Hey hey: what's up my friends, so in today's training you will learn a moving average trading strategy that actually works, because how often have you learned a trading strategy like the moving average and you find out that it doesn't quite work. For example, if you look at this one over here, this is one of the earliest trading strategies that i've traded. I was taught right that you know uh. This so-called guru told me that you know hey rainer when the fast moving average crosses above the slow mo moving average.

You look to buy so over. Here i buy right at this price point and when they fast moving average crosses below the slow moving average. You sell so i sell over here right so when it crosses below i sell over here and what i realized it is that when the markets get choppy when it goes into a range market, i encountered losses after losses after losses. Now i don't want this right to happen to you right, so this is why, in today's training, i want to share with you an effective moving average trading strategy, so you have to go through right.

The same thing that i did so specifically today. You will learn number one: what is the moving average indicator and how does it work, because this is something that ninety percent of traders don't even know what that is? They just put it on a chart without knowing what a moving average really is so i'll break. It down to you step by step to what this indicator is about, and how does it work number two. I will share with you the two biggest mistakes that most traders make when using moving average and how you can avoid it.

This will save you a ton of money, then i'll share with you an effective moving average trading strategy, so you can profit in boo and bear markets and, finally, along the way i'll give you a ton of trading examples, so you can master this trading strategy fast. Sounds good then, let's dive in so what is a moving average, so moving average is actually an indicator that calculates the average price over a given period. So, let's say, for example, a five-day moving average a five-day moving average will calculate the average price over the last five days. So let me illustrate this, so you understand it better.

It's very simple! Really! So if a five-day moving average, let's say you have a five candle on your chart, one two, three four and five, and let's say we make things simple right over the last five days right. The price closed at this one is close at one dollar. This one closed at two dollars: market closed at three dollars, four dollars and five dollars. So let me ask you: what is the average price over the last five days and if you know math right, simple basic math, you just take one plus two plus three plus 4 and plus 5..

You divide by 5 to get the average and the answer is 3., so the 5 day moving average in this case right is at 3 dollars, so just putting like one dot over here. So you can imagine right if the price continues to go higher, this dot will continue to move up higher because the average price is increasing. So, let's say price continue to go up higher higher higher the dot gets higher and higher. When you connect the dots, it becomes a line on your chart.

So this is why moving average, you know is like those squiggly line that you see on the chart. It goes up goes down, so that is in essence right. What the moving average indicator is. All about so now, let me share with you right two right common mistakes that almost all new traders make when they deal with moving average number one.

It's this, they use moving average when the market is ranging. Now why is this a problem? Let me show you so if you look at this chart over here, you can see this blue line. Here is the 50 period moving average, okay and you'll notice that the market this market, simply just chop up and down this moving average like like a hot knife through butter, it goes up, it comes down, goes up, comes down, goes up, comes down, goes up, it Doesn't really respect the moving average shadow, it just simply ignores it. So you can imagine that if you are using your moving average to time your entry, maybe you know when the price breaks above the moving average you buy.

You can see that you will suffer consistent losses right from this. This particular you know market condition. So this is why the first thing to share with you is: if the market is trending, or rather the market is ranging avoid using moving average mistake. Number two: is: this: traders are using the moving average indicator when the market isn't respecting it.

So what do i mean by this? So, yes, the market is trending, but it doesn't mean that you use any tom dickhary moving average on your chart. So let me explain so if you look at this over here. Okay, this is a chart of copper. This market is trending great, but a mistake that many traders make is that they are using the wrong moving average right for this particular market condition.

So they can use like the 200 period moving average because it's the most watched moving average in the world right so called. You know uh most watch moving average indicator in the world and you can see that in this case right, if you are using this moving average to time your entry, you can see that there's not much valid entry points to use and that's because this current market Condition, even though it's trending doesn't respect the 200 period moving average. So now let me show you right what i mean by the market respects the moving average indicator. So in this case i overlay with the 50 period moving average.

