Follow my Twitter for more financial content: https://twitter.com/casgains
For business inquiries, please email founders @casgainsmedia.com
Michael Burry just dropped a bombshell prediction: the world is about to head back to the 1970s. The 1970s was a terrifying decade to live in. The stock market was in complete turmoil. It halved within a matter of 20 months. Unemployment was skyrocketing. And while that was happening, prices were rising at unprecedented rates. But worst of all, all of these issues remained for an entire decade. That’s a frightening reality to live in and Burry thinks that we’re taking a trip back in time. Everyone knows that history repeats itself because human behavior never changes. Having studied the 1970s extensively, Burry is confident that several critical patterns in the 70s will occur once again. You see, inflation has begun to decelerate to 6.5% year over year in the latest month. And because of that, everyone thinks that inflation will begin to fade away as we enter a recession. People will say that “once prices begin to drop and the economy recovers, we will recover from our economic crisis.”(do a cartoon speech bubble animation) But Burry knows something that many others don’t know. Burry questioned, “What strategy will pull us out of this real recession? What forces would pull us so? There are none. So we are really looking at an extended multi-year recession. Who is predicting this? There are none.” But what does Burry mean by a multi-year recession? The term may seem foreign because the COVID recession was one of the shortest recessions in history. Behind the finance terminology, Burry’s thesis is actually quite simple. Think about the economy as a bathtub. Everyone wants to understand the level of economic activity and how fast the economy is growing or shrinking. In the analogy of a bathtub, the water level represents the current level of the economy. If the water level is near the top of the bathtub, that would be considered robust economic activity. And if the water level is at the bottom of the tub, that would be a recession or depression. We ideally want to see the water between the middle to the top of the bathtub. The pandemic caused the water level to enter the bottom territory of the tub. The Federal Reserve pumped so much water into the tub that the water overflowed and spilled all over the restroom. To compensate for this disaster, the Fed is now sucking water out of the bathtub, causing the water level to reach the bottom of the tub. This makes perfect sense in theory, but the Fed forgot about the water that spilled all over the restroom. All the water that’s on the floor represents a hidden danger that nobody is thinking about: money velocity. If you were to put that water on the floor back into the bathtub, then the bathtub would be full and spill once again. Burry explained how “velocity is nominal GDP/money supply (M2 here). QT (Quantitative Tightening) + higher rates starting to push M2 down. Yet we are seeing a tick up in velocity, emerging from narrative obscurity. In 1978-79, rising velocity trumped falling money supply to drive inflation higher and higher. Redux would shock.” So let’s think about this in terms of the bathtub analogy. Even though the Fed is sucking water out of the tub, the water on the floor is going to fill the tub at a rate much faster than the Fed is taking water out. This will cause the tub to be filled up once again. But what exactly is the velocity of money? The velocity of money represents the rate at which each dollar is spent on goods and services. Everyone is sitting on their cash right now because people know that we’re in a recession. If prices were to finally start dropping at rapid rates, people will start buying products once again. This would cause the velocity of money to go up because the dollar is being transacted more often. There’s a terrifying dilemma occurring in that scenario. If prices were to drop and the velocity of money were to increase, then prices would start accelerating again. This would lead to a second wave of inflation caused by the velocity of money. Such an occurrence happened in the 1970s. Even though the money supply was being shrunk by the Fed, the velocity of money was increasing so fast that inflation accelerated again to over 14%.
Another event that will make Burry’s thesis even more frightening is the idea that the Fed will suddenly start printing money again. Burry believes that from June to December of 2023, inflation will likely start decelerating to levels that may even be negative. This will be due to rising interest rates from the Federal Reserve. The issue is that the velocity of money likely won’t start accelerating until 2024. So before the velocity of money picks up, the Fed and the fiscal government will start printing money again. This will lead to the start of the next spike in inflation just like we experienced in the late 1970s.

- Michael Burry just dropped a bombshell prediction. The World is about to head back to the 1970s. - A Statewide jobless rate of 9.3% has jammed local unemployment offices. - It was announced today that gasless Sundays will go into effect as of next month.

