Burley just went all in on the worst financial crisis in history i've spent spent the past few weeks researching everything about bury to finally uncover his intricate investment bury made hundreds of millions on the dot com bubble in the 2008 recession and he now believes he can make billions of dollars in the coming months. If you search up michael bury's portfolio online you can find burry's disclosed holdings pretty easily that is just what brewery wants you to see burrie holds. 11. Stocks worth a total of 165 million dollars and options contracts worth roughly 3 million dollars.

Bury's total public holdings is roughly 168 million dollars. But according to bury's form adv he manages 291 million dollars so where did berry invest the remaining 123 million dollars. This video will explain exactly how billy just went all in on the incoming market crash before we get into bury's confidential holdings. We have to talk about his publicly disclosed stocks and options michael burry manages a hedgerow named scion asset management which needs to disclose its assets every quarter through 13f filings a 13f filing is a form by the security and exchange commission.

That discloses institutional stock and options holdings every institutional fund manager that manages at least 100 million dollars in assets must file a 13f filing michael bury manages roughly 300 million dollars. So he must complete a 13f filing by law on page three of his latest 13 app filing you can see how berry owns. 11. Different stocks and one put option all of these stocks are bets on a short term macroeconomic thesis.

Bury expects inflation to continue to accelerate in a cyclical fashion with prices spiraling upwards with this inflation. Thesis. In mind. Burri.

Has chosen stocks that will thrive as inflation accelerates. Over the next few years. One of the key factors. During inflation is input costs input costs are costs that occur during the creation of a product or service.

Some examples of this include labor material fuel buildings and equipment. This is because if prices rise input costs will as well and consequently lower profit margins for instance. Airline companies are currently dealing with two major input costs higher fuel prices and wages airlines have been raising ticket prices but because inflation is constantly accelerating airplane tickets must continuously rise as well higher ticket prices will reduce consumer activity causing airline companies to experience lower profits michael bury is fully aware of the importance of input costs during inflationary. Periods he holds 11 stocks worth a total of 1648 million dollars.

That have a common theme. These holdings can be categorized into four categories. Travel tech. Healthcare and value brewery's two holdings in the travel sector are going to benefit significantly from increasing oil prices for example.

Booking holdings is an online booking company that earns a set commission on bookings as ticket prices rise. So will the profit of booking holdings. The second holding on venative owns a company named in cannon that extracts natural gas this means that as gas prices rise so will avenative's profits michael bury also owns tech stocks that have little to no input costs companies like google and meta are almost entirely based on the internet. Which requires minuscule material costs.

The brewery's holdings in the healthcare sector. Have the characteristic of having strong pricing power. Which is the ability to raise prices both cigna and bristol myers have relationships and patents that give them substantial market share lastly brewery also owns value stocks that are trading at a deep discount to their true value because the stocks are already trading below their true value their valuations. Don't have as much room to fall even though i separated berry's holdings in the four categories.

Most of the companies have very similar characteristics almost all of them have extremely high profit margins major competitive advantages strong pricing power huge cash positions and low valuations. The most important characteristic out of them all is pricing power. Warren buffett. Once described pricing power as the most important aspect of any business especially during inflationary periods.

Having pricing power ensures that companies will continue to produce profits as inflation. Accelerates. Brewery also holds put options on apple stock. Put options are contracts to sell 100 shares of stock at a certain price for instance.

Let's say. There is a put option on google stock that has a strike price of three thousand dollars. And an expiration date of july 13 2023. This put option gives the owner.

The right to sell 100 shares of google at 3 000. By july 13. 2023 various options contracts to sell 206 000. Apple shares.

But we don't know when they expire or how much they cost based on the current options prices. We can safely estimate. The contract price at roughly 15 per contract. This means that bury only has roughly 3 million dollars.

Worth of apple put options. The reason. Why brewery is buying puts on apple is because of its high input costs for its hardware products iphones contain a convoluted set of parts that are assembled to create the final product. These parts are all input costs to make the iphone.

So now we covered burries disclosed positions that are worth an estimated amount of 168 million dollars. But with that being said where is the remaining 123 million dollars that very manages by using the process of elimination. I was able to find out where burry is betting his remaining funds. There are six places where bury could be investing the remaining funds he could be holding cash betting on forex exchanges purchasing commodities in farmland shorting stocks shorting crypto or betting against bonds the reason why i listed these options is because they do not have to be disclosed to the public through sec filings.

The options that i listed are basically the only places where bury could be investing his funds. We can rule out cash because billy expects cash to lose its value at a frightening pace. So what about the forex exchange. The forex exchange is a global marketplace where people exchange government backed currencies also known as fiat currencies forex trading would involve betting that certain fiat currencies will outperform others for instance investors could bet on the chinese rent outperforming the dollar by exchanging.

