Holy shmoly folks welcome back to another market. Closing live stream, get this thumbnail up here, uh wow! We are just in this position of uh. It feels like perpetual pain with with very very limited uh upside rallies yeah. We we kind of get this uh, exhausting feeling.

No, i needed a bit better thumbnail than that the eye roll there. We go. That's perfect, okay, good uh. The thing about this is there's so much anxiety in the markets with with no consistent data that, to some degree it makes sense that markets are so uh.

Convictionless that we get these these short-term bumps in the market and they're they just consistently have been followed by new lows. Uh more pain could absolutely come to the market. Take a look, though, at the uh one minute here on the s p: 500: it's actually trying to go positive on the day, which is really incredible, because we saw some substantial pain uh earlier. Let's go ahead and get the indices up here, a substantial pain earlier in the markets uh.

We are consistently seeing this this bizarre activity of look at that. The dow down 0.71. All of these this morning were down three quarters of a percent the nasdaq swung crazily. Today but it looks like it's trying to come into a close, actually up, half of a percent and nothing safe.

Here i mean folks were diving into jp morgan for the safety aspect that oh financials in the banks are going to be great. If interest rates go up but but even jp morgan has gotten a recent sell-off. Here's your day chart on jpmorgan uh there is, there is no kidding. The fud is real.

There is a substantial substantial amount of fun, and this is really what you actually have, and this is fact you are in a fod market, a market of fear, uncertainty and doubt you have got uh companies that are phenomenal companies that are growth based companies that are Innovative companies in their space that are unique in their space selling off mostly the smaller caps. Let's go ahead and do a small cap search here, so we're going to sort by small caps here, let's see small caps. Here we got about six screens on the first page: well, maybe about six screens on the next page. Ah, not that bad.

Maybe some things have started rotating a little bit, but generally the smaller caps have been the ones that have been losing uh yeah. Okay, a little bit more green on the large caps, but but still actually, maybe even relatively balanced day, but look at the core, the core 5 right here. All of these are up apple, microsoft, alphabet, amazon, tesla, uh and then you've even got a video over here. All of these guys up uh at least a third of a percent berkshire hathaway's up facebook's up all of the megas are up and and that's what's really exploding these these um.

These indices is apple, microsoft, alphabet, amazon, tesla, facebook, berkshire and nvidia. The mega caps are just being seen as the perfect balance of a flight to safety of growth and of companies that will always survive see. Companies like just as an example lucid, are going to run into times in the market where they have to go to the stock market and raise substantial amounts of money to continue the production. This means they're going to have to do bond offerings.

They're gon na have to dilute shares. They're gon na have to do something to raise money, and if the market falls and they have to raise money, they could be in a position where tesla was in 2015 2017, where, where you were really close to this near bankruptcy point for tesla uh and that Same thing could happen to a lot of stocks. That's unfortunate so uh lower growth companies are sorry higher growth companies with lower earnings today are less insulated from those risks, whereas the odds that tesla or apple or microsoft or any of these companies are really going to go bankrupt is relatively low. Uh over the next decade, the odds that some small caps are going to go bankrupt is substantially higher.

And that's why, in this weird transitionary market, you have so much pain on on small caps, uh and uh, and you really have to almost diversify away completely from the smalls right now, because they're just continuing to get absolutely hammered and destroyed. Now some things are at such low levels to where it makes sense to ask yourself like hey like: does it make sense to just huddle at this point uh or or will things keep going down? Nobody knows that's the thing like look at smile direct, it's up! 13 percent today, but if you're enjoying this 13 game on smile direct, it probably means you're you're down from either four dollars or six dollars, or you know previously, uh closer to twelve dollars right. These are some massive cuts. Uh in pricing here so take some substantial gains to actually get some excitement.

Euphoria back to the market, unfortunately uh, looking at some individual stocks, like particularly the losers here, boston beer, beyond meat, really rotating down heavily toast down six and a half percent purple innovation down. Six point: eight percent nordstrom in the retail space down shift down again matterport 1337. As much as i love that number here's a here's, a metaverse play on a massive discount right now i mean here this i feel like fair value, is around twenty dollars for matterport. So i've always loved metaport when it traded between 18 and 20 18 to 22..

I think that's like your fair value range. This is like metaverse insane hype. Massive insanity right. This is just unfortunately, full on drawdown here.

At this point i mean you are you're massively down uh now in a stock like matterport. The same is true of a firm, i mean just getting whacked, i mean these are companies that did phenomenally in november and just absolutely getting destroyed here. 69 dollars. I mean all of the partnerships that you had to get have essentially lead to euphoria, for something like a firm just getting destroyed, and it's mostly because these companies are not expected to create a profit for years out into the future.

