Hey everyone welcome back to another market, closing live stream, so we've got a really really interesting mix and dynamism happening in the market today. Not only do we have a lot of stocks really hitting off uh off of some of the lows where they have been, but we also have treasury yields up they're up at about 1.92 percent right now on the 10-year, which is quite high uh. Let me get the exact number here: yep 1.928, we're almost at two percent on the ten-year and conventional wisdom likes to say that, oh, when the ten-year treasury yield goes up, then uh, then tech stocks should go down right. Technically, there's no correlation between the two and today is one of those no correlation days, because treasury yields are up and inflation fears are up and tech stocks are up.

Uh, there's a good chance that a lot of the enthusiasm that we're seeing in the market today uh is really a a sign of the market sharing what the market is supposed to cheer, which is strong consumer spending and the appearance of a strong economy. The fact that we added seven hundred thousand jobs in uh mar in sorry uh november and december, compared to the prior estimates, not only makes me wonder first of all who's doing these estimates because it seems like every time the job estimates are wrong. That's a big revision, but not only did we get a seven hundred thousand dollar boo uh boost to jobs for november and december, but we had a big old beat on jobs today, which is phenomenal. This is really good news so and we saw labor force participation, tick up right, so we're seeing signs of a very, very strong economy, we're not seeing a lot of signs of demand slowing.

There are some signs and some areas of demand slowing, but most companies are telling us hey we're either close to prior forecasts slightly below or slightly above, but we're still seeing the booming spending go on, and this is where it's it's very difficult to try to determine. Hey are we in 2003 or uh, probably not because in 2003 the fed was accommodative. So i guess a better question would be: are we in 2004 or five or we in 2006 or the beginning of 2007 right and so trying to figure out like where exactly we are is difficult and on a day-to-day basis? We get this insane. You know we get these, these crazy updates.

We get these crazy down days in the market. The day-to-day is absolutely wild, but when we look at the data uh we're seeing a very strong economy which helps us avoid fears of stagflation. That's really important. We do not like the worst way to go is a stagflationary environment uh.

The the only downside, though, is we're seeing inflation pressures continue to persist. Bank of england says inflation pressures are persisting, no signs of inflation pressures peaking other than maybe in the used car sector. Uh, every company talking about pricing, power and pricing strength, more price increases coming the jobs report this morning telling us we had more year-over-year and month-over-month inflation than we expected. So what we're really doing is we're looking at this economy, where everybody's spending money like crazy and we just called disney to figure out what what it's like booking at disney and everything's booked out.

Uh people are spending money like like they have infinite amounts of money, and the economy is actually doing very, very well. So the question, then is: it makes sense for stocks to go up right does to the extent that markets start fearing that the federal reserve is going to have to overtighten because inflation runs away, and so that's the question is: is it possible that uh, you know We're going to get larger fears from the federal reserve, or is this the opportunity to buy the dip and uh that's where we we can go ahead and explore and kind of see relatively where we sit on some of these positions. So, for example, you've got a lemonade today. Lemonade today is trading for about 29.

If anything, it looks like it's somewhat lifting into the clothes here and we go to the day chart on 29. Bargain problem is one of some of the first companies to get sold off in these sorts of markets. Are companies that do not have profitability uh, yet like matterport is another one now matterport and lemonade. I love both of these companies and i love sofi as well.

Problem is they're, some of the first to get sold off, because there's a lot of fear that these companies, because they don't have uh profitability, algorithms, are just going to automatically sell them off, and so look at this volume increase here on matterport, for example, we have Not seen this kind of volume and matterport ever, which is wild, look at that. I honestly i mean i've never seen this many shares traded of a matterport. Now it could be because the price has gone down so much uh and that's probably what it is, but still i mean it clearly shows that we're not seeing at least a declining trend, so uh, then we've got four uh. You know sitting somewhere here at what 18 bucks so sitting somewhere in november of 2021 levels.

So not like a substantial deal here on ford. The att as a dividend stock has had a recent little run here, but settle back down to 24 after they cut their dividend in half that does not. This is no good. A little bit of pain left over here on some stocks, like alibaba, still kind of relatively close to that 108 bottom starbucks kind of sitting at a bottom that we haven't seen since november of 2020, which is kind of wild.

