Hey everyone welcome back to another market, open, live stream, we've got some more red today and today we have red because of retail sales, indicating a pullback in spending. Broad base declined too out of uh 13 categories, plus 10 declined expectation was for a 0.1 decline in retail sales. However, we got a 1.9 percent decline which uh, in my opinion, it sets us up for a quite interestingness uh in that a that uh that sends a signal to businesses. Hey can't keep raising those prices because, as we have more inflation at some point, people stop spending uh and b.

That's probably going to lead to more desires for advertising uh to make sure that businesses can uh glean whatever whatever they can or gather, whatever kind of profits or money they can, but it's unfortunately uh in the short term going to be something that makes the market A little sad uh, let's take a look at exactly which categories uh, but also look at the chart here, because we had a decline last december as well. So here's uh here's our char the month of our month, figure uh or the black ones here. Excuse me uh, and so in uh october of last year, i'm sorry october of 2020. We had a 0.1 percent decline.

We had a 0.14 decline in uh november and a 1 decline in december of 2020 uh and we just got the numbers for december of 2021. We saw a negative 1.9 percent decline. What's actually really interesting is, if you exclude auto sales, which auto sales also declined in uh december uh. If you excluded auto sales uh, you actually had a uh.

You had more of a decline, so that means you had more of a decline in the other categories. Uh see if you're over here you'll actually see if we uh. If we exclude autos here, you have less of a decline. Let's say in a november of 2020., you do tend to get a seasonal pullback in december for autos we did have a little bit more of a pullback this year than expected, as well in auto sales, but also possibly good, because there's been the insane amount of Inflation for vehicles uh - let's see where are the categories categories categories i want to see which there were three categories.

There were three categories that did well uh, let uh led by non-store retailers, which includes recon ecommerce. Those sales plummeted, 8.7 percent from a month earlier. So e-commerce dropped 8.7 from november department store receipts decreased, seven percent yikes sales at furniture stores, sporting goods and electronic stores also spell receipts at restaurants and bars. The report's only service oriented category dropped point eight percent.

So what went up motor vehicle sales declined? Uh? Let's see here fewer uh fewer vehicles on lots for people to choose from where are the actual increases? They didn't tell us about the increases. Okay, i'll go right to the commerce department. If they don't, i got ta tell you the upside ones, uh. They didn't.

Okay, fine, then that's funny commerce, department or retail sales yeah, so they're 13 categories and three of them were positive, so full publication. Here we go okay, where are the categories we'll find them uh anyway? Oh here we go okay december december. Well, we're gon na give us a percentage here there we go. Okay, okay! Here we go so these are the categories.

Where are the positive ones? There's so much negative uh? Well, that's all i see is negative, so never mind. Oh there we go: okay, building materials, building materials, uh went up 0.9, so building material sales did uh didn't have as much of a decline uh. I wonder if that's almost like omicron people staying at home again and buying stuff at uh like home depot or lowe's uh kind of like they did during delta. You've got 0.5 in health and personal care stores and miscellaneous stores were 1.8 percent to the upside.

But uh what what the heck is a miscellaneous store? What like what is that like? Would that be like a dollar store or something see, if there's a definition for this, of course, there's not okay, uh anyway, all right, fine, then so uh, otherwise non-store retailers uh. So online eight point: seven percent decline, cheese, food and service point: eight clothing, 3.1, sporting goods, 4.3 furniture, 5.5 for furniture, nice, solid declines; uh, let's see uh, let's go to weeble and take a look at some pain. So this morning we fell down to about 41 787 on btc, slowly recovering from uh this low. Let's also look at the indices here, so not so good on retail sales.

Uh we've got all of the futures, wow they're, almost all equal, that's kind of cool. You rarely see that that they're all performing approximately the same, all of them down about 0.75 percent bond yields relatively stable 1.71. But again, today, we've got fud over retail sales, not just bonds going up all right fine. So what do we have? Jp morgan see uh, everybody thought jp.

Morgan was gon na, be the safe one. Jp morgan down 4.45 um did i'm pretty sure jp morgan just reported so hold on a second here. I want to see jpm's earnings and it's down 4.45. So thus is very interesting.

I wonder if they fell on uh trading or loans or both, because i still think loans are coming in weak all right here we go jp, morgan earnings. Okay. What do we have? So? Oh there's so much okay. Here it is okay: jp morgan revenue comes in at 29.3 billion dollars, uh fourth quarter adjusted rev was 30.35, the estimate was 30.01, so they actually beat on rev assets under management up 15 book value at 88.

