Hey everyone kevin here, welcome back to another market, closing live stream, uh markets going a little, not so crazy right now in in a really a positive way. Now we've been down this road before the only difference is it hasn't been january? So that's a really interesting fact to consider that now, it's january, usually the first day of the year, doesn't really tell us anything about how the year is going to go like there's, there's no really identifiable correlation between market returns on the first day on the indices And uh and ultimately, what ends up happening the rest of the year. We we generally don't see that sort of correlation uh, but we do have this potential that profit or or like headphone hedge fund loss taking and hedging and profit taking is over. Maybe some of the pain is going to subside it and maybe we'll start seeing an unwinding of shorts in various different companies.

So one of the things that i want to start with pull that up right now is looking at a little bit of the short interest of some of the different companies, and i want to see if we're noticing any kind of inflection point. I think it's really important to pay attention to inflection points in the market. I think sometimes, when i do that there are these trolls that are like. Oh kevin's flip-flopping, it's like well, you know, there's the market flip-flops every single day right every single day.

It's either up or down, and so tracking. It, i think, is very important, especially if you're looking for trades to make uh outsized returns. Uh or you know, maybe that's what you do for a living. Is you trade or you do it for fun or whatever your your? Why is is up to you, but inflection points are huge, so i want to see if we have a near-term inflection in shorts to see if we uh have any potential relief uh, especially in like the smaller cap section, a sector.

We see a smaller cap rally right now, but look we've been down this road a million times before uh it doesn't have to last and that's one of the most frustrating things is when you have a market that uh kind of gives you a signal that it's Doing something and then all of a sudden it flips and does the opposite that drives a lot of people: nuts uh. It feels uh, very emotional, so uh we'll take a look at the shorts and see what we got going on here. Uh that'll be good tell, but i do think that otherwise, you know first trading day of the year, doesn't necessarily have to signal what's coming for the year. I do think there are a lot of stocks that have oversold that, hopefully start rotating back one of the bigger issues that we have today, while we pull up the short interest here is the jump in yields we're seeing a dumpage of bonds.

Bonds are being dumped and when bonds get dumped, it either means people are shorting bonds or affirms that we're holding bonds are dumping them and that could be because of a reversal and omicron fear. So a continued reversal like if, if we drew a chart of omicron fears, omicron fears kind of did this. In my opinion, it was nothing because nobody well, nothing is flat, so nobody knew about it here hold on. Let's do that.

That was omicron. Initially, nobody knew about it, then you have a dramatic fear, i mean almost a vertical, i mean news, doesn't go vertical, it does a lot of this and you probably had a little bit of uh zigzagging in the omicron fears and i would say, we've not only Rotated down, but we've probably started inflecting down substantially in the omicron fears. If i could keep redrawing that'll. Actually you know i'll just redraw a little bit, because let me just draw like this honestly.

I think we're getting a lot more of that. That's kind of the the chart of emotion that i would draw for omicron, and it makes sense that, if we're selling all or if we're moving to bonds here, which is like a move to safety right uh, it should probably look more like this. Here's! Your move to safety, then it would make sense that that move to safety would reverse here, and so that is being evidenced, i think, by the movement that we have in recovery stocks. I think that's what's happening in the bond market no guarantees, but if we hop on over to weebs, that's pretty much exactly what we see in addition to the small caps moving, we have to get past the small caps moving.

We do see uh she's, where there's so many of them. Here we go norwegian, uh, build-a-bear, carnival cruise lines. Nordstrom macy's is up right uh. Let me see if the airlines are up as well.

That's uh! Yes, they are so that's a bit of what you're seeing right now: small caps and recoveries uh moving up and and at the same time, bonds for that flight to safety, moving down, okay, so uh! This gives us a little bit of an idea for uh what we've got going on on. What's it called um uh the bond side, let's now jump over briefly to shorts, and i just want to see if we're seeing a movement here in shorts. Now i'm allowed to share this screen, so that's good we'll do this, and what we're looking for is the bar above my head. So i'm actually going to remove myself for a moment and i'm just going to take a brief look at a few of these.

