Hey everyone meet kevin here, coming to you from florence, home of the medici family and well assassin's; creed, 2, climbed that building right there in that uh video game, which was epic anyway ton of updates. Today we got to talk about. We got to talk about market valuations, capitulation, banks, consumers, multiple different stocks, including jpm, tesla, rivie and sophia. Firm, we'll also talk catalysts, which means we'll be talking about monkey box and some of the crazy things happening this week and folks you're in luck.

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They come up, and so what a lot of people do is when they're crazy times they kind of just pop in, like hey kevin, got a question on this, and i can answer which is cool because you get lifetime access to that uh. As long as i do live streams, okay, so let's get into the content. So first, let's talk about capitulation and market valuation, so consumers staples consumer staples were supposed to be safe havens. Right, obviously not we know staples have gotten wrecked.

We saw what happened with walmart. We saw what's happened with target which is kind of a blend of staples and discretionaries. I personally think it's more of a staple, but anyway uh we we knew that discretionaries were going to get wrecked and they have, but what's crazy is retail keeps buying. Like literally every time one of these companies falls retail buys in fact, when we look at capitulation.

We've got a few numbers to look at right now. First of all, retail is diamond handling, uh overall walls and uh systematic funds. Mutual funds and hedge funds are liquidating systematic. These are sort of your economic uh, pro prognosticators.

The people kind of like me in january, like oh crap, things, are about to get a whole lot worse before they get better uh. Then you get sort of mutual funds generally they they tend to follow hedge funds. We talked about this in our last video mutual funds tend to follow uh hedge funds and all of them have essentially started lowering their positions to equities, so uh retail. However, instead continues to buy the dip target and walmart specifically heavily at the end of last week.

How about, though, in terms of which of the two folks twice as much buying in target by retail, compared to walmart goldman sachs, in addition to vandertrak, both are reiterating that retail are the ones diamond handing and actually buying the dips? Goldman sachs came out with this figure that 100 for every 100 that went into stocks the last 74 weeks. Only two dollars ended up flowing out of stocks, and they say this is specifically because retail capitation capitulation is really low. In my opinion, honestly, i'm kind of proud of this, because this is like really awesome now. I know it's been a really difficult period in the stock market, but i mean think about it.

That means people aren't making the mistake that everybody used to make during every kind of crash, which was panic and just sell and never get back in the hardest problem. The most difficult thing for people who sell is buying back in they almost never do they almost never do. This is why, in january, when i sold, i said i will be back within 60 days, so hey. I avoided six million dollars in losses.

I was able to make a few bucks. You know it was good. That doesn't mean i'm not hurting now right, but the point is like getting in and staying in so important for most folks and really the stats are showing that retail's doing a really good job. At this obviously hedges and everything they're dumping on us and it sucks, but take a look at this.

If you need some motivation for buying right now put call ratio lowest level we have seen in two years. That means call volume is exceeding puts right now by more than 2x. This tends to happen before big bullish reversals fingers crossed, though that might just be hopium. At the same time, though, listen to this forward multiples for the s p.

500, your forward price to earnings ratio for 12 months for the spx s p500 is sitting at 16.4, the five-year average for the s p 500 forward. Uh 12-month pe ratio is actually 18.6. So we're substantially under the five-year average and get this the 10-year average is 16.9, which we're also below at 16.4, which is really incredible, really shows you that valuations are actually great. I'm happy about this.

I mean to me. It just continues to reiterate that this is the time to buy, but folks we got to talk about some stocks here as well. We're gon na talk, jpm affirms so far we got ta talk tesla. We got a bunch of other news to talk about.

In other news things that moved the markets today, first, we heard that starbucks will officially be joining mcdonald's and leaving russia permanently. No franchises, no businesses see ya. Also. We had word from joe biden that uh the united states might consider getting involved in defending taiwan against china, implying that the united states military would get involved.

The white house later clarified that no, what joe biden actually meant was that we would just send weapons to support taiwan if they needed to, because remember, there are two kind of versions of the one china policy. This is not to be confused with the one child policy which expired. This is the one china policy, one china policy is the policy in which china believes there is only one china, and only one official regime that can regulate both china and taiwan. Obviously, taiwan seeks its independence and the us has its own one.