Let's see where do we have where's the pain, so trading revenue, yep trading revenue come came in lower than expected, uh 3.33 billion expected, i'm sorry, 3.3 billion actually received. 3.42 was the expectation, so you had a miss on trading uh investment, but but investment banking revenue. Actually came in higher 3.21 versus 3.08 and um, let's see q4 average loans up six percent average deposits up seven percent okay, uh charge offs came in way less than expected, which is good. Only 550 mil set aside for charge offs versus the 745 expected earnings per share came in at a beat three point: three three dollars versus 2.99, but it seems actually not bad uh.

I i mean, maybe because maybe uh one of the things i think the market might be complaining about. Is they so remember the beginning of the pandemic, the banks? They took uh credit allowances, which is basically uh like hey we're going into a pandemic, slash recession. We think we might lose two billion dollars on credit cards, let's say as people default on them uh, and so they write off 2.2 billion. Let's say they write off 2 billion as an expense.

Well, they haven't been needing to actually take all of those expenses. So what do they do in a quarter like this? They actually gave themselves 1.21 billion dollars of income back and when they give this 1.2 billion dollars of money back it kind of pumps up their earnings. A little bit makes them seem like they made some more money. That would be the only indication i see here of why the market might be frustrated, because otherwise jpmorgan remains uh optimistic on u.s growth, lack of vehicle supply slowed originations for vehicles overall seems relatively upbeat here.

What about? If we do have a forecast here? Um, jp morgan sees higher rates and loan growth contributing to 2022 net interest growth in 2022. Jp morgan sees card normalization. Okay. What else here yeah not much else? That's super exciting.

We could look at uh. Sometimes this is fun. Watch this i'll show you investor relations. We grab this download really quick and we'll put this up.

They give you the jp morgan slide decks, usually not that bad. I generally hate slide decks because i feel like they're, just a sales pitch, but the jpm1 can tell you a little bit about the econ. All right here we go uh all right. So, let's see here, let's try to scroll to some of the more interesting things.

Okay, so here we go q4 consumer allowance for credit losses yeah. This is where, where they took uh, where they took some income on credit losses, that makes sense less defaults is a good thing. I want to see if i could get credit card spending out of this, because that's going to help us understand a little bit with the uh retail spending as well. Here i mean look at this debit and credit card sales volume was actually the highest in q4.

At jpmorgan, so even though we had this overall negative number on retail sales, data, jp morgan actually crushed it with debit and credit card sales, volume, uh debit and credit card sales volume up 26 percent. They wrote here and then they also have cash uh in people's accounts. Where do we get that? Let's see a cal like average account balance? That's what i would really like to get balances balance sheet credit card activity returning to 2019 levels. That's quite interesting! All right! Well, we'll have to find it hmm credit card.

Average balance has actually gone to about 148, that's down from q419 a little up from q4 2020.. I don't know why why this one's falling? It actually doesn't seem that bad uh. It seems very good retail customer. Okay.

This is just more bragging about their company. That's fine! Okay! So this is the end of this where's uh. Let me see here financial outlook, 2022 outlook, page 15.. Where is it i'm? On page 15.? Oh here we go page 15..

All right here we go so this is interesting and then we got the bell coming up already, despite short-term headwinds. 17 uh. Oh, i haven't heard this one return on total computer. What is this return? On average, tangible, common shareholders? Equity, oh wow, okay, okay, so uh they're, expecting a 17 return on total common shareholder equity.

It's a mouthful but anyway uh tailwinds, steeper curve and favorable reprice uh. Let's see markets wallets headwinds, continued low rate environment as a headwind uh. This is an interesting way that they're describing this because for banks, the lower rates mean less income on loans right, so they see that as a headwind for themselves. Hmm inflationary pressures on expenses they're still expecting inflationary pressures, uh 2021 to 2022 central case modestly.

Higher rates loan growth, including card revolving balances - i believe this i do believe people are going to take out more loans, and this is why i've liked a firm, because i do think people are going to be borrowing a lot more in 2022, along with advertising expense Growth pre-pandemic normalization and inflationary pressures yeah. Actually a couple couple mentions here of still expecting inflationary pressures to continue in 2022. No, that's interesting! That's good! It's always good to see what the banks are thinking, okay and then this is just bragging about their apps and stuff. Like that, whatever okay cool, let's see what we got here, is there any green, we'll start over here las vegas sands wind resorts, mgm.

