Holy Smokes Michael Burry. Just a flip-flopped We also got some new data this morning on what's going on with consumers GDP and inflation. We'll talk about that in this video in just a moment. But first, Holy Smokes, What a flip-flop this was Michael Burry on January 31st when he tweeted the word sell period, he tweeted that after an incredible December uh sell-off which was probably driven by substantial tax loss harvesting in fact, Nancy Pelosi and her husband took over two and a half million dollars of losses on companies like Salesforce Tesla PayPal just to dump out of the market, presumably to tax us Harvest to offset other potential gains that they had since usually their signal they're the signal of what to do.

They did some big tax loss harvesting too. A lot of Tesla investors probably tax loss harvested leading Tesla to hit its bottom in December and Michael Murray after the January recovery tweets sell. Well, guess what? Michael Burry has tweeted today and it is a total flip-flop A complete flip-flop from what he tweeted on January 31st Michael Murray Tweeted the following: I Was wrong to say sell Holy Smokes Oh I hope you're not using Michael Murray as your financial advisor and even though I am a licensed financial advisor, I'm not trying to solicit your business I Don't do personalized Financial Advice: I Do run an act and actually manage ETF I have courses on building your wealth I have a real estate startup and I have affiliate links for like life insurance and free stocks linked down below. But more importantly, Michael Burry wrote I was wrong to say sell and Beyond suggesting that he was wrong to say sell and he just tweeted this as well.

He also tweeted the following with a chart coming from a Bloomberg story that we also covered this morning in the Meet Kevin report the Bloomberg story has to do with Buy The Dippers and Michael Burry tweeted going back to the 1920s, there has been no by the effing dip generation like you congratulations and he shows these blue charts on the right side, the blue bars being higher than at any point in history and it says the S P 500's average return following down Days by year. this is the second best year for the Buy the Dip strategy. Now this was uh, all in an article by Bloomberg talking about how by the dippers are back and forth where the stock market and especially the NASDAQ is now back in a bull market. We actually covered uh this this morning.

uh in our Meet Kevin report and you can see the section over here. look at this section. they're referring to The fear of missing out on the next big rally is leading to a replay of Dip buying impetus during the 2020 bull run. The S P 500.

Wow. Imagine comparing today to 2020 which was basically V-shaped recovery right? I Mean that would be a pretty sharp Nike Swoosh because this is the thing the recovery I think we get with a lot of volatility in it. But wow, the S P 500 has gained an average of 0.3 percent following any down days this year on Pace for the second biggest Rebound in data. going back to the Great Depression 1927.

that's the article Michael Burry. Uh, read. it was actually one of the front page articles this morning and apparently it convinced Michael Burry to tweet. I was wrong to say.

Well, so what does this mean for the Nike Swoosh and the recovery? Well, obviously it's pretty optimistic. This is fantastic news. Uh Michael Barry One of the biggest bears is actually coming out going damn okay. Well maybe I was wrong.

That takes something because he's not doubling down like most bears are doing. You go to like Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson what are they doing? They're doubling down on how basically we're going to hit new lower lows and instead when we actually jump over to look at the Nike Swoosh Uh, One of the things we're noticing is that every time we had rotated down last year, we wrote it. After a little bit of a rally, we rotated down to a new low. Look at that, we had pain in December of 2021.

Uh, the a couple years ago now. Geez, Well, a little more than a year ago. Anyway, we rotated down, had a little rally, plummeted lower, had a little rally, plummeted lower, had a little rally, plummeted lower, had a little rally plummeted lower, Now what's happening? How to Rally Stabilized Had a rally, did not make a new low. Now we're back in rally.

It's an interesting Trend and I think it's the setup for the Nike Swoosh recovery. This is why we do the fundamental analysis we do in the course member live streams. So exciting. But let's talk about some of the data that just came out this morning and what did potentially means going forward, especially as it relates to what we just heard from.

