What's going on, guys, welcome back to the channel. Appreciate you tuning in yesterday I made a really good thread on Twitter and I Want to kind of, you know, skim through a little bit of that with you guys here today because it was a really really great thread and it goes over in real time. All of these trades and what you should be looking for before it all happens and so it's just a really really cool thread. so if you follow me on Twitter Awesome! Highly suggest you read that if you haven't.

If you don't follow me on Twitter and you have account, maybe go check it out or don't. but I'm going to go through some of it here with you guys even if you're not on like social media which if you're not, that's amazing good for you, should just stay off it anyways. Um, so I'm gonna run through this thread as quickly as I can trying to point out mostly important stuff. but I think it's really beneficial if you also read it yourself.

So whether you want to pause this video and kind of read more of it, um, than what I'm doing. So first thing, uh, this, this is the start of the threat. We're entering the Oh, basically I'm no longer bearish to market for the next few weeks. I'm changing buys see if we bounce still see a little lower but we are entering this Market better bounce quote or we may need to question the reality of the Bullpup the Bull Pop.

Kind of like the the reversal we had in the bull market and it's kind of going up right? So this was yesterday at 144. let's take a look at this picture. You kind of see I mapped off the Do or Die zone. That zone is basically 422 to uh, like 420.

Almost All right. And the reason we're talking about that is because that's where this weekly zones at and there's more things we'll get into. But just specifically in this picture. we have two weekly View apps there.

so one of them's the the Weekly Bear Market breakout from 2022 View app and the other one's a weekly support continuation view app. So blah blah blah blah. you're coming into some support levels there. Okay, all right, let's move down.

Um, try to get to uh, some of the good stuff here. Um, so yesterday Let's see we are coming all right. So here's a good post right? we are coming down into extremely important double weekly. Zone Thus, if we don't bounce here, it raises a bigger concern for the market that Weekly Zone which is the Do or Die Zone here and that 422 area weekly View app that's we're talking about.

that Weekly zone now becomes a big over under watch. We are looking for either a V reversal or an accumulation diplong. So as the market comes into those V apps and basically into this Gap that we'll get into in a second, we're looking for a V reversal or accumulation dip lawn. All right.

Kind of continue down and start talking about. You know some things you can be looking at extra things then I start talking about already grabbing a little long down there. Um, again, just tiptoeing into the market because I'm probably early if anything. Um, so just talking about getting in some long starting to bind to the weekly Zone down there.

Um, now if you're changing bias, what should you look for, right? So if we're thinking the Market's going to bottom, it's going to bounce here. we're going to move upwards right? What will we start looking for? You'd start checking things like momentum and Divergence and RSI and stochastics and you're looking at other multiple time frames. Okay, so you could go. hey.

I Think we're going to bounce? Well, is the volume in your favor? Is momentum in your favor? RSI Macd trending in the positive manner. higher highs, higher low closed captioning not available. Um, continue down. Talking into standard error.

Now, before this was standard deviation statistics, this is standard error statistics. Looking at standard error, the market was creeping to almost the blues. The blues you could see start probably around like 420 or so. The blue would be negative.

three. So the market is trading negative three standard deviations away from the mean. So statistically speaking, there's like a 99 chance of a balance. Not totally perfect, so take that with slight grain of salt.

But that's kind of like the easiest way of me describing that sometimes so high high value balance area in those Blues Um, so we're getting close to that, then number four, five, whatever number we're on coming into weekly V Web supports All right. So those are the weekly View app supports this view app though you can't see it in the picture. that was the all-time high in 2022. The Bear Market V-wap that's what kind of created the bear or the bull market break out here.

So this is a back test of the V web that created the Bull Market breakout. So this whole breakout and run scenario. A lot of it derived from this breakout. That being over the view app, we have fallen back down to that view app.

Therefore, this would be a retest of that breakout view app kind of situation. Okay, the current sell signal we're on. So again, we're below the 50 SMA 10 below 50, blah blah blah. That's a sell signal down.

Right now we're in a cell signal, not a Buy Signal Um, if you look at the Fibonacci sequence the way that I would use a Fibonacci particularly on this sell signal I Use them in different ways and other people use them many, many different ways. you know? So someone might look at this and go. this is so wrong or not the right way to use it. Believe me, there's all sorts of ways to use it.