- I Think it's going to end with everybody changing their habits and going back to the things that maybe our parents were used to that we have never seen before. - Almost A thousand of them showed up at City Hall in Soddy Daisy today, lined up from one end of the hall to the other. They were all there in response to a help wanted ad. - The 1970s was a terrifying decade to live in.

The stock market was in complete turmoil. It halved within a matter of 20 months. Unemployment was skyrocketing and while that was happening,, prices were rising at unprecedented rates. But Worst of all,, all of these issues remained for an entire decade.

That's a frightening reality to live in, and Burry thinks that we're taking a trip back in time. Everyone knows that history repeats itself, because human behavior never changes. Having Studied the 1970s extensively, Burry is confident that several critical patterns in the 70s will occur once again. You See,, inflation has begun to decelerate to 6.5% year over year in the latest month.

And because of that, everyone thinks that inflation will begin to fade away as we enter a recession. - At Today's meeting, the committee raised the target range for the Federal funds rate by 25 basis points, bringing the target range to four and a half to four and three quarters percent. - The Decision was widely expected by economists and it's a step down from recent increases since inflation is starting to slow and the Fed has decided it doesn't need to be as aggressive. - People Will say that once prices begin to drop and the economy recovers,, we will recover from our economic crisis.

But Burry knows something that many others don't know. Burry Questioned, "What strategy will pull us out of this real recession? What Forces would pull us so? There are none. So We are really looking at an extended multi-year recession. Who is predicting this? There are none." But What does Burry mean by a multi-year recession? The Term may seem foreign, because the Covid recession was one of the shortest recessions in history.

Behind The finance terminology, Burry's thesis is actually quite simple. Think of the economy as a bathtub.. Everyone Wants to understand the level of economic activity and how fast the economy is growing or shrinking. In The analogy of a bathtub,.

the water level represents the current level of the economy. If The water level is near the top of the bathtub, that would be considered robust economic activity. and if the water level is at the bottom of the tub, that would be a recession or depression. We Ideally want to see the water between the middle to the top of the bathtub.

The Pandemic caused the water level to enter the bottom territory of the tub. The Federal Reserve Pumped so much water into the tub that the water overflowed and spilled all over the restroom. To Compensate for this disaster, the Fed is now sucking water out of the bathtub, causing the water level to reach the bottom of the tub. This makes perfect sense in theory, but the Fed forgot about the water that spilled all over the restroom.
All The water that's on the floor represents a hidden danger that nobody is thinking about. Money Velocity. If You were to put that water on the floor back into the bathtub, then the bathtub will be full and spill once again. Burry Explained how, "Velocity is nominal GDP over money supply, M2 here.

Quantitative Tightening plus higher rates starting to push M2 down, yet we are seeing a take up in velocity, emerging from narrative obscurity. In 1978 to 79, rising velocity trumped falling money supply to drive inflation higher and higher. Redux would shock." So Let's think about this in terms of the bathtub analogy. Even Though the Fed is sucking water out of the tub,, the water on the floor is going to fill the tub at a rate much faster than the Fed is taking water out.

This will cause the tub to be filled up once again. But What exactly is the velocity of money? The Velocity of Money represents the rate at which each dollar is spent on goods and services. Everyone is sitting on their cash right now, because people know that we're in a recession. If Prices were to finally start dropping at rapid rates,.

people will start buying products once again. This would cause the velocity of money to go up, because the dollar is being transacted more often. There's a terrifying dilemma occurring in that scenario.. If Prices were to drop and the velocity of Money were to increase, then prices would start accelerating again.

This would lead to a second wave of inflation caused by the Velocity of Money. Such An occurrence happened in the 1970s. Even Though the money supply was being shrunk by the Fed, the velocity of Money was increasing so fast that inflation accelerated again to over 14%. - Prices went up infamously during the Carter presidency.