Michael Murray Now we gotta talk about GDP and jobless claims that just came out. These and this data just came out. We got initial claims for jobless data coming in at 198 000 jobless claims. the expectation was 195.

the more jobless claims we get, the more of a sign that maybe some of the impacts of higher rates are starting to hit. The last report was 191. we were expecting 195. We got 198..

continuing claims unfortunately, though. well, I guess good for the individual, but not so great for necessarily the economy came in low. The estimate was 1.7 mil. We came in at 1.689 suggesting people were able to get right back into the labor market.

Uh, we did get GDP annualized quarter over quarter at 2.6 percent slightly lower than the survey and Last Read of 2.7 We also got personal consumption which has officially dropped Last Read 1.4 percent the current survey 1.4 percent. Current result: one percent. so miss on personal consumption GDP Price Index stable at 3.9 percent. That is consistent with the prior and the survey core Pce quarter over quarter.

That's the quarter measure of the personal consumption expenditure that is not to be confused with the data that we get Friday morning on the 31st, which would be the month over month and year-over-year figures for Pce quarter over quarter Pce actually Rose a little bit to 4.4 percent, up from the priority to 4.3 and the survey of 4.3 So what do we make of this? Well, somewhat mixed data here. a little bit higher on the core inflation numbers here on uh, on the quarter over quarter, GDP a little slower than expected and Retail and personal consumption coming in slightly lower than expected. We don't necessarily like that because what we want to do is avoid a recession while at the same time inflation comes down. We just got the opposite right.

We got a little bit more inflation and a little bit less GDP and a little bit less retail sales. so we actually went. Today's these numbers that just came out a little closer to recession a little further away on the battle for ending inflation and the inflationary fears. So I would say not fantastic.

I'd like to take a quick look to see how the market is responding to that. These are not horribly different though from expectations, so they're pretty close, and the market initially had a slight red Candlestick on the NASDAQ. We slightly red candlesticked over uh to the Uh, in this case 200 minute moving average. However, we immediately green candle sticked right after that on the NASDAQ so it looks like the market is is willing to accept more patience here.

The same thing happened over here on the 200 minute candle for the S P 500. Another place that we can look will be the uh, let's look at yields. so let's see how yields are moving. Specifically, bonds looks like bonds basically flat.

On this news here, we've got the tenure sitting at 3.572 If we compare this to the two-year treasury yield, we'll be able to look for an inversion of the yields curve and remember it's generally the subsequent re-steepening of the yield curve. Uh, that is the most painful two-year sitting right now at 4.126 so still inverted on the twos tens over here. And a lot of folks say that you get the inversion basically right when you hit recession. So something to keep in mind there.

Let's take a look at what Wall Street is suggesting about this. uh, and potentially also CNBC. So let's give them a quick listen here. Right here Yesterday and today.

Um, all right, how's the days in? Okay, you have any room service? Um, No. Joe We're at a pretty decent hotel here. You know we've been doing this for a while. when you jump over to CNBC sometimes they just talk about nonsense.

Uh, anyway, so uh, no real comments from Wall Street just yet. Uh, let's see if they actually have any from on. CNBC yes. otherwise I'll go to Bloomberg why don't they show up in JavaScript I Think the story.

Joe whether I came up with at the very beginning and seems to be the case right now is they seem to be getting jobs? Or maybe it's just the extended Uh benefits package makes them ineligible for jobless claims. But but the idea that we're still under after how many weeks running now uh is really quite remarkable. You would have thought we would have had a surge yet. And it's interesting.

the FED just can't get that job market to loosen up the way it wants to give me the I know there's going to be a first read on first quarter. GDP Give me your preliminary read on first quarter. GDP Yeah, we're seeing like we're seeing like a two percent. I think was the latest Joe In fact I was just trying to look it up before because I was inside listening to Sheila Bear.

but but uh, CNBC Update: yeah, former chair bear who is, uh, really good. But but the the last thing I saw Joe was there two percent. So so that recession that everybody thought was going to happen in the first quarter isn't going to happen and I don't think they're predicting it for the second quarter. It's down the road someplace and at some point.

