What's going on, guys? welcome back to the channel I Appreciate you guys tuning in. Sorry I haven't posted a video. Uh, over the past couple days or so I've just been really busy. uh, getting ready to close on a new house move and put this current house up for rent as a rental.

So just a lot of things going on. Uh so I figured since I haven't posted in a couple days, I'll do a full run through. we're going to look at statistics we'll look at SMA We'll look at Bwap and basically talk about bigger views. I Mean we'll pretty much hit home on everything you can kind of think of to a degree in comparison to what you'd find Elsewhere on the internet.

Uh, at least I would assume. So uh, let's get into it. a lot to cover. so let's just, uh, have some fun.

Why don't we? Uh, so we'll start here all right. So this is a statistics chart. This is a statistical probability. Um Channel You can get this on our website.

It's like 69 bucks custom coded. Um, so check that out. It's uh, a great tool. So anyways, looking at statistics, we just always assume the market moves to and from statistical probabilities.

This big dashed white line here is the weekly or slash yearly week. one year week statistical probability Trend Long story short, the Market's going to move to and from. It's very common and so pretty much once the market does a move from the white to the yellow. Generally the yellow would be like a bounce area and you can see we've already kind of bounced in that spot.

So it's already doing what it's supposed to be doing. Now, Whether or not it holds indefinitely and creates a bigger bounce is kind of doesn't really matter. Um, but we just know that the market has moved from 0er to negative one. So this gives us a way of interpreting or viewing the market.

Um, with all the noise aside, we don't really care about the pattern. We're not. It doesn't. None of that even matters.

We're just looking at statistically, what has the market done. The market has gone from fair value of 415 to negative-1 which is slightly, uh, obviously, oversold. Um, anyways, so markets move from 0 to negative one. No big deal.

That pretty much means if the market is going to break down further, it's got to learn to get acceptance below this. So we've dropped below, bounced back up. recover, bounce, bounce. Now we're trying to break it again.

The only way the market can move forward to the downside is obviously getting acceptance below this and moving lower right. Then the next statistical probability would be this halfway marker. The half deviation 50% from -1 to -2 That's the halfway mark. Okay, just like here, when the market moved from zero to the half deviation, that was a 50% marker of making it to negative one.

Right, We cross through the 50. we never recover the 50 way marker. Fall to Ne1. Now, negative one, bounce, hold support.

Unless this magically breaks down and Main contains below Ne1, then you can't go further. That's the concept, right? So right now, we're kind of at a negative one support area and it would appear that we've tried to bounce it. The Market's getting a little weak and trying to do some moves below it. We'll see.

All right. Um, now and again. Remember this is all statistical probability stuff. this.

this doesn't have to necessarily do with intermediate Trend right? So this is more of a long-term statistical probability Trend Now we're going to go look at the Smas because that's kind of intermediate short-term Trend All right. So now when we pull the charts back and we go to the Spy Okay, what? I want you guys to First Look at is the 30-minute chart. So we go to the 30 minute chart and delete some of these older drawings. All right, you guys will remember We said for the longest time that was the cell signal and we were in a downtrend, downtrend, downtrend downtrend.

we hit 425. The negative: 1 weekly level, we came into 422 a long-term weekly Vwap level. So as we're selling down in this downtrend into 425 and 422, we statistically coming into support. and we're coming into weekly Trend support.

And we're coming into Fibonacci support. So when we were in the downtrend, the market reversed at 422 off of lot of reversal Point levels. Afterwards, the market reversal jumped up high enough to break the 30 minute 50. SMA That starts to tell us the market is entering or trying to enter in uptrend or an uptrend move or we're no longer bearish, right? So as the market breaks this, you would close your short from that downtrend, All right.

So if you had gotten short which most people don't, if you gotten short here and stayed short this whole way which most people wouldn't But if you did right and you were short the whole way, or let's say you're waiting to get long, so this is bearish. You break down, you're short short Short Short short short short. you break over the 50. That's where you would cover right because that could Kickstart a new uptrend right? And if you wanted to get long, you would start getting long with the market breaking over this and you would be adding long into the 50.

SMA Because again, the break over the 50 is the break out. The move back to the 50 is the back test of that break out. So you'd be getting long here and adding this dip and then you get this. push up the Gap up overnight.

All right now, the market decided to sell that off and rebre the 50. So again, if you were getting long here, adding dips here popped up, you made money. Let's say you sold 80% of your position. your stop would be below this 50 SMA.

So if the market came back down and broke, you would stop there. Why? Because that could Kickstart a new downtrend could doesn't have to, but could right? So with you buying here and here, your average would be nearly the exact same as your stop out. That's the purpose and the power of using the 50 SMA over under right. And then it gets a little fakey here.

blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah right? But we'll go and look at the the uh, the finite move. So okay now now we'll go into kind of like this morning real quick. right? So this morning if you look at the spy in the 50s MAA it's priced at 4276. Okay, so what we're going to do is we're just going to go like this: 4276.