- Inflation was increasing and unemployment was increasing at the same time. That wasn't supposed to happen. - All These people stood in line today and filled out applications at Chattanooga's Employment Security Office. They were responding to this ad posted in yesterday's and today's local newspapers.

- Carpet is a luxury during hard times. That's one explanation given by employers forced to lay off workers because of drooping carpet sales. - Other Jobs are taken and this is a new opening. Everybody needs a job - Just No jobs, not here in Chattanooga, I guess.

You Know, no jobs here. - Another Event that will make Burry's thesis even more frightening is the idea that the Fed will suddenly start printing money again. Burry believes that from June to December of 2023,, inflation will likely start decelerating to levels that may even be negative. This will be due to rising interest rates from the Federal Reserve.
The issue is that the velocity of money likely won't start accelerating until 2024.. So Before the velocity of money picks up, the Fed and the fiscal government will start printing money again. This will lead to the start of the next spike in inflation, just like we experienced in the late 1970s. - Specifically, Burns Said he opposes continuing the 1975 temporary income tax cuts, which now put more money in every worker's paycheck..

Burns Also said most of today's jobless are voluntarily unemployed, explaining that because of unemployment insurance, they're not forced to take the first job that comes along, but can wait for a better one. As A result,, he said, the newspapers are full of help wanted ads and farmers can't get workers to pick their fruit. - Burry Explained how, "Inflation peaked, but it is not the last peak of this cycle. We are likely to see CPI lower, possibly negative in 2H 2023, and the US in recession by any definition.

Fed will cut and the government will stimulate and we will have another inflation spike, it's not hard." So Not only do we have the mess that the overflowed bathtub created on the floor,, but we also have the Fed pumping even more water into the tub. Both of these activities are only going to overflow the bathtub once again. The Bathtub might even be filled up to an even larger degree than last time. Such An event already happened in the 70s and 80s and will inevitably happen once again.

Some Investors might think that the Fed isn't that dumb and has our best interest in mind, but Burry knows that's not true, given their sketchy track record. Michael Burry Accused the Fed of purposefully selling all of their stocks at the top of the bubble in the Fall of 2021. "Follow the Fed? Never forget the Fall of 2021. When Fed Governors suddenly decided, in a Nostradamus move, that it was unethical for they themselves to hold and to trade in stocks." While Our current situation is similar to the 1970s,.

There are also many parallels between now and the dot-com bubble. The Number of similarities between the dot-com bubble and right now are shocking. - This Closing bell might as well have been an alarm, So savage was the selling. In Percentage terms, it had less impact than the crash of '87.

The plunge was sparked by a jumping US inflation. The Fear, a bigger hike in interest rates, the only remedy. - And So as the stock price was going the wrong way, everything inside the company was going the right way. - Internet Giant Yahoo is worth more on paper than the total value of Kmart, Hilton Hotels and Delta Airlines combined.

- In The year 1999,, there were 457 IPOs, most of which were internet and technology related. In 2001, the number of IPOs dwindled to 76. - Just Like the dot-com bubble,, we had a mass amount of IPOs in 2021. We also had bubble crypto coins that had no function other than making money, which was just like the internet stocks with no fundamentals..
And Lastly,, we had a high volume of fraudulent schemes that were just like Enron, WorldCom and many others in the dot-com bubble.. Now That the recession has sunk in, the fraudsters have been exposed and the bubble coins are now in the dumpster,. But the crash is far from over, because some people still insist on buying the dip in bubble stocks and coins. Burry Explained how in early 2022, "Investors were asking me why I wasn't buying WorldCom.

Feels like that right now." WorldCom is one of the largest accounting frauds from the dot-com bubble. The Scandal came to light in the summer of 2002. Many Investors wanted to purchase the dip on WorldCom prior to the company being exposed. You See,, businesses like WorldCom still exist today,, but they just haven't been exposed yet..

So With all that being said,, Burry doesn't think that the crash is over yet. He tweeted, "Maybe," with a petrifying graph attached. The Graph had a circle around late 2001 before the market crashed even more. This indicates that Burry believes that we will have a 25 to 35% further drop in the market.