Fibonacci levels will all hit at some point in time and have value there and you'll see like meaning there. Um, but the better way of saying is that this is not the most common way to do a Fibonacci Actually, they're You know the logic behind why I do it and where I do it? Honestly, most people would would never. Maybe most people wouldn't think to be doing it that way. And the only reason is because we're using a Fibonacci to track a cell signal right? So it's not like the typical rules of Fibonacci where you take a specific high low swing which most people would do right.

This is taking a Fibonacci of a sell signal which is a break below a specific SMA and then a re-break of another SMA and those two algorithm points you're talking to. So this tennisame break, you know, computers algorithms are always talking right? So this right here? that 10 SMA break. That's an algo talk, right? That is for sure an algo signal, right? You can see as soon as you break through it. It kind of gets that little volatility pop.

So not that you as a Trader on the retail side or even you know a big boy, it doesn't matter. It's not that that necessarily is signaling you to take any action in the media, but that is being recorded in a data sample somewhere to some algorithm in the stock market. Probably many, right? And so when we add our Fibs there, it's like we're adding and starting to kind of talk to the same points that Algos would for sure be talking to. so one being here back there.

Etc And so this is going to give us the Fibonacci sequence of this current cell move, which suggests that the end of the move would be 421s 419s. So we got down to 422 very close. You're coming into a very, very very oversold. Um Zone just based off of current Fibonacci cycle attached to the cell signal.

All right. Um, next thing. Um, those are all great reasons for bounces or reversals. But until a market accepts a reversal like your momentum indicators are assigned Macd, they won't show positive uptrend right.

So to find reversal points, you have to find Value points, right? Um, and that kind of goes hand in hand with indicators are kind of lagging and it's true to a degree they are lagging. Um, not that they're not helpful, but yes, they are lagging in many ways. And that's because momentum indicators can't tell you anything that hasn't already happened. So therefore, if you're looking for a reversal like we were yesterday as a market was coming down to the 422 area, there wouldn't be any signs of momentum or indicators like that favoring your decision to want to be long because you're the market hasn't reversed.

So until it reverses, those indicators can't track momentum up. And if there's no momentum going up, then the momentum indicators are going to show down right? So you'd have to find specific value opportunities that would convince you the Market's going to change. And that's what happened yesterday around the 422s. Okay So that being said, Uh, yeah.

That being said, we were kind of doing a reversal right? So then we go through and we just look at volume and basically says, I'll bear it all Bear at all Bears, blah blah blah. Then we start looking at the uptrends. just for fun. This is a weekly.

We're above the 50. So the weekly is uptrending. Uh, the daily. We're below the daily 50..

So the daily is down trending the four hours below the 50. So it's downturning. But again, the four hour and the daily are very similar. Uh, so again, if the daily was downtrend, you'd expect the four hours downtrending.

Anyways, the 30 minute. The 30 minute is our buy and sell signal. um, time frame. So again, once we break below the 30, that's bearish.

and we're not going to really be long long bias aggressively until we reclaim it. All right? So until we get back over the 50, SMA, we're not going to expect that the market is Trend up. Then we go into the 10 minute. The 10 minute is below the 50.

you can see that 10 minutes down trending all right. And then we go into a five minute. You'll see that the five minute is still down trending all right. Then we go to a one minute.

You'll see that the one minute actually kicked into an uptrend here. All right. So one minute goes into an uptrend. That breakout on the one minute allows the five minute to break the 50.

Therefore, the five minutes starting to enter an uptrend. The uptrend on the five minute allows for the market to come up and well. I Don't know if I actually caught it, but now we'd be looking at the 10 minutes. so the 10 minute still below the 50.

And that's how fractal Market movements work Again, If an uptrend is going to start, obviously a one minute would start up running, then a five minute would start, and then a 10 minute and then a 30 minute, etc. etc. So at any point these little uptrends in the one minute or five minute, they can fail. Remember our these are all low time frame uptrends taking place in a bigger 30 minute sell signal.

So just because you see a one minute or five minute up trending, um, you still have to realize that you're 30 minutes down trending, right? So like you have bigger Trends down while fighting smaller uptrends, right? So um, so yeah, that was. Um, that was a lot of yesterday's action. So that's so a lot of what you kind of just saw there. all those talking points, right? That's what kind of led us to believe there would be a market bounce yesterday.

Uh, at some point or that maybe over the next couple days we would. I didn't even think we were going to just reverse right away I Kind of thought we'd go through an accumulation bottom first, but um, you know, the market. Uh, the market is V-reversed so it's pretty cool. all right.