And that is what happens when you have newer companies, innovative growth companies and unfortunately, they are slapped in the face with the reality of well. We are a stock market who wants earnings and that's why you're seeing uh you know so much of a sell-off, especially in the smaller caps. But let's look even the end phase over here and face down another third of a percent: end phase, profitable company high margin you're in the energy space you're in the uh solar inverter space. I mean phenomenal companies here, but uh uh.

Oh, how interesting here hold on a sec? This update just came in treasury. 10-Year note, futures shorts hit the largest level since february of 2020 yeah, and this is uh. This is, i think, what really sets us up - and i know this so some people sounds potentially somewhat delusional but uh. I i honestly think we are probably going to be setting up for one of the most massive short squeezes in not just the bond market, but in a lot of these smaller cap stocks that are so heavily shorted.

I mean think about that. Let's plan this out: if the okay, here's here's how this will work, let's write this down. So if the 10-year is at its high short wow since feb of 2020 - okay - that's that's really big! Oh my gosh! Okay, so high is short since 2020. What does that mean? Okay? Well, we sell bonds prices go down and yields go up.

Okay, so if we're at the highest short level since 2020 on the 10-year and right now, the 10-year is trading for oh wow. It really jumped today holy smokes 1.786 yikes. It was at 1.7 yesterday, okay, so we're just under i'm, going to put 1.8 right so to get to 1.8, took getting to the highest short level since 2020.. That's insane - and this is all on fears - that interest rates are going to go up right.

Well, when the fed raises rates in uh march and april, let's call that right here, probably march and the fed raises rates. What happens if then, we start seeing an inflation inflect down and all of a sudden people start covering their shorts on 10 years and small caps? Could we potentially get a rally? My belief is yes, i believe that the the massive amount of shorting is really just euphoric speculation and reverse, and it's basically anything fundamentals aside that uh that has low earnings today or a higher valuation short sell, sell, sell and uh with the amount of liquidity that We have on the sidelines. I would not be surprised to see some form of a massive short rally at some point this year, no guarantees, unfortunately, but unless we go into a recession where these shorts will get proved right, which i don't think we're going to recession. I believe we'll end up seeing these shorts cover substantially and see a nice short squeeze in a substantial amount of not only companies but also the bond market, so uh and you could really have it happen.

It could happen. Vice versa, i mean you could see a short squeeze in the bond market trigger a short squeeze in the stock market. You could see a short squeeze in the stock market trigger a a short squeeze in the bond market. You could see that vice versa approach daily for the last 1.5 years, very consistent challenge on the tops and lows on qqq.

Let's take a look for the past three years. You can track very consistent challenge between the lows and tops of qqq on the daily okay. Let's, let's try to take a look at that, so really you're talking about drawing okay! Let me just go to the weekly here, because that's going to compress this a little bit more uh, this is the qqq you're saying last three years, which would take me to 2019 would take me to about right here. I'm gon na try to draw what you're describing hmm.

I don't see that very consistency. Oh unless i cut out this low here, no yeah i'm having trouble drawing that. I'm not i'm not seeing what you're seeing maybe maybe a little bit of clarity on that one. Uh that that's could be interesting.

Ah people are bashing me in the matterport stock. Twitch form good. That means it's time to buy. Let the little weenie baby get out of the stock.

Please, please everybody! Please sell matterport! Okay, sell mad report, that's it! You heard it here: first sell matterport uh, let's see okay, what's 1.5 years, everyone's saying 1.5 years, oh 1.0, 1.5 years, oh instead of oh instead of three years. Oh maybe i mistook that okay, okay, okay, 1.5 years, would actually take us to about mid-2020 over. Here. Oh, that might make more sense - let's see here - ah huh, okay, hmm yeah! Look at that! It's not bad! I could probably even lower that a little bit and go over here.

Look at that! That is not bad! That is not bad uh! That's that's a good one that makes sense. Uh. Look at that channel! Isn't that something? That's really cool! So look what you had over here! Folks, uh! Let me let me draw these to a similar endpoint. It just makes a little more sense here here there we go yeah, but then it looks confusing.

I'm not gon na do that i'll. Do this there we go. Okay! So look at what you have here: uh you have the dip of the election. The pre-election fear right here, uh and then the rebound you almost go into this overs overbought territory.

Excuse me overbought territory here and then you get the fall of the first inflation fears. In february march of 2021, the may crash summer rally october crash uh september october, crash november, late october november rally, and then you get the december and january crap. That has been very uh very disgusting. This is not bad uh.