China policy and it technically is a rule of ambiguity where we're like we're just gon na stay out of this. But we respect - and you know uh will support taiwan, so we don't really officially recognize anything. So it's kind of like yeah yeah, one china, one shot. Taiwan keep doing.

You keep doing you, man more power to you, we'll send you weapons. It's like. Okay, come on biden at least get your story straight when you're gon na you're gon na talk to us, speaking of which uh biden's approval ratings, lowest levels that we've seen in this entire administration, we're now at 57 disapproved. This is up from 53 percent.

Just last month, not so great, but don't worry, congress isn't doing that great either. 48 of americans distrust congress to actually help them through this inflationary disaster that we have going on right now, biden has also commented on potentially changing the china tariff rules. These were tariffs that were imposed by donald trump and lifting those could be good news for certainly, chip supplies, uh and excess pricing on shipments between china and the united states, which could be good for bringing down some of those inflationary pressures, probably something they might want To consider doing before, midterms anyway, china is also working to stabilize their economy. China's now offering 21 billion in tax relief to companies and consumers to try to stabilize the economy, in other words, they're, making it rain with money to stimulate things again because they screwed things up when they rug pulled the real estate market last august, which really hit Everyone pretty hard november and december, especially the whole, ever grant crisis we've also uh this by the way now follows, of course, the lowering of lending rates for real estate last week and now creating a model for uh refinances.

This uh, just this week here in china, for real estate properties on the baby formula shortage before we get into some individual company updates a plane loaded with 70 000 pounds of baby formula landed in the united states biden says this should address about 20 15 of The nation's need needs for baby formula, but boy, oh boy, what a crappy situation to be in, especially since a lot of parents are now resorting to trying to make their own do-it-yourself formula yikes. I don't like hearing that we used formula as well. Not every woman can produce enough milk naturally, and so it's like there are reasons we need baby formula. It's kind of crazy, though that's gotten to this you'd think the government would be a little more raw proactive.

I know 70 000 pounds sounds like a lot, but uh. You know we need more than 15 supply all right. Let's get to some specific stocks, specifically tesla tesla plans to restore production at its shanghai plant, finally to pre-covered uh levels and actually above pre-covet levels. This is really good, especially since we've been waiting for tesla to get back to these uh levels of production.

They expect to be back to 2600 vehicles per day by tuesday, which is tomorrow. This is big because again, we have been at so substantially miserable level of vehicle production. We've been uh only well. We've only sold 1512 electric vehicles in china in april, which is terrible, that's down from 65 000 the prior month and we've probably only gotten about eight to sixteen thousand vehicles out of china when usually we're producing somewhere around 2200 per day.

And that's now attempted to be getting pushed to 2600 by tuesday, so it'll be nice to see that production come back to tesla, since the stock has come under substantial pressure and i'll increase this. But the uh elon drama with twitter now harassment claims which, by the way, it's an interesting note that was circulating - that's like. Why is it that it's kind of ridiculous, but why is it that for 25 years, elon musk has had a blemish-free record of uh? You know any kind of sexual assault allegations and uh all of a sudden. They say the day or within 24 hours of him, announcing that he's going to start voting republican.

Oh, that's it now all of a sudden he's a sexual predator twitter drama, though i don't know all right so uh anyway uh then we've also got news that giga berlin is adding a second shift. This is pretty incredible. On top of the fact that tesla is also hiring more researchers in giga shanghai, this is, despite all the shutdowns they're, still going to invest heavily in giga, shanghai and so the giga berlin. One is pretty neat, though, as well, because giga berlin's only been open now for two months, and so after two months now we're already seeing the second shift get added.

Usually when you get uh facilities at full capacity, you try to get to three shifts. So right now we have a 7 a.m to 3 p.m, shift and they're. Just now, opening the 3 p.m to 11 p.m, shift again, the first one being 7 a.m to 3 p.m. Now they're opening the 3 p.m to 11 p.m.

