What's going on? guys, Welcome back to the channel. appreciate you tuning in. So let's get into the charts because obviously we're on a bullish move here. Great bounds, good breakup, and I'm sure everyone is just wondering what's going on, so we'll cover that.

Alrighty, so we won't go into the whole reversal this that the other weekly levels because we kind of already hit home on that the other day. We'll touch on a little bit, but we won't go super in depth on that. Uh, but for those of you that have kept up on the channel and the videos the past couple days, you know very well that we talked about the markets reversing in basically the 420s. They pretty much anywhere from like this 422 down to 417 we were watching for long reversal.

Um, we more specifically talked about the market bouncing the long-term weekly V webs there, so we'll show those in a bit and it'll make more sense if you're not up to speed on that. So in short, what do we have here? Okay, we have the stock market. at least in the short term could lead to a longer term move. Doesn't matter, but just for now, in the shorter term, we have bottomed at 422 29.

Okay, we have bounced and we have created a new Buy Signal on our S P system. The Buy Signal happened yesterday at 11 o'clock or so into the 12 o'clock hour. So 11 30 hours. So this is 11 o'clock The market closes over the 30 minute 50 estimate.

Next 30 minute candle opens and essentially closes. Above breaks away. So essentially we're getting attempted by signal here. Okay with every Buy Signal the objective is to once you break over the 50 SMA and you create a Buy Signal it's to maintain over the 50 SMA going forward.

as long as it holds above you say Market trend is going up or Buy Signal is trying to be successful and move higher. So when we look at this chart and we'll go to a smaller time frame. Okay, this is how it would work initially. at 11 o'clock we break over the 50 SMA So this is going to be the buy Okay on the intraday perspective, we'll go and look at it on an intraday chart just to show you what it looks like right in that moment in time.

Okay, I'll go full screen. So right here that was the 50 SMA Okay, so this is where the 50 SMA was at when it broke over yesterday to start the day. It broke over here and you can see there was a bunch of long bias movement prior to that. But you also see once we kind of get to that point we kind of pick up in some more speed and keep rallying up.

This isn't the most important part of it, right? you know? Yes, we break over Cool. What you'll notice is that later on when we back test it and it and it dips a little below it. Sure, it's never always going to be totally perfect. we have other tools to help on those.

but anyways, as you can see, the break was here, right? So this was your break point starting to get long over the 50. But it was sloping down. so when the market did in fact come and back test it, it was not looking for support. Where it initially broke, it was looking for support much lower than that because again, the support is the 50 SMA And since it was trending downwards, the price of that 50 continued to decline throughout the day prior to the pullback, which ended up happening later.

So as the market pulls back late in the day, we break out at 11.. And as we come into the one o'clock two o'clock hour pm, you can see this is where we start to test the 50 SMA. So if we put a horizontal price point here when it tagged it, then we'll put one here and then that's pretty much the same and that's how we'll leave it right? So when we go, look at the one minute chart you will see and actually let's delete this first one. don't need that All right? So when you look at this chart later in the day, all right, these were That was the back test of support right there.

This little move right there and then you can see strong green candle up higher, low, hold above and push. okay then moving later in the day it kind of slumps back over 50 SMA POP Hold grind up later in the day comes back down to that same location pretty close to it. 50 SMA was a little lower, but we came down very close to it. Okay, then what ends up happening? Then you have the after hours session.

Okay, the Futures Market So watch what happens in the Futures Market. Okay, let's delete some of this stuff here. All right. The 50 SMA in relationship to the Um Futures Market would be right here is about four, three, three, zero.

So it's like right. It was actually right. A little higher than that, was right there. Sorry.

so this is where pretty much like right there. That's good. That's where the 50 SMA would be priced at. We're looking at the Futures Market.

So once the market closes and we can no longer look at the Spy because it's not really trading, the Futures markets run things, then we would flip to the Futures market and we would track where the price point of the 50 smas on the spy and then kind of correlate that to um, the Futures market so that after hours we can watch and see where the 50 SMA is at, is our uptrend still intact? So essentially that red line there. let's zoom in. Okay, this red line horizontal one. that's a 50 SMA.

So again, 11 o'clock Yesterday we break out 1 2 p.m area. We back test and bounce after hours. Market Close Futures Markets slide it all the way back down to the 50 SMA and slightly below. and then they recover it so uptrend is still intact right at that point.