We must have had a really nice positive report out of here. We could check that in a moment it is the beginning of earnings season which is kind of fun uh, so we'll get to see some excitement in some parts of the market. Hopefully all parts. Hopefully everything gets lifted on earnings, but uh you never know uh.

Yes, gosh jp morgan down four point: three percent: all right: let's listen to the bell and we'll come right back to stocks. Yeah! Well we're real-time exchange here at big board, robinson capital. Celebrating the recent listing of the robinson alternative yield wow. That is really red.

That is uh that is so red the and it's actually just want to live a little more. Oh there we go all right. Well, there's your spy for you, nice and red all right. Let's go see with how the spy is opening.

Let's go to the one minute: okay, this hasn't decided, which way it wants to go yet no problem, let's see how about tesla and it's cyber truck drama, removing mention of their cyber truck from their uh uh from their website for 2022. uh. What's it's worth noting, though they've talked about this in their earnings calls this isn't too much of a surprise to me. They mentioned that uh, it's going to be much more likely a 2023 event, so i think it's kind of funny when the market uh gets so so caught up in uh in announcements that were kind of already made.

But then they become a little bit more official and then there was more drama around it like somebody earlier today is like. I saw a twitter they're like elon musk. You need to have a pr department, it's not fair. Shareholders are getting crushed and i'm like my goodness, how long have you been investing a little baby like the market goes down.

That happens you are not guaranteed see. I think what the thing is. People make investments and they think i'm guaranteed to make money. It's not true, like investing does not mean you were guaranteed to make money uh, and so i think when people know that they become a little bit more accustomed to it's okay, to go through red cycles.

You know i last year uh, and this is always, i think, a really good, a good reference point is i had two million dollars in options on tesla. That became one million dollars in options uh. In other words, i lost 50. I lost a million dollars in those tesla options.

Now i held them down and handed those things they were long enough to where the theta decay was bad, but it wasn't too bad it was it was. I was willing to wait be for the bet that i made uh and i'm glad i did because i out of the eight options that i had, i pulled a six figure profit out of each of them, so probably ended up with somewhere right around uh. A million dollars in a gain rather than a million dollars in a loss, but i had to sit through that loss for gosh. That was sitting in my my weeble, probably from may no from april to october.

So six months you know it's it's painful, sometimes uh and uh. You know it doesn't even have to it doesn't even have to recover after six months. It's a thing. So now it did fortunately but uh yeah anyway, uh wow, jp morgan, i mean so many people have been flocking to jp morgan to because they see it as a safe play and and look at this there's there's no loyalty in this market at all.

Just nobody cares uh, it's quite remarkable all right! Well, let's see here uh. How are things behaving on open here? That's uh! I mostly want to see if the market is going to keep going red today, stokes going up seven uh, ten percent on tesla. Finally, accepting uh doge for products on their store, their merchandise store. Let me uh look at las vegas fans quickly.

It was either sans or win who reported today, let's find out earnings, calendar jpm, blackrock, wells, fargo city. Oh, i actually don't see that las vegas or these others reported. Maybe there's some news out of macau or something. Let me see when we will figure it out.

Individual company news all right, las vegas sands jumps the most in 2011. Aha, macau proposes new rules, see it is macau news. I knew it yeah. Well, i thought it was earnings first, but when i didn't, when it wasn't earnings, i thought there was gon na be something in my cow, so shares of u.s casino operators with exposure to macau rose in pre-market trading after the chinese gambling enclave released new draft laws That would tighten rules for u.s owned casinos in the city.

Las vegas sands rose 10 percent of pre-market trading, while wind rose 7.8. The draft law would cut the tenure for new casino licenses in half and require operations to align with chinese national security needs, but wouldn't reduce the number of licenses in the lucrative gaming hub. An earlier proposal triggered a sell-off amid fears of a crackdown that would reduce the number of casinos allowed to operate in the cities or in the city. All right, that's exciting, for the operators.

You know that is one thing. I've noticed is that a lot of the recovery stocks have done well, except for win and uh and and so finally you're getting this this lifting of the anchor. I think it's still frustrating that there are all these uh extra uh rules, but uh uh. You know this is this is good news in uh in the casino world overall, because they don't want to lose more licenses uh.

I do think it'll be interesting, though i think there's probably possibly a little too much euphoria coming into the casinos, because they're still going to have to deal with like they said the new chinese security rules uh and the other conforming rules i mean. Maybe it's just nature of the business, though, at this point oh well, cheers to green. Only casinos, all right, uh dwack, is up about two percent wells fargo, two percent sheep 3.9. Let's see uh is the red.