This is a very, very interesting uh chart and uh dips are not over until moving 200 or, if that's the next step calls uh. I haven't seen us go to the moving 200. I mean i mean look at the chart. The moving 200 is, is the red line here still need to touch the 200-day moving average.

Where does it ever touch the 200-day moving average? You know it's. It's it's trapped because of uh. It's i think it's it's way weighted down because of the recession. Uh.

You know what i'll do is. Let me try i'll try. Maybe a hundred day for you uh. Let me go to the 100.

There you go see. The 100 gives you a little more. The 150 might actually be uh. Our low touch point.

Let's try that hey look at that the 150 is about what it bounces off there. You go. Look at that. The 150 almost perfectly aligns with that bottom channel.

That's nice, that that is exciting! That's exciting! That's that's! Nice! Uh! You know what shout out to whoever donated five dollars to say that that's cool, a bunch of y'all are like this is why i'm i have a large position in qq. This is why i trade qqq uh yeah yeah. That is that's amazing. I i have not noticed that until now.

Well, because you all told me, i can't, i can't see everything uh, but uh wow. Every one of these points was a point that went shopping and it's done very well. For me and i'll tell you, it is very hard to keep buying stuff when it just keeps going down it's the hardest thing ever. It is so much easier to just sell and stop the pain, because when, when you, when stocks go down, there's literally nothing, you can do you.

You can't fight the stocks, so you have to flee good job uh shout out to nick for spamming the 1.5. Yes, correct you, you, you get a shout out as well: uh heard matterport lock up on the expiration. This is true. This is true.

You do have a lock up expiration of about 15 uh in about four days on matterport. That is true. Dollar cost average. That's right about a dip in dca all right folks.

What do we got going on today, tesla's up 1.7, so my portfolio has hope. I refuse to look at my portfolio on a day like today, though. Actually, i rarely look at my portfolio. I just i make my long-term bets um.

The mad report is very disappointing, but whatever you know what's actually kind of wild is we went back to some of these old lines? Isn't that crazy? I have a lot of lines drawn for matterport, but they they all have their individual meanings. It's not like they're, just randomly drawn uh. Oh wow, that's crazy! That is interesting to see where the wicks went. The wick went very, very close to my 1514 line here.

See the wicks really playing the lines here, look at that playing the line a little bit of excitement over here. I don't think i have anything up here, no yeah, because this was just massive euphoria, and this is on the week chart. Let's go to the day. Chart yeah look at this sat in that channel for a little bit.

Okay, so let's go ahead and look at a little bit. What do we got? We got seven minutes to close. Okay sounds good s. P went positive nasdaq up about a half percent dow at 0.52.

He doesn't mean that doesn't mean what who doesn't mean what i don't know. What mark and best are home sales tumble. I talked about that this morning. Omicron is threatening the survival of u.s restaurants, yeah.

No kidding goldman's most elite rank in millions of dollars in one-time payouts, families face devastating hit on monthly child tax credit ending uh. Well, i mean it was one time stimulus, that's like implying they face a devastating hit when the stimulus checks stopped coming like we knew it would stop coming. Hmm all right, not much here it is a wild week. Okay, what else housing correction flattening? No, i think neither i think if anything, the lack of homes for sale helps push up prices even more.

It's not that's, not sustainable, but yeah. Yes, do pick stocks uh not likely to go bankrupt. Well, capitalized stocks, it's easy to buy stocks when they're going down. It's also easy to take profit when they're euphoric, it's super hard not to buy back too early having cash on hunt is the hard part.

I don't know about that uh. I i honestly think for most people it's very difficult to buy stocks when they're going down because you buy and then like. Let's say you bought end phase at 200 and now it's at you know, you know then went to 180 and you bought the dip. And now it's at 160., then it's go or 140.

Even then, it's like wait a minute like. Oh, this sucks, dca sucks right and i think that ends up turning people off uh. I actually think more people are likely to fomo in when the market's rotating up. No, no space stocks come on way too early to even have a remote chance of profitability.

Yeah people do start second guessing themselves and their conviction changes when a stock's going down yolo on small caps and crypto, it's definitely a yolo. Oh yeah, yeah. Okay, all right! This is not much insane going on here, newswise, let's just look at some individual stocks here and see where's the ugliness and what's going on towards the close okay, let's see what we got so uh wind resorts, macau, uh, obviously, news helping push las vegas sands and Wind resorts you've got x-ping motors up four percent, wonder how baba is doing today. You know the chinese stocks come up nicely off of a little bit of a bottom uh pretty flat today on baba palantir, pretty flat spy is pretty flat.