It's basically given up its entire recovery rally has been given up here, quite quite wild uh, now to the upside. Obviously we have snap at 39 which, when we look at it on the day on the day, chart it's intoxicating right. It's like oh, my gosh. Had i bought here at 35, i'd be up four dollars, that's you know eleven twelve percent or whatever great uh same thing with really with amazon right.

We fell down to about nine uh, eight or nine percent as a gain right here we actually bounced roughly off of three 3000 here, which we have a support line for as well and uh. It's had a phenomenal day, mostly rallying throughout the day and uh. The big picture, though, is zooming out for a moment and trying to figure out how much have we really recovered for amazon? We did a good thing. We went back center channel very, very big.

I i like seeing that uh same thing with bitcoin bitcoin back to center channel uh, just over 40 000. Next stop! If we break 44k, very, very, very bullish for bitcoin. I like that now uh pinterest and snap still below channels, though see pinterest still relatively at all time. Lows here, close to all-time lows.

Snapchat at 39 is great, but it really just brings us back to the middle of january. We really only removed about two weeks worth of losses, a firm bouncing along the bottom here, a firm is absolutely one of my favorite companies, but probably one of the worst companies to huddle if we go into a recession and - and so that is a concern with The firm recessions are a big problem for companies that hold personal debt because one of the first things people stop making payments on are not their cars or their homes, but on personal debts. That's why credit card interest rates are high right, so uh, michael graham here, says i'm a huge bull and i can't even trust the green days in the market yeah i mean hopefully, hopefully, because again, i've said this a million times before i'd rather make a video Than just going, i was wrong markets going back to the moon. I got back in lost a little bit of money.

Who cares? It's just a number get back in boom. Whatever right, i would love that and i will do that. The day we see an inflection point in inflation and the fed uh next week, i'll probably be doing a lot more trading by the way. I was just talking to course, members about uh how i'm planning a whole set of uh trading strategies because we're seeing a lot of back and forth volatility and some extreme volatility - and i'm gon na - take advantage of this.

So i'm i'm transferring a million dollars over to weeble and i'm gon na be playing on weeble with a million dollars and and so we'll do some uh some day trading it'll be fun, we'll probably start the trades on and the market opens uh. I don't know if i'm gon na be able to get everything through by monday, but it might have to be tuesday. It depends where the money settles, but anyway we'll figure it out. Maybe we can start monday i'll, probably start mark it open and i'll, probably close out the positions well before market close because usually towards the end of the day, traders close out their positions by 11, and we don't do the market close, live stream until the end Of the day uh so anyway, but but look at this, what we've got over here on on qqq, we were talking about this in the course member live stream about uh this potential uh.

Maybe is this a double bottom right? Did we kind of hit a bottom here? Do we get another bottom here we're going to have a green candle? In fact, if i just turn this to the normal candlesticks there we go, we got another green candle here. So the question is: did we get a bottom here? Are we hitting another bottom here and is it now time to to to really break out back to our trend lines entirely possible? Oh jpow turned 69 today uh, that's awesome, yeah and somebody here says the four hour candle on tesla broke. I think with five percent. Four percent up that should be correct.

Yeah, look at that. Let's see if we can close the day above this trend channel here now, one of the downsides of the way i drew this trend channel and just something to remember is that uh. If we just trade sideways along or on top of this 880 line, obviously we're naturally gon na break uh this this trend channel here uh, which is fine, because if this was a downtrend, it would break that downtrend. So you know it looks like today we might have a half break and if we could get a full break tomorrow well monday, that would be very ideal for for tesla in the short term, i think uh yeah.

What do you want me to do? What your pri pride machinery would you would you rather me say: uh, i'm buying a firm, i'm buying end phase, i'm buying tesla and then not tell you, i'm selling them because things have changed. Would would you rather me not tell you is. Is that really what you want, because that's kind of what the comments like you are implying that oh kevin on one day said: buy end phase and affirm. That's what i believed.

That's what i believe for the last two years, uh and and when the facts changed and we hit an iceberg. I changed my opinion. Do you not want me to tell you, should i just put my hand in the sand and do nothing? This is stupid. Stupid comment: uh, my name is muhammad.

I'm one of your biggest fans ever appreciate your digital. Thank you. So much appreciate that uh 69th birthday. I think that's funny on on j pal uh.

