What's going on, everybody welcome to episode 10 of the tui talk show i have a special guest with me here today, anthony or all day a on twitter he's a good friend, well i'd, say a better a much better friend than before. I mean we started talking. What a few months ago, now, um and yeah very, very similar style of trading anthony's, also a long, biased trader here we trade very very similarly in my opinion, but i want to let anthony introduce himself here we're going to talk about essentially the state of the Market today we have a chart from literally today. I'm recording this on may 5th.

It's a thursday - and i normally do this on friday, but i will not be in the office tomorrow so trade from today, despite the market being down over four percent at one point and anthony's still crushed that long and then we're also going to get into kind Of a topic that i think anthony i both find very interesting is the current state of the real estate market too, but before we get too deep into anything, anthony go off. Tell the people about yourself anything you think they should know and give them a little introduction. What's going on everybody um, so everyone uh, my name, is all day. People know me on twitter as all day, i'm a long, biased trader from new jersey.

I moved down to florida last year. Basically, you know just a an average trader on twitter. You know talking crap uh, trolling everybody on twitter, um, just small cap longs is my uh criteria. You know i i um.

I started actually 10 years ago. Uh to this day, i actually walked into a prop firm on may 5th 2012. I believe yeah 2012. i actually walked in.

It was that's great, that's crazy! I'm just thinking about right now, yeah may 5th 2012. I walked into a prop firm and it's a 10 year anniversary for you, 10 episode anniversary for me. There's the the the signs are all five plus five may 5th. It's all that's crazy! That is wild, i'm just i'm just thinking about that right now, actually, uh.

It should be in my memories on like facebook or whatever, but um yeah. I walked into a prop firm and ever since that day i was just hooked. You know i went to school for biology uh to start. You know i want to become a uh, a physical therapist or a doctor, and then um, i uh, i bombed up.

You couldn't get lower than the c or c in biology in any of those courses, or else you had to take retake it. So i got a c in biology, funny story and then i was like f this. I'm gon na go into economics and finance and i switched and um yeah. So i i graduated with an economics degree and um.

Then my senior year, i took an investment course and you know i shorted apple that year and i made a lot of - i made a lot of paper money in that class and i won. I won that little um the challenge in the class and uh. Then i walked into a prop firm about you know, two months later after during the spring semester in may and uh yeah, i walked into a platform and i was completely hooked. You know i didn't.

I didn't end up trading for the prop firm because it was basically a scam. It's like hey. We want ten thousand dollars. I was like hey, i don't know you and so uh.

You know that so you know like i was like you know, i'm a jersey! Kid you know like i'm, not like the the proper jersey kid that you guys will see you know but um my dad's, not a lawyer, uh stuff like that um, but yeah. So i walked into a prop firm and ever since that was hooked. And then i you know we we actually learned about tim sykes a couple months after that and we dove into some videos seriously bryce. I mean we after that.

We dove into some videos, tim sykes and then i met uh. Then i heard of nate through through sykes, and then i uh became buddies with kunal through nate and yeah. I uh i signed up for uh a chat from bulls on wall street with canal and he uh. He introduced me to a whole world of freaking trading and ever since then you know he worked with me, one-on-one uh till that day and that's it and i just took off and started doing my own thing and then you know me from mad as right.

I yeah yeah from i mean from way back then that would have been like 2017 2018 and then i haven't uh was in there for a few months and then i just kind of went to twitter and you know from there. That was where i started um between. I met a lot of uh people through sykes, the sykes community and then just twitter too uh. One of my actually a couple of my past guests.

Uh ron connor met them on twitter met, anthony back with uh matt has but like really started talking through twitter. I think i think we're just in twitter dms for like a few months. That's normally how i yeah i remember i remember two years ago. Was it 2019 or 2020? I think you or matt hit me up and we're like hey.

Do you want to do uh? You want to do a podcast with us and i was like i was like yeah. I'm definitely down to do it. I'm like yeah. Of course, but then uh, i think matt has told me not to because i was like a rowdy person and i was just like it definitely kills business yeah because we had the matt and i for those of you guys who don't know what i know most.

You do we had the beyond the pdt podcast uh matt, and i and we i think we had. I think we got up to almost 20 interviews and uh, just a bunch of different uh twitter traders, and it definitely was matt that reached out and um. We ended up, it must be in 2019 because i believe we stopped in the summer 2015 doing those we were just that was. I was still in college, then i was doing internships.

I was kind of back and forth. I hadn't like made that full decision. Like okay, am i going to uh, you know be like a full-time trader. Am i i almost i remember.

I was in colorado working for uh, a larger aerospace company supply chain and there was a i wasn't, making any money trading. It was summer of 2019 right like of course like. Even there was nothing moving, but i was still like i'm done with this. I'm done with this internship, i'm just gon na focus my full time on training.

I didn't end up doing it, but i did end up dropping out of college uh the the next year, and i got very fortunate. You know it was. It was one of those like risk decisions right where i saw the market getting really hot after that covet bottom uh, and i was like yeah this. This could be a once in a lifetime opportunity and i want to make sure i've got my full attention to it and it turned out.