You can see. Do you see the difference notice how this moving average right is being tested once then, it bounce tested twice bounce up higher three times bounce up higher four times bounce up higher and then five times over here? So you can see the difference right between a market that respects a certain moving average and a market that clearly doesn't respect it at all. So as a quick recap right, these are the two mistakes right that you want to avoid when dealing with moving average. So now the question is: how do you use moving average in your trading? Well, that's what i'm going to share with you right now, i'm going to share with you a moving average trading strategy that you can use to profit in buu and bear markets.

Okay. Now let me share with you the rules of this moving average trading strategy. First thing: first, the market must be in an uptrend because, as you've learned right, moving average indicator, it doesn't work well when the market is ranging. You want to use the moving average when the market is trending higher second thing, and this is important - the price respects the 50 period moving average and is about to retest it again.

So now, at this point you might be wondering rainer why why the 50 period moving average? What is so special about this? So there's nothing special about the 50 period moving average, but the reason why i go with it is because, when the market respects the 50 period moving average, the depth of the pullback is usually quite obvious and there's enough time right for you to time your entry Compared to let's say a shorter term moving average like a 10 period, moving average if the market respects the 10 period moving average, the trend usually looks something like this. It goes up. The pullback is very shallow and then continues up higher, pulls back and continues higher. So in this case, you can see that when the pullback is very shallow, it is very quickly right before the price would continue higher and before you want to buy right.

The next thing you know the market is already you know off higher. It has already bounced off higher, so this is why you know it is difficult to react right when the pullback is so short. So this is why i prefer to go with the 50 period moving average, where the depth of the pullback is more obvious, where it looks something like this right. The pullback is more obvious, goes up higher and it goes up higher.

So at this point you can see that when the pullback is deeper, there's enough time for you to time your entry right and to get on board this uptrend, okay. So now the next thing you know: how do you know that a particular market respects the 50 period moving average, because there's no guarantee that the market will respect the 50ma right? You could just slice through it like butter. So this is why i'm looking for at least two tests of the 50 period moving average. So let me explain so: let's say, for example, market hits higher pull back, hits higher, pull back, hits higher, pull back and when you overlay with the 50 period moving average, it looks something like this right notice.

The market tested once over here twice over here. So this is what i mean by two tests when there is at least two tests right, it tells you that there's a good chance. This market respects the moving average and you can use the 50 period moving average to help you time your entry, okay. So now, when it comes back and retest the moving average again, we don't want to just blindly hit the buy button.

We want to look for another sign right, some clues that the market is about to you know uh, or rather the buyers are about to push the price higher. So to look for that clue over here, okay, i am looking for a bullish price rejection. I'm looking for buyers right to come in and tell me that they are about to take the price up higher and to look for a bullish price rejection. We can study candlestick patterns, right, bullish, reversal, candlestick patterns, and let me explain to you briefly.

You know why why i'm using this - and you know how to actually spot this price patterns on your chart. So first thing: first, is you can look for something called the hammer, so the significance of a hammer goes something like this. This is the opening price of the candlestick. Okay, then, when the price open right, the sellers right quickly took control and pushed the price down near this low of this candle of this time period.

And then, when all looks, you know gloom and doom right. The buyers right found energy. They found the string to push the price up higher and finally closing near the highs of the day. So this tells you right that the sellers got overwhelmed at the start of the day right, the buyers got overwhelmed, as the sellers pulls.

The price down lower and near the extreme lows right, where you know the the buyers got beaten up. You know when things look gloom and doom right, they found the strength. They found the courage and push the price up higher and finally closing near the highs of the day. So if you look at this candlestick pattern right, this is a sign of price rejection.

This is a sign of rejection of lower prices, right notice, the price come down, they rejected this lower prices and then reverse up higher. So this is what i call a bullish price rejection. So, of course, hammer is not the only way to represent a polish price rejection. You can use another pattern.

What we call the bullish engulfing pattern and the story is similar. You can see that on this first candle here price open at this price point push the price down lower, closing near the lows of this time period, the next day or the next candle, the buyers open near the lowest and push the right price up near the Highs and even closing right above the highs of the previous day, so again, the the story behind it is similar right sellers were in control. Okay, then, we got overwhelmed with the by the buyers and finally, the price reversed up higher and closed near the highs of this time period. So this is what i mean by you know: bullish price rejection.