Like right here, you could have stopped out because like, ah, maybe it goes into a downtrend. Don't know. You could literally stop out and then re-enter there Because again, once you're below it, it can go bearish. But once you're above it, it's bullish.

So it's below. It is bearish. Above it is bullish. So yeah, that's the aggressive style.

but just just in general, it's just. just aside from looking at that minuscule moment, just just zoom out and you just just say to yourself, we broke over. We're holding pullbacks above. Trend is up.

All right. That's that's the concept. So I don't want to get you all confused with bearish bullish bearish. Bulls But that's just pretty much it.

When you break over, you essentially look for Diplongs, right? and that's it. All right? So that was the back test of the 50. SMA after hours. So the market is bullish.

All right. That being said. Um, pretty much our targets right now on this day are going to be where we're at now. You just saw the market pop.

uh and I actually just posted about this on Twitter a while ago? Um, right here. So I post so much on Twitter You won't remember this but long break over the 50 SMA targets would be four, three, one, four, three, two area. These are the Fomc bare V webs that's assumed a break. So when I made that post to Twitter this morning, that's what the market looked like kind of Pop we were rolling over.

That's what it looked like, right? And so that post was 31 minutes ago. That's what it looks like actually I feel like it was longer than that. but whatever. Anyway, so says it's 31 minutes ago.

Oh, that makes sense. Whatever. I don't even know. It doesn't matter.

So yeah, so this is 31 minutes ago. So you know, three women's ago we're talking about hey, 432, 431, 50 or whatever that is. that's the Fomc bare B webs. That's our long Target for the break over the 50.

So in this picture, right here this yellow line that would be the break of the 50 Fomc bare V webs Target Etc All right. So when we go and look back at the chart uh, of trading View this is what it's going to look like right now. Again, you can see the pop into the bear Market Fomc View apps and you can see there's resistance happening there even in the post. I Talked about.

um, we assumed the break of the 50 and run up should be met with some hesitational resistance around the Fmcv web. So again, there's your pop into the V webs. You're getting Wicked down whether or not you want to. You say that that Wick Down is from people selling off the up move and taking profit or whether it's people trying to short into the Fomc V webs doesn't really matter.

Um, regardless, it's in an up move. The Fomc V Ups were targets. so again, we're in an uptrending move and along the way you're gonna hit levels that are gonna have some resistance. They can pull the market back.

Uh, you know, a little bit or a lot of it and you know that's always kind of a little bit of an unknown. Um, but you have these areas of value and interest that you know exist and so that's what that is. So right now I I would be long biased the market, but I would not be like long entry the market in this moment in time and the reason why is it's just kind of like like are we really gonna break these View apps out and continue ripping off a gap up? Maybe I Think it's more likely to kind of like just like dick around here, not really provide a huge long move initially. like maybe fight a bit, pull back some, and then later when we break these, we'll have a big move.

So I will be looking for a break out of these, but it's like is it really ready right now or do we need a little relax? come back later, then break them and I'll tell you right now, when we break these V-waps the target is going to be I'll do both of them but just to Zone it out. but I'll tell you what the target will be and it's guaranteed it. Literally, it's not No. I mean I Don't want to say guaranteed but it just shut up Connor Just give them the targets all right.

So the next long Target you see that yellow View app I was going to say that yellow view app but it doesn't really matter I Mean when you break these guys out Yes, that yellow Vape web would also be Target but it would also be these purple ones. It would be the squeeze of this. so we're kind of the law. The logic here is that was the Fomc breakdown and sell-off.

So we assume that if and when the market successfully breaks out these V-waps it then has the potential. I Don't say guaranteed. It has the potential to then squeeze all the way back to 435 and 438 because everyone who is short this Market from the Fomc day, they're now underwater, right? Their average price point is right now. so everyone who's been Bearer So so think about someone shorts the S P 500 or someone who shorted the Futures Market literally at the top of that day and then think about everybody who shorted the next day and then everyone who bought options and were short.

So just in general, that entire move from Fomc till this current date and time has put everyone's volume weighted average price so everyone who's been participating everyone. cumulative volume participation on the Spy It's all right at 4 31 432 in relationship to the start date of Fomc. So Go. So go back to F1c that date and time all that volume.

it's compressed and it's right there right now. So when you flip that, it's kind of like what's the inverse. The inverse would be 435-ish 438, right? Um, which is also back to this yellow view app. And this yellow view app is our main sell signal V Web, right? So this red one here, that's our main cell signal V web.

