What's going on? guys, Welcome back to the channel. Appreciate you guys tuning in. Uh. Secondly, happy.

New Year Uh Market has started the new year with a gap up or the market is moving up currently. So pretty much what we know is the market has broken the 50 SMA Um, which happened right here. So this was the 50 SMA break up and then the retest. So ultimately, last week's last trading session, you can see the market at bottom.

Towards the end of the day. this red line here is a break of the 10. SMA This is a break of the 50 where momentum really picks up. This is the retest of the 50 SMA So the retest of the breakout and then that's the move off of it.

and now the market is just kind of hanging out and trending to the upside. Currently all right. Now when we bring over this screen here, we'll get some statistics behind the move. Okay, one second and zoom out a bit.

So this is what the S P 500 currently looks at: When taking into account one year statistical channels or statistical trend. The one-year statistical Trend says that the fair value is currently 371. that is where current S P 500 fair value is located and the overbought ranges of the S P 500 in Theory Start at this yellow right here and this yellow right here. Okay, in reality, the extremely extremely overbought levels would be this blue up here and this blue down here.

Very rarely you see that, but that's what really, really overbought or oversold is. Okay, So when we look at the one-year statistical probabilities, we're seeing that pretty much this was the most recent statistical breakdown. Okay, which is also why the support was created here and here and here. But ultimately, this was support.

In the past, this level was up here, but as we've moved down, the statistics have adjusted downwards. So now that's why the line is here. So Currently, this is your resistance in Statistics 389.53 So this would be a breakdown of that. This was pretty much a re-test try to break lows, could it? Now, we're just kind of doing this: rounding bottom into a previous breakdown so we could arguably see something like this and then down, or we would ultimately expect that the market would try to do that.

Then if it starts to maintain over the bias May flow. So for now, 389.50 3 is your statistical weekly resistance Yearly weekly resistance. Um, so pretty much what we're looking at for the day. Is this: where did That's odd, but okay, it was actually higher than I Thought that makes more sense.

Okay, and actually I did that wrong earlier. That was the breakout gotcha. So looking at this chart, here is your 9s of 10 SMA and this is your 50 SMA So pretty much the way the market would sit is you're not bearish on the market in terms of trend shift until you're below 382.. you could be bearish on the market in sense of supply and demand.

So if you watch charts and do something like this and you look for pretty much previous demand, let's just do like that and you look for previous Supply and then this kind of breaks down. you'll be like okay, somewhere in here is demand and then you'd be like okay somewhere This Top's okay. so that's going to be Supply blah blah blah blah. If you trade the market like that or you do things like that, then you could look for a selling attempt aside from a breakdown of the 50 SMA, but you would be trading a Supply in demand.

uh, rejection. whereas if when you listen to my video I say you're not bearish until you're below the 50 SMA That's because I'm considering truer Trend shift as opposed to just a rejection so you could say oh, you know, like let's just say this was supply All right. So we're going to get short here and then it goes down and then it gets to the 50 SMA and then it breaks. You could go okay.

I'm going to hold this longer because it appears that my rejection level has led to a trend shift. That's the kind of concept there that helps. All right. So next, uh, line of business is this.

um, pretty much the market has been giving multiple false signals, right? So we get a bullish cross here, pops up, fails. Then we get a bearish cross, goes down, and then ultimately come back up. We create a bull cross in here that then comes down, and then we get a bear cross, goes down a bit. Then we get a bull across, and that's because you're ultimately in consolidation right now.

You're just kind of going this back and forth fight. Okay, so whenever you're in a back and forth fight, moving average signals or moving average crosses generally don't work very well. Okay, they've created along the years many different indicators to try to help moving average Traders have less false signals, and that's by creating sort of a percentage filter where if the market does give across the market has to exceed a certain percentage from that specific Cross Point to actually validate, it's a true cross, All right. So over the years studies and technicians have tried to create different filters and indicators around moving averages to help prevent Traders from occurring losses or unnecessary losses or trades during moments of consolidation.

So there's things like that out there. But something that I do is simply just say to myself like this, if we had a bull cross and then like the next day we come down, or like the next day or two days later or something like that, we get a bear across. I Just say consolidation and then from there I Um, I Just expect it's going to be harder trading. Basically, if we're getting back to back opposing crosses in very short periods of time, you're like eight times out of ten going into consolidation.

So from there you can start to kind of Rebrand your mindset if you may or kind of change the way you're viewing the market in the short term. Um, to more of like consolidation back and forth swing High swing low. So in that case, it's going to be best to essentially take on momentum trades when you're breaking through the 50. So for example, let's just say we knew instantly that this was going to be consolidation.

We didn't even need to wait for the second cross, right? So if we knew that, that was going to be a consolidation moment and let's say we just take off the 10 SMA and just put up the 50. SMA Though you may not be catching your exact bottoms, right, essentially, this is what I'm talking about. This is a break of the 50. SMA leads to a pretty good rally.

Though you're not in on the bottom. Okay, break of the 50 SMA leads to a great short. You were not in on the top. Okay, you broke the 50 SMA On the long side here, right? So you went all the way up.

broke the 50 SMA here rejects. Then you start to kind of do this dance and chop. You need to be able to kind of recognize that and avoid that at your best. Okay, then ultimately it eventually gives away from the 50.

There's a trade. That one arguably, but could have been pretty pretty hard to get on. All right. And then you have a break of the 50 leads to a good trade.

There's a break of the 50 leads to a decent short break of the 50 leads to a great move. Because here we are today. Okay, so when you're in periods of consolidation, using the 50 SMA is sort of an above and below momentum level to trade off of can work well. if you're waiting for a cross during moments of consolidation, you're going to be late nearly every time.

And that is the whole concept of why people over the years have tried to make different studies and indicators to help in terms of consolidation when people rely or use moving averages as well. Okay, so that being said, pretty much the market hasn't quite created a bullish cross going into this New Year. Um, I'm kind of just watching and actually hold on. that's the 50th, Right down.

The 50s remains up here. So what I am doing right now is pretty much this. Let me get something set up here and then I'll pop it on. There's one there.

and okay, so pretty much what you should be watching. You know that's not entirely true because it can't Anyways, I'm just stopped. All right. So pretty much this is my support levels.

382 is right in this area. That's pretty much where I'd be interested in a dip. Um, there's levels that I'd be watching prior to that. but um, it's kind of hard to do it since the market doesn't show it here.

I mean I guess I could on there. Yeah, so like all I'm trying to say is like if you look at okay if you look at these two charts, okay, this one is the Spy and this is also the Spy But Trading View does not say that the market went all the way down to 381 here. Okay, whereas if you look at this one right, so think or Swim says we went to three to one. uh, Trading View does not.

So since we Dreamview does not say we went down here I can't anchor a Vo app to this location which would most likely provide you with that support. Um, but I could prop. Maybe it does. Maybe it doesn't But anyways.

um, bottom line is you're above the 50 SMA so until you're below it, you're not going to see bearish. Trend momentum shift down your current statistical resistance is going to be located at 389.53 Okay, and uh, your anchored V web up trending 50 SMA and not a 10 SMA break from uh, last trading session gives you support Trend at 382 areas which is pretty much the 50 SMA location. Okay, all right so that's pretty much it for today. And take care.

Have a great day.