I'm not really looking for suggestions right now. I got plenty on my head yeah, it's still flat so far, still flat kathy. We expect that we, we did see going up. Actually kathy's has rotated down.

So that's interesting. Let's do a few others that are high like lemonade and shift now, you're still getting still no inflection point that i could see yet from the hedge funds. So it's too early to and i'm not going to look at gamestop or amc. I mean i'll look at them, but not for the purpose of trying to understand what the hedges are doing.

Uh, i'm more interested in looking at shorts of small caps, so um, you know like uh, like corsair uh tattooed chef. Like i said, we already looked at yeah, there's, there's no discernible change in short activity, just yet uh with the exception of probably sure yeah no piton after it fell. Short interest, went down a little bit. So i think, that's kind of interesting that we're not really seeing a a shift in shorts, yet so that's a red flag for potentially, in my opinion, uh signaling, that the rally we're seeing right now doesn't have to last.

This could be like tuesday. Now i don't want to be like the the oh, i'm, the guy, who likes to take the punch bowl away, uh kind of uh fear-monger or whatever. I just like to be realistic, like on tuesday, we had a rally and and that faded dramatically toward our thursday. Rather faded dramatically towards the end of the day and then evaporated afterwards like a friday, and it was just nuts the fake out was, was so blatant uh and i hate that kind of stuff.

So i just want to be prepared. I don't like i don't like entering a trade and then at u-turning, who does nobody does uh, and so that's why? What did they say it twice? Is it once bitten, twice shy, yeah anyway. Okay, so obviously tesla is, is absolutely crushing it right now uh. I am shocked that we're almost at twelve hundred dollars, because i gave myself like at least another week for us to get to 12.50 and we we're kind of just going there straight today, which is insane uh.

I think there are a lot of people trading in expecting it to go to this level, which makes sense um, but anyway, we'll see what happens so really cool on tesla. You do just like we saw this morning. You still have software and um. Well, actually, software compressing here uh and software and of course moderna so moderna crypto software, so in other words higher risk is selling off.

You know modern more for its own reasons, but these others higher risk software companies rotating to the downside and that's going to include websites cyber security, uh, checkout options, uh kind of interesting uh hood, on the other hand, though, is - is moving up along with some of The other small caps right now was up as much as five and a half percent. I believe uh moved up a little bit more here recently, nvidia, not as strong as what we saw this morning, but still doing well. Amazon couple percent visa visas been doing very nicely coming back out of that hole, um yeah. This has been a solid move here by visa, very, very nice move by visa uh kind of similar to that move.

We saw over on roku yeah roku coming out of that hole, the depths of that hole and and recovering visa actually probably a little bit more sharply than uh than even roku. Hmm now uh. At the same time - and i made a video on crypto currencies so check out my crypto video, but we are seeing btc suffer and the suffering has really been continuing uh and in my opinion this is really symptomatic. Symptomatic of of fed fears on uh on.

What's to come from kryptos, i would highly encourage watching that crypto video, so you can get some more details on this. Obviously, when you have pain like this you're going to have pain in in the minors yeah, they very much correlate with this okay. So, let's now do a little bit of hunting and see what's going on in the news space, good old coffee, all right, let's see what we got lumber. Ah really i mean this is like like bloomberg, why why would you even run a headline like this uh? Does it doesn't even make sense like? Can we just say duh like uh? I don't know if we can do it.

I want to say. Let me see here, oh gosh, i used to do this. I haven't done this in a while, but i'm gon na try. It anyway uh just for giggles here: can we do it hold on one sec? No, i don't know that we can wait.

A second can: okay, uh, i fixed it for them. I fixed it. Y'All. Look i fixed bloomberg.com, you see what i did see.

This is uh. This is bloomberg us covet test, uh test positive suggest case numbers are under counted, so i changed the headline for them, uh to to duh like come on. How is that news? We we've known that for a long time. Uh there we go there.

We go. How does that look folks see see? Look. This is what it is. This is what it should be anyway.