Only two months after the opening. It's honestly quite impressive, and the hope is that giga, berlin and giga austin can ramp a little quicker to where, hopefully, by the end of the year, we could still be on track for that one and a half million vehicles of production uh, maybe even slightly more As elon musk has alluded to so we'll see, it'd be great to have that 60 year-over-year growth, because uh tesla's peg peg ratio looking so juicy right now i mean it's under one if you believe that tesla can hit the 60 growth all right, this car is Getting loud, i don't know what they just turned on on that darn thing, and i don't think it's the engine, it's some other motor in there. Oh well, we'll just keep going here so banks, oh man, we got to talk about jpm, so jpm had a really big uh discussion, uh investor day presentation and jamie dimon. The ceo, a lot of people hold a lot of respect for him.

He came out and said: hey um. You know there are a lot of storm clouds right now facing our economy, but one of the things to know is that clouds can disappear and when clouds dissipate we're actually in a pretty strong economy. I kind of liked that analogy because he's right like there's so much freaking, fear there's so much saying. Oh, no, that's it inflation's not going to go down inflation's going to be entrenched forever.

I don't know man the bond market's, not saying that the five-year break evens are down to 2.9 10-year treasures at like 2.84 like big deal, i expect that to sit around probably under 3.25, but probably somewhere between 3 and 3.25, which we know that's gon na, be Bad for the real estate market, which will be bad for individuals, wealth, but in terms of these storm clouds of inflation, i don't know i'm pretty optimistic that uh the inflation's going to go down and i'll give you why this is not just my gut right now. We've got commodities experts talking to bloomberg substantially this morning about starting to see commodity supply outweigh demand. That's going to lead prices to come down. Morgan stanley released more research this morning.

This is all consistent by the way, with the earnings reports that we're seeing whether it's from tesla or from walmart or kohl's or whatever. We continue to see reports that inventory levels for consumer goods are substantially skyrocketing. Morgan stanley released a report just this morning, showing that inventory real inventory levels for consumer goods are now well above average levels and have started spiking the beginning of this year. So in other words, impact here kathy wood might be right.

We could actually see a substantial build-up of inventories which will lead to price reductions which we're already starting to see, especially in apparel, we'll, probably start seeing it in things like computers and actually, we've already started seeing price reductions in computers based on cpi. But we'll probably see those more broad based as well as tvs and other really just consumer discretionary goods to try to get people spending again. This is literally what is confirmed not only in the research reports but used car prices. Earnings reports - you name it, which is good, because if we can finally actually and meaningfully get inflation to come down, we're going to walk into the craziest bull market because we're going to have the most efficient companies ever plus low inflation.

I mean consider this jpm said that uh their bank productivity is now up 20. This is something that we've been talking, and this is compared to 2019.. This is something i've been talking about since the pandemic started. The pandemic is the greatest weeding force that we've ever had the pandemic allowed businesses to fire tons of people just hire back the best people, and now you have another sort of tightening period where it's like.

Oh no, okay, we did overhire a little bit. Let's just do layoffs again as you're, seeing it's sort of like amazon, now suggesting they're going to lease out extra warehouse space and not hire as many people, because they don't have as much demand. But the point is, you could keep the most efficient people right, and so you have these two cycles: the cycle of pandemic shock and now the inflationary shock where you're getting this. This massive filtering effect for these companies that all at the same time, are becoming substantially more efficient with their supply chains and their processes for making money like this is not the time to bet against america.

This is the time to bet on america and we're i'm so confident we're gon na look back in years and we're gon na be like damn. I wish i bought the dip every fracking day. Uh, you know, of course, then you get all the people in the comments and stuff you're catching a following knife. Oh see, i told you to sell you shouldn't have bought back in somebody got impatient man everybody's a freaking keyboard the comments.

Actually, there are a lot of you that leave really cool comments that are really nice and supportive, but some of them are just so jaded, so jaded, but anyway uh what else we have oh uh. So this is interesting, so jpm is launching paying for for debit cards soon. This is a really cool contrast to what we've been seeing in the credit industry, which is just basically people getting into buy now pay later for credit cards and debt right, but now offering that for for debit cards, kind of cool paypal's been doing this with credit Cards, expanding it to debit cards by chase, i think, is really smart uh, it's still different from what a firm does, and i think this is a very important reminder that, if you're investing in a firm one of the things, oh look, there's lauren, hey lauren! You want to be in my video she's just walking over. No, she doesn't want to be in my video anyway.