Okay. So, let's see here, uh, i'm also watching neo here so neo's kind of cool, because neo is off that bottom that we saw. I think it was friday that we saw this yeah. It was my birthday on my birthday, hey.

Maybe that was a birthday present. I should have bought neo, but i missed it but uh. You know january 28th, here on my birthday, you had uh neo hit 1931 and it's really come off from there, but it's almost kind of like we're hitting we're bouncing off a little bit of a ceiling right uh and that's that's a little problematic uh it's. So i do want to see us be able to break through some of these ceilings and when i'm looking at the day charts, even though today is a very bullish day, it's a very green day, i'm not really seeing us break those ceilings.

I mean the same thing here on on sofi: we've got a green day, but i mean it's certainly not breaking any kind of ceilings here now, that's not to say you want to wait to invest until you start breaking those resistance lines because you might be leaving Gains on the table right, but i mean look just because matterport's up three percent, am i really jumping up and down that it's eight dollars and 36 cents, not really uh. You know it's it's it's! It's not like it's! It's we've missed some kind of euphoric. Bull run if you're sitting on the side sidelines, uh, there's still a lot of nervousness priced into this market. Now that could be a good thing remember.

The quote is always be fearful when people are greedy right and be greedy when people are fearful. I just don't know how many people are actually fearful right now. Uh, it seems to me, like we've, got a lot of stocks going down because shorts are loading up and that's leading and that's a lot of institutional short selling and that's leading a lot of retail to by the day by the dip which has always worked. It's always been the mantra uh until we started getting some of these macro economic cycle changes where it's like.

Okay, wait, a minute buy the dip works. When you don't have macro economic headwinds by the dip works really well. When you have macro economic tailwinds now, we've got huge headwinds that we haven't had before, and so we got to keep an eye on those, but anyway uh look. I i love that we've got trade desk here at 73.

This is really good. It's up 10 today, but look at this volatility see this is what you'd want to take advantage of. As a trader i mean we were just on february, 2nd. We closed at 70, we hit a high on february, 2nd of 71., we're at 73 right now, uh pinterest, 10 spotify good okay.

I mean this is good uh. I i can't say with certainty that this is anything more than a dead cat bounce at this point, because we we just don't have any kind of sign that we're really breaking through resistance levels. In fact, here look at the spy we on the minute chart we broke through the 450, the 50 percent, which, just a few days ago, we were up at the 68 line. Look at that we were up at the six, i'm sorry, the 61.8 percent line and uh.

We fell right back to about 38.2. So we're really struggling on these lines here and the same thing's happening today on the fibonacci retracement, where it looks like we're actually potentially going to close again under that 50 retracement line for the spy uh. You know a rival has done very well uh coming off of the 290 bottom. It gave us about a buck back, but also hitting a ceiling and seeing these stocks hit, the ceilings of resistance is is quite disappointing.

It's almost like what you're getting is you're getting these, and i believe this i think, you're getting short-term momentum cycles where uh, where oh really i'm gon na look at that and just say uh. I think you're getting these short-term momentum cycles where institutions are like. Okay. Today's hot plate is snapchat and amazon, and then it's like it's like they're, like a crew, and it's it's really they're trying to screw retail in my opinion, but you have like these institutional, sheep and they're, just like it's like the suits are actually now dressed in Sheep's clothing and they're all like okay: today the deal is amazon and snapchat uh and anything else, advertising related and and then you have bad news and then all of a sudden.

No, today, it's oil, you know it's completely insane and i think it'll give you whiplash. As a retail investor to try to follow the sheep of the suits uh, it's it's. The market i think, is honestly best described as suits in sheep's clothing right now, uh there's a massive, a lack of conviction in in valuations at all. It's very difficult to do fundamental analysis, because fundamental analysis is based on some form of relative uh price to earnings, multiple, which we can't really pick a multiple.

We can only see that certain things are cheaper than other things like. We know that facebook is substantially cheaper than tesla uh, you know, but that doesn't make it a better deal in today's market. We know that etsy is substantially cheaper than sofi, but that doesn't make it necessarily a good deal in today's market. So i i don't know uh, it just depends on your conviction in terms of which direction we're going.

I do want to just be very clear. I do think that in you know three or four years, uh. All of the prices that we look at today are are going to be uh substantially higher uh in four years. So uh, i'm excited about that.

