming down, i'm shorting or selling, like i'm just going to be totally clear about that like it's, not it's not flip-flopping, i'm clearly defining My plan, it's the same thing that we did at jd, where it's like: okay, wow we've got some huge changes.

Let's define a plan we're going to sell we're going to rebuy within 60 days boom. That's exactly what i've done and so far it's been a matter of holding the course. Unless, of course, we see rampant euphoria in the market or a sign that the federal reserve is going to paul, volcker us and we're really not seeing that today, and so i think that's why we're seeing a little bit of a risk on rally now, one of The things that does make me a little bit more concerned is the fact that crypto is not actually holding up uh. You know and remember.

I think this is a good opportunity to mention that uh. If you want to get yourself free, crypto, every time you trade, crypto worth more than ten dollars, make sure to go to medkevin.com ftx type, that into your browser download the web app get into ftx use the trading view technical analysis. It's amazing download the iphone or android app kevin.com fdx, and if you download the app you sign up through the app make sure to use code meet cap, then you'll get free crypto every time you trade over 10, but we also have to talk about some crypto Fundies, because so far you know in like the last 30 minutes into close we're having a little bit of optimism come back to uh at least bitcoin, but i'll tell you. We've got some problems when all of a sudden, the stock market is starting to rally especially tech in the nasdaq, which has been very well correlated to btc, and now you have btc actually snapping this correlation.

Now there are a lot of potential reasons for this. We've got a futures rollover for btc happening today, uh there's not a lot of uh crypto liquidity. Right now you know there's a lot of like money, market liquidity, but not a lot of crypto liquidity in terms of available cash for buying you can get. You know bitcoin right now for 28.88, you know ethereum set 1753, and so the terra luna situation has really created a lot of a lingering fear uh in crypto and a lingering hedging and it's possible that crypto is actually overhead at this point to where maybe maybe We could end up seeing some form of relief rally where we see btc push to 35 000 within the next couple weeks.

I do think that uh, that is, that's actually likely to happen uh if we end up seeing uh the stock market continue to rally. Of course, we've got a three day weekend coming up, so we've got three minutes left the trading right now and then we go into a three-day weekend. Uh. Hopefully, volatility is just relaxed next week, the week after that we'll be going into cpi.

So we have expectations that top line cpi number top line. Cpi print is actually going to come in a little hot and if the top line cpi comes in a little hot uh, that's that's going to create some fear and that's because we've actually seen oil prices rise. That recently - and so hopefully we see core come down though, but then again that's that's potentially opium right. It's a big deal, so uh we'll see we'll see but uh big deal so uh, okay.

Anyway, i want to also clarify what i was saying about bonds, because i stumbled over that - and i just want to make it very clear. When uh, the federal reserve goes through a phase of quantitative tightening what they're doing is they're, taking all the bonds that they used to buy. Remember they used to buy, like you know, 50 to 100 billion dollars of bonds every single month right, bye, bye bye was like. I think it was up to 120 billion dollars of bonds that they used to buy it.

That's 120 billion dollars of bonds uh every single month, and so what they would do is they would pay 120 billion dollars. So when they're paying they're putting cash into the accounts, essentially of banks and money market funds and so on or even gses, you know government sponsored entities when they tighten. They do the opposite. So what they're going to do in this case is they're going to take those bonds back uh.

Sorry, the other way they're going to sell those bonds right so they're going to get rid of those bonds they're going to sell those bonds back to the market. Well, to sell the bonds back to the market, the market has to buy them. So now cash goes to the fed, the bonds, the ious, the u.s treasuries, go back, the you know, basically, cash equivalents because they're still treasuries right. Those go back to the gses, the money market, funds and everything.

Now the fed has effectively taken cash out of the market and they did that by selling bonds and when you sell bonds, you lower the value of them, because you have more sellers that actually increases yields not going to be good for a real estate market. So i know we've seen rates tick down a little bit here recently, but i think that uh that's going to be short-lived, we'll see it's worth noting that uh us or the five-year break even is up to 2.99 uh. We've got the uh, that's a little bit of a move up. So we've seen the break-even rate move up a little bit.

Yield curve has been relatively stable. The last couple months sitting at about 25.7 basis points. Do you want to look at a few last uh sort of just minute kind of like the stocks that we've got uh and some things moving around in stock in the stock market? Uh i've been a big fan of buying as much tech as possible. Favorite uh, favorite name or names and tech is, in my opinion, it's a great thing to pay attention to uh.

It is fascinating to see on a day like today a lot of risk on behavior. This is very, very classic retail. It's eating up that order book. In amc, it's eating up the order book on upstart eating up the order book on on open door, which i think open door is like a terrible play in this market.

You know brokerage business robinhood. The earnings aren't going to get better here, but the thing is uh. The the this rising tide that you see on a risk on day will help push uh all of these companies up because i don't actually think there's a substantial amount of fundamental analysis going on frequently on on many here uh. Although you know robin hood has a fantastic cash position and uh, you know to some degree.

I believe that uh they're they're not going to be burning through all that cash to where they're you know, they're going to destroy shareholders, so i do think at some levels. There's value, i just don't know how heavy i would want to go on on how many of them uh of you know, lemonade. I think phenomenal company problem is we got to get to profitability right and so the path to profitability. A little bit blurrier here, matterport went profitable, matterport great opportunity, in my opinion, uh, although you know i do question their their latest technology release.