Got ta love, inspect, element uh, okay, let's go back to safari, though, because i'm pretty sure i'm logged in over here uh all right, so schumer to press senate for a vote on change to filibuster, okay. This could be interesting. Uh kevin hacker: why do you think i shaved my head everything's changing in 2022.? Uh? No, so this is interesting. Okay, the the filibuster rules, the this would be a democratic, hail mary and a change to the filibuster.

I, i think, actually has some potential risks to the stock market. I think it's worth a separate, independent video on this, but uh changing the filibuster rules would would really mean that democrats would have essentially unilateral power for the rest of 2022 and they could wield that as a way to try to convince voters that they can run The country better without republicans and therefore democrats should be voted into power. I do think there are some substantial dangers that that come with uh unchecked power like this, and so that would not be a good thing. I do think this would be a negative catalyst, though i i i can almost say with certainty that this is mere showmanship, because there's no way people are like people like joe manchin are going to go for it even biden's against uh, changing the filibuster rules and Uh republicans certainly are not going to vote for it, so i i i don't think there's there's much here.

Um market is fixated on covet with trading issues, percolating well, yeah, okay, property stocks; okay, so we talked about the demolition order. This was pretty wild. That demolition order there in china we'll see what comes out of this uh for illegal or unpermitted builds. Hmm yeah no kidding.

Look at that elon musk's fortune, climbs 30 billion dollars on uh on tesla's record quarter for deliveries, yeah wild. He should have sold his stocks. Now, instead of last year should have made the whole the whole thing a january event. Oh well, hey! I was one of those deliveries which is kind of cool.

Take a look at this. This is an interesting article. Let's see quickly what their secret is, because i think it's an interesting title: almost everybody would be interested in how to see time the secret to peak entrepreneurial productivity, see how much space you have in a day. It's like a puzzle, oh is this: is this kind of like uh, oh breaking up your calendar, maybe into like 15 minute bites or use a piece of paper? You know personally uh, i i don't know.

I guess i should probably read the whole thing. That sounds like exhausting to me. I don't know i'll, look at that a different time. Okay, so let's uh, let's stick with financials.

Let's see here: jury in homes, trial, deadlocked apple becomes the first company to reach a tree three trillion dollar market cap. It's incredible! Not much newswise has changed, wait, ray dalio. No, i don't think the oh. No that's not redalia! Oh oh ray dalio is not the ceo.

Oh, i see. Okay, okay, i thought for a moment, ray dalio was stepping down. I didn't know he wasn't the ceo. I don't pay that much attention to radio some of the stuff.

I just don't agree with hey. There's some stuff he says is good. I read his book. Hmm amc to refinance that's high interest rate debt.

I mean this is smart. You know, as you prove stability, why not refinance you know if you have loans at 13, what uh and things are going well? Why not refinance that to somebody else? Who's who's willing, uh to uh to essentially take even just a slightly lower interest rate free up more cash flow for amc, so that's actually great a typical sort of corporate cash management, though so i don't think anything particularly exciting here. Barons apple briefly hits three trill. Hmm, let's see here anything else, visa the juggernaut of payments business, one of our top picks for 2022..

I agree with that yeah, a lot of focus really on tesla. I think that's! That's taking the financial media by storm today is uh tesla, tesla tesla all right. Let's see how things are going, there's tesla 13. What was that 1200 dollars? Really incredible, uh, very, very, very incredible! Okay! So, let's see here, i want to see if we're going to get any kind of rotation down in.

What's it called uh towards the end of the day? So, let's see here, metamaterials is running no, no real sell-off towards the end of the day. That is very interesting on the smaller caps yeah here, faraday futures is pulling back a little bit. It did run up to about 20 relatively low volume, though, what's what's the volume here on the minute basis, ten thousand, ah ten thousand times six, it's still 60 grand a minute, no wait: yeah yeah yeah; it's that's! Actually, pretty dang low, okay, yeah, so faraday futures a lot of the small caps moving very well today and and again, i'm looking at the spark lines here just to see if we have cell down fanny slightly slight bit here on microvision in lordstown slight little adjustments Down a little up on minarik carol's rest recovery stocks still holding on holding on to their gains for the day like uh carnival, not getting much of a sell down, we've got only 10 minutes left and i'm not seeing any kind of drawdown. Yet.