It was a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity turned out good yeah. It turned out really well, i got really lucky uh. Hopefully i don't need that college degree if we keep this uh. If you i'm gon na pull up this spy chart real quick for you guys.

I mean this is a pretty pretty brutal drop today. You know it's wild, you know, you know it's wild man before covid the small cap market was insane. Oh, you know that. That's that's! The wild part people think during covet.

The 2020 2021 market was crazy. Bro. 2018. 2017.

2016. We had a runner dreice, you know that went from four dollars to a hundred and twenty dollars in four or five days i mean blew. People out, like you, want to see like like people, think indo was a runner or a vera was a runner like look, go look at the chart on droice d-r-y-s when in 2016, when trump got elected i mean that thing freaking blew off and we we still. I mean even before 2020 i mean we spi and all these names i mean we still, i mean ever since 2020.

I mean how many names have we really had. I mean dwac, i think of lgbn, maybe um, but those runners are a lot less than what they were yeah yeah like the true black swans like they used to be, i mean we haven't, we haven't seen one. I mean we like again not this year. We have the kodaks, we've got the indos, we've got the lgbns and really spi i'd argue, it's probably the closest thing to a dry style move, but i mean like it was.

It was crazy too, because obviously 2017 we had the bitcoin run. Where i mean it was, it was otherwise. Sarah capps riot mara that were literally went from legitimate penny stocks to like 60 70. I mean that was the the time just multi-day runs that would blow shorts out of the water.

Now there was also less um retail volume back then too. So i mean it was a lot more because i see on twitter all the time talking it's hard, not to agree like you get these stocks that are five million, floats trading 150 million in volume. Doing every day everything they do not the rvs yesterday, it's just they get locked up. I'd have to imagine it's like some kind of big fund controlling it or institutions or insiders, but i don't know the exact reason for it, but man neither um yeah, i'm totally a loss of words.

Every day we wake up in my room, you know do all day every single day we wake up, and it's the same thing over and over and over you'll have a you'll have the main. The main gapper rvsn, like yesterday do 80 million shares from 9 30 to 10, 30., literally 80 million shares, and it did nothing. What did it do? It went up 20 cents. It did nothing and these these stocks.

You know not too long ago before 2020. If you had a a 7 million share, float with 100 million shares in volume, i mean this thing was doubling it, it was almost, it was almost automatic and the game has changed, you know completely, and people don't realize it. No they're and it's like now they're. I have to when i'm taking a trade um.

Obviously you know there is there's always that float rotation aspect, but it was interesting. This was back a few years ago, um. I i can't remember i i want to say it was ducks. He posted like basically a data sheet based on the float rotation and there was like a sweet spot um, and this maybe this was like beginning at 2020, when we started getting absurd volume, but essentially that sweet spot was like under 10x split rotation is but above 2 or 3x float rotation is going to have like your best probability for an actual, but like then you get these ones that are rotating literally.

You know 15 20 times just doing nothing. It just leaves me okay. Is it too crowded? Is there an agenda behind it and lately it seemed like there's an agenda because every one of these has just been getting offering news or um just just been dumping, uh multi-year low volume after it's it's frustrating to watch, but it's i would agree. I mean the game has changed and you know for better or worse right now, the market's obviously uh on this, the small cap markets on the slower side.

Definitely, since really this year we were talking right before the episode you know march april were decent but february january, even really december, we're on the slower slower end and now we're kind of getting back to that in may, um, yeah 100. Agree. Let me uh. Let me pull up so bttx.

You hit today again like take note, despite the spy being down three and a half percent, that's normally uh for me. Personally, that's an indicator in itself when the spy is just down brutally the. I feel like it's a lot harder to find momentum in small caps and we're kind of seeing that even today you know the top percent. Gainer is bttx today, like 43 traded 94 million volume and still only getting a 40 move.

But um talk about your trade. Today, if you want i'd love to, i can uh point out these entry exits. Obviously we had a high of 320s today held that support in the 340s yeah. So today i woke up with like a different like a completely different mindset, uh the past three days.

So last week i mean: let's go back to last week. Last week, banger every single day i had a one dollar, two dollar name: 10 percent, the 20 uh runner every single day and that that's that was really good, a really good week. For me, you know four for four, i didn't trade friday and then this week uh, i came in this week with the same game plan like i'm. Just going to you know, hit a clean hit, a clean win every single day and then monday happened, and then we get the red box move.

Yeah red box wicked up in the morning halted down a dollar and then ramped right back up. You know it went up a couple dollars and it was just a nasty move on monday and that really set the tone for the week like there's themes everywhere right - and this is the theme for this week - it's just this consistent fake out, reclaim. Let's run it right, and this is what all these names are doing i mean if you go to red box monday, s-o-u-n tuesday, oh yeah and then uh yesterday was just everything wicked right, red box again wicked, like literally everything with yesterday and then today, um yeah. I mean extreme frustration there right, you have the low a day break to high a day to support, like here on this week to high a day break to slam to high day break to slam yeah.

