Hey everyone we kevin here, so we finally have a time frame for when we might hear that jerome powell is getting replaced from joe biden. This is very big. This is very important and we have a time frame for this now. This is going to be important for the stock market and potentially real estate as well.

I'm going to give a few updates first, though, on some updates regarding and what's happening in, the marketplace and the economy uh and then move into the federal reserve. So first walmart was really a bellwether here and walmart. I don't think people were expecting walmart to beat as well as they did with high profit margins, despite inflation, certainly margin pressures but still sales doing really well retail sales. Up this week, industrial production up this week rents housing confidence ev.

All the indicators of growth in our economy are actually booming. Right now, i shouldn't maybe say all indicators, but a lot of the indicators that we got this week. Aside from the inflation numbers that we got last week very, very strong and sure, while we're seeing issues with inflation and supply chain crises, walmart's a really good, tell and they're seeing supply chain issues and shipping issues and constraints begin to ease. We also had an executive, a former executive from macy's, mentioned that, even though a lot of individuals pre-purchased a lot of things that they were expecting to get shipped for the holidays, there are now expectations that consumers might have spent money once in september and october, in Preparation for the holidays, but now might be tempted to spend again in november and december, because overall, household wealth and household savings are at elevated levels and people are willing to spend people feel good, especially with the stock market soaring, which it's been doing like crazy right.

Now people feel even richer and more likely to spend. In my opinion, this is the perfect time to kind of look inward and go. How can i start raising cash? How can i spend less money? How can i be prepared for the next dip opportunity, because i personally don't like chasing the market when it's going up? I spent six months buying the dip during the crisis we had earlier in the year, but i have to say in terms of the indicators that we've gotten so far this week: uh industrial production, retail sales, consumer confidence, consumer spending, the earnings reports that we're seeing yeah We're seeing lingering effects and, in some cases, large effects of inflation and supply chain issues, but they're, really starting to get put by the wayside and really the stock market is starting to represent a more efficient future for companies. Look at end phase end phase going from 145 to 250.

This is one of my largest holdings. That's nuts, it's insane, but it's potentially because people were bagging on end phase because of supply chain issues now we're starting to see them ease, so the stocks run. It makes a lot of sense, an end phase, very, very high margin business. Now it's got a nice multiple attached to it, but boy, oh boy.

This is a profitable and sexy energy play as well love, end phase, but anyway uh. It's worth noting that - and this hasn't happened yet, but a lot of economists are expecting that we might actually be bumping q4 uh gdp figures, uh and estimates, and and that these bumps could actually further support the stock market rallying uh so and we're seeing a lot Of euphoria right now, which you always want to have a little grain of salt when you get a lot of euphoria uh, because uh that sort of euphoria can definitely u-turn very quickly upon bad news. For example, janet yellen today mentioned that we are going to run out of money between december 3rd and december 15th if congress doesn't essentially pass the debt ceiling again and deal with the budget deficit again uh, so you've got two things expiring again: the debt ceiling's going To get hit and we're uh going to end up dealing with a government shutdown again at the beginning of december, if we don't get another bill passed through congress and now, of course, congress specifically, the house of representatives are planning on passing a new. Well, they build back better plan they're still working on the framework of this, though, which is crazy, because they've been working on the framework for this on this forever and they don't have that much time left before.

In december, we've got 11 days until black friday, which remember that's. When the courses linked down below have another price increase, the price will be going up at 11, 59 pm black friday evening, it's friday evening at 11, 59 pm so get in before that black friday sale ends, use coupon code black friday for the programs, i'm building Your wealth link down below get some incredible feedback. You can check out as well go to mattkevin.comchat, that's the discord and you can check out some of the amazing feedback that has been posted. There very honest feedback that people post uh every day.

People are posting different feedbacks, so check that out, but anyway uh folks. The stock market is rallying right now in confidence and uh. We're worried that there are things that could derail. It's like the debt ceiling and the budget deficit.

These negotiations, although we probably won't see those pressures until we actually get into december, maybe after the thanksgiving and black friday holiday and then we'll kind of also be nervous about okay, how good were sales and right now we're expecting those sales to be really really good. Now we could end up seeing a buy. The rumor sell the news where people are buying the rumor on sales being really good and we end up having a sell-off after the black friday and cyber monday holiday or cyber monday week. However, but i think probably the big thing, if anything that is going to shake up the market a little bit over the next four days is the potential announcement as to whether or not drone power will be replaced or not.

Now, if you look at predict it, we've got leo brainard having about a 35 chance of replacing jerome powell. If you look at uh betfair, they have another website. On the betting odds, her odds of actually replacing drill power fell substantially today, but these websites, you can't really put a lot of money into them. Uh they're, they're, smaller, so some some individuals say like.

Ah you know: okay, you get smaller bets in here. That kind of prevents certain whales from coming in and making big bets or outsized bets. But overall it seems like the market's pricing in a less than 50 percent chance that we're going to have lyle brainard. As a chairwoman of the federal reserve, uh and the market has, i think, started rallying a little bit since we first heard that jerome powell could get replaced a few days well, probably last week or roughly last week, and the reason we've seen a little bit of A rally from what it was initially a little bit of a panic.