So Given everything we covered in this video,, you might be wondering how an investor like Burry is not only protecting his portfolio, but also profiting from this upcoming trend. - So You made a ton of money? - Made A ton of money. Much More than I ever imagined, you know, I'd ever have. Well, we had a giant bet for us and I was extremely confident in the outcome.

- Contrary To what you might be thinking,, Burry isn't shorting the market right now. This is because inflation has already peaked in the short term and that's a bullish sign for the market right now. Burry tweeted, "I am not short. Well, I've been six feet for a while.

May get to 1.7 meters in time." These Tweets are obviously not in reference to Burry's height. Burry's real height is actually five foot seven, or 1.7 meters. He's referring to the fact that he is actually quite tall right now. In Other words,, he is more long positions than short positions.

So Instead of shorting the market,, Burry is purchasing assets that would perform well in this environment.. We're currently dealing with economic contraction and an inflation simultaneously. In Times like this,, gold is a protective asset against currencies like the dollar. Many Investors saw cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin as a store value and therefore a competitor for gold.

But Now that crypto is doing extremely poorly,, Burry believes that gold will be a strong investment in the near future. He explained how he, "Long thought that the time for gold would be when crypto scandals merge into contagion." Another Asset that tends to do well in the current environments is companies that generate high amounts of cash flow. Burry has found two sectors with these cash cow companies, one of which is actually Hong Kong stocks. He tweeted, "As for me,, I like Hong Kong." Many Investors are scared of the Hong Kong market due to its ties to China.
But Burry believes that behind the fog, there's actually a huge opportunity there.. Most Hong Kong Citizens are skeptical of the stock market, because they see the market as a risky investment. So Instead of investing in the market,, Hong Kong Citizens are more likely to invest in other assets like bonds and real estate. This has caused the Hong Kong stock market to be extremely undervalued in comparison to the US market where investing in the market is encouraged.

The Hong Kong Economy is under substantial pressure due to Covid restrictions, but times are changing now. Hong Kong has been loosening its restrictions on mainland China and other countries, which has led many economists to become bullish on Hong Kong. A Survey by Bloomberg show that economists now see Hong Kong's economy growing by 3.3% rather than the previous forecast of 2.7%. This is happening, while the Hong Kong Stock Market or the Hang Seng is down by a significant amount.

Burry tweeted, "Meet The New Boss, same as the old Boss. The Hang Seng recently hit 1997 levels. 25 years, yet GDP multiplied 18 times during that time. 1997 valuations were 20 times earnings, 10 times EV to sales, three times tangible to book.

Now 7/1/1. Note, three of last four, Premieres served three terms." So Instead of a 20 times price-to-earnings ratio in 1997,, the Hang Seng is now trading at a seven P-to-E ratio. And instead of a 10 times enterprise-value-to-sales ratio,, the Hang Seng is now at a one times EV-to-sales ratio. And instead of a three times price-to-book ratio,, the Hang Seng is now at a one times price-to-book ratio..

The Facts that the Hang Seng's valuation ratios are trading at such low value suggests that the market is incredibly undervalued.. But Many of you may be skeptical of the Hong Kong market, which opens up the option of the US market. - News Today,, but even more fascinating than that is actually former hedge fund manager in the Big Short, investor Michael Burry, noted he sold all of his positions earlier this year except this one. - A Protest is happening right now in front of The Geo Group in Boca Raton.

According to a Facebook post from that group, "Fort Lauderdale, food not bombs." - In Addition to Hong Kong stocks, Burry has been purchasing US stocks with high cash flow yields. A company's cash flow yield is calculated by taking its free cash flow and dividing it by the equity value. So This means that to achieve a high cash flow yield, a company can either have a low valuation,, high cash flow, or both.. Following Dot-com Crash,.
these types of cash cows perform extremely well and there's no reason to believe that the exact same thing won't happen right now.. Burry actually believes that the buying opportunity for cash cows is even better now than in 2002. He Explained how, "Low Price/cash flow businesses are different today versus 2000, because they will buy back stock, buy back debt at a discount,, and in general, managed capital structure better. Makes them better statistical values, math problems that more or less must work out." Burry Further explained this thesis by saying, "Companies that are heavily leveraged but have the cash flow and termed out debt have options today, including reducing their debt loads at a significant discount brought on by higher rates.