So it would be our expectation that when and if we break out the Fomc view apps which I wouldn't think would be today I would assume it's another higher low something something like that, but you never know. Some crazy happens. Um, so if we break the Fomcv laps and we squeeze all the way to here, we're sure 100 I could tell you right now we're gonna short that top. Okay, I Know that if we get up to here, we won't be in a Buy Signal I Know we're not going to be below the 50 SMA but the only times you overrule the 50 SMA is when you know you're at an extreme oversold level.

so it should reverse or an extreme overbought level and it should sell back down and then like, like right here. this oversold Bounce It could have bounced and not gone into a Buy Signal and then rolled back over, but it was at such a low risk. Value Point That even if it went to the 50 and rolled over, there was still a lot of money to make on that bounce. Whereas if it wasn't oversold and we're like right here, it's like why would I buy that for about there's not a lot of profit, blah blah blah.

So as long as you know it's really oversold or really overbought or you had a really really good level that's going to have strong resistance or strong support. Those are the only two instances when you can override the 30 minute 50. SMA Like for example, we broke the 50 SMA yesterday at 11 o'clock. So imagine if at 11 o'clock yesterday it broke over and then you went short and then you went short and then you went short and then it started to drop more.

You're like I'm gonna hit more short and then what happens we Gap you up overnight because we just went into an uptrend. So if you don't even know that we just went into an uptrend yesterday at 11 o'clock and you're short in the market and you get squeezed up this morning, that's why I mean yeah you go. Oh well, there was a flag pattern and I should have looked for the flag pattern and oh this and maybe there was news and Jay Powell's wife is pregnant. Whatever.

it doesn't even matter, right? We don't even care. All we know is that we went into an uptrend yesterday at 11 o'clock So instead of being short, we're gonna start trading Lawn and whoever else wants to short be my guest. but you're gonna. you are the one that gets blown out.

Now you could have been shorting and then it could have broke back down and you could have one. And that sometimes happens, but the majority of the time that won't happen. So when you go into an uptrend or you even start to possibly go into an uptrend, you just start going bias long. And if you end up being wrong, that's fine, right? So targets for the Fomc breakout is going to be like 435 areas, maybe a little more.

Like we said into the the 436 is 437s. But pretty much as soon as we get close to 435, you're closing this this long. Move this bottom. this whole thing when you get to 435 I Can almost guarantee this thing is gonna get just whacked again.

Now it might not lead us to a bigger, uh, downtrend, uh, new sell signal, but it's for sure gonna provide a short shower. Short, uh, a short opportunity? it should. Um, I'm gonna do it. Um, and the only reason I know to do that is because I've learned it from the past and and the logic behind this of why we be confident at least doing like a top tick short here and in the zone is because if you look at how strong the cell move has been right? So we topped here, went into a sell signal here and you see this red view app, the initial one, the main one.

We have never broken that like not that we've never broken, we just again we haven't broken it and we've been in a strong downtrend since that point. That sell signal right? So we assume that once we get into a Buy Signal it's likely that we're going to go back and retest that previous sell signal main V Web right? So the logic would be big Sell signal Huge Trend down New Buy Signal Go retest previous sell signal right? So it's kind of like, um, you know if you just think about opponents and enemy and Market participation, this is a bear. They just had a huge Trend down. This is a bull now entering the market.

the bowl is going to go fight the previous bear and that's where he's located. Now this was a strong bear. Look at how big he was. That's a big.

That's a big old grizzly bear. Oh that's all. Thick boy. A lot of hair on that neck though, right? Big old furry boy.

So do you think that this Buy Signal that's just now happening is going to be strong enough to start all the way down here? Go into a Buy Signal go all the way to here previous Big Bear and then break out that too. No, you'd assume low risk value bounce turns to buy signal rips all the way up into the previous big old furry bear. He's gonna give you another good whack and then maybe later. you.

You beat him. But this guy was a two-week Like, it's like a two and a half week. the bad bear. and now we're coming off a one and a half day.

Bowl right? The one and a half two day bowl is Not Gonna Bake Not gonna take out that two-week bear. Okay, that's the logic, right? So anyways, we'll stop it there. That's enough. Cheers! Love you guys! See you in the next one.