So today I actually had a target of going to 428.70 which clearly that is not going to hit based off this formation, we kind of had a little mini breakout didn't really work and that's okay, um, you know. So I do want to talk about that because I've been on Twitter this morning talking about going to 428.70 and it really is a really good price Target But I Got to admit based off the way this is moving that Target's going to be off now. we're going to be wrong about that Target but still write about overall trend. So um, uh again, if we look at the 50 SMA this chart's busy I'll go back to here.

The 50 SMA is priced at 428 70s. Okay, so ideally what we would be trying to do is we would be trying to take this market up to 428.70 But remember, until we're over 428.70 we haven't turned into a Buy Signal So therefore, this big balance we're seeing off some weekly value points has bounced back up to the downtrending resistance. So ideally it would have been cool to get to 428.70 because we would have completed the long back up to the downtrend resistance. Um, so again, we're still in a sell signal and until we maintain over 428.70 we haven't turned into a true Buy Signal So that's why you know if you go and look at my Twitter this morning which I'm going to have to make an apology here because when you get to 428.70 but um, let's see one second I Start this morning by going and saying let's see made a couple posts good morning We are still in a sell signal, but today it seems very likely to at least test the sell signal.

So Market probably going to test 50 SMA 428.70. today's first initial trade around would be try to get the 50 SMA and price of the market to interact and kiss to 50 SMA So ideally from that point we are trying to I'm just going to bring this chart over. We're trying to push the market to there. That's what we've been trying to do this morning is push the market here to at least uh, retest our down trending resistance right.

and then let's see I will go on and say you see that V web That view app is really where the breakout if we're going to run to it should start. So red view up here occurring pre-market resistance 50th May Long Target play when if Market breaks over power blah blah blah. All right then we kind of go into this before everyone starts slamming Longs Remember we're still not in a Buy Signal so we could pop to the 50 SMA and sell right back off. That's me understanding and knowing from past experience that just because there's a really good balance taking place if you're below the 50, SMA you can bounce right into it and sell right Back off Everyone this morning and yesterday is getting extremely bullish for the market thinking I believe a lot of people are getting Market thinking that we're just all of a sudden going to turn into some new crazy uptrend and it could have happened and I was kind of leaning on hey I would love to see it happen but at the same time I know the risk.

The risk is hey, we could pop to the fifth yes Ma and sell right Back off. We could pop to the fifth SMA and create a Buy Signal to Marble Nobody knows for sure. Either way, looking for 50 SMA and price action interaction today. so we're emphasizing that again, we're still in a sell signal.

Um, in that? Uh, yeah. so we're still in a sell signal and that You have to. You have to be understanding of that. The market will not start up trending until excuse me I'm on the wrong chart here.

Sorry. The market will not uptrend until we get a new Buy Signal which would be over that 50 SMA which again is I Don't know one of these charts. Let me get my trading view chart. There we go.

Boom, right? So until we get over again, a price of 428 I should just do it on this one down here now. right there until we get over 428.70 The Market's still in a downtrend. So what would actually probably be interesting today is tracking the 30 minute low here. So this is probably where they would attempt to even higher low the market.

So um, we could still potentially curl this up on a higher low and then pop the market. And so that makes sense right there. You can already kind of see where the Market's been trying to support So Ideally, this becomes our lower high support Zone today. Therefore, once the market gets below that can the bad.

So as long as the market doesn't break down that then it won't truly roll over. Um, so we kind of have a market that's between like 424.82 to 424.36 and as long as that holds support, we could still curl it. If we start to get below this area, it'd be best just to basically be hands off back to bearish kind of deal. Um, but anyways, yeah, that's pretty much where we're at today.

still in a cell signal, still waiting for a Buy Signal But we've sold down into value areas, which yesterday was 422 so we did a V reversal yesterday, but we're unable to break up and even test the 50. SMA So far doesn't mean it won't happen and we still have value points all the way down into say 420. So again, we've been on this really big downtrend for some time I Didn't think we would do a V reversal and then like flip right into a Buy Signal I assume we would see accumulation bottom. so if we kind of pop and then we drop a little bit and chop down here for some more time before actually kind of reversing the market.

That would have made and does make the most sense to me because once you're in a strong uptrend or downtrend for so long, it's really hard to reverse that market like on one go. It usually is going to take some battling like pop up, sold down, higher, low pop up, fail and it usually chops around for a little bit before it actually does that so. but anyways, take care, have a great day and I'll catch you in the next one. All right.