I can't believe arc actually went flat today. I mean it hit all-time lows again here since since well uh, when how when was the last time we were like 77 bucks, it's not all-time lows but low since wow july of 2020. Oh my gosh, that's insane! So far hit another low today also so, if i hit 12.66 uh google's up about a half percent and uh tesla's actually rallying a little bit into the clothes at 1.78, that's not bad! Given some of the pain we've seen there. Remember you saying you wish more people said congrats.

Your favorite stock is on discount. Exactly it's. You know it's kind of like always buying hugo boss suits and then one day you walk in and they have this unexpected. 40 off sale.

You know like a coupon code link down below eat it up, uh downsides actually getting a little better here like a firm, not down as much. I believe as it was. Where was it, i just saw it a firm 4.6 yeah, no, never mind. Maybe i was confusing that beyond uh matt earth jp morgan's not really recovering either beyond meat, had a little bit of a euphoric run in the last few days, it's recovering into the clothes a little bit, but look at beyond meat.

Folks, uh last few days it's been rallying off of 58 and now it's trying to pull down again a little bit two minutes to the close btc yeah. Let's look at btc, you know, i think earnings season could be a big catalyst too. Will earnings season give the market some confidence, maybe maybe not it would suck. If you got look if you got bad earnings on top of the pain we've already seen the last two months, it's over uh, but i don't think that's gon na be the case.

I think we're gon na have a boom time for earnings. It's gon na be fun all right all right. What do we got here? Btc, 43, still trying to get back to that 44 level. Mega caps are the ones leading the day.

It's probably the only reason. You've actually got the spy up again sort by the the big caps here and look at that apple, microsoft, alphabet, amazon, tesla, facebook, berkshire nvidia. It's your some of your literally your biggest one, two three four five: six. Seven eight companies on my watch list the biggest ones, look at the nasdaq 100 challenge channel.

I don't know how easy it is to pull that up over here. Nasdaq, ah, is it the qqqa or is it the qqqe? I usually don't look at the nasdaq 100. I'm gon na assume this is it though yeah see this this one's not not as beautiful of a channel all right anyway, uh disney, i like disney all right, let's go ahead and look at the closings at the bottom of the list, along with real estate. Today, it's actually real estate and then financials materials industrials all weaker.

It looks like we're going to go out with a decline for the week for the s p, 500, nasdaq endow, but a gain on the day and the nasdaq closing at second highs up 90 points or six tenths of a percent, a real rebound where we're seeing Strength from microsoft, tesla, facebook, apple and netflix, of course, this hour announcing it's raising prices, all right so uh. What do we get? Dow jones ending the week down point or well ending the day down: 0.56 s, p up 0.08, nasdaq, 0.59, russell 0.14, so tac. Actually, getting a little bit of that by the dip, probably mostly big tech, given given what we're seeing here on the market but boy, oh boy, what pain in the markets? Folks, crazy, crazy, crazy pain in the markets uh mostly amongst smaller caps and tech stocks, build-a-bear toast purple jpm beyond meat, matterport, boston, beer, game, stomp, amc, nordstrom, affirm, shift uber uh. Let's see what else here, evie go golly a lot of pain.

All these on that. I just mentioned hold on. Let me double check emc, because i can't see where it went. Yeah.

All of these just mentioned here down uh over three percent amc down exactly point: four: eight percent. Okay, so, with the exception of amc, amc wasn't over three percent yeah. It bounced back uh but wow uh. You know it'll be interesting to see if we end up getting any kind of uh short squeeze potential rally.

I think it's possible. It's gon na take a lot of hope. It's gon na take bonds, reversing especially since we found out that bonds are at the highest short interest that they've been in since feb of 2020, pretty wild a lot of pricing happening or a lot of in pricing or pricing in happening. That expectations are rate hikes.

Will crash the market? I think that crash is coming before rate hikes, it's sort of fear of uh and then hopefully a nothing burger, lucid, let's see lucid. How did this do? It's almost up. Two percent did well good awesome. I hope it rallies uh.

I think that's it. I think we got ta wish ourselves a nice three-day weekend, a break from the drama start with a beer like coke, with kevin beer with kevin yeah, no kidding we might have to transition to that, getting drunk with kevin yeah. How about that? Should we do that getting drunk with kevin livestream uh to make all the pain go away? We will just drink our pain away. It's all good! This is uh.

This is the kind of uh market that creates some of the best returns in the long term. If you buy, if you buy tequila with kevin there, you go oh yeah yeah all right! Well, folks, i got ta go. I got work to do appreciate. Y'All got ta work on some new course lectures in my fundamental spreadsheet and uh i'll see y'all in the next one.

Thanks.