I just don't know about the next year. The next year uh i'm a little bit more skeptical. Some people have asked me they're, like oh kevin, why why don't you go uh all in on on the s p and i'm like come on man, the s p did 16 in 2020, the s p 500 did uh what was it like? 26 in 2021? What do we really think it's going to do the first year the fed starts hiking rates and dealing with inflation. Personally, i don't think much.

I think my opportunity cost on being on an in in an index is, is very, very, very low. It could obviously be very wrong, but but this is where you know, if you are going to make a move with your portfolio, you have to set your own expected value up in case you don't know what expected value is i'm just going to give you a Quick little explanation: uh by example. Let's say you have a 50 chance of making 25 or let's say no, let's do it this way. Let's say you have a fifty percent chance of making fifty dollars and a twenty percent chance of making a hundred dollars which do you pick? Do you pick the twenty percent chance of making a hundred dollars or the fifty percent chance of making fifty dollar i'll? Wait? A second all right - and somebody here wrote so stanley, black and decker - did uh did layoffs due to inflation.

Let's see here i want to. I want to read that we'll pull that up here, really uh, let's see here, stanley, black and decker sheepskin suits there. You go inflation news! Oh yeah! Oh that's, interesting! That's from about a oh yeah! Oh that's! Quite interesting, okay! So the answer the correct answer. Is you take the fifty percent chance of making fifty dollars? Why? Well? Because your expected value is just a multiple of the two, so uh.

If you have a 20 chance of getting a hundred dollars, your expected value is 20 times 100 or 20 dollars. If you have a fifty percent chance of making fifty dollars. Your expected value is point five times fifty, which is twenty five dollars. So your expected value is always higher on the twenty five dollar bet or the fifty dollar bet.

So that's that's the one you would choose, and so for me it's a very similar equation. For my portfolio, if i think there's a certain chance of prices going to a certain point or a recession or whatever uh, then at some point that expected value equation is much more favored in one direction and in this case that's cash. That doesn't mean it's for sure, gon na be right. Okay, i apparently i ran out of articles on biz journal, so that's lame.

Okay nope! I can't. Apparently i can't private browser back door into that. I have no idea what biz journals is anyway. So let me just try to go to one.

Oh here we go: oh yeah, stanley, black and decker a wave of layoffs that that is quite interesting in this market. I haven't. I haven't seen that so stanley, black and decker officials confirmed that the company has instituted a wave of recent layoffs but declined to identify the number of affected employees. Hmm, the company is taking steps to align its cost structure with the current environment.

Specifically, inflation and supply chain unfortunately resulted in a small percentage of employees being let go from the company, primarily salaried, with limited impact to our manufacturing and distribution, so they probably just cut like some marketing people or whatever i mean that that makes the most sense is Just cut cut like your general and administration staff to keep your margins higher. You know the house of pain, button, uh thoughts on high max i've, never heard of that. 70 growth trailing 12. yeah.

You got to be careful with the trailing 12, because a lot of the stuff trailing 12 is is pandemic related right, one percent chance of going to the moon uh risk is getting punished here. Smart risk is getting rewarded, bad risk is getting destroyed. Okay, i like that, i think, that's a good good way to put it uh. I, like our sponsor today, which is ftx us, which you could learn more about by going to medkevin.com ftxus, and you could watch btc, get rejected off of 41 000 up here uh, but that's all right we'll keep an eye on this.

Certainly over the weekend. I think it'd be very interesting to watch btc over the weekend, potentially trade it so i'll keep an eye on this. Okay, let's see we got four minutes to go and we are at spy falling into the close. Actually here, hmm yeah broke right under that resistance.

Again, i don't know anything about aso uh, let's see. Thank you. Uh, hello, hello. There you go required, return, equals risk-free rate, plus market risk premium, plus or times your beta.

There you go. You want to run your own formulas. Yeah path course comes out today. At 5 00 pm, i sent out a an email blast for that, so the terminal lied.

The terminal never lies. Oh no, why don't you factor in taxes? Oh it's in absolutely, yes, yes, no taxes are a part of expected value. Yes, uh. Absolutely taxes should be part of that uh yeah.

I i don't. I don't know any course discount codes right now. The price should have already gone up. I don't know if it did um buddies, justin's working on it, which reminds me i got ta.