One of the things to remember with a firm is that you're in it one of the things to remember with a firm uh is they have a lot of merchant partnerships tons of merchant partnerships? This is what makes them special to where, rather than just doing, buy, uh buy now pay later and four you're doing it in over the time of you know, 12 months to 24 months to 36 months, and that's what makes the buy now paid later services. In my opinion, actually valuable, because if you think about it pay in four weeks i mean sometimes i think some companies are starting to do four months. But if it's paying four weeks, that's basically no different than just you know, buying something on a credit card and then just not paying your bill for six weeks, because it takes usually about an average of two weeks for the bill to come due, uh or or For this billing cycle to end, and then you have 30 days to pay it right, i mean that's kind of like by now pay later. If you think about it so anyway, uh that's uh, that's jpm, they're, also hiring thousands of so, in other words, do i really think that's a huge burn catalyst for a firm, not really, but i do think that some investors who don't understand that difference for a Firm are not going to like that announcement, so it could be something that weighs on a firm something that does weigh on another fintech.

More, i do think, though, is what jpm is doing to compete with sofi, so they're now going to hire thousands of wealth advisors up to 6 000 by 2025. This is more than they previously expected and in my opinion this is two things one. It's an opportunity for you to get a job. I mean think about it like if you need a job, become a wealth advisor.

What do you do just go past your series 65 or go find out what jpm is hiring for and uh go past the stupid series license test. It's not that freaking hard it'll. Take you like two months of study to do it and then boom you're good. So then you can get a job if you wanted to work your way up at jpm, and if you can become an investment banker geez you can make some big money.

I met some investment bankers they're, making like seven figures a year in investment, banking, no guarantees, but i'm just saying like there are huge opportunities, but this is, in my opinion, a direct attack on sofi sofi. Remember is a company that has wealth advising services built into all the things they do. I mean they do etfs, they do the stock platform. I think they've got crypto involved in there as well.

They do the student loans, the home loans. They do so many different things and wealth. Advising is one of them, because they're trying to provide everything that banks are doing and jpm's like. Oh no, we don't see any competition from fintechs, yet they don't provide all the stuff that we provide.

Meanwhile, it's like, i don't know jpm. It looks to me like y'all getting nervous. Are you seeing the competition heat up yeah so now they're trying to attract that talent right anyway? Uh? I think it's smart by jpm and and their prices have come down or their stock prices come down so much uh yeah i mean, i think, their book values like 80 bucks and they're like what 125 or something like that. It's no surprise they're up like six percent today, uh, it's not for me to invest in.

I i'm not a big fan of investing in banks, but i i think there can be money. There's money to be made as well as money be made basically buying anything at this point in the market. I think, but anyway, uh the federal reserve also released a document showing that deposit growth for uh consumer savings has kind of flattened er. This is kind of, in contrast with jpm's earnings, call a few uh a couple months ago, actually probably more like six weeks ago, when they were saying that oh, we still expect bank balances to go up this week a year so we'll see if that does end Up slowing that could be a little bit of a red flag.

Some people are pissed that legard isn't hiking rates high enough uh at the european central bank. She wants to go for two 25 basis. Point hikes people want more than this uh, we'll see what happens here and how that affects us in the united states. More important, though, is bollard.

That's our sort of perma-hawk he's come out and i suggested he wants to get the uh not only to above neutral, which we've been talking about last week, priced in being somewhere between 2.75 to 3.25 bullard wants to get to 3.5. If we got to get to 3.5 market still has to price in some more pain. So that's a little bit of a problem. Uh speaking about pain, peter lynch had a brilliant quote.

He says uh! Well, i'm just gon. Na paraphrase it here. He basically complained that people spend hours and hours of doing research on like what microwave to buy, but when it comes to doing research on their investments, they won't spend a lot of time at all and in fact they oftentimes refuse to spend money for advice and They end up uh spending too little time researching and actually understanding what it is that they're investing in uh, and so that is something that peter lynch says is one of the biggest mistakes is that it's very important to research and one of the things we talk About with course, members is that one of the reasons we do substantial research on companies that we're investing in is because, when we go through difficult periods of time, we feel we know them better than other people and that's not to try to brag or be right. It actually just gives us the confidence to get through the fud.