The dollar for the yuan this would allow the investors to exchange a rent back for the dollar. If the yuan goes up in value while the dollar is depreciating at a fast pace. It has actually been doing well on the forex exchange. This is because other countries are printing.

Even more money than the us dollar. Bury explained how when you see mention of the strong dollar. The almighty dollar please remember this is only in relation to other fiat currencies the dollar is not at all strong and it is not getting stronger. We all see it every single day in the prices of everything the issue with the forex exchange is that you have to bet on a currency outperforming.

Another and like bury stated himself. He can't short the dollar because it's relatively strong compared to other currencies. The next option is for ability to purchase farmland or commodities like gold or silver. We know that commodities and farmland are historically a strong hedge against inflation.

But that's only when there is moderate inflation. Bury explained how historically this chart shows good places to be during significant but relatively moderate inflation in a modern hyperinflation best assets might be somewhat different in venezuela. Argentina. Zimbabwe etc.

Even farmland wasn't safe from confiscation or punitive taxation. During hyperinflation governments. Typically try to maintain their currency's power to prevent a revolt because a drop in a currency's value puts the government in a weak position. The government typically taxes or confiscates assets that are performing well to save its currency's value in december president enugo chavez expropriated.

This 4 000. Hectare cattle ranch from one of venezuela's wealthiest families burrie expects double digit inflation rates for the dollar which would put the us dollar in a tight position burry. Further explained. This concept in another tweet by saying in an inflationary crisis.

Governments will move to squash. Competitors in the currency arena dollar. Sign. Bitcoin gold with these tweets in mind.

We know that burry likely doesn't hold any commodities or farmland. Taking on the extra risk of taxation or confiscation simply doesn't make sense for bury. The next option for bury is for him to short stocks considering that brewery thinks stock prices will crash it's likely that he's shorting speculative stocks burry once stated that top to bottom microsoft. Traded 52 exit shares outstanding by.

2002. 33 x by 2009. And. 05.

X so. Far. Amazon. Traded.

57. X. By. 2002.

66. X. By 2009. And.

09. X. So. Far.

Jpm. Traded 3x. By. 2002.

59. X by. 2009 and about 07. X.

So far etc. Enough takes. Time. Michael bury.

Clearly thinks that stocks are going to fall dramatically in the short term. So it would be logical to assume that he is shorting stocks he once held tesla put options before exiting in october 2021. The hints point toward the fact that he likely switched over to outright shorting instead of put options. This is because the options premiums became too expensive in the same month that he exited tesla put options where we tweeted meaningful cognitive dissonance in the market 80 90 100 implied volatility on puts two years out make roughly one extra money on at the money put if the underlying remarkably goes to zero in two years.

Did not used to be a thing now relatively common despite the all time bull market. The options premiums were so high that even if stocks like gamestop went to zero in two years. Put. Option holders would still only be up by one hundred percent.

That is just ridiculous. Because shorting is a much better option in that situation shorting. A stock gives you the same upside of 100 while having no expiration date. Shorting is when you borrow shares of a stock and sell them on the open market short sellers will then have the goal of buying those shares back at a lower price for example.

Let's say. I sold 100 shares of a stock for 40 euros and bought it back for 35 euros. Because i bought the shares for 5 euros. Cheaper.

I am now making 5 euros for every share. Which is 500 euros in profit. So instead of buying stocks at a low price and selling them at a high price short sellers do the inverse by selling stocks and trying to buy them back at a lower price this gives you a maximum upside of 100. If the stock falls to zero.

Which was exactly the same as the upside for gamestop put. Options buried likely switched over to shorting tesla. Stock instead of buying put options for this reason in late april of 2022. Berli ranted on those who hate shore sellers by saying if i had pledged the majority of my shareholdings to support personal loans.

I might hate short sellers too but short sellers on a stock have nothing zero zilch nada to do with the success or failure of the underlying business. The fact that burri is ranting against short selling haters shows that he is likely shorting stocks himself. Even though. We don't know for sure.

There is a high probability that burry switched over to shorting stocks instead of buying put options. The fifth option is for billy to be shorting. Cryptocurrencies michael brewery is bearish on cryptocurrencies due to their speculative nature burry is looked into shorting crypto before. But he has decided not to in an email to cnbc in late 2021 burri explained.

I've not been shorting cryptocurrencies at all and i'm not now. I believe that cryptocurrencies are in a bubble. And that most in it do not understand it well this allows us to rule out shorting crypto as a possibility the last option for bury is for him to short bonds. Luckily for us buried basically confirms that he was shorting bonds in a tweet.

He posted bury tweeted. In late 2021 for what it's worth i've never shorted any cryptocurrency. This is my third bubble and the biggest. I've learned a thing or two 30 year treasuries on the other hand shorting through 30 year.