I got ta, send him something um i mean you could still try birthday, but it should not work anymore, but if it does, it does uh, but anyway we're we're doing some new um pages for the courses and stuff, especially now that the path course will finally Be launched so it'll be fun. Okay, let's see. Oh, this is an interesting comment here and then let's look at the sticks for the last two minutes. So this comment here says: u.s debt is highest in 30 trillion in in okay, you're, talking about how new monetary systems are usually rushed in ushered in when we have uh wartime yeah.

This would be like uh how how like the the german mark, collapses or whatever or more times than that um i'm just gon na and without trying to break apart your question: i'm gon na try to answer this. The best way i can, which is, i do not believe that the dollar is going anywhere and the federal reserve will do everything to make sure to maintain the sanctity of the dollar. Even if that means dragging us through a recession. Now you might think that's crazy.

How is a recession going to protect the dollar uh over bitcoin right? Like think about this, i should just make a video on this whole thing. The government would rather push us through recession than let the dollar collapse and the dollar will collapse. If we don't prevent inflation, so if the government, if the fed, not the government, if the fed has to make a choice, dollar or recession, it's always recession. Uh.

If you don't go through a recession, yes, you could have a depression. This is also true, so you'd rather have a recession. Recessions could be healthy, they get zombie companies out of the market right they get uh, they get uh speculation out of the market, they kill speculation, they they get rid of excess. Uh recessions are not a terrible thing; they are a normal part of the business cycle, and this is this is why it's just so critical to remember that you know there are times where by the dip and there are times with the business cycle, and so you Have to you have to place your bets anyway.

Uh tesla fell a little bit into the close, so it's still up 3.7, though so still a very strong day here looks like the s. P. 500 is rotating down into the close, we're getting some cell momentum here again, this convictionless rally crap very, very common for us to see - or it could be, a reloading of the shorts, which is also very common for us to see, seeing that on the qqq as Well, snapchat ending just below 60 percent. Let's hit the bells all right, so dow jones down 0.06 percent s p, 500 up 0.52 nasdaq up 1.58 percent tech killing it today, despite bond yields skyrocketing and the russell 2000 is up uh 0.57, which the russell's really been lagging now.

What i do want to look at, we don't have earnings today, but what i do want to look at is the 10-year break. Even i think the 10-year break-even is really critical, so the 10-year break, even if we go to our line, chart 10-year break even is stable and i'm going gon na go to maybe a five-year break, even really quick, uh five-year break even is also stable, which is Good, that means inflation expectations are stable, but elevated right and we don't want to see inflation expectations start skyrocketing. That's when things get a little bit more nerve-wracking. The 10-year itself is up substantially today.

The 10-year itself is looks like it's ending at about 1.919. So right below 1.92, that is a sign of a bond sell-off and the five-year is oh, my gosh, the five years at 1.73 holy smokes. That's wild, uh anyway, yeah five years 1.73. That's crazy! Okay, uh oil! How do we end down oil today? And i want to see the aftermarket a little bit here, so oil today is sitting at brent at 20 or 93 32 up substantially just this year.

Uh bp has been killing it this year by the way too, it's from like 26 to 32.. It's it's very, very good, okay. So what what happened here? How did we close? Well, we had snap end its euphoria a bit and it looks like really the last 30 minutes of the day we started getting a little bit of that sell down here same thing. Here on amazon a lot, this has got to be institutional selling right here into the end uh, which that could be because of outflows.

I've noticed on a lot of green uh rally days. We end up getting a selloff towards the end of the day, not always but uh. You know it's it's something to watch uh, five and ten years. Let me let me look at the ten two and i'll.

Also look at the five two. That's that's not bad. Let's look at there ten two, so the yield curve inversion, usually we're looking at the ten two uh for an inversion, and if we get a an inversion in the ten two god, where is it there? It is if we get an inversion in the ten and the two year that could be a signal of a recession. Coming, oh, okay, all right, the ten two um 10-2 today.

Didn't i don't like this price action. Let me show you in a moment one sec. Okay - and let me also just look at the five two or sorry, the 510 - i think it's going to be about the same pattern. It's the same pattern.

It doesn't matter okay, standby picture coming there we go. This right here is the uh and thanks bloomberg. For this, this is the uh. 10 2 spread it's at 60.1 over here, and you can see today it dropped down to a low that we last saw on about january 31st and the more this goes down to potentially zero.