I think that's very bullish, canoe slightly rotating down uh, let's see yeah downside still, moderna cryptocurrency is still selling off hmm matterport and a farm uh setting up for nice discounts here with the software bunch. If i had money to add that wasn't purely for trading, i because we might be making some trading moves in the course member live just in case that sounds confusing, and so i'm setting aside some margin with stop losses solely for trading uh. But anyway, if i had cash left over uh to increase uh, am i to build out my portfolio more matterport in a firm is where i'd probably be looking today for increasing to the portfolio, although keep in mind matterport's coming off that crazy metaverse hype? For some reason, people who never used to talk about matterport everybody was interested in matterport during uh during the the hype week. So to speak, hmm amc see it would have been best to just sell everything i sold a little bit.

Uh i sold it. I mean it's a little chunk uh, but i didn't sell everything and uh. Sometimes you look like you're like ah, but if you could have sold everything you'd be careful, because if you get too psychologically caught up in the what it could have showed us, you end up losing your mind and nobody wants to lose your mind, especially what it Could have showed us yeah real estate stocks hanging out in the mid middle of the pack today, lemonade's not really going anywhere and face green. Was it earlier? Hmm, i'm really impressed that.

So far it looks like things are holding on this is. This is very different from what we saw on thursday, yeah, even the spy. That's very good, see our we are we're ending high on the indices right now that now that is exciting. Let me see here, oh yeah.

Oh, we absolutely are look at this yeah uh dow jones is up 0.69 smp, 0.59 nasdaq, 1.05 uh and even the russell's up almost a percent, so russell attack uh. This is uh. This is a pretty obvious rotation from a fear hedge of bonds uh in into into risk. Hmm, let me see palantir, i see someone in the comments here asking about pollen here.

You know palantir is not really moving but uh. How does it compare how's snow doing? They have a similar valuation, yeah snow's down about a similar amount or or i'm sorry, snow's down. Two percent uh pound tears up fractionally, but they're both not really moving that much hmm, let's take a look at. Oh, i just saw tesla at 1337 that was cool.

We're actually getting a little bit of an end of the day. Push here on tesla. Look at that. This, in my opinion, is, is a very, very good sign for excitement uh in the market and when you, when you start getting institutional and fund buying like this you'd, hope that at some point for those in the crypto space that that translates over to to maybe Some new highs on crypto but uh right now, it's it's someone else's turn, and that is a lot of automotive.

A lot of automotive. Look at that shift: tesla microvision automotive, related uh, lucid neo, uh news had a little bit of a rocky day, but it still looks like it's gon na end up about five and a half percent, it's great, hmm, okay! So five minutes to go watching the downside. Here uh we've talked about a firm and matter port bill and monday in roblox rotating with, as well as almost all the coins. Here.

Let's take a brief, ta look at the coins. I think i've got these off. Oh nope um with my drawings on eight ago. I don't know my drawings on ada have been deleted, don't know.

Actually all of my drawings are gone. Ah there we go, they haven't been deleted. They were just on hide. Oh look at that bounce.

That's incredible perfectly. Following the fibonacci, yup and people say, ta doesn't work, uh solana's almost doing the same thing as well, except salon is much higher on that fib curve. Hmm! Okay! Oh we're! Almost at 1200 there on tess all right. Let's briefly, look i'm gon na briefly.

Look to see if i can see any uh more news in the back end. Let's see what we have going on today. So today, first day of the trading year, diversification could be the safest bet for 2022, says uh, a writer, for i mean i feel like that would almost be just like an index fund, which is you know once you have more than 30 to 50 stocks. You really start trading kind of like an index fund, but uh, let's see here if they talk about any kind of particular, no just speculative stocks, okay, diversifying from specular stocks.