So that was monday and i actually hit i hit. I hit that freaking trade. I was up 80 cents and before i could even sell, i was down because it it it was halted down, it went it went down with within. You know a fraction of a second and yeah and we got halted down and then i didn't reentry, i didn't re-answer because it halted down and it was monday.

I took off friday. I was a little bit rusty and i missed that whole move and i was pretty pissed off about it, but anyways. The only clean entry after that, in my opinion, was over in this after this support break happened, but even then, like so frustrating that that same monday that same monday, i hit that flag pattern that afternoon move that you like right there that afternoon. I hit that for a dollar, so i was up a dollar i sold half into it.

What happened after i sold guys slammed right back into a halt and exited me out right in my position again, it was just it was really fun. Monday was crazy. I was like all right man this. This is the theme for the week.

So then tuesday happens. We hit sound for uh two dollars. I think we hit another little scalp. I forgot.

I think it was like ost, i think, for 20 cents and then oh yeah sound for two dollars. I believe was this tuesday on tuesday uh yeah. So so you went did the same thing it halted down. So you see that wick right yeah, and so you went to the same exact move, and this is the theme for the week right, like the big, fake out breakdown and ramp back up.

And you know it's just it's not action that you want to play as long buys trader. As you know any type of trader. This is an action that you want to play. This is this filthy.

You know this. Actually, this is actually that we can't control uh and it's some. It's honestly. It's it's! It's action that you want to avoid.

Now this isn't clean stuff, but anyways i hit so you went because i'm a degenerate hit it for two dollars. There done. I was like all right f, this i'm done anyways seou and dies out that was tuesday, and so with those two days you know it's just not consistent. It's just you know.

I just wanted to settle down. You know yesterday and today i just wanted to settle down with trades and be patient, and now i'm just kind of just taking like one or two trades and being done with it, and today you know yesterday was just i have no real trades off top. My head yesterday, just everything faked out yesterday, was brutal and um. Today you know bttx it hell it.

Just it made nice little fake into 240.. I saw that fake uh, it whipped or pretty early. I was telling everyone in chat today: hey detation, you know, wait for this move to develop, let's see if we get some uh good level holes and it held 240 pretty well, if you guys, if you go scroll back to the last couple of days 240, it Was a good, a good support area um just because it held multi-days right? Did you guys see that it's beautiful support right there, uh 240.? So i saw it fake right, the 240 it held immediately and i wanted to reclaim you know 250 for like a half dollar uh risk level and basically took that half dollar risk. You know two cents and hit it to 290., and that was my play in the 10 10 20.

I mean i'm gon na. Take that all day every single day and um. You know, i know that there's not gon na be a runner now from two dollars to fourteen dollars, like there used to be right, like with these, like two two million share floats, and you know these two million share float with 80 million shares in volume. I know it's not gon na happen right right now, at least and um yeah.

I was telling everyone in chat, you know, let's, let's, let's see if this thing could prove itself and it did, it proved it. It proved the 250 hold and uh. We had a nice trade, i mean sold up in the two sixes. I saw up in the two eighths and i sold the rest into uh 280s 290s.

So that was the trade i missed the whole three dollar plus plus plus move, but once again, i'm not here to hold on to stocks because they haven't proved so that they can hold up right. Prove to me that you can hold up and then i'll i'll. Consider doing some all day long like i was in march and april right march and april, we were having all day holds like veru, and you know some other moves, um, that that brings me to a question that i you know i know, but you know people Who don't know who you are so they know? I i'm a relatively scalpy long, biased trader, i'm still trying to work on those all day holds you do a really good job at adjusting. It seems like based on market conditions, so in this slower market it wasn't like that bryce.

It wasn't like that, though sorry to cut you off, but it wasn't like that man. I was in your position too not too long ago. Um, it's really hard to adapt, but i'm getting really better because i'm putting in long hours and long days now it's not like when i was you know moderating in bulls, on wall street or when i was moderating that as money, you know it's not like. You know i'm putting these little half hour.

You know these little okay, like these like little one-hour days and then bouncing right, i'm here all day and i'm really like focused in here, i'm getting a little older. Now i don't have you know, i don't have uh the four o'clock meeting to get drunk my boys. You know what i mean so, like you know, uh, you know i'm putting in long hours. You know my girlfriend uh.

You know she's working now and like she's long hours too so like i have nothing to do besides stocks right like this is my life now. This is where this is, where, like all day, takes it to the next level right, because i finally like settle down and everything's all settled everything like that. So now, i'm just learning you know it's all about cycles. You know these cycles like i'm getting better and better and better, and you know maybe that short, maybe that short bias account opens up by the end of the year.

You know i might try it again. I did it in 2019, but you know just looking at the data for for those guys. I talked to a lot of good uh short bias, trailers from puerto rico. You know all those guys moved down to puerto rico, and one of my one of my good friends took my course, and you know, he's a really successful short buyer's trader.