So this is what we're looking for a bullish price rejection. The fourth thing we are looking to set our stop loss right, one atr below the swing low. So just to briefly illustrate it look something like this. Let's say market is trending up higher.

Okay, then, let's say you market hits higher. You buy at this point. Okay, when you buy at this point right, you want to set your stop-loss right, a distance away from this low right, probably somewhere here. Okay, you want to set it smack just under this low, because the market sometimes could spike through the lows and then continue higher.

So if you set your stop loss just below the low, you might get stopped up prematurely. So usually, my stop-loss right from this low to here right is what is 180, so don't worry i'll share with you how to calculate it later on how to set your stop-loss, but basically this is the idea we're trying to give our stop-loss some buffer. So we don't get stopped up prematurely and, finally right you can look to take profit just before the nearest swing high. So all along right, this, this uh simply looks uh something along this slice.

Let me just draw how this will look like. We are looking for the market to be in an uptrend okay for the trend right for this market to respect the 50 period moving average. So we are looking for at least two tests so over here we have one test and two tests. It is coming back here for a third time, so this test right.

We are looking for a bullish price rejection which could be in the form of a hammer like this okay. So if that happens, we can enter on the next day open. So our stop loss is one atr below the most recent swing low, which is somewhere about here, okay and as for target, we can look to take just before this most recent swing high. So if the price hits up higher right, we can look to sell right.

Just before this most recent swing hike, so let me share with you a few chart. Examples right, so you can see this our trading strategy in action. Okay, now, let's do a quick recap right to the trading strategy, components that you've just learned and also you can also use this as a trading checklist. If you wish so first thing.

First, remember: we need a trending market because moving average works best in the trending market and i explained to you how to actually define the trend number two. Once we have a trending market, we want to identify the area of value, and this is where the 50 period moving average can come into play. I shared with you how to actually look for two tests right to confirm that the market or the trend right is respecting the 50 period moving average. Then the third thing is the entry trigger.

I share with you candlestick patterns that you can use to time. Your entry for bullish market - you can use, you know the hammer pattern, the bullish engulfing pattern in a downtrend, you can use things like the shooting star pattern or the bearish engulfing pattern. And finally, we spoke about exits right. You know where to set your stop loss, and you know where to set your target if the market moves in your favor.

So as of right now, i'm going to share with you a few trading examples right to see how this trading strategy works. Right when you are, you know, trading the markets, so have a look at this chart over here. You can see over here. First thing: first, what is the first thing that we are looking for? Can you remember, number one a trend, and in this case we have a downtrend notice, the price making a series of lower highs, lower highs, lower highs, lower highs and lower lows.

Self-Explanatory number two, the area of value. So in this case, if you overlay with the 50 period moving average, you will see a few things number one price tested once hit down lower second test over here hit down lower, and then we have a third test over here great the 50 period. Moving average is acting as an area of value. Third thing: do we have a valid entry trigger and if you recap to the candlestick pattern, lessons that we were on, you will be familiar right with this pattern.

This is what we call a bearish engulfing pattern. This tells you that at one point the buyers they were bullish right, remember, bullish near the highs and then it closed right rather bullishly. On this day, the next day the sellers came in push the price down lower, closing near the lows of the date. So remember it's kind of like getting a for exams, a for epson same the same meaning over here, so the buyers got overwhelmed right and the selling pressure uh came in and took control.

So we have the three components here: the trend we have, the area of value and one with the trend number two: we have the area of value, which is the 50 period moving average and then number three. We have our bearish engulfing pattern. Let's call it be number four: what is it the exits? Where do you set your stop-loss? What if the market moves against you, so i shared with you the atr technique just find out. What's the current atr value add-on to this swing high over here and i'm guessing it's probably somewhere here.

This is where your stop-loss should be right. It's based on some rough estimation. What about targets right remember? We said that when we look for targets in a downtrend, we want to set our take profit level just before the swing low, because this is where potential buying pressure could come in and push the price higher. So we would probably you know, have our target somewhere about this level over here right.