Okay, that makes sense uh. Let's see dollar starts with a bang, no, not really anything crazy. In the news space at all u.s stocks, skin after blah blah blah quiet, fed, reverse repo usage, plunges ooh that uh, maybe anything else. Bridgewater homes, jury to keep working flights, getting cancelled, elon's net worth apple, three trill that probably the most interesting thing would be taking a look at the live.

Blog outlook is very positive for stocks, but the removal of some accommodation for the global economy will be a major theme to watch. I mean this is so generic as we flip the calendar over many of the current market. Concerns are well known and have arguably been priced in that'd be interesting. I mean if, if you priced in the three rate increases and and if the market did, i should say rather than you that could be pretty bullish for stocks in 2022 here and look at this folks we're gon na we might hit.

We got three minutes and we might hit 1200 here uh on. Oh, we actually already did we bounced off 1200. You see that about 10 minutes ago. I wonder if we can break it, can we break it within, like the last two minutes, that'll be really cool.

I'm gon na see also it looks like roblox is inflecting up into the clothes that could this could be a kathy wood now never mind it's going to say there could be a cathy would buy. That's weird, the sparkline actually looked different there. Oh, no, i don't know what i was seeing: no sparkling's clearly going to oh, it's matterport, that's inflecting up, oh tiny, a little bit! Okay, yeah uh anything else. Anything else, faraday futures was that's way too thin trading to yeah some slight rotating down on some of the sparklines, but nothing huge.

This is very different from thursday, which i think is very it's a good sign that we're not seeing this uh insane drawdown at the end. Let me look at embraer quickly, etsy, before the close embraer's flat, etsy yeah. It's he's down four percent etsy's at the lows of the day right now, uh, and so is a farm yeah. Some of the online companies are actually closing at their bottoms of the day.

We were at 122 earlier in the morning they're on cloud. I did sell cloud out of these uh, not today it was a while ago, a week and a half ago or whatever uh anyway. Yeah, don't think we're gon na make it. We've got 40 seconds left and it looks like we're up against a really hard limit.

There on tesla, it's like the spy here spy looks like it's closing at its high for the day. I don't see any doubt. Oh, they were at 1200. Oh, it bounced right off.

12 again come on come on. You got 40 seconds test. So let's go past 1200 we've just hit 1200 like four times come on again again push it come on tesla, stop being a little there. It is it did it.

Let's go close close, close close. It turn it off what what a ripoff? What a rip? Oh! Come on man come on almost had it over 12.. Okay, uh dow jones is up 0.68 s p up point. Six four nasdaq ends one point: two up look at that end of the day rally there on the russell and the nasdaq folks, that's risk on right.

There, those bottom two nasdaq rust that's risk on uh it compared to uh the dow and the s p, they're uh up less, but but also still still doing well, wow uh, okay, yeah, so well little bummer there on on tesla the uh dow hit a record Close but uh tesla did hit 1284, but quickly drew down just in the last 10 seconds there that was uh. That was quite interesting, uh anyway, so this is amazing. We did, i mean we did not have a drawdown at the close. It is possible that now that december's behind us uh folks have cash and they are reallocating.

Now i don't like to get overly euphoric when, when things start going green because again, we've just had this so many times where stuff starts going green people get excited. They bye, bye, bye, bye, goes to euphoric levels and then boom. It's just u-turns. They slap you in the face and they just everything just falls and then it's like you know, everybody's complaining about being a bag holder uh, that's like the story of 2021.

Basically, just over and over and over again i mean today not a bad start to the year. You know some things are down there. There are some dip opportunities which honestly i get kind of sad when there are no dip opportunities. So there are plenty tip opportunities.

Uh plenty of things to go shopping for right now, yeah, nothing, uh, nothing, indicating that we are going to see a removal of this. This risk on trade starting tomorrow, we'll see it doesn't even have to be tomorrow. Who knows you can get rug pulled on on wednesday if you go into some small caps or whatever right now, but based on the trading activity i'm seeing today, i mean even arcturus. Look at that.

That rally here right into the close that was probably a kathy. Would buy, though, this little portion here uh yeah this? This is uh. This is exciting. Huh, okay, good! Well, look uh! My plan has has been to go all in by 2022..