Okay, and let's go look at a F minute chart real quick. So if we look at this 426 level and we look at this five minute chart, we would realize that that's pretty much where the 50 SMA is at. Now the 50 SMA on the uh, the Futures Market is different than the SPX or the Spy SPX and spy are the the the two tickers that we use the 50 SMA 30 minute over under bullish bearish signal. But the Futures Market 50 SMA is priced differently than the SPX or the Spy.

So we still have to use SPX or Spy's 50 SMA as the over under bullish bearish level for the Futures Market in after hours trading. the better way of saying that is the only way to get the accurate over under bullish bearish Price for the Futures Market is to use SPX or spy 50 SMA and then go and plot that where it would be right? So again, if we look at this 30 minute spy chart, the 50 SMA is priced here at 427 right? You could look at a F minute chart or a one minute chart and be like oh, like that's right there in that candle and then you could just simply go over to Es and be like Oh I'm going to correlate that to the Es and be like, all right, Well I looked at where the 50 SMA was on the spy and and that's right there in the Es. You see how it's the exact same look at, like this is yesterday before the market closed, right? That's where I've priced the 50 SMA and the Futures Market. Go look at the Spy.

Where's the 50sm at the end of the day right there, right? That's where it was. So we go look at the Futures Market ores and we just plot where we would assume that 50 SMA is at. based on SPX or spy, it would be here. And now this becomes your bullish bearish level All right.

So when the market breaks over it essentially you'd be bullish watching, dips into it. So this one breaks down gets a little faky. Pops over dips right so you'd be kind of dip long here. All right.

When it breaks below, you can be bare. So there's your break. below. there's your back test.

there's a bearish leg. Okay, if it breaks above, you're bullish. There's your break over very slight. one minute back test, and there's your long push.

This morning, here's your break down. You'd be back to bearish or you wouldn't be bullish. That's an aggressive trading style, meaning you trade every angle. Which is if you break out, you buy dips, you trade long.

If you break down, you short tops cover. If you break back up, you buy dips, you go long, you break back under, you go short. That's a very aggressive trading style, right? You could just be long bu. So you saw a break you would add dips sell into Supply right? It breaks down, You would close out or you would no longer be long buys.

You would wait. It re breaks here. you would get long. You can catch that move right and then you hold some and then you'd stop out.

right? So that's the very finite way of watching the 50. SMA Um, sometimes it will provide very small little trades. but the concept is is all big moves start from the 50 SMA But there's going to be periods of like consolidation and you know whatnot where the Market's figuring itself out, where there's going to be these breaks that don't really amount to much so just you know really what it comes down to to is the 50 SMA will be your start point of really good moves. but there's also going to be periods of whether you want to call it consolidation.

Right where the market is figuring itself out, where big Traders and big players are accumulating positions. So throughout this whole thing you could have said oh, this is an accumulation or sorry, a distribution and and people are selling this move right. You could have thought that at the same time you could look at this and be like oh, like this is this, looks bullish right? You could have thought that by looking at a pattern right? So instead of thinking of a pattern or thinking of this is going to be a top move or what have you right you look at the 50 SMA right and and so you might assume that the bigger trend is down. That's fine, that's great, but you use the over under 30 minute 50 SMA on the Spy Whether you're looking at the es doesn't really matter spy and you would essentially if you wanted to be short.

right? if you're like I think the overall trend is down I'm going to be short. Well, don't short unless you're below the 50 right? You could have shorted here and got this top, but what if you shorted here and it just kept going Or like for example, like this move right? you're shorting this top right. You think you got the top and then it holds the 50 kind of bounces and then you get a little breakdown but it recovers if any blows up right versus if you broke the 50 here say you went short, you would cover for a small loss, you break to 50 and you short the pop. Now you win right? You wait for the breakdown of the 50 here.

you take a little and then you're going to short. A pop never comes and it just Fades out. You win right versus trying to predict a top and then getting pushed out right. So this way you're jumping in line with Trend more.

So all right. So that's a very finite way of looking at the Es uh, and uh, the Spy to basically you know, join in and Trend and look for trades of the 50, SMA and so on, so forth. Um, the next thing would be trading view, trading view. There is like so much I could talk about on this that's been going on.

Uh, but you know I'll try my best to just be somewhat simple here. Um, so as we all know we've talked about the 420 47 is a strong bounce area because that would be the back test of the bare Market breakout. V So in 2022, we put an all-time high went through a Bare Market This is the bare Market downtrend volume weighted average excuse me price that red one there so you can see we came down back test that again bounce right here where this yellow dot is. this is a weekly volume we at average price, continuation support blah blah blah that comes in a little bit below that price.