He just wanted to see what i did and uh you know, i'm considering it man the data's there uh for those guys too. So you know i'm just trying to learn every single day. Man just got ta, learn, learn, learn, learn, learn, learn, learn it just never ends man. That's why i love training just never ends just keep learning and learning and learning and learning you never you're.

Never gon na reach the top well and that's the beautiful part right. It's so it is so cyclical. I mean yeah, i've been i've been trading uh nice. I got started back in 2017, so coming up on five years, but again you know.

For for me. I don't know how you were when you started. You had that it sounds like you caught that bug instantly i was. I was like two and a half years, just kind of back and forth, but it was great that i got to see those different market conditions and really how it's changed since then, uh and that's what trading is right.

It's like learning those different cycles. There is never a i am the best, because as soon as you get i mean we saw so many traders in 2020 2021 that made all this money now blew up because they were just completely yolo huddling and that doesn't work anymore. Well, here's here's another aspect of of twitter, i mean and trading today, there's data i mean when we when we first when i first started trading i had i had no indicators. I had no uh uh volume forecast indicator.

I had nothing, it was just you know. Just trying to look for a pattern and see if it worked or not, you know there was no. There was no 70 small caps fade from open. You know the open right like these people.

Have you have this data today and you know um. It just makes it so much better. Do you think there's like for us overload event? Sometimes, though, do you think there's sometimes an uploaded data where it essentially, i think people find that and that's what changes the markets eventually or essentially or uh, or at least weighs into it uh yeah. It's i mean it's a tough question because i mean i'd have to imagine right.

Like short shorting i mean i was going through data a couple months ago and um just historical data and based on the the back testing. I ran shorting and opening gapper and i know there were runners but shorting, an opening gapper with a risk on pre-market high from literally like two years, 2018 2019 massive edge massive edge, and then, though, when so many people catch on to that right and they start Getting squeezed out and they they fail to change those rules that leads to those massive squeezes that we saw um again go really primarily going into i'd, say from you know, april may of 2020 is when we started seeing the real signs of life and then ramping Up into the end, where we kind of found that peak i'd say of like craziness in january february 2021, not to say there weren't runners anymore, but i do know a lot of shorts. Who became successful during that summer, uh spring summer, 2021. Again, because even we've had massive range, both sides, but it always interests me, you know, is there an overload of data? Sometimes i don't know i i don't know what the answer to that is but see.

I didn't have any of this data until recently. You know it. This is really just it's. It's brand new.

I mean like this data. I mean, unless people had this years ago, that i wasn't aware of it, but the reason why i'm a long, biased chair it's not because of data, it's just because i was good at doing what i do and if it's not broken like, i was taught like. If it ain't broke, don't fix it right. So this is one of the reasons why i'm along by a trader, if i tried to do the whole shorting thing in 2019, it didn't work, didn't work for me, but i didn't have that data that's out today and you know maybe i'll start getting back into It i'll open up another account and they're.

Even tracking um broker uh locate fees now yeah this guy day trading zoo on twitter. I don't know if you know who he is this guy just drops date. I mean this guy's, a genius. You know i love people like him who just dropped free info all day every day on twitter and this guy is tracking locates on every single broker.

Right now, like center point, cobra everything and he's tracking, you know locates, and you know i'm gon na look at this data that he's posting and i'm gon na find the best broker for locate fees and stuff like that and um yeah we're gon na. I'm definitely gon na give it another another go within, maybe this year or next year, because um there's a lot of downtime right now for a long, biased. Guys like me like, if we go we're going into another slow cycle right now, i don't see any themes. Popping up anytime soon and uh, you know i'll start looking into uh, maybe trying to get a different strat going, because i mean there's so much data on the other side.

Right now that you know it. Might it's definitely something to look. You know worth looking into yeah. I think this is kind of a cool question, then, for someone like you, who's been long, biased for basically 10 years right i mean, i know you said you went through.

You did short a little bit 2019 and whatnot, but and most of your you know, data was discretionary like doing what works doing what works. It was just by trial and error. You weren't going through these all these spreadsheets. You weren't doing all this and that if you decide to go short bias, how are you going to create a strategy around that? Is it going to be just based on what you see? Is it going to be more hard data based? You know what what are your, i think i think going back.

That would probably be more hard database. I mean it's there right all the data's there, for you know shorting small caps, it's all there. So there's nothing. I i i really have to do.

I you know, i see it, you know i and the good part about being a long, biased, guy and understanding hey what stock can explode? I see what's going to explode, you know i can see it. You know a lot of guys. They always add that that's their problem. You know these short bias, guys who end up blowing up.

They always add that in to where we're going along right and your positions are always always similar to mine, where we're going along they're, always adding a heading and adding you know if we can just avoid those plays, i mean how? How can we not win on that side right, no agreed just knowing when to stop out versus? Oh it's up to you, it's not too much. That's, i think. That's probably one of the biggest beauties of starting off as a long bias trader is generally it's. If i, if i'm not, there are going to be times i'm not confident too long, but in the same breath i'm just looking at that chart and like this is not a short either, because it's yeah it could break down, but like man, this is.