I did uh, i i i i i'm in uh i i went into margin. I think i can tell you exactly what percentage i am. I have my a portfolio let's see here. Where is that? Why is it so hard to find? Oh there, it is okay, all right.

So here's where i sit right here, we're at and this was last updated as of the 31st, so i'll update that there we go so uh. This puts me at 10.12 margin. If you consider cash secured, puts what that means is uh. If, if my puts got exercised myself puts got exercise, i would actually be 18 in margin uh.

I could prevent that. Obviously, by by buying these contracts back uh, you know you, you take either a gain or a loss uh but yeah. That would my ultimate then margin would be somewhere in between the two here, just depending on how things move, but anyway, yeah somewhere between 10 and 18, depending on how you want to do the accounting for for puts is where i sit right now. This is, i don't want to exceed this.

Remember folks, uh i was uh in september. Was it september october, something like that went all in? We had a beautiful rally in november and during that rally i sold a ton of crap and went five mil cash just to sit there to go shopping. I spent all of it and then some uh, you know so uh yeah. I got ta work off some debt, no anyway, okay, so uh yeah, crypto's still burning here, huh, okay, it's reversing a little bit of a reversal here, but this is a solid draw down below.

We keep doing this. Look at that. That is almost a perfect lineup of what happened on new year's day or new year's eve. Rather, oh, my gosh that is so perfect hold on a sec hold on a sec.

That is a oh, my gosh. We got ta! Oh, oh, let's draw this. That is way too good. If this is true, okay, i'm gon na just make this teal for a second until i test it, but this looks pretty good right now.

So teal look at this. One hit two hit three hit. Four hit. Five hit six hit, that's liquidation, so it doesn't count uh and then, if we go any more beyond this it it's not really going to matter.

So much! Oh look over here! No! Okay! Sorry! I was. I was looking at this line. No, that that doesn't do anything over here. No, so it it hasn't, it hasn't worked in the past.

I don't know no, i mean, let's take the only. Let me go back to maybe like april. No, that was these original lines. So it's not it's not as resilient as what we had in april um.

No, it's not that good over here. It's only recently good okay, so that makes it a weaker line. That's all! Let's go back over here yeah, but but recently look at that on the 30 minute folks boom boom boom boom boom. That's that's pretty solid! Okay! Let's i'm gon na weaken that line a little bit, but i'm gon na watch that one that's a good one.

So the line appears to be 45 700, so you want, you know more recently. That seems to be the best time to buy. Somebody was asking me earlier, and i just think it's worth mentioning like why why why not buy when it's rallying, as opposed to when it's dipping - and you know i drew this really quick and i just think it's funny to mention, because i think it's obvious, but I mean maybe i'm wrong uh. My belief is that, if you're constantly buying where it's green uh, then then your portfolio return is probably as opposed to buying down here and buying the dip.

Your portfolio return. My expectation, based on the stocks that you're buying would should be less by some average of of of the difference between those two extremes and uh. That could be a lot. You know that could be an ex the difference of five to ten percent or something like that uh, maybe even more fifteen percent - something like that anyway.

That's why that's why we like buying the dip all right, how's uh? What else is going on here? Oh wow tesla's actually green in the after hours. Look at that 1206 in the after hours, let's oh five dollars to help me get out of margin. Why thank you? Let's see you i mean. Usually i don't like looking at the after hours, it's kind of entertaining to look at, but when it's so early, it's it's too soon to tell, but anyway it's exciting uh.

I look everything that i saw on the market today reiterates positivity for january, so i like it i'm happy and uh with that said. I wish you all the best. Thank you so much for being here and we'll see you in the next one get hold on. I got ta read this gesh vindick, okay limits limits to uh it's it's speed, limit, speed, limit, uh, geschwindi, kaitspe, grensong, of course, who reads this stuff, these german words better.

Yet who writes it all right folks see i never learned to read or write in german. So i have to read like a little like three-year-old, basically well, maybe like six year old, but anyway.