Oh lucid. Let's see lucid here, uh some weenie baby. Yesterday, in the in the comments section is like yeah like when is kevin always got ta talk about shorting, lucid, we just short something else. It's like chill that f out the reason and i've made this so i feel like i'm so transparent a i don't - have any shorts on lucid right now, b, uh.

The reason i talk about lucid is because it's a company that i feel is most likely to provide the worst news regarding its its deliveries. I don't believe the other companies that i either invest in or don't invest in are going to report as bad of news. Uh but anyway it's rotating back up. I do hope we get a nice little, even if it's short a nice little euphoric rally would be really nice.

We've got a lot of bad news out of the way now so far in the first two weeks of january. I'd say: the next market catalyst is really the federal well actually, earnings earnings, season's a huge one, but earnings season should be relatively positive. I think the next big catalyst is really going to be the federal reserve uh in their meeting and the federal reserve meets on the i believe, this 24th and 26th sorry, the 25th and 26th. I will confirm uh the 20 20 no hold on.

Let me get going get the date right, i'll figure it out: 25th and 26th. Okay, there we go so 25th and the 26th and uh they will. They will be another catalyst. However, we do have a substantial earnings set between now and the 25th and 26th.

So, for example, tuesday goldman sachs uh, multiple different banks, many banks, my goodness, on the 19th, we have morgan stanley, united health proctor gamble, u.s bancorp we've got thursday american airlines travelers when we got friday, uh ally, financial, schlumberger monday right before the fed, halliburton royal phillips. Johnson johnson verizon general electric mart lockheed martin 3m american express just reading some of the largest ones boeing att nasdaq. These are all none of the consumer ones. Yet that that's that's! When the fed meeting is the next day, you're going to start getting consumer data, mastercard jetblue, sherwin-williams tractor supply, dow chem, caterpillar, chevron, synchrony, okay, so that's all january, actually, one more day in january hold on then there's monday, the 31st uh, but there's barely anything on Monday, okay, good so uh yeah, some some uh earnest earnings are going to be a big catalyst, but a federal reserve coming up as well will be very interesting uh.

I do want to hear what the federal reserve says about some of the inflections that we're seeing to the downside in some of the inflation readings uh, that is pmi ppi, some energy declines uh. Are we seeing the larger than expected seasonal declines in autos and uh, and then the the consumer spending weakness? So, in my opinion, seeing the federal reserve comment on these things could end up being potentially positive catalyst, because the expectation right now is we're not going to get a rate increase this month. We're planning to finish the taper uh, probably by march, and then have a rate left off uh, but it depends what we get if we end up getting some form of a uh. You know some form of negativity from the federal reserve in that hey uh.

You know we're we're ready to raise rates, yep we're going up next, you know in two months, then maybe that might be a little bit of a negative catalyst. What will be very nice, though, is not having to deal with the fed in february you're. So you're going to have all of february without the fed uh you're going to have earnings so really of earning season in february uh it'll, probably earnings season really will go for the first three weeks of february and you'll still have some trickle in earnings. The last week of feb, but mostly it's going to be the the next two to three weeks here in january and the first three weeks of february.

That's going to be earning season, that'll be where the dollars come in uh and then we'll have the federal reserve opine on a market in uh in march. Again, that'll be quite interesting, but this january meeting i think, is going to be quite a quite a nothing burger uh. Oh jp morgan uh recovered a little bit here. It's down only five percent right now, so a little bit of a recovery here, sam adams, recovering a little bit disney 2.81 shift technologies.

Uh 5.56 to the downside. Here. You've got united airlines and delta. These guys down two and a quarter over here.

Lemonade 1.88 tattooed chef, 1.7 lemonade 1.6. These aren't actually horrible declines. You know the way futures were acting this morning, kind of implied that we're going to have a much nastier day today, after those retail sales numbers came in, but the market's actually kind of taking this in stride. Uh, let's see here what's going up, that's so weird see, and it just shows you, the the oddness of the market, look at a firm going for a jog here, going for a run uh up almost four percent after retail sales data misses like what uh it's.

It's honestly comedy uh the stock market's comedy in the short term yeah, but you know what i've always said these are. These are the times that i really like building my longs. Yes, as painful as it is - and i know it's painful - i know there's uh there. It's it's so much more fun when the market's going up, but markets don't only go up.