The more likely a recession is, according to this chart, you know, charts can be wrong, but, according to this chart, the more this line gets to that flat area. The more likely a recession is within the next 12 to 18 months now, hello from romania. Thanks for being here, theme of the year sell the morning and buy the evening switch on friday, that's funny uh yeah! You know i should really make a video about this uh. Like i don't know, somebody help me figure out a title.

What's what's the title, because what what you're, basically asking, is for an explanation on? Why would the federal reserve what prefer a recession uh and then, as a result, her employment right be a little bit of a complicated title and some of you'll have a good suggestion. All right, so, let's look at the sticks here, so we've got a little bit of red continuing here into the after hours after hours, usually not the best predictors. Obviously, but you can see this downtrend continuing here on amazon. Somebody here says the weekly charts.

All look like dead cats, um yeah this. This is your your weekly here yeah i mean you look at the weekly charts for anything it's disgusting uh i mean it is this. Is that it's not a weekly there, you go yeah, i mean the weekly charts, geez man, you're right, the weekly charts are ugly. Oh, my gosh, don't even turn on the weekly charts.

Oh i mean this is the most disgusting set of charts. I've ever seen in my life, i'm kidding uh, it's pretty bad, though yeah the weekly i mean, there's oh well, dutch bros is killing it on the weekly, but i don't get dutch bros with that thing does so well. That is, that has just been a good one, but otherwise i mean everything is disgusting on the weekly charts, except do you dwack and dutch bros, so it's basically trump and bros okay, if you want, if you want good, weeklies trump and bros, oh gosh, that's too Funny, ah, don't work that way: man the fed, won't allow a recession in an election year. Do you ever hear of uh this little little recession called 2008.

Come on man, trump bros yeah uh, the tom lee violent rally, yeah uh! Do we need a recession? That's interesting all right, so uh, let's look at the after hours a little bit here. Let's see what we got there. We go okay, so after hours changes we are nominal. Usually like anything like one percent changes.

I try not to look at yeah. That's pretty much. All we have over here i mean you've, got like sofi 1.4 big deal um. These are, these are just nominal fluctuations, probably just continuations of trends that we saw no earnings.

Today, no friday afternoons are usually quite boring. I hate to say it, but it's the truth. Uh yeah, i mean so a little bit of a continuation of the trend that really relatively meaningless. I mean if we were still open, we'd see the same thing.

You know amazon's already kind of bottoming here in the after, so it's not a big deal, but uh look on the day itself, ignoring the after hours here you you got to hand it to like snap and bill.com and amazon. They just totally killed it today. Microstrategy. Obviously running because of the incredible uh btc movement, we had bill.com getting all the way back to the beginning of the year here, with uh with the price movement today, really incredible: oh trader tv.

Thank you check it out when you're looking at after hours on a friday, you know it's the end of the stream yeah you're right, but there's one thing you would have missed. If you thought it was the end of the stream. Now i got ta show it to you. This mortgage rates popping a little bit uh, that is, that is uh.

Obviously, today on a big big mortgage rate move here. This is the one month chart for mortgage rates, greetings from germany, hello, deutschland yeah and uh yeah. Something to watch, we shall see. Fridays are fridays after clothes are always the saddest time of the week.

I know i just got ta say all right have a good weekend and i'll, probably post stuff, but it's just it's not as fun to post on a weekend. There's something there's less to talk about. I don't know, i guess i guess i could do some like evergreen videos like i don't know why my camera freezes on stream and how to prevent it uh how to play call of duty and not suck. I don't know, then there's always beer or loose.

Oh the lucid video. That's right! Yeah start a gaming channel start a vlog. I mean we could do everything uh. Thank you for calling out weeks ago that good earnings would be lightly rewarded and good or uh and misses would get destroyed, made quite a bit playing puts on earnings.

Oh thanks, man appreciate you saying that uh and congratulations good for you. Crypto games. Oh my gosh! That's it: that's it we're going into axi infinity we're going all in going all into the metaverse somebody told me somebody said uh. There was an allegation that that somebody alleged they got raped in the metaverse uh, not even going to comment on that one all right.

Folks, we'll see you the next one, goodbye and good luck: oh, and go to medkevin.com ftxus to go trade btc over the weekend. Yeah.