They did send us one of their new cameras. It was like 70 bucks or something like that and uh i'm not the biggest fan of it. I still want to post a review of that uh. I meant to do that uh.

That reminds me. I got to do that, but anyway uh. So i'll give some honest feedback on what's going on with their latest device uh. Obviously, if we see a consumer spending rebound like the consumer spending numbers that we saw this morning in the pce you're gon na see stocks like you know, a firm move up.

Anything related consumer spending. You've got your tech over here like you've, got tesla or you've got uh, you know, and video right these are phenomenal. Phenomenal plays phenomenal companies uh. Obviously, you should evaluate concerns carefully out of all them, one that i was talking to course.

Members about this morning that has really been holding up really really well, is actually end phase. You know it's it's been through some crazy bounces uh. I bought this thing at like 120 and sold it at 190 between march and like april, or something like that, and so i was really glad. I took some attendees over here, but i'll tell you.

I know it went back down to like 160 but boy. Oh boy, i was not expecting it to hold up this well now. I do think it's still short-term because i do think we're gon na end up moving into this environment, where oh, no uh, you know people are gon na go crap. My home value is stagnating.

I'm not gon na spend as much money on my home, but i will say if i had to pick a solar plan, the end phase all day long. So i i think it's phenomenal phenomenal company phenomenal plan so very excited about that uh. You know other plays here, uh cloudflare, i mean look. If you want cyber security cloudflare.

This was like over 200 bucks right. Look at it! It's 58! Now it's just it's insane to see some of the compression that we've seen, but i really look at this as just like, even after the increases and percentages that we're seeing today, don't get discouraged by them a lot of the valuations. These companies are still relatively low. Like you just go back uh, you know three weeks ago and some of these numbers are just like absolutely unheard of so i know it might be like oh darn.

I wish i bought this in the morning and then that's up 14. At the end of the day, or whatever that's a very normal feeling to have, i would look at companies that you really feel confident in that you want to hold for the next. You know five years or whatever, that's obviously the goal unless of course, there's in my opinion, like some crazy euphoria, then i don't mind people taking profits. Obviously, but in such environments, like just look at like oh my gosh, you thought it was a good deal a month ago.

Well like today, look at the deals today right and i know to some degree. There are folks that are like exactly kevin. That's what we're gon na have a month from now you're like it's a good deal today, look at it in june. I don't think so.

You know i don't. I don't see that much negativity. I mean you look at the fed funds futures. I i don't see how much more uh real pain we have based on.

What's being priced in, so i don't know, i don't know uh. So somebody says why: why sell yeah? It's actually a good question so like, for example, when when etsy went to 300, almost that was during november, and it was during a very euphoric time. I took little 10 sales on the company. I wish i sold substantially more because we were in a time of like hysteria like mass euphoria, and so i did little like 10 cells.

I remember like 280 290, i'm like i'm going to sell 10 and we sell 10, we sell 10 and like looking back, i'm like i should have sold everything i mean. Obviously hindsight is 20 20., but even during that time, like i'm looking at it like, if the price is way detached from fundamentals to the upside, like i need to dump this, and so you can, like things, tend to rubber band back to fundamentals. It takes patience, but you don't want to get caught up in this idea that oh, it's just going to keep going forever and then you're buying etsy at you know 307 and look at it now it's at 82, you know so so selling has a benefit yeah. I do think that for for most people, most people should not sell, because it's the the hardest part about people who sell is is actually rebuying.

That's the really hard part right. So i generally advocate. Don't don't sell like just buy stuff when there's pain like there's a lot of pain right now, just buy stuff now and hold it, and if, if you're not interested in individual stocks, then just buy a basket of index funds and forget about it. You know just use this as an opportunity to dollar cost average and and increase your your quantity, not so much your your uh.

Your brokerage account right now just focus on increasing your quantity of ownership, like that's, a very big deal uh. But if, if you are a single stock investor, you you can't not trim when the market gets euphoric uh and you also ca it's just like you can't not add when the market gets excessively pessimistic, that doesn't mean you have to like close out everything uh. You know so so these are all determinations that you have to make. I mean even warren buffett when things are excessively pessimistic, he adds uh and when things are excessively euphoric he sells you know.

I think people think that, like oh well, if you do that, you're a traitor uh, no, that's called being an investor and being smart. So anyway, all right! Folks, good luck out! There appreciate you, oh make sure, by the way, to check out the programs on building your wealth linked down below uh, really appreciate. If you check that out, we've got that code expiring, a monday which is a holiday and so do check that out. We've got a large price increase coming for june, which i'm very excited about, because we're dropping some new content.

We're also now doing the fundamental analysis live streams which are super fun, because this is the time to be focused on fundamental analysis. It's a great time in the vi in the environment, check out ftx via the link down below and yeah appreciate you being here and remember if you need financial advice, contact your personal financial advisor and the reason i say that is because without knowing your personal situation, I couldn't give you financial advice and i don't get financial advice. My goal for you is to think to yourself. Okay, what ideas can i get, and what can i put together to try to establish? You know my own way, uh, you know, there's there's no way to figure that out.

Unless you know hey, what's your income, what are your debts? You know, what are your plans? What are your ambitions? How hard can you work? How much margin can you cope with? You know what what's your mentality for investing versus spending right? These are really important things, and so the goal again of all the videos i make is: what can i do to try to arm you with with perspective, and hopefully i've accomplished that so thanks so much for being here, we'll see you next time, bye.