It's always important to consider that uh and you know it's so weird - we've been through this so many times, but every time the market starts skyrocketing. Everyone in the comments is always complaining about man. I wish the market would dip, so i could buy the dip. Then the dip comes, and literally all of the commons are cluster f like i was going through just to see this sentiment, because i want to ultimately make like a sentiment uh, which i do still i'm gon na write that down.

I still have uh the sentiment. Algo emails that i have to go through uh, i'm gon na write that down really quick, but anyway, uh yeah, you get you get all this fun and it's it's quite frankly. It's like most of the comments uh turn into this. Let's just look at some of them here hold on i'll i'll switch.

This really quick! I want to do i'll, give you a quick little sample and again it it just it's a measure they're very, very few comments that are actually positive. Extremely few, like nobody wants to leave a positive comment, because that's just gon na get down voted to oblivion. You know it's difficult to be positive when times are, are tough because everything's, just negative uh. So here look at look at some of these here.

Okay, so market true value 26, 000, so shout out to some of the people who are getting their their their names up here kind of funny. This was just from yesterday they're pretty more uh. This is an implication that the dow jones should be selling for 26. 000, which would be a decline uh from today's price of about 28.

So this is the kind of stuff you see. Uh fed pumped the market for the past for for 10 years forward in two years: um: okay, uh, i honestly think you're sponsored you are sponsor a sponsored grifter by a certain government institution, say fed yeah, so obviously not true, but this is the kind of pain These these are what these are like: lash out kind of things of people having just pain in the market right uh, this thing about pulling the market forward 10 years by the way uh. You know in two years, by the way i think is hilariously wrong, mostly because i think corporations have gotten so much more efficient uh in uh in the um in the way they're manufacturing goods in their supply chains in the employees that they've kept. I mean look at this one folks, this here's, here's somebody who wants to lash out and be ageist about it.

It's interesting listening to people younger than 35 they've, never really experienced multi-year pain in the stock market. Oh okay, not true, but okay, uh, you're gon na end up under a bridge. Listening to this dude, it's constantly quite hilarious, uh and what's interesting, is the negativity compounds negativity right? So what you end up with is uh inexpensive prices on quality companies. That folks are fearful to buy because everyone around them is complaining about the market.

When i got into the real estate market, it was the most painful time to get into the real estate market and it ended up being the best time to buy and that's what i was doing. I got into the real estate market during pain. I bought homes during pain and everybody around me said: oh, my gosh real estate. Why do you get into that? Real estate loses so much money and i i always remember thinking to myself - and this is at like 18..

I always remember thinking to myself. You know this is the time to buy, because if everybody around me is going oh, i want to buy, i want to buy, i want to buy, then i know it's not the time to buy uh. You know it's kind of like uh right now in real estate. You have this larger sentiment of.

Oh i'm going to wait to buy i'm going to wait to buy okay, okay, you all wait to buy and then, when all y'all, finally capitulate i'll sell uh, but for now i'm still very optimistic uh. I i honestly and some people think i'm delusional and that's fine, it's okay to have a different opinion, but i have not changed my conviction. Inflation's going down this year and the economies and businesses and the consumer, in my opinion, are quite strong, quite strong uh. Even in the face of uh of you know a decline in numbers uh here in december, which some of this personally, i wonder - and i don't know the answer to this - but i do wonder how much of this december decline was the result of a pull forward Of spending to october and november, because remember what everyone was taught about this market folks, everybody about the in this market, was taught to place your christmas orders early because it was going to take longer for your christmas orders to arrive.

I do wonder how much of this consumer decline was the result of this pull forward in spending uh, which is very difficult to adjust for in uh in in in a seasonal basis? Right, so that's something to consider uh! Oh! I do want to mention by the way we uh we, we have not decided anything uh but uh, it's something that that's just sort of been in talks and circulating uh. If, if you're interested in potentially uh learning more about uh some fund opportunities in the future, uh from me or maybe even partnered, with some other youtubers uh, some great friends do consider uh going to met kevin.com cashflow and just throw throw your info in there uh. It's it's a free thing. It's it's not a subscription list.

There's there are no emails that go out to that uh and there won't be any emails that go out to that until we actually have something to announce. But if you wanted to be the first to know about that, you could go to metkevin.com cashflow and throw your info in there. Okay, let's go ahead and take a look at a little bit more here about uh, what's happening here, uh! So, first i want to look at the indices here. Oh look at this folks, they're recovering uh recovering again course.