This. Has some wild potential yeah? I might take some smaller size, wider, wrist kind of thing. For those supernovas, i mean those black swans they're generally, they give you exit signs if you're not ad. As a short, you know what i mean, if that's not your mentality, but no i like it, that's i've in fact, as it stands, i actually have a current small short position that i want to check in on right now.

Um beautiful is it that play that you told me before and ktx or whatever yeah i shorted into the spike uh with starter size on tuesday. It's just. This is just one of those charts. It's a higher float stock.

That's had that big volume day and just consolidation to me. It just felt like some kind of liquidity trap. I thought they're gon na. Ideally i wanted them to break it out.

I wanted them to break it out to get some volume to sell into where i was gon na add actual size, but i literally had a a 50 starter risk because my size was so small and uh i've. I've done some back testing on these. These charts of the float range, and i mean the win percentage - is like 82 percent um with depends with a wide risk. Again i was hoping for a fake breakout, but so far so good.

I see a lot of these start to try to. They. Don't fill that gap completely, but i'm definitely looking for a re-test like 14 in the next few days and small enough size now where i can actually absolutely just risk that 20 and add into it. So, oh i'm not even pulling that up.

Whoops there we go. I meant to have that chart up yeah yeah uh, but anyway, no i'm definitely in the same same spot, where, like you, got to adapt with what works in the market and uh right now. I think i think shorting's a great great thing to be learning to get gather data on and uh. Definitely the only problem i'm gon na have is flipping back and forth.

I think that's. That was the issue i had in 2019 and that's probably going to be the issue, i'm a little bit more mature now in the game, so i mean every year you get better. I mean even if you're red you're, seeing things over and over and over you're. Just getting better and i feel like now, you know definitely on a short side again.

If i give it another go, you have a decade worth of experience under your belt, you've seen 10 years worth of charts, and i was the same problem i tried. I did open a shorting account uh like fall of last year, and at first i was like pretty pretty disciplined with it like. I was very, very good at sticking to a few and then all of a sudden i just got trigger happy with it got so trigger happy gave back all of my short gains and i was like okay, that's the last way to understand trying this. It's not.

That sounds very similar to me. Yeah, it's because again it's like it's. There are very easy shorts right, like shorting. Small caps has a very large statistical edge, but it's as soon as you get trigger happy then you're, like okay, that short didn't work.

Long short long short, i just kept going back and forth and i literally felt like i was brand new again. I was like this is not a good feeling yeah. Well, that's one of the reasons why i haven't jumped the gun again because i don't want to relearn. You know relearning sucks, you know i'm getting a little bit older.

Now, it's like. Why am i re-learning? You know when i could just do what i do and maybe just go bigger. I mean you're. Definitely one of the um one of the one of the veterans, i'd say in the game.

You know you're up there in terms of the length of your trading. Do you have like plans just basically trade until you die, or do you want to get out of the game sometime at some point in the future? I don't know not there, yeah, hey, no, that's great. I mean 10 years and like you're still going straight. You're still going real strong, i love it um.

Well, ten years was the day i walked into a prop. It wasn't the day i started. You know i opened up a live account. You know i waited a couple years after that, to you know, learn a bit and then 2014 2015 was really when i started playing with some money and otc games and just banking on the otc market.

The 24 wall street baby yeah that 2014 otc market was wild. Yeah uh, that's that's. When i started that's when i started you know, i signed up for a bunch of a bunch of subs and nothing worked out and in all senate i found a group of guys called the wolf pack on twitter, jason, spada4 and all these um uh. These degenerate otc gamblers and i was just making money.

I was going, you know. Fifty thousand, you know fifty thousand share size on a point: zero, zero, zero uh one stock and i'd wake up next day. I'd be up. Ten thousand percent.

I was like, oh my god, like what was going on here and it was like every day it was nuts. Those overnight gaps were just i mean they. They it was, it was incredible, it is insane and it was i mean there was i'd, have to imagine again. I wasn't even i was still in high school.

I was almost like junior high back then i had no no thought of anything in market wise back. Then, but i mean i'd have to imagine, the game was just drastically different back then i mean there was back then maybe 2014 you're still having some like real legitimate otc pumping dumps right, yeah, 2014 and some real pump and dumps. I mean i mean you mentioned one the other week, uh er bb. I know that's our laughing men, oh, when you mentioned the yard, did you pump and dump was it that was uh? That was a marijuana vending machine.

It was so. This was a round back. Yeah, oh 2014., yeah wow, that was a that was a marijuana. Oh, that was probably that name that was probably a misprint there, but i mean basically going from 50 50 cents to 56 no way that was every day.

Oh, my god, it was literally everything. There was volume yeah holy crap, so this was this was you know shout out to tim sykes man, because i was going along all these names and there was a guy named tim sykes. This is how you know i. I figured all this out like really early early on.