So this we can call this tp, okay, tp, and if you want to look what happens next, all right. If you look at the next kendall price, you know we would have you know, entered on this candle open, okay, this candle, open, we get into a trade stop-loss target, can be set ahead of time and then watch what happens right in this case uh. Of course, this is a cherry pick chart and this market pretty much went in our favor, and one thing to point out is that any trading strategy that you trade there will be winners and losers right. There is no such thing as 100 winning rate and stuff.

Like that right, there will be winners and losers in it's the same for this particular trading strategy, and i can share with you one loser right now. As you can see the market, you know eventually did re-test back this area of value that we have over here. Okay, so notice here at this point, market came back into this area of value and we have this re-bearish reversal pattern over here. I wouldn't consider this a bearish engulfing pattern as it didn't cover the body of the previous candle, but some traders will look at this entry trigger as a valid trading setup and they will go short right since, after all the sellers, you know, reverse back the uh.

More than half of the previous day gains right, closing near the lows over here, so some traders will go short on the next day open and their stop loss again will be the same. One atr above this highs or somewhere about here target, could be before the recent swing low, possibly somewhere here. Let's see about here right somewhere about here is their target and in this case right i can just let you know that this trade is probably a losing trade as the market, you know, break up higher. So again, this is to let you know that no trading strategy works all the time and to kind of manage your expectations right in the real world of trading.

Okay, so moving on right, let's have a look at another trading example and by the way, if you're wondering the previous example is actually the uh u.s 30-year bond futures market, and that was the four-hour time frame so moving on this is the dollar against the chinese Yuan, this is a forex market and this time around, we are on the eight hour time frame. So this is kind of like to show you that this trading strategy, the concepts that i'm sharing with you right, can be employed across different markets and time frame. So first thing: first again, first question right: number: one: the trend: do we have a valid trend over here and, as you can see, right, the price forming a series of lower lows and lower highs, lower high, lower high, lower high and lower lows, as you can See trend is towards the downside, great. We have a downtrend number two area of value, so this is where uh things is a little bit more interesting.

You can see that number one. It's this area of value, it's not as ideal as i would like, because when you overlay with the 50 period moving average, it's not really respecting it to the exact level. Yes, it's an area, and you can see that the area got breached right a little bit by quite a number of times right over here bounce off that 50ma another one second time, and at that time this one by really quite a bit. Okay, then, fourth time over here and then fifth time we are here again.

So another thing to point out is that when you are using this area of value concept right, sometimes you might get multiple areas of value stacking on one another. So in this case, you can see that the 50 period moving average. I would say yes, it's an area of value, not exactly the cleanest one, where it bounces off near the exact level, but rather you know it whips around that area quite a bit, but still i'll treat this as an area of value. And if you recall the earlier lesson, i i said that you know when it comes to area of value.

You can use different tools, for you can use support resistance trend line and moving average and even trend channels and much more if you wish to, and in this case right you can see that this market actually came into this area of resistance, as well notice of Which i'm going to highlight this level out previous support support, support which became resistance right when the price broke below it, become resistance? And then right now it's at this previous area of resistance as well. So we have two areas of value are coming together: the 50 period moving average and this area of resistance, so now area of value. Clearly right has met our criteria, the third thing: what about entry trigger? So if you look into this right, we you'll see right that there is some kind of you know. Bearish price rejection over here we didn't get any rate candle.

This is what our traders would call a dragonfly doji, but in essence, you can see that the price are rejecting these higher prices over here and the closing price and the opening price is pretty much at the same level. So this is again right. A valid entry trigger you know that you can use to go short. The main thing that we are looking for is rejection of higher prices right in the downtrend, so in this case we can see right rejection of this higher prices over here.

This long, this shadow over here this upper shadow, is in essence right telling you that the buyers right got overwhelmed by the sellers and that's how the price you know reversed back down towards the opening price of the day. So that's how we get this pattern over here next day the market opened over here you can look to go short now what about stop loss? So if you recall stop loss, i like to use the 20 period atr so i'll just walk you through this stop loss exercise to just kind of refresh your memory. So what you'll do is you'll pull out the 20 period atr. The value right now is 0.0155.