Treasury bonds is likely by far buries biggest bet so why would burley short 30 year bonds the 30 year treasury bond yield is currently at roughly 3 percent so bond investors will receive a 3 annual return if they hold the bonds for the full 30 years. Bond. Yields and bond prices. Are inversely correlated.

So an increase in the bond yield. Would lead bond prices to fall. Generally speaking a rise in interest rates. Affects long term bonds.

More a 10 year bond price will fall much more than a six month bond. As interest rates rise the relationship between the bond yield. And the bond price is an exponential relationship. The blue line in this graph is what people might think the relationship between yields and prices is in actuality.

The red line shows the true relationship. Which is exponential this relationship is called positive convexity by shorting 30 year treasury bond yields burley is shorting the most volatile bond michael bury is known for taking on unprecedented levels of risk. He literally invented an entirely new security called credit default swaps in 2008. This new security allowed him to return 166 percent to his.

Investors in the first quarter of. 2008. Right we bought basically short 84. Billion of credit default swaps related to mortgages or financial.

Companies. You must have been pretty confident that this thing was going to blow up we had a giant bet for us and and i was extremely confident in the outcome in august of 2021 brody purchased put options on the ishare's 20 plus year treasury bonds etf before exiting later that year. Because options premiums are expensive buried likely switched over to credit default. Swaps.

And outright. Shorting. Credit. Default tops.

Are like insurance. For bonds. If you buy earthquake insurance for your house you have to pay a monthly fee to insure your house the insurer will make money every month as long as there is no earthquake. However in the case that there is an earthquake the value of your earthquake insurance will suddenly be worth thousands of times more than the amounts you paid credit.

Default swaps are like buying insurance for bonds. As long as the bond doesn't default then investors have to keep paying the monthly insurance bill. If the bond defaults then the credit default swaps. Ensure the value of the bond.

Just like how earthquake insurance is valuable during an earthquake credit default swaps are extremely valuable during a bond market crash bury made hundreds of millions by buying credit default swaps in the 2008 recession now. He believes he can make substantially more because. The government can't bail. Out companies like in 2008.

Burley. Tweeted. Regarding residential mortgage backed security credit default swaps ancient history. But because my investors revolted.

I was completely out of the trade before any bailouts and i hated the bailouts. Too aig should have been allowed to fail and goldman sachs. With it today's narratives would be very different bury got lucky last time because he was forced to sell his credit default swaps. Before the government bailed out vast arrays of companies that being said he knows that given the current political narratives.

The financial infrastructure won't be billed out for the second time this brings us to the possibility of bury buying credit default swaps on corporate bonds corporate bonds are bonds that are tied to a corporation corporate bonds tend to carry higher interest rates due to the increased possibility of a default in comparison to the us government during the 2008 recession burley purchased credit default swaps on mortgage. Backed securities. Because he believes that the housing bubble would pop now he believes that the traditional financial infrastructure will fall apart. So it wouldn't be far fetched for him to be shorting banks through credit default swaps in addition to credit default swaps.

Bury is also likely shorting 20 plus year. Treasury bond etfs like ticker symbol tlt. This is because the option's premiums were too high. So he had to exit his put options on bonds.

We talked about how berry is most likely shorting bonds and stocks with his remaining assets. But he could actually be shorting a person as well this might be unconventional. But burglary was once holding put options on arkhan vest. He tweeted in late 2021 in 1929 1973.

2000 and 2008 a better short than any company was the guy who would be buying all the way down burie is publicly spoken against kathy wood. The ceo and cio of arkhanvest. He also once held put options on 31 million dollars worth of arkhan vest shares. It's possible that burry is shorting arkhan vest.

Through a short position rather than put options burrie always makes contrarian. Bets and his latest holdings are no. Different he turned 17. Million.

Dollars to 270 million dollars by investing in gamestop before everyone else his bets are so strange and lucrative that the sec always investigates him for potential wrongdoings buried knows that his shocking predictions are going to become true and movie directors have been eager to get him on for the big short two someone asked buried in june 2021 have they contacted you to make a new movie. Yet. Mike brewery responded by saying believe it or not yes. This tweet will self destruct in while the world is still asleep buried recently made the boldness of its predictions.

He now believes that world war. 3. Is about to start following the shocking invasion of a new country this part is just one part of a series of videos covering bury's audacious predictions. According to buri.

We're only halfway towards the end of the pain. And there's an entirely new phase of compression that's coming soon so hit that subscribe button to make sure you don't miss out on my next video covering bury's most appalling prediction. I noticed that 84 percent of you aren't subscribed yet so please hit that subscribe button as it's completely free and you can always unsubscribe at any time. If you enjoyed this video.

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