This is how i kept my money. There's a guy named tim sykes tweeting, you know screw you wolf pack, i'm going short on all these names, i'm like who's. This right, like i was, like you, know some guy, but he was right. You know he was like you know this millionaire going short right, so i started looking into it all right start and then and nate was the same thing.

You know nate uh, nate, uh, yeah, michelle yeah and um. You know he was another one on twitter again bashed by by logs the typical. You know the bashers and you know the typical twitter were from shorts and longs, and you know i started realizing like this. Is like a freaking cult, you know like all these stocks, like it's cold, so i sold i sold everything.

I took my money on all these names and i made money and now and that's how i started i made money. I i asked nate: hey: should i pay my college student loans off and he said no, i'm an idiot he's literally like i was like a random dm and he called me an idiot i'll. Never forget that and um yeah. That's how i really started and i started looking at the small caps and you know trying to figure out uh.

You know flag patterns and different type of patterns, and that's i started looking at technical analysis and that's that now, i'm here a couple years later, you know that that's how it really started. You know those those type of names, it's pretty crazy, the wild ride yeah. I mean i can't stop looking at this chart. I mean, because you know we yeah, we were talking all those cars broke.

That's what i'm saying like we were talking. I can't remember if this was before we started recording. I don't think it was. I mean, like you, know the 20.

You know 2016. 17. 18. Really in the beginning of 2018, when the otc market really heated up, i mean you were getting unheard of multi-day moves that make some of the 2020 moves.

Literally look like jokes. I mean that's wrong. That's that's what i'm saying like when's the last: that's from stock at 50 cents go to 60 or 50, call it 60 for fun. Like i, i can't i really can't think of a chart.

That's ever done that from when i've traded. We have ones that go from we've had ones. I say: you'll go from three or four dollars up to fifty sixty dollars. Yeah sure you've had even the oh.

What was the gls i um? I got done, don't bring that one up i have to. I have to because i actually, this was my first parabolic short ever um gls. I was my my probably my biggest miss in my career jealous. I had a lot of shares into that and i i nailed that move and i sold for like a 30 cent game and it went up 100 after i sold a hundred dollars.

It went up after i sold. That would have been my biggest winner. Oh, my god, that's so you were selling down like down here i for uh. If you pull the chart up i'll, be able to see what it was december 2019 before 24.

december 12th was, i think glsi was 12. 9. 20. 20..

Oh i'm not even looking at the challenges: yeah, maybe yeah. Maybe it was 20 yeah. It was 20 20 yeah because acy well, the next ace acy went the next day and guess who hit acy 500. You hit that one yep that was going to say.

I was going to ask: was that your best trade ever yeah, so glsi was my biggest regret and then acy came. I think a couple days later or a week or a week later and you know yeah, did they do a ticker change? Did they pretty? Well? I don't know i have no idea, no, probably since that trade acy isn't coming up. I wonder if they uh oh, they did. I do believe that something did happen with aci yeah.

I do think they did a taker change, because i remember watching that there were. There was news going into that. It was like running up again. I was like huh - maybe i'll swing along this one and i'm glad i didn't because i ended up just dumping but yeah these yeah, but like again that that even still yeah, that's crazy.

That's a wild one! Um yeah! I see why was one of my biggest trades ever after that yeah. I remember you showing me that that's a wild chart that you had yeah. You had like a five dollar an hour, yeah six yeah six, a six. It was a 606 average with a six dollar risk and i wrote it up all the way to thirty three dollars.

Everyone and their mother were short on that trade. I never understood it. I never understood why everyone was short on this trade because that was like you know when things were obviously working. You know, like the small cap game was, was pretty fun um.

That's when a million a million share float, you know, with 100 million shares of volume. Would make these type of moves and you know at that point - i never understood why people were shorting at that at that spot, and you know i saw i remember i remember people blowing up that day, but there i was, you know owning a six dollar average Delivery, the only person on twitter with a six dollar average, a thirty three dollar stock that was uh. That was the day of the micro floats. You know what i mean like those are all i i miss it one day i have faith.

It'll come back, but i mean i hope, yeah. You know i. I hope it does come back for everybody. I mean shorts and longs yeah.

No, we can all benefit from it right. I mean obviously the more shorts that blow up the better for us, but uh. You know with those over extensions you're gon na get shorts that absolutely crush it too. So i know we're all keeping our fingers crossed for some small cap volatility, but you know speaking, i guess, of the the state.

I think this would be a fun way to transition. It's speaking of the uh, the state of basically the the overall, the small cap market, just the changing market. I know that you and i have some pretty similar ideas about the real estate market, which i would also argue is kind of overextended um, and this is something i wanted to talk about today, because it's it seems relatively uh prevalent as i was actually watching. A really interesting video this morning, like would people actually like it if the housing market dropped, because everyone's like i want to buy a house, i want to buy a house, but in the same breath you're just i mean that that feeling of want to buy a House, no one actually ends up buying the dip or they buy it way too early um and then you're gon na just have homeowners that are scared to sell right, because the basically the concept was these housing prices.