So find out, what's the highest price point over here and add on 0.0155, which is the current atr value. So if to walk you through this exercise, this high, the point is about six dollars. Six point: five: five: three! Okay! So i'll take six point: five! Five! Three: oh six point five five and add on one atr and i can find the one atr value over here, which is 0.0154 and take my trusty calculator out, and it gives me six point. Five.

Five three plus point: zero one: five, five, four and answer is six point: five, six, eight five, six point: five, six, eight five! So if you're going to sell right on this candle open, your stop loss will be at 6.5685 and i'm just going to use this little tool over here to demarcate my stop loss. Let's change this to how about rate color, so we know it's, you know, stop loss and the coordinates is at basically the level five, six, eight five press, okay and there you have it so this red line over here is your stop loss and, from this point To this point, okay, this distance is in essence one atr, as shown over here so now what about target? So, if you recall in a downtrend, we want to set our target right before opposing pressure comes in before this before the swing low. So in essence, right i can see that there is this couple of swing low and this swing low over here. So you want to be confident.

Conservative right, i would say somewhere about here right, would be a good uh level right to consider. You know taking profits right for this particular trading setup. So what's the outcome of this trade? I'm not going to share with you, because the individual outcome from a trade to trade basis is pretty much irrelevant because in the short run your trading results are random. I want you to know, take this strategies, these concepts, you know, do the back testing before testing yourself and see whether you know it will work for you now, let's move on to the stock markets right and see how this trading strategy right can be applied to It as well so same concept over here number one.

What is the trend? This market is in an uptrend series of higher highs and higher lows number two: where is the area of value? So, as you can see over here this market, we have uh one test over here. Two tests here almost also consider this a third test. Let me break out of this swing high and came back for a fourth test over here, so yep area value. If it is 50 period moving average clearly, this market respects it and, on top of the 50 period moving average, you can see that there is also this.

Previously. It was a swing high price broke above it and it re-tested swing. High now became a swing low and then back here again so actually this is an area of support right as it that is acting as an area of value as well, so the 50 period moving average and this area of support, so multiple uh factors coming together For your area of value and then the third thing is there a valid entry trigger. So if you look at this most recent bar over here, you will see that this market, the previous day the price closed, are really bearishly below the 50 period moving average.

But the next day it gets up higher and pretty much close right near the highs of the day. So you can see that previous date, wow sellers were in control right. You know celebration, let's celebrate all right and the next day the buyers step in and push the price right back to. You know uh near the highs right of the day.

So this is where you know. Suddenly, you know, selling buying pressure came in right and reverse right, uh, quite a bit of the losses right from the previous day, so we can see that no buying pressure is now stepping in and on top of it right, we are trading in the direction of The train from an area of value, so the story here is pretty good. So again to me: that's a valid entry trigger to go long as it shows you know, bullish price rejection, buyers coming in to push the price up higher. You know you can see this kind of like a a quick reversal up higher and again, if you can't really, you know see this right, a line chart sometimes might be able to help you just pull out a line chart.

You can see that the quick spike all right it came down and a quick spike up higher, so there you can see that it's kind of like a v like this, so this tells you there is a rejection of lower prices. The price is: the market is rejecting this lower prices, so anyway uh. Where was i so now stop loss? You should be a pro by this by now right, just pull out your atr indicator find out what is the atr value? Take the low over here minus one atr, and that is your stop loss. Now, let's talk about target: where do you want to take profits so again in an uptrend right? You want to take profits before the swing high, because that is where opposing pressure could come in.

This is where sellers could come in. So if you look at this right, this over here to me, looks like a swing high or some of you might call it an area of resistance. So again i won't recommend putting in 104 or 108, because this is an area on your chart. The price right may not get to that level and then reverse earlier.

You know the market. The market could possibly come up higher. You know before it reaches this high, it starts to reverse lower and if you set your target, you know two, i would say too optimistically right. The market will get close right to your take profit level right only to reverse all your profits.