So when we hear the fud we're like. Ah, no, we know that fudd is actually fake news, not just bud, because it doesn't matter like here's, the actual truth right, the more research you do on a company, the more confident you can be of that, and so research is very important which, by the way, You don't want to be pennywise pound foolish if you still have not taken the download of my brain or anything that you can learn from me in the links down below seriously. Consider doing it look at it. You want to email me for a bundle code.

You can bundle the bundles are there, you can scroll down on the uh meet kevin.teachable.com website, you scroll down, look at all the bundles, but if you have more questions or whatever just shoot over an email kevinkiev.com all right, what else do we have on uh? We talked about inflation, oh yeah, rivian and monkey pox, okay, so rivien the suits are starting to suggest that riven man up seeing a lot of cancellations as individuals, kind of stop uh going all in on maybe more speculative or newer ev brands. Now i thought this was a really interesting argument and it's one that i had not considered before, but i kind of think about it now that would i want to make a bet on a newer company right now like remember, i bought a lucid. I bought that for my father-in-law, but that was also in a very bull market right. This was like in october or november or whatever we bought.

The car market was doing really really well, then, and the reason it's nice to buy a newer car in a bull market. When - and i don't really advocate buying cars either, i just it was just a gift, but anyway the reason i uh. You know you might want to buy from a startup in a bull market is because they can just raise more money and they can continue to make sure their customer service is great and their r d is great, but sorry but uh joking to myself here. But if you go into a recession and all of a sudden, they have to cut back on r d, they have to cut back on customer service or they face a bankruptcy risk.

Well, crap now you're, potentially stuck with a newer car and potentially a lack of customer service or less r d or less future development, at least in the near term, for technologies like full, self-driving or whatever right, and so that's a bummer. So basically, the note of the suits is like oh yeah. During a recession, people might actually be less likely to speculate on purchasing a car from a newer brand like again orivian because of those fears, the fears that they may not get the customer service or or the other benefits that they're seeking in the future. Because of recessionary times, and so that might lead to more cancellations, which would then also hurt, you know it kind of turns into like a self-fulfilling cycle, because then people cancel, then the company has less money and then company has less money and then they actually can't Do anything right? It's like the self-fulfilling recession.

Anyway, i thought that was really interesting and somewhat of a downside risk for the smaller ev companies, whether that's neo, lucid, uh, rivian whatever, but then again you know the market's already so low. It's like really. How much more can we go regarding monkey pox, the eu health administration says the risk of this spreading widely in the general population is very low. There's a lot of talk going around about airborne transmission for this and the possibility that this virus can survive in the air for up to 90 hours.

A lot of research right now seems to contradict this and say as says that uh, maybe, but the odds of you actually getting sick from the airborne transmission of monkeybox, is extremely low. That monkey pucks is something that is much more transmissible through bodily fluids or or close contact with other individuals. Excuse me, uh, not so much from uh from airborne transmission, which i think that's. The last thing we want to hear about right now is airborne transmission of anything tired of wearing masks.

All right then catalyst to watch this upcoming week. Here are some of them, so zoom in x-ping report, uh earnings today the atlanta fed president uh speaks at some point. Today we get minutes from the fomc on wednesday. You know pay attention for that.

Really, i think the big hints we're looking for is: where are they going to go? Are we going to go to 2.75? Are we going to go to 3.25 3.5? Remember the market's really been priced again somewhere between 2.75 and like three ish, so we'll see if, if we end up needing to go higher than that, i think the market will uh end up having some pain, although hopefully we end up getting a bullish fed u-turn. Once inflation actually meaningfully starts coming down, my guess, sometime between september and uh and october november, pay attention to covet cases in china. Obviously, the lockdowns in china are something that's definitely weighing on our markets. Numbers for u.s new home sales come out on tuesday, u.s gdp and initial jobless claims come out on thursday.

This will be an estimate for q2 gdp, so that'll be interesting to see university of michigan. Consumer sentiment on friday obviously pay attention to monkey pucks and capitulation, but otherwise, folks there you have it thanks so much for watching the video check out public link down below check out the programs on building your wealth and email. If you have questions regarding those bundles, remember you get lifetime access to all the new content in the programs as well. We've got a bunch of new content coming back as well.

When i get back to the office thanks so much folks and we'll see in the next one bye.