Let's, let's say it's like a. I think here in austin, where i live, i want to say the median or mean value of a home is either 650 000 or 800 thousand dollars. I can't remember that figure, but let's right you're, if you're scared to sell that the reason homeowners are scared to sell is because then they have to go. If they need summer to live, they have to go, buy a house somewhere which is going to be either the same price or more than they just sold it for right.

Yeah yeah, my cousin, just my cousin larry, just went through this. He sold his house for like 80 000 more than what he was asking, which was a ridiculous price anyways, and then he has nowhere to you can't find it. You can't find any place you you have to pay a rent, that's up 30 year-over-year or you know. No literally, my my apartment, just uh, just increased rent prices 25 and i was like that is brutal.

What in florida, where i'm from in orlando? If you look at places in florida i mean house, prices, went crazy and then rental prices went up 30 plus percent. I think it's the number three on uh. I think it's number three on a list of year-over-year rent averages that went up. I think it's like uh.

I think it's uh somewhere in arizona, las vegas and then orlando and people all these places are empty, they're all empty they're, moving they're moving yeah, i mean, if you look at any any like real nice like luxury type of place. I know in orlando they're all empty right. Now, it's it's wild, like everyone's moving out of orlando. Can you believe that everyone's moving out of florida right now people are moving out of orlando, like the the u.s census uh from last year, 2021, only 8 000 people moved to orlando last year.

It's crazy! It's it's wild like in florida, it's supposed to be where we go for, like cheaper prices, um, but it's wild man. Something awesome is terrible. I feel bad for people uh, you guys are getting crushed with those property taxes and in austin people are getting crushed property taxes right now, because what happened in austin well - and it's happening everywhere - that's like the the inverse here. Where i mean we, we have so many people moving here and that's why our our our real estate value is just it's unfathomable, um and it sucks for something like i.

First of all, i almost don't want to buy a house because of the property tax problem. Right, i think uh i there. I don't know the percentage off the top of my head here, but i mean it's yeah, it's insane. It checks this because they have to make it somewhere.

There's no state income tax um, they hammer the property yeah um, i mean before we get into this she's like definitely warn people that we're not professionals on the real estate market, we're small cats, we're small cat professionals uh, but yeah um real estate yeah. I don't know i'm not gon na lie, i just go by the the limited data i see, um and and just like. Looking at my eyes, you know i mean i think, that's a very undervalued, um or under yeah appreciated. It's true.

You know you can see it right, like yeah you're, not gon na know every exact figure um. But what you see is huge, and i mean what i see every day on the way to work or on the way downtown or what i see traffic that every month is getting worse and getting worse, and i also see no houses being built right now. Here. Um - and i you know i see - and the apartment situation here is insane because the opposite side what's happening in orlando, they don't care like you, don't negotiate rent prices here, because they will fill that they'll fill your apartment tomorrow, it's insane yeah, and so they can Afford to do this? Well, here's the thing in florida.

I don't know if it's like this in texas - i i know more florida data, obviously um, but in florida it's a write-off. If you don't fill that apartment, it's a write-off. These guys don't care! That's why they probably don't negotiate because um it's a write-off. You know these guys can keep.

You know these uh these these these firms they can keep 40 40 units available and just write it off at the end of the year. You know that's why they don't care about negotiating. I read into that a little bit too. It's pretty funny.

That's interesting, but yeah florida florida's, interesting yeah. I i think a lot of places around the city like or around orlando, like kissimmee area. I think a lot of like the west coast areas are just gon na get crushed. I mean 30 40.

You know we're going to see it because i mean even we're. I was looking to move to destin. I was looking to buy a place in destin last year and you know i lived by my buddy kunal and the market in destin. I mean we're talking like people literally flipping houses for 100 in six months like where did it come from? You know i was looking at apartments i'll, never forget this.

Like 2015, oh it's 2016. I was looking for uh to buy a condo by canal, for, like 75 million came like 75 80 000, like a two bedroom, two bathroom those those places are like. Six hundred thousand dollars now it's it's wild, it's wild man, and it's just you know it. I don't know, i don't even know if they're real people buying it's like it's like the market makers of the real estate market.

It really is, you know, every three months, every three months, these houses are getting flip. Flip flip, flip flip. These are real people or these like the market makers of the real estate market, blackrock, that's wild. It's it's something definitely to look look into, and you know if you're looking, you know.

Definitely if you're looking into uh yeah, if you're looking into you, know buying a property right now, especially your rates uh rates going, and you know they were still at like all-time high prices. You know the prices haven't shifted yet at all and the rates keep going up. I mean where's the bubble, you know when does it pop? You know. I'd definitely be aware of buying in particular.

Right now i mean last year, maybe you're, probably safer two years ago. Definitely safe, but it's definitely got a cushion if you bought some two years ago. Well - and i know we're talking about a big part of your reasoning, for that is the supply right. I mean at some point: the supply is going to catch up yeah.

So if you looked at so i talked to you about this in like february, about permits right new bills and permits i so i look at new build permits all the time in um in florida and um. There's areas too like in in arizona new new builds. I mean were higher than what they were at the top at the peak of 2008. yeah yeah.