We didn't tag it, but again, you're kind of stacking levels of support there. Obviously, we know statistics was 425. Obviously we know that the Fibonacci sequence of the downside of the current cell signal or previous sell signal were cominging into the 423 extension. Which means the Fibonacci sequence of down sign would be complete.

All right. So a lot of things that would create supports there all right Now What we used to predict yesterday's low of day would be the daily chart. So um, we got a tag of the daily chart continuation level and it's on my chart from doing my Twitter post yesterday about this. So if you look at here um you'll see this daily vew up is expected lowrisk Long Level attempt could be small, could lead to something bigger.

It already made a profitable intraday long trade blah blah blah blah right? So what we're showing you here is nothing new Under the Sun that we haven't already taught you and that would basically be if you look at this low right So the market comes down cool, puts in a low, and then it bounces back up and creates this little reversal right. And and what was that reversal right? So this low right that low was this low here. So this is a daily chart. Now we're just looking up here on a 30- minute chart, right? So that low and we can even look at this on like a five minute chart Because a lot of people look at five minute chart.

So let's do that all right. So this is a FIV minute chart. So this low on the daily chart was really just this low on a five minute right. And then, uh, the push up to here on the daily chart was the push up to here on, you know, five minute chart, right? So that was a big reversal.

So again, we use daily charts. weekly charts, blah blah blah, all sorts of charts. But at the end of the day, if we had a reversal here and the market pops up right, then a lot of times what I'm going to do is I'm going to start anchoring a vwap to the low on the daily chart because then that can give me the next higher low sequence attempt zone, right? So what we end up doing is we get this low point. we have a reversal.

Then we start to Anchor a vwap to the low of this candle to give us where we assume that a high or low attempt can very well be on the daily chart, right? and it might work a little bit. It might work really good or it could fail, but that should be a lowrisk start point. So much so that even if it doesn't work, you still make a profitable trade on the day. Whether it's a one minute scale, five minute scale, 10- minute scale, you still enter into a profitable move.

right? So that that's the concept is, you use a daily chart, which is a stronger time frame chart, and you find a really lowrisk level that could lead to a really big daily chart move. But even if it doesn't, the intraday should still give you a decent profitable trade. All right, That's the kind of the concept and the the benefit of using the daily chart in this tacted blah blah blah. All right, So you put that higher low there.

This is where that that Vwap is going to come into play. All right. Well, kind of. So this is where the VAP comes into play right there.

Okay, now we go go look at a 5 minute chart. It's going to be that blue line. So that blue line there. There's a lot of lines in this chart.

I'll make this yellow. so let's settings yellow All right. So that yellow line would be this daily chart. VAP Though you can't like, see it right? So again, we put the daily Vwap here.

Daily Vwap gives a higher low daily chart level coming in at 42432 42 443 right in that area. So just using this yellow line to Def find that price part in a 5 minute, that would be our daily chart volume weighted average price low risk Long Level Based off of Um Wednesday September 27th's low point that create a reversal. So that's how we would go about watching for yesterday's kind of low of dat bounce in that area by using that daily chart Vi at um So yeah I mean I'm just going on about all sorts of now. So pretty much you know to just make it simple at the end of the day, right? you can do all that crazy stuff I'm doing.

That's what you could do to get all these other levels right. Like for example, remember how we just talked about if you're over the 50 SMA you're bullish, right? Well, we were watching bullish down here, right? So these lows those were defined by daily chart V apps and some statistics levels, right? So unless you're watching statistics or unless you're watching daily chart V app or for whatever reason to be long down here, that maybe you weren't long down there, right? But the concept is you don't have to know daily chart view app. You don't have to know statistics right because you could simply just wait for the break of the 50 trade. These little pops, You can make money on that and then if you get a breakdown, you could trade short on make money on that.

And if you get back over here, you could trade long on that and make money. And if you come back below here, you could short that and make money on that simply to by just following one simple moving average right? So that's the difference is you can either follow the SPX or the Spy 30 minute 50 SMA and you could simply follow one SMA and be short under it and bullish over it. Or you could do things like this and look at daily chart vaps and long-term trends and use the daily chart higher lows to predict these lows and then go. You could do all that, or you could just do that.

Whatever you want, it's here for you on the channel. I can teach it to you. It's here. Whatever you want, right? More complicated, less complicated, right? Whatever.

A Lot of people say the simpler the better. That's true, but also at the same time. Uh, this is pretty simple too, right? The more you have, the more to take in, but not necessarily more confusing or more complex. Realistically, right? Because all we did was just oh, this is the Daily Chart low.

I'm going to click this button. Add that here there's my level to be long. So is it really confusing? Not really. But when you have a lot going on then your mind, it makes it harder for it to compartmentalize it and understand what you should be using.

when you should be using it. That's the problem. So anyways, everyone take care, have a great day and I'll catch you in the next one.