Member merge drops when right, uh, so yeah, i'm not partnering with kathy wood. No, no, no, no, no uh! So all of the indices are on uh. On a rotation up from the negativity that we had uh just about 20 minutes ago, the what do we have here? Las vegas sands win positive on the macau news: d-wack 3.5 crowdstrike at 179.. It's a nice discount folks, crowdstrike right now is selling for april pricing.

The cybersecurity ones have really gotten hit, and one of the things to know you know - and this is something that's just frustrating for - i imagine these companies, but people regularly throw companies that don't have profit into this bucket of low quality companies which, which is really the Opposite of, in my opinion, what you should be doing uh, because these companies oftentimes cyber security companies, they show low earnings because they're investing so much in growth uh. It's really really quite incredible uh, but that's just what happens when institutions hedge keep in mind folks, the retail buyer uh is, is, in my opinion, substantially less powerful than the institutions and that's because the institutions can take out substantially more leverage than we can and uh Amplify their uh, their their portfolio substantially more and by doing so by amplifying their portfolio, more uh can can make outsized bets on shorting companies or taking negative positions to to hedge their portfolios compared to what we can do instead. So you end up getting, in my opinion, more pain, uh crowd strike affirms up about 2.88 now, not as high as it just ran. I think it just ran up to about four percent and pulled back slightly here.

Let's go ahead and pull the min yeah look at that. You had a nice little run here, slight little pullback coming in right now, uh you've got uh ada sitting at 125.; honey mining up a couple percent robin hood up a couple percent also similar kind of little run here at the beginning, and then the slow down Uh, oh, come on and phase there we go end phase similar movement as well. Neo is at 31., we've really been trading, so terribly sideways. If you think about it, uh on neo, i mean stuck at 30 for how long you know it's it's up.

It's up or down 10 percent on a day, but it feels like nvidia coming back to the 270s sitting at 269 right now, cloud fair up as well. Let's go grab some news as well here in a moment, once we get into these smaller moves. It's less interesting to actually look at these amc down: four percent under 20 right now: jp morgan down the full five percent nordstrom down on this uh consumer sales decline. Okay, let's uh, let's see what we have on bloom in space.

No one can hear you scream. That's actually a good one uh! Oh, that's a knee slapper, it's under ten dollars. Now, oh yeah yeah! This is actually true. It's not just that pull forward! This makes sense omicron.

What did we? What did we say talk about yesterday? Folks? Yesterday we talked about uh. This uh right here on screen now folks, you see what that is. This is a substantial decline in uh mobility data like here's, your google mobility index through january uh january 11th. I believe it was straight down right here and uh.

This is straight down following the uh, the the launch really of omicron here. What i do think is incredible. Is delta was right here, look at that folks, mobility, getting spanked uh on the right side here, relative to delta, so we are having less consumer mobility uh. Now than we did with delta, that's freaking nutty uh, it's that's quite wild, so that's not, unfortunately, great uh.

For for the short term, look the short term is gon na be crap. The short term is really gon na grab. I do really believe uh and again maybe i'm gon na be wrong. It's entirely possible, but i really really believe that we're gon na have this bizarre uh.

Oh here it is. I already have it it's right here. This bizarre fear point where we are right here. Folks, where all of the fear is trying to price into the market now, especially omicron slow down? Oh, my gosh, china, ports, more inflation, the omicron never goes away or covet, never goes away, blah blah blah blah all the more fear right now, which means we still have a little bit of pain ahead of us.

I i don't think a substantial amount of pain ahead of us, but we definitely still have pain ahead of us uh and i think the reality is that fear is going to rotate down. It's not going to follow this dotted line of an expectation, we're actually going to have the least amount of fear when rates actually start lifting off, and it's going to be it's quite frankly going to be the opposite of what people expect the masses expect and we're Gon na look back to this time and go wow, i wish i could buy more at those crazy low prices. Scott rooney, i am the last of the boomers and have seen every market imaginable. These negative trolls are just that.

Keep it good! Thank you, scott for saying that you spent five dollars to lift my spirits yeah. I really appreciate that, because the amount of negativity in the comment sections it's so bad, i don't even want to look uh, but this is it's so common. During these times i've been through this so many times everybody makes funny via when things are down and when things are up uh, it is obviously the most enjoyable but uh. That's also when it's time to go uh risk off right uh.

But that's that's always that's. The irony about my channel is when things were going euphoric in november, i'm the guy going hold on hold on, don't go into too much debt take some profits. I said that for weeks and then all of the comments are man. This guy's just a fudster, it's mr food.