Well, i was um. I was down in florida, oh man uh just about a month ago, very beginning of april, and that was what shocked me the most. Because again i live in this, this this bubble in austin. Where i see everything going on here and then i went down, i was in uh.

I was basically i was in naples, then i drove to miami. Then i drove up to tampa and started off in orlando, so i kind of got all the uh all the the big ones. Well, not naples, but you get the point um i as soon as i got to tampa, i was shocked at how many houses were being built. I mean everywhere you could not drive more than a minute without seeing a new house being built and it's probably because of the permits it has to.

I mean yeah, so they're able to do that. My girlfriend i, when we were moving to florida and we uh we visited orlando a couple times and we were looking at houses and every time we were looking at new builds to build uh built a new house and every single time we went to a place For uh, you know to get some paperwork done or you know get get you know uh. You know some builds whatever prices um sold out instantly sold out, sold out, sold out sold out. So it's not people buying these houses.

If you look at the data for you, know uh, i get all my data off of redfin and zillow. There's this guy on youtube, he's a really good youtuber. It's reventure, consulting uh he's super negative on the housing market. Either he's super negative, but i i love.

I love his like his pizzazz, like it's so funny um and i think he lives in austin too and um yeah, i'm pretty sure he lives in or lived in, texas or austin. I think that's what he said and um he brings out all the data. So it's like, i don't have to research it myself and he just goes off of data off of redfin and if you look at like 9 million homes in florida, like 2 million are owned by investment firms yeah, not even people like two million houses is, is It's almost like a pump and dump down here uh down in florida. You know so i can't find the.

I don't think i saved this one, because i did have some data coming into this, that i was going to kind of go off of and i don't yeah. I don't. I can't remember what i did with that. I must not have dropped it in this link that i had, but i believe 2020 or 2021 90 billion worth of us.

Real estate was purchased by foreign investors like investors. These aren't retail. This isn't retail. This is foreign.

This is their safe haven, 90 billion dollars worth right like i, i don't know what the total real estate market is in the uh and the wild part is - and i know because i know it's not probably all that much but um that was still lower technically Than inside investment, uh like within the united states investment groups in the united states, but foreign investors, who literally are not here, they're just buying it as an investment, they don't see it, they don't they're. Never it's just wild to me and so like at some point and that that's kind of the the research that i had done and full disclosure what i'm about to start talking about. On my end, i did find on a very interesting post on reddit. That being said, i did go through and confirm the data, because i was curious because obviously you can make up whatever you want.

Uh the length of the post is his opinion based on the data, but the data was all accurate and, i think, probably one of the most interesting ones. I was showing you right before. I actually can pull this up. Let's see i'll get this time.

I'll actually remember to get my there, we go look at that um. Basically, so cmbs is a commercial mortgage-backed securities. So not not retail. This is commercial buying um, but essentially the issuing of uh.

These cmbs went to 109 billion dollars and 95 increase from 20, like let's be honest right when you're talking numbers that big in the course of one year one year. Is that not a bubble in itself? And then it goes on to say highest level: record 2007, which was 230 billion and so bro, if you go, if you start to cut you off back to your data, everything leads up to 2007 2008. It's the same thing: yeah and the best every every single yeah go ahead. Yeah every single stat when it comes to permit, builds when it comes to this every single number, everything everything every time i have to go back to at these levels.

It's always 2008. 2007. 2008 2007.: it's uh we're higher than and permits were hired in 2008. In some places i mean places.

Some places are gon na get flooded with inventory and no one's going to buy, because these rates are now a little bit higher. I mean they're still historically low because yeah they're still kind of low uh, but you know some of these places they're going to get they're going to get crushed because this inventory is all going to come in later this year. It's all it's all! Adding up october november get ready, because i mean right now: the stock market is a little bit on on on the cliff. You know, that's that's the first thing they go and then the house is next right and the biggest difference, and i i would say like besides the supply issue right now, there's is still a lack of supply, but i'd say the best thing that everyone, the biggest Difference this time around right is last recession.

The 2007 to 2008 was because the banks - essentially over i mean everyone - was getting loans. Everyone was getting loans like yeah, and but it was all retail right, all retail. This was all the cms just or not uh, whatever. Oh man wow, i'm looking really really smart right now, but it was all it was all retail and now again going back here.

This is all commercial um and that's let's, let's be honest, how absolutely leveraged are all of these um. When you have more money, it is instantly easier to get more leverage like, let's just put that out there more reputation, but let's also like not forget a year ago, almost probably almost to the month what did uh? What did we see in china happen? Evergrand? Does that ring about funny how no one has talked about that recently right, but they are still that was another. Oh man can i find it um. I don't think i can um it's it's hold on it's in this picture.

I'm gon na find it um, but basically right like they still have not defaulted their banks. Okay, here it is um. I'm gon na just read it off here. So again this part, i haven't fact checked, but in fact i'll just pull it up over here.