But As Graham said,, in such a case,, better off buying the stock." So Burry's essentially purchasing stocks that have the following four characteristics. High cash flow, low valuations, high debt, and a strong moat. Stocks with these characteristics, will likely do incredibly well in a post-speculative environment. One Example of this is Burry's largest holding, The Geo Group, which is a private prison facility.

Although Their business model is controversial, the company has the exact characteristics that Burry is looking for.. The Company generates massive amounts of cash flow, has a low valuation,, a high debt-to-equity ratio, and a strong moat. The Geo Group currently makes up about 37% of Burry's portfolio. Do You agree with Burry's thesis and his investments? If You want to see more videos like this, please hit the like button and subscribe and I'll see you in the next one.


By Stock Chat

where the coffee is hot and so is the chat

31 thoughts on “Michael burry: this is 10 times worse than a recession”
  1. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Charles Law says:

    The bath tub metaphor is bad. What about the China sponge/mop 🙂

  2. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars David W. says:

    I was a child in the 70s and was unaware of the difficulties. However, having conversations with my parents over the years makes me understand what they and other adults went through. We are going to experience something similar in terms of inflation and interest rates. This time though our problems are compounded by much higher levels of debt

  3. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Jason T. Taylor says:

    You work for 40yrs to have $1m in your retirement, Meanwhile some people are putting just $10k in a meme coin for just few months and now they are multimillionaires.I pray that anyone who reads this will be successful in life

  4. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars steve says:

    As recession fears mount on Wall Street and inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target, some of the top commentators in markets, business, and economics have been sounding off on just how bad they think the next downturn might be — and how far stocks may have to fall. I need ideas and advice on what investments to make to set myself up for retirement, my goal is to have a portfolio of at least $850k at the age of 60.

  5. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Dante Deloden says:

    This is dierctly to Michael Burry, while I admire your mathematical prowess and ability to enact it in stocks, I highly disagree with the investment into private prisons. This is exactly the type of company he proudly refuted the business model of years ago. The private Prison business model generates large cash flow with little debt and valuation due to the federal government subsidizing all of its income in the first place and abusing slave labor. While everyone ALREADY KNOWS private prisons are extremely profitable, its highly unethical.

  6. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Art Arm says:

    Bay or Sell ?🤔🤔

  7. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Яромир Фёдоров says:

    Due to the rate of unemployment and increase in market am happy I make over $2,600 every 7 days recently

  8. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars NickBall says:

    Buy $TSLA and hold it for 5+ years. You’ll ride out short term fluctuations and make 5 to 10x on your investment.

  9. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Tom Zhang says:

    Imma just this and you guys think for yourselves if everyone is shouting a recession is coming there won’t be a recession

  10. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Myra says:

    You tubers , if you tune in to THE MAVERICK OF WALL STREET , you will receive some good advice

  11. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Jeffrey Marshall says:

    Covid wasn’t a recession, it was the government turning off the lights a couple months and overcompensating people for the the financial impact it caused. The only thing that pulled us out of the 2008 recession was artificially low interest rates and trillions in bailouts and government debt. Debt that has ballooned from $10 trillion to $32 trillion in that short time. We have some ugly times coming our way.

  12. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars raheem allen says:

    📢 Alert A Sunday Law will be The Mark Of The Beast when enforce by law, Those that keep Gods seventh day sabbath will be prohibited from buying and sell and persecuted. Jesus is coming are you ready?