He just wants the market to drop, so he could buy the dick. You just can't win all right so uh. What do we got here? U.S economy will take a hit early this year from omicron uh, but damage shouldn't. Last beyond the first quarter, according to bloomberg's latest monthly survey of forecasters expectations for growth in gdp for jan dropped to 3 from 3.9 forecasts for inflation, however, were marked up for each quarter into 2023, reflecting prolonged problems with supply chains that risk being exacerbated by omicron.

The new pandemic wave has upended travel and contributed to empty supermarket shelves as workers call in sick growth. Momentum appears to be stalling, among other indicators, the point that they point to a sharp decline in office occupancy that reversed. Almost all of last year's back to work drive. We expect the omicron hit the gdp to be short and sharp.

You know that's actually interesting. You know who we need. Folks, okay, hold on hold on. I wan na i wan na see if somebody can get this without me saying this: okay, who is the person we need for a short and sharp decline from omicron? I i need.

I need the first name and last name: who is the person that we need in the meantime i'll answer? This calls on nike thoughts. Let me look at calls on nike um, and then i i want that name. Somebody's gon na get it i'll give it a minute here all right: it's definitely not sleepy joe. No, no, no! No! No, who who's gon na who's, gon na motivate you that it's gon na be short there.

He got it. Jake got it. Larry kudlow we're gon na have a v-shaped recovery. Oh that's donald trump's voice as larry kudlow we're gon na have a v recovery.

I see the v we're forming a v. Oh my gosh! It's too funny how long we dealt with that crap. Oh my gosh! Ah uh, yes, yes, we are in a short-term bear market alex. You are not wrong: um, okay, so this is actually interesting.

You are getting a nice uh. You are getting a nice decline, a discount here in nike for sure uh. This. I think this decline here was, i think, the taiwanese shutdowns on uh on manufacturing and this decline here is is just the more recent decline.

That's fascinating. I mean i love nike and we're sitting at the highs of december 2020. Pricing. So you know calls could bleed.

Quite a bit, but they could end up becoming profitable in the longer term. If i went out to september of this year, i'd probably go for something in the money uh. This is the kind of stuff we talk about by the way. In the course member live streams, you can't be up every single day of the year, but in the course member live streams we still talk logically and rationally.

So, if you're interested in logic and and reason consider checking out the programs link down below building your world, the the um open interest here is is there's very very little around these these low prices, which is very bad for liquidity. Unfortunately, uh i might have to go to jan 2023 to get myself some options and, oh seriously, this is not terrible, not terrible in my opinion, so the 100 call on uh nike costs you about 52 right now. That means you're paying about three dollars and like 65 cents, for this contract, divided by uh you're paying about 3.65 for this contract. That's not bad! In my opinion, that's actually a pretty good deal for a year contract on nike.

That is not a bad deal. I'd like that, so thank you. Whoever asked what do i think about call options on nike i like that uh hold on. What's the breaking news thanks david also business inventory is for november, and i want to highlight this because we know we need inventories november.

Inventories are up 1.3 percent and there's been a lot of up 1.3 percent. You had one in 94, 87 84, but to find a higher month over month change. You have to go all the way back to 1982.. So this is a good thing.

If you want to be buying things and you look at supply chain, woes inventories are a needed essential now, university of michigan sentiment january. Preliminary read expected to be 70.0 is a miss at 68.8 68.8. That's the lightest read since november when it was 67.4 and that was a 10 year low. Let's go through it.

Shall we? If we look at expect or current conditions, they were 73.2, that's roughly in line with expectations sequentially lower than 74.2. Our final read for december: if we look at what lies ahead with respect to expectations, 65.9, that's light and sequentially following 68.3 and finally, the inflation data always important. The one-year outlook at 4.9 percent keep in mind. It was 4.9 percent in november, and that was the highest level since 2008, so we equaled that uh and if you look at the five to ten year outlook it's 2.9, our last look: it's jumped to 3.1 to find a higher number than 3.1.

You go back to 2011, so basically call it a 10-year high. So once again we had some misses on the data, but when you look towards pricing, it's been the big story of 2021 moving into 2022 inflation, inflation, inflation morgan back to you, rick santelli. Thank you. That's interesting, you know what this is going to do is this is going to do another uh.

This is going to pull up kathy wood right now is doing this yay and the reason she's doing that is because she's regularly been arguing that a business inventories are going to create deflation. So i'm not i'm not that far uh. You know on on the other side of that spectrum, like the the spectrum, is long. Okay, uh it it is.