Um, I Guess it happens in the sense that you have these inventories pull back. But but I Was talking to somebody last night who said they have a lot of retail clients and the retailers were preparing for this downturn. And of course, once you prepare for a downturn, sometimes that shock doesn't ever happen because you prepared for it. You got a frog in your throat.

that little froggy yeah, are you okay? that's actually a fan I don't know why they're so distracting I don't you know I think it's so interesting that I think fate loves irony Elon Musk says that I'm stealing a quote from him and how crazy would be if we don't actually get the recession like he just said. policeman just said we might not actually get the recession because people come to prepare for the recession. How weird is that? That would just be bizarre. that like, okay, all right, let's be a little more careful.

Wait, let's not go to the Moon here with our spending. Let's just be a little bit more relaxed and measured and then what ends up happening. People are relaxed and measured. You get slightly above, uh, zero growth.

but you don't get Negative growth. and then what? you don't get recession? That would be wild. and see. I think there's a lot of talk right now that the way that we get lower prices will really be like lower stock prices.

the start of the recession. That's what a lot of people are predicting and projecting right now. Uh, it's uh, worth looking at the five year Break Even inflation rate because the five-year break-even inflation rate is moving up a little bit. and the moving up of the five-year break-even inflation rate does potentially suggest the Fed's gonna have to talk that down again and really push us into recession to actually get that inflation down.

So we did have a softening there with the banking crisis of that five-year Break Even But now as the banking crisis is fading, you're actually getting uh The Five-Year break-even inflation rate Kind of try to move back up I'd like to see this trend continue. if I go ahead and draw a trend line here. let's see what we can draw. It's very difficult to kind of draw something solid here.

Let's see if I maybe go from over here here. Maybe maybe we could draw a trend right about here. We'd like to see this overall downtrend. Obviously, you know, in the big zoom out here it is.

But uh, it's a little problematic that we had this Spike over here and that was before the banking crisis. So the only thing that really recently lowered these expectations for inflation were the banking crisis. So not fantastic. Let's listen into a reaction over here on the data.

even if Silicon Valley had been in the stress test for real last year rather than their dress rehearsal with the scenario I Think they would have come out just fine. But what does that point us to That points us to the fact that the stress test has become a compliance exercise. It's become eminently predictable and you know, Becky I would be surprised if there weren't some if there hadn't been some voices in the FED over the last several years saying we need to be testing for increased interest rates, but just as supervision generally I think the stress test is has just weakened over the years. Yeah, and that's likely to continue to happen, You know, Joe Biden right now is talking about this idea of maybe punishing uh, the mid-sized Banks and the larger Banks but exempting smaller banks.

Credit unions are banding together, blaming Uh markets and saying, look, it's not fair to punish all the small Banks because if we collapse, it's not a big deal. we're small, but then at what point are you systemically important and that was supposed to be 250 mil, but apparently it was the smaller Banks like Silicon Valley Bank or Signature or Silvergate that were important enough to basically bail out. So it's interesting regarding this data that just came out. Uh, we do have a comment here that uh, quote data offers a little fresh insight.

There isn't much new insight from this morning's data releases. Jobless claims were pretty much bang in line with expectations. While there were some modest downside adjustments to stale Q4 GDP Figures, thanks to a downgrade of consumer spending estimates, core inflation was revised slightly higher. but that's pretty much ancient history now.

tomorrow's February Pce data will be much more relevant for the near-term fortunes of the market, but arguably even that data is stale after this month's turmoil. Ah, they basically just put salt on the Pce release tomorrow. Come on man, that's not cool I Want to cover the Pce tomorrow, because that way I can remind you about life insurance and and free stocks linked down below and an ETF and course member live streams and my real estate startup. whatever.

It's actually an interesting point though. I mean could it be that inflation data from February is stale because of the banking crisis? I mean I Suppose Do like, do normal people spend less money because of the banking crisis? We know businesses do. but do regular people really care I don't know. Uh I I Suspect not.

but uh, that gives you the numbers that came out this morning. Why? The numbers from this morning could be a nothing burger. What? they could potentially signal I Like Leesman's argument about, wow, it seems like the FED just can't do anything to get jobs down because people are just finding new jobs. Kind of reiterates the idea of a tight labor market I suppose.

but at least you could still check out the links down below and support your favorite Channel on YouTube As always, appreciate you coming back and subscribing sharing the videos. Try to provide the best value possible. Thanks so much! thank you.