The market turned right at the beginning of last week because of concern over jerome powell getting replaced because of the uncertainty of okay. Well, what? If we get somebody else and and what, if they start raising rates and what, if you know, basically they end the taper faster and they raise rates, i mean think about somebody like bullard bullard's, a hawk. He wants to end the taper in q1 and start raising rates in q1 of 2022 to rein in inflation. Now i did a full thesis yesterday on the implosion of the federal reserve.

I highly recommend you watch it because i show two scenarios: one scenario where the federal reserve is entirely wrong and they have to panic, react and the recession that could create and another scenario where the federal reserve is right. You should watch those, so you can watch for the signals that show you which path we're on very, very good video, just type into youtube, meet kevin implosion of the federal reserve, but uh. We now have a time frame for when we're expecting to hear whether or not a drone power is going to get replaced and, according to joe biden, an answer is expected within the next four days, which means by friday. We are expecting an answer on whether or not jerome powell will be replaced.

Now. The good news is the current expected alternate to uh. Jerome powell would be lyle, brainerd brainerd. If she ends up getting the nomination.

Surprisingly, the market is kind of okay with it. So far, we've got uh bloomberg. Analysts we've got economists, we've got barons. A lot of folks saying that lyle brainard is, is essentially just like jerome powell.

We're not expecting much of a difference at all and really we shouldn't expect much of a market hit. If anything. She might even be slightly more dovish than jerome powell, which means more cheap money for longer. She also believes in the strength of the economy, but doesn't quite believe that we're at full employment yet and believes that we still need to be supportive of the economy.

Because the last thing we want to do is end up taking away support and then all of a sudden when temporary inflation goes away their version of temporary inflation. This is their version. Okay, if their version of temporary inflation goes away because supply chain constraints evaporate, which we've kind of already started seeing happen, started happen, still problems but started happening with walmart and other companies. Then then, then, then, the last thing the fed wants to do is pull the rug out on a market.

That's in an economy, that's actually weakening, because prices are starting to go down, we're starting to see the potential for deflation right so uh. They don't want that. To happen so deflation deflation gets bad because then you get deflationary spirals where basically people stop spending money, because they're they're worried that. Well, why would i spend money now? It's like the opposite of what happens with inflation right if you're worried about deflation, then you're thinking well, prices are going to be less in the future, so i'll just save my money and not spend well.

If you don't spend the velocity of money falls and economic growth, our economic engine falls substantially. Every dollar you don't spend is five dollars that aren't circulating around in the economy, which is bad. The government and the federal reserve want people spending money. This is why we started this video out with yay.

Consumers are spending now i don't think it's a good idea to spend that much money, but hey i'm not in control of all consumers, so they want to spend money like crazy, hey go for it whatever. So we should know within the next four days, uh keep in mind again uh. If you have inflation, you also tend to see people per moving up their purchases, which is kind of what the executive uh the former executive for macy's was saying on cnbc earlier today. He's suggesting that hey look, you know, people expect inflation, so they buy stuff earlier because they think prices are going to be higher in the future and then that future point comes around and they say like well, i've already bought.

So i don't need to buy again. That's what they say, but the reality is they end up spending twice they buy both times, which is uh kind of crazy, but also really good for stocks and uh and people buying stuff so uh. Overall, this is very bullish. I'm not nervous about the federal reserve.

Pick anymore uh - and this is mostly because of the research that i put together in yesterday's video uh, but also now this time frame, i'm not very worried about it. I actually think once this announcement comes it'll kind of be a sigh of relief like from the markets and if anything we could actually push higher, i think probably the biggest negative catalyst would be terrible, misses for uh black friday and cyber monday sales that that would Be very bad: we tend to get that data very quickly and then some form of a congressional disaster at the beginning of disaster, beginning of december, because of uh, the debt ceiling and uh budget crisis and potentially a government shutdown. Those periods of uncertainties are great times to buy the dip. It's it's like.

It always gets solved, it's so stupid and even if it doesn't just buy the div, it's like oh best time to buy so i'd rather wait for that and kind of hope for a little bit of panic. So that way, i can uh by the dip, because right now, this very little dip, with the exception of certain companies that have just unfortunately, uh been been casted aside as as not very sexy in the market, and - and i think this really has to do with What a thesis that i came up with a few days ago - and this is just a total thesis - this does not mean it's right at all, but the thesis i came up with is the concentration of stocks and the thesis kind is easily more easily visually represented And this is, in my opinion, what the stock market looked like in uh 2010. Maybe when i started investing and in 2010 you you had sort of very very dispersed investments uh, but because of social media i feel like you're getting and this sort of momentum, movement. You're getting a lot more of a concentrated market and i think that's why you get these incredible moves of traders, blowing up and and ridiculously moving valuations for companies like lucid and rivian, when they should by no means be that high that they're that high, because they're Going up and when stocks are going up, obviously people can buy more, which is very stupid because uh, it ultimately means you're, increasing your risk right, the the the higher you go, the harder you fall right, the more you go up, the more potential energy you have To crash, which turns into kinetic, as you start deflecting down, we see that all the time with momentum, movers so just be very, very careful, uh, concentrating and buying, as things are running running running.

This is why i like buying the dip finding support levels and buying safely, and if you want more of my kind of insights and thoughts and theses, do check out the stocks and psychology money program linked down below use that black friday coupon. You can bundle up as well. Most common bundles are two and five specifically the stocks and real estate. Investing group bundle.

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