You know see all your open profits just you know vaporize in front of your eyes. So that's usually what happens right when you are too kind of like optimistic with your target, so be a little bit more conservative. If you have seen or if you can identify the swing high, you know set it a little bit lower somewhere around 99 or so right. That would be a good level to take profits.

So again, right no point sharing with you the outcome of this trade, because the process is what matters. Okay, let's have a look at one more trading example right before we move on back to the uh powerpoint, slides presentation. So again same thing: number one ask yourself: what's the trend of this market market this in an uptrend number, two area of value? So at this point i haven't overlaid the 50ma, so you won't know if the market respects the 50ma, but from what you can see right this over here is an area of value right. This previous swing high right, which has now become support, support and the price is back here once again, so we clearly have this support acting as an area of value and if i were to overlay with the 50ma yep right, pretty much it as well right.

The price has tested the 50 period, moving average once twice and now the third time over here, and in fact it could be even testing uh more than three times now. If i, you know, go back in time to see the charts, but again i'm not just i'm not going to do that, since you know you pretty much know where i'm coming from and finally the last thing do we have a valid entry trigger. So let me share this with you, you can see over here. Yes, we do right.

We noticed that over here, price right has a gap below the previous day and then closed bullishly higher. So at this point i to be honest, i will be hesitant right to to buy because, after all, the the market, the price this stock right - has not reclaimed right back this area of support and he has not reclaimed back above the 50 period moving average. So i at this point to be honest, to be honest, i won't buy yet i want to see the price you know break back above the 50 period, moving average and break back above support. That tells me that the buyers are really back here right with conviction.

So that actually happened right on the next day and no doubt when that happened right i it will seem that i'm actually entering at a later price and that's perfectly fine with me, because that's kind of like the the price i'm paying for quote unquote confirmation. So when this happened, the price over here has break back above the 50 period, moving average and back above this area of support. As you can see over here on this candle, i will now enter on the next day open, which is on this candle over here. So next day, market open here right and i will enter stop loss, one atr below this lows again, you're a pro.

You know to do it now, it's probably somewhere at this level and as for target remember we want to set it right. Just before opposing pressure comes in before they swing high, so say over here. Right is a pretty conservative level for targets. So in this case, what what about outcome of this trade, okay, i'll just share with share this outcome with you this one right, you can see that the market did eventually get to our target, but it's not exactly the smoothest path to it.

So initially our target was here somewhere about here price hit up close. Then he made a pullback, so some traders who are not comfortable right with watching some of the open profits. You know you know, reverse or get smaller or even turn into back into a small loss. All right, they might.

You know exit the trade too early, but if you have a plan - and you stick to it right, yeah in this case right it eventually, you know reach your target over here. So sometimes, when you set your profit target, is the market won't? Just you know zoom right in one straight line, you know, give you give you money in the bank bam right. It sometimes will pull back. You know mess with your emotions and if you have a concrete trading plan in place, if you know where it's your stops, where's your target, you can just you know, kind of let the trade play out the way you know it's supposed to be okay.

So, in this case, right there's a little bit of you know, sitting on the hands before the price reaches your target and, of course, another way to look at this is that some of you might argue right here. You know at this point when the market makes you know a retracement now at this point, this swing high right. This is where opposing pressure could now come in, and i agree yes, this is another level where opposing pressure could come in. So what you want to do is that, if you are, you know a little bit more conservative.

You can see how the price reacts at this level. If, let's say the price comes up into this level, and then it forms like a shooting star pattern like this. Okay, so in this case you can take a more proactive approach right and say: hey there's, you know uh selling pressure over here. The market could start to reverse from here.

I'm perfectly happy to exit my trade at this swing high. If that's the case, that's a perfectly, you know, fine uh thought right, and you know i would say that's a good trade nonetheless, okay. So so this kind of like additional things, to share with you right when it comes to your trading talk process, because this is actually the top process that i go through right when i'm trading this myself. Now, if you have enjoyed today's training, then you will love this book called price action trading secrets.

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