  13. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Waled Mazal says:

    Of altcoins, I can highlight anonymous Crypton, it has very big prospects

  14. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Simone Carpentieri says:

    BS

  15. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Cloud District says:

    Meh, SEC will designate the ISO crypto's as securities, accreditted investor limits will be lifted to 10M. Locking out the majority. The ledger will enable velocity, the Cbdc backed by SDR's will enable an economic recovery & give all nations a proxy way to trade with each other to avoid public backlash via sentiment towards differences & actions.

  16. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Himani says:

    This bury guy predicted so many things last year nothing of which came true

  17. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Chris Acevedo says:

    He’s Ben predicting since 2020

  18. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars John Daniels says:

    "If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless." – Thomas Jefferson

  19. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Jack Jason says:

    The best stock in market is Flour Corporation now! Buy it and keep it for next 2-3 years! Do not think to that much

  20. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Jeffrey Hulkman says:

    A recession as bad it can be, provides good buying opportunities in the markets if you’re careful and it can also create volatility giving great short time buy and sell opportunities too. This is not financial advise but get buying, cash isn’t king at all in this time!

  21. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Hitoshi Noguchi says:

    I wonder how he figures demographics into this. The average boomer was 24 in 1979 and 68 in 2023. The largest population group was just entering the job market in the late 70s and they are leaving the labor market in now. That should affect money velocity differently.

  22. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Just Another Old Guy says:

    Weren't you claiming that China would collapse in a month, about 6 months ago? Do people really take you seriously?

  23. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars More Peace says:

    WAR is the force unfortunately

  24. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Ryan Greenwald says:

    Great content broski, keep it up!

  25. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars carole doerr says:

    I am glad that you spoke about Hong Kong. I was there in 2014 and it still felt like it was under British rule with on exception: The people were not happy about being under the control of China. I am sure that the rich generation will have good feelings about financial freedom.

  26. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars GodTheFather says:

    Watch out for these paid bots with fake thumbs up that are shilling random cryptos that are scam

  27. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Pablo Es says:

    He was right last year and I made a lot of money from the 500 so will keep an eye on what he predicts

  28. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Aesops Retreat says:

    How is it that people who never lived in the 70's think they can claim what it was like. In 1970 I was 22 and halfway through my tour in Vietnam. I was married in '71 and released from the service in '72. The 70's were awesome. Just like the 1960s were awesome. OK, we had a slight problem that didn't last all that long with a Gasoline shortage. But that gas shortage was NOTHING compared to the recent toilet paper shortage. Congress couldn't do a damn thing about the lack of toilet paper, but they acted pretty damned fast when nobody had fuel.

    And NOOOO. It didn't last for a DECADE. If it didn't we didn't feel it all that bad. The worst part were the gas lines at the pump which didn't last long because they came up with a way for people to take turns. And even THAT didn't last long. Again; it was like the toilet paper issue. For a short while people were hogging them, until stores devised a limit, then over time it fixed itself. But to claim the toilet paper issue lasted a year or two would be wrong. The worst of it lasted a month. Then each day and each week it slowly mellowed itself out. Same with "THE 70s." We had a week or two of gas problems, then it went away. It WAS NOT a "Decade" horror. What total BS.

    Stop making chit up – Ask someone who was there.
    BTW: Don't care if you didn't ask, but Racism was on its OUT at that time too, until Obama brought it back because his dad wanted a race war.

  29. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Hannah Widder says:

    To be successful in markets, traders should understand the crossover between asset classes & liquidity flow, Mrs. Julia David focuses on Multi-asset trading, a single strategy to manage risk, profit, and the code or the actual decision-making across multi-asset classes. Her skills set is top notch.

  30. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Mikehawk says:

    In a breakout right now looking for the blow off top before we wipe out again

  31. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Thomas Kauser says:

    Powell is done ! Nobody wants to wait for treasury bills to mature and Powell continuing to be a rookie makes jumping to 10 year notes to wait at a lower yield for a bonanza of capital gains LATER is a decade long no brainer?
    He might have learned how to push the joystick forward , pulling it back is way above his job knowledge?
    That last quarter point up should have been down ? He's just to stupid to realize it yet?

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.