It is very, very long, the spectrum here you know what let me uh. Let me draw the spectrum for you. Okay, so here we go. This is the spectrum.

Okay, on the left side you have uh michael bury, so this is gon na. Be your your brewery, your gold buyers, uh on the right side, you're gon na. Have your your wood kathy wood uh? This is the middle here uh and then you're gon na have elon musk, it's probably over here and so gold buyers, michael bury on the far left, elon musk is a little bit more on the left here. I'm gon na probably put jack dorsey, oh probably over here as well dorsey.

He might actually be a little bit further than elon or uh whatever it doesn't really matter, roughly around the same spot. There uh, and so i would probably put myself uh here uh. This is this is where i put kevin kevin yeah, whatever uh, and the reason for that there we go uh whatever i can't. I can't even get my own name written today.

That's fine! So anyway, the reason for that is on the right side. You have this belief that all these inventories are going to lead to deflation and then over here and then this is really transitory right. This is camp transitory and then over here you have uh hyperinflation inflation in this sort of continued pain. Unfortunately, you have a market that does a lot of vacillating.

I would actually say the market is mostly vacillating between here. So this is where i think the market is between here and here and it's this sort of dance that we're getting this kind of back and forth right here. So, in other words, i actually think i'm more optimistic than the market is but uh. I don't think the market is as pessimistic as michael bury or the uh the the gold sellers so uh yeah.

I don't i don't know, hopefully that that helps kind of explain a little bit. Uh yeah. So oh opinion about where jpow is. Oh, that's a good one um i would probably put j pal um.

J-Pal is not a hawk he's. Definitely on the right side. I know that honestly, i i would probably put jay pal uh even slightly a little bit to the right of me there in terms of being a little bit more towards kathy wood. That's probably where i put j-pal.

I think i've uh, i think, i'm pretty close to where j-power is where's nancy pelosi uh. I would probably guess that nancy pelosi, just based on her trades uh is, is probably uh even a little bit more. This way, that's that's probably what i would say in between you and wood: oh yeah, okay, that's kind of what we put okay, yeah, all right, so uh! You know - and i i think it's nice to visualize it like this, because it's it's so easy to to say: oh, you know somebody's an idiot for being all one side or whatever and uh yeah, okay, good so um. Otherwise, it doesn't really look like uh the market's doing some kind of substantial move here beyond me.

Just moved down about 4.7 percent, though, and you've got some shorter term pain here, coming to disney tattooed chef, tattoo chef, 1375., uh expi, oh gosh, under 30. Again, it was just up 10 like two days ago, and now it's been down like three percent in a row three days, uh jamie dimon seems close to the middle leaning towards diamond uh is very optimistic about the economy, but i i do think is a little Bit more concerned about inflation than than pelosi and j-pal. If i were gon na put jamie diamond somewhere, i'd probably put him uh right here. That is, i think, he's optimistic, but he's not, as you know, as convinced that inflation is going to be as transitory like goldman sachs they're, probably sitting more over here sacks.

These are my my guesses there on uh on these uh positions, all right: okay, good uh, ross, gerber, ross gerber is he's he's actually probably over here. I don't think he's as far as kathy based on some of his investments, but he's pretty convinced that we've got transitory inflation he's more transitory than i am uh, which i admire. I think it's awesome, because i i really believe in ross and kathy wood more than i believe in bury or the gold sellers, and i think elon's got his head up. The manufacturing hole which i i know is like kind of a slam uh.

It is a slam and i really like and respect and admire elon, but i don't have to love everything he says uh and what i mean by that is, i, i think, he's he's uh overly exposed to manufacturing complexities and supply chain issues, and i think that's Giving him this impression that that you know the entire economy is, is suffering uh at the same level, that manufacturing is suffering, especially when he says that and then, like a few weeks later, they they essentially officiate that the cyber truck ain't coming in 2022. I think that uh that exemplifies his his frustrations, uh anyway uh i actually am not afraid of being called a bear alex uh. I i have hedged my long positions in the past, i'm not right now, uh. The the problem i have with hedging is, i believe, so much in the economy that a hedge is is really betting against trained america right, you're, betting against the long-term directional movement of our country, and so uh hedges require much more timing and perfection than uh than Than long positions do generally uh generally hedges are harder to time than longs.

So that's that's more of the thing. Okay, cool! Thank you. So much for being here appreciate you all uh go to metcalfer.comcashflow to sign up for like an alert whenever, whenever we announce something in the future uh when and if and uh, feel free to check out the programs on building your wealth down below. We'll do a course member live.